Improving Lives. Improvirrg Texas. Developing This Year's ... · 8:45 a.m. – 9:15 a.m. Marketing Plan Overview – Steve Amosson ... Milo Others: Payments: Land Leases Machinery

AgriLIFE EXTENSION Texas AampM System

Improving Lives Improvirrg Texas

Developing This Years Marketing Plan-Feed grains

Prosolttod Gy

Dr StOilO AHtossolt

ROfJoltts 10H]olN

Prssor altd 8xtoltslolt 8eoltoHtIst

Altd Dr Mar4 WoeeA

Assistaltt Prssor

Developing This Yearrsquos Marketing Plan ndash Feedgrains January 19 ndash 20 2010

Agenda

Tuesday January 19 2010

830 am ndash 845 am Introduction and Pre-test ndash Steve Amosson

845 am ndash 915 am Marketing Plan Overview ndash Steve Amosson

915 am ndash 955 am GoalsProduction Schedule Breakeven Prices ndash Steve Amosson

955 am ndash 1015 am Break

1015 am ndash 1130 am Feedgrain Fundamentals ndash Mark Welch

1130 am ndash 1215 pm Weather Trends and Forecast ndash Steve Drillette NWS

1215 pm ndash 100 pm Lunch

100 pm ndash 155 pm The Ethanol Industry ndash Steve Amosson

155 pm ndash 215 pm Break

215 pm ndash 330 pm Feedgrains Panel - TBA

330 pm Adjourn

Wednesday January 20 2010

830 am ndash 900 am Review and Updating the Marketing Plan - Steve

900 am ndash 930 am Corn and Sorghum Basis Information ndash Mark Welch

930 am ndash 1000 am Contract Seasonality ndash Steve Amosson


1020 am ndash 1050 am Technical Analysis ndash Mark Welch

1050 am ndash 1200 pm Marketing Tools and Strategies ndash Mark Welch


1245 pm ndash 155 pm Advanced Marketing Tools and Strategies ndash Mark amp Steve


200 pm ndash 300 pm Simulation Exercise ndash Mark Welch

300 pm ndash 330 pm Finalizing the Marketing Plan Wrap-up and Post-test ndash Steve

330 pm Adjourn

~EXTENSION TeJoas AampM System

ImproviNg Lhtflmproving lU4U

2010

Developing This Years Marketing

Plan-Feedgrains

~ ltgt shy

~

No 2 J

No3 1

~

~

No6

1010 7

1010 8

CO N TE N T 5

I Marketing Plan amp Breakeven Prices

I -Feedgrain

II Fundamentals

II The Ethanol Industry

I Corn and Sorghum Basis Information

I Contract Seasonality

Technical Analysis

Marketing Tools and Strategies

Marketing Simulation Exercise

SAVERYmiddot E X ECU TI VE READY I NDEX DI V ID ERS

Jane Planchon
Text Box
Jane Planchon
Text Box
Jane Planchon
Text Box
Jane Planchon
Text Box

1

Marketing Plan amp

Break Even Prices

Developing and Implementing a S f l M k i PlSuccessful Marketing Plan

Presented By

Dr Steve AmossonDr Steve AmossonRegents Fellow

Professor and Extension Economist

Developing and Implementing the Farm Marketing PlanFarm Marketing PlanThe Ten Steps to Success

Identify short and long term goalsy g gEstablish production estimatesCalculate breakeven and profit price goalsAssess cash-flow needs and Quantify price risk

you are willing to assume Identify who is responsible for decision makingIdentify who is responsible for decision makingKnow the market and market outlook Identify the marketing tools to be used Invest time and money to do it rightRevise and Review marketing plan as conditions

warrantwarrantMaintain Discipline

Production Estimates

Grain ndash Total bushels Grain Total bushels 5 year Average YieldsOn Farm Storageg Production Availability

Livestock ndash Animals to MarketDates (months) and weights to MarketRetained marketing alternatives

Know Your Production Costs

PER ACRE TOTALSeed $ 9000 $ 1350000 Enterprise

F tili $ 77 00 $ 141 000 00Fertilizer $ 7700 $ 14100000 breakeven

Chemicals $ 6700 $ 13050000 for 1500 acres of

Harvest and Haul $ 5500 $ 13200000 corn would be

Irrigation Fuel $ 183 00 $ 202 000 00Irrigation Fuel $ 18300 $ 20200000Allocated direct costs $ 13100 $ 16000000

(Fuels repairs interest)

Allocated overhead $ 1000 $ 5250000

If your yield is 225 bushels per acre your breakeven costs are $3 32 per bushel

(Services accounting insurance utilities)

Land $ 9000 $ 16500000TOTAL $ 66400 $ 111900000

From Your Production RecordsLow Corn Yield 200 Bushels Per Acre

If your yield is 225 bushels per acre your breakeven costs are $332 per bushel

Average Corn Yield 225 Bushels per Acre

High Corn Yield 250 Bushels Per Acre

Knowing All Your Costs

Total estimated production cost $ 111900000Plus

F il li i $ 65 000 00Family living expenses $ 6500000Plus

Annual debt service $ 5000000Minus

AMTA (f ) t $ 45 000 00AMTA (farm program) payments $ 4500000Total Cash Expenditures $ 118900000

PlusDepreciation (beyond payments) $ 6000000

$Total cashnon-cash expenses $ 124900000Plus

Profit andor growth capital $ 10000000Salesgross income objective $ 134900000

How do you determine your Growth Capital Goal

ROI ndash Return on Investment

ROE ndash Return on Equity

ROA ndash Return on Assets

Price Goals

Set GoalsCosts of production FamilyLiving expenses Profit margin desired Profit margin desired Projected growth of operation

Write Them DownStudy ThemShare them with

spousepartnerbanker

Calculating Breakeven Prices

Low Production

Average Production

High ProductionProduction Production Production

BushelsA 200 225 250Total Bushels 300000 337500 375000

Cash Expenses 1174375 1189000 1203625BEP - CE $391 $352 $321

Total Expenses 1234375 1249000 1263625BEP - TE $411 $370 $337

Total Expenses + ProfitGrowth 1334375 1349000 1363625

BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364

Determine the amount of risk yoursquore willing to takey g

Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income

C h fl d bli tiCash flow needsobligations

On farm storageOn farm storage

Projected Marketing ScheduleCommodity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec CO

