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United Nations Environment Programme

Global Environment Outlook

GEO4environment for development

SUMMARY FOR

DECISION MAKERS


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United Nations Environment Programme

Global Environment Outlook

GEO4environment for developmentSUMMARY FOR

DECISION MAKERS


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The GEO-4 assessment process

Since 1997, UNEP has produced Global Environment

Outlook(GEO) reports providing assessments of the

interactions between environment and society. With its core

mandate of keeping the global environment under review,

UNEP coordinated a series of scientific assessments that

included extensive consultations and participatory processes,

resulting in the production of GEOreports in 1997, 1999

and 2002.

The fourth assessment, Global Environment Outlook:

environment for development (GEO-4), is the most

comprehensive GEO process to date. It was designed

to ensure synergy between science and policy, while

maintaining its scientific credibility and making it responsive

to policy needs and objectives. The launch in 2007 ofthe GEO-4 report coincides with the 20th anniversary

of the launch of the report of the World Commission on

Environment and Development, Our Common Future.

GEO-4 uses it as a reference to assess progress in

addressing key environment and development issues.

GEO-4 highlights the vital role of the environment in

development and, more importantly, for human well-being.

GEO-4 is more than a report: it is also a comprehensive

consultative process which began in 2004. In February

of that year, an intergovernmental consultation onstrengthening the scientific base of UNEP, which involved

more than 100 governments and 50 partner organizations,

called for a further strengthening of the GEO process. The

global consultation was followed by regional consultations in

September-October 2004, which identified key regional and

global environmental issues. Building on these consultations,

the scope, objectives and process of the GEO-4 were

finalized and adopted by the First Global Intergovernmental

and Multistakeholder Consultation in February 2005.

The assessment was carried out by 10 chapter expert groupsconsisting of coordinating leadauthors and lead authors

supported by chapter coordinators provided by the UNEP

secretariat. The draft outputs from the expert groups were

subjected to an additional round of regional consultations

and two rounds of extensive expert and government peer

review. The review process was overseen by chapter review

editors. The assessment was also guided and supported

by a High-level Consultative Groupof senior government

policy-makers, funding partners, scientists and academics as

well as representatives of some UN agencies, international

organizations, the private sector, GEO collaborating centres

and civil society.

In 10 chapters, the GEO-4 assessment provides: an

overview of environmental issues; state-and-trends of the

environment between 1987 and 2007; human dimensions

of environmental change; an outlook for the future using four

scenarios; and the policy options available to sustain our

common future:

Chapter 1: Environment for Development

Chapter 2: AtmosphereChapter 3: Land

Chapter 4: Water

Chapter 5: Biodiversity

Chapter 6: Sustaining a Common Future

Chapter 7: Vulnerability of People and the Environment:

Challenges and Opportunities

Chapter 8: Interlinkages: Governance for Sustainability

Chapter 9: The Future Today

Chapter 10: From the Periphery to the Core of Decision

Making Options for Action

The Summary for Decision Makers (SDM)was prepared

by UNEP with technical inputs from the coordinating lead

authors and inputs from the members of the High-level

Consultative Group. It underwent two rounds of extensive

expert and government peer review. Finally, the SDM was

subject to in-depth consideration by the Second Global

Intergovernmental and Multistakeholder Consultation in

September 2007. The consultation adopted a statement

which endorsed the SDM.

The basis for this Summary for Decision Makers can befound in the GEO-4 chapters. Reference sources for graphics

used in this report are provided at the end of the report.


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This Summary for Decision Makers synthesizes the findings of the main report: Global Environment Outlook:

environment for development (GEO-4) and is prepared by UNEP with:

Inputs from members of the High-Level Consultative Group

Agnes Kalibbala (co-chair), Jacqueline McGlade (co-chair), Ahmed Abdel-Rehim, Svend Auken, Philippe Bourdeau, Preety Bhandari,

Nadia Makram Ebeid, Idunn Eidheim, Exequiel Ezcurra, Peter Holmgren, Jorge Illueca, Fred Langeweg, John Matuszak, Toral Patel-Weynand,

Jaco Tavenier, Dan Tunstall, Judi Wakhungu, Vedis Vik (alternate member)

Technical inputs from the Coordinating Lead Authors

John Agard, Russell Arthurton, Neville Ash, Sabrina Barker, Jane Barr, Ivar Baste, Bradnee Chambers, David Dent,

Asghar Fazel, Habiba Gitay, Jill Jager, Peter King, Marcel Kok, Johan Kuylenstierna, Marc Aaron Levy, Clever Mafuta,

Diego Martino, Trilok Panwar, Walter Rast, George Varughese, Zinta Zommers

and

the following Lead and Regional Authors

Waleed K. Al-Zubari, Ahmed Fares Asfary, Samuel Ayonghe, lvaro Fernndez-Gonzlez, Murari Lal, Frank Murray,

Washington Odongo Ochola, Irene Pisanty-Baruch, Salvador Snchez-Coln, Tunnie Srisakulchairak, Marc Sydnor

It was considered and endorsed on 26 September 2007 by:

The Second Global Intergovernmental and Multistakeholder Consultation on the fourth Global Environment Outlook Report

Afghanistan, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Burundi, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cuba, Czech Republic,

Denmark, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Holy See, Honduras,

Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar,

The Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Panama, Philippines, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia,

Spain, St. Kitts and Nevis, Sweden, Sudan, Switzerland, Syria, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Uganda, United Kingdom,

United States of America, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zambia, and Zimbabwe

Arab Media Forum for Environment and Development, Egypt; Centre for Environment and Development for the Arab Region & Europe,

Egypt; Charles University of Prague, Czech Republic; Council for Development, Environmental Studies & Conservation (MAUDESCO),Mauritius; Department of Environment, Housing and Sustainable Development, Egypt; Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), The Netherlands;

Environment Liaison Centre International (ELCI), Kenya; Environment Liaison Centre International (ELCI), Switzerland; European Environment Agency,

Denmark; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy; Institute for Global Environment Strategies, United States;

International Council for Science (ICSU), France; International Conference on Philanthropy, Switzerland; IUCN-The World Conservation Union,

Switzerland; Maoni Network, Kenya; National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), Uganda; Organizacin Juvenil Ambiental (OJA),

Colombia; Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), France; Secretariat of the United Nations Forum on Forests,

United States; Society for Conservation and Protection of Environment (SCOPE), Pakistan; Stakeholder Forum for a Sustainable Future,

United Kingdom; Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Canada; Secretariat of the United Nations Convention to Combat

Desertification (UNCCD), Germany; Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Germany;

Tilburg University (IGSP), The Netherlands; United States Geological Survey (USGS), United States of America; World Health Organization

(WHO), Switzerland; World Meteorological Organization WMO Sub-regional Office for Eastern and Southern Africa, Kenya;

World Wide Fund for Nature-Kiunga MNRC&D Project (WWF), Kenya; and World Resources Institute (WRI), United States of America

The UNEP team included:

Adel Abdel-Kader, Joana Akrofi, Ivar Baste, Marion Cheatle, Jacquie Chenje, Munyaradzi Chenje, Thierry de Oliveira,

Volodymyr Demkine, Salif Diop, Silvia Giada, Peter Gilruth, Robert Hoft, Christian Lambrechts, Marcus Lee, Elizabeth Migongo-Bake,

Patrick Mmayi, Neeyati Patel, Charles Sebukeera, Nalini Sharma, Gemma Shepherd, Ashbindu Singh, Linda Starke (consultant),

Jaap Van Woerden, Ron Witt, and Jinhua Zhang


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There is evidence of unprecedented environmental

change at global and regional levels:

n The Earths surface is warming. This is nowevident from observations of increases in

global average air and ocean temperatures,

widespread melting of snow and ice, and

rising global average sea level. Other majorimpacts, include changes in water availability,land degradation, food security, and lossof biodiversity. The projected increase in

frequency and intensity of heat waves, storms,floods and droughts would dramatically affectmany millions of people including those in smallisland states and Polar regions. While in thepast century the global average temperatureincreased by 0.74C, the best estimate of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) for additional warming over the currentcentury is projected to be from 1.8 to 4.0C.Climate change may further exacerbate the lossof biodiversity and degradation of land, soil,forest, freshwater and oceans.

n More than 2 million people globally dieprematurely every year due to outdoor and

indoor air pollution. Although air pollution hasdecreased in some cities due to technologicaland policy measures, increasing emissionsin other cities are intensifying the challenges.Indoor air pollution due to the improper burningof solid biomass fuels imposes an enormoushealth burden.

