72
3J5i3 $I[qAq DMI)I$IOW 5IT4 ?4OflDA$I31MI JA1DO UMA 3MLD ii1O .J buwbH obi2 nEcrrAni3dz .A o1 .oM ni*toW HD5IA3 2351 DIMOMOD3 qO UAHSIUfl JAMOITAM unvA fl uflo sM OOI 8UO AM bhdmED QQI uuid1 5Iw Jnrnmo3 1ii1q1H .rioqqu Iinrifl uoin bbivotq noibrwo1 ni li3rIoiET4 r!T o 'JiviriU th ni1m zhbrnono33 nihmA niirJ r1i ni 1nEqi3rii$q 'd bthivoiq ioiIL3 frnoIO .qofla1iow imonoo noiiu1iinI ivooH r1i brie qofla*xoW 2noitn3ilqqA oE3ifD iIut •woi U2 Iulqbrl bbiv'oiq ao1n 2u1 bns bi&bi5I ncfmI obiuD ,numirbI .H 2irIT r1E-i in1I3x bbivoiq iobiV tht bnB nEmAnifb ithnA ,1vEkEfDI 2noiriiqo 'nA .ibu1 iod&1 bn. thwoiD iii cnrroiq fl31&1 5I3M Io rwq i iqq .u5i 3imono33 b uiiufl IsnoiiBM orli bo off1 ion bn iothui r1i lo orIi biqx 2idi1 hA .nErnAnirIz2 .A o1 bn 3iob1&s 33Ir1H iiIO .J bli$wb3 'd QQ1 © noiirmq ii3iIqx iuoriiiw bioup d m 2dqJng11Eq owl bzx ol ion 4x1 b noii florI di oi rivi i ijon © nibuI3ni iibio hhñ i&Ii bbivoiq

ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

3J5i3 $I[qAq DMI)I$IOW 5IT4

?4OflDA$I31MI JA1DO UMA 3MLD

ii1O .J buwbH obi2 nEcrrAni3dz .A o1

.oM ni*toW

HD5IA3 2351 DIMOMOD3 qO UAHSIUfl JAMOITAM unvA fl uflo sM OOI

8UO AM bhdmED QQI uuid1

5Iw Jnrnmo3 1ii1q1H .rioqqu Iinrifl uoin bbivotq noibrwo1 ni li3rIoiET4 r!T o 'JiviriU th ni1m zhbrnono33 nihmA niirJ r1i ni 1nEqi3rii$q 'd bthivoiq

ioiIL3 frnoIO .qofla1iow imonoo noiiu1iinI ivooH r1i brie qofla*xoW 2noitn3ilqqA oE3ifD iIut •woi U2 Iulqbrl bbiv'oiq ao1n 2u1 bns bi&bi5I ncfmI obiuD ,numirbI .H 2irIT r1E-i in1I3x bbivoiq iobiV tht bnB nEmAnifb ithnA ,1vEkEfDI

2noiriiqo 'nA .ibu1 iod&1 bn. thwoiD iii cnrroiq fl31&1 5I3M Io rwq i iqq .u5i 3imono33 b uiiufl IsnoiiBM orli bo off1 ion bn iothui r1i lo orIi biqx 2idi1 hA .nErnAnirIz2 .A o1 bn 3iob1&s 33Ir1H iiIO .J bli$wb3 'd QQ1 ©

noiirmq ii3iIqx iuoriiiw bioup d m 2dqJng11Eq owl bzx ol ion 4x1 b noii florI di oi rivi i ijon © nibuI3ni iibio hhñ i&Ii bbivoiq

Page 2: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

àO rnqB nbhoW 5IHffVI QQl u3rnd3I

MOI1DASIHTMI JA1DO UT4A 3MI5ID

TDAMTflA

3d1 lo rio i (3rnil 13J3 bn) iqa oia iiri 3mh3 lo nithcv lo ib rfif1 dT

Ino *iow 1&thiqm3 iuO .((E8I) 131313u9 orib thio d1 ni 23lssuq ib1o

ioqiq aidT .o1udimB irfqE1oo bridonu io b3v1do lo 3Iu5I di loll i 3Z)flEI1JW ir1i i&11

rni3lqxo oi 1rnibivibrii oi rIfihvo3 l1uon3 31i3i 2noi1313ini lEioo2 51311w I3bom B Jr13251q

