Slide 1

Improved Initialization for Precipitation Forecasts: Analysis of the ETReC missions during COPS 2007

Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Wirth, and George C. Craig

Institut für Physik der AtmosphäreDLR Oberpfaffenhofen

Germany

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008

Slide 2

Improved Water Vapour and Wind Initialisation for Precipitation Forecasts:

From existing LIDAR Data towards Targeted Observations2003

Improved Water Vapour and Wind Initialisation for Precipitation Forecasts:

Impact Studies with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System2005

Improved Initialisation for Precipitation Forecasts: Analysis of the ETReC missions during COPS 2007

2007

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008

Slide 3

T,P,q

u,v,w,TAS

Dropsondes:u,v, P,T,q

Doppler lidar:Horizontal & vertical wind

DIAL:H2O, Aerosolswu,v

Falcon payload for COPS/ETReC 2007

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008

Slide 4

48 cm Telescope

DIAL Lasers

wind lidar

LCD-ScreenKeyboard

Wavelength Control

Data Acquisition

Water Vapour and Wind Lidar on board the Falcon

DIAL Filters & Detectors

two 50 cm aircraft windows

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008

Slide 5

DLR Falcon Missions

Altogether: 48.8 flight hours/ 22.5 h funded by DFG

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008

Slide 10

Possible Flight Route

Sensitive Region:Singular Vector (ECMWF)

Sensitive Region:ETKF (MeteoFrance)

Upstream Mission: ETReC 2007 UOP 6

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Slide 11

Case Study on COPS IOP 13a on 1 August 2007

3 consecutive flights

-Flight 1 & 2: Upstream flights (OP - Faro & Faro - OP)

-Flight 3: Modified MAP flight over France

Diploma Thesis: Andreas Schäfler (Univ. Innsbruck)"Water vapour transport in a pre-convective

environment - use of airborne LIDAR measurements"

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Slide 12

Synoptic Situationfrom ECMWF short-term forecast

1 August 2007,16 UTC

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Slide 13

Water Vapor Mixing Ratio

Wind velocity

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Slide 14

DIFFERENCES LIDAR - ECMWF

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Slide 15

DIFFERENCES LIDAR - ECMWF

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008

Slide 16

Overall Aim of the Project

investigate the influence of simultaneously observed wind and water vapour fields from airborne lidar observations during COPS on the skill of the NWP, especially the quantitative precipitation forecasts using the 4D-Var data assimilation scheme of the ECMWF-IFS

In order to reach this goal, we proceed in three steps:

1. check of the data quality and coverage of the lidar data for the three UOPs with airborne observations during ETReC 2007,

2. analyse the wind and water vapor lidar data and perform a case study of a selected ETReC case, and

3. investigate the impact of the targeted airborne wind and water vapour observations and of the additional radiosonde and high-frequency AMDAR measurements of selected UOPs during ETReC 2007 on the forecast skill of NWP models