Impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Grégory Beaugrand CNRS, UMR 8013 ELICO Station Marine Wimereux Université

Impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic

Grégory Beaugrand

CNRS, UMR 8013 ELICOStation Marine Wimereux

Université des sciences et technologies de Lille 1BP 80, 62930 Wimereux

France

Email: [email protected]

Reykjavik, 12-14th March 2005

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)

SST (central North Sea)

58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse

mblage

Objectives of this talk

• To document responses of plankton to hydro-climatic forcing

• To show the potential consequences of climate-induced plankton changes for the structure and the functioning of the pelagic ecosystems, for higher trophic levels (Fish) and biogeochemical cycles

Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR)Survey

Sir Alister Hardy

Herring Packers& Drifters

First tow September

1931

4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W

4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W

4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W

4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W

M e t r i d i a l u c e n sC e n t r o p a g e s t y p i c u s

C a l a n u s f i n m a r c h i c u s P a r a - P s e u d o c a l a n u s s p p .

4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W

4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W

4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W

4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W

M e t r i d i a l u c e n sC e n t r o p a g e s t y p i c u s

C a l a n u s f i n m a r c h i c u s P a r a - P s e u d o c a l a n u s s p p .

The CPR sampler

CPR sampling: 1946-2002

Information in the CPR database>400 species or taxa

Dinoflagellates Diatoms Copepods

108 taxa

Other zooplanktonMeroplankton

Euphausiids

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage

Large-scale climatic forcing

Climatic variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

NAO (January to March)

1988

NAO

-0 .6

-0 .4

-0 .2

0

0 .2

0 .4

0 .6

EA (September to April)

1982

EA

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1950

2002

1962

1958

1954

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

EA - Jet (April to August)

1987

EA-jet

Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomalies (moving average)

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.619

50

2002

1962

1958

1954

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

Long-term changes in sea surface temperature

(1960-1997)

-50-40-30-20-100102030405060

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996 -0.4

-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.6 Northern Hemisphere

Temperature (in red)r=0.67, p<0.001p

First p

rincip

al com

ponen

t SST (

in blac

k)First eigenvector

-0.02 0.040 0.02

Increase in sea surface temperature related positively to NHT anomalies

From Beaugrand et al. (2002). Science. 296: 1692-1694.

What kind of biological consequences are expected under climatic warming?

• Changes in the range and spatial distribution of species • Shifts in the location of biogeographical boundaries, provinces and biomes • Change in the phenology of species (e.g. earlier reproductive season)• Modification in dominance (e.g. a key species can be replaced by another one) • Change in diversity• Change in other key functional attributes for marine ecosystems• Change in structure and dynamics of ecosystem with possible regime shifts

Major impact for marine exploited resources and biogeo-chemical processes (e.g. sequestration of CO2 by the ocean)

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage

Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing

1. Biogeographical shifts

Warm-temperate shelf- edge species

Mean number of species per association

Temperate shelf- edge species

Beaugrand et al. (2002) Science. Vol. 296. 1692-1694.

Cold-temperate (mixed water) species

Subarctic species

Mean number of species per associationBeaugrand et al. (2002) Science. Vol. 296. 1692-1694.

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage


2. Changes in biodiversity

Long-term monthly changes in calanoid copepod diversityThe North Sea (north and central part)

Mean number of calanoid species per CPR sample

58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98123456789

101112

11.522.533.544.55

Years

MONTHS

Line in black: warm-temperate speciesLine in red: temperate species

-10 -5 0 5 10

50

55

60

North Sea

France

Mean

num

ber of sp

ecies p

er CP

R sam

ple

Before 1980 After 1980

Statistical modelling the seasonal changes in diversity

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage

r² = 0.93n = 540pACF <0.01

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1 2 3 4

Taxonomic diversity

Siz

e d

iver

sity

Relationships between taxonomic diversity and size diversity for calanoid copepods

Beaugrand et al. (in prep)

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage


3. Relationships between changes in plankton and fish

0,3

0,35

0,4

0,45

0,50,55

0,6

0,65

0,7

0,75

0,8

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage

Beaugrand (2004) PROOCE

-0.4

0

0.4

0.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Sec

ond

pri

ncip

al

com

pone

nt (

31.3

6%)

SS

T

(cen

tral

Nor

th S

ea)

58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)

