IMMIGRATION, AGEING AND THE CHANGING POPULATION:

IMPLICATIONS FOR DATA COLLECTION

byGraeme Hugo

ARC Australian Professorial FellowProfessor of Geography and Director of the National Centre

for Social Applications of GISThe University of Adelaide

Presentation to NatStats 2010: Measuring What Counts: Economic Development, Wellbeing and Progress in 21st Australia, Sydney

Convention and Exhibition Centre16 September 2010

Outline of Presentation • Introduction• The Population Issue in Australia• Key Measurement Issues and

Recommendations• Ageing• Population and Environment• Regional Development• The New Migration• Conclusion

“Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing”

Jean-Philippe CotisChief Economist, OECDMarch 2005

Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates

Source: World Bank, 2006

Current Australian Demographic Situation, 2009

Source: ABS 2010

Population 22,155,400

Annual Growth Rate 2.0

Annual Growth Rate of 65+ 3.0

Net Overseas Migration 277,710

Natural Increase 154,899

% Aged 65+ 13.3

Australia’s Population Dilemma

• On the one hand there is a need to grow the population because- A replacement task – 42% of the present workforce are baby boomers- Net increases in demand for labour

• On the other there are substantial environmental constraints which will be exacerbated by climate change

Structural Ageing:Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B)

Source: ABS 2008 Projections

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

85+

Age

Perc

enta

ge C

hange 2006-2021 (25.6 m)

2006-2031 (28.8 m)

Australia: Projected Growth of the Population by Age, 2021 to 2041

Source: ABS 2005 and 2008 Projections, Series B

Number % p.a. growth Number % p.a. growth

2021 15,360,738 16,527,3652031 15,842,185 0.31 18,003,557 0.862041 16,271,981 0.27 19,514,934 0.81

2021 4,471,973 4,395,4532031 5,780,139 2.60 5,732,080 2.692041 6,696,907 1.48 6,759,002 1.66

2005 Projections 2008 Projections

Aged 15-64

Aged 65+

Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data

Baby Boomers 2006

• 27.5% of Australian Population

• 41.8% of Australian Workforce

Addressing Ageing

• There are no silver bullets – no single policy intervention will counteract the effects of ageing

• Introduction of a number of strategies involving Productivity, Participation and Population is essential

• To be most effective they need to be introduced well before the ageing “crunch”

• Demographically Australia is better placed than any OECD country to effectively cope with ageing but it needs to begin appropriate policy intervention now

Environmental Constraints on Population

• Long recognised

• Mismatch between water and population

• Exacerbated by climate change

The Mismatch Between Water and Population

(Nix 1988, 72)

Far North

Australia

(%)

Southern

Australia

(%)

Population 2 82

Potentially Arable Land 4 65

Annual Mean Surface Run Off 52 27

Trend in Annual Total Rainfall 1960 – 2009 (mm/10years)

Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2010

Australia: Rainfall and Population in 2006

Australian rainfall trends% of Total

2006 2006 population Growth rate

Declining 89.6 17,749,462 0.98Stationery 7.23 1,432,090 0.70Increasing 3.17 628,865 -1.57

Rethinking Australia’s Settlement System

• Most Australians will continue to live in capital cities and developing more sustainable large metropolitan areas is an important national priority

• However we must also consider to what extent our settlement system is the most efficient for the Twenty First Century and do the science to see whether modification of the settlement system would be advisable and possible

Issues to be Considered

• Several of fastest developing sectors of the economy have a strong non-metropolitan location (mining and tourism)

• There is already net outmigration of the Australian-born from capital cities like Sydney

Issues to be Considered (cont)

• Increased international migration to non-metropolitan areas

• Environmental constraints of southeastern Australia

Sydney Statistical Division: Net Internal and International Migration, 1971 to 2006

Source: NSW Department of Planning

Key issue is that there will be compromises and trade offs between imperative for population growth and environmental constraints

The New Paradigm of Migration• Increased significance of temporary

migration

• Greater share of “onshore” migration

• Increased significance of SSRM scheme

• Increased scale of emigration from Australia

• Increased skill focus of migration

• Increased security focus in international migration

Data Challenges

• Ageing Population

• Population and Environment

• Regional Development

• The New Migration

Challenges of Ageing for Data Collection

• Need for more sensitive breakdown of older population - 65+ too broad

• Too small samples in surveys

• Too much focus on working population

• Need to understand and monitor dynamics of baby boomers

• Need for greater ability to examine changing spatial distribution

- internal migration data

- need for more sensitivity toward ageing in small area data

• Key issues for data linkage to study dynamics and transitions

• Need to disaggregate effects of ageing on key areas of the labour market

Population and Environment: Data Challenges

• Need to be able to integrate environmental and population data

• Data linkage issues

• Need for more ecologically defined areas for standard data collection – coastal regions, high quality agricultural land

