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www.controlrisks.com © Control Risks Group Limited
INCREASED RISKS - for international business travellers
Henrik Moll
5. October 2017
2 © Control Risks Group Limited
Henrik Moll, Control Risks, Copenhagen
Police and academic background
20 years of security and intellingence experience
DSIS boardmember
Personal Protection Officer
Terrorism investigation and intelligence
Terror threat analysis
Security consulting
National anti-radicalisation programme
3 © Control Risks Group Limited
Agenda • Terrorism – global trends
• Foreign fighter returnees – blowback?
• Risk perception
• Travel security
Global terrorism incident trends
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Western
MENA
FSU
Asia
Americas
Africa
Source: Control Risks Analytics and Incident Mapping (AIM), August 2017
New phase in Western Islamist extremist terrorism threat
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Attack Attempt Plot %Homegrown
AQ inspired and directed AQ incited
IS directed and inspired incited
Source: Control Risks, March 2017
0 5
10 15 20 25
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
USA
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
UK
0 5 10 15 20 25
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
France
0
5
10
15
20
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Australia
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Belgium
0
5
10
15
20
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Germany
Pronounced increase in threat activity in key Western countries
Source: Control Risks, August 2017
Syria conflict continues to drive terrorism threat
Peshmerga (US)
ISF (US, Iran) Syria
(Russia, Iran)
Hizbullah (Iran)
FSA (US/Gulf/Turkey)
Shia PMF (Iran)
SDF (Kurds) (US)
Turkey (US/Russia)
US/Coalition Russia
Shia militias (Iran) Iran
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1978-1992 1992-1995 1993-2014 1994-2009 2001-2014 2003-2014 2011-2015
Afghanistan Bosnia Somalia Chechnya Afghanistan Iraq Syria
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Previous Syria
Estimated number of foreign fighters, by conflict
Source: International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) 2015, UN 2016
Loss of caliphate will accelerate foreign fighter blowback
US/ Canada,
280
W Europe, 5,000
Eurasia, 4,700
Balkans, 875
N Africa, 8,000
Middle East, 8,240
SE Asia, 900
0.6
15.3
28.8
11.2
1.1
10.9
23.3
10.9
1.7
20.5
8.7
4.3
33.6
26.6
2.9
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
USA
SWE
NOR
NED
ITA
GBR
FRA
FIN
ESP
DNK
DEU
CAN
BEL
AUT
AUS
Estimate
Per million pop
Source: USMA CTC, United Nations, March 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Knife attacks, all Western countries, 2002-17
Low-tech and improvised attacks increasing in frequency
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Vehicle ramming attacks, all Western countries, 2002-17
Plot
Attempt
Attack
Source: Control Risks, March 2017
11 © Control Risks Group Limited
Propaganda • Professional communication
and media technology
• In English
• Targeting western audience
Message:
Join our organisation or take action yourself - use all available means (local solo/group terrorism)
”Just do it”
12 © Control Risks Group Limited
IS’s Media Offensive
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
Barricade hostage
of which: Jihadist
Rising frequency of jihadist barricade hostage incidents
Increases publicity of attack Hostage-takers may contact media
Increases disruptive impact Forces lockdowns, occupies security forces
Potentially maximises casualties Reflects and amplifies firearm tactics
Source: START Database, June 2017
Jakarta (Jan 16) Bamako (Nov 15)
Orlando (Jun 2016)
Paris (Nov 15)
Dhaka (Jul 2016)
Ouagadougou (Jan 16)
Istanbul (Dec 2016)
Complex or multimode assaults on civilian soft targets
15 © Control Risks Group Limited
Risk of being a victim of terrorism?
16 © Control Risks Group Limited
Risk Perception
1:10.000.000
1:10:000
17 © Control Risks Group Limited
Risk of being a victim in a traffic accident?
18 © Control Risks Group Limited
Volvo Museum, Gothenburg
19 © Control Risks Group Limited
Subjektive vs objektive risk perception
20 © Control Risks Group Limited
Do you have travel security policies in place? Do you have a travel security framework set up? Do you systematically assess the threat and risk developmentin your areas of interest? Where are you employees/colleagues right now? Do you have ‘real time’ overview?
21 © Control Risks Group Limited
How do you get in contact with them if anything happens?
In case of injuries – where would you guide them?
In case of the need for an evacuation – when, where, how, etc....??
22 © Control Risks Group Limited
23 © Control Risks Group Limited
Training
•
Awareness and reaction to active shooter and terrorism incidents
Hostile Environment Training
Find out more
Cultural behaviour
How are companies responding to the changing threat?
Reviewing existing threat
and risk assessments
Incorporating new data and intelligence
sources
Insider threat and workplace
violence programmes
Enhancing operational
risk management
Revisiting impact
mitigation planning
Investing in training and
peer intel sharing
25 © Control Risks Group Limited
¡ Policies – Objectives, responsibility, how to? – set up a framework…
¡ Risk assessment – travel destination’s risk picture defines the security countermeasures
¡ Training – increasing awareness, morale, ability to manage crisis situations, brings safety and security in daily life
¡ Risk reducing measures ¡ Medical assistance ¡ Security assistance
¡ Emergency management plan ¡ Crisis management ¡ Evacuation plan
Keypoints
Questions? Associate Director, Henrik Moll Control Risks, Copenhagen [email protected]