NH

T a

nom

alie

sM

ean

umb

er o

f sp

ecie

s pe

r as

sem

blag

e

Gadoid species (cod)

SST

NHT anomalies

plankton change-4

-2

0

2

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

N o m a tc h fo r a n y o f th e c a la n o id c o p e p o d a s se m b la g e s

-2

-1

0

1

2

5 8 6 2 6 6 7 0 7 4 7 8 8 2 8 6 9 0 9 4 9 8Ye a r s (1 9 5 8 -1 9 9 9 )

Flatfish

salinity

Westerly wind

plankton change

Regime shifts in the North Sea and in the Pacific Ocean

-2.4-2

-1 .6-1.2-0.8-0.4

00 .40.81 .21.6

2

195

81

960

196

21

964

196

61

968

197

01

972

197

41

976

197

81

980

198

21

984

198

61

988

199

01

992

199

41

996

199

8

Sta

nd

ar

d d

evia

te

C alanoid copepods

-2-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.4

00.40.81.21.6

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

Sta

nd

ard

dev

iate

F i sh to ta l b iom a ss (5 spe cie s)

Beaugrand & Ibanez (in press, MEPS)

Beaugrand G (2004) Progress in Oceanography

Regime shifts in the North Sea and in the Pacific Ocean

Beaugrand & Ibanez (in press, MEPS)

-2.4-2

-1 .6-1.2-0.8-0.4

00 .40.81 .21.6

2

195

81

960

196

21

964

196

61

968

197

01

972

197

41

976

197

81

980

198

21

984

198

61

988

199

01

992

199

41

996

199

8

Sta

nd

ar

d d

evia

te

C alanoid copepods

-2-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.4

00.40.81.21.6

195

81

960

196

21

964

196

61

968

197

01

972

197

41

976

197

81

980

198

21

984

198

61

988

199

01

992

199

41

996

199

8

Sta

nd

ard

dev

iate Ca la no id co pep od s ( 17 i nd icato rs)

F ish tota l b io ma ss (5 spe c ie s)

Beaugrand G (2004) Progress in Oceanography

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage


4. Relationships between changes in plankton and the

Atlantic salmon

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage

-0.2-0.10

0.10.20.30.40.5

-20-15-10-50510152025

-20-15-10-505101520

-4-3-2-1012345

1948

1958

1968

1978

1988

1998

NHT anomalies

Phytoplankton

C. finmarchicus

Salmo salar

1987

Beaugrand and Reid (2003) Global Change Biology

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage

a. First principal component (52.34% of the total variability)

b. Discontinuity analysis

0.01

0.1

1

196

0

196

3

196

6

196

9

197

2

197

5

197

8

198

1

198

4

198

7

199

0

199

3

199

6

Pro

babi

lity

-3-2-101234

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

Firs

t pri

ncip

al c

ompo

nent

Local hydro-climatic changes in the north-east Atlantic and the North Sea: SMW / MRPP analyses

Beaugrand & Reid, 2003 Global Change Biology 9, 801-807

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

1979

1978

1980

1962

1975

1964

1976

1963

1977

1965

1966

1969

1970

1968

1985

1960

1986

1974

1972

1982

1971

1967

1981

1973

1961

1984

1983

1996

1992

1988

1994

1993

1991

1987

1990

1989

1997

1995

Ch

ord d

istance

1987-1997 1958-1986

Cluster Analysis: grouping years as a function of physical and biological characters

Variables :

Sea SurfaceTemperature NE Atlantic

Northern Hemisphere Temperature

North Atlantic Oscillation

Phytoplankton

Zooplankton (3 taxa)

Salmon catches

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage


5. Relationships between changes in plankton and cod

Plankton indicator of larval cod survival

March October

Calanus (from egg to adults)

July

Pseudocalanus

Euphausiids

fish larvae

• Total biomass of calanoid copepods• Mean size of calanoid copepod (ratio prey length/larval length=0.05)

Beaugrand et al. (2003) Nature. Vol. 426. 661-664.

