Impact of the Surge in Chinese Import on Indian Manufacturing Sector

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Impact of the Surge in Chinese Import on Indian Manufacturing Sector

Jitender Singh

Assistant Director

RESEARCH STUDIES OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER

DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND PROMOTION MINISTRY OF COMMERCE & INDUSTRY

UDYOG BHAWAN, NEW DELHI INDIA

July, 2012

Vie ws expre s s e d in th is pape r are t hos e o f t he author(s ) an d m ay not be at t ribut e d t o th e Government of India.

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Acknowledgement

This Study w ou ld not h ave been pos s ib le w ithou t the help of a num ber of people w h o w ith the ir k ind cooperation , active s uperv is ion an d s tead fas t s upport have m ad e th is res earch w ork reality .

I am ex trem ely gratefu l to Principal Ad vis er Dr. Man ju la Kris hn an , w hos e k een con tinuous encouragem en t and s ugges tions helped to com ple te th is w ork .

I am th ank fu l to S hri S rik ara Naik , Econom ic Ad vis er and S hri M.C. S ingh i, S en ior Economic Adviser for his valu able com m en ts an d encouragem en t to com ple te th is w ork . I a ls o ex tend m y s incere gratitud e to Ms . Man is h a Meen a, As s is tan t Director for s h arin g her valu able though ts an d help in g in und ers tan d ing the d ata. I als o th ank Shri Purohit, Economic Officer who provid ed th e d ata s upport.

Place:

Date: Jitender Singh

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Impact of the Surge in Chinese Import on Indian Manufacturing Sector

Abstract

In d ian im port trend reported a s urge in recen t pas t few y ears , pos s ib ly becau s e of cheap im port of Ch ines e m anufactu ring good s . The trad e d eficit w ith Ch in a is als o ris ing along w ith ris in g reques t for in trod ucing an ti d um ping m eas ures agains t Ch ines e im port. Thes e trend poin ts the need to check the profile of im port from Ch in a an d its rela tion w ith our d om es tic m anufactu ring prod uction s tructu re . The m ajor ques tion ad d res s ed in th is res earch s tud y is : How are trend s in im port from Ch in a as s ocia ted w ith im port and m anufactu ring in s pecific ind us try s ub-group in India?

A concord ance be tw een Ind ian Trad e Clarifica tion bas ed on Harm on iz ed S y s tem (ITC-HS ) Cod e and Nation al Ind us try Clas s if ication (NIC) a t 5 d igit level is d eveloped for las t 7 y ears for 268 item s of IIP (Ind ex of Ind us trial Prod uction) and im port, and s epara tely w ith im port from Ch in a. The ind ices for the im port, IIP (268 item s ) an d ind us try s ubgroups have been cons tructed . The export ind ex (u s ed s am e m ethod ology an d concord ance) is tak en from an earlier S tud y by S in gh i, M.C. 2011 .

The Ind ex of Ind us trial Prod uction (IIP) for 268 item s , Ind ex for Im port from all countries (Im port Ind ex from now ) and Ind ex for Export h as grow n res pectively by 107.8 %, 1773 .1 %, and 143 .4% in 2010-11 over the bas e of 2004-05 . The Ch in es e im port ind ex (Ch in es e ind ex from now ) for s am e item s h as grow n by 4618 .4% in 2010-11 over the bas e 2005-06 , w h ich is m uch h igher th an the im port ind ex. The s h are of the im ports of 268 item s from Ch in a in total im ports from Ch in a to Ind ia h as jum ped to 41 .3% in 2010-11 from 26.3% in 2005-06.

There are enough ev id ence to s u s pect th a t im port to In d ia from coun tries other th an Ch in a are now increas ingly been replaced by cheap Ch ines e im port. Therefore the im port to Ind ia is progres s ively concen tra ting w ith Ch in a. Broad ly the B as ic Good s an d the In term ed ia te Good s s ectors s eem

to be nega tively affected from the cheap Ch ines e im port. How ever, acros s industry sub-group there are num ber of prod ucts h aving negatively im pacted by Ch ines e import.

The large im port from Ch in a are noticed in ind us try s ub-group of rad io, te levis ion an d com m un ica tion equ ipm en t , follow ed by Mach inery an d equ ipm en t , office accoun ting an d com pu tin g m ach inery , other tran s port equ ipm en t , e lectrical m ach inery an d apparatu s , Bas ic Metals , Fabrica ted m eta l prod ucts , excep t m ach inery , Chem ical an d chem ical prod ucts , m otor veh icles , tra ilers and s em i-tra ilers , and rubber

an d plas tic prod ucts .

***

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Impact of the Surge in Chinese import on Indian Manufacturing

INTRODUCTION

Th e t ren d in im por ts to In d ia s h ows a s u rge in ch ea p Ch in es e im por ts of m a n u fa ctu r in g goods to In d ia , a ccu m u la t ion in In d ia s t ra de deficit with Ch in a a n d r is in g requ es t for in t rodu cin g a n t i du m pin g m ea s u res a ga in s t Ch in es e im por ts poin ts th e n eed to ch eck th e p rofile of im por ts from Ch in a a n d its rela t ion with ou r dom es t ic m a n u fa ctu r in g p rodu ct ion s t ru ctu re. Th e m a jor question this research study attempt to address is: How trends in imports from China are associated with manufacturing production in India?

Th e m a s s ive d ivers ified m a n u fa ctu r in g ca pa city crea t ion in Ch in a du r in g recen t pa s t h a s res u lted in dom es t ic m a rket s u rp lu s es of m a n u fa ctu red p rodu cts . Th e h u n t for n ew m a rkets ou ts ide to du m p th is glu t p rodu ct ion is well ca p tu red in th e s ta t is t ics . Ch in a s s h a re in wor ld expor ts between 200 0 a n d 2010 increas ed by 6 .5 percen ta ge poin ts com pa red to In d ia n just 0.8 percen ta ge poin ts . Arou n d h a lf of th is tota l in crea s e in th e Ch in a s share is with em ergin g a n d develop in g cou n tr ies wh ile for In d ia it is on ly 6 per cen t of the tota l in crea s e (Econ om ic Su rvey, 2011-12). Th e ea s y ta rget for Ch in es e expor ts is it s p roxim ity to In d ia wh ere m a n u fa ctu r in g s ector is s t ru gglin g to im prove its rela t ive s t ren gth in th e econ om y (m a n u fa ctu r in g s h a re in GDP is s ta gn a n t) a n d expor t of m a n u fa ctu r in g goods is la den on th e s m a ll s ca le s ector or based on the use of imported raw materials. A rising input requirements for in du s try a n d m a n u fa ctu r in g goods dem a n d in In d ia is reflected in in crea s e in the Non-POL non-bullion imports i.e. by 29.3 per cent in 2010-11.

China h a s becom e th e la rges t s ou rce of In d ia n im por ts with a n 11 .7 per cen t s h a re in it s tota l im por ts . In d ia s low expor t / im por t ra t io (0 .45 in 2010-11) with Ch in a is res u lt in g in h u ge t ra de deficit . Tra de deficit of In d ia with China have in crea s ed from US$ 19 .2 b illion in 2009-10 to US$ 23 .9 b illion in 2010-11 indicating the surge in imports from China.

Ch ea p Ch in es e im por ts h a ve a ls o s u rged in Afr ica , US a n d La t in Am erica n Cou n tr ies . Ch in a beca m e b igges t t ra d in g pa r tn er of Sou th Afr ica in a s h or t s pa n of t im e. Th e Ch in es e expor ts to Sou th Afr ica es pecia lly in textile sector, a re bu llyin g loca l in du s tr ies in Sou th Afr ica . In Bra zil in du s tr ia l ou tpu t

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is a ls o get t in g a dvers ely im pa cted from im por ts from Ch in a bes ides d u e to the sluggish global economy.

In th is ba ckdrop th e m os t ob viou s qu es t ion s likely to be ra is ed a re: why is t h ere a s urge in exp or t from Ch ina t o Ind ia in recen t y ea r? Whether Ch ina s m a nufa c t ur ing is acquiring com p et i t iveness over t h e t im e compared to India? The outward oriented growth in Chinese economy may be th e rea s on to boos t th e expor t a n d th erefore s u rge of im por ts to In d ia . Or Wh et h er Ind ia n manufacturing is los ing i t s com p e t i t ivenes s a ga ins t China? On e m a y s u s pect a bou t los s of com pet it iven es s of Indian Manufacturing in past few years, primarily due to fast rising cost of production, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Or Is t h ere a ny unfa ir p la y by t h e Ch ina t o d um p t h e g lu t in Ind ia ? Th e u n fa ir p ra ct ices s u ch a s du m pin g of s u bs ta n da rd glu t p rodu ct ion in to India from China also seems to partially responsible for surge in import. In d ia s anti-dumping in it ia t ion s in crea s ed to 55 in 2008 , fell to 31 in 2009 , bu t a ga in in crea s ed to 41 in 2010 . The main cou n tr ies in volved in th es e in ves t iga t ion s a re Korea RP, Ch in es e, Ta ipei (Taiwan), etc.. Or Are im p or t from ot h er t h a n Ch ina t o Ind ia is ge t t ing rep la ced by Ch ines e im p or t ? It m a y be pos s ib le th a t th e im por t from cou n tr ies oth er th a n Ch in a to In d ia is in crea s in g bein g replaced by cheap Chinese import.

Th e los s of com pet it iven es s by th e In d ia n in du s try a n d th e u n fa ir p la y, if any, are the most important questions to be answered first. If the answer is yes for on e or both , th en cer ta in ly it wou ld ca r ry th e poten t ia l to ca u s e in ju ry to th e In d ia n m a n u fa ctu r in g in s h or t a n d lon g ru n . Th is s tu dy is a p relim in a ry investigation to look into the questions.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:

(i). To iden t ify th e in du s try s u b -group, a n d p rodu cts wh ere th e im por t , especially form Chinese, is impacting th e dom es t ic manufacturing production;

(ii). To iden t ify th e in d u s try s u bgrou p , a n d p rodu cts wh ere th e im por t from China is replacing the import to India from countries other than China;

DATA SOURCES & METHODOLOGY

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The data of industrial production for 268 items is sourced from the Office

of th e Econ om ic Advis er , Depa r tm en t of In du s tr ia l Produ ct ion & Policy (DIPP), Min is t ry of Com m erce & In du s try. Th e da ta on expor ts a n d im por ts is ta ken from the Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce & Industry. The data on im por t , expor t a n d dom es t ic p rodu ct ion for 2 68 item s is synchronized by a con corda n ce between th e ITC (HS) code and NIC Cla s s ifica t ion of in du s tr ia l Produ ct ion a t 5 Digit level. Ea ch HS code item for im por t is regrouped against its res pect ive dom es t ic in du s tr ia l p rodu ct ion a t NIC-5 d igit code. Th e im port from Ch in a for th e 268 item s h a s a ls o been h a rm on ized in to th e NIC cla s s ifica t ion a t 5 d igit level. The s tu dy covers a period of s even yea rs 2004-05 to 2010-11.

Even a fter con corda n ce, th e figu re for im por t , expor t a n d dom es t ic industrial production may not directly be comparable. The domestic production figures for the 268 items are reported in different units e.g. tones, rupee crores, m eters etc., a n d m a y n ot be d irect ly com pa ra b le with on e a n oth er a n d with im por t figu res . Th e im por t figu res h owever , a re a va ila b le u n iform ly in va lu e term s a n d th erefore ca r ry effect of th e in fla t ion , wh ich m a y be a bs en t from m a n y of th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion figu res repor ted in term s of ph ys ica l ou tpu t . Th erefore th e in d ices a re con s tru cted for th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion a n d im por t to make these comparable.