JBio b x3bni linuin B bivoiq l3bom 2ir1T .JJ31 3mh3 lo nBhJ3v '1i3-O1) r1ii1 3(11

3irlqB1o3 oi mho oi noiiosl3ini lBi3o lo 3sx3b 3111 suqrno n (13111w noi13B131r1i

ir1i bru 231qdni Bn3b lnsi3Thb iol 211u231 1B1imi vi xbni iuO .ni1 o1 bn linu

(fl3r11 oiw bnB nni1 rfou) rr1h3 'fl3q Iii 123r1ir1 SIB 2fIOii3Bl3lrIi 1Bi302 lo lfiuornis 3111

l3blum ni 31diifrI tomlB bni (i3ddo1 bnB 'niliud 1Ltjl21s) 23mh3 uoh siorn ni 3fl13born

bnfl w bnB 2sio11o LEnimh3-non 01 bi1qqs o2lB i noiloB1ni [Bi3o lo xobni 3dT .qti bnB

.siorb gnuloorb2 ni noil131rIi 1si1nB1du i 513r11 iith

3Jobi33E 331J1H 133E1D .J biwbI 3idnono33 lo in3rrlrrBq3U imono33 lo lfl3mtUSq3U

'1i213vinU bthvlBH 131r13D 131J1111iJ Eli 8ElO AM bi1dmBD ii213vinU blB'rIBH

8E1O AM 3bndmED 5HHM bnB

n&rnlni3r1o .A o1 23imono3H lo in3milBq3U

oB3ifID lo 'Ji13vinU 13511e c11Q 12B3 I I

VEôO ii oB3ir1D

Page 3: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

inq9! ensb uroe s bn9lq 9ffl 91 iaau& io19up19uQ Ii'iip i 19b iusrl rw 9beaoq 9mrnorI'I 91Jp noiisiimi'b

tuoa K1 i1si9uQ .A 29a01b 9iJJOi (19 9i2911(IfiSfl

noibuboiinl .1

9(11 (Ii Th9'( 19q f19iiiD b9lbnurI 9(10 19q 9ffliID aIJOh9a fl9V9 915 91911T

1.OWI lo 9151 9mi1 alJoh9e 9(11 91hJ01) isr1i 9mm ai 91Ui1 thu 9iS1 b9iiriU IsrioTh9noD l9bnu '(Iirl9nIJD 915 -O bss a9Ism nsDn9mA-rISDilIA lo o\0C

iaiurns!s '(Ib9flimbs sriO .(cioiisdoiq no io sloisq no Jis tii .9.1) noiaiviqiJ 1619V9 cu

sioi1lid i ZU 9(11 lii 9(11113 rnoil 95msb Isfol 9111 10 9ismii9 'bijia 91-IT C.m9ldoiq lsboa 189g151 e's3n9mA as b9iail asw 9rniIz) a'(9vuja C1

oa ai s(IIVIIDB 15(111-rinD 93(1 19VO910M .9Df1SV9191 Di1oq auoivdo esrl 9111113 10

ai 9mm lo biiie 9111 ioiaid fasv S rbJJa asrl 9mh3 tfl9lOiV l)(IS 1119e9lqirlmO

.9D11913a LfibOa 01 tristioqmi (11sDianrrtni

a'191D91 moil awollol '{IIsiin9aa9 9miD 110 9'IuiSl9iil aDimorIOD9 rn9bom 9rlT

ailuasi rnn 19bom aith nI .iivii3s Isnimi13 Isrioiisi lo l9bom a'(8QI) lsiirl9ioq 10 leoD 9111 fii9W11JO ISflifflflD 5 01 91-11113 lo ajlI9n9d 9r11 (191-lW

((!1) fliv9J W1) fI3IFIfIH ..9) 91111519111 IsDniqm9 rio1 A .lrI9rrIrlalruJq

lo tuo 1liii1sri ailsi iarIi a isle 9viJslsqmoD 9111 lo no lo miaei bswollol lo a9Iftirlsup l9woI 9DJJbolq 93r19n919b lo a19v91 19cjir1 :l9bom a'19*)9 lo 9DrISV9191 91-Ft (10 euDol a'911115191i1 C31ffi011039 9(11 lo 11DIJM mi

bris 1sio1oboa 191S1 119V9 9(11 lo IsthJd9l S 9d 01 Cffl99 93f19fl919b

Isril misiD n9iIo rbs1w "ioivsri9d lrISiv9b" rio e911115191i1 1sDio1or13'1aq a.9mr13 10 a19v91 rnsIqx9 01 911111 oh 93r19fl919b bris Øi1SnoLf si

