ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Israel: an expertassessment approach

Marcelo Sternberg • Ofri Gabay • Dror Angel • Orit Barneah • Sarig Gafny •

Avital Gasith • Jose M. Grunzweig • Yaron Hershkovitz • Alvaro Israel •

Dana Milstein • Gil Rilov • Yosef Steinberger • Tamar Zohary

Received: 23 April 2014 / Accepted: 5 August 2014

� Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Abstract The Mediterranean region is both a global

biodiversity hot spot and one of the biomes most strongly

affected by human activities. Ecologists and land managers

are increasingly required to advise on threats to biodiver-

sity under foreseeable climate change. We used expert

surveys to evaluate current understanding and uncertainties

regarding climate change impacts on biodiversity in ter-

restrial, inland freshwater, and marine ecosystems of Israel.

Finally, we propose a response strategy toward minimizing

these changes. The surveys and the published literature

indicated that the main climate change impacts in Israel

include ongoing deterioration of freshwater habitats,

decline of shrubland and woodland areas, and increased

frequency and severity of forest fires. For the Mediterra-

nean Sea, the surveys predict further introduction and

establishment of invasive species from the Red Sea,

accelerated erosion of coastal rocky habitat, and collapse of

coastal rocky platforms. In the Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea,

corals may be resilient to foreseen climate change due to

their high tolerance for rising water temperatures. Despite

these predictions, science-based knowledge regarding the

contribution of management toward minimizing climate

change impacts on biodiversity is still lacking. Habitat loss,

degradation, and fragmentation are presently the primary

and immediate threats to natural ecosystems in Israel.

Protection of natural ecosystems, including local refugia,

must be intensified to maintain existing biodiversity under

pressure from mounting urban development and climate

Editor: Wolfgang Cramer.

Electronic supplementary material The online version of thisarticle (doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0675-z) contains supplementarymaterial, which is available to authorized users.

M. Sternberg (&) � O. Gabay

Department of Molecular Biology and Ecology of Plants,

Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, 69978 Tel Aviv,

Israel

e-mail: marcelos@tauex.tau.ac.il

D. Angel

Department of Maritime Civilizations, Leon Charney School

of Marine Sciences, Haifa University, Haifa, Israel

O. Barneah � S. Gafny

School of Marine Sciences, Ruppin Academic Center,

Emek Hefer, Israel

A. Gasith � Y. Hershkovitz

Department of Zoology, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel

J. M. Grunzweig

Institute for Plant Sciences and Genetics in Agriculture, Robert

H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment,

Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

A. Israel � G. Rilov

National Institute of Oceanography, Israel Oceanographic and

Limnological Research, Haifa, Israel

D. Milstein

Science Division, Nature and Parks Authority, Jerusalem, Israel

Y. Steinberger

Mina and Edward Goodman Faculty of Life Sciences, Bar-Ilan

University, Ramat Gan, Israel

T. Zohary

Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic and

Limnological Research, Migdal, Israel

123

Reg Environ Change

DOI 10.1007/s10113-014-0675-z

change. This protection policy should include ecological

corridors to minimize the consequences of fragmentation

of existing natural habitats for species survival. A longer-

term strategy should mandate connectivity across envi-

ronmental and climatic gradients to maintain natural

resilience by allowing reorganization of natural ecosystems

facing climate change.

Keywords Adaptation � Connectivity � Freshwater

ecosystems � Marine ecosystems � Protected corridors �Terrestrial ecosystems

Introduction

Climate change affects ecosystems globally, altering habitat

structure and environmental conditions that influence phe-

nology, species composition, and range shifts (Chen et al.

2011). Moreover, man-made environmental degradation

causes habitat fragmentation and loss. In the foreseeable

future, the combined effects of the above factors may lead

to species extinctions and exacerbate biodiversity decline

(Brook et al. 2008; Butchart et al. 2010). Consequently,

there is a growing need for assessing species resistance and

resilience and identifying vulnerability indicators to facili-

tate the development of effective conservation measures

(Lawler 2009). One of the recommendations of the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN-

FCCC—http://unfccc.int) is to formulate national policy

measures to minimize the damage caused by climate change

or to adapt to it. Most of the world’s developed countries

have prepared adaptation action plans for climate change,

including response strategies for a range of issues, such as

protection of biodiversity and functioning of natural eco-

systems (Preston et al. 2011).

In order to formulate a response to climate change, it is

first necessary to evaluate the expected impacts. Although

the number of studies examining the expected impacts of

climate change has increased in the last decade (Cook et al.

2013), very few of these studies were conducted in Israel

(Sternberg et al. 2011; Talmon et al. 2011; Golodets et al.

