Implementing REMI at the ARC MPO Modeling Webinar … 85,671 85,671 85,671 85,671 2000-06: 56,343 56,343 56,343 56,343 2007 20: 41,344 13,336 14,371 14,200

Implementing REMI at the ARC

MPO Modeling Webinar

January 25, 2011

Regional Forecast Area

ISSUES ADDRESSED

Problems with REMI standard

• Too many jobs and people, led to TAC 1 calibration

• National GDP too high, led to recessionary adjustment

Problem with Migration - Scenario #1

• Net migration too low, led to TAC 2 calibration

Problem with Outliers - Scenario #2

• Hispanic fertility held at historical levels; convergence needed

• Educ . Svcs and Local Govt adjustment needed to continue

CALIBRATIONS & POLICY VARIABLES

Decreased the Gross Domestic Product

• Indicate a longer recession [2009-2011]

Included ARC’s employment estimates

• Net effect reduction in jobs from standard [All years]

Increased the labor force participation rates

• Applied BLS participation rates [All years]

Increased Economic Migration: all years

Decreased International Migration: all years

CALIBRATIONS & POLICY VARIABLES

Decreased the Hispanic Fertility Rates

• Assumptions of increased educational attainment and income

levels in later generations; adjustments 2015-40

• Converging towards mean, but highest rates among all races and

ethnicities

’Smoothed’ ARC sector job adjustments

• Moved public education jobs from Local Government (Pub Admin in

REMI) to Educational Services to match ARC ES-202

• Continued through to 2040 (end of forecast period)

HOW THEY MEASURE UP

REMI standard vs. TAC 1 vs. TAC 2 vs. TAC 3

• Demographic changes

• Economic impacts

Reasonableness of calibrations to the model

• Review of population, employment comparisons

• Feedback on the adjustments to fertility rates

• Review employment by sector

EMPLOYMENT COMPARISON

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

3750

4000

4250

4500

4750

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Total Employment

TAC 3 TAC 2 TAC 1 Standard

EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

1997

80.567

2002

-18.510

2007

-310.387

2008

15.020

2016

77.963

2020

46.778

2032

66.737

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

3750

4000

4250

4500

4750

-330

-290

-250

-210

-170

-130

-90

-50

-10

30

70

110

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Total Employment Comparison

TAC 3 Annual Chg. TAC 3 TAC 2 TAC 1 Standard

Snapshot of Annual Avg. Job change

Standard TAC 1 TAC 2 TAC 3

1990-99: 85,671 85,671 85,671 85,671

2000-06: 56,343 56,343 56,343 56,343

2007-20: 41,344 13,336 14,371 14,200

2021-30: 38,051 49,501 53,326 53,071

2031-40: 50,126 61,284 63,563 63,745

RELATIVE EMPLOYMENT

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Pe

rce

nt

Pct. Of National Employment


POPULATION COMPARISON

3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

5,500

5,750

6,000

6,250

6,500

6,750

7,000

7,250

7,500

7,750

8,000

8,250

8,500

8,750

9,000

9,250

9,500

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Total Population

TAC 3 Annual Avg chg. TAC 3 TAC 2 TAC 1 Standard

Average Annual Pop Growth

Standard TAC 1 TAC 2 TAC 3

1990-99: 117,750 117,750 117,750 117,750

2000-06: 142,188 142,188 142,188 142,188

2007-20: 128,682 84,865 106,961 95,376

2021-30: 104,524 106,498 106,716 92,460

2031-40: 92,983 112,068 101,984 87,837

HISPANIC BIRTH RATES

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

1991199519992003200720112015201920232027203120352039

bir

ths p

er

10

0 f

em

ale

s

Ages 10-19

TAC 3: Age 10-14 Standard: Age 10-14


0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1991199519992003200720112015201920232027203120352039

bir

ths p

er

10

0 f

em

ale

s

Ages 20-29



0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

1991199519992003200720112015201920232027203120352039

bir

ths p

er

10

0 f

em

ale

s

Ages 30-39



0.0000.0020.0040.0060.0080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.020

1991199519992003200720112015201920232027203120352039

bir

ths p

er

10

0 f

em

ale

s

Ages 40-49



NATURAL CHANGE COMPARISON

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

All Race & Ethnicities


BIRTHS COMPARISON

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s



DEATHS COMPARISON

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s



RACE & ETHNICITY: TAC 3

0

125

250

375

500

625

750

875

1000

1125

1250

1375

1500

1625

1750

1875

2000

2125

2250

2375

2500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Hispanic Population


TAC 3 SUMMARY

As a result of the calibration/new policy variables

• About 305k fewer people in the Atlanta Region in 2030, cf: TAC 2

Total population in 2030: 7,377,949

• About 450k fewer people than TAC 2 scenario in 2040

Total population in 2040: 8,256,322

• Since 2008, almost 52,000 jobs annually to 2040 in TAC 3

Compared to just over 51,000 in TAC 2 scenario

COMPONENTS OF GROWTH: TAC 3

0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Total Population

Natural Change Migration Population (right axis)

