In the name of God,the Compassionate, the merciful

The Role of drought monitoring & management in improving NAPs implementation

West Asia

Hossein Badripour

Forest, Range and Watershed management Organization,

Tehran, I.R.Iran

badripour@yahoo.com

I.R.Iran at a glance:• Area: 1,648,195 km2

• 28 provinces (293 cities)

• Population: 60,055,488 (50.81% men and 49.18% women) year 1996

• Number of families: 12,398,235

• Urban: 64%

• Rural: 36%

• Mean altitude: 1,200 m ( Caspian sea -28 m & Mount Damavand 5,677m)

Climate:

• Locates in world arid zone.

• 65% of the country is arid and hyper arid zone

• 85% of the country is semi arid, arid and hyper arid zone

Land Resources:

• Rangelands:90 mh (55%);• Forests: 12.4 m.h ( 7.4%);• Deserts: 34 m.h (20%)• Settlements, infrastructures, water bodies: 10.1 m.h• 33 million hectares have average to good capacity for

cultivation while:• Just 18.5 million hectares are cultivated.• 8.5 million hectares are irrigated (irrigated farming 5.2

mh and irrigated gardens 1.1 mh and irrigated fallows 2.2 mh)

• 10 million hectares rainfed

Farmings:

• From 10 m.h annual crops (in 2000), some 7 m.h or 68% was cereal cultivation. 54% irrigated;46% rainfed;

• Cereal production was 28.76% of annual crops;• Wheat , barley and rice the most common,

respectively producing 62.87%,15.32% and 13.11% of the cereals;

• Wheat is cultivated on 72.75% of cereal farms

Rainfall

• Mean rainfall: 246mm• 13% country less than 100 mm• Some places receive 1,000 to 2,000 m• Total water: 413 billion cubic meter• 6 main watersheds, namely: The Caspian Sea,

the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, Urumieh Lake, the central Plateau, Eastern border region and Ghare-Ghoom .

13%

61%

17%

8%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

<100mm 100-250mm 250-500mm 500-1000mm >1000mm

Distribution of Rainfall in IranDistribution of Rainfall in Iran

As you can see the percentage covering the range between 100-250mm is the highestIn the country

Variation of Mean Annual Rainfall

Mean annual precipitatuon of the country from 1968 to 2002

322308

181

337

199

282

158

238

339

202

331

205

314

195

148

178

231

254

204

177

262

236 240

239

243

270

265

265 287

186

238223

314

283

261

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

68-6

969

-70

Sem

i arid

70-7

1 D

roug

ht

71-7

272

-73

Dro

ught

73-7

4

74-7

5

75-7

6

76-7

7

77-7

8

78-7

9

79-8

0

80-8

1

81-8

2

82-8

383

-84

Dro

ught

84-8

5 S

emi d

roug

ht

85-8

6

86-8

7

87-8

888

-89D

roug

ht

89-9

0

90-9

1

91-9

2

92-9

393

-94

Sem

i dro

ught

94-9

5

95-9

696

-97

Sem

i dro

ught

97-9

898

-99S

emi d

roug

ht99

-200

0 D

roug

ht20

00-0

1 D

roug

ht

2001

-02

2002

-03

year

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)

Degraded area 1951-91

Year 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991

Degraded land

(x 1000 ha)

9 15 81 149 1007

Drought:

• Multi-faceted concept

• Needs precise and objective definition.

• Water shortages

• Is an inevitable part of normal climate fluctuation and should be considered as a recurring environmental feature which must be included in planning

•Meteorological

•Hydrological

•Environmental

•Agricultural

•Socio-economic

Drought aspects:

Every 2.5 years or 4 years out of 10,

Frequency of climatological drought occurrence ( no regard to the severity)

Climatological Droughts in a 10 -years period

Probability of drought occurrence is 40%

year 1 Mild drought:

year 1 Moderate drought:

Severe drought: 1 year 1 year : drought Very severe

Drought impacts

Indirect and direct impacts

Long term - short term impacts

social and economic impacts

• Meteorological

• Agricultural

• hydrologicalClassification of impacts

• Economic

• Social

• Environmental

At micro level

Community level

At macro level

On macro variables

On sectors and sub-sectors

Other economic impacts

-Vegetation changes in 1995-6 and 2001-2

Relation between Drought, Poverty and land degradation

poverty Land degradation

Drought Poverty

Measuring Drought

Composite Indices

-Crop moisture index

-Palmer index

- Keetch index

Single data - Precipitation

- Temperature

- Stream flow

Remote sensing-NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)

-VCI (Vegetation Condition index)

-Prediction

Impr

oved

Dat

a av

aila

bilit

y

Bet

ter U

nder

stan

ding

of v

aria

bilit

y

1980’s

1900’s

1960’s

The indices used by USDA:

Palmer Drought Severity IndexCrop Moisture IndexStandardized Precipitation IndexPercent of normal rainfallDaily stream flowSnow packSoil moistureDaily soil moisture anomalyVegetation and Temperature Condition IndexStream flow forecasts

Drought IndicesDrought Indices

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Complex function of rainfall and evaporation. Better for large areas of uniform topography.

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Based entirely on rainfall data. Flexible – applies to various durations. Measures rainfall deficiency in a common currency – standard deviation units. Could be used to compare different regions. Simple and popular.

Deciles Based entirely on rainfall data. Level of dryness is expressed in scores related to cumulative statistical distribution of rainfall.

Percent of normal Based on rainfall. Most straightforward. Region-specific.

Many more exist. New indices continue to emerge.

