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Firman Rismara
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
I. INTRODUCTION1. Background2. Research Objective3. Scope of Research
II. METHODOLOGY1. Research Area2. Research Procedure
a. Land Use Change Model (M-CA)- Data Preparation- Model Validation- Land Use Scenario
b. Hydrologic Model (HEC-HMS)- Data Preparation- Hydrologic Model Development- Hydrologic Model Calibration
III. RESULT AND DISCUSSION1. Land Use Change Model (M-CA)
a. Land Use Patternb. Driving Factorc. Model Validationd. Forecasting Land Use Scenario
2. Hydrologic Model (SWAT)a. Model Calibrationb. Impact of Land Use Change on
Water Availability
IV. CONCLUSION
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Upper Stream Area
Lower Stream Area
•Build up area bigger than cropland/forest area;•Run Off discharge bigger than infiltration/percolation;•Soil type;
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
The population growth increase the demand of settlement andagricultural area;
Human activities in the upstream areas change the hydrologic condition;
Government Regulation Public Work Ministry and The Ministry of Forestry Republic of Indoneisa,
No. 19/1984, No.059/Kpts-II/1984, No.124/Kpts/1984
Critical Watershed Cimanuk Watershed
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Land Use Change VS Hydrology
1 12
3 4
4
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
The Objectives of this research are :1. Forecast the land use change for the next 20 years in the upper
stream of Cimanuk Watershed using Markov Chain-Cellular Automata (M-CA) Model.
2. Assess the impact of land use change prediction on water availability using hydrology model (SWAT).
Problem StatementResearch question related to the objectives are:1. What are the major trends of future land use change?• How has the land use in the research area changed during the
period of 1991 - 2002 and 2002 - 2010?• What are the trends of land use change in the research area
during 1991 - 2010?2. How are the impacts of land use change to water availability in the future?
Scope, limitation and assumption of this research are:
1. Research area as a boundary of hydrology system in this research is theupper stream of Cimanuk Watershed.
2. This research is intended to integrate Remote Sensing (RS) andGeographical Information System (GIS) for forecasting land usechange in Cimanuk Watershed.
3. Assessing the impact of land use change to water availability at theresearch area by employing hydrology model.
4. Based on the limitation of the M-CA Model, land use type only dividedinto 4 (four) types, i.e.: grassland, agriculture, settlement and forest.
5. In this research, hydrology model is only employed to explore theeffect of land use change to water yield, by comparing hydrograph foreach land use. Thus, modeling result will be calibrated with the fieldmeasurement data.
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
1. Research Area
2. Research Procedure :
a. Land Use Change Model (M-CA)
• Data Preparation
• Model Validation
• Land Use Forecasting Scenario
b. Hydrologic Model (SWAT)
• Data Preparation
• Hydrologic Model Development
• Hydrologic Model Calibration
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
The Upper Stream of Cimanuk Watershed
Administrative :Garut Regency in West Java Province- Indonesia
Geographic position :7o S – 7o 30’ S and 107o 30” E – 108o 15’ E.
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Land Use Change VS Hydrology
MODEL
Land Use Model Hydrologic Model
M-CA SWAT
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
An important stage in the development of any predictive change model is validation.Typically, one gauge means the understanding of the process and the power of themodel by using it to predict some periods of time when the land use conditions areknown. This is then used as a test for validation.
Kappa is essentially a statement of proportional accuracy. Kappa is computed as:
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Land Use Change Analysis During Period 1991 - 2002
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Accuracy Assessment
Base on the validation process ,the result of validation using
Kappa Index is 86% and its
categorized as fit.
Forecasting Land Use Base on Scenario
1. Scenario 1 (base line scenario)Assumsion :• Land use change in future is the continuity of land use change in the
past ;• The demand of land use in the future (until the year 2030) is the
continuity of the demand of land use change 2002-2010;• There are no spatial policies applied, all of areas inside the study area
are possible to change to another land use.
Forecasting Land Use Base on Scenario 1
According to the change detection from the land use classification in year1991, simulated year 2010, 2020 and 2030, it can be seen that the settlement,forest and grassland area are increasing, whereas the agriculture tent todecrease.
Forecasting Land Use Base on Scenario
1. Scenario 2 (Spatial Policy Applied)Assumsion :• The demand of the land use is still the same with baseline;
• Spatial policies is apply where forest area based on forest
designation map from BAPPEDA West Java Province is not allowedto change to other land use.
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Forecasting Land Use Base on Scenario 2
According to the change detection from the land use classification in year1991, simulated year 2010, 2020 and 2030, it can be seen that the settlement,forest and grassland area are increasing, whereas the agriculture tent todecrease.
WaterShed Delineation
Climatology Condition
Land Use and Soil Characteristic
Model Calibration
The model calibration done by adjusting the initial abstraction, curve number and imperviousvalues, until the result match with the data measurement. The process was completed manuallyby repeatedly adjusting the parameters, computing, and inspecting the goodness of fit betweenthe computed and observed hydrographs.
During calibration process by using half-year daily data (feb 1st, 2010 – July 31st, 2010), theaccuracy only achieved 0.523 of R-square.Performance of the model was objectively gave a good efficiency value (NSE) of 0.67 and 42.9%of relative volume errors (RVe).Using these validation tests it can be stated that the model is satisfactory accepted.
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
Impact of Land Use Changes Base on Scenarios to Water Availability
Two hydrographs were simulated by using the same parameters in which was used duringmodel calibration and validation.
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
It was found that land use changes in the area were mainly dominated by expansionof settlement area with the annual rate of change 1.17 % during 1991-2002, followed byforest (0.45 %) and grassland (0.46 %) in the same period. Agriculture is decrease inperiod 1991-2002 with annual rate of change -0.57 %. The trend of land use change in1991-2002 showed that the area faces the expansion of settlement, forest andgrassland area and the decrease of agriculture
Based on the findings, it can be concluded that settlement area were significantlyincrease during the period 1991-2002 and causing the pressures in the research area.The simulated hydrograph obtain the peak flow and water yield information for twodifferent land use scenarios. The values of each scenario peak flow are 81.3 m3/s and81.10 m3/s for scenario 1 and scenario 2, scenario. While the value of water yield are279,893,000 m3 and 280,878,000 m3 for scenario 1 and scenario 2.
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University
THANK YOU
Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management
Bogor Agricultural University