2013; Ostrovsky et al. 2013), and the Levant region has

rarely been included in models assessing climate change

impacts in the Mediterranean. Due to the paucity of sci-

ence-based knowledge about the effects of climate change

on natural ecosystems in Israel, it is difficult to evaluate its

impacts on biodiversity and even more challenging to

develop a response plan.

In this study, we used expert surveys and opinions to

evaluate and review possible climate change impacts on

biodiversity in Israel, and to plan a response strategy for

adaptation to these changes. Here, we considered for the

first time the three most important ecosystems in the

region: terrestrial, inland freshwater, and marine ecosys-

tems (Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea).

Methods

Expert opinion is a means by which complex environ-

mental problems can be evaluated, particularly when

empirical data are missing (McBride and Burgman 2012).

In this study, we used a version of the Delphi method,

which can be applied when empirical information is

lacking, uncertainty is high, and the only way of obtaining

information is by experience-based assumptions (Adler

and Ziglio 1996). The method is based on a combination

of expert working groups and expert surveys. The expert

working groups formulated questionnaires for each eco-

system type (terrestrial, inland freshwater, and marine),

targeted to experienced ecologists with specific ecosystem

knowledge of climate change impacts on biodiversity. The

questionnaires were distributed to a variety of experts

from various organizations in Israel (academia, research

institutes, governmental authorities, and non-governmental

environmental organizations). The experts were asked to

quantitatively estimate the severity of climate change

impacts on biodiversity, to grade the efficiency of differ-

ent measures for adaptation and/or mitigation of climate

change impacts (on a scale of 1 to 5), and to express their

opinion verbally. After the surveys were returned, the

working groups processed the data and searched for

meaningful trends. The assessment was conducted by

three expert teams: one for terrestrial ecosystems

(including natural and extensively grazed ecosystems, and

planted forests), one for inland freshwater ecosystems

(rivers, seasonal water bodies, springs, and Lake Kinneret

- Sea of Galilee), and one for marine ecosystems (Red Sea

and Mediterranean Sea). Each team developed a specific

survey format and evaluated the results for their own

survey.

The climate scenarios considered in this study were

developed by the ICCIC steering committee on climate.

Despite differences in predictions by different climatic

models, there was a general agreement on the continuing

trend of warming in the coming decades at an average rate

of 0.4–0.8 �C per decade, depending on region and season.

In addition, in most regions of Israel, the amount of rainfall

is expected to decrease, though this trend is generally not

statistically significant. Moreover, Ziv et al. (2014) antic-

ipate an increase in the frequency of extreme weather

events including severe drought years, floods, and periods

of intense heat, as well as a steady rise in sea-level and

seawater temperature.

Forty-five experts answered the survey questionnaire in

its entirety and 58 experts claimed that they do not know

M. Sternberg et al.

123

enough about climate change and its impacts and therefore

they did not answer the questionnaire. Fourteen of these 58

experts provided a written or oral opinion that was recor-

ded. We attribute the relatively large proportion of experts

that did not answer the questionnaire to the substantial

knowledge gaps in this field that should be addressed in the

future. Thus, the evaluations used in this study include the

45 filled questionnaires and the 14 expert opinions (59

experts in total) and the contributions of the three working

groups. Each expert emphasized the primary impacts of

climate change in the ecosystems with which they were

most familiar. The summary of the main effects of climate

change on natural ecosystems and their biodiversity, as

assessed by the experts, is presented below.

Results and discussion

Climate change encompasses interactions between numer-

ous factors (including temperature, amount and distribution

of rainfall, and winds). Each variable may affect biodi-

versity differently in each ecosystem. Most experts indi-

cated temperature and reduced rainfall as the variables with

greatest effect on biodiversity (Fig. 1). Changes in the

rainfall regime (timing, intensity, duration) were also

considered significant, particularly for inland freshwater

ecosystems, and less so for marine ecosystems.

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity in terrestrial

ecosystems

One clear impact of reduced total rainfall is the desic-

cation and mortality of shrubs and trees. In the last

decade, characterized by a high frequency of drought

years, this phenomenon was observed in many regions

throughout Israel (Dorman et al. 2013; Siegal et al.

2013). There is a long-held assumption that the flora and

fauna of a region are adapted to conditions of climatic

uncertainty; however, in the dry desert region, where

physical conditions are extremely severe, any further

decrease in the amount and frequency of rainfall may

lead to desiccation of woody plants. In the sub-humid

Mediterranean region, desiccation of oaks is a cyclical

phenomenon that occurs after consecutive drought years

(Sever and Ne’eman 2008). In ‘‘normal’’ years, major

desiccation is not a real threat and is not expected to

cause long-term damage to the oak populations. How-

ever, increased frequency of consecutive drought years

due to climate change may amplify this phenomenon and

seriously threaten the oak populations and the Mediter-

ranean woodland (Carnicer et al. 2011; Vicente-Serrano

et al. 2012). Desiccation-induced mortality of woody

plants may affect functioning of the entire ecosystem and

provision of ecosystem services, including the water

regime, pest and air quality regulation, soil erosion,

primary productivity, carbon sequestration, and nutrient

cycling (Anderegg et al. 2013).

