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IMPROVING RESILIENCE AGAINST EXTREME AND RARE
EVENTS IN COASTAL REGIONS: AN INITIAL METHODOLOGICAL PROPOSAL
THE CASE STUDYOFTHE CITY OF RETHYMNO
V.K. Tsoukala, C. Makropoulos, A. Lykou, M. Chodros, N. Manojlovic and Z. Vojinovic4
PEARL will address the threats posed in terms of flood prediction and control, by taking into account
governance and socio‐economic issues
The project aims to develop:novel technologies and methods for an holistic and cost effective risk reduction frameworkevent predictionforecast and warning systemsstructural and non‐structural strategies and active stakeholder participation of real case studies
Introduction
Objectives of the researchDesign and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimize social and economic losses and environmental impacts and increase resilience to extreme hydro‐meteorological events in coastal regions in Europe
Improve forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities
Develop robust prevention, mitigation and preparedness strategies
Build a pan‐European knowledge base that gathers real case studies and demonstrations of best practice across the EU
Integration of different components withinthe PEARL risk governance approach
WP1 Understanding of formation of vulnerabilities and risk in coastal regions. WP2 Analyzing and Developing of Extreme eventsWP3 Developing methods for assessment of impacts and vulnerabilities due to
individual and coinciding hazardous events. WP4 Advancements of early warning systems, methodologies and tools. WP5 Identify resilient strategies (i.e., protection, short‐ and‐long term
adaptation and mitigation strategies) Decision support for policy development and work on science‐policy interfacing with an emphasis on risk governance.
WP6 Case Studies. WP7 DisseminationWP8 Project management and coordination
Work Plan
Work Plan
Overview of work packages and
their interactions
Rethymno
Population: 32.468Density : 140,12 pop./km2
RethymnoCase Study (1)
Artificial SurfacesAgricultural areas
&Forest and semi natural surfaces
Corine land cover 2000
OpenStreetMap
(2)
geodata.gov.gr.
166 km2
Archontakis, 2013
Arrangement and diversion of the main streams in the urban area
Main stream basins
1st order river basins
Engineering measures were selected for the mitigation of flood hazard:
• Arrangement and diversion of streams and torrents
• Construction of circular stormwater drainage collectors
• Construction of internal-primary drainage network
• Construction of flood control dams
Mitigation measures
Archontakis, 2013
Historic Floods (1969‐ 1991)
Archontakis, 2013
Recent Floods (2010‐ 2013)
Methodology
Amodel chain will be set foratmosphericstorm surgefloodplainwavesriver and pipe networks
In order to understand the formation of hazards and model extreme events individually and in coincidence from the ocean till the origins of Rethymno’sriver basins
Global simulationwill be held for the analysis of climate change and sea level rise.
• The global ocean model MPIOM will be used with enhanced resolution around Europe, to model the tidal potential.
• REMOwill be interactively coupled to MPIOM over the northeast Atlantic and Europe to get a high resolution atmospheric forcing.
• A1B SRES emission scenario will be used for the time period until the end of the 21st century to incorporate the climate change
• Estimation of Wave Characteristics will be done using a 4‐level downscaling simulation
Methodology
14
Level I
Area of computational grid Med basin
Boundaries Longitude range [‐7°, 36°] Latitude range [30.25°, 45.75°]
Spatial analysis 0.1° x 0.1°
Temporal data analysis (time step) 3 hr (03:00, 06:00etc)
Parameter Sea level change due meteorological tide
Sea level change & Simulation of storm surge
15
Level IArea of computational grid Greek seas
Boundaries Longitude range [ 19.4°, 30°]Latitude range [30°, 43°]
Spatial analysis 0.05° x 0.05°
Temporal data analysis (time step) 6 hr (06:00, 12:00etc)
Parameter Sea level change due meteorological tide
Level II
Boundaries will be set on the Greek sees
Sea level change & Simulation of storm surge
Simulation of wave heightThe wave prediction system for the Greek Seas will be based on
SWAN wave model and will utilise the wind field data(wind velocity and direction at 10m over the sea level)
available through the data base provided by the climatic model.
Climatic simulations and predictions will be produced for the periods1961‐20002000‐2100
Level III
Level-I (0.2ox0.2o) ~20km Level-II (0.05ox0.05o) ~5km
Level‐III (100‐300m), local near shore areas
Bathymetry uses the GEBCO dataset (30” grid)
• High quality at the areas of interest
• Recently updated• Well documented• Operationally used
18
Xbeachwill capture :wave propagation, long waves and mean flow, sediment transport morphological changes
Local coastal area wave conditions:
SWAN XBeach SOBEK
Level IVSWAN will be coupled with XBeach, a model developed for eXtreme beach beahavior
The SOBEK modeling suite is expected to complete the model chainSOBEK simulates combinations of flow in
closed conduits open channelsrivers overland flows
Xbeachwill capture :wave propagation long waves and mean flow sediment transport morphological changes
The XBeachmodel will be applied to Rethymno’s coastal area extending several kilometers in the longshoreand about a kilometer in the cross‐shore
The XBeachmodel will be applied to Rethymno’s coastal area extending several kilometers in the longshoreand about a kilometer in the cross‐shore
Holistic and Multiple Risk Assessment based on socio‐economic issues will be carried out
Agent Based Models (ABM) will be developed to simulate the impact of the decision making processes of local stakeholders such us:
Municipality, Municipal Water Supply and Sewerage Company,Municipal Port Authority and the Civil Protection Authority of Rethymno
on the evolution of flood risk
ABMwill be tested for both strategic and operational risk assessment purposes.
The risk assessment will be made in Rethymno for the given scenarios through the combined use of ABM and work with stakeholders.
Implementation and validation of ABM
Linking ABM to local weather forecasts will be explored in order to set up an early warning system for combined risk forecasting
A toolbox supporting selection of resilient strategies will be developed that will include :
advanced multi‐criteria decision analysis methods robust and efficient multi‐objective optimization algorithms that can select and evaluate strategies and measures
NEXT STEPS ‐1
A platformwill be developed for decision support and policy development for strengthening resilience in coastal regions and tested
Stakeholders will interact with the key processestools methodsframework
NEXT STEPS ‐2
• An overview of the objectives and broad methodology of an EU funded project addressing issues of extreme and rare events in coastal region were presented.
• The specific application of the proposed methodology in Rethymnocoastal region in Crete was also analyzed.
• The overall result of the work is expected to be the development of an actionable roadmap for flood risk management for Rethymno
Conclusion
Such a roadmap and supporting tools, methods and frameworks:
can assist stakeholders to enhance flood resilience in coastal areas across Europe providing a robust framework for integrating lessons and ideas from the global effort to
DECREASEVULNERABILITIES IN COASTAL ZONES.
Conclusion