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Implications for food security and livelihoods. Based on…. Where are we in the programme ?. Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Ecosystems supporting fish. Fish stocks/aquaculture species. Implications for food security and livelihoods. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Implications for food security and livelihoods
Based on…..
Where are we in the programme?Projected changes to
atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for food security and livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on
opportunities
Outline
•Factors affecting availability of fish for food• Reef area, population growth, climate change
•Implications for food security• Relative importance of population growth and
climate change
Plans to use fish for food security
• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year
• Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg
Samoa • >60 kg of fish per person
per year
Where does most fish come from?
• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs, mangroves and sea grasses
Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay
The problem!
• Sustainable catches from most reefs are unknown
Solution: use median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2 per year
Reef around Samoa
Coral reef area in Samoa
Depth (m)Reef area
(km2)Reef fish
production (t)Estimated
catch
40 465 ~1400 n/a
100 2000* 6000 6075**
*Includes much rough ground with no living coral** Includes reef fish and invertebrates, not nearshore pelagic fish
Factors affecting availability of fish
Year Population
2010 183,000
2035 202,000
2050 210,000
2100 240,000
Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme
• Population growth
Effects of population growth on availability of fish per person
30 2925
3
0
10
20
30
40
50 Samoa
35 kg
Year
2035 2050 2100
5 6 10
2035 (-2 to -5%)
2050 (-20%) 2100 (-20 to -50%)
Today
Effects of climate change
Additional effects of climate change
Effects of population growth Additional effects of climate change
5 6 6 10
2525 22
30 2929 25 25
20
1013
0
10
20
30
40
50 Samoa
35 kg
Year
2035 2050 2100
2525 22
5 6 6 10
How best to fill the gap?
Coastal fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna
Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Tuna
Tuna
Tuna
Tuna
Implications for livelihoods