Th e in dex of th e im por t is defla ted with th e a ppropr ia te p r ice in dex con s tru cted from th e Wh oles a le Pr ice In dex (WPI) to elim in a te th e in fla t ion effect on im por t . S im ila r ly, for th e item s wh ere dom es t ic p rodu ct ion is repor ted in va lu e term s , th e s a m e is defla ted with a ppropr ia te p r ice in d ices . Th e u s e-ba s ed in d ices a re defla ted with th e overa ll WPI in dex for th e 268 item s . Th e fin a l in d ices for exp or t for 20 04-11 a re ta ken from a n ea r lier Res ea rch Stu dy by Mr. M.C. Sin gh i, Sr . Econ om ic Advis er , 2011 , for Office of th e Econ om ic Adviser.

Th es e 26 8 item s a ccou n t for 60 .4% weigh t in th e m a n u fa ctu r in g s ector a n d 45 .6% weigh t in th e overa ll In dex of In du s tr ia l Produ ct ion (IIP). Th e covera ge of DIPP a t b roa d grou ps of m a n u fa ctu r in g va r ies from a low of 1 .1 % for manufacture of coke, refin ed petroleu m p rodu cts a n d n u clea r fu el to 100% in 15 groups (Singhi, M.C. 2011).

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY:

Th e s tu dy covers on ly 45 .6% of th e weigh ts of IIP, 268 DIPP item s , for wh ich th e p rodu ct ion da ta is a va ila b le with th e Depa r tm en t of In du s tr ia l

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Produ ct ion & Prom otion (DIPP). Th erefore a ll th e lim ita t ion s of IIP a re in h eren t in the analysis.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for 268 Items

The 268 items accounted for 23 % of the total Import to India in 2010-11 a n d 45 .6 % of th e In dex of In du s tr ia l Produ ct ion . Th e in d ices of IIP (268 item s ), Im por t a n d Expor t respectively h a ve grown to 207 .8 , 1873 .1 , a n d 243 .4 in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table-1). Th e im por t h a s been growin g consistently above the growth of IIP and the Export. In 2010-11 there is a surge in th e im por t growth . Th e con s is ten t a n d rela t ively h igh im por t growth h a s led to in crea s e in th e s h a re of 268 item s im por t in tota l im por t to 27% in 2008-09 and 23% in 2010-11 (Table- 29 in Annexure).

Table 1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) (268 items), Import and Export Indices and Growth

Year IIP Index

IMP Index

Export Index*

Growth

2004-05

100 100 100 IIP Import Export

Index of Chinese Imports

Share of 268 items in total imports from

China 2005-06

114.7

199.2 116.5 14.7 99.2 16.5 100.0

26.3 2006-07

132.1

235.6 138.2 15.2 18.2 18.6 2330.0

25.5 2007-08

176.5

319.7 144.8 33.6 35.7 4.8 1560.4

33.9 2008-09

178.7

432.4 205.2 1.2 35.3 41.7 3033.3

39.7 2009-10

187.0

607.4 179.3 4.6 40.5 -12.6 1235.4

42.9 2010-11

207.8

1873.1 243.4 11.1 208.4 35.8 4718.4

41.3 * Export Index is taken from the Research Study by Mr. M.C. Singhi, Sr. Economic Adviser, 2011, for Office of the Economic Adviser.

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Th e in dex of im por t from Ch in a (Ch in es e In dex from n ow) for 268 item s

h a s grown even fa s ter to 4718 .4 in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2005-06, com pa red to in dex of im por t from a ll cou n tr ies (Im por t In dex from n ow). Th is m a m m oth growth in Ch in es e In dex from pa s t s ix yea rs h a s been con s idera b ly h igh er th a n th e Im por t In dex. Th erefore, th e Ch in es e im por t s h a re of th es e item s in tota l Ch in es e im por ts is ju m ped to 41 .3% in 2010-11 from 26 .3% in 2005-06 . Th is in d ica tes th a t In d ia is p rogres s ively s ou rcin g im por ts of th es e item s from Ch in a th erefore th e im por t from cou n tr ies oth er th a n Ch in a a re now increasingly being replaced by Chinese imports in these selected items.

USE BASED CLASSIFICATION

As per th e Use-based cla s s ifica t ion of IIP (268 item s ), th e im por t s h a re of th e Ca p ita l Goods is la rges t (8 .8% in 2010-11), followed by Con s u m er Goods (6 .5% a n d in term ed ia te goods (4 .7%), a n d Ba s ic Goods (2 .9%) (Table 29 . in Annexure).

Basic Goods

Th e va lu e of th e IIP of Ba s ic Goods h a s grown to 168 .4 in 2010-11 over the base 2004-05 (Table 2). Comparatively the Import Index has grown to 534.6 du r in g s a m e per iod . Th e Ch in es e In dex h owever , h a s grown even fa s ter to 4307 .4 in 2010-11 over th e b a s e of 20 05-06 th a n Im por t In dex a n d IIP. Th e s h a re of th e Ba s ic goods item s in th e tota l Ch in es e im por t , h owever rem a in a lm os t s ta gn a n t . Ma jor Ba s ic Goods , in term s of va lu e, im por ted from Ch in a are Alu m in u m , Copper a n d Copper Produ cts , Alu m in u m Sh eets / Pla tes , Aluminum Foils, Carbon Black, Wires (Copper), and Cement All Kinds.

The Ch in a s s h a re in tota l im por t to In d ia for the C.I. Ca s t in gs , Alu m in iu m Foils , Alu m in iu m wires & extru s ion s , Alu m in iu m sheets/Plates, An ilin e, Ca rbon Bla ck , Cem en t All Kin ds , Alu m in iu m , Su lph u r ic Acid In cl. Oleum, Copper and Copper Products etc increased considerably in 2006-09 but moderated thereafter. The period, 2006-09, is of high industrial growth in India wh ich m igh t s u bs ta n t ia te th a t th e h igh dom es t ic in du s tr ia l growth is increasingly fueled by larger import of basic goods from China.

Table 2. Basic Goods

Year IIP Index IMP Index Chinese Import

2004-05 100 100

Growth IMP Growth

Index Share

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2005-06 113.6 158.0 13.6 58.0 100.0 1.5 2006-07 122.6 279.5 7.9 76.9 2060.2 1.7 2007-08 140.3 395.8 14.4 41.6 3515.4 2.0 2008-09 147.1 697.3 4.9 76.2 2302.7 1.8 2009-10 161.0 499.9 9.5 -28.3 3204.0 1.5 2010-11 168.4 534.6 4.6 6.9 4307.4 1.6

Capital Goods

Th e in dex of ca p ita l goods in du s try h a s grown to 138 .6 in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2004-05 com pa red to Im p or t in dex 565 .5 du r in g th e s a m e per iod (Table 3 ). Th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion of th e ca p ita l goods declin ed in du r in g th e 2008-09, the crisis time, however, the imports growth jumped to 43.4%. Later, th e growth of th e im por t h owever h a s declin ed to zero in recen t yea r , wh ereb y th e Ch in es e In dex h a s ju m ped con s idera b ly over th e ba s e of 2005-06 to 10793.1 in 2010-11.

Th e h igh growth in Ch in es e In dex over Im por t In dex s ign a ls th a t th e In d ia n im por t of Ca p ita l Goods a re reloca t in g its elf from res t of th e wor ld to China, es pecia lly for th e item s s u ch a s H.T. Insulators, Boilers, Footwear excep t lea th er , Refra ctory Br icks , Computers, Hea t Exch a n gers , Grinding Wheels, Pa cka gin g Ma ch in ery, Air Con d it ion er (Pa cka ged), Chillers, Electric Welding Machines, Fibre Optic Cable, Electric Motors Phase-I, Cooling Towers, Printers, Com pu ter Per iph era ls , Cranes, Tu rb in es & Acces s or ies , Lifts / Eleva tors & Com pon en ts th ereof, Ma gn es ite, Dea d Bu rn t, Cylinders, Pr in t in g Ma ch in ery, Sh ip Bu ild in g & Repa irs , In s u la ted Ca b les / Wires a ll Kin d , Sola r Power Sys tem s , Air & Ga s Com pres s ors , Text ile Ma ch in ery, Industrial Chains, Agr icu ltu ra l Ma ch in ery, UPS/Inverter/Converter, Construction Machine/Equipment, In du s tr ia l Blowers , Forklift, Tra n s form ers (Sm all), Loaders, DC Motors , Air Brea k Switch es / Circu it , Breakers, An d Generator/Alternator.

Table 3. Capital Goods

Years IIP IMP Index Chinese Imports

2004-05 100 100 Growth IIP Growth of IMP

Index Share

2005-06 108.2 332.8 8.2 232.8 100.0 15.8

2006-07 119.8 276.5 10.7 -16.9 4396.4 12.8

2007-08 127.9 354.2 6.8 28.1 1829.7 15.2

2008-09 127.7 507.8 -0.1 43.4 6091.5 14.3

2009-10 131.2 565.3 2.7 11.3 1090.1 16.3

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2010-11 138.6 565.5 5.6 0.0 10793.1 15.8

Ma in ca p ita l goods item s im por ted from Ch in a , in term s of va lu e,

includes Sh ip Bu ild in g & Repa irs , Com pu ters , Text ile Ma ch in ery, Air Con d it ion er (Pa cka ged), Pr in t in g Ma ch in ery, Com pu ter Per iph era ls , Boilers , In s u la ted Ca b les / Wires a ll Kin d , Ma ch in e Tools , Con s tru ct ion Machine/Equipmen, Sta b ilis ers , Tu rb in es & Acces s or ies , Refra ctory Br icks , Air & Ga s Com pres s ors , E lectr ic Motors Ph a s e-I, Lifts / Eleva tors & Com pon en ts th ereof, Pu m ps (in clu d in g power d r iven p u m ps ), Med ica l a n d Su rgica l Equ ipm en t (excep t x-ra y), Sola r Power Sys tem s , En gin es In cl. In tern a l Com bu s t ion a n d Dies el, En gin e, Agr icu ltu ra l Ma ch in ery, Transformers (Small), Gen era tor / Altern a tor , UPS/ In ver ter / Con ver ter , Pla s t ic Ma ch in ery In cl. Mou ld in g Ma ch in ery, Cra n es , Air Brea k Switch es / Circu it Brea kers , Ch illers , DC Motors, and Electric Motors(Excl. Phase-I).

Intermediate Goods

Th e va lu e of IIP for in term ed ia te goods h a ve in crea s ed to 303 .0 in 2010-11 a t th e ba s e of 2004-05 , com pa red to th e im por t in dex va lu e of 781 .5 du r in g th e s a m e per iod (Table 4 ). Th e im por t of in term ed ia te goods h a ve grown fa s ter th a n th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion , a n d th e im por ts of in term ed ia te goods from China have grown even faster than the Import Index.

The import item s wh ere th e Ch in a is getting its h old a re Parts

Bicycle, Au to An cilla ry & Pa r ts , Sod iu m Hydros u lph a te/ Sod iu m , Hydros u lph ite, Glass Sheet, Tou gh en ed Gla s s , Fib re Gla s s , Dyes, Magnets, Plywood, Tin Con ta in ers , Weld in g Rods , Wh iten in g Agen ts , Power Ca pa citors , Graphite Electrodes/Anodes, Stra w An d Pa per Boa rds of All Kin ds , Pla s t ic Film Excl. Bopp Film , Steel Stru ctu res , Wood Ven eer, Alu m in iu m Tu bes / Pipes , Glass Bottles, Bea r in gs (Ba ll/ Roller ), HDPE Woven Sa cks , Ru bber Ch em ica l, Plastic Sheets, Adhesives, Colou r TV Pictu re Tu bes , Len s of All Kin ds , a n d IC Ch ips & Transistors.

