Important Research Questions In Innovation and Technology

8/8/2019 Important Research Questions In Innovation and Technology

1/12Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1120991

ImportantResearchQuestionsinTechnology&Innovation

GerardJ.TellisApril15th2008

GerardJ.Tellis([email protected])isDirectoroftheCenterforGlobalInnovation,

NeelyChairinAmericanEnterprise,andProfessorofMarketingattheMarshall

SchoolofBusiness,UniversityofSouthernCalifornia.Thisresearchbenefited

fromagenerousgiftfromDonMurraytotheCenterforGlobalInnovation.


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2.WhyDoGreatFirmsFail?Givenhowimportantinnovationisforthesurvivalandsuccessoffirms,onewouldexpectthat

theywouldinvestmassiveamountsoftime,equipment,andpersonnelintoresearchfor

innovation.Thelargestfirmsineachmarketwouldhavethemostresourcesforthistask.Hence,theywouldbethemostsuccessfulatinnovationandwouldgrowtodominatethenext

technologicalplatform.Assuch,wealthwouldleadtogreaterwealth.However,historyrevealsthatlarge,wealthyfirmsfrequentlyfail.Indeed,greatmarketleadersinonegeneration

sometimesdonotevensurvivethenextgeneration.Forexample,leadershipinthepersonnelcomputermarketmovedfromAltair,toTandy,toApple,toIBM,toCompaq,toDell,toHP

(TellisandGolder1996;2001).Whydoespriorstrengthnotleadtocontinuedstrength?

Researchershaveputforthanumberoftheoriesforwhygreatfirmsfail.Schumpeter(1942)at

leastinitiallyattributedfailuretothedisadvantagesoflargesize.Foster(1986)attributedthe

failureoffirmstotheemergenceofanewtechnologyandthecommitmentofolddominantfirmstotheoldtechnology.Failureoccurredwhenthenewtechnologycrossedtheoldtechnologyin

performance.Continuingonthetechnologicalexplanation,Utterback(1994)attributedfailureto

thetypeoftechnology.Failureoccurrednotmerelyifanewtechnologymerged,butifthenewtechnologywascompetence-enhancingratherthancompetencedestroying.Christensen(1997)

wentastepfurtherandattributedfailuretothesinglemindedfocusofestablishedfirmson

meetingneedsofthemassmarketofcustomersservedbytheoldtechnology.Thatfocusblindedthemtotheemergenceofanewtechnologythatwasinferiortotheoldtechnologyonthe

primarydimensionofperformancebutsuperioronsomesecondarydimensionthatsatisfiedonly

anichemarket.Failureoccurred,whenthenewtechnologysurpassedtheperformanceoftheold

technologyevenontheprimarydimension.ChandyandTellis(1998)attributedfailuretotheinternalcultureofthefirm.Afirmwithaculture,whichfocusesonthefuture,instillsinternal

competition,andiswillingtocannibalizepastsuccessfulproducts,ismorelikelytoembrace

innovationsandstayaheadofthegame.

Whichofthesetheoriesbestexplainsthefailureoffirms?Theyhavenotbeentestedstrictly

againsteachotherinarigorousfieldexperimentorempiricalstudy.Thejuryisstillout.

3. ShouldFirmsMakeorBuyInnovations?IndevelopingtheBoeing787Dreamliner,Boeingdecidedtooutsourcethemanufactureand

evenresearchofabout70%oftheplanetofirmsallovertheworld(KothaandNolan2005).

Thisincludedoutsourcingpartsofthewings,thatBoeingconsideredthemostimportantpartsorcrownjewelsoftheaircraft.InthepastBoeingreservedmanufactureofthewingstointernal

divisionsonly.Moreover,Boeingoutsourcedsuchmanufactureeventhoughitwaswellknow

thatsomeofthefirmsbuildingthesepartshadaspirationstogrowintomanufacturingentire

planesthemselves.WasBoeingnurturingthecompetitorsoftomorrow?Wouldthesesuppliersonedaygrowtothreatenifnotdisplaceitsdominanceoftheairplanemanufacturingbusiness?