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook

Political SituationFundamental SituationSupplyDemandDemand

Marketing Psychology

SeasonalityCycles

Technical SituationTechnical Situation

Fundamentals2007 Feedgrains EWAG Analysisg y

Low Average HighPlanted Acres (mil AC) 870 870 870Harvested Acres Planted Acres () 88 00 90 45 90 50Harvested Acres Planted Acres () 8800 9045 9050Harvested Acres (mil AC) 7656 7869 7874Yield (BUAC) 1406 1520 1672Production (mil BU) 10764 11961 13164Imports (mil BU) 10 10 10Carry In (mil BU) 935 935 935Total Supply (mil BU) 11709 12906 14109USEUSEFeed (mil BU) 5600 5900 6100Food Seed and Industrial (mil BU) 4250 4500 4750Export (mil BU) 1600 2000 2250Total Use (mil BU) 11450 12400 13100Carry Out (mil BU) 259 506 1009COUSE () 23 41 77P i ($BU) $6 60 $4 20 $2 80Price ($BU) $660 $420 $280

Notes

Pricing Alternatives

Cash Market at Harvest Speculative Storage Forward Contract Hedge to Arrive Contract Basis Contract Minimum Price Contract Hedging in Futures Marketsg g

Pre-harvest hedge Post-harvest storage hedge

Options Marketsp Pre-harvest hedge Post-harvest storage hedge

Farm Program Farm Program CooperativesGroups

Advantages amp Disadvantagesof Marketing Tools

Limited to 1000 Cash Leave Upside Margin

RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential

OpportunityCash Tools

Cash Sale N N N N N Y N2Cash Sale N N N N N Y N2

Non-Cash Tools N N N N N Y N

Basis Contract N N Y N N Y Y

Hedge-to-Arrive N1 Y N N Y Y N2g

Min Price Contract N N N N Y Y Y

Non-Cash Tools

Futures Hedge Y Y Y Y Y N N2

Buy Put N Y N Y Y N Y

Buy Call N Y N Y Y N Y

Fence Y Y Y Y Y N LY N N L Li it dY = yes N = No L = Limited

1 Depends on contract agreements2 Upside Potential limited to improvement in basis

STRATEGIES

Use More Flexible Tools Use More Flexible Tools Early sales Upper one-third of productionpp p

Allocation Sales Over Time Increase of sales as price increases Decrease of sales as price declines Consider multi-year sales in historically high

iprices

Look For Pricing OpportunitiesGrain Grain

Basis

Feedgrains Marketing Plan for 2010P re -P la n t P la n t in g to H a rv e s t (H a rv e s t P o s t H a rv e s t )

R e p o rt s to W a tc h

M a rk e ta b le P ro d u c t io n

C o n t ra c t S e a so n a lit y

P r ic e T im e T a rg e ts

M a rk e t in g T o o ls to b e U se d

M a rk e t in g S t ra te g ie s

W h a t D id I D o a n d W h y

g g

Closing CommentsgldquoAmossonrsquos Words of Wisdomrdquo

Know the difference between hedging and speculating ---- Hedging you win Hedging you win Speculating you lose

F d t l t l th l i Fundamentals control the long run price ---- Technicals control the short run price Seasonals reflect normal market psychology and need to p y gy

be factored into marketing decisions

Marketing is not a point in time but a continuous Marketing is not a point in time but a continuous activity

Breakeven Prices

Presented ByDr Steve AmossonDr Steve Amosson

Regents FellowProfessor and Extension

Economist

B k P iBreakeven Prices

Q i i V i bl C t (VC) All t f k t Quaisi Variable Cost (VC) ndash All out-of-pocket expenses associated with or assigned to the crop This includes seed fertilizer paid labor family living with-drawals land

t i t t t t tpayments equipment payments government payments etc Per Acre VC Breakeven Price = VCYield Total Cost (TC) Includes VC plus all non-cash expenses Total Cost (TC) Includes VC plus all non cash expenses

such as depreciation Per Acre TC Breakeven Price = TCYield Profit Total Cost plus a profit objective usually determined

by the goals that have been set or an independent financial measure such as return on assets

Per Acre Profit Breakeven Price = TC + Desired ProfitYield

All ti C tAllocating Costs

By Crop Acre By Crop Acre

By Capital Investment

By Time Investment

By Use

E ti ti C tEstimating CostsA l l o c a t e d

CB y C r o p

t o C r o p p e r A c r eT o t a l O u t - o f - P o c k e t P r o d u c t i o n C o s t s

O v e r h e a d C a s h E x p e n s e s P l u s

( u t i l i t i e s e t c )

F a m i l y L i v i n g E x p e n s e s

A n n u a l D e b t S e r v i c e ( l a n d

P l u s

P l u s(

e q u i p m e n t e t c

D i r e c t F a r m P r o g r a m P a y m e n t

M i n u s

T o t a l C a s h E x p e n s e s ( V C )

D e p r e c i a t i o n ( B e y o n d P y m t s )T o t a l C a s h N o n - C a s h E x p e n s e s ( e t c )

P l u s

E x p e n s e s ( e t c )

P r o f i t a n d o r G r o w t h C a p i t a lS a l e s G r o s s I n c o m e O b j e c t i v e

P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC

Variable+Fixed Cost (VC+FC)

VC+FC+Profit (TC)VC+FC+Profit (TC)

BEP‐TC

Closing Comments (continued)g

Use only the marketing tools you are comfortable with ---- Know them inside out

Futures price and basis are separate items ----Know both and market both

Marketing is like playing baseball sometimes you get a hit and sometimes you donrsquot -- Itrsquos the relative percentage thatrsquos importantp g p

The key to being a good marketer is have a solid marketing plan and the discipline to execute it

2010 Marketing Plan SummaryF u n d a m e n t a l s N o t e s S h o r t C r o p P r ic e = A v e r a g e C r o p P r ic e = L a r g e C r o p P r i c e =