TAC 3 OVERVIEW

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Components Summary

Total Employment Population

OTHER QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS

Next Steps•Website for ARC Forecasting:

http://www.atlantaregional.com/html/4220.

aspx

•Assuming TAC agreement, draft Consensus

Statement for TAC member signature

•Begin Disaggregation process (TAZ-D) to

include jurisdictional outreach

http://www.atlantaregional.com/html/4220.aspx

http://www.atlantaregional.com/html/4220.aspx

Background

Material presented at TAC Meeting 3

EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTS

Replaced REMI employment with ARC employment

estimates

Added proprietor jobs to ARC employment estimates

Results in lower employment base and fewer jobs in

the out years

EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTSUMMARY TABLE

NONEMPLOYER (PROPRIETORS) EMPLOYMENT

20-COUNTY AREA: 2002-2006

NAICS Industry 02NE 03NE 04NE 05NE 06NE

11 AgForFish 726 919 904 1,041 1,095

21 Mining 12 12 11 33 34

22 Utilities 11,764 11,695 108 269 356

23 Const 32,737 36,799 51,924 55,281 56,205

31-33 Mfg 4,019 4,015 3,860 3,989 4,524

42 Wtrade 11,204 11,930 7,252 7,247 7,614

44-45 Rtrade 25,369 27,509 29,989 31,007 31,112

48-49 TransWsh 9,726 10,475 15,196 16,625 18,595

51 Info 4,978 5,944 5,712 6,037 6,839

52 Finan 14,625 16,268 11,969 12,389 13,136

53 REAL 35,340 39,163 43,764 49,568 52,410

54 PTSCI 50,890 54,638 56,566 60,522 62,598

56 Admin 23,668 24,946 32,752 36,680 40,340

61 Educ 8,333 9,350 7,336 8,740 9,776

62 Hlth 17,541 19,725 23,658 25,879 28,233

71 ArtsEntRec 13,198 14,069 16,109 17,284 18,458

72 AccomFood 13,454 15,038 5,054 5,374 6,028

81 OthSvcs 34,660 39,888 55,632 59,738 62,496

Total 312,244 342,383 367,796 397,703 419,849

EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENT

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Proprietors 2002-2006

20-county Area

02NE 03NE 04NE 05NE 06NE


28.6%

2.2%3.3%

30.2%

2.3%

4.8%

10.5%12.0%

6.8%

10.4%

53.2%

28.4%

17.6%

4.8%

11.6%

40.9%

3.0%

47.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Share of Total Industry Employment

Proprietors by NAICS 2006

20-county Area


2.256

2.344

2.356

2.676

2.781

2.810

3.106

3.189

3.190

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

2006

2007

2008

Millions

REMI ARC+NE ARC

EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTDifferences

(TAC 2-Standard)2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030 2040

00-08 change

08-20 change

20-30 change

30-40 change

00-30 change

00-40 change

Forestry, Fishing, Related Activities, and Other

0 0 0 -3.562 -3.576 -3.621 -4.019 -2.977 -1.577 -0.445 -3.576 0.599 1.400 1.132 -1.577 -0.445

Mining 0 0 0 -1.710 -1.744 -1.756 -1.999 -1.435 -0.727 -0.120 -1.744 0.309 0.708 0.607 -0.727 -0.120

Utilities 0 0 0 -1.177 -1.120 -1.309 -1.563 -1.446 -1.067 -0.696 -1.120 -0.326 0.379 0.371 -1.067 -0.696

Construction 0 0 0 -24.461 -29.455 -35.549 -39.907 -25.578 -11.741 -3.930 -29.455 3.877 13.837 7.811 -11.741 -3.930

Manufacturing 0 0 0 -10.105 -9.520 -10.676 -18.305 -10.773 -8.611 -9.600 -9.520 -1.253 2.162 -0.989 -8.611 -9.600

Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 -12.363 -10.792 -12.584 -16.625 -13.715 -9.106 -5.122 -10.792 -2.923 4.609 3.984 -9.106 -5.122

Retail Trade 0 0 0 -26.801 -23.705 -28.699 -35.069 -35.741 -28.784 -21.355 -23.705 -12.036 6.957 7.429 -28.784 -21.355

Transportation and Warehousing

0 0 0 11.591 12.510 10.908 6.903 4.204 -1.374 -7.687 12.510 -8.306 -5.578 -6.313 -1.374 -7.687

Information 0 0 0 -4.439 -3.443 -4.709 -6.719 -6.426 -4.860 -3.628 -3.443 -2.983 1.566 1.232 -4.860 -3.628

Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 -25.810 -23.566 -25.270 -27.776 -21.425 -13.266 -6.303 -23.566 2.141 8.159 6.963 -13.266 -6.303

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

0 0 0 -41.241 -40.040 -42.723 -46.294 -39.858 -25.573 -12.190 -40.040 0.182 14.285 13.383 -25.573 -12.190

Professional and Technical Services

0 0 0 -32.482 -31.248 -35.321 -41.696 -40.918 -30.346 -19.355 -31.248 -9.670 10.572 10.991 -30.346 -19.355

Management of Companies and Enterprises

0 0 0 -2.316 -1.958 -2.403 -3.575 -3.066 -2.534 -1.894 -1.958 -1.108 0.532 0.640 -2.534 -1.894

Administrative and Waste Services

0 0 0 -33.261 -31.186 -34.962 -40.685 -36.759 -25.446 -14.978 -31.186 -5.573 11.313 10.468 -25.446 -14.978

Educational Services 0 0 0 62.450 62.648 61.327 59.731 44.870 19.620 -6.178 62.648 -17.778 -25.250 -25.798 19.620 -6.178

Health Care and Social Assistance

0 0 0 -18.404 -15.630 -19.956 -24.599 -30.058 -29.386 -25.084 -15.630 -14.428 0.672 4.302 -29.386 -25.084

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

0 0 0 -7.380 -6.917 -7.923 -9.192 -9.958 -8.512 -6.295 -6.917 -3.041 1.446 2.217 -8.512 -6.295

Accommodation and Food Services

0 0 0 -14.101 -12.854 -17.020 -22.165 -27.695 -24.251 -18.596 -12.854 -14.841 3.444 5.655 -24.251 -18.596

Other Services, except Public Administration

0 0 0 -19.609 -17.937 -20.863 -24.568 -23.779 -18.371 -12.482 -17.937 -5.842 5.408 5.889 -18.371 -12.482

State and Local 0 0 0 -86.096 -85.160 -89.370 -92.909 -81.329 -48.981 -15.058 -85.160 3.831 32.348 33.923 -48.981 -15.058

Federal Civilian 0 0 0 -29.526 -29.219 -29.578 -30.067 -24.374 -12.457 -0.556 -29.219 4.845 11.917 11.901 -12.457 -0.556

Federal Military 0 0 0 -12.634 -12.401 -12.668 -13.018 -10.669 -5.532 -0.405 -12.401 1.732 5.137 5.127 -5.532 -0.405

TAC 2 AGE COHORTS

Ages 0-4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Total Population

Ages 0-4

Ages 5-9

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

Ages 25-29

Ages 30-34

Ages 35-39

Ages 40-44

Ages 45-49

Ages 50-54

Ages 55-59

Ages 60-64

Ages 65-69

Ages 70-74

Ages 75-79

Ages 80-84

Ages 85+

TAC 2 HISPANIC

Ages 0-4

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Total Population

Ages 0-4

Ages 5-9

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

Ages 25-29

Ages 30-34

Ages 35-39

Ages 40-44

Ages 45-49

Ages 50-54

Ages 55-59

Ages 60-64

Ages 65-69

Ages 70-74

Ages 75-79

Ages 80-84

Ages 85+

TAC 2 WHITE NON-HISPANIC

Ages 50-54

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Total Population

Ages 0-4

Ages 5-9

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

Ages 25-29

Ages 30-34

Ages 35-39

Ages 40-44

Ages 45-49

Ages 50-54

Ages 55-59

Ages 60-64

Ages 65-69

Ages 70-74

Ages 75-79

Ages 80-84

Ages 85+

TAC 2 BLACK NON-HISPANIC

Ages 45-49

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Total Population

Ages 0-4

Ages 5-9

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

Ages 25-29

Ages 30-34

Ages 35-39

Ages 40-44

Ages 45-49

Ages 50-54

Ages 55-59

Ages 60-64

Ages 65-69

Ages 70-74

Ages 75-79

Ages 80-84

Ages 85+

TAC 2 OTHER NON-HISPANIC

Ages 35-39

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Total Population

Ages 0-4

Ages 5-9

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

Ages 25-29

Ages 30-34

Ages 35-39

Ages 40-44

Ages 45-49

Ages 50-54

Ages 55-59

Ages 60-64

Ages 65-69

Ages 70-74

Ages 75-79

Ages 80-84

Ages 85+

COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Th

ou

sa

nd

s


Natural Change Births Deaths

MIGRATION BY RACE & ETHNICITY

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

White Non-Hispanic

Net Economic Retired International

-707

142128354249566370

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Black Non-Hispanic


-5-2.5

02.5

57.510

12.515

17.520

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Other Non-Hispanic


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Hispanic


HISPANIC MIGRATION

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

26

30

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

TAC 1

Economic Retired International Special populations

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

26

30

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

TAC 2


RACE & ETHNICITY: TAC 2POPULATION

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

White Non-Hispanic

TAC 2 TAC 1 REMI standard

500750

100012501500175020002250250027503000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Black Non-Hispanic