• Need to be able to monitor environmental deterioration and relate to population

• Need to relate population change to climate change hotspots

Regional Development: Data Challenges

• Need to be able to identify better the labour market area surrounding regional centres and relate all data collections to them to study things like labour market dynamics

• Ageing in rural Australia – a key issue – over representation bias in service provision to urban areas

• Examination of dynamics of population change

- role of international migration

- internal migration

Regional Development: Data Challenges (cont.)

• Economic dynamics of non-metropolitan areas not well captured

• Measuring social capital• Indigenous population of particular significance• Develop potential of mesh blocks• Measuring regional identification, social

catchments and communities of interest• Measuring service provision in regions

International Migration Issues

• Alternative definition of the national population• Failure to change thinking on measurement of migration

and settlement to take account of transnationalism• Need for more regional settlement sensitivity in data

collection on migration• Failure to identify visa categories in migrant data

collections• Data linkage possibilities• Focus on migration rather than settlement in

international migration• Need for a study of Australian diaspora

Alternative Definitions of the National Population

 

• Citizens resident on the night of the census;

• Citizens absent on the night of the census but whose households provide information on them;

• Permanent residents who are resident on the night of the census.

Diagrammatic Representation of Different National Populations

Source: Hugo 2007, p.354

In international migration research there has been a paradigm shift from a focus away from traditional conceptualisations of migration as a permanent shift from one country to another toward transnationalism. Transnationalism focuses on the linkages which are set up between origins and destinations by migration, including non permanent movements. Ways of measuring stocks of migrants however remain the same.

Temporary Migrants either…

• Included within “permanent” migrant populations

• Ignored altogether• Included with short term tourists as

visitors

Need to modify current citizenship question in census to identify the type of migrants from the overseas-born

Australia: Number of Persons Temporarily Present, 1997 to 2009 as at 30th June

Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues

Impact of non permanent population on labour market, housing market etc needs to be ascertained

Data Linkage Possibilities

• Very promising developments of linking 2006 census data with Settlement Data Base information

• New technological developments make it more possible

• Confidentiality issues

• Other data sets – Medicare, Taxation etc.

Need for a Focus on Settlement

• Australia is one of the countries most influenced by migration. There is a key responsibility to facilitate settlement. Responsibility does not stop on arrival of migrants

• Post arrival services have declined• Key issues of refugee-humanitarian settler and other

vulnerable groups• General agreement among migration scholars that

longitudinal approaches are the best way to understand the adjustment processes and to develop effective policies to assist it

An Australian Diaspora?

• One million or more Australian’s living and working overseas

• Little known about them

• Highly skilled group

• Potential to engage in Australia – permanent, temporary and virtual return

A Census of the Australian Diaspora?

• 2010 international round of censuses

• Potential for aggregating the unit record data from all other countries where there are Australian’s present

• Need to do this now

• International cooperation through strong cooperative linkages between statistical agencies

The Australian Population Issue: What is Needed?

• Currently there is an unproductive debate between “pro growth” and “stop growth” lobbies

• There must be trade offs and compromises which facilitate growth with sustainability, informed by the best information and knowledge available across all relevant disciplines

• Regardless, there will be substantial continued population growth over the next two decades but we need to carefully consider(a) How much growth and not adopt unsubstantiated aspirational population targets?(b) Where is that growth best located?

• Data will be crucial to this consideration

• Australia is demographically better placed than most OECD countries to cope with economic, demographic and environmental changes over the next two decades

• The last National Inquiry into Australia’s population was in 1971 and the time is appropriate for an informed multidisciplinary investigation into Australia’s future population

• This investigation should engage the best science but at the same time have a broad engagement with the views of the total community

• There is a large potential to be bipartisan in population policy• Crucial importance of developing a vision of the population of

the future which is sustainable

Conclusion• Australia has been very well served by its statistical system in

population• Data collection needs to not only keep pace with social, economic

and demographic change but be ahead of it so it can chart its dynamics

• Population has always been a national issue of major significance but it has recently been given a higher profile

• It is likely that there will be a substantial national discussion on migration issues and for the first time we may have a national population policy

• The population debate more than most other areas of public policy has been ill informed and influenced by interest groups

• It is of critical significance that both the debate and the policy are informed by relevant and timely information