Table 4. Intermediate Goods

Years IIP Index IMP Index Growth Chinese Import

2004-05 100 100 IIP IMPORT Index Share

2005-06 116.5 149.0 16.5 49.0 100.0 4.7

2006-07 140.6 218.9 20.7 46.9 2234.0 5.7

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2007-08

265.0 267.0 88.5 22.0 954.8 6.3

2008-09 281.1 337.2 6.1 26.3 1619.8 5.7

2009-10 274.0 498.6 -2.5 47.8 1281.7 5.4

2010-11 303.0 781.5 10.6 56.8 899.3 5.2

Th e m a jor im por ts from Ch in a , in term s of va lu e, a re Au to An cilla ry & Pa r ts , IC Ch ips & Tra n s is tors , Bea r in gs (Ba ll/ Roller ), Pa r ts

Bicycle, Steel Stru ctu res , Stra w An d Pa per Boa rds of All Kin ds , Dyes , Power Ca pa citors , Gra ph ite Electrodes / An odes , Pr in ted Circu it Boa rd / Pla te, Fib re Gla s s , Ma gn ets , Colou r TV Pictu re Tu bes , Syn th et ic Ru bber , Ru bber Ch em ica l, Weld in g Rods , Plywood , Adh es ives , Gea r Boxes , Tou gh en ed Gla s s , PVC Res in s , Newsprint, Plastic Sheets, Plastic Film Excl. Bopp Film, and Printing Ink.

Consumer Goods

Th e va lu e of th e In dex of Con s u m er Goods h a s grown to 205 .9 in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table 5 ). However , Im por t In dex h a s grown rela t ively m u ch fa s ter to 3551 .7 du r in g s a m e s even yea rs . Th e growth of th e Im por t In dex h a s b een fa s ter th a n th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion of th e con s u m er goods . Th e va lu e of th e Ch in es e In dex h a s been con s idera b ly h igh er th a n IIP a n d Im por t In dex. Th e s h a re of th e Ch in es e im por ts h a s a ls o ju m ped to 18 .8 % in 2010-11 com pa red to ju s t 4 .3 % in 2005-06 . Th e im por ts of Con s u m er Du ra b les Goods is growin g a t m u ch fa s ter ra te th a n even th e oth er u s e ba s ed in du s tr ies a n d th erefore pu s h in g th e s h a re of Con s u m er Goods in tota l im por t from China.

Th e item s wh ere th e Ch in a s s h a re in tota l im por ts of th e res pect ive item s is r is in g a re Bicycles, PVC/ Pla s t ic Su itca s es , Terry Towel, Calculators, Glucose( powder & liquid), Ru bber Fla ps , Flu ores cen t Tu bes , Lea th er Sh oes , Fans, Ba t tery Ch a rger , Tyre, Tru ck / Bu s , Mixers & Grin ders , Tube, Cycle/Rickshaw, Tyre, Cycle/ Ricks h a w, Tu be, Tru ck , Teleph on e In s t ru m en ts Including, Mobile Ph on e An d Acces s or ies , Wood Fu rn itu re, Air Con d it ion er (Room), Vitamins, Porcela in An d Cera m ic Sa n ita ry, Wa res , Amplifier, Leather Ba gs , Wa llets , Pu rs es , Tyre, Motor Cycle , Pres s u re Cooker, Motor Cycles , Lea th er Ga rm en ts , Tooth Bru s h , Wa s h in g Ma ch in es , Apparels, Incandescent Lamp, Spor ts Goods , Ru bber , Ra zor Bla des / Sa fety Bla des , Pen s of All Kin d , Gla zed Tiles / Cera m ic Tiles , Tyre, Ca r / Ca b , Polyth en e Ba gs In cl. Hdpe & Ldpe, Ba gs , Scooter a n d Mopeds , Squ a s h es , J a m s , J ellies , Ketch u ps ,Etc.,

Pa g e | 12

Ca tt le a n d Pou lt ry Feed , Refrigerators, Ma rb le Tiles / Sla bs , Cock (Fa u cets ), Syringes, Com pu ter Sta t ion ery, Lea th er Gloves , Condoms, Cigarettes, Fruit Juices, PVC Pipes a n d Tu bes , Electr ic m eter of a ll k in ds , Wa ter m eter of a ll kinds, Clock / Wa tch / Tim ep iece Movem en t, Food Proces s in g Ma ch in ery, Antibiotics & It's Preparations, Elastic Tape, And Toilet Soap.

Ma jor con s u m er du ra b le item s , im por ted from Ch in a , in term s of va lu e, are Telep h on e In s t ru m en ts In clu d in g Mobile Ph on e a n d Acces s or ies , Air Con d it ion er (Room ), Tyre, Tru ck / Bu s , Wood Fu rn itu re, Wa s h in g Ma ch in es , Cock (Fa u cets ), Fa n s , Pvc/ Pla s t ic Su itca s es , Tyre, Ca r / Ca b , Bicycles , Ca lcu la tors , Porcela in An d Cera m ic Sa n ita ry, Wa res , Clock / Wa tch / Tim ep iece Movement, Battery Charger, Refrigerators, Watches, Amplifier, Books, and Tyre, Motor Cycle .

Table 5. Consumer Goods

Years IIP IMP Index Growth Chinese Import 2004-05 100 100 IIP IMP Index Share 2005-06 117.9 151.0 17.9 51.0 100.0 4.3 2006-07 137.2 209.1 16.3 38.5 907.2 5.3 2007-08 164.7 308.9 20.1 47.7 1362.6 10.4 2008-09 159.5 377.0 -3.2 22.0 1732.0 18.0 2009-10 178.4 713.9 11.9 89.4 945.7 19.7 2010-11 205.9 3551.7 15.4 397.5 2503.1 18.8

Table 6. Correlation Coefficients of the Growth Rates

Capital Goods

Basic Goods

Intermediate Goods

Consumer Goods

Over All

Import Index 0.148 -0.230 -0.624 0.194 -0.094

Chinese Index 0.760 -0.012 -0.088 0.314 -0.229

The correlation coefficient (see Table 6) is used as to identify the direction of th e co-m ovem en t in th e growth ra tes of th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion a n d th e im por ts . Th e pos it ive s ign of th e coefficien t in d ica tes th a t th e im por t growth a n d dom es t ic p rodu ct ion growth is m ovin g togeth er in th e s a m e d irect ion . On e ca n in fer from th e s a m e d irect ion a l co-m ovem en t of th e growth ra tes th a t th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion a n d th e im por t s eem to be com plem en ta ry, a n d n ot s u bs t itu te. Rega rd in g th e ca p ita l goods a n d th e Con s u m er goods th e correla t ion is pos it ive between im por t in d ices a n d th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion in d ices . However , th e cor rela t ion rega rd in g overa ll IIP, ba s ic Goods a n d

Pa g e | 13

in term ed ia te Goods is n ega t ive, s h owin g th a t th e growth of th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion is m ovin g in opp os ite d irect ion to th e im por t growth . Sin ce th e Ch in es e In dex is h igh er th a n th e IIP, th e n ega t ive correla t ion coefficien t s h ows th a t th e im por t in Ba s ic Goods a n d In term ed ia te Goods a re n ega t ively im pa ct in g th e dom es t ic m a n u fa ctu r in g p rodu ct ion in th es e grou ps . Th e m a n u fa ctu r in g growth ra te a ls o s eem s to be a dvers ely a ffected du e to a dvers e impact of the growth Basic and Intermediate goods.

INDUSTRY SUB-GROUPS

Manufacture of food products and Beverages

Th e IIP value of food Produ cts & Bevera ges h a s grown to 167 .7 in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2004-05 com pa red to Im por t In dex to 9635 .7 a n d expor t in dex 148 .3 du r in g th e s a m e period (Table 7 ). Th e va lu e of th e Ch in es e In dex h a s been s ign ifica n t ly grown to 12791 .3 in 2010-11 over 2005-06 ba s e, com pa red to IIP a n d th e Im por t In dex. Th is in d ica tes th a t th e im por t from Ch in a in th is s u bgrou p of in du s try h a s in crea s ed t rem en dou s ly in pa s t s even yea rs . Th e item s m a in ly s ou rced from Ch in a , in term s of s h a re in tota l im por ts of th e item in In d ia , a re Glucose (powder & liqu id ), Squ a s h es , J a m s , J ellies , Ketchups, etc., Cattle and Poultry Feed, and Fruit Juices.

Top five item s im por ted from Ch in a , in term s of th eir va lu e, a re Industrial Alcoh ol(Rect ified / Den a tu red Sp ir it ), Ca t t le a n d Pou lt ry Feed , Glu cos e(powder&liqu id ), Fru it J u ices , In d ia n m a de Foreign Liqu or , Squ a s h es , Jams, Jellies, Ketchups,Etc..

Table 7. Manufacture of food products and Beverages

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EXP Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports

2004-05

100

100

100

Index Growth Share

2005-06

113.6

151.6

109.5

13.6

51.6

9.5

100.0 0.31

2006-07

126.2

190.4

111.3

11.1

25.6

1.6

5713.1 5613.1 0.45

2007-08

144.9

364.9

148.3

14.8

91.6

33.2

7693.2 34.7 0.25

2008-09

149.6

360.8

148.9

3.3

-1.1

0.4

5191.8 -32.5 0.18

2009-10

159.2

1468.8

129.0

6.4

307.1

-13.4

3444.8 -33.6 0.20

2010-11

167.7

9635.7

148.3

5.3

556.0

15.0

12791.3

271.3 0.22

Manufacture of Tobacco Products

Pa g e | 14

Th e IIP of Toba cco in crea s ed to ju s t five percen t in 2010-11 com pa red to

2004-05 , wh ile expor t h a s grown by fifty five percen t a n d im por t by m ore th a n fou r t im es in pa s t s even yea rs (Table. 8 ). Th e im por t of Toba cco from Ch in a is on a decline during past six years. Cigarette is the main item in this category of import from China.

Table. 8 Manufacture of Tobacco Products

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr.


2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share

2005-06

104.8 48.8 97.3 4.8 -51.2 -2.7 100.0 0.01 2006-07

107.7 67.7 114.7 2.7 38.7 17.9 0.5 -99.5 0.00

2007-08

98.8 84.7 118.0 -8.2 25.0 2.9 29.6 5713.0 0.00

2008-09

103.9 353.4 140.8 5.2 317.3 19.3 38.9 31.6 0.00 2009-10

104.2 483.8 140.5 0.2 36.9 -0.2 32.7 -16.0 0.00 2010-11

105.5 427.2 155.7 1.3 -11.7 10.8 96.8 196.0 0.00

Manufacture of Textiles

Th e Text ile is export or ien ta ted in du s try. Th e va lu e of IIP for text iles h a s grown almost equal to the Export Index in 2010-11 over the base of 2004-05 to 155 (Table 9). However, the Import Index surged during the crises year of 2008-09, to 248 , a lth ou gh it h a s declin ed th erea fter to 149 .3 . Th e Ch in es e In dex a ls o ju m ped to 9608 .1 in 2008-09 a lon g with th e s h a re of in du s try in tota l im por ts from Ch in a to 0 .03%. However , th e im por t from Ch in a h a s declin ed from 2009-10 on wa rds . Ma in im por t item s , in term s of va lu e, from Ch in a a re Terry Towel and Elastic Tapes.

