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Impact Assessment Of Hydro-Meteorological Events On Texas Pavements And Development Of
Resiliency Strategy
Overview• Presentation in Two Parts:• Research Results from Study Funded by Texas
Department of Transportation• Proposed Future Work for funding from DHS
2
TxDOT Funded Study•Problem•Approach•Framework Adopted•Climate Model Data•Vulnerability Assessment of the Pavements•Adaptation Methods•Probabilistic Analysis•Conclusions
3
Why Hydrometerological Events are problem?
Rutting result of change in temperature and soil moisture
4
Flooding: wetter surface, stripping increases, water enters pavement
structures
Hurricane Harvey Damage
Approach• Future Cliamte Projections for Regional and Local
• Parameters Impacting Pavement Infrastructure
• Framework for Evaluating the Performance of the Pavements
• Vulnerability Assessment of Pavements: – Current and projected variability of climate change
– Evaluating effects of climatic change on the performance of pavement structures
– Nature and severity of each parameter
– The sensitivity of roads to climate change
• Adaptation Methods for Climate Change
• Probabilistic Analysis 5
6
• Special Report on Emission Scenario (IPCC AR4, 2000)
• Representative Concentrative Pathways (IPCC AR5, 2014)
• Statistical Downscaling• Dynamic Downscaling
Emission Scenarios
Conduct Probabilistic
Analysis
Downscaling Methods
• Temporal: Daily, 3-hourly• Spatial Resolution: 50x50 km
Climate Data Source used in this StudyClimate Source/ Downscaling method/
Emission scenarioParameters/ Resolution
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
(NARCCAP) uses Dynamic downscaling and is based on
Emission Scenario: SRES A2 .
Temporal resolution: Daily (maximum and minimum surface air temperature)
3-hourly (Climate Parameters: precipitation, surface air temperature, cloud fraction, wind
speed, relative humidity)Spatial resolution: 50x50 km
7
Climate ModelsNARCCAP includes six RCMs and four GCMs namely:
RCMs:
1) Hadley Regional Climate Model Version 3 (HRM3)
2) Regional Climate Model 3.0 (RCM3)
3) The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM)
4) Experimental Climate Prediction Center Regional Spectral Model (ECPC)
5) Mesoscale Meteorological Model Version 5.0 (MM5I)
6) The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRFG)
GCMs:
1) The Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3)
2) Community Climate System Model (CCSM)
3) The Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3)
4) The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model
8
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Mea
n A
nnua
l Tem
pera
ture
(°F)
Time Period (yrs)
Existing Temperature (Pavement ME)Model Simulate Current (CRCM-CCSM)Model Simulate Future (CRCM-CCSM)Bias corrected Model Simulate CurrentBias corrected Model Simulate Future
Bias-Correction for TemperatureFort Worth
11
Bias-Correction for PrecipitationCorpus Christi
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Mea
n A
nnua
l Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
)
Time Period (years)
Exixting Precipitation (Pavement ME) Model Simulate Current (CRCM-CCSM)
Model Simulate Future (CRCM-CCSM Bias Corrected Model Simulate Current
Bias Corrected Model Simulate Future
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Mon
thly
Mea
n Te
mpe
ratu
re (°
F)Fort Worth
CRCM-CGCM3 HRM3-HADCM3 MM5I-CCSM
MM5I-HADCM3 HRM3-GFDL CRCM-CCSM
Existing ECP2-GFDL RCM3-CGCM3
RCM3-GFDL WRFG-CGCM3 WRFG-CCSM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Amarillo Austin Corpus Christi Dallas El Paso Fort Worth Houston Lubbock Mc Allen San Antonio
Mea
n A
nnua
l Tem
pera
ture
(°F)
Pavement ME Climate MM5I-HADCM3 MM5I-CCSMHRM3-HADCM3 HRM3-GFDL CRCM-CGCM3CRCM-CCSM ECP2-GFDL RCM3-CGCM3RCM3-GFDL WRFG-CGCM3 WRFG-CCSM
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Amarillo Austin Corpus Christi Dallas El Paso Fort Worth Houston Lubbock Mc Allen San Antonio
Mea
n A
nnua
l Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
.)Pavement ME Climate MM5I-HADCM3MM5I-CCSM HRM3-HADCM3HRM3-GFDL CRCM-CGCM3CRCM-CCSM ECP2-GFDLRCM3-CGCM3 RCM3-GFDLWRFG-CGCM3 WRFG-CCSM
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Amarillo Austin Corpus Christi Dallas El Paso Fort Worth Houston Lubbock Mc Allen San Antonio
Mea
n A
nnua
l Win
d Sp
eed
(mph
)Pavement ME Climate MM5I-HADCM3MM5I-CCSM HRM3-HADCM3HRM3-GFDL CRCM-CGCM3CRCM-CCSM ECP2-GFDLRCM3-CGCM3 RCM3-GFDLWRFG-CGCM3 WRFG-CCSM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Amarillo Austin Corpus Christi Dallas El Paso Fort Worth Houston Lubbock Mc Allen San Antonio
Mea
n A
nnua
l Rel
ativ
e H
umid
ity (%
)Pavement ME Climate MM5I-HADCM3MM5I-CCSM HRM3-HADCM3HRM3-GFDL CRCM-CGCM3CRCM-CCSM ECP2-GFDLRCM3-CGCM3 RCM3-GFDLWRFG-CGCM3 WRFG-CCSM
19Rut Depth in Asphalt Concrete Layer
Ride QualityIRI (International Roughness
Index)
IRI is calculated from longitudinal profile measured with a road profiler in both wheelpaths. The average IRI of the two wheelpaths is reported as the roughness of the pavement section.