Long-term change in the plankton index and cod recruitment (at age 1, one-year lag)

Plankton and cod recruitment

4.74.95.15.35.55.75.9

-8-6-4-202468

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997B

iolo

gica

l par

ame

ters

(P

C1,

in b

lack

) cod recruitm

ent (in red)


-6-4-20246

-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.5

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997Bi

olog

ical

par

amet

ers

(PC

1, in

bla

ck)

cod recruitment

(in red)


Plankton and cod recruitment

Consequences of plankton changes on higher trophic level (3)

0.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.4

6065707580859095123456789101112

size (in mm)

Gadoid Outburst

Mean size of calanoid copepod prey

606570758085909515202530354045

0.020.030.040.050.060.070.08

0.040.05

0.03

0.02

0.06

Mean le

ngth of

cod larv

ae (in m

m)

Ratio length copepod / length cod larvae

Ratio length of prey / length of larvae

1. Mismatch between size of prey and larval cod

Beaugrand, et al. (2003) Nature. Vol. 426. 661-664.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

C. finmarchicus

C. helgolandicus

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Long-term changes in the abundance of two key species in the North Sea

Per

cen

tage

of

C. h

elgo

lan

dicu

s

Reid et al. (2003)


2. Mismatch between the timing of calanus prey and larval cod

Abundance of C. finmarchicus

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112

0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6 Abundance (in log(x+1))

10

Gadoid Outburst

Abundance of C. helgolandicus

123456789101112

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0 Abundance (in log(x+1))

10

Gadoid Outburst



3. Quantitative changes unfavourable for larval/juvenile survival

Mean biomass of calanoid copepod preys

123456789101112

051015202530

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

biomass (in mg per sample)Gadoid Outburst

Abundance of euphausiids

0.1

0.20.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112 Abundance (in log(x+1))

10

Years (1958-1999)

Month

s

Gadoid Outburst


-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage

warming of temperature

Decrease in the number of prey (-)

Energetic gain

Growth and survival

Reduction in recruitment

Larval metabolism

Energetic demand

(+)

(+)

(-)

(-)(+)

Energetic imbalance

(-)

(-)

Overfishing

-0.400.40.8

-2-10123-3-2-10123

-2-1012

Second principal

component (31.36%)



mblage


6. Changes in the functioning of pelagic ecosystems with possible consequences for

biogeochemical cycles

Exemple of the North Sea

Functional warming of North Sea marine ecosystems: decrease in the mean size of calanoid

copepods

Eigenvector 2 (17.52%)Principal component 2 (in black)

Beaugrand et al. (in prep)

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Long-term monthly changes in the minimum turnover of biogenic carbon

Years (1958-1999)

Mon

ths

Min

imu

m tu

rnover (in

day)

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

Increase in the ecosystem metabolism

Long-term monthly changes in the mean residence time of carbon above 50 m

Years (1958-1999)

Mon

ths

Resid

ence tim

e (in d

ay)

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

Potential decreasein carbon sink in the North Sea

Response of the pelagic ecosystem to climate change

Cold period: 1964-1981 Warm period: 1987-2002

• Increase in carbon recycling (ecosystem metabolism)• Decrease in exportation

Adaptation of North Sea ecosystems to a new regime

Minimum size(1958-2002)

Diversity(1958-2002)

Biomass(1958-2002)

Difference between the period 1964-1980 and 1987-2002

Shift in the location of the main biogeographical boundaries

1965-1981

Analysis with mean size, diversity, total biomass and temperature

First principal component First principal component

1987-2002

Response of the pelagic ecosystem to climate change

Diatom diversity Dinoflagellate diversity

Mean number of species per CPR sample

Conclusions

• Examination of data from the CPR survey have revealed major changes in the plankton ecosystems in European seas

• Plankton ecosystem changes are related to large-scale climatic variability (e.g. NAO and NHT)

• Strong potential consequences for exploited resources

Aknowledgments

• Philip C Reid (SAHFOS)

• Keith Brander (ICES, Copenhagen)

• Frederic Ibanez (LOV, Villefranche-sur-mer)

Mean size of calanoid copepods (minimum size of female)

Mean size of calanoid copepods (female)

1 1.5 2 2.5 3G. Beaugrand

Biotic anomalies around the United Kingdom

A n o m a lie s A n o m a lie s

A n o m a lie s A n o m a lie s

Biological materials:Euphausiids, Calanus, phytoplankton colourCalanoid copepod biomass, mean size of calanoid copepods

Statistical analysis:Three-mode PCA

Results:Major biotic anomalies in the North Sea during the 1990s(start of the change during the 1980s)

Beaugrand (in preparation)

Documents

Impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Grégory Beaugrand CNRS, UMR 8013 ELICO Station Marine Wimereux Université