An additional important impact of climate change is the

increased risk of fire in Mediterranean regions, due to an

increase in the number and length of dry periods (Mori-

ondo et al. 2006). Although fires may increase herbaceous

plant species diversity (Delitti et al. 2005), repeated fires

may dramatically change the structure of the plant com-

munity and the ecosystem. Therefore, the combination of

climate-driven drought and fire may lead to a marked

change in biodiversity within a few decades (Colombaroli

et al. 2007).

Climate change, in particular rising temperatures, may

affect the timing of life cycle events (phenology) of various

organisms. In Israel, phenological changes were observed

mainly in relation to bird migration (Sapir et al. 2011;

Zduniak et al. 2010). Although these changes were asso-

ciated with increasing temperature, it is possible that cli-

mate change is not the only factor affecting bird migration.

Other factors such as land-use change, which affects food

availability, may also affect birds, and it is difficult to

evaluate the relative contribution of each factor to changes

in the timing of migration.

Fig. 1 Level of agreement regarding climate change impacts on

biodiversity in Israel. X-axis: various climatic factors affecting

biodiversity. Y-axis: percentage of experts that ranked the severity

of their impact as significant (light gray) or very significant (dark

gray), based on the expert opinions on three different systems:

terrestrial ecosystems (21 questionnaires), freshwater ecosystems (7),

and marine ecosystems (17)

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity

123

The experts that participated in this study anticipate that

some species will probably be able to adapt to the new

environmental conditions and continue to survive in the

same geographical regions that they occupy today. Species

without this ability may migrate to regions with more

suitable conditions or alternatively they may become

extinct. In parallel, there is the possibility of introduction of

new species to regions in which they could not survive

previously. As a result, there may be an adjustment of the

spatial distributions of animals in a north to northwest

direction (‘‘northward migration’’), and ‘‘movement’’ of

the transition zone between the desert and the Mediterra-

nean region of Israel. In addition, changes in the structure

of plant and animal communities, and in the structure and

function of ecosystems, may occur in many locations

throughout Israel as also suggested by Steinitz (2010). A

change in species distribution is highly dependent on the

continuity of open landscapes and protected ecological

corridors through which these species pass, and different

elements (built-up areas, transportation and communication

infrastructures, and agricultural systems) may block the

movement of these species northwards or to higher alti-

tudes. Therefore, many species may not be able to adjust

their distribution range, and if they cannot adapt to the new

environmental conditions, they will simply disappear.

Since climate change impacts are specific to species or

groups of species, and vary greatly among organisms, it is

difficult to predict climate change impacts on groups of

animal and plant communities without greater knowledge

of their physiological tolerance limits and interactions with

other species (e.g., Lavergne et al. 2010).

The regions identified by the experts as the most sus-

ceptible to climate change impacts in Israel are the tran-

sition zones between the desert and the Mediterranean

climates, because they are rich in species and constitute the

distribution limit of many species, which may disappear

due to climate change (see also Pe’er and Safriel 2000).

Paleoenvironmental studies support this idea as they have

shown that the northern Negev region (i.e., ecotone

between Mediterranean and desert ecosystems) experi-

enced major biotic changes during the Holocene period

(Goodfriend 1988). Furthermore, Ziv et al. (2014) indicate

that this ecotone experiences considerable rainfall fluctu-

ations, which increases its sensitivity to potential biodi-

versity changes.

The consequences of climate change impacts

for biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems

Israel’s freshwater ecosystems have been severely impac-

ted by urban and agricultural development, causing habitat

destruction and massive pollution (mostly by domestic and

industrial wastes), and by diversion of water for human use

(mostly for agriculture; Maruani and Amit-Cohen 2009).

These activities have jointly led to considerable habitat and

biodiversity loss. Climate change is mostly expected to

affect water temperature and hydrology, but under the

multiple-pressures state of most aquatic systems in Israel, it

is difficult to associate the change in biodiversity with one

particular stressor. Climate change in the Levant is

expected to reduce the number of rainfall events but sig-

nificantly increase rainfall intensity (Ziv et al. 2014),

leading to increased runoff and frequency of flood events,

thereby reducing overall infiltration. Moreover, both spring

flow and recharge of underground aquifers are expected to

decline (Samuels et al. 2009). Reduction in groundwater

availability will increase competition over water sources

for human use, directly by diverting water from nature, and

indirectly by limiting potential artificial allocation of water

to nature where needed. This will probably lead to further

deterioration of habitat conditions and to the loss of aquatic

biodiversity (Dudgeon et al. 2006; Palmer et al. 2009). In

addition, changes in the rainfall regime combined with

higher temperatures and increased evaporation could lead

to an increase in concentration of ions and nutrients (e.g.,

nitrogen and phosphorus) in freshwater bodies and subse-

quently increased salinity as well as eutrophication and,

thus, deterioration in water and topsoil quality.