IH 30 Frontage Road for Process Demonstration
• AADTT: 828
• Percentage of Trucks: 3.6%
• Growth rate 1.86 % for 20 years
• Annual average daily traffic (AADT) of 22,990
21
Subgrade
Asphalt Concrete
Cement Treated Base
4.0”
15.0”
Semi Infinite
Layer Material Properties
Asphalt Concrete Type D, PG 70-22
Cement Treated Base 120 ksi
Subgrade 4.5 ksi
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
IRI(
in./m
ile)
Pavement Age(years)
CRCM_CCSMCRCM_CGCM3ECP2_GFDLECP2-HADCM3HRM3_GFDLHRM3_HADCM3MM5I_CCSMMM5I_HADCM3RCM3_CGCM3RCM3_GFDLWRFG_CCSMWRFG_CGCM3Pavement ME Climate
Maintenance
Range variation due to different Climatic Predictions
8.5 9.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
AC
Rut
ting(
in.)
Pavement Age(years)
CRCM_CCSMCRCM_CGCM3ECP2_GFDLECP2-HADCM3HRM3_GFDLHRM3_HADCM3MM5I_CCSMMM5I_HADCM3RCM3_CGCM3RCM3_GFDLWRFG_CCSMWRFG_CGCM3Pavement ME Climate
Threshold Value
Early Maintenance with climate change projections
15.8
Influence of Extreme Event on Pavement Performance
Assumptions:
• Extreme rainfall will occur at an interval of 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, and 15 years of service life of the pavements.
• Saturation will last at a time for 7.5 days or 15 days or one month or two months after occurrence of these events
25
270.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0 5 10 15 20
Bas
e+S
ub
gra
de
Ru
ttin
g (
in.)
Pavement Age (years)
Pavement ME Climate
2 Month
1 Month
15 Days
7.5 Days
290
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Subg
rade
Mod
ulus
(psi
)
Pavement Age (yrs)
Pavement ME Climate
1 Month
Adaptation Methods• Adaptation Methods for Climate Change
– Increasing the Thickness of AC Layer
– Binder Change
– Changing Mix Type
– Increasing the Thickness of AC Layer and Changing Binder Grade
• Adaptation Methods for Extreme Events
– Improving Subgrade Modulus
• Adaptation to Extreme Event and Climate Change
– Improving Subgrade Modulus and Increasing the Thickness of AC Layer
31
Changing Material Type with Pavement ME
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 5 10 15 20
AC
Rut
ting
(inch
)
Pavement Age (yrs)
SMA PG 70-22SP-C PG 70-22Type C PG 70-22Type D PG 70-22CC_SMA PG 70-22CC_SP-C PG 70-22CC_Type C PG 70-22CC_Type D PG 70-22
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 5 10 15 20IR
I (in
/mile
)Pavement Age (yrs)
SMA PG 70-22SP-C PG 70-22Type C PG 70-22Type D PG 70-22CC_SMA PG 70-22CC_SP-C PG 70-22CC_Type C PG 70-22CC_Type D PG 70-22
With changing climate the average increase in AC rutting is 0.18 in. for any material type
Increase in IRI is about 5 % for each material type with changing climate
Changing Thickness3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
PSI
IRI (
in/m
ile)
Pavement Age (yrs)
Type D PG 70-22CC_Type D PG 70-22_1 inCC_Type D PG 70-22
Maintenance
8.3 9.49.1
Climate Models
Future Simulation (1938-2070)
(°F)
Current Simulation (1971-2000)
(°F)
Bias Corrected
(°F)
CRCM-CCSM 69.33 64.38 75.01CRCM-CGCM3 66.04 61.60 71.73ECP2-GFDL 58.36 54.92 64.05ECP2-HADCM3 59.37 55.62 65.05HRM3-GFDL 67.94 63.03 73.62HRM3-HADCM3 69.16 65.23 74.85MM5I-CCSM 69.09 65.06 74.77MM5I-HADCM3 66.70 62.30 72.39RCM3-CGCM3 64.38 60.35 70.06RCM3-GFDL 60.56 57.04 66.24WRFG-CCSM 63.95 59.02 69.63WRFG-CGCM3 63.87 61.04 69.55
35
Climate Models
Future Simulation (1938-2070)
(inches)
Current Simulation (1971-2000)
(inches)
Bias Corrected
(inches)
CRCM-CCSM 19.76 20.57 23.71CRCM-CGCM3 24.80 24.40 29.76ECP2-GFDL 30.98 36.12 37.16ECP2-HADCM3 31.02 31.58 37.22HRM3-GFDL 35.44 37.95 42.52HRM3-HADCM3 34.18 33.67 41.00MM5I-CCSM 21.05 21.86 25.25MM5I-HADCM3 28.22 27.10 33.86RCM3-CGCM3 28.98 30.08 34.77RCM3-GFDL 35.96 36.10 43.14WRFG-CCSM 22.58 20.62 27.09WRFG-CGCM3 22.02 21.61 26.42
Annual Average Mean Temperature
Annual Average Mean Precipitation
Pavement ME Mean Temperature: 66.48 °F Pavement ME Mean Precipitation: 34.16 inches
Findings• Selected model simulation showed a change in future
• All prediction models simulated an increase in mean annual precipitation, which leads to premature failure
• Change in environmental condition adversely impacts the pavements functionality by reducing the service life of pavements
• Increasing the thickness of the asphalt concrete layer, binder grade, and mix type are some of the options for mitigating impact of hydrometerological events
37
Issues• TxDOT manages roughly 73,000 miles of highways.