9a91-IT .ô8i ni EO. bn& 8Q1 ru 'O. lo ii smi 6iiq& 19 6 ewoila eJioqsrI 9fflu13 rrnouirw 1ff11

ar1oq91 smn muolinu sift su [liw sW .OQI ni CO. lo smir) £iiq&) -i9q s riliw b9usqmo sd ns lo iiIid6Iisv6 sisb lo 1D61 01 9Ub zqq airli 1uoduouft esibuJa noilssimiliv ion

Sm aibuia noiisimiiiV .noil6rrnoIrui lEDidqs1o9 ln9bflhiJC (111w e9ibuia rioiisimi1biv sill lo smog io iruioxs sm esibsiq niJioqsi ni esnsrb bsui ,siauuD6 siorn e nsse '1lfi19ns

1esue 01 nsbivs 01 mss ion esob sisdi tsvswoH .esi6l smh ni noii&imv I6loqmshsini .bsau 9Th 291bu1e noi sicnibiv susdw ILsDn6iedue agnibsb noilsh6v 1&noibs aao

.CQQI €1 19dm9U earneua mo-il I sismilas eidT *zoY wsLl 1QQ1 Iu[-bim 6 ni iarli bslloq9I .)QQI O1 oiu%D srITE

sv-uue ,diiu1 .msldoiq inshoqmi icom anOii6n 9(11 as bsieii CEW SiTiilD ilo1 eW94 28D\esmil -isindl to}l thoW ti i4 2U in b9diia9b 9-Is ailuesi

nsmss-i1 .9 (1inuJi1oqqo imorios 01 noiislsi a'smh no siuiis1i1 9ViCfZ9IX9 (16 016 Ci SiSrfT .(IQQI

.C91u1619111 9C9d1 01 noiiDuboirii 9Id6IJt6V S sbivoiq (O8f) nisiasrnsH bsm rioaliW

Page 4: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

10 I9v91 11S19V0 8ii iOf! ai 9IflilD lo b9q niIs.iiq iom 9th ISJIi 9V9i!9d eW lo e9iiiinIJp b9vl9ado 9th cijiw (qirianoiifil9l-non io) qidacIoii191 a!9v91 ith

iOffI 9111 16(11 9V9i19d 9W (C8t) 191919uç) niwo11o1 9r11B1 .9Dn9r19i9b silT .sqe bus smii 2CODS 9Dnsimv 9161 cii ci 9miD o iD9q26 sId&)ilqxsni

Sm sisril iud eO1 9r11 9rnia 91 ui 9211 &iibniioies srIi cisqmuii sibsm 19v0 116Dii6ms1b 1191151 9v6r1 01 am9sa 'iivibs IsnimilD 9lsriw 2926D ocis

'.isie bsiinU 9r11 Iii 11s11 flj 1191 29151 9bi)iffl0fi ii i CQt moi1 .91(111

ru e9biDimocl ni qoib Isiinsiedue IIsup9 us ainsrnhJDob (QQ1) simJ .çwins IIPJ sisI sill isvo sirfq1sbs1ir1

a9Df191911ib scr1i 918 29151 9miT) (11 29)119lsIIib Isioqmsrisirui 9111 26 SIE1 aA mIniDSqe sbiw S 2i 919111' .9Dqa 220138 9fflut) Ill 29911919111b 9111 d bsliswb sis

isq asbiDimorl .f I moil fu(181 cnoilsri acoDs asisi 9biifflofl 9,Z19V8 lo ui asisle bsiiriU 9th fi noillirn i9q esbiDunorl C.0I 01 r19b9W2 ui rioillirri