The experts those were interviewed predicted that

environmental changes associated with climate change are

expected to have major ecological effects (described

below) on lentic systems, particularly temporary aquatic

habitats such as rain pools. Shortened hydroperiod (i.e., the

period when surface water exists), resulting from

decreased precipitation, is predicted to directly affect

locally rare amphibians such as the Eastern spadefoot toad

(Pelobates syriacus), and crustaceans such as the tadpole

shrimp (Lepidurus), which may not be able to complete

metamorphosis, and their populations will decline. In the

case of P. syriacus, the environmental changes are antic-

ipated to cause migration of this southern distributed

species toward more northern and mesic habitats (Gafny

2004). Moreover, perennial streams are expected to shrink,

lotic habitats will be reduced, and stream connectivity may

be lost. Isolated pools will form in the stream channel,

leading to congregation of surviving organisms that are

forced to interact (e.g., increased predator–prey interac-

tions, as described by Hershkovitz and Gasith 2013).

Species with high habitat specificity will disappear and be

replaced by more tolerant species, native or invasive (e.g.,

Hershkovitz and Gasith 2013). Because many Mediterra-

nean-climate aquatic species move to refugia in order to

maintain their populations during extreme conditions (e.g.,

Beche et al. 2009), the possible destruction of these refugia

by human activity will intensify the ecological stress on

aquatic communities.

M. Sternberg et al.

123

Habitats with particular sensitivity to local fluctuations

in the amount and quality of water are seasonal water

bodies (e.g., winter pools), springs fed from shallow

aquifers, with low water flow, and shallow wetland areas.

A reduction in the amount of water coupled with increased

evaporation will shorten the lifetime (hydroperiod) of

seasonal pools and may even preclude their existence (e.g.,

Zacharias and Zamparas 2010). The experts suggested that

a shortened lifetime of seasonal water bodies will make it

difficult for organisms from various groups (e.g., amphib-

ians and lower crustaceans) to complete their life cycles.

Additionally, an increase in temperature is expected to

accelerate the life cycle for some species, and as a result,

the adult individuals of these species may be small and less

ecologically resilient.

An increase in the frequency and intensity of strong rain

storms and floods is expected to increase erosion in both

perennial and intermittent rivers. We estimate that the main

problem will be in rivers with a regulated (i.e., manipulated)

river course (straightened and/or lined with concrete).

Although floods occur naturally in Mediterranean ecosys-

tems (Gasith and Resh 1999), in cases where rivers have lost

their natural structural complexity, ecosystem recovery

from such disturbances will be difficult. In addition, it is

anticipated that increased flood intensity will increase the

frequency of inundation and soil erosion, followed by

greater pressure on drainage authorities to ‘‘regulate’’ riv-

ers, leading to further deterioration of the river ecosystems.

In Lake Kinneret, extreme meteorological conditions such

as long periods of drought and strong flash floods will increase

the rate of change and amplitude of water-level fluctuations

(Zohary and Ostrovsky 2011). This amplitude is already four

times greater than the natural range, due to excessive pumping

for drinking and irrigation in low-rainfall years (Zohary and

Ostrovsky 2011), although the national water desalinization

plan may reduce this pressure in the future.

The climate change experts indicated that an increase in

the range of water-level fluctuations impacts first and

foremost on the near-shore littoral zone. In this zone, it

affects the physical nature of the bottom substrate from

being boulder-dominated at high water levels, to being

sand- and mud-dominated at low levels (e.g., Gasith and

Gafny 1990). Furthermore, the amount of riparian vegeta-

tion changes dramatically with water levels; much of the

shore vegetation is inundated at high water levels and

functions as emergent macrophytes, whereas at low water

levels, the littoral zone is devoid of macrophytes (see

Zohary and Gasith 2014). The seasonal and multi-annual

changes in the structure of and conditions in the littoral

zone affect the littoral community by changing the avail-

ability of spawning, sheltering, and feeding grounds for fish

(e.g., Zohary and Gasith 2014). One example is the bleak, a

common, endemic cyprinid fish in Lake Kinneret, which

spawns on freshly inundated rocks in shallow water (Gafny

et al. 1992). The reproductive success of this fish is directly

influenced by the water level that determines the avail-

ability of suitable spawning sites (Gafny et al. 1992).

Water-level fluctuations also affect nutrient cycling in the

lake by impacting internal processes and may thereby

contribute to increased eutrophication (see Zohary and

Ostrovsky 2011).