n The hole in the stratospheric ozone layerover the Antarctic the layer that protects

people from harmful ultraviolet radiation

is now the largest it has ever been. Dueto decreased emissions of ozone depletingsubstances and assuming full Montreal Protocolcompliance, the ozone layer is expected torecover, but not until between 2060 and 2075as a result of long lag times.

n Unsustainable land use and climate changeare driving land degradation, including soilerosion, nutrient depletion, water scarcity,

salinity, desertification, and the disruptionof biological cycles. Poor people sufferdisproportionately from the effects of landdegradation, especially in the drylands, whichsupport some 2 billion people, 90 per cent ofwhom live in developing countries.

n The per capita availability of freshwater isdeclining globally, and contaminated water

remains the greatest single environmental

cause of human sickness and death. If present

trends continue, 1.8 billion people will beliving in countries or regions with absolutewater scarcity by 2025, and two-thirds of thepeople in the world could be subject to waterstress. The decline of quantity and quality ofsurface and groundwater is impacting aquaticecosystems and their services.

n Aquatic ecosystems continue to be heavilyexploited, putting at risk sustainability of

food supplies and biodiversity. Global marineand freshwater fish catches show large-scaledeclines, caused mostly by persistent overfishing.

n The great majority of well-studied species aredeclining in distribution, abundance or both.Although the decline in the area of temperateforest has been reversed, with an annualincrease of 30 000 km2 between 1990 and2005, deforestation in the tropics continuedat an annual rate of 130 000 km2 during thesame period. More than 16 000 species havebeen identified as threatened with extinction.

These unprecedented changes are due to

human activities in an increasingly globalized,

industrialized and interconnected world, driven byexpanding flows of goods, services, capital, people,technologies, information, ideas and labour, evenaffecting isolated populations. The responsibilityfor global environmental pressures is not equallydistributed throughout the world. For instance, in2004, United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change Annex 1 countries with 20 per centof world population produced 57 per cent of gross

Key messages for decision maKersHumankind depends on the environment, which is critical for both development and human well-being. Natural resources compared to financial, material and human resources are the foundation for much of the wealth of countries. Environmental

change can affect peoples security, health, social relations and material needs.


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world product based on purchasing power parityand accounted for 46 per cent of greenhouse gasemissions. Industrial development, natural resourceextraction and carbon-intensive industrial production,may have significant environmental consequences,which need to be addressed. Responses include the

use of the best available technologies and practicesas appropriate.

Environmental change affects human development

options, with poor people being the most

vulnerable. For example, in the period between1992 and 2001, floods were the most frequentnatural disaster, killing nearly 100 000 people andaffecting more than 1.2 billion people. More than90 per cent of the people exposed to disasters livein the developing world.

Biophysical and social systems can reachtipping points, beyond which there are abrupt,

accelerating, or potentially irreversible changes.The four GEO-4 scenarios show an increasing riskof crossing tipping points, even as some globalenvironmental degradation trends are slowed orreversed at different rates towards the middle of thecentury. Changes in biophysical and social systemsmay continue even if the forces of change areremoved, as evidenced in the stratospheric ozonedepletion and the loss of species.

The transition towards sustainable developmentneeds to be pursued more intensively by nations

and the international community, including

through capacity building and technological

support to developing countries. Actions toreduce the drivers of environmental change byall stakeholders, including the private sector andconsumers, require trade-offs, which may involvehard choices, among different values and concerns.

Decision-makers can promote timely action by

integrating prevention, mitigation and adaptation

efforts into the core of decision-making through

sustained efforts which include:

n Reducing peoples vulnerability toenvironmental and socio-economic changesby decentralization, strengthening resourcerights of local people, improving access tofinancial and technical support, improvingcapacities to cope with natural disasters, andempowering women and vulnerable groups;

n Integrating environmental activities into thebroader development framework, includingby ascertaining the environmental impacts ofproposed public spending, identifying sectoraland inter-sectoral environmental targets,promoting best practices, and monitoring long-

term achievements;n Enhancing treaty compliance by overcomingadministrative costs and the heavy reportingburden of Parties, improving monitoring andcompliance, and enhancing coordination,particularly at national level;

n Creating enabling environments forinnovations and emerging solutions byusing economic instruments, new and existingtechnologies, empowerment of stakeholders,and more adaptive approaches which breakaway from the traditional segmented institutional

management and production systems, andresult in more sustainable consumption andproduction patterns;

n Strengthening environmental knowledge,education and awareness by making thebest-available scientific research and dataaccessible through improved monitoring,assessments and knowledge infrastructure,building on the rapid developments ininformation and communication technologies;

n Mobilizing financial resources to addressenvironmental problems through innovative

approaches, including payments for ecosystemservices while achieving an open, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateraltrading system as well as meaningful tradeliberalization benefiting countries at all stagesof development.

Knowledge on the interlinkages between

environment and development, and the impacts

on human well-being, gained since the release

of Our Common Future, the report of the World

Commission on Environment and Development,

can be used effectively for the transition towards

sustainable development. Concerns about theglobal environment may have reached a tippingpoint of their own, with the growing realizationthat, for many problems, the benefits of early actionoutweigh the costs. Now is the time to pursuethe transition towards sustainable development

supported by well-governed, innovative and

results-oriented institutions.


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1introductionIn 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) presented its report, Our

Common Future. The Brundtland Commission, as it was known, brought international attention to the

concept of sustainable development a challenge to meet todays development needs without compromising the

ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Twenty years on, the challenges as set out in the Millennium

Development Goals (MDGs) are even more profound, and the importance of the environment in sustaining

development is becoming ever clearer.

2environment for developmentDevelopment depends on the environment while its impacts on the environment affect human well-being.

The world has changed radically over the past two decades. Significant changes to geopolitical borders

have occurred. Global population has grown from 5 billion to 6.7 billion. There has been a net annual rise in

gross domestic product (GDP) per person of almost 2 per cent and continued increases in trade volume, CO2

emissions and agricultural land (see Figure 1). Technological innovations have improved livelihoods and health.Low transportation costs, coupled with market liberalization and the rapid development of telecommunications

have fuelled globalization and altered trade patterns, expanding the flow of goods, services, capital, people,

technologies, information, ideas and labour. While millions have worked their way out of poverty and have

access to improved services, such as healthcare, there are still more than 1 billion poor people in the world. They

lack essential services such as clean water, adequate nutrition, shelter and clean energy, making them especially

vulnerable to environmental and socio-economic changes.

The responsibility for the mounting globalenvironmental pressures is not equally

distributed throughout the world. For instance,in 2004, United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change Annex 1 countries with20 per cent of world population, produced57 per cent of gross world product basedon purchasing power parity and accountedfor 46 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions.Changing drivers and pressures, including thelarge-scale movement of people from rural tourban areas, the widening gap between therichest and the poorest, and growth in demandfor energy, among other factors, have led toa deepening disparity in consumption patternsand in outsourcing of environmentally damagingproduction processes.

Long term sustainable development aimed atimproving human well-being entails:n increasing the asset base and its productivity;n empowering poor people and marginalized

communities;

n reducing and managing risks; andn taking a long-term perspective with regard

to intra- and inter-generational equity.

Ecosystems provide the natural resourcescapital needed for development. Naturalresources, account for more than a quarterof the wealth of low-income countries andsomewhat less in higher income countries.Changes in ecosystem services can affectnatural resources as well as financial,material, and human assets. All people rich and poor, urban and rural rely onnatural resources through a complex web ofinteractions. The GEO conceptual framework(see back page) illustrates many of the linksbetween environmental change and peoplessecurity, health, social relations and materialneeds, all of which are components of humanwell-being. Sectors such as agriculture,fisheries, forestry, tourism and mining areinstrumental in utilizing natural resources andecosystem services.


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The normative framework for humandevelopment is reflected in the internationallyagreed development goals in the MillenniumDeclaration. Environmental sustainabilityis one of the development goals critical toachieving the other targets. The eradicationof extreme poverty and hunger, for example,is dependent on sustainable agriculturewhich, in turn, relies on soils, water andecological processes.

Increasingly, there is evidence that investmentin environmental management results inincreased income generation for the ruralpoor. It can also result in income generationfor industries in developed countries

that produce environmental remediationequipment; for example, the environmentalindustry is Denmarks second largest export.

