Measurement and Evaluation of energy savings in households and road transport in the UK

Dan StaniaszekDirector of Evaluation, Energy Saving Trust

3 March 2005

In support of the Directive...

“The cheapest, cleanest and safest way of addressing our energy policy objectives is to use less energy”

Source:- UK Government ENERGY WHITE PAPER “Our energy future - creating a low carbon

economy”, February 2003

Examples of Monitoring and Verification Tools in practice

• The Energy Efficiency Commitment

• Homes Energy Efficiency Database

• A Transport Example

• Periodic overview

What is the Energy Efficiency Commitment?

• An obligation on energy suppliers/retailers (electricity and gas) to achieve an energy saving target through household energy efficiency

• Overall target set by Government; apportioned to individual suppliers according to their size

• Administration and verification carried out by Energy Regulator (Ofgem)

Meeting the EEC Target• Target is energy savings

• Different fuels weighted by Carbon content

• Individual measures assigned an energy saving score - derived from engineering data, models and empirical research

EEC - Verification in Practice

• Energy suppliers submit reports to Ofgem on individual energy efficiency initiatives

• Ofgem audits a random sample of each supplier scheme to check eligibility, measures in place, savings estimates realistic etc.

• Government directly funds monitoring work to verify/refine energy savings (NB used to be built into the EEC programme costs)

What is the Homes Energy Efficiency Database (HEED)?

• A repository of installed/purchased energy efficiency measures throughout the UK

• A means to assist in monitoring and reporting the uptake of energy efficiency

• A means to assist in targeting of effort

HEED – key features

Database that records at individual property level:-

• Physical characteristics of individual homes• Energy efficiency measures installed• Potential for energy efficiency measures • History of improvements – all measures date-

stamped • Capacity to store all 25 million UK properties

Two main types of data

Measures HEED Surveys

Typical Data Sources

• Energy suppliers• Government fuel poverty schemes• Energy Advice Centres• Local authorities/Housing Associations• Energy Saving Trust programmes• Retail outlets & appliance manufacturers• House builders• Home Condition Reports

HEEData Online• An online tool replacing ‘stand alone’ version• Integrates with postcode address matching• Scheme specific configuration (eg EEC,

Warm Front)• Data stored at EST• Release April/May 2005

Typical Evaluation methodology for programmes run by EST• Assess current market situation – key drivers,

barriers etc• Programme rationale and objectives• Quantify key outputs – grants, number of

consumers advised, web contacts, funding allocated etc

• Undertake surveys of programme participants (and if appropriate, non-participants)

An example from Transport

• Review of Emissions Savings from PowerShift Programme (grants for cleaner fuelled vehicles)

• Similar methodology used for CleanUp (primarily an air quality programme)

PowerShift Evaluation – Methodology

• PowerShift funds many different vehicle and technology combinations (390 in 03-04 FY)

• ‘Comparator’ vehicles defined to give a baseline• Emissions benefits per km (c.f. comparator vehicles)• Annual mileages and vehicle lifetimes defined by:

– use of published data– direct survey of fleet operators & local authorities

• Emissions savings adjusted to account for in-use deterioration and emission testing results

PowerShift Performance Since 1997

Total Lifetime Carbon Saving, and Vehicles Funded

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04

Year

Life

time

Car

bon

Savi

ngs

(tonn

es)

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Num

ber o

f Fun

ded

Vehi

cles

Carbon SavingVehicle Numbers

PowerShift Performance Since 1997 (2)Total Lifetime NOx and PM Saving

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04Year

Life

time

NO

x Sa

ving

s (k

g)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Life

time

PM S

avin

gs (k

g)

NOx SavingPM Saving

All UK

Carbon Cost-Effectiveness By Technology Type

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04

Year

Car

bon

Save

d (k

g/£)

LPG Carbon kg/£Nat Gas Carbon kg/£Electric Carbon kg/£Hybrid Carbon kg/£

PowerShift Cost-Effectiveness by Technology (kgC/£)

PowerShift Lifetime Emissions Savings (tonnes)

03-04 FY Programme to date (97-04)Carbon 21,657 26,506NOx 1,233 2,599PM 71 180

Cost-Effectiveness of Emissions Savings03-04 FY Programme to date (97-04)

Carbon(£/tonne) £355 £991

NOx (£/kg) £6 £10PM (£/kg) £108 £146

Bringing it all together

• Government in the process of reviewing the Climate Change Programme

– progress since 2000;– Need for policies to meet 2010 goals

• Evaluation of individual policies (historic or existing)• Appraisal of potential new policies • Analysts peer review individual results• Collective assessment/comparison to identify

synergies/overlaps • Due to report Summer 2005

Concluding Remarks

• Monitoring and Verification of savings is both doable and necessary

• Difficulties and uncertainties exist, but no “show stoppers”

• Practitioners (eg EST and other agencies across EU) have many years of experience

• The Directive would provide the impetus for greater consistency and sharing of expertise

• Clearer evidence-base for energy efficiency savings will establish a more level playing field between energy supply and demand side options