Extreme changes to environmental conditions in eco-

systems can also lead to the disappearance of native species

and the appearance and domination by invasive species. For

example, since the mid-1990s, the alga Peridinium gatun-

ense formed a typical spring bloom each year in Lake

Kinneret, but it now blooms only during wet years (Zohary

2004). Over the same period, the lake was invaded by two

species of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria from the Nosto-

cales group, which in the past was poorly represented in

Lake Kinneret. The two invasive species appear every

summer and, in some years, form a massive summer bloom,

the likes of which were never observed in Lake Kinneret in

the past. One of these invasive species produces toxins that

have a detrimental effect on drinking water quality. As a

general rule, cyanobacteria have an advantage at high

temperatures (e.g., Robarts and Zohary 1987), and it is

reasonable to assume that they will proliferate temporally

with global warming. Another example is the invasive snail

Pseudoplotia scabra (Thiara), originating in eastern Asia,

which is commonly bred in aquaria. This species probably

reached Lake Kinneret during the mid-2000s, when native

snail abundance in the lake was at an all-time low. During

2009–2010, P. scabra dominated the benthos of the entire

lake, and currently, it comprises 95 % of the snail fauna

(Heller et al. 2014). One of the three major native snail

species, Melanoides tuberculata, which was the dominant

species in sandy beaches in the past, has almost completely

disappeared (Heller et al. 2014).

Protection of freshwater ecosystems requires, first and

foremost, a secure and permanent water source, ensuring

the appropriate quantity and quality of water for each

habitat, as described in the policy statement document

‘‘The right of nature to water’’ (Shacham 2003). Similarly,

protection of refuge areas in places where they still exist, or

creation of such areas where they are not currently avail-

able, will facilitate the conservation of biodiversity in areas

expected to suffer from climate change.

Effects of climate change on biodiversity in marine

ecosystems

The Mediterranean Sea

Climate change may have multiple effects on marine sys-

tems (Harley et al. 2006), and together with anthropogenic

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity

123

disturbances, it constitutes the most severe threat to bio-

diversity in the Mediterranean Sea (Coll et al. 2010).

According to a European Commission report from almost a

decade ago, there was a substantial increase in mean sea

surface temperature (SST) in the Mediterranean, with the

greatest change in the eastern Mediterranean (2.2–2.6 �C

between 1982 and 2003, Gelabert 2007). Furthermore, two

major heat waves in Europe caused mass mortalities in 25

rocky benthic macro-invertebrate species (mainly seden-

tary gorgonians and sponges) in the northwestern Medi-

terranean region (Garrabou et al. 2009) indicating the

potential devastating effects of ocean warming. A 33-year

dataset of SST in the offshore waters of Israel indicates an

even larger increase of 3.3 degrees (Gertman and Goldman

2014). These values are very high in a region that normally

experiences the most extreme temperatures of the Medi-

terranean Sea, thus rising temperatures may have a sub-

stantial impact on biodiversity along Israel’s coastline.

The experts those were consulted regarding the effects

of temperature rise on the marine biota agreed that it is one

of the main factors impacting the structure and composition

of Eastern Mediterranean communities. The steady

warming of Mediterranean Sea waters is thought to have

facilitated the successful establishment of many alien

species from various warm water regions around the world

and enabled their rapid spread to the northern and western

parts of the basin (Morri et al. 2009). Dominance by many

tropical species (mostly originating from the Indo-Pacific

area) is particularly noticeable in the southern parts of the

Mediterranean Sea, where they constitute a significant

proportion of the biota (Galil 2008). The successful

establishment of tropical invasive species may cause the

subtropical Mediterranean Sea communities to lose their

unique characteristics and become more similar to tropical

communities (Bellan-Santini and Bellan 2000). Further

warming of the sea may be critical for Boreo-Atlantic

species that entered the Mediterranean Sea during ice ages

and became established in the cooler, northern parts of the

sea. Since they cannot move further north, their popula-

tions may shrink dramatically, or become extinct (Quig-

nard and Raibaut 1993). Moreover, regional models predict

that the temperature increase might squeeze endemic

Mediterranean, cold-water, species into smaller and smal-

ler ‘‘cul-de-sac’’ regions in the northern parts of the sea

(Ben Rais Lasram et al. 2009, 2010). For other Mediter-

ranean and Atlanto-Mediterranean species, the Levant

shores of Israel represent the edge of their distribution.

Some of the more thermally sensitive native species may

gradually be excluded by extreme conditions driven by

climate change in this already extreme environment simply

because peak temperatures will increase beyond their

physiological tolerance limits. Such may be the case for sea

urchins. Their populations along the Israeli shore collapsed

in the last two decades (Rilov 2013), and field and labo-

ratory experiments showed that they die at peak summer

temperatures typically now of the Israeli coast

(30–31.5 �C). In contrast, when exposed to temperatures

representative of the peak summer temperatures of the

1990s (2 �C cooler), the urchins had much higher survival

rates (Yeruham 2013).

