Impact of Heathrow expansion on passenger growth at UK airports If approval is given for a third runway at Heathrow Airport, the number of passengers forecast in 2050 to use UK airports outside of the London area is expected to fall by 8.5%. The following tables show the impact on individual airports, and a comparison with the previous forecasts presented by the Airports Commission in 2015. AEF analysis based on data from DfT UK Aviation Forecasts, October 2017 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-aviation-forecasts-2017

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-aviation-forecasts-2017

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Heathrow Edinburgh London City Luton Stansted Gatwick EastMidlands

Liverpool Brtistol Newcastle Birmingham Glasgow Manchester Otherregional

% change in passengers with Heathrow R3 compared to baseline in 2050

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Edinburgh London City Luton Stansted Gatwick EastMidlands

Liverpool Brtistol Newcastle Birmingham Glasgow Manchester Otherregional

Impact of Hearthrow R3 on UK airports compared to baseline in 2050 (% change)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Heathrow Edinburgh London City Luton Stansted Gatwick EastMidlands

Liverpool Brtistol Newcastle Glasgow Birmingham Manchester Otherregional

Change in passengers (mppa) with Heathrow R3 compared to baseline in 2050

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Edinburgh London City Luton Stansted Gatwick EastMidlands

Liverpool Brtistol Newcastle Glasgow Birmingham Manchester Otherregional

Impact of Heathrow R3 on UK airports compared to baseline in 2050 (passengers mppa)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Heathrow Edinburgh London City Luton Stansted Gatwick EastMidlands

Liverpool Brtistol Newcastle Birmingham Glasgow Manchester

Comparison of DfT 2017 forecast of % change in passengers at UK airports in 2050 with R3, with AC 2015

DfT 2017 AC 2015

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Heathrow Edinburgh London City Luton Stansted Gatwick EastMidlands

Liverpool Brtistol Newcastle Glasgow Birmingham Manchester Otherregional

Comparison of DfT 2017 forecast of passengers (mppa) at UK airports in 2050 with R3, with AC 2015

DfT 2017 AC 2015

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Edinburgh London City Luton Stansted Gatwick East Midlands Liverpool Brtistol Newcastle Glasgow Birmingham Manchester

DfT 2017 forecast of impact of R3 on passengers (mppa) at UK airports in 2050, compared to AC 2015

DfT 2017 AC 2015

Impact on selected UK airports

12.3

18.2

27.4 3

2.9

12.3 15

.4

21.4

31.1

2 0 1 6 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0

FORECAST ANNUAL PASSENGER NUMBERS (MPPA) AT BIRMINGHAM

AIRPORT W ITH AND W ITHOUT HEATHROW RUNWAY 3

Baseline (no R3) With Heathrow R3

26.8 30

.8 38.

6

50.3

26.8 30

.6 37.

8 43.7

2 0 1 6 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0

FORECAST ANNUAL PASSENGER NUMBERS (MPPA) AT MANCHESTER

AIRPORT W ITH AND W ITHOUT HEATHROW RUNWAY 3

Baseline (no R3) With Heathrow R3

8.2

12.2

13.1 1

5.3

8.2

11.6

12.1 14

2 0 1 6 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0

FORECAST ANNUAL PASSENGER NUMBERS (MPPA) AT GLASGOW AIRPORT WITH AND WITHOUT

HEATHROW RUNWAY 3

Baseline (no R3) With Heathrow R3

Annex – Previous analysis based on Airports Commission data (2015) AEF analysis based on data from Airports Commission Strategic Fit: Forecasts, July 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/439687/strategic-fit-updated-forecasts.pdf

The Airports Commission published forecasts of passenger numbers at UK airports both with and without South East runway expansion. The

‘carbon traded’ scenario effectively represents the ‘business as usual’ case under which no new policies are introduced to constrain emissions. The

‘carbon capped’ scenario assumes that the Government acts to limit aviation emissions in line with the Climate Change Act.

The Commission argued that a new Heathrow runway could be compatible with the carbon cap. But as shown below, if Heathrow expands, growth

at every other UK airport would have to somehow be constrained (compared with a ‘no expansion’ scenario) in order to keep emissions within the

limit. Under the carbon traded scenario, some airports do benefit from Heathrow expansion, although the majority lose out, as an increasing

proportion of traffic moves to Heathrow.

Figures are available on request.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/439687/strategic-fit-updated-forecasts.pdf

44.3

0

-1.1 -1.4 -2.8 -3.4 -3.5-8.6 -9.1 -10.8 -11.2 -12.2 -12.4 -12.8 -13.7 -14.8 -15.1 -16.7

-20.5-25.1 -25.7 -25.8 -26.9

-33.3-36.1

-39.6

-55.3

-62.6

-83.5-90.2-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Carbon capped scenario: Percentage change in airport passenger numbers by 2050 with Heathrow Runway 3 compared to 'Do Minimum'

45.2

16

9.24.3 3.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.4

-0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -1.6 -1.9 -2.9 -3.8 -4.1 -6

-19.4 -19.6 -21.8 -22.6-26.1

-37.7

-44.3-50

-87-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Carbon traded scenario: Percentage change in airport passenger numbers by 2050 with Heathrow Runway 3 compared to 'Do Minimum'