B a s i s N o t e s S t r o n g B a s is A v e r a g e B a s is W e a k B a s is

C a s h M a r k e t A l t e r n a t i v e s N o t e s 11 2 3

W h a t I n e e d t o l e a r n H o w a n d w h e n a m I g o i n g t o d o i t 1 22 3

G o a l s S h o r t - T e r m G o a l s L o n g - T e r m1 1 2 2 3 33 3

L o w Y i e l d H i g h Y i e l dV a r ia b le C o s t ( V C )

V C + F ix e d C o s t ( F C )

A v e r a g e Y i e l dB r e a k e v e n s


V C + F C + P r o f i t

Pre‐Plant Planting to Harvest (HarvestPost Harvest)

Reports to Watch

Marketable Production

Contract Season

PriceTime Targets

Marketing Tools to be Used

Marketing Strategies

What Did I Do and Why

Feedgrains Marketing Plan for 2010

Pre‐Plant Planting to Harvest HarvestPost Harvest

Reports to Watch

Planting Intentions (PI) Report (March 31) PI Industry Reports starting early March Soil Moisture Conditions httpwwwusdagovnasspubsstaterpthtm ‐ NASS Crop Weather WASDE and other USDA reports Ethanol Industry Reports EIAISU

Crop conditionsprogress reports from NASS Crop Weather and httpwwwextensioniastateeduinformationweatherhtml ‐ Elwynn Taylor (Iowa State) WASDE and other USDA reports especially August Crop Report Ethanol Industry Reports EIAISU

WASDE and other USDA reports

Marketable Production 7525 ‐ 75 depending on pre‐plant sales with total pre‐harvest sales not to exceed 100

Remainder of unsold production

Contract Seasonality

First Seasonality price opportunity is normally early to the middle of March Followed by the first half of April Next opportunity earlymid June If normal crop prices tend to fall into harvest

Next Seasonal sale indicator is early to mid JuneSeasonal low is usually hit in September or early October

PriceTime Targets

Split the range ie start marketing at $440 (double first sale) incrementally market to $475 until 75 of crop is marketed Can fine tune selling with technical indicators (moving ave etc)

Continue scale up sales if market is trending up Sell at least 50 by mid June time frame on down trends and remainder of pre harvest sales on downtrend in July to August

Sell remainder at harvest across the scales unless you have tax concerns but to evaluate storage costs carefully before holding grain


Forward contract at least first half if not all of pre plant sales If you decide to use options consider collar window or FC ‐ Bull call spread to limit cost Consider basis contracts on un‐priced production up to 75 of total because of inc supplies

Options due to market volatility and likelihood of major up and down trends developing If forward cash sales hedges or options depending on your risk tolerance If you are pricing the last 25 of production definitely use optionsoption strategies such as a collar window or bear put spread

Cash Sales Call options strategies such as bull call spread can be used to re‐own grain if desired


Use scale up sales based on seasonal price tendencies with moving averages and other trend indicators as marketing triggers I want to be at least 25 sold pre‐plant if at profitable levels Lock in 50 of NG (up to August) and all fertilizer ‐ NOW

Continue scale up sales based on seasonal tendencies and price trend indicators as sales triggers Need to be at least 50 marketed by the middle of June with a goal of being 100 if the weather appears normal and at profitable levels before harvest

If prices appear likely to move higher after harvest sell grain and buy calls

What Did I Do amp Why

Feedgrains Marketing Plan for 20102011Preseason Price Forecast = $405Contract Price Range $360‐$475

Collar or Three‐Way

Action Buy a put at the money sell out‐upsell out up

The money put and callExample 2010 Dec CornExample 2010 Dec Corn

Buy 400 put 43 38Sell 350 put 20 frac34Sell 500 call 20 frac12

Out‐of‐Pocket Cost

4 00 Put(B) 43 38400 Put(B) 43 38350 Put(S) ‐20 frac34500 Call(S) ‐20 frac12Commission +2 Net Cost 4 18

Assume an 0 Basis

Collar or Three‐Way (Continued)(Continued)

AdvantagesLimited up front requiredCan negate the time value of optionsProvides limited downside price protection

DisadvantagesCaps upside price potentialLimits downside price protectionPossible margin calls if price rises

When to useUncertain productionOptions premiums are highA good idea of potential price rangeA good idea of potential price rangeMarket is a profitable level or downside risk

ProblemsLimited volume in options marketLimited volume in options market


1 What is the first price you are protected at on the downside

2 2 If the price falls lower than the put that you sold what is the maximum you could collect

3 3 What is the maximum price you can receive

4 4 If the Dec price ends up between $350 ‐$500 buthen what is your expected price range you will receive

Projections for Planning Purposes OnlyNot to be Used without Updating after December 15 2009

B-1241 (C1)

Table 4A Estimated costs and returns per Acre Bt Corn for Grain Sprinkler Irrigated (NG) 2010 Projected Costs and Returns per Acre_______________________________________________________________________ITEM UNIT PRICE QUANTITY AMOUNT YOUR FARM_______________________________________________________________________ dollars dollarsINCOME corn bu 430 2250000 96750 _________ --------TOTAL INCOME 96750 _________

DIRECT EXPENSES SEED seed - Bt corngr bags 25500 03500 8925 _________ INSECTICIDE miticide acre 2000 10000 2000 _________ HERBICIDE herb - corn pre acre 1960 10000 1960 _________ herb -corn post acre 2780 10000 2780 _________ FERTILIZER fert(N) - ANH3 lb 022 1260000 2772 _________ fert(P) - liquid lb 051 600000 3060 _________ fert(N) - liquid lb 032 780000 2496 _________ CUSTOM fert appl - ANH3 acre 1100 10000 1100 _________ crop consultant acre 725 10000 725 _________ harv amp haul - corn bu 039 2250000 8775 _________ CROP INSURANCE corn - irrigated acre 1930 10000 1930 _________ OPERATOR LABOR Implements hour 1080 02925 315 _________ Tractors hour 1080 03965 428 _________ HAND LABOR Implements hour 1080 01527 164 _________ IRRIGATION LABOR Center Pivot hour 1080 14080 1520 _________ DIESEL FUEL Tractors gal 205 21861 448 _________ GASOLINE Self-Propelled Eq gal 236 20100 474 _________ NATURAL GAS Center Pivot ac-in 675 220000 14850 _________ REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE Implements Acre 561 10000 561 _________ Tractors Acre 480 10000 480 _________ Self-Propelled Eq Acre 016 10000 016 _________ Center Pivot ac-in 203 220000 4466 _________ INTEREST ON OP CAP Acre 1088 10000 1088 _________ --------TOTAL DIRECT EXPENSES 61337 _________RETURNS ABOVE DIRECT EXPENSES 35412 _________

