Improved energy sector planning to respond to climate change

Rohit KhannaESMAP Program Manager

How to convert global scenarios to national actions

Consensus buildingPlanning CommissionMinistriesMinistry of AgricultureMinistry of CoalMinistry of Environment & ForestsMinistry of External AffairsMinistry of FinanceMinistry of Heavy Industries & Public EnterprisesMinistry of Non-Conventional Energy SourcesMinistry of Petroleum & Natural GasMinistry of PowerMinistry of Road Transport & HighwaysMinistry of Science & TechnologyCouncilsConfederation of Indian IndustryCouncil of Scientific and Industrial ResearchFederation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and IndustryIndian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR)Indian Council of Medical ResearchNational Council for Cement and Building MaterialsAssociationsAssociated Chambers of Commerce and IndustryCement Manufacturers’ Association

LaboratoriesForest Survey of IndiaIndia Meteorological DepartmenIndia Meteorology DepartmentIndian Space Research Organisation National Chemical LaboratoryNational Physical LaboratoryRegional Research LaboratoryRemote Sensing Applications CentreNGOs and CentersCentre for Environment EducationCentre for Inter-Disciplinary Studies of Mountain and Hill EnvironmentCentre for Sustainable TechnologiesDevelopment AlternativesIntegrated Research and Action for DevelopmentIntegrated Research and Action for DevelopmentMalaria Research CentreNehru Foundation for DevelopmentInstitutesCentral Fuel Research InstituteCentral Glass and Ceramic Research InstituteCentral Leather Research InstituteCentral Mining Research InstituteCentral Rice Research InstituteCentral Road Research InstituteForest Research InstituteG.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment & Development

Indian Agricultural Research InstituteIndian Institute of Forest Management, BhopalIndian Institute of ManagementIndian Institute of PetroleumIndian Institute of ScienceIndian Institute of TechnologyIndian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyIndira Gandhi Institute of Development ResearchInstitute for Social and Economic ChangeInstitute of Radio-physics and ElectronicsKerala Forest Research InstituteMaulana Azad National Institute of TechnologyNational Dairy Research InstituteNational Environmental Engineering Research InstituteNational Institute of Advanced StudiesNational Institute of OceanographyThe Energy and Resources InstituteWildlife Institute of IndiaUniversitiesAligarh Muslim UniversityJadavpur UniversityJawaharlal Nehru UniversitySchool of Environmental ManagementTamil Nadu Agricultural UniversityTripura UniversityUniversity of Agricultural SciencesUniversity of Delhi

• A complex process

• Principal stakeholders involved in India’s low carbon planning

Multiple tools requiredQuestions:

Abatement opportunities

Technologies/investments

Marginal abatement cost

Bottom-up vs. Top-down

Questions:

Impact on economic growth,

employment, trade,

production choices, etc.

EFFECTTAMT

MACtoolLULUCF

Multi-regionCGE

Dynamic Stochastic

GE

EFFECT Model for Planning and Consensus Building

• Establish a macroeconomic outlook

• Build a picture of the sector

• Develop a forecast

• Establish alternative development scenarios

• Identify financing needs and options

MAC Tool Graphs : Wedges, Installed Power Capacity,

Investments

Case study: Mexico• Context: Government had previously established a national climate

change strategy; were in the process of preparing an Action Plan for specific sectoral LCD interventions (PECC)

• Methodology: WB was asked to contribute to PECC by looking at economic cost and investment requirements of alternative LCD scenarios

• Conclusions: A number of high potential and low cost measures: public transport and vehicle efficiency, efficiency measures and low-cost electricity supply options – but barriers prevent implementation

• Impacts:$500 million Climate Change DPL, April 2008$300 million Environmental sustainability DPL, Dec. 2008$1.5 billion Green Growth DPL, Oct. 2009$400 million Low Carbon Growth DPL, Nov. 20102 RE / EE SILS + 2 CIF operations

Case study: Poland• Context: Government concerns over cost of climate change mitigation

• Methodology:

• undertook a bottom-up study with addition of a linked macroeconomic analysis to address economic growth and fiscal concerns

• drawing on best practices in other EU countries was particularly helpful

• Conclusions: good policies could make a big difference by focusing on energy efficiency and low cost renewable energy to 2020 – other options not feasible in this time period

• Impact: $1.1 billion RE / EE DPL approved June 2011

HEAT: Assessing Climate Impacts on Energy Systems

• Low carbon planning is a gradual process built on long-term relationships

• Small investments in tools and planning can have a big payback in terms of scaling up deployment

• Avoid reinventing the wheel - make use of existing models and tools

• Be bold, but don’t underestimate the challenge of turning plans into investments and policy change

• The need to tailor analysis to the country’s needs – sub-sectoral work can be equally valuable

Lessons and experience

• Coordinate low carbon planning activities to maximize learning and share tools

• Need to focus on operationalizing plans to prepare investments for climate funds (CIFs, Energy+)

• Improve understanding of climate resilience – and implications for investments

Future priorities