Additional phenomena that were indicated by the

experts include disease outbreaks attributed to heat stress

(e.g., Harvell et al. 2002) and repetitive macroalgal blooms

(Israel et al. 2010). The increase in atmospheric CO2 levels

leads to seawater acidification, which may harm calcareous

phytoplankton, such as coccolithophores (Coll et al. 2010),

and other important primary producers including macro-

algae and sea grasses (Einav and Israel 2007; Israel and

Hophy 2002). The Israeli coastline includes extensive areas

of rocky substrate of limestone and sandstone as well as

biogenic structures made of shells. Seawater acidification

may accelerate the erosion of these rocky coasts and may

affect the diversity of calcareous benthic biota (snails,

oysters, corals, etc.), as well as sedentary snails that par-

ticipate in the formation of the massive shore platforms

known as vermetid reefs or abrasion platforms. The shell

clumps of the snails, Dendropoma petraeum and Vermetus

triqueter, and calcareous algae found between them con-

tribute to biogenic formations that are in dynamic equi-

librium with erosion processes under normal circumstances

(e.g., Tzur and Safriel 1978; Safriel 1974). D. petraeum

aggregations that create the biogenic rims at the edges of

the abrasion platforms (keeping seawater on the platforms

during low tide) have been continuously declining for

reasons that remain unknown (Rilov 2013). Without the

compensatory biogenic buildup by the snails, erosion of the

platforms is likely to accelerate, changing the abiotic

conditions on the platforms and increasing chances in total

collapse of these unique structures within the coming

decades.

Another aspect of climate change that the experts noted

and which may have considerable effects on coastal com-

munities is sea-level rise (e.g., Shirman 2004; Rosen et al.

2013). In the absence of monitoring data, we do not know

what effect this sea-level rise had on intertidal communi-

ties, but with the expected further increase in sea level

globally and in Israel in particular (by at least 0.5 m and

possibly much more (IPCC 2013)), we can expect to see

impacts on rocky shore community structure and biodi-

versity. New platforms will not be formed at higher shore

levels due to the almost complete absence of the reef-

building snail; thus, it is likely that much of the diversity in

this unique ecosystem will be lost. In addition, increased

severity and frequency of storms, anticipated as a result of

climate change, may severely impact ecological commu-

nities by increasing disturbance (Revell et al. 2011).

M. Sternberg et al.

123

Although the deep sea is thought to be more stable than

coastal environments, it is anticipated that deep-sea biota

might also be affected by climate change as changes

occurring close to the sea surface could be conveyed to

deep-sea benthos. Since deep-sea biota are adapted to life

in a stable environment, even slight changes in the surface

waters will probably affect species diversity and commu-

nity composition in the deep sea (e.g., Danovaro et al.

2004).

The Red Sea

The marine experts agree that an ecosystem that may be

particularly sensitive to climate change is the coral reef in

the Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea. One of the clearest impacts of

global warming is coral bleaching, arising from the loss of

algal symbionts living inside the coral tissue or loss of the

algal pigment (Berkelmans and van Oppen 2006). Coral

bleaching is known as a state of stress, which may lead to

death; however, several studies point to plasticity in the

coral–alga symbiosis and note that corals can deal with

temperature changes by shuffling between symbionts of

different genotypes that are differentiated by their resis-

tance to high temperatures (Berkelmans and van Oppen

2006). In addition, in coral reefs exposed to repeated

bleaching events, a high proportion of the corals were

associated with symbionts belonging to a specific thermally

resilient taxon (Baker et al. 2004). Furthermore, increased

acidity of the seawater adversely affects calcification rates

of corals and can even cause the dissolution of the coral

skeleton, possibly leading to further deterioration of coral

reefs (Silverman et al. 2009). A recent study in the Gulf of

Aqaba showed surprising coral resilience to increasing

temperatures. This resilience apparently results from a long

evolutionary natural selection process, whereby corals

reoccupied the Red Sea following the last ice age while

crossing thermal barriers in the southern part of the sea

(Fine et al. 2013). This study suggests that the Gulf of

Aqaba reef may become a ‘‘refuge’’ from coral bleaching,

at least in the present century. Another important com-

munity that has rarely been studied in Israel is the sub-

merged sea grass community that is also likely to be

affected by warming and by ocean acidification.