FIXED EXPENSES Implements Acre 873 10000 873 _________ Tractors Acre 689 10000 689 _________ Self-Propelled Eq Acre 024 10000 024 _________ Center Pivot Acre 3360 10000 3360 _________ --------TOTAL FIXED EXPENSES 4948 _________ --------TOTAL SPECIFIED EXPENSES 66286 _________RETURNS ABOVE TOTAL SPECIFIED EXPENSES 30463 _________

ALLOCATED COST ITEMS cash rent - corn acre 11000 10000 11000 _________RESIDUAL RETURNS 19463 ________________________________________________________________________________Projections for Planning Purposes Only1 ac-in = 1 Mcf

Information presented is prepared solely as a general guide amp not intended to recognize or predict the costs amp returns from any one operation Developed by Texas AgriLife Extension Service

215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals

Grain Market FundamentalsSupply and Demand Analysis

Mark WelchmdashGrain Marketing EconomistJanuary 19 2010

Improving Lives Improving Texas

bull ldquoWithout the runaway demandrunaway demand growth of ethanol many of the recent stories need to be rewritten in shortrewritten in short orderrdquo

bull

Michael Swanson

Pumping ethanol from corn in 1933

--Michael Swanson Economics Department Wells Fargo

httpwwwnassusdagovPublicationsindexasp

httpwwwersusdagovBriefing

httpwwwfasusdagovpsdonlinepsdHomeaspx

httpwwwfaprimissourieduindexaspcurrent_page=home

httpwww cpc ncep noaa govproductsanalysis monitoringregional monitoringindex shtmlhttpwwwcpcncepnoaagovproductsanalysis_monitoringregional_monitoringindexshtml

httpwwwdroughtnoaagovindexhtml

The 10 Commandments

Of Successful Commodity TradingOf Successful Commodity Trading

IV Thou shalt not let thy emotions rule

Separate what you think from what you want

Fundamental AnalysisFundamental Analysis

bull The use of information regarding the factors of supply and demand for a given commodity to formulate a price estimate

Price Estimation using Demand d S land Supply

SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q

Wh d thi tt Why does this matter

bull Price changes due to changes in demand are usually sustained for longer periods of time

bull Price changes due to changes in supply are usually short livedsupply are usually short lived

Schematic Representation of the US Grain Marketp

B S k E di St k

Factors of Supply = Factors of Demand

Grain

Beg Stocks Ending Stocks

GrainPrice

Imports Exports

Production Domestic Use

Area

Yield

Returns from Competing

Crops

Corn US SupplyDemand (million bushels)pp y ( )

200506 200607 200708 200809 200910SupplyBeginning Stks 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673Beginning StksProduction

211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151

Total Supply 13237 12510 14362 13739 14834DisappearanceDisappearanceDomestic UseExports

91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070

Ending StksCarryoverUse ()

19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370

US Corn UseUS Corn Use

7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial

Source USDA revised 11210

US Corn Supply and DemandMil bu

11210

Stock to Use RatioStock to Use Ratio

bull The stock to use ratio is a convenient measure of supply and demand interrelationships of commodities

bull The stocks to use ratio indicates the level of carryover stock for a given commodity as a percentage of the total demand or use

Stocks to Use RatioStocks to Use Ratio

M th ti l f l f thi l ti hiMathematical formula for this relationship

Ending Stocks = Beg Stocks + Production +Ending Stocks = Beg Stocks + Production + Imports ndash Domestic Use ndash Exports

Total Use = Domestic Use + Exports

St k t U E di St k T t l UStocks to Use = Ending Stocks divide Total Use

Multiply by 100 to express as a percentageMultiply by 100 to express as a percentage

Season Average Corn Price vs US Ending Stocks-to-Useg196980 ndash 200910

45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090

10US Ending Stks-to-Use

121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

SAFP to 5-yr avg Stocks to U R tiUse Ratio

500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08

U S Corn Crop ConditionUS Corn Crop Condition

1507 1539 1604

China Net Trade000 MT

10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000

Coarse Grain Wheat Soybeans Rice

Source USDA and FAPRI

US Corn Supply and Demand 11210mil bu

US Corn Stocks All Positions000 bu

NASS report date 11210

World Per Capita Grain UseWorld Per Capita Grain Usekg

corn barley sorghum rye oats millet mixed grains wheat rice121009

World Per Capita ConsumptionKg

Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009

World Corn Days of Use on Hand

11210

Food versus FuelFood versus Fuel

2007 US Biofuel Mandates Billi llBillion gallons

Source FAPRI and RFA

Break even price of Corn for Eth lEthanol

Y=3x-162

Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain Oilseed and Livestock Sectors A Preliminary Assessment TheAmani Elobeid Simla Tokgoz Dermot J Hayes Bruce A Babcock Chad E Hart[06-BP 49]

Ethanol Returns

Cattle CrushCattle Crush$head

Global Economic GrowthGlobal economic growth is being driven by developing nations

810

e

Real GDP Growth 1980 - 2010

246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

-6Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies

World Change in Crude OilWorld Change in Crude Oil

Source httpwwwimforgexternaldatamapperindexphp

World Liquid Fuel ConsumptionMillion barrels per day

Energy Information Administration Short-term Energy Outlook December 2009

US Stocks of Crude Oil and P t l P d tPetroleum Products

Weekly Petroleum Status Report Energy Information Administration December 25 2009