Table 9. Manufacture of Textiles


Chinese Imports

2004-05

100 100 100 IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G Index Growth Share

2005-06

118.4 131.9 162.6 18.4 31.9 62.6 100.0 0.01

2006-07

127.7 68.8 161.8 7.8 -47.8 -0.5 259.6 159.6 0.00

2007-08

133.7 137.5 167.7 4.7 99.7 3.7 915.6 252.7 0.01

2008-09

130.3 248.4 186.6 -2.6 80.6 11.3 9608.1

949.4 0.03

2009-10

145.3 137.6 180.6 11.5 -44.6 -3.2 357.9 -96.3 0.00

2010-11

155.5 149.3 154.1 7.0 8.5 -14.7 225.6 -37.0 0.00

Manufacture of wearing Apparel; Dressing and dyeing of fur

Th e va lu e of th e IIP for wea r in g Appa rel; Dres s in g a n d dyein g etc. h a s in crea s ed to 120 in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table 10 ). Th ere is a

Pa g e | 15

declin e in th e p rodu ct ion s in ce 2008-09 in th is s egm en t . Th is is m a in ly on accou n t of th e declin e in th e expor t growth in th is s ector du r in g pa s t th ree yea rs excep t 2009-10 . At th e s a m e t im e va lu e of th e Im por t In dex h a s grown to 489.8 over the base of 2004-05. The Chinese import are growing at much faster ra te th a n res t of th e cou n tr ies , Ch in es e In dex in crea s ed to 690 .3 in 2010-11 over the base of 2005-06. The declining domestic production may be the cause of th e declin e in th e expor t . Bu t th e s u rge in im p or t from Ch in a is cer ta in ly a ca u s e of con cern . Th e Ch in a s im por t s h a re in tota l im por t of Appa rels a n d Lea th er Ga rm en ts h a s ju m ped to 39 % a n d 43 in 2010-11 com pa red to ju s t 17 % a n d 1 8% res pect ively. Th is ind ica tes th a t the Ch inese im port h as been replacing th e im port from other coun tries over th e tim e in th es e s ubgrou p com m od ities .

Table 10. Manufacture of wearing Apparel; Dressing and dyeing of fur

Years IIP Index IMP Index

EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G Chinese Imports

2004-05


2005-06

106.5 160.9 108.7 6.5 60.9 8.7 100.0 0.0

2006-07

117.6 195.4 103.1 10.4 21.5 -5.2 188.5 88.5 0.0

2007-08

129.7 317.5 101.9 10.3 62.5 -1.2 255.2 35.4 0.0

2008-09

121.5 414.1 141.4 -6.3 30.4 38.8 365.6 43.2 0.0

2009-10

119.6 307.2 129.9 -1.6 -25.8 -8.2 371.1 1.5 0.0

2010-11

120.2 489.8 108.2 0.5 59.5 -16.7 690.3 86.0 0.0

Tanning and Dressing of Leather

Th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion of lea th er In du s try is growin g a t a s low pa ce s in ce 2004-05 , a n d it h a s declin ed du r in g 2008-10 (Table 11 ). Th e growth of domestic production of this sector seems to be correlated to the export growth.

Table 11. Tanning and Dressing of Leather


IIP Gr. IMP Gr.


2004-05


2005-06

97.4 182.1 97.0 -2.6 82.1 -3.0 100.0 0.2

2006-07

115.7 246.4 103.3 18.9 35.3 6.5 345.1 245.1 0.2

2007-08

125.3 297.2 98.5 8.3 20.6 -4.6 415.2 20.3 0.1

2008-09

116.1 305.0 115.6 -7.4 2.6 17.4 405.2 -2.4 0.1

2009-10

112.2 714.0 105.6 -3.4 134.1 -8.7 214.6 -47.0 0.1

2010-11

126.4 472.4 112.7 12.7 -33.8 6.7 340.2 58.6 0.2

Pa g e | 16

Com pa red to dom es t ic p rodu ct ion th e im por t in th is s ector h a s been

growin g a t a rela t ively h igh er ra te excep t in recen t yea r . Th e im por t from Ch in a h a s declin ed du r in g 2008-10 followin g th e declin e in th e dom es t ic production. Ma in item s of im por t , in term s of va lu e, from Ch in a a re Footwea r excep t lea th er , Lea th er Sh oes , Ta n n ed or Ch rom e Sk in s a n d Lea th ers , Lea th er Ba gs , Wa llets , Pu rs es , and Leather Gloves.

Manufacture of wood and wood products

Th e va lu e of th e IIP for Woods & Woods p rodu cts h a s in crea s ed to 139 .6 in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2004-05 com pa red to shrinking Export Index of ju s t 57 .7 du r in g th e s a m e per iod (Table 12 ). Th e growth of IIP has declin ed during past three years. The growth of the export is also declining continuously during pa s t fou r yea rs . Th e Import In dex h owever , h a s r is en to 486 .3 a n d its growth h a s been very h igh a n d pos it ive in a ll s even yea rs excep t 2009-10 . Th e Ch in es e In dex h a s been even h igh er th a n th e Im por t In dex. Th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion m igh t be u n der s t res s du e to en viron m en ta l regu la t ion etc.. Main items of Import from China are Plywood, Wood Veneer and Particle Boards.

Table 12. Manufacture of wood and wood products

Years IIP Index

IMP Index

EX Index

IIP Gr.

IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports 2004-05

100 100 100 Index

Growth

Share

2005-06

103.9 166.4 106.9 3.9 66.4 6.9 100.0

0.1

2006-07

117.0 215.9 129.6 12.6 29.7 21.3 215.2

115.2 0.1

2007-08

134.9 297.0 122.1 15.3 37.6 -5.8 229.4

6.6 0.1

2008-09

140.3 339.0 111.4 4.0 14.1 -8.7 211.3

-7.9 0.0

2009-10

142.6 350.3 78.8 1.6 3.3 -29.3 295.9

40.0 0.1

2010-11

139.6 486.3 57.7 -2.1 38.8 -26.8 614.5

107.7 0.1

Manufacture of paper and paper products

The IIP for pa per & pa per p rodu cts h a s grown by 36 % in 201 0-11 com pa red to 2004-05, and annual growth of IIP h a s been low es pecia lly du r in g 2007-09 a n d n ega t ive in 2009-10 (Table 13 ). Su rp r is in gly th e beh a vior of th e export growth in th is s ector h a s been qu ite con tra s t in g to th e growth of th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion . Th e Ch in es e im por ts a re con tra ct in g du r in g pa s t two years. Ma jor item s of im por t from Ch in a a re St ra w a n d Pa per Boa rds of All Kin ds , News pr in t , Writ in g & Pr in t in g Pa per , Cra ft Pa per (Kra ft Pa per), Pu lp Rayon Grade, Computer Stationery.

Pa g e | 17

Table 13. Manufacture of paper and paper products



2004-05


2005-06

107.0 143.5 103.7 7.0 43.5 3.7 100.0 0.3

2006-07

116.4 208.1 119.0 8.8 45.1 14.7 2311.4

2211.4 0.8

2007-08

121.6 184.4 103.0 4.4 -11.4 -13.4 1998.0

-13.6 0.6

2008-09

124.5 237.6 120.6 2.4 28.8 17.1 3508.6

75.6 0.7

2009-10

124.2 365.3 139.6 -0.3 53.7 15.8 1477.5

-57.9 0.5

2010-11

136.0 160.3 104.1 9.5 -56.1 -25.4 844.8 -42.8 0.4

Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media

The value of the IIP of this industry sub group has grown to 132 in 2010-11 at the base of 2004-05, and the growth has been quite low during past three con t in u ou s yea rs (Table 14 ). Th e va lu e of th e Expor t In dex in th is s ector h a s grown to 175 .4 in 2010-11 . Th ere is h owever , con t in u ou s declin e in th e im por t s in ce 2004-05 excep t 2009-10 in wh ich th ere is a s u dden r is e in im por t . Th e growth of im por t from Ch in a h a s been qu ite h igh excep t 2009-10 . Th e im por t surge in 2009-10 s eem s to be from cou n tr ies oth er th a n Ch in a . Th e on ly item imported from China under this category is Books.

Table 14. Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media


Chinese Imports

2004-05

100 100 100 IIP Gr. IMP Gr.


2005-06

112.4 71.1 118.5 12.4 -28.9 18.5 100.0 0.0

2006-07

119.4 82.9 140.1 6.2 16.6 18.3 187.9 87.9 0.0

2007-08

133.4 70.3 146.4 11.7 -15.3 4.5 259.4 38.1 0.0

2008-09

133.9 73.3 179.4 0.4 4.2 22.5 620.0 139.0 0.0

2009-10

129.3 2349.0 161.5 -3.4 3106.1 -10.0 346.0 -44.2 0.0

2010-11

132.4 175.4 2.4 -100.0 8.6 377.5 9.1 0.0

Manufacture of Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel

Ca rbon Bla ck is th e on ly p rodu ct con s idered for th e a n a lys is u n der th is subgroup of in du s try a n d wh ich is a pa r t of 268 DIPP item s (Table 15 ). Th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion of th e p rodu ct h a s in crea s ed ju s t by 15 % in la s t s even yea rs . However , th e expor t h a s in crea s ed by 92 % a n d im por t by 74 % respectively in 2010-11 com pa red over 2004-05 . Th e m a s s ive im por t from

Pa g e | 18

Ch in a s eem s to pu t ch a llen ge before th e dom es t ic in du s try. Bla ck Ca rbon m a rket bein g oligopolis t ic in In d ia s eem s to be fa cin g p rob lem of du m pin g of the cheap product from China.

Table 15. Manufacture of Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel

Years

IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr.


2004-05


2005-06

102.8 85.8 77.9 2.8 -14.2 -22.1 100.0 0.0

2006-07

107.8 124.0 64.5 4.9 44.6 -17.2 605.5 505.5 0.0

2007-08

115.6 177.9 79.8 7.2 43.5 23.7 812.7 34.2 0.0

2008-09

107.3 197.6 88.1 -7.1 11.1 10.4 1210.6 49.0 0.0

2009-10

112.7 174.3 171.1 5.0 -11.8 94.2 1137.3 -6.1 0.1

2010-11

115.2 186.4 192.0 2.2 6.9 12.2 1103.6 -3.0 0.0

Manufacture of Chemical and chemical products

The IIP in th is s egm en t of in du s try h a s grown con s is ten t ly du r in g pa s t s even yea rs . Th e va lu e of th e IIP h a s grown to 142 .8 in 2010-11 com pa red to 2004-05 (Table 16). During the same years the Export Index reached to highest 501 .8 in 2008-09 , before it declin ed to 456 .9 in 2010-11 . Th e Im por t In dex h owever , is growin g a t fa s ter ra te a n d rea ch ed 456 .9 levels in 2010-11 . Th e growth of the Chinese Index seems to be even faster than the Import Index. The m a jor item s imported, in term s of va lu e, from Ch in a a re Dyes , Vita m in s , Syn th et ic Ru bber , Ru bber Ch em ica l, Adh es ives , PVC Res in s , Pr in t in g In k , Aniline, and Sodium Hydrosulphate/Sodium Hydrosulphite.

Table 16. Manufacture of Chemical and chemical products


Chinese Imports

2004-05

100 100 100 IIP Gr.

IMP Gr.


2005-06

109.0 139.9 111.8 9.0 39.9 11.8 100.0 1.3

2006-07

119.3 232.6 124.7 9.5 66.3 11.5 192.6 92.6 1.2

2007-08

125.3 272.4 151.4 5.0 17.1 21.4 379.7 97.2 1.2

2008-09

127.9 501.8 192.6 2.1 84.2 27.2 306.8 -19.2 0.8

2009-10

135.4 416.5 182.3 5.8 -17.0 -5.4 566.1 84.6 0.9

2010-11

142.8 456.9 194.5 5.5 9.7 6.7 654.2 15.6 0.8

Manufacture of rubber and plastic products

Pa g e | 19

The IIP of Ru bber & Pla s t ic in du s try grou p has in crea s ed by 74 .5 % in

2010-11 com pa red to 2004-05 , wh erea s th e Expor t In dex h a s grown by 48 % and Import Index by a massive 3155 % during the same period (Table 17). The growth of expor t h a s been n ega t ive in 2007-08 a n d 2009-10 . Th e Ch in es e In dex is growin g a t m ore th a n 200% a n d 3 00% in 2 006-07 a n d 2007-08 res pect ively, followin g a declin e th erea fter . Som e of th e m a jor item s im por ted from Ch in a a re Tyre, Tru ck / Bu s , PVC/ Pla s t ic Su itca s es , Tyre, Ca r / Ca b , Plastic Sheets, Plastic Film Excl. Bopp Film, Rubber Transmission And V Belts, HDPE Woven Sacks, Tyre, Motor Cycle, Tube, Truck , a n d Plastic Bottles.

