Impact evalua,on of SCT in SSA - Home | Food and ... · PDF fileImpact evalua,on of SCT in SSA: What is the evidence on producve/economic acvies and labor ... (1) value of ag producKon

SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on

SocialProtec,onFromProtec,ontoProduc,on

Impactevalua,onofSCTinSSA:Whatistheevidenceonproduc,ve/economicac,vi,esandlabor

supply?SilvioDaidone

MasterCourseinPublicPolicy&HumanDevelopmentMaastricht,March28,2017


WhydolivelihoodsmaFerforsocialprotec,on?

•  MostbeneficiariesinSubSaharanAfricaarerural,engagedinagricultureandworkforthemselves•  Zimbabwe:88%producecrops;75%havelivestock•  Kenya:80%producecrops;75%havelivestock•  Lesotho:80%producecrops;60%havelivestock•  Zambia:80%producecrops;50%havelivestock

•  Mostgrowlocalstaples,usingtradiKonaltechnologyandlowlevelsofmoderninputs•  MostproducKonconsumedonfarm

•  MosthavelowlevelsofproducKveassets•  .5-2hectaresofagriculturalland,afewanimals,basicagricultural

tools,fewyearsofeducaKon•  Engagedonfarm,nonfarmbusiness,casualwagelabour(ganyu/maricho)

•  Largeshareofchildrenworkonthefamilyfarm•  50%inZambia,30%inLesotho


Reachingsocialgoalsrequiressustainablelivelihoods

•  WorkincontextofmulKplemarketfailuresincredit,insurance,etc•  Constraineconomicdecisionsininvestment,producKon,labor

allocaKon,risktaking•  ShortKmehorizon—imperaKveofmeeKngimmediateneeds•  Lackofliquidity,difficulttomanagerisk

•  DecisionsaboutproducKonandconsumpKonlinked•  “nonseparability”ofproducKonandconsumpKonmeansthatsocialobjecKvesarecondiKonedbylivelihoods—andviceversa•  Laborneeds(adultsandchildren),includingdomesKcchores•  Investmentinschoolingandhealth•  FoodconsumpKon,dietarydiversityandnutriKon•  Intrahouseholddecisionmaking

•  Dynamicbetweenmenandwomen,oldandyoung

•  UlKmately,reachingsocialgoalsrequiressustainablelivelihoods


Policymakersareconcernedabout

Dependency

GraduaKon


Socialcashtransferstargetedtopoorestofthepoorcanhaveproduc,veimpacts

•  TheorybehindproducKveimpactsofcashtransfersalwaysimpliesmarketfailures

•  Longtermeffectsofimprovedhumancapital•  NutriKonalandhealthstatus;educaKonaladainment•  LaborproducKvityandemployability

•  Transferscanrelaxsomeofconstraintsbroughtonbymarketfailure(lackofaccesstocredit,insurance)

•  Helpinghouseholdsmanagerisk•  Providinghouseholdswithliquidity

•  Transferscanreduceburdenonsocialnetworksandinformalinsurancemechanisms

•  InfusionofcashcanleadtomulKpliereffectsinlocalvillageeconomy


FromProtec,ontoProduc,on• ProvideinsightintohowcashtransferscancontributetosustainablepovertyreducKonandeconomicgrowthathouseholdandcommunitylevels

• KeycomponentoftheTransferProject•  ImplementedbyFAOandUNICEFinconjuncKonwithpartnergovernments

• AddedvaluetoimpactevaluaKonsofgovernmentrunsocialcashtransferprogramsinsevencountries

• PtoP:IniKalfundingfromDFID(2011-2014),EUandFAO

•  ImpactevaluaKons:DFID,government,EU,3i


Country Programmename Startyear

Ethiopia TigraySocialCashTransferPilotProgramme(SCTPP) 2011Ghana LivelihoodEmpowermentAgainstPoverty(LEAP) 2008

Kenya CashTransferforOrphansandVulnerableChildren(CT-OVC)

2004

Lesotho ChildGrantsProgramme(CGP) 2010Malawi SocialCashTransfer(SCT) 2006Zambia CGmodel(CG)oftheSocialCashTransfer 2010

Zimbabwe HarmonizedSocialCashTransfer(HSCT) 2011

EvaluaKonofexisKngGovernmentprogrammes,notsmallexperiments!