FordecadesP&Gdevelopeditsnewproductsentirelywithinitslaboratories.Itadoptedapolicyofignoringandrejectinganythingthatwasnotinventedhere.Recently,P&G,decidedto

abandonitspolicyofdevelopingallnewproductsinternallytodevelopingatleast50%ofits

productsfromtheoutside(Huston&Sakkab2002).Thispolicyhascometobecalledopen


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innovation(Chesbrough2004).ItinvolvesthesourcingofnewideasandinnovationfromtheoutsideoroutsourcingevenR&Dtooutsidefirms.

Whetherafirmshouldmakeorbuyitssupplieshasbeenaperennialstrategyissue.Onetheory

enlighteningthesolutionhasbeenthatoftransactionscosts.Afirmshouldmakewhenthe

transactionscostsofbuyingfromtheoutsideexceedthecostsofacquiringtheexpertisetomakeontheinside(WalkerandWeber1984).However,theexamplesaboveillustrateafarmore

complexsetofproblemsandopportunitiesthatfirmsfaceintheglobaleconomytoday.Productstodayaresocomplexandcentersofexcellencesodistributedallovertheworld,thatafirm

wouldbeunwisetocompletelyignoregoodinnovationsandexpertiseontheoutside(Rigby&

Zook2002).Whatisthecoretechnology,ifany,thatafirmshouldreserveforinternaldevelopment?Whenshouldafirmgooutsideforideasandwhenstayinside?Inwhichcountry

shouldafirmlocateitsR&Dandhowrecruitandorganizeitstalentforthistask?

Ifafirmhaschosentomakeitsinnovation,someotherimportantissuesarise.Howshouldafirm

organizetobeinnovative?Shouldituseafunctionalordivisionalstructure?Ifthelatter,should

itresorttocooperatingdivisions,competingdivisions,spinouts,orspinoffs?Theseareimportantissuesthatmeritresearch.

4.WhatDrivesTakeoffofInnovations?

ResearchershavelongknownthatthesalesofanewproductfollowanS-shapedcurve(Bass

1969).FollowingtheearlyworkofBass,numerousmodelshavebeendevelopedtocapturethe

shapeofthiscurveandpredictitspattern(ChandrasekaranandTellis2007a).However,recently,researchershaveshownthattheearlyflatportionofthecurvepriortotakeoffislongwhilethe

firstturningpointortakeoffissharperthanpreviouslybelieved.TheBass(1969)modeland

mostofitsextensionsarenotsuitableforpredictingtakeoff,becausetheyneeddatapastthematuritytogetreliableestimatesofthemodel.GolderandTellis(1997)developedahazard

modeltoestimatetakeoffandshowedthatpriceplayedanimportantroleintakeoff.AgarwalandBayus(2002)arguedthatproductinnovationswereanimportantdeterminantoftakeoff.Anotherfactorthatcouldaffecttakeoffiscascadesorhype(GolderandTellis2004).However,Tellis,

StremerschandYin(2003)andChandrasekaranandTellis(2008a)showedthatcultureand

nationalidentitieswereotherimportantdeterminantsoftakeoff,especiallyinthediffusionofinnovationsacrossnations.Ifdifferencesamongcountriesaresharpandpersistent,itmayhelpto

resolvethechoicebetweenawaterfallorsprinklerstrategyforthegloballaunchofanew

product.

Takeoffisaveryimportanteventinthehistoryofaninnovation.Failuretopredictitsoccurrence

couldleadtoprematurewithdrawalofanewproduct,overcommitmenttoafailedinnovation,or

failuretoexploitanunexpectedtakeoff.Whichofthepotentialdriversoftakeoffarethemostimportant?Howcanmanagerscontroltakeoff?Shouldtheyuseasprinklerorwaterfallstrategy?

Ifthelatter,inwhichcountryshouldtheyfirstlaunchaninnovation?Weneedanswerstothese

questionsbecauseofthecriticalimportanceofthephenomenon.