The item s m a in ly s ou rced from Ch in a a re Pvc/ Pla s t ic, Su itca s es , Ru bber Fla ps , Tyre, Tru ck / Bu s , Tu be, Cycle/ Ricks h a w, Tyre, Cycle/ Ricks h a w, Tu be, Tru ck , Tyre, Motor Cycle , Tyre, Ca r / Ca b , Pla s t ic Film Excl., Bopp Film , Polythene Bags, Incl. Hdpe & Ldpe, Bags, and HDPE Woven Sacks.

Table 17. Manufacture of rubber and plastic products


Chinese Imports

2004-05

100 100 100 IIP Gr.

IMP Gr. EX G Index Growth Share

2005-06

113.3 128.8 120.9 13.3 28.8 20.9 100.0 0.5

2006-07

126.8 172.8 131.9 11.9 34.1 9.1 339.1 239.1 0.6

2007-08

139.7 205.4 124.5 10.1 18.9 -5.6 1398.9

312.5 0.8

2008-09

141.0 207.5 150.2 0.9 1.0 20.7 657.9 -53.0 0.6

2009-10

162.2 258.7 135.6 15.0 24.7 -9.7 515.8 -21.6 0.8

2010-11

174.5 3255.1 148.1 7.6 1158.1 9.2 570.3 10.6 0.8

Manufacture of other Non-metallic Mineral Products

The IIP of n on -m eta llic m in era ls h a s in crea s ed to 138 .7 in 2010-11 compared to 2004-05 (Table 18 ). The IIP has grown at average of 8.0 %, except 2008-10 , wh en th e growth of IIP d eclin ed to les s th a n on e percen t . Th e s lu ggis h growth in th e IIP h a s a ls o led to declin e in th e expor t of th is s egm en t . Vis ib le lin ka ge of p rodu ct ion a n d expor t of th is s ector rein forces th e expor t depen den cy. Th e Im por t In dex h a s grown to 650 over th e ba s e of 2004-05 com pa red to Ch in es e In dex 21302 .9 in 2008-09 over th e ba s e of 2005-06. Rela t ively h igh growth of th e Ch in es e im por t over res t of th e cou n tr ies s ign a ls that the Chinese import is replacing the import of non-metallic minerals.

Th e item s wh ere Ch in a is rep la cin g oth er cou n tr ies a re H.T.Insulators, Refra ctory Br icks , Gla s s Sh eet , Tou gh en ed Gla s s , Porcela in a n d Cera m ic,

Pa g e | 20

Sa n ita ry Wa res , Fib re Gla s s , Ma gn es ite, Dea d Bu rn t , Gla zed Tiles / Cera m ic, Tiles, Glass Bottles, and Marble Tiles/Slabs. Major items imported, in terms of value, from Ch in a a re Refra ctory Br icks , Fib re Gla s s , Tou gh en ed Gla s s , Porcela in An d Cera m ic Sa n ita ry Wa res , Ma gn es ite, Dea d Bu rn t , Cem en t All Kinds, Glass Sheet, Glass Bottles, H.T.Insulators, Marble and Tiles/Slabs.

Table 18 Manufacture of other Non-metallic Mineral Products


IIP Gr.

IMP Gr.


2004-05


2005-06

107.7 175.8 101.6 7.7 75.8 1.6 100.0 0.9

2006-07

115.9 314.1 118.3 7.6 78.7 16.5 15097.9

14997.9

1.0

2007-08

125.9 336.3 103.1 8.6 7.1 -12.9 2448.4 -83.8 0.8

2008-09

124.6 580.8 103.6 -1.0 72.7 0.5 21302.9

770.1 0.8

2009-10

126.4 1203.4 92.7 1.5 107.2 -10.5 768.9 -96.4 0.9

2010-11

138.7 650.2 103.2 9.7 -46.0 11.3 35071.6

4461.0 0.8

Manufacture of Basic Metals

Th e IIP for th e ba s ic m eta ls h a s grown to 147 .6 in 2010-11 com pa red to export in dex of 40 1 .4 a n d im por t in dex of 394 .1 over th e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table 19 ). Th e s h r in k in g expor t of th e ba s ic m eta ls in 2007-08 is followed by declin e in th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion in 2008-09 . Th e growth of th e im por t h a s a ls o been very h igh excep t 2007-08. The im port of Bas ic Metal form Ch in a is grow in g a t m u ch fas ter ra te th an th e im port from oth er coun tries , w h ich is an oth er in s tan ce of Chinese imports replacing the imports from other countries.

Table 19. Manufacture of Basic Metals



2004-05

100

100

100

Index Growth Share

2005-06

117.8

169.1

140.1

17.8

69.1

40.1

100.0 1.4

2006-07

131.5

199.1

234.1

11.6

17.7

67.1

543.3 443.3 1.6

2007-08

140.2

202.0

201.3

6.6

1.5

-14.0

1547.2 184.8 1.9

2008-09

132.7

228.8

147.2

-5.3

13.3

-26.9

2465.9 59.4 1.7

2009-10

140.3

249.3

143.5

5.7

9.0

-2.5

3484.5 41.3 1.3

2010-11

147.6

394.1

401.4

5.2

58.1

179.7

4608.1 32.2 1.5

Pa g e | 21

The items which are increasing sourced from China are Aluminium Foils,

Alu m in iu m wires & extru s ion s , Alu m in iu m Sh eets / Pla tes , Alu m in iu m Tu bes / Pip es , Alu m in iu m , An d Copper a n d Copper Produ cts . The m a jor item s of im por t , in term s of va lu e from Ch in a are a lu m in iu m , Copper a n d Copper Produ cts , Alu m in iu m Sh eets / Pla tes , Alu m in iu m Foils , Wires (Copper), a luminium Tubes/Pipes, and C.I. Castings.

Manufacture of Fabricated metal products, except machinery

Th e im por t of Fa br ica ted m eta l p rodu cts , excep t m a ch in ery

h a s grown fa s ter th a n th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion a n d expor t . Th e growth in th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion h a s been declin in g du r in g 2005-06 to 2008-09. However, th e growth of th e im por t has in crea sed t ill 2007-08 (Table 2 0 ). Th e im por t from Ch in a du r in g th is per iod h a s in crea s ed by 3805% over th e ba s e of 2005-06. The correla tion be tw een im ports an d the d om es tic prod uction ind ica tes s om e of th e nega tive im pact of the im port from Ch in a on d om es tic prod uction of th is sector.

The main imported items, in terms of value, from China are Boilers, Steel Stru ctu res , Cock (Fa u cets ), Cylin ders , Ra zor Bla des / Sa fety Bla des , Tin Con ta in ers a n d Sta m pin gs & Forgin gs . Th e item s wh ere th e im por ts from Ch in a a re in crea s in g rep la cin g th e im por ts from oth er cou n tr ies a re Boilers, Tin Con ta in ers , Ra zor Bla des / Sa fety Bla des , Cylin ders , Steel Stru ctu res , An d Cock (Faucets).

Table 20. Manufacture of Fabricated metal products, except machinery

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index Chinese Imports

2004-05

100 100 100 IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G

Index Growth Share

2005-06

120.0 152.0 122.6 20.0 52.0 22.6 100.0 0.4

2006-07

139.0 189.1 146.6 15.9 24.4 19.6 9466.4 9366.4 0.5

2007-08

149.8 468.3 178.3 7.7 147.7 21.6 852.3 -91.0 2.3

2008-09

147.8 608.9 191.9 -1.3 30.0 7.6 3905.6 358.2 2.3

2009-10

174.7 694.8 157.1 18.2 14.1 -18.1 4030.1 3.2 1.8

2010-11

191.9 2055.9 159.3 9.8 195.9 1.4 2264.9 -43.8 1.2

Manufacture of Machinery and equipment

The IIP for Ma ch in ery a n d equ ipm en t h a s grown con s is ten t ly a t a rou n d 20 % per yea r s in ce 2004-05 , excep t 2008-09 (Table 21 ). Th e expor ts h a ve a ls o grown a t rela t ively h igh er ra te th a n IIP du r in g th e s a m e per iod , excep t a

Pa g e | 22

n ega t ive growth in both th e s ectors (im por ts & expor ts ) in 2009 -10 . Th e Ch in es e In dex h a s grown by 5204% s in ce 2005-06 . Th e growth of th e Ch in es e im por ts h a s declin ed over th e t im e t ill 2009-10 wh ich h a s s u rged by 250.7% in 2010-11.

Table 21. Manufacture of Machinery and equipment

Years IIP Index


2004-05

100 100 100 IIP Gr.

IMP Gr. EX G Index Growth Share

2005-06

124.1 151.6 117.6 24.1 51.6 17.6 100.0 6.1

2006-07

153.0 235.0 136.1 23.3 55.0 15.7 1590.3 1490.3 6.3

2007-08

209.9 294.0 164.8 37.2 25.1 21.1 1859.2 16.9 6.5

2008-09

196.1 448.9 237.9 -6.6 52.7 44.3 1546.4 -16.8 6.9

2009-10

221.8 344.7 181.7 13.1 -23.2 -23.6 1512.6 -2.2 8.4

2010-11

274.9 458.1 242.1 23.9 32.9 33.2 5304.0 250.7 8.0

Th e item s im por ted from Ch in a wh ich ca r ry va lu e of m ore th a n Rs . 10000 la cs in 2010-11 a re Text ile Ma ch in ery, Air Con d it ion er (Pa cka ged), Pr in t in g Ma ch in ery, Air Con d it ion er (Room ), Bea r in gs (Ba ll/ Roller ), Ma ch in e Tools , Con s tru ct ion Ma ch in e/ Equ ipm en t , Tu rb in es & Acces s or ies , Air & Ga s Com pres s ors , Wa s h in g Ma ch in es , Lifts / Eleva tors & Com pon en ts th ereof, Pu m ps (in clu d in g power d r iven pu m ps ), Sola r Power Sys tem s , En gin es In cl. In tern a l Com bu s t ion a n d Dies el En gin e, Fa n s , Agr icu ltu ra l Ma ch in ery, Pla s t ic Ma ch in ery In cl. Mou ld in g Ma ch in ery, Cra n es , and Chillers. Th e in crea s in g imports of these items probably impacting negatively the domestic production.

Th e im por t from Ch in a is rep la cin g th e im por t from oth er cou n tr ies in th e item s s u ch a s Fa n s , Air Con d it ion er (Room ), Hea t Exch a n gers , Packaging Ma ch in ery, Air Con d it ion er (Pa cka ged), Ch illers , E lectr ic Weld in g Ma ch in es , Cra n es , Tu rb in es & Acces s or ies , Lifts / Eleva tors & Com pon en ts th ereof, Pr in t in g Ma ch in ery, Sola r Power Sys tem s , Air & Ga s Com pres s ors , Text ile Mach in ery, In du s tr ia l Ch a in s , Agr icu ltu ra l Ma ch in ery, Con s tru ct ion , a n d Machine/Equipment.

Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery

The IIP h a s grown by 263% in 2010-11 com pa red to expor t in dex by 193% a n d im por t in dex by 12 2% over th e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table 22 ). However th e growth of dom es t ic p rodu ct ion a fter 2007-08 h a s n ot been very im pres s ive

Pa g e | 23

a n d d ipped to -11 .6 % in 2009-10 . Th e growth of th e Ch in es e im por t h a s increased in past two years.

Ma in item s im por ted from Ch in a a re Com pu ters , Com pu ter Per iph era ls , Ca lcu la tors a n d Pr in ters . Com pu ters a n d ca lcu la tors a re in crea s in gly s ou rced from the China compared to other countries.

Table 22. Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery


Chinese Imports

2004-05

100 100 100 IIP Gr. IMP Gr.


2005-06

123.0 146.3 147.9 23.0 46.3 47.9 100.0 6.7

2006-07

136.6 212.1 172.8 11.1 45.0 16.8 90.7 -9.3 3.9

2007-08

365.9 192.6 170.5 167.9 -9.2 -1.3 138.6 52.8 4.2

2008-09

382.4 169.0 212.0 4.5 -12.3 24.3 115.3 -16.8 2.7

2009-10

338.0 196.5 241.4 -11.6 16.3 13.9 159.7 38.6 3.5

2010-11

363.0 222.8 293.5 7.4 13.4 21.6 206.9 29.6 3.5

Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus

Th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion of th e electr ic m a ch in ery a n d a ppa ra tu s h a s in crea s ed by 263% in 2010-1 1 com pa red to exp or t by 18 2 a n d im por t by 1 71 % over th e ba s e of 2004-05 . Th e growth of th e im por ts h owever , h a s been h igh er in th os e yea rs wh ere th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion growth h a s been low, except 2009-10 when the growth of the import, export and domestic production h a s been n ega t ive. Th e growth of im port from Ch in a h a s been very h igh du r in g three years, 2005-06 to 2008-09, however, declined in 2009-10.

Table 23. Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus

Years

IIP Index


2004-05

100.0 100.0 100.0 IIP Gr.

IMP Gr.


2005-06

123.0 593.9 149.8 23.0 493.9 49.8 100.0 2.5

2006-07

136.6 242.3 244.1 11.1 -59.2 63.0 239.8 139.8 2.5

2007-08

365.9 241.9 246.7 167.9 -0.2 1.1 537.0 124.0 3.4

2008-09

382.4 313.1 337.9 4.5 29.4 37.0 1066.4 98.6 3.6

2009-10

338.0 226.4 267.1 -11.6 -27.7 -21.0 562.6 -47.2 2.9

2010-11

363.0 271.4 282.7 7.4 19.9 5.9 641.2 14.0 2.4

Ma in item s im por ted , in term s of va lu e, from Ch in a a re Insulated Ca b les / Wires a ll Kin d , Stabilisers, Electr ic Motors Ph a s e-I, Graphite

Pa g e | 24

Electrodes/Anodes, Tra n s form ers (Sm a ll), Magnets, Generator/Alternator, UPS/Inverter/Converter, Weld in g Rods , Air Brea k Switch es / Circu it Breakers, DC Motors , Electr ic Motors (Excl.Ph a s e-I), Flu ores cen t Tu bes , Electr ica l Switch boa rd , Ba t tery Ch a rger , In ca n des cen t La m p, Rela ys , Fu s es An d Switch gea rs , Fib re Op t ic Ca b le, Tra n s form ers (P.D.T & Specia l Type), a n d Cable, Rubber Insulated.

Th e item s in crea s in gly s ou rced from Ch in a a re Flu ores cen t Tu bes , Ba t tery Ch a rger , Ma gn ets , Fib re Op t ic Ca b le, Electr ic Motors Ph a s e-I, Incandescent Lamp, Insulated Cables/Wires all Kind, UPS/Inverter/Converter, Transformers (Sm a ll), DC Motors , Air Brea k Switch es / Circu it , Brea kers , Gen era tor / Altern a tor , Sta b ilis ers , Rela ys , Fu s es An d Switch gea rs , Tra n s form ers (P.D.T & Specia l Type), Electr ic Motors (Excl.Ph a s e-I), An d Electrical Switchboard.

Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment

Th e growth of IIP for ra d io, televis ion a n d com m u n ica t ion equ ipment h a s declin ed over th e yea rs (Table 24 ). Th e expor t growth has been bet ter excep t in 2005-06 a n d 2009-10 . Th e im por t is growin g a t m ore th a n 35% a vera ge excep t a d ip in 2009-10 . Th e Ch in es e In dex has grown to a rela t ively h igh er level in past six years, although the growth has moderated over the years.

Th e s h a re of im por t of ra d io, televis ion a n d com m u n ica t ion equ ip in th e tota l th e Ch in es e im por t h a ve im proved con s idera b ly from ju s t 3 .1% in 2005-06 to 16 .5 % in 2010-11 . Th is in d ica tes th a t th e growth of th e im por t of ra d io, televis ion a n d com m u n ica t ion equ ip from Ch in a h a s been m u ch h igh er th a n the total imports growth from Chinese.

Table 24. Manufacture of radio, television and communication equip


IIP Gr. IMP Gr.


2004-05


2005-06

122.1 132.7 98.8 22.1 32.7 -1.2 100.0 3.1

2006-07

238.1 180.3 139.5 94.9 35.9 41.2 221.1 121.1 3.6

2007-08

418.9 257.1 181.4 75.9 42.6 30.0 514.3 132.6 8.5

2008-09

492.0 405.2 1211.9 17.5 57.6 567.9 717.3 39.5 16.5

2009-10

542.5 370.4 895.3 10.3 -8.6 -26.1 801.2 11.7 18.1

2010-11

616.0 467.1 1641.5 13.5 26.1 83.3 1014.2 26.6 16.5

Pa g e | 25

Main im por ted item s from Ch in a a re Teleph on e In s t ru m en ts In clu d in g

Mobile Ph on e a n d Acces s or ies , IC Ch ips & Tra n s is tors , Power Ca pa citors , Printed Circuit Board/Plate, and Colour TV Picture Tubes.

Manufacture of medical precision and optical instruments

The IIP h a s grown ju s t by 19% in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table 25 ). Th e expor t a lth ou gh is s h r in k in g du r in g pa s t two yea rs , wh ile im por t h a s grown well du r in g pa s t s even yea rs excep t 2008-09 . Th e Chinese In dex on oth er h a n d is growin g a t m u ch fa s ter ra te th a n Im por t In dex a n d IIP. Th is s ign a ls th a t th e dom es t ic dem a n d of th e p rodu ct is fu lfilled by th e ch ea p import from China.

Ma in im por ted items , in term s of va lu e, a re Med ica l a n d Su rgica l Equ ipm en t (excep t x-ra y), Clock / Wa tch / Tim ep iece Movem en t , Wa tch es , Len s of All Kinds, and Syringes

Table 25 Manufacture of medical precision and optical instruments

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G Chinese Imports

2004-05


2005-06

110.2 160.9 96.3 10.2 60.9 -3.7 100.0 0.3

2006-07

115.0 255.3 106.1 4.3 58.7 10.1 138.1 38.1 0.3

2007-08

121.6 338.9 106.2 5.8 32.8 0.1 367.9 166.4 0.3

2008-09

120.1 307.1 125.2 -1.2 -9.4 17.8 521.1 41.7 0.3

2009-10

110.0 350.3 122.5 -8.4 14.1 -2.1 542.4 4.1 0.4

2010-11

119.1 685.6 47.0 8.3 95.7 -61.6 654.5 20.7 0.3

Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers

There is a s u rge in th e im por t of th e m otor veh icles , t ra ilers a n d s em i-t ra ilers in th e cou n try con s is ten t ly during pa s t s even yea rs (Table 26 ). Th e im por ts a re growin g a lon g with th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion of th is in du s try s u b -group, except in 2008-09.

Th e im por t from Ch in a h a s been very h igh du r in g 2006-08 a n d 2010-11. Its share in total Chinese import has also doubled in past six years.

Pa g e | 26

Main im por ted item s , in term s of va lu e, from Ch in a a re Au to An cilla ry &

Pa r ts , Gea r Boxes a n d Utility/ Mu lt i-Purpose Vehicles. Th e Au to An cilla ry & Parts are increasingly been imported from China.

Table 26. Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index


2004-05


2005-06

113.9 450.8 118.2 13.9 350.8 18.2 100.0 0.4

2006-07

134.3 737.5 128.7 17.9 63.6 9.0 261.2 161.2 0.7

2007-08

147.3 1458.1 160.1 9.7 97.7 24.4 464.4 77.8 0.6

2008-09

132.1 2054.9 444.7 -10.3 40.9 177.7 485.2 4.5 0.6

2009-10

153.4 2362.0 488.6 16.2 14.9 9.9 433.5 -10.6 0.7

2010-11

198.5 3692.0 909.0 29.4 56.3 86.1 1150.0 165.3 0.8

Manufacture of other transport equipments

Th e im por t of th e oth er t ra n s por t equ ipm en t has in crea s ed by 2679% in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2004-05, com pa red to IIP in crea s ed by 105 % a n d expor t by 455% (Table 27 ). Th e im por t a n d th e expor t growth of th e t ra n s por t equ ipm en t is m ovin g m ore or les s in oppos ite d irect ion to the IIP du r in g pa s t seven years. However, there are positive correlation between import growth and th e expor t growth of th e t ra n s por t equ ipm en ts . Th is in d ica tes th a t eith er th ere a re a la g between dom es t ic p rodu ct ion a n d t ra de or th e im por t is u s ed a s a n in pu t in th e expor t . Growth of im por t of oth er t ra n s por t equ ipm en ts from China has been very high during 2007-08, and 2010-11.

Table 27. Manufacture of other transport equipment

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G Chinese Imports

2004-05


2005-06

105.6 345.8 158.4 5.6 245.8 58.4 100.0 1.4

2006-07

120.3 750.3 178.8 14.0 117.0 12.9 499.3 399.3 1.3

2007-08

123.1 1155.0 211.2 2.3 53.9 18.1 3558.3 612.6 1.8

2008-09

127.2 1778.9 433.7 3.3 54.0 105.4 4903.3 37.8 1.4

2009-10

174.5 1611.5 351.5 37.2 -9.4 -19.0 956.0 -80.5 1.9

2010-11

205.9 2779.6 555.2 18.0 72.5 58.0 2378.1 148.7 3.3

Th e s h a re of th e Ch in es e im por t of oth er t ra n s por t equ ipm en ts in tota l Ch in es e im por ts h a ve dou b led in pa s t s ix yea rs . Ma in item s im por ted from Ch in a a re Sh ip Bu ild in g & Repa irs , Pa r ts

Bicycle, Bicycles , Scooter a n d

Pa g e | 27

Mopeds a n d Motor Cycles . Ch in a is becom in g a n im por ta n t s ou rce of th e imports for Bicycles , Pa r ts

Bicycle, Motor Cycles a n d Sh ip Bu ild in g &

Repairs.

Manufacturing of furniture

The IIP for fu rn itu re h a s grown u p by 42% in 2010-11 , wh ile expor t h a s been declining a fter growin g by 67% in 2008-09 over ba s e of 2004-05 (Table 28). Th e im por t growth is m ovin g togeth er with th e dom es t ic p rodu ct ion growth . Th e growth of th e im por t from Ch in a is a ls o m ovin g a lon g th e growth of Import Index.

Ma in item s of im por t , in term s of va lu e, from Ch in a a re Wood Fu rn itu re, Pen s of All Kin d , Tooth Bru s h , a n d Gem s a n d J ewellery. Wood fu rn itu re is increasingly sourced from China.

Table 28. Manufacturing of furniture


IIP Gr. IMP Gr.


