In 2017 Arizona’s community colleges embraced a Strategic Vision for 2030, which focuses college effortsaround three major goals: expanding access to postsecondary credentials; increasing transfer andcompletion of associate degrees and certificates; and improving alignment between college programs andworkforce needs.

The Strategic Vision for 2030 builds upon the colleges’ previous long-term plan, published in 2011, andoutlines how Arizona’s ten community college districts will continue to improve student outcomes, aswell as how the districts contribute to Arizona’s broader economic and educational goals. In particular,the Strategic Vision for 2030 creates a framework for reaching the Achieve60AZ goal that by 2030, 60% ofthe Arizona working-age population will hold a postsecondary credential.

A major function of the Strategic Vision for 2030 is the collection, analysis, and publication of datapertaining to 33 short-term, mid-range, long-term, and follow-up metrics. The majority of these metricshave been in place for years, making it possible to evaluate trends in student progress and outcomes.

Statewide and district-level data will continue to be used to guide improvement efforts at communitycolleges across the state. Statewide data will also be shared with the Arizona Board of Regents, theArizona Department of Education, and Arizona’s workforce development and business communities inorder to assist in the improvement of educational and economic pathways.

The Strategic Vision for 2030, as well as a Technical Guide that provides detailed definitions of each metric,can be found online at: www.arizonacommunitycolleges.org.

STRATEGIC VISION FOR 20301

METRICS

The 2019 Strategic Vision Outcomes Reportpresents data related to 33 short-term, mid-range, long-term, and follow-up metrics. Thesedata identify areas of strength, as well as placeswhere Arizona’s community colleges will need tofocus their efforts in order to expand access,increase transfer and completion, and improvealignment with workforce needs.

Short-term metrics correspond to enrollmentrates, cost measures, and training for high-demand occupations.

Mid-range metrics examine student persistenceand success in the first two years of college.

Long-term metrics pertain to transfer andcompletion rates.

Follow-up metrics examine student success afterdeparting the community college and may beaffected by economic forces, as well as theactions of Arizona universities.

COHORTS

The 2019 Strategic Vision Outcomes Report tracksseveral cohorts of students.

2016 and 2012 New Student Cohorts are used toexamine student persistence and success aftertwo and six years, respectively.

2016 and 2012 Credential-Seeking Sub-Cohorts,defined as cohort members who earned at least12 credits by the end of their second year, areused for some retention, transfer, and completionmeasures. Credential-seeking sub-cohortsprovide a more accurate gauge of studentsuccess, as they take into account learners’diverse education and training goals.

2015-16 Occupational Cohort, comprised ofstudents who exited a community college in2015-16 after completing a specified number ofcredits in an occupational pathway, is used infollow-up metrics related to wage growth andearning industry-recognized credentials.

METRICS AND COHORTS 2

3Expand Access:

Short-Term Metrics

Metrics 1 and 2: FTSE and Total Enrollment

Statewide, total annual enrollment at Arizona’scommunity colleges has declined from itsrecession-era high in 2010-11, although full-timestudent equivalent (FTSE) enrollment hasstabilized. Despite this enrollment decline, whichmirrors national trends, Arizona’s communitycolleges have increased the annual number ofdegrees and certificates awarded (see metric 19).

Metrics 3 and 4: Enrollment of ABE/GEDand Dual Credit Learners

Across Arizona, total annual enrollment in AdultBasic Education (ABE) and/or General EducationalDevelopment (GED) courses reached 18,527 in2017-18. Total annual enrollment of high schoollearners in dual credit courses rose to 26,962.These programs are essential in expanding accessto Arizona’s community colleges.

18,216 18,686 18,527

25,126 25,216 26,962

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Number of ABE/GED Learners Number of Dual Credit Learners

135,789 141,474 128,085 116,494 113,426

384,174 374,120

334,783

302,594 291,098

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

FTSE Enrollment Total Enrollment

Metric 6: Percent of Credit Hours Earned Via Alternative Times or Places

At Arizona’s community colleges, only 35% ofinstruction in 2017-18 occurred in traditionalsemester-length courses held on campusMonday through Friday, 8am to 5pm. Extendingaccess to many diverse populations, 65% of allstudent credit hours were earned online, at nightor on the weekends, or at skills centers, AmericanIndian reservations, or other locales.