Crude Oil and Natural Gas N b F t P iNearby Futures Prices

Outside MarketsDollar Crude OilDollar Crude Oil

C Eth lCopper Ethanol

Wheat Corn and Soybeans Speculative Investment

Net long contracts centbu

Source CFTC released 11210

Corn Speculative Investment

Net Long Contracts centbu

Anhydrous Ammonia Prices$t$ton

April Prices USDA

Bushels of Corn to buy 1 ton of A h d A iAnhydrous Ammonia

Soybean Harvested AcresSoybean Harvested Acresmillion acres

Yield per acre is very similar asymp 42 bushels

2010 SoybeanCorn Price Ratio(weekly average closing prices)(weekly average closing prices)

0809 0910 1011Planted Acreage (Mil Acs) 860 865 900Harvested Acreage (Mil Acs)Yield (Bushels)

7861539

7961652

8161575

Supply - - - Million Bushels - - -

US CornBeginning StocksProductionImports

162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD

pTotal Supply 13729 14834 14619Disappearance

Feed and Residual 5 246 5 550 5 600

January 12 2010

Feed and ResidualFood Seed amp IndustrialExports

524649531858

555054702050

560057252100

T t l U 12 056 13 070 13 425Total Use 12056 13070 13425Ending Stocks 1673 1764 1194CarryoverUse () 139 135 89Average Farm Price ($Bu) 406 370 444Closing Price Dec Futures 360 392 444

Marketing PhilosophiesMarketing Philosophies

R d Aibull Ready Aim Aim Aim Aim Aim helliphelliphellip

bull Ready Fire AimAim

The man who insists on seeing with gperfect clearness before he decides never decidesHenri-Freacutedeacuteric Amiel

3

The Ethanol Industry

The Future of the Ethanol Industry

Presented Byy

Dr Steve AmossonRegents FellowgProfessor and Extension Economist

Presentation OutlinePresentation OutlineHow We Got Where We AreHow We Got Where We AreCurrent Status of EthanolC t d R t f Eth lCost and Returns of EthanolEthanol in the High PlainsCellulosic Ethanol Time LineSummary and Conclusionsy

Complex Economic Relationships

Bioenergy Success or Failure Depends


Bioenergy Success or Failure Depends on

Oil indash Oil pricesndash Processing coststechnology

R l ti f d t k tndash Relative feedstock costsndash Demand for the biofuelsndash Technology improvementsndash Government Policy

Ethanolt a ol

E85ndash Motor fuel blend of 85

ethanol and 15 gasoline

E10ndash Motor fuel blend of 10 ethanol and

90 gasoline

Currently primarily comes from corn y p y but any grain crop will work

Largely due to Government policies ethanol production grew from about 62 million gallons in 1976grew from about 62 million gallons in 1976

to over 2 billion gallons in 2002Surface Transportation

2500

Million gallons

Energy Tax Actof 1978 gaveethanol a $040gal

Assistance Act of 1983 increased ethanol tax exemption to $050gal and the blenderrsquos income tax credit to $050gal

MTBE discovered inCalifornia drinking waterin 1998

1500

2000g

credit on the Federalmotor fuels tax Regulations under the

Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990started in 1992Blenderrsquos

Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000

Tax Reform Act of 1984increased ethanol taxexemption to $060gal and the blenderrsquos income tax credit to

In 1999 CaliforniaGovernor banned MTBEby 1203

credit of$040gal

Energy policy Act of 1992 applied ethanoltax credits to lower blends

0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

blender s income tax credit to $060gal

tax credits to lower blends

Source US Energy Information Administration and USDA ERS

EthanolBasic Facts

Currently one bushel of corn produces 28 gallons of ethanol overall 275g By Productsndash 17 75 lbs of distillers dried grainndash 1775 lbs of distillers dried grainndash CO2

Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu

E h l P d iEthanol ProductionndashJanuary 2009 Est

Status Plants Capacityp y(Billions of Gallons)

Operating 193 1274

Under Construction 20 204

213 1478

US Average Regular Gas and Ethanol Prices Monthly 1991 ndash 2006

35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

Source Renewable Fuels Association

Ethanol PricesRelative to Unleaded Gas

Time Price Relationship

lsquo82 ndash lsquo05 Premium Basis

2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10

Oct rsquo07 $ 45Oct 07 -$45

Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54

US Ethanol Situation-Spring lsquo09 2nd L t fi i b k t2nd Largest firm in bankruptcy5-8 more in bankruptcy24 28 f l ti l t idl d24-28 formerly operating plants idled Several completed or nearly complete plants delay opening

Returns near break-evenSevere loss in asset valuesGovt Mandates support corn processing demand near current level -- ldquoblending wallrdquo issueIdle operating capacity 135-150 mil tons cornIdle plants =14-18 of capacity

Ethanol Plant Operating MarginsOperating Margins

Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit

I donrsquot particularly see anyone outside the ethanol industry trying to get into the industry now That would be like running into a burning barnmdashSander Cohen industry analyst

Bellwether MarketBellwether MarketCorn $bu

Crude $bbl

Statistician A man who believes figures dont lie but admits that under analysis some of them wont stand up either ndash Evan Esar

40109 updated 5609

July lsquo10 crude oil

July rsquo10 corn5609

y 40109

July rsquo10 crude 5609

$barrel

Spot Crude20909

July 2010 $6165 brings corn near

$480bu

Proposed amp Initiated Ethanol Plants and Their Grain Requirement

Ethanol Capacity Million

Corn Required Million Corn Acres

and Their Grain Requirement

Location Company Million galyr

Million bushels

Corn Acres Required

Levelland LevellandHockey 40 148 76365Muleshoe Panda Energy 100 37 0 190 913Muleshoe Panda Energy 100 370 190913Plainview White Energy 100 370 190913Hereford Panda Energy 100 370 190913H f d Whit E 100 37 0 190 913Hereford White Energy 100 370 190913Dumas Pan Ener of Dumas 30 111 57274Stratford Panda Energy 100 370 190913Total 570 2111 108820227 gallons of ethanol produced from a bushel of corn194 buacre base on TASS 2005

Energy BillEnergy BillSigned into law 121907Requires 36 billion gallons of ethanol use by 2022yMandates that 21 of the 36 billion gallons come from feedstocks othergallons come from feedstocks other than corn

Renewable Fuels Standard MandateRenewable Fuels Standard MandateEnacted under the Clean Air Act ndash Applies to bl dblendersEPA is the Enforcement AgencyStandard calculated for the year in November based on previous 12 months gas use