5.WhatCausesaTroughinNewProductSales?InhisbookCrossingtheChasm,Moore(1991)highlightedtheproblemofasuddenand

substantialdroportroughinsalesofanewproduct,afteraperiodofrapidgrowth.Heattributed


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thetroughtothegapbetweeninnovatorswhohaveadoptedanewproductandthemassmarketthatisstillnotconvincedaboutit.Goldenberg,LibaiandMueller(2002)foundthatthetrough

occurredin52%of32consumerelectronicproductsintheUS.Theyshowedthatalackof

communicationbetweentheinnovatorsandthemassmarketcouldleadtosuchatrough.

However,otherresearchershavepointedoutthatbesideschasmsbetweensegments,thetrough

couldbecausedbyanumberofotherfactorsincludingtechnologicalinertia,negativecascades,economicrecessions,andslowrepurchasesbyearlyadopters(ChandrasekaranandTellis2008b)

Whilethetroughisarelativelynewandunder-researchedphenomenoninmarketing,itisavery

importantone.Firmsthatrampupproductionandmarketinginexpectationofcontinuedsales

couldberudelysurprisedbyanysuchsuddensetback.Otherfirmsmaythinkthatisthebeginningofmaturityorevendeclineandmaydiscontinueinvestmentsintheproduct.Whatis

theprevalenceoftroughsamongnewproducts?Whenandwhyisitmostlikelytooccur?Which

oftheaboveexplanationsisresponsibleforcausingatrough?Becauseoftheimportanceofthistopic,answerstotheseissueshaveimportantimplicationsformanagersandresearchers.

6. IsNetworkorQualitymoreImportantforSuccess?Anotuncommonphenomenonintheageofhightechnologyorinternetproductsisthatasinglebrandhasanoverwhelmingmarketshare.Forexample,Intel,iPod,iTunes,MicrosoftWindows,

MicrosoftOffice,eBay,Facebook,Amazon,allseemtodominatetheirrespectivemarkets.Also,insomecases,dominanceoccursquitefast.Whydoesthisphenomenonoccur?Analysts

attributeittodirectorindirectnetworkeffects.Directoruserbasednetworkeffectsoccurwhen

thebenefitfromaproductincreaseswiththenumberofotherusersofthesameproduct.eBayismoreusefulasanauctionsitethemorepeopleuseit.MicrosoftWordsusefulnesstoconsumers

increasesasmoreconsumersusethesameprogram.Indirectnetworkeffectsoccurwhenthe

benefitofaproductincreaseswiththenumberofaccessoriesthatrunwithoronit.Forexample,iPodismoreusefulasiTuneslinkswithmoremusiclabels.SonyPlaystationismoreusefulthe

moregamesaredevelopedtorunonit.Someeconomistshavearguedthatinthepresenceofnetworkeffects,abrandthatgetsanearly

lead,eitherbecauseofenteringthemarketearlyorthroughsomeaccident,mayendupwiththe

highestmarketshare(ChurchandGandal1993;FarrellandSaloner1985;KatzandShapiro1986).Thisphenomenonissometimescalledpathdependence,becausethemarketsharepathof

thebranddependsonsomeearlyaccident(BesenandFarrell1994).Theargumentgoes,that

networkeffectsorpathdependencecouldbesostrongthataninferiorbrandcoulddominateits

marketandevenlockoutsuperiorqualityorlowerpricedalternatives.

Someresearchershavearguedthecasefornetworkseffectsandpathdependenceisoverstated

(LiebowitzandMargolis1995;Tellis,NirajandYin2008).However,wearestillfacedwiththepersistentdominanceofbrandsthathaveknowntohavemanyflaws(e.g.Windows).Whatare

therealcausesofmarketsuccessanddominanceofinnovationsforhightechandinternet

products?Arenetworkeffectsmoreimportantthanqualityforsuchproducts?Howdosuchnetworksdevelopandwhatcontroldomanagershaveoverthem?Doinferiorbrandsreallywin

outthroughaccidentsofhistory?Answerstothesequestionshaveimportantimplicationsfor

managersandpublicpolicymakers.