Countriesandprogrammes


AsetofintegratedtoolsusedtoevaluatethesevenCTs•  Micro-econometricapproach:ex-postevaluaKonoftheprogrammes,comparingasampleofbeneficiaryhouseholds(thetreatmentgroup)vis-à-visasampleofsimilarhouseholdseligiblefortheprogrammebutnotreceivingit(thecontrol/comparisongroup)

•  QualitaKveanalysis:keyinformantinterviews,focusedgroupdiscussions,in-depthhouseholdscasestudiestoexploretheimpactofCTsonhouseholdeconomicdecision-makingandthelocaleconomy

•  Generalequilibriummodels:LocalEconomyWideImpactEvaluaKon(LEWIE)toassessthespilloversandtheincome/producKonmulKpliersoftheCTsonthelocaleconomies

Mixedmethods


Eligible IneligibleEligible Ineligible

Treatedvillages Controlvillages

Dataanalysis–  Baselinesurvey

•  Groupscomparison(balance)•  SimulaKonofimpacts

–  Follow-upsurvey(s)•  EsKmateoftrueimpacts•  ValidaKonandupdateofsimulaKonmodels

Indirectbenefits(spillovers)Impactoftheprogramme

Moreonthequantanalysis…


Country DesignLevelofrandomiza,on/matching

Ineligiblesample Baseline Follow-up

Ethiopia Non-experimental(PSMandIPW)

Householdswithinvillage

Baselineonly 2011 2013

Ghana Non-experimental(PSMandIPW) Householdandregion No 2010 2012

Kenya ExperimentalwithPSMandIPW LocaKon No 2007 2009-2011

Lesotho Experimental Electoraldivision Yes 2011 2013

Malawi Experimental TradiKonalauthority Baselineonly 2013 2014

Zambia ExperimentalCommunityWelfareAssistanceCommidee(CWAC)

No 2010 2012

ZimbabweQuasi-experimental(matchedcase-control)

Matchedcase-control Baselineonly 2013 2014

Evalua,ondesign


Impactsonproduc,veac,vi,es

Strongerimpact Mixedimpact Lessimpact

(1)valueofagproducKon(2)NSatmidline,strongatendline(3)animalproducts(4)variesbytypeofbusiness(5)smallerhouseholds(6)switchingcrops

ZambiaCGP

MalawiSCTP

ZimbabweHSCT

LesothoCGP

KenyaCT-OVC

EthiopiaSCTPP

GhanaLEAP

Agriculturalinputs ++ + NS + - -/+ +

Agriculturaltools ++ ++ +(5) NS NS + NS

AgriculturalproducKon ++(1) ++(2) ++(6) + NS ++ NS

Agriculturalsales ++ + NS NS -

HomeconsumpKonofagproducKon

NS ++(3) NS + NS

Livestockownership Alltypes Alltypes Mosttypes Pigs Smallruminants - NS

Non-farmenterprise ++ NS(4) ++ NS +FHH/-MHH - NS



Strongerimpact


ZambiaCGP

MalawiSCTP

Agriculturalinputs ++ +

Agriculturaltools ++ ++

AgriculturalproducKon ++(1) ++(2)

Agriculturalsales ++ +


NS ++(3)

Livestockownership Alltypes Alltypes

Non-farmenterprise ++ NS(4)