Recommendations for preparatory action for climate

change

The main hurdle to formulating a climate change adapta-

tion plan for biodiversity is that knowledge about the actual

changes that have already occurred is very limited. Simi-

larly, there are few experimental studies that can help

forecast climate change effects on species, communities,

and ecosystems in Israel. Therefore, it is difficult to for-

mulate strategies for possible modes of action. Many of the

experts we approached could not answer the questionnaire

due to this lack of knowledge. Also, among the experts

those did answer, many emphasized that their answers were

not based on solid scientific knowledge, but rather on their

long-term familiarity with the ecosystems and on intuition.

This highlights the gap in scientific knowledge and the

difficulty in predicting consequences of climate change,

let alone preparing for them.

The measures proposed by the largest number of experts

for each of the three types of ecosystems as being highly or

very highly efficient at minimizing future biodiversity loss

were the development of national policy and strategy, and

enforcement of laws that limit damage to nature (Fig. 2). In

both terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, planning of

ecological corridors and monitoring for invasive species

were considered efficient means, while in marine

Fig. 2 Level of agreement regarding the efficiency of different

measures to minimize expected impacts on biodiversity. X-axis:

different modes of action. Y-axis: percentage of experts that ranked

their efficiency as high (light gray) or very high (dark gray), based on

the expert opinions on three different systems: terrestrial ecosystems

(21 questionnaires), freshwater ecosystems (7), and marine ecosys-

tems (17)

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity

123

Table 1 Actions recommended as tools for increasing the adaptive ability of natural ecosystems to climate change, the expected benefits from

them, and government decisions or policy statements that support these actions

Recommended actions Expected benefit Relevant government decision

Education and enforcement

Improving enforcement of laws that limit

damage to open landscapes and natural values

and increased punishment for such offences

Educational activities to raise public awareness

of the damage caused by transgressing these

laws

Raising awareness of the issue through

programs run by the Ministry of Education

Protection of natural ecosystems against

different threats

Increased public awareness may facilitate

conservation and law enforcement

Laws that act to prevent, halt, or reduce

environmental pollution

Planning and building law

Protection of the coastal environment law

Changing current legislation

Advancing legislation targeted at biodiversity

conservation

Improving coordination between legal facilities

and different municipal bodies

Updating legislation related to fisheries in the

Mediterranean Sea

Changing the Protection of Native Animals Law

and the National Parks, Nature Reserves,

National Sites and Memorial Sites Law, so

that they will deal more efficiently with

invasive species. Alternatively, legislating of a

specific law regarding invasive species

Improved legal municipal measures for

conservation and management of biodiversity

The National Plan for Biodiversity in

Israel (Safriel 2010)

Conservation of open landscapes

Constructing and developing according to the

national outline plan

Enforcing illegal construction transgressions.

Preventing retrospective authorization of

construction transgressions

Essential for habitat and biodiversity

conservation and functioning

Enables maintenance of ecosystem services,

e.g., soil development and reclamation, water

quality control, soil retention and erosion

prevention, climate and air pollution control,

primary productivity, and fishing

National outline plans for national parks

and nature reserves, forests and

afforestation, and Lake Kinneret

Ecological corridors

Maintaining ecological continuity of open

landscapes according to the plan of the Nature

and Parks Authority

Enable movement of species to other regions in

the event of changes to environmental

conditions

Means to cope with fragmentation of natural

ecosystems that is unrelated to climate change

Ecological Corridors in Open Landscapes:

a tool for nature - The National Plan for

Biodiversity in Israel (Safriel 2010)

Updating landscape protection in Israel

Mapping habitats at risk of extinction, assessing

the adequacy of protection of such habitats in

nature reserves, and protection of additional

landscapes as necessary

Preventing loss of unique habitats The National Plan for Biodiversity in

Israel (Safriel 2010)

Water to nature

Allocating water to aquatic habitats according to

the policy statement ‘‘Nature’s Right to

Water’’

Rehabilitating and restoring freshwater

ecosystems according to Nature and Parks

Authority policy

Essential to prevent additional damage to

aquatic habitats and for the rehabilitation of

damaged aquatic habitats

The policy statement ‘‘Nature’s Right to

Water’’

‘‘Rehabilitation and conservation of rivers

and aquatic habitats in Israel: Nature and

Parks Authority policy’’ (Shacham 2003)

Management of river runoff to maintain natural

functioning of rivers

Conserving (or restoring) river corridors, their

flow paths, and their structural complexity

Implementing ‘‘green’’ technologies for

stabilizing river banks

Low-level development to minimize effects of

urban development on overland runoff

Changing the natural flow path of rivers and

lining their banks with concrete harms their

environmental quality and causes erosion

damage and stream blockage. Biodiversity

conservation in rivers requires them to be

considered as complete natural ecosystems

M. Sternberg et al.

123

ecosystems, the emphasis was placed on off-site conser-

vation (e.g., maintaining marine biota in botanical or

zoological gardens) and conservation and restoration of

damaged ecosystems. We note that between experts on the

same ecosystems, there was no consensus regarding the

efficiency of different actions, a fact that further highlights

the uncertainty in the scientific community.