2004-05


2005-06

106.8 111.9 102.8 6.8 11.9 2.8 100.0 0.4 2006-07

106.1 111.8 108.6 -0.6 -0.1 5.7 107.3 7.3 0.4 2007-08

120.9 131.3 92.2 14.0 17.5 -15.1 147.6 37.5 0.4 2008-09

131.4 144.1 167.2 8.7 9.8 81.3 152.3 3.2 0.3 2009-10

134.8 122.3 138.2 2.6 -15.1 -17.3 145.7 -4.4 0.4 2010-11

142.2 137.5 108.1 5.4 12.4 -21.8 156.8 7.6 0.4

CONCLUSION

The trends in imports to India shows a surge in cheap Chinese imports of m a n u fa ctu r in g goods to In d ia , a ccu m u la t ion in In d ia s t ra de deficit with Ch in a a n d r is in g requ es t for in t rodu cin g a n t i du m pin g m ea s u res a ga in s t Ch in es e im por ts poin ts th e n eed to ch eck th e p rofile of im por ts from Ch in a a n d its rela t ion with ou r dom es t ic m a n u fa ctu r in g p rodu ct ion s t ru ctu re. Th e m a jor qu es t ion of th is res ea rch s tu dy is : How tren ds in im ports from Ch in a a re associated with domestic manufacturing production in India?

A con corda n ce between ITC (HS) Code for th e im por ts a n d NIC cla s s ifica t ion of in du s tr ies a t 5 d igit level is developed for la s t 7 yea rs for 26 8 item s of IIP a n d im por ts , a n d s epa ra tely with im por ts from Ch in a . Th e in d ices for th e im por t , IIP (268 item s ) a n d in du s try s u bgrou ps h a ve been con s tru cted . The export index is taken from an earlier Study by Singhi, M.C. 2011.

Pa g e | 28

Th e in d ices of IIP (2 68 item s ), Im por t for a ll cou n tr ies (Im por t in dex from

now) and Export have grown by 107.8 %, 1773.1 %, and 143.4% respectively in 2010-11 over th e ba s e of 2 004-05 . Th e Ch in es e in dex for s a m e item s h a s grown by 4618 .4% in 2010-11 over th e ba s e 2005-06 , wh ich is m u ch h igh er th a n th e im por t in dex. Th e s h a re of th e im por ts of 268 item s from Ch in a in tota l im por ts from Ch in a to In d ia h a s ju m ped to 41 .3% in 2010-11 from 26 .3% in 2005-06.

Th ere a re en ou gh eviden ce to s u s pect th a t im por ts to In d ia from oth er th a n Ch in a a re n ow in crea s in gly been rep la ced by ch ea p Ch in es e im por ts . Th erefore th e im por ts to In d ia a re in crea s in g con cen tra ted with Ch in a . Broa d ly the Basic Goods and the Intermediate Goods sectors are seems to be negatively a ffected from th e ch ea p Ch in es e im por ts a lon g with s om e item s in th e Ca p ita l goods and the Consumer Goods sectors.

Th e la rges t im por ts from Ch in a a re n ot iced in in du s try s u b -grou p of ra d io, televis ion a n d com m u n ica t ion equ ipm en t , followed by Ma ch in ery a n d equ ipm en t , office a ccou n t in g a n d com pu tin g m a ch in ery , oth er t ra n s por t equ ipm en t , elect r ica l m a ch in ery a n d a ppa ra tu s , Ba s ic Meta ls , Fa b r ica ted meta l p rodu cts , excep t m a ch in ery , Ch em ica l a n d ch em ica l p rodu cts , m otor vehicles, trailers and semi-tra ilers , a n d ru bber a n d p la s t ic p rodu cts .

