Increasing resilience through co-creation in a coastal urban region: dealing with climate change impacts and land-use development in a scenario process

Sonja Deppisch

HafenCity University HamburgResearch Group Global Change & Land-Use Strategies

1

Coastal Cities Network Symposium, 11th April 2016, Portsmouth, UK

1. Intro: Research Setting

2

Disciplinary topics – 7 single-disciplinary

driven research topics, variety of methods

Strong interdisciplinary research –

common research questions, boundary

object , conceptual bridge of social-

ecological resilience thinking & case

studies

Transdisciplinary

collaboration (Van de

Ven & Johnson 2006) with

urban region of Rostock

(Germany) – prospective

scenario planning process

1. Intro: Research Setting

3

Rostock region: Coastal urban region (Baltic Sea) – deal with climate

change impacts and other drivers – future land-use development

Climate change impacts to expect:• Floods, storm surges

• sea-level rise

droughts & sand storms

• drinking water problem

2. Conceptual bridge: resilience

4

Based on Social-ecological resilience notion1 & land-use planning as deliberative act =>

capacity of an urban region to absorb internal and external stimuli and their complex effects and to reorganise itself in order to maintain, manage and deliberately advance or even transform essential social and ecological functional and structural properties while undergoing change

Emphasis on social-ecological interdependencies, non-linearity, complexity & uncertainty, surprising events

learn to live with change

adopt a corresponding perspective in everyday administrative and planning practices

question paths taken & taking into account potential transformations (Albrechts2010)

----1) Berkes et al., 2003; Carpenter et al., 20052) Davoudi 2012

3. Co-creation – scenario planning process

5

I Definition of the

subject

II Identification of

key factors

III Analysis of key

factors

IV Development of

scenarios

V Transfer of

scenarios

Spatial development 2050Decision-making within the transdisciplinary process

Key factors of spatial development

Identifying key factors within the transdisciplinary process

Workshop 1

„Key factors for the future“

Discussion of alternative future developments

Interdisciplinary process within plan B:altic

· Evaluation of results of the first workshop

· Relevance and interactions between key factors

· Interactions between key factors and climate change

· Translation into scenarios (computer-based)

· Result: Four consistent scenarios

Transdisciplinary process

· Discussion of scenarios

· Revision of scenarios

· Selection of scenarios for the second workshop

Workshop 2

„Scenarios as images of the future“

Discussion of scenarios

Interdisciplinary process within plan B:altic

· Evaluation of results of the second workshop

· Revision of scenarios

Transdisciplinary process

· Decisions concerning the third workshop

Workshop 3

„Climate change adaptation strategies“

Development of measures and strategies

2010: Kick–off Workshop =>

mixed practitioners-

scientists working group

established

2011–2012: 3 main

Workshops with broader

participation

Joint analysis of situation,

key drivers of land-use

development

Discussion of variety of

potential alternative future

developments

Development of strategies

and measures resilient to

different future scenarios

6

Sea level rise

Extreme weather

events

Changes in

precipitation

Water

Increase in

temperature

Development and

quality of free

areas

Agriculture and

forestry

Harbor and

maritime

economy

Tourism

Demographic

structure

Housing

Retail and

industry

Transport

infrastructure

Relationship

urban-rural

Energy policy

Financial situationPolicy priorities

European

Union Legal

instruments

Weak

Medium

Strong

Relevance for spatial

development

3. Scenario process: Drivers and interdependencies

7

3. Scenarios: Drivers and their potential paths

3. Scenario process: generating scenarios

8

Spatial development in the Rostock Region

Key factor A Key factor B Key factor C

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario ...

A.1 A.2 A.3 B.1 B.2 B.3 C.1 C.2 C.3

Key factor ...

… ... ...

3. Scenario process: resilient development

9

4. Results & Discussion

10

What brought this resilience-based approach to planning practice at the urban

and regional scale?

Results & Discussion

11

Which challenges brought this complexity- & resilience-based approach to the planningpractitioners?

A) „Living with uncertainty“ : transfer to daily practice?

Scenario process => Transfer => Daily working routines

Discussed many potential developmentpaths, interdependencies, dealt with manyalternative future land-use developments, uncertainty and surprising events

Need for more climate change data, moreanalyses, reference to existing practices and pastsolutions, tendency to deal only with the mostlikely scenario

Huge information load => Risk to overburden participants

Software tool and scenario generating process – black box

Additional financial / personal resources needed

B) Overburden practice / participants

C) Not designed as norm generating processrather as discourse among experts – too much expected ?

Results & Discussion

12

What were crucial framework conditions which might have influenced the up-take ofresilience thinking?

• Backed by research funds: financial and personal resources

• Process out of daily routines

• Political backing of the process

• Disciplinary background of participants from practice + / - (easier to grasp for ecologists, lessfor coastal engineer?)

13

Team :

Dr.-Ing. Sonja Deppisch, Landscape and Spatial

Planning

Peter Wibbeling, M.A. European Studies

Simone Beichler, MSc. Environmental Management

Bart Jan Davidse, MSc. Spatial Planning

Dr. Meike Othengrafen, Spatial Planning

Michael Richter, Geoecologist

Luise Schulz, M.A. Sociology

Until 9/2013:

Dr. M. Hagemeier-Klose, Geographer

Sanin Hasibovic, Communication Scientist

Photographs: plan B:altic: Pudimat, Wibbeling

Maps:plan B:altic (source: Regionaler

Planungsverband Mittleres

Mecklenburg / Vorpommern 2010; City

of Rostock)

Contact:sonja.deppisch@hcu-hamburg.de

14

Rostock : ESS participatory mapping

15

Szenarienerstellung: Faktorenbezüge

16

Szenario: Einflussfaktoren und Entwicklungspfade