It is estimated that 80 per cent of peoplein developing countries rely on traditionalmedicines, and more than half of the mostfrequently prescribed drugs in developedcountries derive from natural resources.Worldwide, more than 1.3 billion peopledepend on fisheries, forests and agriculture foremployment. Communities in resource dependentcountries are, therefore, especially vulnerableto environmental degradation, climate change,and the loss of services from ecosystems. In theAdagon watershed in India, for example, the

Figure 1: Our shrinking Earthtrillion constant US$

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

10

3

trillion constant US$

35

20

billion tonnes

26

22

per cent of land area39

36

1900

7.91

1950

5.15

1987

2.60

2005

2.02

2030

1.69

2050

1.63

22

26

38.42

36.95

21

35

3.4

9.0

Notes: Numbers next to

images of Earth reflect hectares

of land per capita.

Graphs show changes in trade

volume (19872005), GDP

(19872004), CO2 emissions

(19902003) and agricultural

land area (19872002).

GDP

CO2 emissions

Agriculture

Trade

Changing drivers, such as population growth, economic activities and consumption patterns, have placed increasing pressure on the environment. Since 1987 the

world population has increased by almost 34 per cent, and world trade has increased 2.6 times. The illustration above shows how the land available to each personon Earth has been figuratively shrinking since 1900, from 7.91 ha then to 2.02 ha in 2005 and is projected to further drop to 1.63 ha by 2050. The figure also

shows that global economic output has grown by 67 per cent, also increasing the average per capita income in the same period. The graphs highlight some of the

pressures and environmental changes from human activities.


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Long-range transport of a variety of air pollutantsalso remains an issue of concern for human andecosystem health.

The hole in the stratospheric ozone layer overthe Antarctic the layer that protects peoplefrom harmful ultraviolet radiation is now thelargest it has ever been. Due to decreasedemissions of ozone depleting substances(ODS), the ozone layer is expected to recover,assuming full Montreal Protocol compliance,but not until between 2060 and 2075 as aresult of long lag times. Early precautionaryaction on stratospheric ozone depletion wastaken before the impacts were fully evident.In 1987, the international community, throughcooperation among developing and developedcountries, agreed to phase out productionand consumption of chlorofluorocarbons andother ODS, through the Montreal Protocol on

The areas in orange/red are the areas where there is seasonal melting at the surface of the ice sheet. The total melt extent in 2005 exceeded the previous record of 2002.

Figure 2: Seasonal melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Human and environmental exposure to air pollution is a major challenge, and an issue

of global concern for public health. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that

about 2.4 million people die prematurely every year due to inhaling fine particles. This figure

shows the annual mortality that is attributable to outdoor air pollution for different world

regions. The highest number of estimated annual premature deaths occurs in developing

countries of Asia and the Pacific.

Figure 3: Premature deaths due to outdoor urban PM 10 exposure by region in 2000

600

Attributable deaths (in thousands)

West Asia

Europe

North America

Latin America and the Caribbean

Asia and the Pacific

Africa

0

500

400

300

200

100


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Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Thesesubstances have undergone a massive phase-out over the last 20 years. Consequently, by2004 the emissions of ODS are about 20 percent of their 1990 level. As ODS were alsoGHGs, the treaty has simultaneously contributed

to mitigating climate change. The protocolrepresents a global success story broughtabout, among others, by use of economicincentives, increased private investments, andenhanced public awareness.

LandUnsustainable land and water use, and theimpacts of climate change are driving landdegradation, including soil erosion, nutrientdepletion, water scarcity, salinity, chemicalcontamination and disruption of biological

cycles. The cumulative effects of these changesthreaten food security, biodiversity, and carbonfixation and storage. Poor people sufferdisproportionately from the effects of landdegradation, especially in the drylands, whichsupport some two billion people, 90 per cent ofwhom live in developing countries.

One example of long-term success in combatingland degradation is in the Great Plains of theUnited States, where a comprehensive package ofmeasures was first introduced in the 1930s. As a

result, natural, social, institutional and financialcapital has been rebuilt and maintained to thepresent day. The Land Care programme in Australia

is another successful example. In Africa and otherdeveloping regions, many countries have embarkedon national action programmes to combatdesertification within the framework of the UNConvention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

The decline in the area of temperate foresthas been reversed with an average annualincrease of 30 000 km2 between 1990 and2005. However, deforestation in the tropicshas continued at an average annual rate of130 000 km2, with serious implications for GHGgas concentrations and biodiversity loss. Declinesin natural forest area are partially countered byecological restoration efforts, investment in plantedforests, and more efficient use of wood products.More forest is being designated for ecosystemservices but effective management is required to

maintain and restore ecosystems.

The release of harmful and persistent pollutants,such as heavy metals and organic chemicals,from mining, manufacturing, sewage, energyand transport emissions, the use of agro-chemicals, and from leaking stockpiles ofobsolete chemicals and products, remains aproblem for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.Although there has been progress in dealingwith pollution in the industrialized countries,mainly through regulation, achieving an

acceptable level of safety worldwide requiresstrengthening of institutional and technicalcapacities in all countries.

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Unsustainable land-

use contributes to land

degradation, including

soil erosion and nutrient

depletion, which adversely

affect human health,

food security, and limit

livelihood options.


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The average population density in coastal areasis now twice as high as the global average.More than 100 million people live in areas nomore than one metre above mean sea-level (seeFigure 4); 21 of the worlds 33 mega-cities arelocated in coastal areas, with most of them indeveloping countries. Poor planning and the lossof key ecosystems such as wetlands, mangrovesand coral reefs, and sea level rise due to climatechange, are increasing the risk of flooding andreducing coastal protection from storms, tsunamis

and erosion.

WaterContaminated water remains the greatest causeof human sickness and death on a globalscale. The per capita availability of freshwateris declining, in part because of excessivewithdrawals of surface and groundwater. Ifpresent trends continue, many countries willnot meet their MDGs relating to water. About1.8 billion people will be living in countries orregions with absolute water scarcity by 2025and two-thirds of the people in the world couldbe subject to water stress, with the GEO-4scenarios indicating that there could be morethan 5.1 billion people living under suchconditions in 2050.

Since agriculture accounts for more than 70 percent of global water-use, it is a logical target forconservation management. Development and

implementation of Integrated Water ResourcesManagement (IWRM) has enhanced manyaspects of human well-being and ecosystemhealth, through improved water availability andquality both in catchments and in their respectivecoastal zones.

The worlds oceans are the primary regulator ofglobal climate and an important sink for GHGs(see Figure 5), leading, for example, to oceanacidification. At watershed, regional and ocean

basin scales, the water cycle is being affected bylong-term changes in climate, altering precipitationpatterns. Climate changes are also causingmajor reductions in Arctic sea ice cover, and theaccelerated melting of permafrost and mountainglaciers, and Arctic land ice. These in turn haveserious impacts on the security of communities inthe Arctic, in glacier-fed river basins and deltas,and in low-lying coastal areas, including SmallIsland Developing States (SIDS) worldwide.Concerted global actions are needed to addressthe root causes, while local efforts can reducehuman vulnerability.

Eutrophication of inland and coastal waterscaused by excessive nutrient loads from sourcessuch as agricultural fertilizer causes sporadicmajor fish kills, and threatens human healthand livelihoods. The deterioration of inlandand coastal water quality is being exacerbatedby other pollutants from land-based sources,

Rapid and poorly planned urbanization in ecologically sensitive coastal areas increases vulnerabilities to coastal hazards and climate change impacts.

Figure 4: Coastal population and shoreline degradation

None

Less than 30%

30 to 70%

More than 70%

Population living within 100 kmof the coast

Most altered

Altered

Least altered

Shoreline

Selected coastal cities of morethan one million people


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1

particularly, municipal wastewater, andurban run-off.

Aquatic ecosystems continue to be heavily

exploited, putting at risk sustainability of foodsupplies and biodiversity. Global marineand freshwater fish catches show large-scale declines, caused mostly by persistentoverfishing. Total marine catches are beingsustained only by fishing ever further offshoreand deeper in the oceans and progressivelylower down the food chain. Freshwater stockssuffer from habitat degradation and alteredthermal regimes related to climate change andwater impoundment.

BiodiversityBiodiversity decline and loss of ecosystemservices continue to be a major global threat tofuture development. The reduction in distributionand functioning of land, freshwater and marinebiodiversity is more rapid than at any timein human history. Ecosystems such as forests,wetlands, and drylands are being transformedand, in some cases, irreversibly degraded.