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7. ShouldHardwareorSoftwareComeFirst?Twoproductsrelatedbyindirectnetworkeffectscreateanotherproblemformanagersandpolicy

makers.Whichshouldcomefirst?Suchlinkedproductsoftenhaveahardwarecomponentanda

softwarecomponent.Forexample,thePC(hardware)ismoreusefulasthenumberofprograms(software)runoffitincreases.Moregenerally,thehardwaremaybeconsideredaheavy

investmentcategorywhilethesoftwaremaybeconsideredalightinvestmentcategory.

Thepresenceofindirectnetworkeffectsraisesachickenandeggproblem(CaillaudandJullien2003;Gandal2002;Gupta,JainandSawhney1999).Shouldfirmsinvestinthehardwareorthe

softwarefirst?Hardwaremanufacturesarguethatwithoutprograms,consumerswillnotbuythe

hardware.Softwaremanufacturersarguethatwithouthardwaretoplayon,thesoftwareismeaningless.ThisdilemmaiswhatdelayedandstilldelaysthelaunchofHDTVoreasyspread

ofethanolorelectriccarsintheUS.Inthelattercases,thelinkisbetweencarsandthenetwork

ofrefuelingstations.Someanalystsarguethattheissuehasnosolutionliketheproverbialchicken-and-eggproblem.However,solutioncouldoccurfrommanysourcesincluding

commitment,levelofinvestment,regulation,or(Stremerschetal2007).Howprevalentisthe

problemoffirstinvestmentforsuchlinkedproducts?Shouldhardwareorsoftwarecomefirst?Underwhichconditions?Whenifeverandhowshouldgovernmentintervenetobreakthe

impassesbetweenhardwareandsoftwaresuppliers,forthebenefitofconsumers?Researchto

answerthesequestionscanservemultiplepublics.

8. DoesInnovationorAdvertisingCreateGreatBrands?Intel,Samsung,Apple.Alltheseareunquestionablygreatbrandnames,withhighmarketshare,

strongnamerecognition,andagreatreputationforquality.Buthowdidtheygettobeso?

Advertisershavelongarguedthatbrandsarecreatedbycarefulandsustainedadvertising

throughdecades(Aaker1991).However,evidenceforsuchclaimshasoftenbeenanecdotal.Moreover,suchanecdotesdonotcontrolforimportantotherfactorsthatcouldcontributeto

marketshare,reputation,andsuccess.Forexample,whileIntel,Samsung,andApplehavehadoutstandingadvertisingcampaigns,theyhavealsohadoutstandinginnovations(Tellis2005).So,researcherstillneedtoaddresssomeimportantquestions:whatroledoesadvertisingand

innovationplayinthedevelopmentofgreatbrands?Doesonecomebeforetheother,isone

moreimportantthantheother,orissuccessaninteractionofthetwo?Whatarethedynamicsofthedevelopmentofbrandnamesandreputationsovertime?

9.WhatisthePayofftoInnovation?

Thenormalwaythatmanagersinvestforinnovationisbycomparingtheinvestmentcosts

againstthefuturemarketrevenuesfromaninnovation.However,thepayofffrominnovationsisofteninthedistantanduncertainfuture.Notonlymustmanagersdiscounttheprofitsfromfuture

timeperiodsbuttheymustalsofactorintheuncertaintiesfromeverearningthoserevenues.Someanalystssuggestturningtothestockmarkettoassesshowthemarketvaluesinvestmentsininnovations.Thelogicfromdoingsoisthatthemarketisefficientsothatthestockprice

reflectscurrentanddiscountedfuturecashflowsthatwouldaccruetothefirmgiventheall

informationavailableatthetime.Anyabnormalreturninthestockprice(beyondthenormalfor

thewholemarket)onsomeannouncementofinnovationwouldreflectthevalueofthatinnovationatthetimeoftheannouncement.