Mixedimpact


ZimbabweHSCT

LesothoCGP

KenyaCT-OVC

Agriculturalinputs NS + -

Agriculturaltools +(5) NS NS

AgriculturalproducKon ++(6) + NS

Agriculturalsales NS NS


NS +

Livestockownership Mosttypes Pigs Smallruminants

Non-farmenterprise ++ NS +FHH/-MHH



Lessimpact


EthiopiaSCTPP

GhanaLEAP

Agriculturalinputs -/+ +

Agriculturaltools + NS

AgriculturalproducKon ++ NS

Agriculturalsales -


NS

Livestockownership - NS

Non-farmenterprise - NS



ManystoriestoldinthequalitaKvefieldwork:- Generally,typeofagriculturalspendingcontext-andhousehold-specific- land-holdingbeneficiariesbeingabletohirelaborers- Increasingspendingonaginputs- Investmentinsmalllivestock


ZambiaCGP

MalawiSCTP

ZimbabweHSCT

LesothoCGP

KenyaCT-OVC

EthiopiaSCTPP

GhanaLEAP

Agriculturalinputs ++ + NS + - -/+ +

Agriculturaltools ++ ++ +(5) NS NS + NS

AgriculturalproducKon ++(1) ++(2) ++(6) + NS ++ NS

Agriculturalsales ++ + NS NS -


NS ++(3) NS + NS

Livestockownership Alltypes Alltypes Mosttypes Pigs Smallruminants - NS

Non-farmenterprise ++ NS(4) ++ NS +FHH/-MHH - NS


Reduc,onincasualaglabor,butnogeneralworkdisincen,ve

“IusedtobeaslavetoganyubutnowI’mabitfree.”-elderlybeneficiary,Malawi

ZambiaCGP

MalawiSCTP

ZimbabweHSCT

LesothoCGP

KenyaCT-OVC

EthiopiaSCTPP

GhanaLEAP

Ag/casualwagelabor

-- -- NS -- -- NS

Familyfarm ++ NS(1) -- NS(1) NS +

Non-farmbusiness ++ NS(2) NS NS NS -- NS

Nonagwagelabor ++ +/NS(3) NS NS NS - NS

(1)variesbyageandgender(2)variesbytypeofbusiness(3)NSatmidline,posiKveatendline

Shirfromcasualwagelabourtofamilybusiness—consistentlyreportedinqualitaKvefieldwork


Reduc,onofchildren’swork,especiallyonfarm

Wage/casual

labor Familyfarm

ZambiaCGP NS NSMalawiSCTP --(1) NSZimbabweHSCT NS NS/-(2)LesothoCGP NS --KenyaCT-OVC NS --EthiopiaSCTPP NS --GhanaLEAP NS NS

(1)strongerforolderboysinganyu(2)girls


ZambiaCGP

MalawiSCTP

ZimbabweHSCT

LesothoCGP

KenyaCT-OVC

EthiopiaSCTPP

GhanaLEAP

NegaKveriskcoping -- --

Payoffdebt ++ ++ NS NS ++

Borrowing -- - NS NS NS +/- --

Purchaseoncredit NS -- + NS NS NS

Savings ++ NS +Giveinformaltransfers

NS NS ++ NS ++

Receiveinformaltransfers

NS + ++ NS ++

Remidances NS -- NS

Trust ++

Tendencytowardsimprovedabilitytomanagerisks

•  ReducKoninnegaKveriskcopingstrategies

•  Increaseinsavings,payingoffdebtandcreditworthiness—riskaversion

Strengthenedsocialnetworks•  Inallcountries,re-engagementwithsocialnetworksofreciprocity—informalsafetynet

•  Someinstancesofcrowdingout•  AllowhouseholdstoparKcipate,to“mingle”again


Householdmul,pliereffectgreaterthan1inafewcountries.Cantheseprogramspayforthemselves?

Impacts are based on econometric results and averaged across all follow-up surveys. Estimates for productive tools and livestock derived by multiplying average increase (numbers) by market price. Only statistically significant impacts are considered.