Rates of species extinction are increasing.The great majority of well-studied species,including commercially important fish stocks,are declining in distribution or abundance or

both. Genetic diversity of agricultural and otherspecies is widely considered to be in decline.

Despite the importance of terrestrial and aquaticecosystems, they are being modified in extentand composition by people at an unprecedentedrate, with little understanding of the implicationsthis will have in terms of their ability to functionand provide services in the future. Figure 6highlights the status of terrestrial ecosystems.

Biodiversity plays multiple roles in the dailylives of people through the supply of ecosystemservices. In agriculture, biodiversity contributesto regulating and supporting services throughsoil formation, nutrient cycling, and pollination.Biodiversity is the basis for cultural servicesthrough spiritual and aesthetic benefits,and amenity values from ecotourism. Someeconomic estimates are available, for example,the value of the regulating services provided

Ocean circulation the global ocean conveyor is driven by differences in seawater density, determined by temperature and salt content. This circulation is of

enormous significance to the world, carrying carbon dioxide (CO2) to the deep ocean, distributing heat and dissolved matter, and strongly influencing climate regimes

and the availability of nutrients to marine life.

Figure 5: The Global Ocean Conveyor

Warm shallow current

Cold and saltydeep current

Indian

OceanP a c i f i c O c e a n

A t l an t i c

Oc ean

Sea-to-airheat transfer

Gulf

Stream

Warmer water

Cooler water

Gulf Stream


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by honeybees as pollinators for crops has beenestimated at well over US$2 billion per year,and the annual world fish catch is valued atUS$58 billion.

In recognition of the importance of biodiversityand the fact that poor people in rural and remoteareas tend to be the most directly affected bythe deterioration or loss of ecosystem services,many governments have established and adopted

the 2010 biodiversity targetto reduce the rateof loss of biodiversity at global, regional andnational scales. The target was adopted bythe Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD),and endorsed by the 2002 World Summit onSustainable Development (WSSD).

There have been local success stories with theconservation and sustainable use of biodiversity,particularly where economic incentives havebeen made available, such as for ecotourism,biodiversity-friendly agricultural practices,certification schemes and various initiatives onpayments for ecosystem services. However,at a global level, and in most regions of theworld, biodiversity continues to be lost becausecurrent policies and economic systems do notincorporate the values of biodiversity effectivelyin either the political or the market systems, andmany policies that are already in place are yetto be fully implemented.

Significant improvements in human well-

being have been achieved globally overthe last 20 years. However, there are stillmore than 1 billion poor people who lackessential services and who are not bufferedagainst environmental and socio-economicchanges. Many countries will not meet the2015 targets of the MDGs. Addressingvulnerability provides opportunities to meetthese goals.

Throughout the world, recurring patternsof vulnerability can be found, including inindustrialized and developing regions, andurban and rural areas. Examples of theseinclude contaminated sites, drylands, energysecurity and, urbanization in coastal zones.The most vulnerable groups include thepoor, indigenous populations, women andchildren in both developed and developingcountries. Analysis of representative patternsof vulnerability in different regions shows the

4regional perspectivesThe UNEP regions share common concerns about a number

of critical environmental and sustainability issues, yet face

tremendous differences in their challenges. Strong interdependencies

exist and are reinforced by globalization and trade, with growing

demand on resources in and across the regions.

13

Despite the importance of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, they are being modified in extent and composition by people at an unprecedented rate, with

little understanding of the implications this will have in terms of their ability to function and provide services in the future.

Critical or endangered

Vulnerable

Relatively stable or intact

Ecoregions with noongoing threat

Figure 6: Status of terrestrial ecoregions

Note: An ecoregion is

a large unit of land

containing a

geographically distinct

assemblage of species,

natural communities, and

environmental conditions.


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unequal distribution of risks for specific groupsof people. Although vulnerability is context-and-site-specific, certain common elementscan be observed across regions, scalesand contexts. Table 1 lists the environmentalissues which were identified by regional

consultations in September-October 2004.

The following sections highlight environmentalchallenges and opportunities of the regions.

Africas land is under pressure from a growingpopulation, natural disasters such as droughtand floods, desertification, the inappropriateuse of technology and chemicals, andpoverty. In addition to threatening thelivelihoods of the rural poor, land degradationhas widespread effects on Africas rivercatchments, forests and agricultural land,and ecosystem services. Per capita access toland is declining even as the region strugglesto increase food production per unit area.Per capita agricultural production declinedby 0.4 per cent between 2000 and 2004.Climate change and more frequent droughtsand floods in Africa, are exacerbating land

degradation. Africa is one of the regions mostvulnerable to climate change and has theleast adaptive capacity. Water and sanitationare also priority issues for most Africancountries. Despite an overall improvement inthe coverage of water supply between 1990

and 2002, the regional projection to 2015still falls below the MDG target of 75 percent coverage.

The region continues to be at risk fromhazardous and electronic waste dumpingdue to inadequate monitoring capacitiesand institutional mechanisms to managesuch waste. Africa holds at least 50 000tonnes of obsolete pesticides which threatenboth people and the environment. Lack ofenvironmentally friendly technology is a major

problem in Africa that should be dealt withthrough technology transfers, taking intoconsideration the preservation of culturalheritage. Although there are efforts to managethe environment through the African MinisterialConference on the Environment (AMCEN),initiatives such as the New Partnership forAfricas Development (NEPAD) environmentaction plan, land and agrarian reforms,and integrated land and water managementprogrammes, policy shortcomings still exist,and so do unfair agricultural subsidies in

developed regions which undermine theprofitability of farming and livelihoods of smalllandholders in Africa.

In Asia and the Pacific, environmentalchange is driven by rapid population growth,changing consumption patterns accompanyinghigher incomes, and burgeoning industrialand urban development. Various factors haveled to an increase in urban air pollution: ahighly urbanized population; poorly plannedmunicipal development and transport services;a 2.5 times increase in the use of passengercars over the last two decades (see Figure7); and haze pollution from forest fires andperi-urban industries in Southeast Asia. Airpollution causes the premature deaths ofabout 500 000 people annually. Manycountries have, in recent years, initiated aswitch from conventional fossil fuels to cleanerrenewable forms of energy. Excessive and

Table 1: Key regional priority issues selected for GEO-4

Africa Land degradation and its cross-cutting impacts onforests, freshwater, marine and coastal resources, aswell as pressures such as drought, climate variabilityand change, and urbanization

Asia and the Pacific Transport and urban air quality, freshwater stress,valuable ecosystems, agricultural land use, andwaste management

Europe Climate change and energy, unsustainableproduction and consumption, air quality and

transport, biodiversity loss and land-use change,and freshwater stress

Latin America and theCaribbean

Growing cities, biodiversity and ecosystems threats,degrading coasts and polluted seas, and regionalvulnerability to climate change

Nor th America Energy and climate change, u rban sp rawl andfreshwater stress

West Asia Freshwater stress, land degradation, degrading coastsand marine ecosystems, urban management, andpeace and security

Polar Regions Climate change, persistent pol lu tants, the ozone layer,

and development and commercial activity


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15

inefficient use of water, industrial pollution,climatic variability and natural disastersare major causes of water stress. Althoughthere has been remarkable progress in theprovision of improved drinking water overthe last decade, some 655 million people inthe region (17.6 per cent) still lack access tosafe water.

The population pressure on marginal landand climate-related extremes in the pastfew decades pose a risk to terrestrial andmarine biodiversity in the region. Rapidchanges in consumption patterns have led

to the generation of large quantities ofelectric and electronic waste, and toxicand hazardous waste. The illegal traffic inthese wastes poses new, growing challenges.Although most countries have developedextensive domestic laws, regulations andstandards related to the environmentand participate in global action throughmultilateral and bilateral agreements, thechallenging task is to implement thoselaws and regulations. Rapid introduction ofinnovative and energy efficient technologyshould improve environmental conditions inthe region.

Soil erosion is widespread in Africa, affecting food production and food security. In addition to threatening the livelihoods of the rural poor, land degradation has

widespread effects on Africas river catchments, forests and agricultural land, and ecosystem services.


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1

Europe is a region of great environmental andsocio-economic diversity. Economic recoveryin the past two decades has resulted in anincrease of national income in many countriesacross the region. This, together with thegrowing number of individual households,is driving environmental change. The regionhas made progress in decoupling economic

growth from resource use, although per capitahousehold consumption is steadily increasing.Recently, growing public awarenessunderpinned by rising prices, has givennew political momentum to climate changepolicies. Since 1987, GHG emissions (see

Figure 8) from the energy sector have beenreduced in some countries in Western Europe,although they have increased across theregion as a whole. Emissions of air pollutantsare largely driven by the demand for greatermobility, including increasing use of privatetransport and deterioration of public transportsystems in many countries.