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Other Non-Hispanic


0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Hispanic


NET MIGRATION COMPARISON

0

25

50

75

100

125

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Th

ou

sa

nd

s



Employment

adjustment

Economic

slowdown

Economic

recovery

ECONOMIC MIGRATION COMPARED

2007

53.851

2007

-12.721

2007

72.683

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Th

ou

sa

nd

s



REMI RECESSION ADJUSTED

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

REMI 11102.771 11523.602 11760.580 11859.570 11713.610 11954.801 12384.008

BEA/EFC 10989.500 11294.800 11523.900 11652.730 11316.000 11291.000 11494.000

Pct. Diff 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 3.4% 5.6% 7.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

Bil

lio

ns

US GDP (chained 2000$)

SUMMARY OF FORECASTSARC 20-County Area Units 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030 2040 00-30

change

00-40

changeTotal Employment Thousands

(Jobs)2797.292 2831.179 2812.669 2832.454 2907.816 3003.487 3105.609 2855.87 2873.258 2799.389 2749.359 3292.314 3787.321 4400.161 990.029 1602.869

Total Employment as % of Nation Percent 1.677 1.695 1.688 1.69 1.705 1.724 1.741 1.563 1.565 1.563 1.572 1.769 1.926 2.046 0.249 0.369

Private Non-Farm Employment Thousands

(Jobs)2500.415 2521.84 2493.032 2506.828 2576.182 2664.808 2758.749 2633.702 2646.581 2576.095 2530.214 3022.967 3448.519 3989.31 948.104 1488.895

Private Non-Farm Employment as

% of Nation

Percent 1.777 1.791 1.78 1.78 1.791 1.808 1.822 1.692 1.694 1.695 1.706 1.892 2.023 2.115 0.246 0.338

Gross Domestic Product Billions of

Fixed (2000) 199.103 201.815 204.269 207.611 216.959 225.8 235.848 211.921 215.559 210.307 211.09 321.913 459.548 648.643 260.445 449.540

Personal Income Billions of

Current Dollars141.707 147.884 149.705 152.797 161.804 174.831 184.989 182.099 189.115 191.313 191.366 384.052 743.157 1446.642 601.450 1304.935

Personal Income as % of Nation Percent 1.683 1.697 1.687 1.67 1.666 1.7 1.687 1.55 1.538 1.529 1.53 1.702 1.858 1.996 0.175 0.313

Disposable Personal Income Billions of

Current Dollars121.781 127.73 132.302 136.371 144.745 155.26 163.141 160.154 167.518 170.57 171.57 344.392 666.62 1298.792 544.839 1177.011

PCE-Price Index 2000=100

(Nation)98.504 100.38 101.222 102.413 103.934 106.172 108.217 110.039 113.254 114.137 116.046 156.481 214.1 294.326 115.596 195.822

Real Disposable Personal Income Billions of

Current Dollars123.63 127.246 130.705 133.158 139.267 146.234 150.754 145.543 147.913 149.443 147.846 220.086 311.359 441.277 187.729 317.647

Real Disposable Personal Income as

% of Nation

Percent 1.72 1.737 1.73 1.725 1.742 1.798 1.798 1.669 1.666 1.662 1.665 1.854 2.028 2.186 0.308 0.466

Population Thousands 4263.255 4417.954 4543.924 4664.294 4796.493 4944.939 5118.089 5181.401 5251.195 5316.439 5383.54 6306.198 7371.18 8491.856 3107.925 4228.601

Population as % of Nation Percent 1.511 1.55 1.578 1.606 1.636 1.671 1.713 1.717 1.723 1.727 1.731 1.84 1.968 2.087 0.457 0.576

Rest of Georgia Units 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030 2040 00-30

change

00-40

changeTotal Employment Thousands

(Jobs)2095.106 2076.561 2080.76 2117.206 2166.698 2228.587 2275.75 2329.047 2336.821 2273.672 2211.461 2253.792 2294.376 2469.626 158.686 374.520

Total Employment as % of Nation Percent 1.256 1.243 1.249 1.264 1.271 1.28 1.276 1.275 1.273 1.27 1.264 1.211 1.167 1.148 -0.045 -0.108

Private Non-Farm Employment Thousands

(Jobs)1629.496 1611.476 1609.076 1639.732 1687.324 1741.785 1786.877 1836.17 1836.61 1779.877 1729.784 1794.213 1854.049 2036.086 164.717 406.590

Private Non-Farm Employment as

% of Nation

Percent 1.158 1.145 1.149 1.164 1.173 1.182 1.18 1.18 1.175 1.171 1.167 1.123 1.087 1.08 -0.035 -0.078