C l l d i l b indash Calculated on a national basisndash 111 billion gallons of ethanolndash 2009 ndash 1021 must be RF

The larger volume blenders would be impacted less

RFS Mandate PenaltiesRFS Mandate PenaltiesReturn ill begotten gainsReturn ill begotten gainsPlus $25000 fine per day or $9 125 000$9125000yrTechnically-If out of compliance for a y pday could be considered out of compliance for the year-EPArsquos discretionp y

2007 US Biofuel Mandates Billion gallonsf Billion gallons


Applicable volume of

Calendar Year

renewable fuel (in billions of gallons)

2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360

Source High Plains Journal 010708

Renewable Fuel StandardsEthanol-Corn Use

Year Renewable Fuel Billing of Gallons

Corn ReqBilling of Bushels

Net Even Req Billing of bushels

2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371

Assumes 28 galbushel and 1775 lbs of DGrsquos produced

Distillerrsquos GrainDistiller s Grain2009 2010

Corn for Eth l (b ) 3 964 000 4 62 000Ethanol (bu) 3964000 4625000Distillers Grain (bu) 1257000 1466000N t CNet Corn Use (bu) 2707000 3159000

P blProblem

BiBiggerggProblemProblem

ldquoI have established a goal to have 60 billion

gallons of our fuel comefrom sustainable

affordable biofuelsin 2022helliprdquo

Biofuels grow but fall short of the 36 billion gallon RFS target in 2022 exceed it in 2035

billion gallon-equivalents

45 R bl

35

40

45 Legislated RFS in 2022

RFS with Biomass-to-

liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25

30 adjustments under CAA Sec211(o)(7) Biodiesel

Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15

20 Other feedstocks Cellulosic

ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol

Richard Newell SAIS December 14 2009 29

2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035

Source Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Ethanol Blend AnnouncementEthanol Blend Announcement

The announcement was made onDec 1 which was the deadline forEPA to respond to a request fromp qethanol producers who want theblend limit raised from the currentblend limit raised from the current10 to 15

Blending Wall for EthanolBlending Wall for Ethanol

Federal standards set the maximum of ethanolFederal standards set the maximum of ethanol blending at 10 of the total gas supply - -Additional to E85Concerns over vehicle ability to use it mileage and transportation infrastructureCurrent annual fuel consumption in the US about 130 ndash 140 billion gallonsCurrently blending wall is estimated at 12 13Currently blending wall is estimated at 12 ndash 13 billion gallons of ethanol

Blending Wall ObservationsBlending Wall - Observations

B il h b i hi h bl d t (E20Brazil has been using higher blend rates (E20 ndashE30) without any problemsLong term need to modify production processesLong term - - need to modify production processes or product (butanol)Short term solution Raise blending limit to E12Short term solution - - Raise blending limit to E12 or E15 or E20Long term problem - - increased pressure onLong term problem increased pressure on ethanol prices due to added production (cellulosic)

SteversquosSteve s Crystal BallCrystal Ball

Whatrsquos coming in the

Wi dS l Stfuture

WindSolar StorageImproved Electric CarsImproved Electric CarsAlgae OilH-H-OTh A M bilThe Amosson Mobile

Summary and ConclusionsyShort Run

E d d h l d i iExpanded ethanol production is probably a given however the pace is expected to slow do to capacity and policyp yThe President Elect and Secretary of Ag are big supporters of Renewable Fuelsare big supporters of Renewable FuelsCurrent Ethanol Margins have turned

i ipositive

Summary and ConclusionsSummary and Conclusions

Ethanol Production is and will suffer fromEthanol Production is and will suffer from growing painsndash Demand amp SupplyDemand amp Supply

DDG prices will be falling (relatively) making them attractive for livestock rationsThe limit on corn based ethanol and the growth in yields will eventually cap corn prices in the LRBl di ll d ll l i d i illBlending wall and cellulosic production will become a problem in the future for corn based ethanolethanol

Educational programs of Texas AgriLife Extension Service are open to all people without regard to race color sexare open to all people without regard to race color sex

disability religion age or national origin

4

Corn amp Sorghum Basis

Information

BasisMarketing Plan Seminar



BasisBasis

bull The amount that the local cash price of a commodity is above or below the futures price for a pparticular month

bull Impacted by transportation costsImpacted by transportation costs storage and handling interest charges supply and demandcharges supply and demand fundamentals

(basis = cash - futures)(basis = cash - futures)

Corn Prices in the Triangle A F t C h B iArea Futures Cash Basis

600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures

Sorghum Prices North of the C di C F t C h B iCanadian Corn Futures Cash Basis600

400

500

200

300

000

100

-100

Basis Corn Futures Cash

Basis

bull Basis exists mainly because of carrying y y gcharge arbitrage between futures and cash markets and transportation costsndash The carrying charge exists because stored

commodities are harvested and stored one time each year There are financingtime each year There are financing storage and management cost associated with carrying charge

ndash Because of carrying charge it is likely that the deferred futures price will be higher than cash price or basis with a negative p gsign will exist during harvest

BasisBasis

bull Transportation costs also affect the local basis The grain handler receives a bid from buyer determines the transportation cost to deliver the grain and subtract that cost from the price bid to determine the local price paid to the farmer

BasisBasis

bull Basis may also serve as a barometer of market strength or weakness

bull Improving basis is a sign of underlying strength in market demand

bull Declining basis is a sign of weak demanddemand

BasisBasis

bull There are times when the formula generates a basis with a positive sign

bull This denotes that the cash price is higher than futures price or cash pricehigher than futures price or cash price is selling at a premium to the futures

bull This occurs because supplydemandThis occurs because supplydemand relationships in the local cash market is different from futures market The local

l f i i th k t bsupply of grain in the market may be limited relative to demand or demand may be relatively higher than supply inmay be relatively higher than supply in the local market

Basis

bull The observed basis is termed asThe observed basis is termed as strong when the present basis is more positive or less negativemore positive or less negative than the historic average basis