Due to the lack of knowledge and the difficulty in pre-

dicting consequences of climate change, we need to

account for uncertainty when managing these different

Table 1 continued

Recommended actions Expected benefit Relevant government decision

Treatment of invasive species

Establishing a professional committee of

ecologists, plant protectors, and animal traders

that will define regulations for introduction of

alien species to Israel and will recommend

priorities and means for treating invasive

species that have successfully invaded and

established

Establishing an inter-ministerial committee

responsible for implementing the

recommendations of the professional

committee

Monitoring, identification of knowledge gaps.

and support for research studies required to

close these gaps

Preventing or reducing the great damage already

inflicted by invasive species on ecosystems

The National Plan for Biodiversity in

Israel (Safriel 2010)

Pest monitoring

Mapping sensitivity of plants and animals to

pests, pathogens, and parasites

Preparing a database and improving monitoring

in order to pinpoint outbreaks of pests

Expanding scientific knowledge about treatment

methods and pest control and their

implementation in the field

Preventing or reducing damage that may be

caused by changes in the distribution of pests,

pathogens, and parasites due to climate change

Broadening the scientific basis for adaptive

action

Long-term monitoring

Evaluating threshold values of different climatic

variables that may undermine the diversity of

various habitats

Research aimed at understanding possible

impacts of climate change on biodiversity and

ecosystem function and management options

for improving habitat resistance to a drier

climate, and for developing tools for

rehabilitation of damaged ecosystems

Supplementing long-term scientific knowledge

about ecosystem function, to improve the

ability for intelligent decision making on

management and policy

The National Plan for Biodiversity in

Israel (Safriel 2010)

Strengthening the role of HaMaarag (Israel’s

National Ecosystem Assessment Program) as

the planning body for biodiversity

conservation

Directing research, allocating funds for its

completion, and assimilating the results of

monitoring and research through conservation

and management actions

Extending ecological monitoring to the

Mediterranean Sea

Promoting environmental programs and

providing economic incentives to strengthen

environmental planning and biodiversity

conservation in open landscapes in Israel

Coordinating legislative, enforcement,

educational, research, and management

actions for biodiversity conservation in Israel

The National Plan for Biodiversity in

Israel (Safriel 2010)

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity

123

ecosystems. We must take actions that, based on the best

scientific evidence available, will have a positive effect on

biodiversity at any scale, rate, or trend of climate change.

We need to re-assess management plans every few years, to

evaluate their efficiency, and to consider new approaches,

based on new knowledge and understanding. In addition, to

improve our ability to prepare for climate change, we must

expand scientific knowledge about the potential effects of

climate change on natural ecosystems and about manage-

ment options for increasing ecosystem resilience, via tar-

geted scientific research.

Climate change is one of the three primary threats to

biodiversity in Israel, in addition to the proliferation of

invasive species (mainly in the Mediterranean Sea), which

may be facilitated by climate change, and continued

infrastructure development and land-use change due to

population growth and needs. Climate change impacts are

expected to increase pressure on natural ecosystems, and to

act synergistically with other human effects to amplify the

threats on biodiversity (Nelson et al. 2009). Although

habitat loss and degradation are the primary immediate

threats to natural ecosystems in Israel, over longer time

spans, the combined effects of habitat loss, fragmentation,

and climate change argue for maintaining connectivity

across environmental gradients to allow species to track

suitable climate and habitat conditions. There is a general

consensus among scientists that more intact ecosystems

(i.e., protected from local stresses) will be more resilient to

external stressors such as climate change (Shoo et al.

2014). Therefore, protection of natural ecosystems must be

intensified to conserve biodiversity against development

pressures or extraction of biological resources. This should

be combined with the establishment of protective ecolog-

ical corridors to minimize fragmentation of existing natural

areas (Bennett and Mulongoy 2006).

Based on the surveys, meetings of the expert working

groups, and literature review, a number of recommenda-

tions for actions contributing to the improved ability of

natural ecosystems to cope with climate change have been

formulated (Table 1). It is noteworthy that most of the

recommended actions are supported by government deci-

sions or appropriate policy statements. Many of the actions

were recommended in the past; however, they were not

implemented. Implementation of these actions is urgently

required to conserve biodiversity in Israel in the face of

developmental pressures and climate change.

Acknowledgments The study was supported by the Israel Climate

Change Information Center (ICCIC) in preparation for formulating

Israel’s national response strategy to climate change. ICCIC was

financially supported by the Israel Ministry for Environmental Pro-

tection (MEP). We thank all the people who answered the question-

naire as part of the expert survey and the Chief Scientist of MEP for

supporting this project. Thanks are also extended to two anonymous

reviewers for fruitful comments on an earlier version of this

manuscript.

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