Posi,veimpactsonthesurroundingeconomy

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Malawi Kenya(Nyanza) Ethiopia(Abi-Adi)

Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya(Garissa) Lesotho Ghana Ethiopia(Hintalo)

NominalmulKplier RealmulKplier

•  WhyvariaKon?•  Whichsectors

getsKmulated•  Opennessofthe

economy•  Supplyresponse•  Other

constraints

IncomemulKplierisgreaterthan1ineverycountry


Impactonthelocaleconomy•  Transferraisespurchasingpowerofbeneficiaryhouseholds•  Ascashspent,impactsspreadtoothersinsideandoutsidetreatedvillages,seunginmoKonincomemulKpliers

•  Purchasesoutsidevillageshirincomeeffectstonon-treatedvillages,potenKallyunleashingincomemulKpliersthere.

•  Asprogramscaledup,transfershasdirectandindirect(generalequilibrium)effectsthroughoutregion.

•  Threepossibleextremes:•  Localsupplyexpandstomeetallthisdemand

•  BiglocalmulKplier•  Everythingcomesfromoutsidethelocaleconomy

•  NolocalmulKplieratall:1:1•  Localsupplyunabletoexpandtomeetdemand,andnoimports

•  InflaKon

•  Havetofollowthemoney•  SurveysandLEWIEmodeldesignedtodothis


CGPbeneficiariesspendmostoftransferlocally—over95percent

Includesvillageandnearbyvillagesandtown

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

crop livestock services manuf retail outside

Budg

etsh

are

ExpeditureCategory


CGPhouseholditemspurchasedinvillage,inputsintown

Outs ide

(incl .gov.)

ItemPurchasedReta i l i temspurchasedbyhouseholds 0.545 0.172 0.281 0.002Purchasedinputforcropproduction 0.117 0.095 0.535 0.252Reta i l inputs purchasedbybus inesses 0.172 0.095 0.444 0.289Animal products purchasedbyhouseholds 0.82 0.131 0.049 0

Vi l lage NearbyVi l lage

Town


Theseproduc,onac,vi,esbuyinputsfromeachother,paywages,andmakeprofits

Paymentstofactors Paymentstofactors

LocalPurchases Leakage

Leakage

Theseexpendituresstartanewroundofincomeincreases

Largelocalcontent

Lesslocalcontent

DatafromGhana


Simulatedincomemul,plieroftheZambiaCGPprogram

Base model Income multiplier

Nominal 1.79

(CI) (1.73- 1.85)

Real 1.34 (CI) (1.29- 1.39)

Every1Kwachatransferredcangenerate1.79Kwachaofincome

ProducKonconstraintscanlimitlocalsupplyresponse,whichmayleadtohigherpricesandalowermulKplier

Whenconstraintsarebinding,every1Kwachatransferredcangenerate1.34Kwachaofincome

MAX

MIN


Nearlyallthespillovergoestonon-beneficiaryhouseholds

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Total Beneficiaryhousehold

Nonbeneficiaryhouseholds

Nominal

Spillover

Transfer

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Total Beneficiaryhousehold Nonbeneficiaryhouseholds

Real


Cashtransfersleadtoincomemul,pliersacrosstheregion

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Kenya(Nyanza) Ethiopia(Abi-Adi)



Every1Birrtransferredcangenerate2.52Birrofincome

Ifconstraintsarebinding,maybeaslowas1.84

IncomemulKplierisgreaterthan1ineverycountry


Whatexplainsdifferencesinimpactacrosscountries?

Crop Livestock NFEProductive

laborSocial

NetworksRisk

managementZambia üü üü üü üü üüMalawi üü üü X üü ü üZimbabwe ü üü üü X X üLesotho ü ü X X üü üüKenya X üü X üEthiopia üü X X X üGhana X X X ü ü ü


Predictabilityofpayment

Regularandpredictabletransfersfacilitateplanning,consumpKonsmoothingandinvestment

0

1

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2

Sep-12

#ofpaymen

ts

ZambiaCGP

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

#ofpaymen

ts

GhanaLEAP

RegularandpredictableLumpyandirregular


Biggertransfermeansmoreimpact

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

GhanaLEAP(old)

KenyaCT-OVC(big)