Gross Domestic Product Billions of

Fixed (2000)

Dollars

91.041 90.037 92.445 95.27 98.855 102.986 105.294 108.67 110.422 107.768 106.698 139.2 174.674 225.835 48.159 134.794

Personal Income Billions of

Current Dollars88.649 92.732 95.252 98.008 103.049 109.268 114.845 121.672 127.303 129.846 129.715 227.147 388.966 691.085 138.498 602.436

Personal Income as % of Nation Percent 1.053 1.064 1.074 1.071 1.061 1.062 1.047 1.036 1.036 1.038 1.037 1.007 0.972 0.953 -0.046 -0.100

Disposable Personal Income Billions of

Current Dollars76.183 80.094 84.179 87.472 92.184 97.036 101.281 106.78 112.575 115.656 116.252 203.72 348.749 619.318 127.537 543.135

PCE-Price Index 2000=100

(Nation)100.959 102.697 103.549 104.838 106.951 109.297 111.422 113.815 117.69 118.928 121.155 163.435 223.155 306.077 62.476 205.118

Real Disposable Personal Income Billions of

Current Dollars75.46 77.99 81.294 83.435 86.193 88.782 90.899 93.818 95.653 97.249 95.954 124.649 156.281 202.341 49.189 126.881

Real Disposable Personal Income as

% of Nation

Percent 1.05 1.064 1.076 1.081 1.078 1.091 1.084 1.076 1.077 1.081 1.081 1.05 1.018 1.002 0.000 -0.048

Population Thousands 3967.665 4004.172 4047.244 4075.714 4124.878 4162.779 4223.991 4253.393 4291.981 4319.931 4348.109 4729.576 4991.531 5220.215 761.911 1252.550

Population as % of Nation Percent 1.406 1.404 1.406 1.403 1.407 1.407 1.414 1.41 1.408 1.403 1.398 1.38 1.332 1.283 -0.026 -0.123

GDP ADJUSTMENT

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

220

225

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Mil

lio

ns

National Total Employment

Nat'l alternate control Nat'l standard control

EMPLOYMENT COMPAREDStandard Control 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030 2040

00-08 change

08-20 change

20-30 change

30-40 change

00-30 change

00-40 change

Ann Avg. Chg 2007-

40


5.771 5.847 7.143 7.357 7.425 7.27 7.265 7.171 6.768 6.318 1.654 -0.254 -0.403 -0.450 0.997 0.547 -0.026

Mining 3.556 2.687 3.01 3.105 3.171 2.981 2.958 2.563 1.676 0.748 -0.385 -0.608 -0.887 -0.928 -1.880 -2.808 -0.059

Utilities 11.785 11.573 11.675 11.927 11.887 11.782 11.681 11.704 11.777 11.861 0.102 -0.183 0.073 0.084 -0.008 0.076 -0.002

Construction 180.091 198.293 210.129 201.218 192.123 180.818 175.819 199.397 206.067 220.847 12.032 7.274 6.670 14.780 25.976 40.756 0.491

Manufacturing 223.66 194.722 196.314 190.564 181.733 169.168 169.548 164.124 170.811 200.316 -41.927 -17.609 6.687 29.505 -52.849 -23.344 0.244

Wholesale Trade 171.853 167.545 168.687 173.16 170.429 165.213 168.337 171.084 154.758 137.051 -1.424 0.655 -16.326 -17.707 -17.095 -34.802 -0.903

Retail Trade 304.866 309.406 320.082 332.553 325.627 316.565 317.364 339.543 359.838 402.871 20.761 13.916 20.295 43.033 54.972 98.005 1.758


128.348 129.484 133.647 139.319 141.631 140.926 142.951 168.091 191.433 217.173 13.283 26.460 23.342 25.740 63.085 88.825 1.946

Information 120.002 101.965 103.519 104.685 103.16 100.441 99.737 104.497 99.157 95.396 -16.842 1.337 -5.340 -3.761 -20.845 -24.606 -0.232

Finance and Insurance 144.664 147.324 152.651 156.395 155.81 155.511 155.336 184.935 201.117 221.711 11.146 29.125 16.182 20.594 56.453 77.047 1.633


102.735 153.214 167.617 173.436 175.483 177.495 179.487 217.605 256.899 310.177 72.748 42.122 39.294 53.278 154.164 207.442 3.419

Alternate Control 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030 204000-08

change08-20

change20-30

change30-40

change00-30

change00-40

change

Ann Avg. Chg 2007-

40


5.771 5.847 7.143 3.795 3.849 3.649 3.246 4.194 5.191 5.873 -1.922 0.345 0.997 0.682 -0.580 0.102 0.052

Mining 3.556 2.687 3.01 1.395 1.427 1.225 0.959 1.128 0.949 0.628 -2.129 -0.299 -0.179 -0.321 -2.607 -2.928 -0.019