Expand Access: Short-Term Metrics

4

Metric 5: Enrollment of Underserved Populations

The percentage of Arizona community collegestudents who are members of an historicallyunderserved racial/ethnic group has increasedsubstantially and now exceeds the percentage ofthe state belonging to an underserved population(43%).¹ Arizona’s colleges enroll more adultlearners than the national average (33%), butfewer Pell recipients (38%).²

61% 62% 64% 63% 63% 63% 64% 65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Alternative Times/Places Standard Times/Places

41%

35%34%

46%

33%28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-28

Age 25+ Underserved Populations Pell Recipients

Metric 8: Cost of Attendance as a Percentage of Median Household Income

At roughly $7,200 per year, the median net priceof attending Arizona’s community colleges is just13% of the state’s median household income.This rate mirrors the national comparison (14%)and is substantially lower than Arizona’s publicuniversities (24-29%),³ making the communitycolleges excellent and affordable options forpostsecondary education and training.

5Expand Access:

Short-Term Metrics

Metric 7: Community College-Going Rate

While the rate has declined, Arizona’s communitycolleges enroll a much higher percentage (34%)of recent high school graduates than the nationalaverage (23%).² The vast majority of thesestudents enroll in their local community collegedistrict. Arizona’s community colleges willcontinue to work with the Arizona Board ofregents to improve college-going across the state.

24%

29%

26%28%

21%

24%

16%14%15%13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

UA NAU ASU US CCs AZ CCs

46%

34%

26%23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Arizona United States

Metrics 11 and 12:Success After Developmental Education

After six years, over half of developmental Englishor reading learners in the 2012 New StudentCohort successfully completed a college-levelcourse in English, and 31% of developmentalmath learners in the same cohort completed acollege-level math course. These success afterdevelopmental education rates are similar tonational averages.⁴

Expand Access: Mid-Range Metrics

6

Metrics 9 and 10: Developmental Course Success Rates

Over two years, 77% of student credit hoursattempted in developmental English or readingby the 2016 New Student Cohort weresuccessfully completed (with a grade of A, B, C, orPass). In that same time period, 63% of studentcredit hours attempted in developmental mathby the same cohort were successfully completed(with a grade of A, B, C, or Pass).

63% 63%

77% 77%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016

Developmental Math Developmental English/Reading

47%51%

31% 31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Success After Developmental English/Reading

Success After Developmental Math

Metric 14: Percent of First College-Level Math and English Credit Hours Completed

In 2017-18, between 65% and 80% of studentcredit hours attempted in College Algebra,English Composition I and II, and Speech weresuccessfully completed (with a grade of A, B, C, orPass). The rates at which Arizona’s communitycollege students successfully complete these firstcollege-level courses mirror or exceedcorresponding national averages.⁵

7Increase Transfer and Completion:

Mid-Range Metrics

Metric 13: College-Level Course Success Rate

Over two years, 79% of student credit hoursattempted in college-level courses by the 2016New Student Cohort were successfully completed(with a grade of A, B, C, or Pass). This rate hasremained steady over the past several years.

75%72% 74% 76% 76%

80% 79% 79%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

73%

80%

72%

76%

70%

75%

61%

65%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Speech English Comp. II English Comp. I College Algebra

Metrics 17 and 18:Retention Rates

Ninety-one percent of the 2016 Credential-Seeking Cohort (excluding those who transferredand/or earned a degree or certificate) persistedto spring 2017, and 77% of them returned thefollowing fall. Arizona’s retention rates aresubstantially higher than the 54%⁷ reported as anational comparison, in part because the nationalfigure is not limited to credential-seekers.

Increase Transfer and Completion: Mid-Range Metrics

Metrics 15 and 16: Percent of Learners Attaining Two-Year Credit Thresholds

By the end of their second year, 52% of part-timelearners in the 2016 Credential-Seeking Cohorthad completed 24 credits, and 47% of full-timelearners in the same cohort had completed 42credits. Although there is room for improvement,these rates are notable, as research has linkedattainment of credit thresholds to higherpersistence and completion rates.⁶

8

51% 52%

45%47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Part-Time Learners Completing 24 Credits

Full-Time Learners Completing 42 Credits

93% 91%

77% 77%

51% 54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AZ Fall-to-Spring AZ Fall-to-Fall U.S. Fall-to-Fall

Metric 20: Graduation (Degree/Certificate Completion) Rate

After six years, 33% of the 2012 Credential-Seeking Cohort had completed a degree orcertificate. Arizona’s graduation rate issubstantially higher than the most recentnational comparison (23%),² in part because thenational number is not limited to credential-seekers.

