Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC Slide 2 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE,
IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Global Climate Change: How Did We Get Here?
What Do We Do Now? Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of
Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State
University Ames, Iowa 50011 [email protected] Focus the Nation
Forum Iowa State University 31 January 2008 Slide 3 CO 2, CH 4 and
temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux,
F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern
Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using
deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters,
203, 829-843. Natural cycles Pattern repeats about every 100,000
years Slide 4 IPCC Third Assessment Report Slide 5 CLIMATE SCIENCE
INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Business as Usual 950 ppm (2100)
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature January 2008 385 ppm Slide 6
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Slide 7 Slide 8 Slide 9 Slide 10 Slide 11 Slide 12 Slide 13 CLIMATE
SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Hansen, Scientific
American, March 2004 Slide 14
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Slide 15 Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones
and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from
multiple simulations. Natural cycles Slide 16 Natural and
anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et
al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands
indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not
Natural Slide 17 Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research Slide 18 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Slide
19 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed
to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political
decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption
Slide 20 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced
Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary
Mitigation Possible Slide 21 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers Slide 22 Slide 23 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE
UNIVERSITY What Do We Do Now? Serve as a model for energy
efficiency and minimal impact on global climate change President
Geoffroys Advisory Committee Conduct research on both mitigation of
and adaptation to climate change Slide 24 CLIMATE SCIENCE
INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Conduct a full-scale university
energy audit that includes a review of ISU's electrical, heating,
cooling and transportation systems. The audit will provide a
baseline for measuring progress. Develop plans for reducing energy
use in each of the audited areas. Develop energy conservation and
climate change guidelines for all new construction and major
renovation projects. Ensure that students are well-informed about
alternate energy sources, energy conservation and global climate
change issues. What Do We Do Now? President's Advisory Committee on
Energy Conservation and Global Climate Change Slide 25 CLIMATE
SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Chris Ahoy Chris Ahoy
Floyd Barwig Floyd Barwig Joseph Fuller Joseph Fuller Devin Hartman
Devin Hartman Tahira Hira Tahira Hira Elizabeth Hoffman Elizabeth
Hoffman George Kraus George Kraus Mark Kushner Mark Kushner Warren
Madden Jeri Neal Brian Phillips Colleen Rogers Pat Schnable Kate
Schwennsen Eugene Takle What Do We Do Now? President's Advisory
Committee on Energy Conservation and Global Climate Change Slide 26
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What Do We Do
Now? ISUs Research Role North American Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment
(MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA) Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal
Forecasts (MRED) (proposed to NOAA) ISU Climate Science Initiative
Slide 27 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY North
American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Midwest
Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA)
Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal Forecasts (MRED) (proposed to
NOAA) ISU Climate Science Initiative What Do We Do Now? ISUs
Research Role Slide 28 Terrain and land-sea boundaries in the
Hadley Centre global climate model Slide 29 Regional climate model
information from global model results Slide 30 CLIMATE SCIENCE
INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment
(MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA) Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal
Forecasts (MRED) (proposed to NOAA) ISU Climate Science Initiative
What Do We Do Now? ISUs Research Role Slide 31 CLIMATE SCIENCE
INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY How Will New Trends and
Variability of Regional Climate Change Affect Crop &
horticulture production Soil erosion Conservation practices Water
supplies Streamflow Water quality Beef and pork daily gains
Livestock breeding success Milk and egg production Crop and
livestock pests and pathogens Agricultural tile drainage systems
Natural ecosystem species distributions Human health Building
designs Recreation opportunities River navigation Roads and bridges
Who will provide authoritative information? How will it be
delivered? Slide 32 Proposed new Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) Slide 33 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE
UNIVERSITY Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) Create
seasonal climate forecasts for the Midwest Use ensembles of
advanced regional climate models interactive web-based
decision-making tools, Translate and enhance the latest NOAA
climate forecast products to maximize economic gains Use
high-volume customized delivery and feedback through the county
level extension service network Slide 34 CLIMATE SCIENCE
INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment
(MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA) Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal
Forecasts (MRED) (proposed to NOAA) ISU Climate Science Initiative
What Do We Do Now? ISUs Research Role Slide 35 CLIMATE SCIENCE
INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment
(MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA) Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal
Forecasts (MRED) (proposed to NOAA) ISU Climate Science Initiative
What Do We Do Now? ISUs Research Role Slide 36 CLIMATE SCIENCE
INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY ISU Climate Science Initiative
Launched by Vice President Brighton Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS
have taken leadership, but broad campus research participation will
be emphasized Build on research strengths in regional climate
modeling, agriculture, water, landscapes, engineering Slide 37
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Summary Climate
change of the past 35 years is not consistent with natural
variations over the last 400,000 years Humans have contributed over
half of the warming of the last 35 years Mitigation efforts,
although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming
until the latter half of the 21st century Adaptation strategies
should be developed for the next 50 years President Geoffroy has a
goal to make ISU a model of energy conservation Iowa State has the
capacity to build on its strengths and provide authoritative
climate information for decision-makers