Despite much progress, poor water and urbanair quality still cause substantial problems insome parts of Eastern and Southern Europe.

Intensification and land abandonment are thetwo major trends in agriculture having impactson biodiversity, as well as increasing therisk of land degradation and desertification,especially in southern parts of the region.Transport infrastructure is fragmentinglandscapes and reducing biodiversity.

With its many action plans, environmentalinstitutions and legal instruments, the regionhas extensive experience with environmentalcooperation. Easier to manage environmental

problems (e.g., point-source air and waterpollution) have been effectively addressedin much of Central and Western Europe, butremain challenges in many Eastern Europeancountries. The use of market-based instrumentsin environmental policy has gained groundsubstantially in Europe, especially in the areaof taxes, charges and tradeable permits.Comprehensive systems of pollution chargesfor air and water are being implementedand resource use and waste taxes are beingintroduced. More efficient production andconsumption patterns need to be established,and good governance mechanisms andlessons learned exchanged within the region,to achieve sustainable development.

The Latin America and the Caribbean regionis the most urbanized in the developing world,with 77 per cent of the total populationliving in cities, and urbanization rates are still

While greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector have been reduced in Western Europe

since 1987, the trend since the end of the 1990s shows that these emissions have increased

across the European region. This is partly because of increasing natural gas prices which have re-

established coal as a key fuel.

Figure 8: Trends in total greenhouse gas emissions

1990 = 100

1995

1999

EU25EFTA

EE&C

South Eastern Europe

1990

1993

1997

2001

2004

105

80

70

60

90

1994

1998

1991

1996

1992

2003

2000

2002

Notes: For some countries

reporting of some (mainly

fluorinated) gases was incomplete,

but because of the relatively low

weight of fluorinated gases, the

trends presented reflect the

development of total greenhouse

gas emissions rather accurately.

The volume of emissions in million

tonnes of CO2 equivalents in 1990

was: EU-25= 5 231, EE&C=

4 630, SEE=620, EFTA=106

100

85

75

65

95

The exploding growth in motorized vehicles is the key factor in both traffic congestion and the

levels of urban air pollution in many cities in the region. Between 1987 and 2003, the use of

passenger cars increased about 2.5 times.

Figure 7: Trend in use of passenger cars

million cars

0

1987

1989

1995

1999

North East Asia

South Asia

South East Asia

South Pacific

Australia and New Zealand

1991

1993

1997

2001

2002

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

2000

1988

1990

1996

1992

1994

1998


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1

Protocol and produced a plan to become moreenergy-efficient.

As a measure of progress, energy use per unit ofGDP has declined; however, in absolute terms,energy use and associated GHG emissionshave increased. Figure 10 shows trends inenergy production in the region over the pasttwo decades. With only 5.1 per cent of worldpopulation, North America consumes just over24 per cent of global primary energy. Increasingdomestic energy exploration is leading to

new threats from air pollution, the potential foradditional releases of oil to the environment andthe fragmentation of landscapes, with impactson biodiversity.

Continued urban sprawl and growing exurbandevelopment are leading to pressures onwater quality, biodiversity, and air pollution.In response, many states, provinces andmunicipalities have implemented smart growthand other strategies to manage sprawl, preservefarmland and green space, and protectecosystem services. For example, the masterplans of most Canadian cities include thecontrol of sprawl, and in the US, 22 states haveenacted laws to curb sprawl.

Water quality and availability vary across theregion. Per capita water consumption is thehighest in the world; however, this includessignificant water contained in food exports;

agriculture use accounts for 41 per cent of annualwater withdrawals in the US and 12 per cent inCanada. Excessive groundwater withdrawal in theUS remains a challenge. Steps are being taken toimprove water use efficiency through conservationprogrammes in agriculture and for householduse. Overall water quality in the region is thecleanest in the world. However, there is significantvariability and approximately 20 per cent of USwatersheds face serious water quality challenges.Significant gains have been made in point-sourcepollution, but non-point source pollution remains a

major difficulty and has become a priority for bothcountries. Excess nutrient run-off is an importantproblem, contributing to eutrophication of manyUS estuaries. Both countries are responding towater problems with national and transboundaryIntegrated Water Resource Management (IWRM)approaches to improve policy measures forthese complex water issues. The human healthconsequences of environmental impacts are anemerging issue.

West Asia has made strides in environmentalgovernance since Our Common Future,including establishing environmental institutions,enacting environmental regulations, developingenvironmental and sustainable developmentstrategies, such as the sustainable developmentinitiative in the Arab Region, and joining manyof the MEAs. Nevertheless, continued populationgrowth, military conflicts, and rapid developmenthave resulted in a significant increase in

The past two decades have seen a marked shift in energy production in North America, with crude oil, natural gas liquids and feedstocks declining, and coal and

coal products, natural gas and nuclear production increasing.

Figure 10: Energy production by fuel type

Solar/wind/other 0.1%

Nuclear 7.9%

Hydro 2.6%

Crude oil, natural gas liquids and feedstocks 31.3% Natural gas 24.9%

Combustible renewables and waste 4.5%

Geothermal 0.5%

Coal and coal products 2 8.2%

Hydro 2.7%

Combustible renewables and waste 4.3%

Geothermal 0.4%

Crude oil, natural gas liquids andfeedstocks 23.1% Coal and coal products 29.3% Natural gas 28.4% Nuclear 11.6%

1987

2005


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1

environmental challenges and pressures onnatural resources. The region is one of the mostwater-stressed in the world. Per capita freshwateravailability is decreasing, while consumption isincreasing. Water resources are overexploitedwith 80 per cent used for agriculture (see Figure

11). Institutional and policy reforms have beenemphasizing a shift from water supply to demandmanagement. An additional major challenge thatimpacts planning is the absence of agreementsregulating shared water resources.

Unsustainable agricultural practices,overgrazing and rangeland cultivation,recreational activities, and urbanizationhave degraded vast land areas. Measuresto mitigate land degradation and to protectthreatened areas are well defined in national

action plans to combat desertification.However, in many countries these plansare ineffective because they are notmainstreamed into national socio-economicdevelopment policies. Marine and coastalareas are threatened by urbanization, tourisminfrastructure, industry, oil pollution, chemicalcontamination, invasive alien species andoverfishing. Efforts to introduce IntegratedCoastal Zone Management (ICZM) shouldbe reinforced with strict protection andconservation measures to meet the fast-paced

development. The urban environment is facingescalating challenges related to increased airpollution and increased wastes. Policies andsuccessful measures have been implemented inseveral countries, such as phasing-out leadedgasoline, adopting zero-flaring policies,enhancing the use of natural gas as energy,and introducing effective waste managementsystems. Armed conflict has harmed humanwell-being, expanded the number of refugees,and resulted in the degradation of naturalresources and ecological habitats. Regionalcooperation in transboundary environmentalproblems and environmental management areundertaken by the Council of Arab MinistersResponsible for the Environment (CAMRE).However, strengthening of institutions,capacity building, environmental legislationand enforcement are urgently required.Finally, peace and stability are essential forsustainable development in the region.

The Polar regions influence majorenvironmental processes, and have directimpacts on global biodiversity and humanwell-being. The regions are interlinked withglobal climate change impacts, such asaltered ocean currents and rising sea levels.The Arctic is warming twice as fast as theworld average, causing shrinking sea ice (see

Figure 12), melting of glaciers as well aschanges in vegetation. The Greenland andAntarctic ice sheets are the largest contributors

Although urban demand for water is high in the region, the agricultural sector consumes most

water, accounting for more than 80 per cent of total water used. During the past few decades,economic policies favouring food self-sufficiency and socio-economic development have prioritized

the development and expansion of irrigated agriculture.

Figure 11: Current and projected water demand in West Asia

billion m3/year

180

0

1990

160

100

80

2000 2025

140

120

60

40

20

Industrial

Domestic

Agricultural

The Arctic is warming almost twice as fast as the world average, and most increases occurred in

the past 20 years.