Utilities 11.785 11.573 11.675 10.75 10.767 10.473 10.118 10.258 10.71 11.165 -1.018 -0.509 0.452 0.455 -1.075 -0.620 0.010

Construction 180.091 198.293 210.129 176.757 162.668 145.269 135.912 173.819 194.326 216.917 -17.423 11.151 20.507 22.591 14.235 36.826 1.004

Manufacturing 223.66 194.722 196.314 180.459 172.213 158.492 151.243 153.351 162.2 190.716 -51.447 -18.862 8.849 28.516 -61.460 -32.944 0.256

Wholesale Trade 171.853 167.545 168.687 160.797 159.637 152.629 151.712 157.369 145.652 131.929 -12.216 -2.268 -11.717 -13.723 -26.201 -39.924 -0.722

Retail Trade 304.866 309.406 320.082 305.752 301.922 287.866 282.295 303.802 331.054 381.516 -2.944 1.880 27.252 50.462 26.188 76.650 1.894


128.348 129.484 133.647 150.91 154.141 151.834 149.854 172.295 190.059 209.486 25.793 18.154 17.764 19.427 61.711 81.138 1.464

Information 120.002 101.965 103.519 100.246 99.717 95.732 93.018 98.071 94.297 91.768 -20.285 -1.646 -3.774 -2.529 -25.705 -28.234 -0.212

Finance and Insurance 144.664 147.324 152.651 130.585 132.244 130.241 127.56 163.51 187.851 215.408 -12.420 31.266 24.341 27.557 43.187 70.744 2.121


102.735 153.214 167.617 132.195 135.443 134.772 133.193 177.747 231.326 297.987 32.708 42.304 53.579 66.661 128.591 195.252 4.145

EMPLOYMENT COMPAREDStandard Control 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030 2040

00-08 change

09-20 change

20-30 change

30-40 change

00-30 change

00-40 change

Ann Avg. Chg

2007-40

Professional and Technical Services

224.285 235.208 246.828 258.975 263.802 264.507 269.471 358.387 433.98 505.876 39.517 94.585 75.593 71.896 209.695 281.591 6.173


47.49 42.066 41.419 43.55 44.164 43.695 44.639 51.672 53.788 52.309 -3.326 7.508 2.116 -1.479 6.298 4.819 0.219


227.652 253.293 257.68 269.724 274.18 276.074 279.951 345.492 383.48 410.34 46.528 71.312 37.988 26.860 155.828 182.688 3.515

Educational Services 48.434 60.17 63.366 66.088 67.624 69.105 69.746 87.931 104.876 125.162 19.190 20.307 16.945 20.286 56.442 76.728 1.477Health Care and Social Assistance 192.348 227.392 234.899 245.762 249.385 254.732 256.265 328.696 405.948 521.334 57.037 79.311 77.252 115.386 213.600 328.986 6.889


46.536 53.442 55.8 58.286 59.3 60.162 60.843 76.938 92.507 112.026 12.764 17.638 15.569 19.519 45.971 65.490 1.344


180.348 206.52 213.815 225.907 230.932 233.143 236.458 270.644 288.568 312.477 50.584 39.712 17.924 23.909 108.220 132.129 2.164


135.991 164.657 170.468 176.873 178.246 179.617 180.48 215.027 250.982 301.253 42.255 36.781 35.955 50.271 114.991 165.262 3.110

State and Local 226.179 264.29 273.09 276.862 278.516 279.819 280.196 317.164 341.314 364.69 52.337 38.648 24.150 23.376 115.135 138.511 2.196Federal Civilian 47.659 46.326 45.766 45.711 46.361 46.852 47.458 45.071 44.123 44.208 -1.298 -1.290 -0.948 0.085 -3.536 -3.451 -0.038Federal Military 17.774 19.063 19.365 19.271 20.094 19.853 19.201 16.337 14.29 12.8 2.320 -3.757 -2.047 -1.490 -3.484 -4.974 -0.162

Alternate Control 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030 204000-08

change09-20

change20-30

change30-40

change00-30

change00-40

change

Ann Avg. Chg

2007-40Professional and Technical Services

224.285 235.208 246.828 226.493 232.554 229.186 227.775 317.469 403.634 486.521 8.269 84.915 86.165 82.887 179.349 262.236 6.501


47.49 42.066 41.419 41.234 42.206 41.292 41.064 48.606 51.254 50.415 -5.284 6.400 2.648 -0.839 3.764 2.925 0.230


227.652 253.293 257.68 236.463 242.994 241.112 239.266 308.733 358.034 395.362 15.342 65.739 49.301 37.328 130.382 167.710 3.972