For example assume that thendash For example assume that the average basis for a hypothetical market is -$035 per bushel The $ ppresent basis is -$010

ndash Therefore present basis is strong p grelative to the historic average

Basis

bull Similarly the observed basis isSimilarly the observed basis is termed as weak when the present basis is less positive or morebasis is less positive or more negative than the historic averagendash For example assume that theFor example assume that the

average basis for a hypothetical market is -$035 per bushel The present basis is -$045

ndash Therefore present basis is weak relative to the historic average

BasisCash Price ndash Futures Price = Basisbull Is the relationship between a local cash market and theIs the relationship between a local cash market and the

futures market

bull Can be negative or positiveCan be negative or positive

bull Is more stable than cash or futures prices

Basis Componentsbull Storage (insurance and interest)

bull Transportation

bull Local supply and demand

The Role of Basis in Hedgingg gBasis describes the price relationship between cash market prices and futures market prices at a particular time and location Basis is the number of cents (dollars) per unit that the local cash price of a commodity is above or below the current priceper unit that the local cash price of a commodity is above or below the current price for a particular futures contract delivery month on a given day Thus basis is the cash market price minus the futures market price at a specific time

Basis is important yet often the least understood concept in hedging agricultural p y p g g gcommodities An understanding and an accurate estimate of basis is needed by farmers and rancher who want to include hedging as part of their pricing strategy

Basis is important because approximately 97 percent of all agricultural commodities traded in the futures market are offset before delivery Therefore because the actualtraded in the futures market are offset before delivery Therefore because the actual physical commodity is mostly sold on the cash market the hedged futures price will not be the realized price for the commodity An estimate of that price can be calculated using the basis

A knowledge of the local basis is necessary to translate a given futures price into probable effective price for local delivery The futures price plus the expected basis (with appropriate arithmetic sign) is an estimate of the price the futures market is offering for the commodity delivered to the local market during a particular month Remember the basis is cash minus futures Therefore when the basis is negative gthe futures price is reduced by the amount of the basis When the basis is positive the futures price is increased by the basis value

Market CarryNormal Market

Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212

Market CarryInverted Market

Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280

Basis and Expected PriceBasis and Expected Pricebull Knowledge of local basis is

t t l t inecessary to translate a given futures price into a probable price f l l d lifor local delivery

bull The futures price adjusted for basis is the price the market is offering for your grain delivered at a local elevator during a particular month(expected price = futures + basis)( p p )

Expected Price -$050 basisExpected Price $050 basis

5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures

Texas Corn Basis in Oct vs Dec Contract Hi h L A (2005 09)High Low Average (2005-09)

North of the

0 30

040

0 30

040Canadian Triangle Area South of Line

0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030

Source httpmastermarketertamuedu

Basis Tracking FormBasis Table

Commodity LocationNearby Futures Contract Harvest Delivery

CashFutures Contract

Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract

Harvest Contract Futures Implied

Basis Contract

Date Price Month Price Basis Offer Price Basis Offer

Basis Corn North of the C diCanadian

Basis Sorghum North of the C diCanadian

Basis Expected Harvest Basis

Expected Mar 1 Basis

Expected May 1 BasisExpected May 1 Basis

If short crop basis will

If large crop basis will

StrategiesStrategies

NOTES

Developing This Yearrsquos Marketing Plan ndash Feedgrains January 19 ndash 20 2010

Agenda

Tuesday January 19 2010

830 am ndash 845 am Introduction and Pre-test ndash Steve Amosson

845 am ndash 915 am Marketing Plan Overview ndash Steve Amosson

915 am ndash 955 am GoalsProduction Schedule Breakeven Prices ndash Steve Amosson


1015 am ndash 1130 am Feedgrain Fundamentals ndash Mark Welch

1130 am ndash 1215 pm Weather Trends and Forecast ndash Steve Drillette NWS


100 pm ndash 155 pm The Ethanol Industry ndash Steve Amosson


215 pm ndash 330 pm Feedgrains Panel - TBA

330 pm Adjourn

Wednesday January 20 2010

830 am ndash 900 am Review and Updating the Marketing Plan - Steve

900 am ndash 930 am Corn and Sorghum Basis Information ndash Mark Welch

930 am ndash 1000 am Contract Seasonality ndash Steve Amosson


1020 am ndash 1050 am Technical Analysis ndash Mark Welch

1050 am ndash 1200 pm Marketing Tools and Strategies ndash Mark Welch


1245 pm ndash 155 pm Advanced Marketing Tools and Strategies ndash Mark amp Steve


200 pm ndash 300 pm Simulation Exercise ndash Mark Welch

300 pm ndash 330 pm Finalizing the Marketing Plan Wrap-up and Post-test ndash Steve

330 pm Adjourn



2010


Plan-Feedgrains

~ ltgt shy

~

No 2 J

No3 1

~

~

No6

1010 7

1010 8

CO N TE N T 5


I -Feedgrain

II Fundamentals




Technical Analysis




Jane Planchon
Text Box
Jane Planchon
Text Box
Jane Planchon
Text Box
Jane Planchon
Text Box

1

Marketing Plan amp

Break Even Prices


Presented By




















Land $ 9000 $ 16500000TOTAL $ 66400 $ 111900000

















Price Goals



spousepartnerbanker


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



2010


Plan-Feedgrains

~ ltgt shy

~

No 2 J

No3 1

~

~

No6

1010 7

1010 8

CO N TE N T 5


I -Feedgrain

II Fundamentals




Technical Analysis




Jane Planchon
Text Box
Jane Planchon
Text Box
Jane Planchon
Text Box
Jane Planchon
Text Box