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Afewstudieshaveshownthatthemarketdoesindeedshowabnormalreturnstocertaineventsinthelifecycleofdevelopingandcommercializinganinnovation(Chaney,DevinneyandWiner

1991).Nevertheless,thesefindingsraiseahostofimportantissues(SoodandTellis2008).What

istherightmetricandapproachforevaluatingthereturnstoaninnovation?Ifoneshouldfocus

onabnormalreturns,whataretheabnormalreturnstovariousstagesofaninnovation,suchas

initiation,development,andcommercialization?Whatarethetotalreturnstoallstagesandeventsinthelifeofaninnovation?Doinvestmentsininnovationultimatelypayoffintermsof

totalreturns?Answerstothesequestionsareofcriticalimportanceindeterminingthevalueofinvestmentsininnovationandadvisingmanagersandinvestorsaboutstrategiestheyshould

adopt.

10. WhatDrivestheWealthofNations?

Aquestionthathaslongintriguedresearchersiswhatdrivesthewealthofnationsandwhatrolehasinnovationtoplayinit?Indeed,manydisciplineshaveaddressedthisquestionandhave

comeupwithquitevariedanswers.Oneobviouscandidateseemstoberawmaterials,which

manypeopleassumetothemostimportantcauseofwealth.Alongtheselines,atleastonerecent

authorhasarguedthatgeographyplaysacriticalroleinenablingtheharnessingofcropsandanimalsforthedevelopmentofprosperity(Diamond1999).However,couldlackofrawmineral,

agricultural,oranimalresourcesleadpeopletobeinnovative,whileabundanceofthese

resourcesleadspeopletobelazy?Someauthorshavearguedthatakeydriverofwealthisaparticularreligion,whichmakesthosebelieversmorematerialistic,industrious,andinnovative

thanbelieversinotherreligions(Weber1930).Otherauthorshavearguedthatclimateplaysa

criticalroleinfosteringaworkethicofinnovationandindustriousness(Parker2000).Stillotherauthorshavearguedfortheimportanceofsocialandpoliticalsystems(suchaspatentlaw)that

havegivenindividualstheincentivestobeinnovative(Landes1999).Economistshaveargued

fortheroleofregulation,investmentinR&D,andeducationoftheworkforce(Fuhrman,PorterandStern2002).Incontrasttotheseperspectives,arecentstudyarguesthatcultureisthemost

importantdeterminantofacountrysinnovativeness(Tellis,PrabhuandChandy2008).Anoverviewofhistoryshowsthatnocountryorcivilizationhasbeenpemanatelydominantor

wealthy.Wealthhasnotledtogreaterwealthandsuccess,asatleastsomeoftheabove

explanationswouldleadonetoconclude.Ratherhistoryhasbeenwitnesstotheperennialriseandfallofcivilizations.Thusanyexplanationofthiscomplexbutimportantproblemneedsto

takeintoaccountthefailureofanyonenationtoremaininnovativeandwealthypermanently.

Moreover,evenwithinanation,clustersofinnovativeness(e.g.SiliconValley)riseandfallwithtime.Theanswertothisproblemisnotmerelyofhistoricalimportance.Itinformspublicand

governmentpolicyandfirmstrategytoday.Keyresearchquestionarethefollowing.What

causesnationstobeinnovative?Isitclimate,geography,culture,religion,economics,or

politics?Doestheinnovativenessofacountryaffecttheinnovativenessoffirmswithinit?Ordoestheinnovativenessofacountryrestontheinnovationofitsfirms?Arethereinnovative

clusterswithincountries?Ifso,whatdrivesthatphenomenonandhowcanitbereplicated?Isthe

locationofafirmsresearchdepartmentmerelyoneofoperationalefficiencyordoesitaffecttheinnovativenessofthedepartmentandthefirm?


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ConclusionTechnologicalinnovationisanimportantforceinmarketstoday.Itcriticallyaffectsthefortunes

ofconsumers,firms,andnations.Despiteresearchacrossmanydisciplines,manyimportant

questionsremainunanswered.Thegoalofthisessayistoidentifysomeofthesequestions,indicatewhatresearchhasprecededthosequestions,andtriggerinterestinfindingsanswersto

thepersistentquestions.


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Important Research Questions In Innovation and Technology