Educational Services 48.434 60.17 63.366 128.538 130.272 130.432 129.477 132.801 124.496 118.984 81.838 2.529 -8.305 -5.512 76.062 70.550 -0.239Health Care and Social Assistance 192.348 227.392 234.899 227.358 233.755 234.776 231.666 298.638 376.562 496.25 41.407 64.883 77.924 119.688 184.214 303.902 6.722


46.536 53.442 55.8 50.906 52.383 52.239 51.651 66.98 83.995 105.731 5.847 14.597 17.015 21.736 37.459 59.195 1.371


180.348 206.52 213.815 211.806 218.078 216.123 214.293 242.949 264.317 293.881 37.730 24.871 21.368 29.564 83.969 113.533 2.052


135.991 164.657 170.468 157.264 160.309 158.754 155.912 191.248 232.611 288.771 24.318 30.939 41.363 56.160 96.620 152.780 3.288

State and Local 226.179 264.29 273.09 190.766 193.356 190.449 187.287 235.835 292.333 349.632 -32.823 42.479 56.498 57.299 66.154 123.453 3.972Federal Civilian 47.659 46.326 45.766 16.185 17.142 17.274 17.391 20.697 31.666 43.652 -30.517 3.555 10.969 11.986 -15.993 -4.007 0.687Federal Military 17.774 19.063 19.365 6.637 7.693 7.185 6.183 5.668 8.758 12.395 -10.081 -2.025 3.090 3.637 -9.016 -5.379 0.144

LFPR WOMEN 30-34

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

White

BLS

Standard

Alternate

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Black

BLS

Standard

Alternate

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Other

BLS

Standard

Alternate

54.056.058.060.062.064.066.068.070.072.074.076.078.080.082.084.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Hispanic

BLS

Standard

Alternate

LFPR WOMEN 35-44

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

White

BLS

Standard

Alternate

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Black

BLS

Standard

Alternate

68.0

69.0

70.0

71.0

72.0

73.0

74.0

75.0

76.0

77.0

78.0

79.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Other

BLS

Standard

Alternate

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Hispanic

BLS

Standard

Alternate

LFPR WOMEN 45-54

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

White

BLS

Standard

Alternate

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Black

BLS

Standard

Alternate

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Other

BLS

Standard

Alternate

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Hispanic

BLS

Standard

Alternate

LFPR WOMEN 55-59

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

White

BLS

Standard

Alternate

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Black

BLS

Standard

Alternate

50.052.054.056.058.060.062.064.066.068.070.072.074.076.078.080.082.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Other

BLS

Standard

Alternate

56.057.058.059.060.061.062.063.064.065.066.067.068.069.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Hispanic

BLS

Standard

Alternate

LFPR MEN 30-34

91.0

92.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

White

BLS

Standard

Alternate

76.077.078.079.080.081.082.083.084.085.086.087.088.089.090.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Black

BLS

Standard

Alternate

83.084.085.086.087.088.089.090.091.092.093.094.095.096.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Other

BLS

Standard

Alternate

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Hispanic

BLS

Standard

Alternate

LFPR MEN 35-44

85.0

86.0

87.0

88.0

89.0

90.0

91.0

92.0

93.0

94.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

White

BLS

Standard

Alternate

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Black

BLS

Standard

Alternate

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Other

BLS

Standard

Alternate

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Hispanic

BLS

Standard

Alternate

LFPR MEN 45-54

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

86.0

87.0

88.0

89.0

90.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

White

BLS

Standard

Alternate

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Black

BLS

Standard

Alternate

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Other

BLS

Standard

Alternate

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Hispanic

BLS

Standard

Alternate

LFPR MEN 55-59

70.0

71.0

72.0

73.0

74.0

75.0

76.0

77.0

78.0

79.0

80.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

White

BLS

Standard

Alternate

50.052.054.056.058.060.062.064.066.068.070.072.074.076.078.080.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Black

BLS

Standard

Alternate

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Other

BLS

Standard

Alternate

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

Hispanic

BLS

Standard

Alternate

PRODUCTIVITY AT A GLANCE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Bil

lio

ns

Components of Income

Gross Domestic Product (Fixed 2000$) Personal Income (Fixed 2000$)

Disposable Personal Income (Fixed 2000$) PCE-Price Index

SECTOR CHANGE 2007-2040

Health Care

Professional Svcs

Admin & Waste Svcs

Retail Trade

Real Estate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00

s)

Health Care

Professional

SvcsAdmin & Waste

SvcsRetail Trade

Real Estate

Accom & Food

SvcsOther Svcs

Constr

Finance & Ins

Transp & Whse

Mfg

Whlse Trade

Educ Services

Arts

Information

Mgmt of Co &

EntprUtilities

Forestry

Top 5 Sectors by Rank

2007 20401. Retail Trade 1. Health Svcs

2. Admin & Waste 2. Prof & Tech

3. Health Svcs 3. Admin & Waste

4. Prof & Tech 4. Retail Trade

5. Accom & Food Svc s 5. Real Estate

SECTOR CHANGE 2007-2040

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Em

plo

ym

en

t (

00

0s)