Figure 12: Summer Arctic sea ice is shrinking at a rate of 8.9 per cent per decade

million km2

5

2006

1995

9

1999

1991

1997

1993

1979

1981

8

7

6

2005

2003

2001

1985

1989

1987

1983


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0

to the sea level rise from melting land ice.Persistent organic pollutants, although bannedin most industrialized countries, are still usedelsewhere and persist and accumulate inpolar regions where they enter marine andterrestrial ecosystems, and accumulate in

food chains. These toxic substances posea threat to the integrity of the traditionalfood system and the health of indigenouspeoples in the Arctic. Mercury from industrialemissions can pose a similar threat becauseit can be transported over long distances andtransformed into methyl mercury, a PersistentOrganic Pollutant (POP). Ozone depletion hasresulted in increased ultraviolet radiation, withimpacts on ecosystems and human health.

More than 90 per cent of the people exposedto disasters live in the developing world. Millionsare also affected in developed countries. Overthe past 20 years, natural hazards (see Figure13) such as earthquakes, floods, droughts,storms, tropical cyclones and hurricanes,wildfires, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions andlandslides have claimed more than 1.5 millionlives and affected more than 200 millionpeople annually. Between 1992 and 2001,floods were the most frequent natural disaster,killing nearly 100 000 and affecting more than1.2 billion people worldwide. The capacity toadapt to and withstand hazards in some partsof the world is being eroded through reducedstate protection schemes, the undermining ofinformal safety nets, poorly built or maintainedinfrastructure, conflict, and chronic illness.

However, progress has been made on severalfronts over the last 20 years. The historicaldecline of the temperate forests has reversed,some regional air pollution problems, such asacid rain in Europe and North America, havebeen successfully addressed, major research

advances have been made in agricultureon innovations for integrating conservationand development to ease biodiversityloss, reverse land degradation and fosterenvironmental sustainability and, in somecities, environmental quality is better todaythan when Our Common Futurewas publishedin 1987.

There are also many cases in which problemspersist even though proven solutions areknown. In these cases, progress requires

concerted, focused implementation of bestpractices, as in the example of recentinitiatives to extend the leaded-petrol banto countries where it is still used. There issubstantial experience with a wide range ofpolicy instruments that can be transferred,adapted and implemented (Table 2).

At the global level, strengthening UNEPand better cooperation among UnitedNations bodies and other institutionsto make environment and sustainable

development governance more efficientand effective has long been a goalof the international community. Theseefforts are ongoing in UNEP in follow-up to the Cartagena agreement onInternational Environmental Governance(IEG). Discussions on how to strengthenenvironment and sustainable developmentare also underway through the UnitedNations General Assembly (UNGA).Various secretariats of MEAs and UnitedNations bodies have signed Memoranda ofUnderstanding. Environmental cooperationalso provides opportunities to createpathways for peace by promoting sustainableresource use between countries.

Regional environmental cooperation has alsobeen strengthened since 1987. A numberof regional environmental ministerial forahave been established, including the African

5lessons and progress from the pasttwo decadesEnvironmental changes affect human development options,

with poor people being the most vulnerable. Environmental changes

impact human well-being, human vulnerability, and peoples ability

to cope or adapt. For example, conflicts, violence and persecution

displace large civilian populations, forcing millions of people into

marginal ecological areas within countries and across international

boundaries. This undermines, sometimes for decades, sustainable

livelihoods, economic development, and the capacity of ecosystems

to meet an increased demand for resources.


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1

Ministerial Conference on the Environment(AMCEN), and Conference of EuropeEnvironment Ministers (CEEM), the Forumof Ministers of the Environment of LatinAmerica and the Caribbean, the Associationof Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), andCouncil of Arab Ministers Responsible for theEnvironment (CAMRE). The North AmericanFree Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has an

environmental accord that is overseen by theCommission for Environmental Cooperation(CEC). The European Union (EU) providesa good example of the added value ofstrong political cooperation among nations,

especially in establishing environmentalregulations on a wide range of issues.

Coordination on environment and sustainabledevelopment issues is equally important atthe national level. Here, coordination amongMEA focal points and among ministriesrepresenting governments in various fora ondevelopment, finance, foreign affairs and

environment needs to be encouraged.

Direct regulation plays a major role inachieving progress and is likely to continuedoing so, even if the use of market forces

Table 2. Classification of environmental policy instruments

Command-and-controlregulations

Direct provision bygovernments

Engaging the public andthe private sectors Using markets Creating markets

n Standards

n Bansn Permits and quotas

n Zoning

n Liability

n Legal redress

n Flexible regulation

n Environmentalinfrastructure

n Eco-industrial zones orparks

n National parks,protected areas andrecreation facilities

n Ecosystemrehabilitation

n Public participation

n Decentralizationn Information disclosure

n Eco-labelling

n Voluntary agreements

n Public-privatepartnerships

n Removing perversesubsidies

n Environmental taxesand charges

n User charges

n Deposit-refund systems

n Targeted subsidies

n Self-monitoring (suchas ISO 14000)

n Property rights

n Tradeable permits andrights

n Offset programmes

n Green procurement

n Environmentalinvestment funds

n Seed funds andincentives

n Payment for ecosystemservices

Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, droughts, storms, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, wildfires, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and landslides threaten people

around the world. Two-thirds of all disasters are hydrometeorological events, such as floods, windstorms and extreme temperatures. More than 90 per cent of thepeople exposed to disasters live in the developing world, and more than half of disaster deaths occur in countries with a low human development index.

High total economic loss risktop 3 deciles at risk from:

Figure 13: Highest risk hot spots by natural hazard type

Drought only

Notes: Geophysical hazards

include earthquakes and

volcanoes.

Hydrological hazards

include floods, cyclones and

landslides.

Geophysical only

Hydro only

Geophysical and hydro

Drought and geophysical

Drought and hydro

Drought, hydro and geophysical


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and soft instruments, such as the provision ofinformation and technology transfer, play amore important role than before. By compilingsuccessful experiences from global, regional,sub-regional, national and local initiativesthe GEO process can provide some valuable

lessons learned on general principles forpublic policy formulation and implementation.

Effective diffusion of innovative policies oftenresults from governments and other actorslearning from each other. Best practicesare spread most effectively when there ismonitoring and reporting of policies andoutcomes. Almost all successful policyinitiatives from the past two decades havebeen supported by robust environmentalmonitoring programmes. Such programmes

are lacking in regard to many of the highpriority problems identified in GEO-4.

Civil society and the private sector are alsoplaying a growing role in decision-makingand in the delivery of solutions throughextended opportunities for environmentaltechnology and innovation in some regions.The growing awareness of environmentalproblems, and better education programmeshave also led to a broadening of corporatesocial responsibility (CSR). CSR and corporate

financing of certain social and environmentalactivities have been encouraged by globalinitiatives that have stimulated companies toreport not only on their economic activitiesbut, also, on their social and environmentalperformance. The Principles for ResponsibleInvestment (PRI), launched at the New YorkStock Exchange in April 2006, had after sixmonths been accepted by 94 institutionalinvestors from 17 countries representingUS$5 trillion in investments.

Through the GEO-4 scenario exercise,stakeholders explored the interplay betweensome of the environmental issues inatmosphere, land, water and biodiversity.The scenarios are based on assumptionsrelated to institutional and socio-politicaleffectiveness, demographics, economicdemand, trade and markets, scientific andtechnological innovation, value-systems

and social and individual choices, andhighlighted those areas of uncertainty in thecoming decades. The following are the mainelements of the four scenarios:n Markets First: the private sector, with

active government support, pursues

maximum economic growth as the bestpath to improve the environment andhuman well-being for all.

n Policy First: the government sector, withactive private- and civic-sector support,implements strong policies intended toimprove the environment and human well-being, while still emphasizing economicdevelopment.

n Security First: the government sector andthe private sector vie for control in effortsto improve, or at least maintain, human

well-being for mainly the rich and powerfulin society.n Sustainability First: the civic, government

and private sectors work collaborativelyto improve the environment and humanwell-being for all, with a strong emphasison equity.

There is an increasing understanding of howthe environmental changes being recordedaround the world are linked through timeand space via a complex set of biophysical

and social processes. These changes maycontinue even if the forces of change areremoved, as evidenced by the stratosphericozone depletion and the loss of species.Such time lags have implications for theformulation and implementation of policyinterventions. Biophysical and social systemscan also reach tipping points, beyondwhich there are abrupt, accelerating, orpotentially irreversible changes. The fourGEO-4 scenarios show an increasing riskof crossing tipping points, even as someglobal environmental degradation trends areslowed or reversed at different rates towardsthe middle of the century.