1

Marketing Plan amp

Break Even Prices


Presented By




















Land $ 9000 $ 16500000TOTAL $ 66400 $ 111900000

















Price Goals



spousepartnerbanker


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

1

Marketing Plan amp

Break Even Prices


Presented By




















Land $ 9000 $ 16500000TOTAL $ 66400 $ 111900000

















Price Goals



spousepartnerbanker


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Presented By




















Land $ 9000 $ 16500000TOTAL $ 66400 $ 111900000

















Price Goals



spousepartnerbanker


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


















Land $ 9000 $ 16500000TOTAL $ 66400 $ 111900000

















Price Goals



spousepartnerbanker


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES














Land $ 9000 $ 16500000TOTAL $ 66400 $ 111900000

















Price Goals



spousepartnerbanker


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES











Land $ 9000 $ 16500000TOTAL $ 66400 $ 111900000

















Price Goals



spousepartnerbanker


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES













Price Goals



spousepartnerbanker


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

Price Goals



spousepartnerbanker


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Low Production

Average Production






BEP TEP $4 45 $4 00 $3 64BEP - TEP $445 $400 $364


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Leverage

Debt structure

Age

Off-farm income




Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Milo

Others

Payments

LandLand

Leases

Machinery

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

Market Outlook



SeasonalityCycles




Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



Notes








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES








RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



RiskBasis Risk

Futures Risk

Easy EntryExit

or 5000 Bushels

Delivery Required

pPotential







Non-Cash Tools






STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

STRATEGIES



iprices


Basis









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES









g g






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES






Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

Breakeven Prices



Economist










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES










By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




By Time Investment

By Use


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


CB y C r o p






P l u s

P l u s(



M i n u s



P l u s



P l u s


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Yield Scenarios

Low Average High

YieldYield

Variable Cost

BEP‐VC

BEP‐VC+FC



BEP‐TC

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

















Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES












Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Reports to Watch


Contract Season

PriceTime Targets






Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Reports to Watch









PriceTime Targets




















Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES







Assume an 0 Basis












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES












B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES







B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


B-1241 (C1)






215

667

80075252500

13200

57749 + 100 CASH amp RENT67749 (VC)

72697 (TC)

10000

600

035 215

72697 8 = 5816______

TOTAL 78513

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

2

Feedgrain

Fundamentals





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


bull

Michael Swanson









The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES







The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES






The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

The 10 Commandments







SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES






SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


SupplyP Supply

New Supply

P

Old Price

New Price

DemandNew Demand

New Price

Q





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


B S k E di St k


Grain


GrainPrice

Imports Exports


Area

Yield


Crops



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



211411114

196710531

130413038

162412101

167313151


91362134

90812125

103002437

102071858

110202050

T l U 11 270 11 207 12 737 12 065 13 070Total Use 11270 11207 12737 12065 13070


19671745

13041164

16241275

16741387

17641350

11210

Avg Farm Price 200 304 420 406 370


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


7 000

Million bushels

5000 6000 7000

Feed and Residual

2 0003000 4000

Ethanol

0 1000 2000

7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Exports

Food Seed and Other

9697

9899

0001

0203

0405

0607

0809

Industrial



11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


11210











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES











45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES








45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


45 70

3 0

35

40

50

60Average Price

2 025

30

$B

u

30

40

Perc

ent

10

15

20

20

30 P

00

05

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090


121009

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


500 1011

$bu

3 50

400

45008090708

0910

y = 17132x-0221

Rsup2 = 02755250

300

350

100

150

200

Y = -00887X + 03579R2 = 0 629

000

050

0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8

R2 = 0629

0 02 04 06 08


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


1507 1539 1604


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


10000

20000

Exports

‐10000

0

‐30000

‐20000Imports

‐50000

‐40000

‐60000









Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES







Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES






Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Yr to Yr 10-yr

+18

-0-0

-0

+22

Updated 121009


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


11210





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Y=3x-162


Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

Ethanol Returns



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


810

e


246

nt C

hang

e

-4-20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Perc

en

















April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES














April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES












April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES










April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES









April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES







April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


April Prices USDA






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES






7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


7861539

7961652

8161575



162412092

14

167313151

10

176412855

10

SampD



January 12 2010


524649531858

555054702050

560057252100






3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

3



Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Presented Byy









Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES








Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES







Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

Ethanolt a ol




90 gasoline




2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



2500

Million gallons




1500

2000g



Income tax dit f

RFG beginsin 1995

500

1000



credit of$040gal


0

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002




EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

EthanolBasic Facts


Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

Figure 3

Total 11693 mil Bu



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



Operating 193 1274


213 1478


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


35

4

2

25

3

allo

n

Ethanol

1

15

2

$G

a

Reg Gas

0

05

991992

993994

995996

997998

999000

001002

003004

005006

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006





2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




2006 +$64

Aug lsquo07 +$10


Jan lsquo09 +$ 54Jan 09 +$54




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Natrsquol Gas

Profit

Corn

Profit



Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Crude $bbl


40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

40109 updated 5609



y 40109


$barrel

Spot Crude20909


$480bu






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES






Million bushels

Corn Acres Required










Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES









Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES








Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Calendar Year


2006 402007 4 72007 472008 902009 1112010 12952011 13952012 1522013 16552014 18 152014 18152015 2052016 22252017 2402018 2602019 2802020 3002021 33 02021 3302022 360






2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





2008 90 321 220

2009 111 396 271

2010 1295 463 316

2011 1395 498 340

2012 152 543 371




P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

P blProblem







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES







45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES






45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



45 R bl

35

40



liquids

Renewable diesel

20

25


Oth

q

Net ethanol imports

10

15


ethanol

0

5

2008 2022 2022 in 2035

Corn ethanol


2008 2022 2022 inAEO2009

2035










Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES









Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES







Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Wi dS l Stfuture




i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



i ipositive






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES






4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES



4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

4


Information




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

BasisBasis





600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


600

400

500

200

300

(1 00)

000

100

(100)

basis cash futures


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


400

500

200

300

000

100

-100


Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

Basis




BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

BasisBasis


BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

BasisBasis




BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

BasisBasis





Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

Basis




Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES

Basis





futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


futures market




bull Transportation







Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES






Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Sept

July $235

Sept $238

Mar

May $222

Dec $200

$212


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


Dec $3 26

May $306

Mar $311

$326

Sept

July $299

$280





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES





5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


5 1

49

51

45

47

Cash

4 1

43

39

41

450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550

December Futures


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES


North of the

0 30

040

0 30


0 10

020

030

0 10

020

030

0 10

000

010

0 10

000

010

0 30

-020

-010

0 30

-020

-010

Oct 2010 -030-030





Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES




Futures Contract

Forward Cash

Contract


Basis Contract










NOTES









NOTES








NOTES







NOTES

Documents

Improving Lives. Improvirrg Texas. Developing This Year's ... · 8:45 a.m. – 9:15 a.m. Marketing Plan Overview – Steve Amosson ... Milo Others: Payments: Land Leases Machinery