Burkina KenyaCT-OVC

RSACSG LesothoCGP(base)

GhanaLEAP

(current)

KenyaCT-OVC(small)

Zim(HSCT) ZambiaCGP

ZambiaMCP

MalawiSCT

Widespreadimpact

SelecKveimpact


Demographicprofileofbeneficiaries

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 to 89

Over 90

1000 500 500 1000 population

Males Females

Ghana LEAP

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 to 89

Over 90

2000 500 500 2000 population

Males Females

Zambia CGP

Moreable-bodiedMorelabour-constrained


•  MessaginginuncondiKonalprogrammes,andcondiKonsinCCTs,affectshowhouseholdsspendthetransfer

•  Lesotho:CGPtransfercombinedwithFoodEmergencyGrant–  Instructedtospendonchildren(shoesand

uniforms)–  Instructedtospendonagriculturalinputs–  Andtheydid!!

ProgrammessagingmaFers!


Sizeofincomemul,pliervariesbycountryandcontext—Why?

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Kenya(Nyanza) Ethiopia(Abi-Adi)




• Ghana:- MulKpliereffectsfromLEWIEmodelwerecitedbythePresidentofGhanainaspeech

• Zambia:-  FindingsfromFAO’simpactevaluaKoncontributedtoscalingupsocialprotecKonprogrammes

• Lesotho:-  FindingsfromFAO’simpactevaluaKonusedforadvocacybytheMinistryofSocialDevelopment,parKcularlywiththeMinistryofFinance

Impactsonpoliciesandprogrammes


HowcancashtransfersbebeFerlinkedtolivelihoods?

1.  Ensureregularandpredictablepayments2.  LinkcashtransferstolivelihoodintervenKons3.  Considermessaging—it’soktospendoneconomic

acKviKes4.  ConsiderexpandingtargeKngtoincludehouseholds

withhigherpotenKaltosustainablyachieveself-reliance–  includingable-bodiedlabourButkeepinginmindpotenKalconflictsandsynergies

withsocialobjecKves


Agriculture,livelihoodinterven,onsplayimportantpartinsocialprotec,onsystems•  ReachingsocialobjecKvesandreducingvulnerabilityrequiresustainablelivelihoods

•  AlmostthreequartersofeconomicallyacKveruralpopulaKonaresmallholders,mostproducingownfood

•  SmallholderagricultureaskeyforruralpovertyreducKonandfoodsecurityinSubSaharanAfrica

•  ReliesonincreasedproducKvity,profitabilityandsustainabilityofsmallholderfarming

•  SocialprotecKonandagricultureneedtobearKculatedaspartofstrategyofruraldevelopment

•  LinktograduaKonstrategies


Newevidence•  Lesotho:CGP+homesteadgardening

•  Posi%veeffectsoftheprogrammesonhomesteadgardeningandproduc%veagriculturalac%vi%es.Manyof theseobservedoutcomesappeardrivenby thecombina%onof thetwoprogrammes.

•  Lesotho:shock-responsivesocialprotecKon•  El Niño induced drought has triggered a rise of food prices in the region, especiallycereals. Tomaintainwelfare unchanged, the amount of the ChildGrants Programmewouldhavetoincreaseby2%foreverypercentagepointincreaseinthepriceofcereals.

•  Malawi:FISP+SCT•  SCT and FISP play complementary roles to improve consump%on and produc%on.Synergiesstrongerforpoorerlabourconstrainedhouseholds.

•  Zambia:SCTandtechnicalefficiency•  ChildGrantmodelofSCTincreasedfarmers’inefficiencyby23percent.Lackofknowledge(humancapital)preventedhouseholdstoexploitgreaterinvestmentinagriculturalinputstoexpandproduc%on.Caseformoreextensionservices?


Thankyou

Documents

Impact evalua,on of SCT in SSA - Home | Food and ... · PDF fileImpact evalua,on of SCT in SSA: What is the evidence on producve/economic acvies and labor ... (1) value of ag producKon