9Increase Transfer and Completion:

Long-Term Metrics

Metric 19:Degrees and Certificates Awarded

Between 2011 and 2018, the number of degreesand certificates awarded by Arizona’s communitycolleges increased by 25% to 43,758, despitedeclining enrollments. Of the 2017 total, 44%were degrees and 56% were certificates. Thesedata reflect a concerted effort by Arizona’scommunity colleges to increase the number oflearners earning postsecondary credentials.

30%33%

25%23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Arizona United States

42%42% 43% 42% 43% 43% 44% 44%

34,944

39,696 40,13442,206 43,198 43,877

42,56243,758

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Degrees Awarded (19,283 in 2018) Certificates Awarded (24,475 in 2018)

Metric 22:AGEC Completion Rate

Statewide, 21% of the 2012 Credential-SeekingCohort completed an AGEC within 6 years, a 31%increase from the 2005 Cohort. Increasing theAGEC completion rate—a key priority for thestate’s community colleges—will not only easetransfer to Arizona’s public universities but alsohelp students earn bachelor’s degrees in lesstime and with fewer excess credits.⁸

Increase Transfer and Completion: Long-Term Metrics

Metric 21: AGECs Awarded

In 2017-18, Arizona’s community collegesawarded 12,026 Arizona General EducationCurriculum (AGEC) certificates, an increase fromprevious years. The AGEC is comprised of 35-37credit hours of coursework that, uponcompletion, transfer to all public colleges anduniversities in the state and fulfill lower division,general education requirements.

10

11,312 10,956

12,026

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

16% 16% 17%19% 19% 19%

20% 21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Metrics 25 and 26: Transfer Rates

Despite a slight drop in the statewide transferrate to public universities among ASSIST TransferBehavior Cohorts, the overall transfer rate (thepercent of learners in credential-seeking cohortswho transfer to any four-year college oruniversity within 6 years) has remained steady at28%. Both rates are similar to or higher than themost recent national average (25%).⁹

11Increase Transfer and Completion:

Long-Term Metrics

Metrics 23 and 24: In-State Transfersand Percent with AGEC and/or Degree

Between 2010 and 2018, the number of studentstransferring from Arizona’s community collegesto an in-state, public university increased by 11%to 10,257, despite declining enrollments. Inaddition, the percentage of transfers who earnedan AGEC and/or degree prior to transferring hasincreased, indicating that the transfer process isbecoming more efficient and cost effective.

51%52%

59% 59% 59% 60% 60% 60% 61%

9,201 9,777

10,141 10,315 10,507 10,696 10,821 10,853 10,257

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Transferred with AGEC and/or Degree Transferred without AGEC and/or Degree

28% 28%28%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

To all Four-Year Colleges and Universities (Credential-Seeking Cohorts)

To Arizona Universities (ASSIST Transfer Behavior Cohorts)

Metric 27 : Percent of LearnersAchieving a Successful Outcome

Statewide, 61% of learners in the 2012 Credential-Seeking Cohort achieved a successful outcomewithin 6 years. Because community college learners enter college with diverse education andtraining goals, and because they often attend part-time and/or earn credits from more than oneinstitution, several national accountability initiatives—including the Student AchievementMeasure—have broadened the definition of a successful outcome to include earning a degree orcertificate, transferring to another two- or four-year college or university, or continued enrollment.Nationally, 57% of all community college students (62% of full-timers and 55% of part-timers)achieve one of these successful outcomes within 6 years.¹⁰

Increase Transfer and Completion: Long-Term Metrics

12

61%

64%

66%

65%

61%

60%

61%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Awarded a Degree/Certificate Transferred - No Degree/Certificate

Still Enrolled After 6 Years

61%

61%

64%

66%

65%

61%

60%

61%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Awarded a Degree/Certificate Transferred - No Degree/Certificate

Still Enrolled After 6 Years

Metric 29: Percent of All TransfersEarning Bachelor’s Degrees

Statewide, 49% of 2014-15 transfers from Arizonacommunity colleges to all four-year institutions—public and private, in-state and out—earned abachelor’s degree within four years. Somewhatlower than the national average (60%),¹¹ thispercentage may reflect a high incidence of part-time attendance after transfer.

13Increase Transfer and Completion:

Follow-Up Metrics

Metric 28: Percent of Full-Time Transfers toAZ Universities Earning Bachelor’s Degrees

Sixty-nine percent of all 2014-15 full-timetransfers from Arizona community colleges to in-state, public universities earned a bachelor’sdegree within four years. This rate has remainedrelatively steady in recent years and indicatesthat most full-time transfers are graduating fromthe state’s public universities in a timely manner.