• Assuming two lane highway, an increase in 1” layer thickness would cost roughly 20 billion dollars to mitigate impact of environmental conditions.
• Ignoring impact of extreme events is not an option either.
• Identifying and enhancing resiliency of critical pavement infrastructure is an option.
38
From Standard Materials Book (Campbell, Flake C. (2008). Elements of Metallurgy and Engineering Alloys. ASM International
Behavior After Strain Hardening
Beginning of 19th CenturyResiliency
Linkov, Igor & Bridges, Todd & Creutzig, Felix & Decker, Jennifer & Fox-Lent, Cate & Kröger, Wolfgang & Lambert, James & Levermann, Anders & Montreuil, Benoit & Nathwani, Jatin & Nyer, Raymond & Renn, Ortwin & Scharte, Benjamin & Scheffler, Alexander & Schreurs, Miranda & Clemen, Thomas. (2014). Changing the resilience paradigm. Nature Climate Change. 4. 407-409. 10.1038/nclimate2227.
Resiliency
43P. Bocchini, M. Asce, D.M. Frangopol, D.M. Asce, T. Ummenhofer, T. ZinkeResilience and sustainability of civil
infrastructure: toward a unified approach
Resiliency of Critical Transportation Infrastructure
• Accumulate Information on Infrastructure (Transportation Asset Management)
• Identification of critical components of infrastructure through Simulation of Scenarios, traffic patterns, and experience.
• Develop a Resilience Assessment Strategy for Selection and Mitigation
• Develop Multi-criteria Decision Making Framework for Evaluating and Selecting Efficient and Environmentally Friendly Alternative
45
46
Adopted from TRB Report 551 on Transportation Asset Management
Transportation Asset
Management Framework
49Roberto Guidotti, Hana Chmielewski, Vipin Unnikrishnan, Paolo Gardoni, Therese McAllister & John van de Lindt (2016) Modeling the resilience of critical infrastructure: the role of network dependencies, Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 1:3-4, 153-168, DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2016.1254999
Network Dependencies
55
T. P. Bostick; E. B. Connelly; J. H. Lambert; I. Linkov2018: Resilience science, policy and investment for civil infrastructure
Decision Model – To identify an effective decision
making model which can handle
multiple criteria (subjective as well as
objective)
– To develop a group decision model
Decision Model
Multi Criteria Group Decision Model
Decision Model: Multi Criteria Decision Model
• Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is traditionally used for decision making in Civil Engineering
Pros Cons57
Group Decision Model
Current Practice
• Arithmetic or Geometric
Mean of individual
decisions.
• Manipulating individual
decisions.
Pros Cons
58
Group Decision Model • Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based preference
aggregation method (commonly used in business
community) can be selected for group decision.
𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑗𝑗 = �𝑘𝑘=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑢𝑢𝑘𝑘 Ѳ𝑗𝑗𝑘𝑘
𝑆𝑆𝑢𝑢𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡
�𝑘𝑘=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑢𝑢𝑘𝑘Ѳ𝑗𝑗𝑘𝑘 ≤ 1 𝑆𝑆 = 1,2, … ,𝑛𝑛
𝑢𝑢1 ≥ 2𝑢𝑢2 ≥ ⋯ ≥ 𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛
𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛 ≥ Ɛ =2
)𝑝𝑝𝑛𝑛(𝑛𝑛 + 1
Pros ConsPros Cons
Linear Programming Model 59
Group Decision Model • A new constrained optimization method
αPSO is proposed by Takahama and Sakai
(2004) which is a combination of the α
constrained method and PSO. Pros
• Simplistic Approach.
• Optimizes in minimal time frame.
• Can be used for many engineering problems.
Cons
• Not applicable in a constrained environment.
60
Decision Model
Group Decision Model
H-PSO
DEAAHP
For the study a decision model that integrates the following things
can be used:
• Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (handles multiple criteria)
• Fuzzy logic (lessens the drawbacks of AHP)
• Data Envelopment Analysis (handles group decision)
• Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (handles the linear
programming model and minimizes running time).
61