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Existing institutions are vital in creating the rightconditions for change. Further achievementscan be brought about by following a two-track,complementary approach (see Figure 14):n Expanding institutions and adapting policies

that have already worked effectively forconventional problems into areas lackingsuch policies, especially in developingregions, and financing this endeavour;

n Supporting innovation that pursues newand emerging solutions for persistentenvironmental problems by using economicinstruments and more adaptive approaches.

Building on recent gainsOver the last 20 years, the range ofinstitutions and policy options for dealingwith environmental problems has expanded

3

Figure 14: Two tracks to address environmental problems with proven and emerging solutions

From the periphery to the core of decision making a road map

e b

p

m

Proven solutions are available (conventional problems) Solutions are emerging (persistent problems)

p addressing pressures, state and impacts

Conventional management, simple policy targets Structural change and adaptive management

t addressing structural drivers

Track 1 Track 2

6going forwardThe pressing environmental issues facing decision-makers today can be mapped along a continuum from

those where proven solutions are available, to those where both the understanding of the problem and its

solutions are still emerging. In all cases, science has a key role to play in providing the best available information

to enable informed decision-making. The long-term knowledge base of indigenous peoples in providing such

knowledge should also be considered.

The two tracks are expected to merge over time as the environmental policy agenda is progressively moved from the periphery to the core of economic and social

development decision making. Both tracks need greater focus to address underlying societal and cultural values, increased education, empowerment of citizens and

decentralized governance structures.


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5

such as the establishment of a voluntarypeer-review mechanism on compliance,can also contribute. Identified interlinkagesand synergies between environmentalchallenges can serve as areas for cooperationamong the treaties and for more effectiveimplementation and capacity building at thenational level.

The integration of environmental activitiesinto the broader development frameworkis at the heart of the MDG on achievingenvironmental sustainability. Improvedefficiency and coherence can be achievedby integrating environmental mitigation andadaptation efforts into development policies.A key role for environmental institutions toachieve this goal is to provide knowledgeand promote awareness; identify targets,policies, regulations, tools and best practices;and monitor long-term achievements.

Striving to ensure more sustainable patternsof consumption and production is a keyapproach to mainstreaming the environment.Opportunities exist in the implementationof the multi-stakeholder Marrakech process,which supports regional and nationalinitiatives to promote the shift towards suchpatterns. Efforts to link environmental policieswith major public budgets represent anothereffective option for integration. A relativelysmall number of countries, including Canadaand Norway, for example, review theirbudgets to ascertain the environmentalimpacts of proposed public spending. The EUrequires an environmental impact assessmentfor spending on national projects fromstructural and regional funds.

Strengthened environmental knowledgeabout interactions between people and theenvironment at all scales, based on the best-

As a result of various global and regional conferences and assessments, a diversity of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) has been adopted, providing

the legal and institutional framework to tackle various environmental challenges. One of the agreements that has drawn significant attention during the last 20 years

is the Montreal Protocol to the Vienna Convention on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The Montreal Protocol, which became effective in 1989 and

had 191 parties at the beginning of 2007, has helped decrease or stabilize atmospheric concentrations of many of the ozone-depleting substances, including

chlorofluorocarbons. The protocol is regarded as one of the most successful international agreements to date.

Figure 15: Ratification of major multilateral environmental agreements

200

Number of parties

0

75

25

50

1971

2007

100

125

1981

Basel

CBD

CITES

CMS

World HeritageKyoto

1979

1983

1975

Ozone

1985

2003

1999

1989

1995

1987

1991

1997

2001

1993

2005

1997

Ramsar

Rotterdam

Stockholm

UNCCD

UNCLOS

UNFCCC

Cartagena

150

175

1973


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justice, but also makes good economic,environmental and social sense. Evidenceshows that finance schemes that target womencan have higher-than-usual payoffs andmore sustainable outcomes. Better access toeducation improves maternal health, creating

a better starting point for the next generation.

Innovations and emerging solutionsFor many problems, the benefits from earlyand ambitious action outweigh the costs.Scenarios on future global environmentalchanges suggest that implementing determinedaction in the present is cheaper than waitingfor better solutions to come along. Delayedaction also unfairly shifts the burden ofpaying such costs onto future generations,contradicting the principle of inter-generational

equity. In particular, recent IPCC reports aboutthe costs of inaction on climate change haveraised the alarm about the need for action,and suggest that immediate measures areaffordable for many countries. Innovativeapproaches are needed for society to makethe necessary transition to a sustainable, low-carbon economy.

A number of structural innovations couldform the basis of a more ambitious globalpolicy agenda to enable such a transition.

Contemporary approaches are moving, forexample, towards collective learning andadaptive management. Effective adaptivegovernancedepends on leadership andbridging organizations. Leaders areimperative for establishing a vision, buildingtrust, generating knowledge, initiatingpartnerships among relevant actors, managingconflicts, and mobilizing broad support forchange. Bridging organizations are oftenat the interface of scientific knowledgeand policy or of local experience andresearch and policy. They reduce the cost ofcollaboration significantly and often performimportant conflict resolution functions.

Adaptive governance approaches are wellplaced to manage uncertainty and periods ofchange. The rising price of oil, for example,has led to increased interest in other energysources. Broad-based energy policies may

benefit from an integrated multisectoralapproach that addresses both the need tomaintain biodiversity and vital ecosystemservices, and the need to mitigate and adaptto climate change.

Greater emphasis is also being placedon economic instruments (see Table 3for different types of instruments andapplications). Natural resources comparedto financial, material and human resources are the foundation for much of the wealthof countries. Managing this natural resourcesportfolio to maximize its returns and benefitsover time is good investment.

The policy options available to influenceeconomic drivers include green taxes, the

creation of markets for ecosystem services,and environmental accounting. Governmentsare beginning to gain experience inimplementing these instruments, althoughtypically only at relatively small scales.Learning by doing can help develop newpolicy approaches to move developmentdecisions in a sustainable direction.

Used properly, economic instruments providemarket corrections, promote productionefficiency or cost minimization, and facilitate

flexible responses to changing circumstances.They can help economic development tofoster environmental protection and vice-versa. Economic instruments may providesignals concerning resource scarcity andenvironmental damage which, in turn, cantrigger more-efficient resource use andwaste minimization. Instruments such asgreen taxes can raise revenues that may beused to improve environmental quality orreduce income taxes for the poor. Table 3provides some examples of various economicinstruments being applied to differentenvironmental sectors.

In ecological tax reform and tax shifting, taxeson energy use and the consumption of otherresources are increased, and correspondingreductions are often made on income tax.Although this has encountered stiff resistancefrom vested interests, ecological tax reforms have


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Table 3 Examples of economic instruments and applications

Property rights Market creationFiscalinstruments

Chargesystems

Financialinstruments

Liabilitysystems

Bonds anddeposits

Forests Communalrights

Concessionbuilding

Taxes androyalties

Reforestationincentives

Naturalresourceliability

Reforestationbonds, forestmanagementbonds

Waterresources

Water rights Water shares Capital gainstax

Water pricing

Waterprotectioncharges

Oceans andseas

Fishing rights,Individualtransferablequotas

Licensing

Oil spill bonds

Minerals Mining rights Taxes androyalties

Landreclamationbonds

Biodiversity

and wildlife

Patents

Prospectingrights

Transferable

developmentrights

Access fees

Charges for

scientifictourism

Natural

resourceliability

Waterpollution

Tradeableeffluent permits

Effluentcharges

Watertreatment fees

Low-interestloans

Land and soils Land rights,use rights

Property taxes,land-use taxes

Soilconservationincentives(such as loans)

Landreclamationbonds

Air pollution Tradeableemission permits

Emissioncharges

Technologysubsidies, low-interest loans

Hazardous

waste

Collection

charges

Deposit refund

systemsSolid waste Property taxes Technology

subsidies, low-interest loans

Toxicchemicals

Differentialtaxation

Legal liability,liabilityinsurance

Deposit refund

Climate Tradeableemissionentitlements

Tradeableforestprotectionobligations

Tradeable CO2permits

Tradeable CFCquotas

CFC quotaauction

Carbon offsets

Carbon taxes

BTU tax

CFCreplacementincentives

Forestcompacts

Humansettlements

Land rights Access fees

Tradeabledevelopmentquotas

Transferabledevelopmentrights

Property taxes,land-use taxes

Bettermentcharges

Developmentcharges

Land-usecharges

Road tolls

Import fees

Developmentcompletionbonds


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proved to be a stimulus for innovation and newemployment opportunities. When introducedgradually and in ways that are revenue-neutral and easy to administer, these reformsmay encourage environmentally consciousconsumption patterns without having significant

negative social distribution effects. Certaininstruments, such as carbon taxes, that have apotentially significant impact on industry andnational competitiveness, have been used bysome countries. To date, however, carbon taxeshave been introduced in only 12 countries, andtheir diffusion has been very slow.