70% 70% 69% 68% 70% 69% 71% 69%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

60% 60%

36%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

United States Arizona

Increase Transfer and Completion: Follow-Up Metrics

14

Metric 30: Estimated Percent of the Arizona Working-Age Population with a Postsecondary Credential

In 2018, an estimated 46.2% of the Arizona working-agepopulation (residents aged 25-64) held a workforce certificate,associate degree, or bachelor’s or higher degree (up from41.8% in 2014). Arizona’s community colleges are workingclosely with the Arizona Board of Regents and otherpostsecondary institutions across the state to reach theAchieve60AZ goal that by 2030, 60% of the Arizona working-age population will hold a postsecondary credential.

41.8%46.2%

45.3%47.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Arizona Actual United States Actual

Arizona Projected United States Projected

Metric 32: Percent of Occupational LearnersEarning Industry-Recognized Credentials

Out of all learners in the 2015-16 OccupationalCohort who took a technical skill or end-of-program assessment up to one year after collegeexit, 94% passed the assessment and/or earnedan industry-recognized credential. Examples ofoccupational programs leading to industry-recognized credentials include nursing, EMT,construction, solar technologies, and fire science.

15Improve Alignment:

Short-Term and Follow-Up Metrics

Metric 31:FTSE Enrollment in Occupational Courses

Across Arizona, FTSE enrollment in occupationalcourses declined slightly to 39,523 in 2017-18.Many of these enrollments were in degree orcertificate programs associated with the highest-demand occupations in the state, including(among others) nurses, preschool teachers,computer support specialists, web developers,and medical or dental assistants.

43,570

39,523

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2016-17 2017-18

94% 94%

82% 83%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Arizona United States

Improve Alignment: Short-Term and Follow-Up Metrics

16

Metric 33: Percent of the 25 Highest-Demand Occupations in Arizona requiring more than a High School Diploma but less than a Bachelor’s Degree

for which Community Colleges offer Degree and/or Certificate Programs

Arizona’s community colleges offer degree and/or certificate programs that trainworkers for 24 of the 25 highest-demand occupations in the state. For many of thefastest-growing sectors of the workforce, (e.g., medical and nursing assistants,computer support specialists, EMTs and paramedics, teacher assistants, andpreschool teachers), nearly every community college district in the state offers aprogram.

√ Medical Assistants √ Radiologic Technologists

√ Nursing Assistants √ Paralegals and Legal Assistants

√ Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers √ Respiratory Therapists

√ Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers √ Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

√ Computer User Support Specialists √ Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians

√ Teacher Assistants √ Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics

√ Dental Assistants √ Computer Network Support Specialists

√ Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses √ Dental Hygienists

√ Medical Records and Health Information Technicians √ Diagnostic Medical Sonographers

√ Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks √ Massage Therapists

√ Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education Psychiatric Technicians

√ Health Technologists and Technicians √ Surgical Technologists

√ Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics

17Strategic Vision Data:

Sources and Attributions

¹U.S. Bureau of the Census. (2018). American Community Survey, 2013-17 5-year estimates. Washington, DC: Author.²U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2018). Digest of education statistics.Washington, DC: Author.³U.S. Bureau of the Census. (2018). American Community Survey, 2013-17 5-year estimates. Washington, DC: Author;U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2019). College navigator. Washington, DC:Author.⁴Bailey, T., Jeong, D. W., & Cho, S. W. (2010). Referral, enrollment, and completion in developmental educationsequences in community colleges. Economics of Education Review, 29, 155-270.⁵National Community College Benchmark Project. (2018). Report of national aggregate data. Overland Park, KS:Author.⁶Moore, C., Shulock, N., & Offenstein, J. (2009). Steps to success: Analyzing milestone achievement to improvecommunity college student outcomes. Sacramento: California State University, Institute for Higher EducationLeadership and Policy.⁷NCHEMS. (2015). Retention rates - First-time college freshmen returning their second year (two-year publicinstitutions). Boulder, CO: Author.⁸Kisker, C. B., & Wagoner, R. L. (2013). Implementing transfer associate degrees. Perspectives from the states. Newdirections for community colleges, no. 160. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.⁹Community College Research Center, Teachers College, Columbia University. (2015). What we know about transfer.Research overview. New York: Author.¹⁰National Student Clearinghouse. (2017). Snapshot report: Yearly success and progress rates (two-year publics, first-time, full-time and first-time, part-time). Herndon, VA: Author.¹¹National Student Clearinghouse. (2012). Snapshot report: Transfer outcomes (four years after transfer). Herndon, VA:Author.