Relation of time and amount of forage yield on rangeland Forage yield

(Lb per acre)

Rainfall in the growing period July- September (inch) Total Rainfall(inch) Year

230 5.5 9.8 79

98 3.8 9 80

230 6.2 10.4 81

76 5 9.8 82

50 3.2 8.7 83

128 5 13.6 84

218 7 13.2 85

483 7.9 17 86

184 6.2 9.4 87

310 7 11.8 88

189 4 7.6 89

270 7.5 10.7 90

488 7.2 15.1 91

750 4.9 15.4 92

3/20 5.3 9.9 93

6 2 7 94

59 4 6.7 95

145 5 7.9 96

284 5.5 11.6 97

173 3.8 8.2 98

229 5.3 10.6 Average

Comparison of drought maps based on SPI and RDI in 1997-8

Spatial pattern of Deciles in 1997-8Spatial pattern of SPI in 1997-8

How to manage drought?

– Preparedness (Before drought outbreaks);– Crisis management (during drought);– Relief assistance (After drought).

A 10-Step Process[1

• 1 Appoint a Drought Task Force• 2 State the Purpose and Objectives of the Drought Plan;• 3 Seek Stakeholder Participation and Resolve Conflict;• 4 Inventory Resources and Identify Groups at Risk;• 5 Develop Organizational Structure and Prepare Drought Plan;• 6 Integrate Science and Policy, Close Institutional Gaps;• 7 Publicize the Proposed Plan, Solicit Reaction;• 8 Implement the Plan;• 9 Develop Education Programs;• 10 Post-Drought Evaluation•

[1]Donald A. Wilhite;Michael J. Hayes; Cody Knutson; Kelly Helm Smith•

The Cycle of Disaster Management (Source : Dr. Donald Wilhite, NDMC, University of Nebraska – Lincoln)

Components of Drought for Risk Management

(natural event)

Meteorological drought

(social factors)

- Population growth - Technology change- Land use practices- Environment degradation- Water use trends- Government policies- Public awareness

Risk Management Approach

Monitoring

CONTINUOUS IN-DEPTH INVESTIGATION OF RISKS

AND POSSIBLE MEASURES TO REDUCE LOSSES AND

VULNERABILITY

ControlLoss preventionLoss reductionRisk retention

Risk transferInsuranceNon-insurance

AnalysisDurationFrequencySeverityPotential loss

IdentificationIdentify riskQuantify risk

Drought Monitoring based on Network System of Stations

By examining many of the drought indices based on network system of stations, we can get a grasp on the possibility of encroaching drought conditions. By examining such drought-related scales as the Percent of Normal, SPI, Crop Moisture Index, Surface Water Supply Index, and the Drought Monitor, an idea of present conditions and forecasts are at our fingertips.

Drought monitoring can . . .

Improve detection of drought onset / termination and early warning

Provide information for anticipating drought impacts and be better prepared to face it

improve self reliance and public awareness

DROUGHT MONITORING

Monitoring with satellites:

• Satellite imagery is increasingly applying in monitoring drought conditions through vegetation indices and other approaches

• Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) • Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) • Temprature Conditon Index (TCI)• Standardized Vegetation Index (SVI)• Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI)• Relative Greenness (RG)• Vegetation Temperature Condition Index (VTCI)• Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)• NDVI Deviation of long-term mean (DEV)• Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI)• Ratio Drought Index (RDI)• Rapid Indicator of the Drought (RID)• Vegetation-Temperature Index (VTI)• Difference Vegetation Index (DVI)• Transformed Normalized Vegetation Index (TNDVI)• Perpendicular Vegetation Index (PVI)

Assessment of Vegetation Cover Condition Using Remote Sensing

Integrated Drought/Climate Monitoring.It is critical that an integrated approach to climate monitoring be employed to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the status of climate and water supply. Too often, drought severity is expressed only in terms of precipitation departures from normal, neglecting information about soil moisture, reservoir and ground water levels, stream flow, snow pack, and vegetation health. Seasonal climate forecasts may also provide valuable information regarding whether conditions are likely to improve or deteriorate in the coming months. Use of multiple climate indices and parameters provides monitoring specialists with an assortment of tools, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. Understanding these strengths and weaknesses will provide a scientific basis for accepting or rejecting indicators. By comparing multiple drought indicators, the relationships between these indices/tools will be better understood.

Monitoring Unit

• Adopt a workable definition of drought which should be defined by a multi-disciplinary ad-hoc working group. The group may need to adopt more than one definition of drought in identifying impacts in various economic, social, and environmental sectors because no single definition of drought applies in all cases. For example for the irrigated farming, the definition and indices differ from those which can be used for rainfed regions.

The definition is important because it can be used to phase in and phase out levels of local or provincial, and national actions in response to drought

Monitoring Unit

• Develop a data collecting system for compiling historic and real-time weather, streamflow, groundwater, reservoir and soil information from various national and provincial agencies such as MOE, IRIMO. The system can also include the local extension centers all over the country for providing information on the status of plant growth.

• Inventory other data collection networks. In addition to MOE and IRIMO networks, other networks also exist and may provide critical information for a portion of a province or region.

The outcome of these indices + some other helpful ones:

• Drought Monitoring System

The basic components of Drought plan:• Monitoring

• Early warning

• Impact assessment

• Preparedness

• Response

• Recovery

• Mitigation

Conclussion

When efficient drought monitoring and management system has been established, less people and environemnt would be vulnerable to drought.

Resilient environments is equal to IMPROVEMET OF UNCCD MANDATE.

National Strategy & action plan on Drought preparedness, Management and Mitigation

The TCP/IRA/3003 (A) National strategy and Action plan on drought preparedness, Management and Mitigation in the agricultural Sector :

Thanks for your attention