***

Pa g e | 29

Annexure

Table 29. Share in Total Imports

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-

11

IIP (268) 20.0

23.0

23.6

26.5

27.6

25.3

23.0

Basic 3.1

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.6

3.1

2.9

Capital 9.4

11.6

11.7

13.3

11.8

10.7

8.8

Intermediate 4.3

4.2

4.5

4.7

5.1

4.7

4.7

Consumer 3.2

3.5

4.0

5.3

7.1

6.8

6.5

Consumer NON 0.7

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.5

Consumer Durable

2.5

2.8

3.3

4.6

6.5

6.1

6.0

Pa g e | 30

Table 30. Share of imports from China in Total Imports to India

NIC-5d Item group

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

2008-

09 2009-

10 2010-

11 26915

H.T.Insulators 0.10

85.00

86.30

93.94

30.15

98.17

35921

Bicycles 95.25

93.90

91.00

94.22

95.18

95.06

25204

Pvc/Plastic Suitcases 65.66

79.24

86.04

93.14

93.54

94.07

35923

Parts - Bicycle 82.50

89.66

92.96

88.34

92.11

94.03

17296

Terry Towel 82.57

67.98

46.65

76.40

83.22

90.09

28133

Boilers 24.02

54.84

86.24

93.17

92.01

88.36

34300

Auto Ancillary & Parts 61.73

80.45

80.49

80.70

82.81

82.77

19201

Footwear except leather 76.39

85.74

89.28

84.47

76.88

82.23

30003

Calculators 69.58

38.84

57.84

63.79

80.37

80.43

15209

Glucose(powder&liquid) 1.56

60.11

66.05

30.42

35.29

79.68

25119

Rubber Flaps 61.99

45.86

44.08

42.39

96.14

79.63

31503

Fluorescent Tubes 40.86

52.85

58.99

73.59

80.90

78.07

19201

Leather Shoes 57.18

55.10

54.84

55.24

59.60

74.48

29303

Fans 66.06

65.53

74.68

63.60

74.29

73.96

31109

Battery Charger 59.50

0.14

61.26

87.98

78.96

72.25

25111

Tyre, Truck/Bus 78.06

77.80

88.94

80.88

78.52

71.74

29308

Mixers & Grinders 43.66

39.36

66.41

68.19

74.58

68.72

26921

Refractory Bricks 46.44

64.67

59.41

55.11

69.61

68.49

25113

Tube, Cycle/Rickshaw 21.19

71.10

99.78

66.09

25113

Tyre, Cycle/Rickshaw 16.64

26.96

37.49

45.15

6.40

65.50

30006

Computers 33.81

32.63

36.45

43.52

62.25

65.47

24117

Sodium Hydrosulphate/Sodium Hydrosulphite 32.04

54.16

31.19

58.23

67.03

64.20

25111

Tube, Truck 80.00

94.91

94.62

98.83

97.26

60.91

32204

Telephone Instruments Including Mobile Phone And Accessories 13.97

20.23

41.41

55.46

61.81

59.66

36101

Wood Furniture 38.96

43.78

48.89

47.22

53.41

59.15

29192

Air Conditioner (Room) 48.03

42.88

62.34

53.99

54.72

57.99

26101

Glass Sheet 82.23

79.54

74.15

61.70

53.45

57.86

24232

Vitamins 47.23

57.42

55.52

62.70

58.46

57.72

26101

Toughened Glass 17.12

36.54

34.87

37.84

41.31

57.40

26911

Porcelain And Ceramic Sanitary Wares 43.37

52.95

53.74

57.74

63.59

55.63

32309

Amplifier 42.24

45.70

39.97

39.91

42.37

55.37

29198

Heat Exchangers 8.97

20.81

41.71

19.87

9.07

55.18

26993

Grinding Wheels 15.45

39.53

35.00

26.23

1.62

54.35

29195

Packaging Machinery 14.89

9.36

39.68

37.19

27.01

54.35

19122

Leather Bags, Wallets, Purses 38.11

34.66

33.27

29.15

53.63

53.85

25111

Tyre, Motor Cycle 41.42

29.83

19.87

29.37

33.13

53.41

28997

Pressure Cooker 57.37

39.37

20.64

58.69

12.75

52.85

Pa g e | 31

26102

Fibre Glass 27.03

34.73

48.56

53.45

54.50

50.38

29192

Air Conditioner (Packaged) 37.91

40.50

54.42

44.97

45.88

49.24

27310

C.I. Castings 1.00

33.32

66.81

46.14

93.08

48.07

24114

Dyes 43.60

41.95

44.50

37.86

43.25

47.20

35911

Motor Cycles 6.66

16.57

90.74

83.02

12.99

46.68

31904

Magnets 32.23

32.57

36.09

30.88

42.88

45.88

29306

Chillers 15.53

27.67

22.38

18.19

26.87

44.91

29199

Electric Welding Machines 6.24

27.92

17.15

34.06

49.48

44.31

31300

Fibre Optic Cable 51.72

38.24

2.65

47.96

57.99

43.60

18104

Leather Garments 18.66

28.43

23.40

26.36

62.77

43.17

20211

Plywood 42.97

49.94

39.48

37.34

33.73

43.03

28129

Tin Containers 0.33

69.29

11.18

57.02

4.04

42.67

31103

Electric Motors Phase-I 20.91

23.80

30.68

31.88

31.01

42.50

36997

Tooth Brush 77.14

85.44

73.15

40.11

42.80

41.32

29308

Washing Machines 12.63

16.99

17.51

20.94

27.19

40.50

33130

Cooling Towers 23.91

21.95

19.35

60.68

41.82

40.21

31908

Welding Rods 4.13

11.65

9.48

19.68

28.77

39.76

27203

Aluminium Foils 20.77

34.21

46.63

57.91

29.95

39.46

18101

Apparels 17.85

28.20

23.79

25.36

24.11

39.29

31501

Incandescent Lamp 24.96

24.05

26.95

25.38

31.28

38.57

24243

Whitening Agents 32.31

32.39

32.73

30.81

38.55

38.24

30007

Printers 17.86

7.81

34.25

10.41

4.31

37.83

30007

Computer Peripherals 36.57

19.60

37.78

33.30

24.44

37.53

32102

Power Capacitors 25.00

24.52

34.21

15.01

31.18

37.16

31908

Graphite Electrodes/Anodes

10.06

23.04

29.65

59.78

34.15

37.15

29151

Cranes 10.86

26.05

35.62

50.76

12.44

37.14

36934

Sports Goods, Rubber 13.28

39.34

43.51

51.54

48.07

37.09

28931

Razor Blades/Safety Blades

13.21

15.42

22.14

11.99

38.30

36.88

29119

Turbines & Accessories 12.93

11.71

20.63

32.40

58.69

36.71

36991

Pens of All Kind 30.24

37.43

39.23

35.68

36.28

36.09

27203

Aluminium wires & extrusions 2.83

8.73

45.86

63.75

42.51

35.50

29151

Lifts/Elevators & Components thereof 15.77

16.52

30.15

35.03

48.90

35.45

26922

Magnesite, Dead Burnt 58.53

59.31

47.64

39.99

25.79

34.78

28121

Cylinders 21.61

28.12

23.64

43.94

54.05

34.45

29294

Printing Machinery 6.53

9.94

19.55

25.10

26.78

34.41

26933

Glazed Tiles /Ceramic Tiles 66.28

74.33

79.45

76.35

51.98

34.37

35119

Ship Building & Repairs 3.96

3.67

7.88

6.39

12.51

34.10

25111

Tyre, Car/Cab 26.85

37.25

35.86

34.16

38.47

33.22

21015

Straw And Paper Boards of All Kinds 14.78

19.15

27.14

24.67

27.60

33.03

25202

Plastic Film Excl. Bopp Film 8.36

16.87

12.70

10.89

12.40

31.68

Pa g e | 32

25202

Polythene Bags Incl. Hdpe & Ldpe Bags 1.42

86.31

62.10

33.04

20.12

31.55

31200

Insulated Cables/Wires all Kind 25.30

25.45

26.44

38.89

33.54

30.84

29305

Solar Power Systems 7.84

6.12

5.78

6.61

13.69

30.30

29121

Air & Gas Compressors 12.08

16.02

7.76

8.36

29.16

30.18

29262

Textile Machinery 16.59

19.13

19.01

30.67

36.01

30.16

27203

Aluminium Sheets/Plates 20.83

26.78

38.36

38.97

28.08

29.97

35912

Scooter and Mopeds 38.08

83.69

81.93

87.76

55.96

29.64

29131

Industrial Chains 21.31

29.78

22.96

22.46

30.75

28.61

29211

Agricultural Machinery 19.86

15.13

18.65

20.92

45.20

28.04

31104

UPS/Inverter/Converter 20.53

13.02

27.54

25.09

28.79

27.96

29119

Construction Machine/Equipment 3.44

11.87

13.43

18.38

23.11

27.54

29303

Industrial Blowers 28.55

1.61

23.49

14.84

37.18

26.80

28112

Steel Structures 26.56

31.21

59.09

38.25

54.21

26.71

29191

Forklift 2.76

4.72

9.44

25.36

19.47

26.57

20211

Wood Veneer 4.31

9.80

10.12

7.19

15.11

26.51

31102

Transformers (Small) 52.29

63.26

53.39

59.99

55.54

26.28

27203

Aluminium Tubes/Pipes 15.51

30.12

29.70

35.46

34.73

26.07

26103

Glass Bottles 13.99

21.90

22.37

20.00

21.37

25.74

15135

Squashes, Jams, Jellies, Ketchups,Etc. 31.80

39.22

54.06

36.12

38.54

25.73

29244

Loaders 40.12

67.90

77.54

9.42

10.97

25.50

15331

Cattle and Poultry Feed 20.67

16.10

20.88

22.14

23.09

24.78

24111

Aniline 16.81

9.69

60.97

22.96

28.34

24.60

29131

Bearings (Ball/Roller) 10.14

11.97

15.07

15.37

20.20

24.33

25202

HDPE Woven Sacks 15.39

24.42

34.13

35.88

27.36

24.14

31103

DC Motors 9.65

18.27

15.27

15.20

21.12

23.90

24219

Rubber Chemical 19.44

24.47

28.42

25.85

25.03

23.88

25209

Plastic Sheets 28.85

23.18

15.67

18.74

16.08

23.83

29306

Refrigerators 8.68

6.86

13.44

17.68

28.40

23.78

31200

Air Break Switches / Circuit Breakers 24.70

23.99

33.28

30.85

20.19

23.08

24295

Adhesives 10.24

9.19

0.00

0.00

19.61

22.53

31901

Generator/Alternator 2.16

13.71

51.95

26.70

37.76

21.34

26960

Marble Tiles/Slabs 7.79

6.10

17.09

20.91

31.93

20.58

25192

Rubber Transmission And V Belts 6.09

8.68

9.02

17.55

17.79

19.62

29254

Sugar Machinery 0.56

0.75

0.38

2.46

1.36

19.56

28994

Cock (Faucets) 4.35

7.35

7.25

10.82

16.79

18.99

23109

Carbon Black 3.70

15.50

14.49

19.41

20.66

18.76

31901

Stabilisers 12.55

13.70

18.52

23.23

21.40

18.57

32101

Colour TV Picture Tubes 8.89

16.80

22.90

17.85

17.80

18.25

Steel 4.93

11.53

16.08

16.97

9.09

18.12

Pa g e | 33

33201

Lens of All Kinds 7.85

7.44

5.04

16.00

14.25

17.81

33112

Syringes 6.52

0.66

1.30

12.31

2.63

17.17

32105

IC Chips & Transistors 12.36

8.79

13.14

17.18

21.74

17.14

21098

Computer Stationery 1.69

3.16

6.28

8.67

12.39

16.03

19129

Leather Gloves 7.98

29.12

34.64

23.50

13.97

15.70

25193

Condoms 1.08

2.67

0.05

22.58

32.00

15.69

26942

Cement All Kinds 19.98

34.82

6.47

7.84

24.35

15.39

16003

Cigarettes 12.49

0.05

6.05

5.34

5.29

15.32

15134

Fruit Juices 13.41

20.75

31.05

9.71

12.06

14.80

25202

Plastic Bottles 21.77

15.50

13.00

9.39

11.42

14.54

29121

Pumps (including power driven pumps) 7.31

6.74

9.64

14.05

14.98

14.50

32109

Printed Circuit Board/Plate 7.03

9.01

11.39

11.75

13.61

14.41

29229

Machine Tools 5.52

7.60

10.61

9.71

12.79

14.40

31103

Relays, Fuses And Switchgears 10.95

8.54

15.21

17.91

14.52

14.38

31102

Transformers (P.D.T & Special Type) 2.42

22.08

36.11

31.59

10.36

14.25

25209

PVC Pipes and Tubes 3.24

8.86

28.83

18.09

12.80

14.13

29142

Furnaces 7.92

6.35

11.51

19.19

22.20

14.12

21022

Corrugated and Other Paper Boxes 22.17

16.73

11.11

16.90

2.74

14.02

31103

Electric Motors(Excl.Phase-I) 2.90

6.36

12.64

11.78

13.51

13.43

33122

Electric meter of all kinds 29.80

31.97

17.01

42.05

32.23

13.40

33122

Water meter of all kinds 29.80

31.97

17.01

42.05

32.23

13.40

33301

Clock/Watch/Timepiece Movement 18.97

20.01

17.09

13.79

24.88

12.76

29258

Food Processing Machinery 5.28

5.17

5.16

10.73

13.77

12.67

25191

Hose Pipe 0.97

4.21

79.36

45.30

18.52

12.65

29291

Plastic Machinery Incl. Moulding Machinery 17.68

20.26

26.79

19.43

12.00

12.50

24232

Antibiotics & It's Preparations 5.49

20.60

13.76

7.69

4.23

12.33

29251

Dairy Machinery 0.01

4.08

3.93

1.58

2.96

11.69

27203

Aluminium 9.36

10.34

16.57

17.34

11.72

11.63

24112

Sulphuric Acid, Incl. Oleum 0.00

0.00

0.38

0.03

1.03

11.29

29299

Driers 3.47

0.06

18.52

0.02

0.00

11.26

24223

Printing Ink 21.54

23.14

29.77

18.56

31.24

10.95

17297

Elastic Tape 1.34

7.25

25.62

41.72

22.74

10.81

24241

Toilet Soap 5.39

6.55

3.09

2.48

1.60

10.74

27201

Copper and Copper Products 4.48

6.91

7.00

7.47

8.43

10.48

33112

Medical and Surgical Equipment (except x-ray) 3.62

4.27

5.13

6.76

7.14

10.10

24248

Agarbattis and Dhoop 17.60

12.43

13.15

16.44

21.37

9.88

33301

Watches 0.88

1.24

12.00

10.35

14.25

9.39

Pa g e | 34

29211

Tractors (complete) 24.33

53.09

17.36

7.33

8.84

8.93

31200

Electrical Switchboard 3.04

14.27

14.85

11.78

18.38

8.19

24297

Leather Finishing Chemicals & Auxiliaries 0.00

0.00

8.55

19.17

0.01

7.47

28910

Stampings & Forgings 2.02

5.79

2.71

6.19

1.76

7.01

24241

Washing Soap 3.35

2.68

2.91

4.13

6.61

6.82

34300

Gear Boxes 3.99

6.68

4.40

3.41

4.17

6.73

29112

Engines Incl. Internal Combustion and Diesel Engine 2.58

4.44

3.19

4.77

5.92

6.48

22110

Books 1.68

3.04

4.12

9.22

7.75

6.30

33121

Valve 4.04

4.02

1.75

2.14

0.28

6.19

15531

Beer 0.01

0.35

1.12

1.46

1.81

6.00

29242

Drilling Equipment 3.57

3.68

2.58

9.62

7.40

5.97

24222

Paints of All Kinds 1.67

3.10

5.19

6.47

5.98

4.95

29249

Mining Equipment 2.51

0.66

27.07

41.43

6.80

4.79

24241

Synthetic Detergents 1.05

0.28

2.74

2.78

1.64

4.40

21012

Writing & Printing Paper 1.23

0.99

1.49

1.28

2.04

4.10

15519

Indust. Alcohol(Rectified/Denatured Spirit) 7.01

7.31

5.26

4.50

3.86

4.02

24134

Synthetic Rubber 5.52

2.18

2.36

1.50

1.91

3.77

24132

PVC Resins 11.04

46.28

45.40

17.21

10.82

3.46

27201

Wires (Copper) 1.32

1.77

2.59

3.11

3.04

3.39

20213

Particle Boards 5.36

8.63

4.51

3.08

2.03

3.25

24111

Dissolved Acetylene Gas 0.11

0.07

1.02

0.00

5.71

2.97

24301

Viscose Staple Fibre 10.89

11.42

21.89

3.09

44.95

2.97

21014

Craft Paper(Kraft Paper) 1.48

1.99

3.02

3.11

2.11

2.83

16006

Zarda/ Chewing Tobacco 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2.63

31300

Cable, Rubber Insulated 0.11

0.60

1.84

28.62

10.75

2.44

24111

Oxygen 0.00

0.00

0.14

0.00

0.49

2.38

19119

Tanned or Chrome Skins and Leathers 2.73

2.83

2.31

1.50

1.50

2.36

34101

Commercial Vehicles 13.29

16.23

26.37

11.72

8.43

2.25

15433

Instant Food Mixes (Ready to eat) 1.24

0.39

0.07

12.82

0.80

2.17

21013

Newsprint 0.12

15.85

14.72

16.71

10.12

2.07

25111

Tyre, Tractor Front 85.02

85.32

15.51

30.81

2.07

15532

Indian made Foreign Liquor

0.04

28.68

0.01

0.39

0.12

1.99

24118

Glycerine 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.83

15412

Biscuits 2.12

5.93

15.70

5.71

1.61

1.68

17223

Woollen Carpets 2.64

0.00

23.24

28.21

0.11

1.65

15541

Aerated Waters & Soft Drinks 3.52

0.65

1.97

0.00

0.26

1.59

34104

Utility/Multi-Purpose Vehicles 0.69

2.33

2.59

3.17

0.90

1.58

Pa g e | 35

25111

Tyre, Tractor, Rear 20.63

5.27

0.88

18.71

3.08

1.51

24246

Tooth Paste 0.09

2.70

3.63

0.51

0.05

1.47

15494

Malted Foods 0.21

0.75

1.67

1.66

3.53

1.47

24118

Fatty Acid 1.44

1.46

0.66

0.54

2.01

1.22

15432

Chocolate 3.68

10.06

16.52

3.93

0.62

0.87

36911

Gems And Jewellery 0.49

0.29

0.15

0.39

0.79

0.86

19201

Shoe Uppers (Leather) 6.05

41.24

30.27

61.27

0.00

0.81

21012

Pulp Rayon Grade 2.82

4.32

0.30

0.01

1.28

0.80

15321

Starch 0.02

1.61

4.09

0.39

0.24

0.73

24112

Phosphoric Acid 0.26

0.26

0.25

0.72

0.26

0.63

15311

Bran 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.57

Petrolium Product 1.43

2.04

1.50

1.17

0.39

0.57

33111

X-ray equipment 1.26

0.13

0.21

0.11

0.33

0.42

24233

Ayurvedic Medicaments 2.00

0.45

0.88

1.14

0.12

0.25

26960

Granites 0.97

0.81

0.00

3.11

0.68

0.20

15493

Cashew Kernels 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.20

34103

Passenger Cars 0.04

0.00

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.13

24245

Tooth Powder 0.00

0.00

0.05

0.00

0.13

0.06

28991

Fasteners (Excl. Zip-Fastener) 1.70

0.00

2.38

4.68

1.79

0.04

***

Documents

Impact of the Surge in Chinese Import on Indian Manufacturing Sector