Forestry Mining Utilities Constr Mfg Whlse Tr Retail Tr

Transp Info Finance Real Estate Prof and Tech Mgmt of Co Admin Svcs

Educ Svcs Health Care Arts Accom & Food Other Services

SECTOR ANNUAL CHG 2007-2040

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Health Care

Professional Svcs

Real Estate

Admin & Waste Svcs

Other Svcs

Finance & Ins

Accom & Food Svcs

Retail Trade

Transp & Whse

Arts

Constr

Mfg

Mgmt of Co & Entpr

Forestry

Utilities

Mining

Information

Educ Services

Whlse Trade

Top 5 Sectors Avg. Ann. Chg

1. Health Care : 8,148

2. Prof. Services : 7,880

3. Real Estate : 5,024

4: Admin & Waste : 4,815

5. Other Services : 3,985

Ann Avg. Chg Ranking

Sector Share Change 2007-2040

Health Care

Prof Svcs

Admin & Waste Svcs

Retail Trade

Real Estate

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

An

nu

al c

han

ge

Health Care

Prof Svcs

Admin & Waste SvcsRetail Trade

Real Estate

Accom & Food SvcsOther Svcs

Constr

Finance & Ins

Transp & Whse

Mfg

Whlse Trade

Educ Services

Arts

Information

Mgmt of Co & EntprUtilities

Forestry

Top 5 Sectors by Rank2007 2040

1. Retail Trade 1. Health Svcs2. Admin & Waste 2. Prof & Tech3. Health Svcs 3. Admin & Waste4. Prof & Tech 4. Retail Trade5. Accom & Food Svc s 5. Real Estate

Labor Force Participation

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Rates by Race and Ethnicity

White-NonHispanic Black-NonHispanic Other-NonHispanic Hispanic

Labor Force Participation

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Rates by Gender

Males Females

PARTICIPATION RATES

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

All Races by Age

Ages 16-19 Ages 20-24 Ages 25-29

PARTICIPATION RATES

0.7

0.725

0.75

0.775

0.8

0.825

0.85

0.875

0.9

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

All Races by Age

Ages 30-34 Ages 35-44 Ages 45-54 Ages 55-59

PARTICIPATION RATES

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

All Races by Age

Ages 60-64 Ages 65-69 Ages 70-74 Ages 75+


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

pe

r 1

,00

0 w

om

en

Age 15-19

OASIS

REMI adj

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

pe

r 1

,00

0 w

om

en

Age 20-24

OASIS

REMI adj


0

50

100

150

200

250

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

pe

r 1

,00

0 w

om

en

Age 25-29

OASIS

REMI adj

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

pe

r 1

,00

0 w

om

en

Age 30-34

OASIS

REMI adj


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

pe

r 1

,00

0 w

om

en

Age 35-39

OASIS

REMI adj

0

5

10

15

20

25

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

pe

r 1

,00

0 w

om

en

Age 40-44

OASIS

REMI adj

OTHER METRO AREAS’ INDUSTRY MIX

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Atlanta Chicago Dallas Denver

Location Quotient - January 2009 (preliminary)

Manu.

TTU

Wholesale

Retail

Info

Fin

Pro/Bus

Edu/Health

Leisure

LABOR FORCE

Focusing on adjusting cohort-specific labor force

participation rates

• Collected current forecasts from BLS by race, age and gender

Analysis indicated BLS rates were significantly higher than

model rates

Labor force participation rates were adjusted for each race

and gender, ages 30-59 cohorts

Adjusting these rates revealed a more reasonable baseline

and forecast for each module (econometric and demographic) in

the REMI model

As seen in previous slides, future scenarios were adjusted

based on these findings

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

White Non-Hispanic

Males

BLS Males

Females

BLS Females

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

Black Non-Hispanic

Males

Females

BLS Males

BLS Females

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

Other Non-Hispanic

Males

Females

BLS Males

BLS Females

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

Hispanic

Males

Females

BLS Males

BLS Females

HISPANIC COMPOSITION

TAC suggested a reduction of Hispanic immigration and

fertility rates

• Data collection for Hispanic immigration and birth rates was

undertaken

Data sources on immigration derived from the REMI model

Data sources on fertility retrieved with the GA DHR OASIS

query tool

• Sources show immigration slightly decreased through

calibration process and implementing developed policy variables

Still need further evaluation

• GA DHR confirmed the data within the model equates to

actual data


-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

26

30

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Migration



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Demographic change

Natural change Migrants Births Deaths

Documents

Implementing REMI at the ARC MPO Modeling Webinar … 85,671 85,671 85,671 85,671 2000-06: 56,343 56,343 56,343 56,343 2007 20: 41,344 13,336 14,371 14,200