A relatively new approach called paymentsfor environmental or ecosystem services (PES)attempts to address the overexploitationof ecosystems by paying the individuals

and communities that secure the supply ofecosystem services; the beneficiaries mustpay for the ser vices themselves. Costa Rica,Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico and other developingcountries have pioneered PES schemes for thepreservation of freshwater ecosystems, forestsand biodiversity. Many PES schemes haveoriginated in developed countries, particularlyin the US, where it is estimated that thegovernment spends at least US$1.7 billion a

year to induce farmers to protect land. Whilethe conservation goals may be laudable, the

trade-distorting nature of some agriculturalsubsidies also needs to be considered.

Three main markets are emerging forpayments for ecosystem services:n Watershed management, which may

include control of floods, erosion, accessto nutrients, sedimentation and waterquality, as well as maintenance of aquatichabitats and dry season flows;

n Biodiversity protection, which includeseco-labelled products, ecotourism andpayments for conservation of wildlifehabitat;

n Carbon sequestration, in which, forexample, international buyers pay to plantnew trees to absorb carbon, offsettingcarbon emissions elsewhere.

Indicative of the growing interest in marketmechanisms, the period from 1 January 2005

to 31 March 2006 witnessed a boomingglobal carbon market worth over US$10billion, 10 times the value of the previous

year and more than the value of the entireUS wheat crop in 2005 (US$7.1 billion).

Market failures are, however, not necessarilysolved solely through market solutions,A combination of market-based mechanismsand regulatory structures is often needed.The cap-and-trade model, in the caseof carbon emissions, is an example ofa regulatory framework defining overallemission limits before a market for emissioncredits can be established.

Experiences from global, regional, national and local initiatives that address complex

environmental issues across sectors have provided some valuable lessons on general principles for

public policy formulation and implementation.


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The GEO-4 conceptual framework is based on the drivers-pressures-state-impacts-responses (DPSIR) concept. It draws on different types of assessments that have taken

place over the years, including previous GEO reports, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MA),

especially with regard to the concepts of human well-being and ecosystem services. The framework reflects the key components of the complex chain of cause-and-

effect, taking place in space and time that characterizes the interactions between society and environment. Environmental changes are induced by drivers and caused

by pressures, but they do also affect each other. These changes interact with demographic, social and material factors in determining human well-being. Responses

include measures by society for mitigating and adapting to environmental changes. These processes take place at all spatial scales, from the global to the local.

state-and-trends (s):

time:

human society

l

r

gb

pressures (p):

drivers (d):

environment

responses (r) :

1987 2007 (-)2050 (-)

impacts (i):

2015 (-)r ok

GEO-4conceptual framework

Natural capital:atmosphere, land, water and biodiversity

Environmental impacts and change: Climate change and depletion of the stratospheric

ozone layer Biodiversity change Pollution, degradation and/or depletion of air,

water, minerals and land (including desertification)

e

-b Ecological services such as provisioning services(consumptive use), cultural services (non-consumptive use), regulating services andsupporting services (indirect use)

Non-ecosystem natural resources ie hydrocarbons,minerals and renewable energy

Stress, inter alia diseases, pests, radiationand hazards

d, () -b

c -bbroadly defined as human freedoms of choice andactions, to achieve, inter alia: Security Basic material needs Good health Good social relationswhich may result in human development or poverty,inequity and human vulnerability.

Formal and informal adaptation to, andmitigation of, environmental change (including

restoration) by altering human activity anddevelopment patterns within and between the D,

P and I boxes through inter alia: science andtechnology, policy, law and institutions.

n : Solar radiation Volcanoes Earthquakes

Human interventions in the environment: Land use Resource extraction External inputs (fertilizers, chemicals, irrigation) Emissions (pollutants and waste) Modification and movement of organisms

Human development: Demographics Economic processes (consumption, production,

markets and trade) Scientific and technological innovation Distribution pattern processes (inter- and intra-

generational) Cultural, social, political and institutional (including

production and service sectors) processes

m, h s c


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Reference sources:

Figure 1: Our shrinking EarthFAOSTAT (2006). FAO Statistical Databases. Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations, Rome; http://faostat.fao.org/faostat/ (last accessed 10 July 2007); WTO (2007). StatisticsDatabase. World Trade Organization, Geneva; http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm (last accessed 9 July2007); GEO Data Portal. UNEPs online core database withnational, sub-regional, regional and global statistics and maps,covering environmental and socio-economic data and indicators.

United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva; http://www.unep.org/geo/data or http://geodata.grid.unep.ch (last accessed10 July 2007); UNPD (2007). World Population Prospects: the2006 Revision Highlights. United Nations Department of Socialand Economic Affairs, Population Division, New York, NY (inGEO Data Portal); World Bank (2006). World DevelopmentIndicators 2006. The World Bank, Washington, DC (in GEO DataPortal); UNFCCC-CDIAC (2006). Greenhouse Gases Database.United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (in GEO Data Portal);FAOSTAT (2004). FAO Statistical Databases. Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations, Rome (in GEO Data Portal)http://faostat.fao.org/faostat/ (last accessed 10 July 2007)

Figure 2: Seasonal melting of the Greenland Ice SheetSteffen, K. and Huff, R. (2005). Greenland Melt Extent, 2005 http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005 (lastaccessed 11 April 2007)

Figure 3: Premature deaths due to outdoor urban PM 10 exposureby region in 2000Cohen, A. J., Anderson, H. R., Ostro, B., Pandey, K., Krzyzanowski,M., Knzli, N., Gutschmidt, K., Pope, C. A., Romieu, I., Samet,J. M. and Smith, K. R. (2004). Mortality impacts of urban airpollution. In Comparative quantification of health risks: global andregional burden of disease attributable to selected major risk factorVol. 2, Chapter 17. World Health Organization, Geneva

Figure 4: Coastal population and shoreline degradationAdapted from: Vital Water Graphics. Coastal population andshoreline degradation. UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and GraphicsLibrary http://maps.grida.no/go/collection/CollectionID/70ED5480-E824-413F-9B63-A5914EA7CCA1 (last accessed27 April 2007); based on: Harrison, P. and Pearce, F. (2001).AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment. American Associationfor the Advancement of Science. University of California Press,California http://www.ourplanet.com/aaas/pages/about.html(last accessed 27 April 2007); Burke L., Kura Y., Kassem K.,

Revenga C., Spalding M.D. and McAllister D., Pilot Analysis ofGlobal Ecosystems: Coastal Ecosystems, 2001. World ResourcesInstitute, Washington DC

Figure 5: The Global Ocean ConveyorIPCC (1996). Climate change 1995: Impacts, adaptationsand mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses.Contribution of Working Group II to the Second AssessmentReport. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge

Figure 6: Status of terrestrial ecoregionsWWF (2006). Conservation Status of Terrestrial Ecoregions.World Wide Fund for Nature, Gland; http://www.panda.org/about_wwf/where_we_work/ecoregions/maps/index.cfm (lastaccessed 8 May 2007)

Figure 7: Trend in use of passenger carsGEO Data Portal. UNEPs online core database with national,sub-regional, regional and global statistics and maps, coveringenvironmental and socio-economic data and indicators. UnitedNations Environment Programme, Geneva http://www.unep.org/geo/data or http://geodata.grid.unep.ch (last accessed 1 June2007); UNSD (2005). UN Statistics Division Transport StatisticsDatabase, UN Statistical Yearbook. United Nations, New York,NY (in GEO Data Portal)

Figure 8: Trends in total greenhouse gas emissionsEEA (2007). Europes Environment: the Fourth Assessment. EuropeanEnvironment Agency, Copenhagen; Adapted from: UNFCCC-CDIAC(2006). Greenhouse Gases Database. United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide InformationAnalysis Centre (in GEO Data Portal); http://unfccc.int/ghg_

emissions_data/items/3800.php (last accessed 16 May 2007)

Note:EU-25(Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain,Sweden, the United Kingdom, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia,Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia)

EFTA:(Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland)

EE&C:(Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, Belarus, Republic ofMold

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