1(1011 csiSi 9fflilD ii9rli 111 '(19biW 9(I81 asith e9i6i biiriU silt riiritiW 8O8f E8€. oi 9ei9I W9VI 9811iV boOW9b15I ioI fiuiqfiD 19q 29111i13 auonse 800. \(1iD 91rIia s riiriiiw cisva .1iiD iinthA dissn iol siiqsD isq esmhD 2LJOIi92

lo i3niDslq bi&I 9111 nibn1Joian 9d ri& aiirw ib-dua eaois 'Oiaisvib sf11

bsd iDiIieib taX silt 9!IIIW arissth b9lbrujrl 19q 2911U1D asil iiD >hoY W9M

.cnsiib bibriur1 isq 29111113

29519VS 1r19291q91 219V91 9ffl1ID '11D (19111 ifl9brI9qsbfli 9Th 2f10121)9b '2ifI9fi 11

isth w 21191 eiieiisie psinsmsl1 .anoiaiDsb irisbrisqsbrn lo aisdmun sgisl lo

10119 )iislDrn(aoibi rnobnsi lo abslls 9111 lo 9911 9d b1ior1a 298i9V5 929(11

Jssi 9riT .flSSffl nouisliiqoq b9i)9qX9 9111 01 aob 9d bluoci a 11i bus arnisf lifl9iDi11u2 d bscIislqx9 9(1 twm 9DSqc 220136 29161 9JTIIiD (ii CSDII9iSIIib

.85915 liusislIth 9th ui (sDrisrIsi9b lo al9vSl 10) cnoiiibnoD DimOrIOD9 irii11ib

no snob n99d sc1 Jsrii *iow sviansixs srft lo 9iJ&9d w oi nilxuq aa9I 9Th Diqoi 929d1 hsq n1 .m91It

IdiIsi 'tno 9dJ sbivoiq a9bbiInod anoahqmo lsnoiJsniini ioI io flifib Oàf-91q mo11 ' -eaoi 10 n0iaeU)ib ifl9119)x9 n sbivoiq .8QI) mailED bns iscbiA .smhD lo noiiiruI9b miolinu

• .e9ibuIa 9mhD Isrioil&n sii I&iqT .&i 9bbimott 2.lJ iol m bsd lEIuDthsq 26W 08Q1 fl0I2291 9111 lo 9w6D988

.1E9( 19q tioillim mq abbimoai OOt8 nswJsci 9Th Ji 9eusD9d i1id iE(u311lsq i siiqs mq esmii) 2'(lO ilnthA isisi ccu)2ib 111w sw

2116111 lud %(iiD 9(11 aislns Isdi noiis!uqoq t2iluol sis1 sdl lo cbum sbubcu Ion asob noilBluqoq i '(II) J2iILJOJ-flOfl S flI 219V91 9m11) lasr1id rff .rioilsluqoq 2'(Ii) 9(11 lo Ilsq as bslnuoD ion Isq a9mh) 2u01192 Q1. rijiw n0s1O bnsIiioq

C

Page 5: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

Lii iDniD91q uisrli 9fflulD 9I0ffl 9VBL! '(11B19Li9 aiDniD9lq 'iiD l9LIfii iooq bs9bnJ iJ3(Ii 2a9LJe rnainiqm9 IBUeJ3D 119V9 ,19V9WOH .bnfi!aI n9iBi2 6b 9lbbirn j-1i lo stijil ioI 1nuox rts eiiai191mrb si& 1&o1 9Idsvl9edo Lii e9DrI9l9IIib

W9V1 Lii aiDniD9lq O1)B 10 .2.U 9f1J (U 9iiiD OD8 a9s1 9mrr) (IL (ioilsimv .(iiD )hOY

,obfiloa ia .ID9IIDIIIJII 19q 9fflflD lo 9iBI 9ffI1t B B(! £i1O9 jnioq ia isWO! ud j10q i3 .b9lbrnJri 19q 9fflh1D QE lo 9iB1 smhD B as11 aBanB*IA

9rnoDni 19r!id bns h9voq aa9I 9sliiqoq b9ifiDub9 I9ii9d B n9m'oIqm9ruJ b9lbnucl iq amii asci iiD *ioY w9M lo brnDslq iale srlT .iiq& 19q

n& woH .siiqBD 19q a9milD .II sr1 ithieib dftQi 19111i1s9w 9th 91111w erl9sthD '(cl iol b9irnJoxm sd 9e9fhi lo e9is 9fflu1) 9(FJ (Ii ar19i911ib IBDibSl 9r11

?.e9I tsth bniI ',11B19n9 9W '(1auoon 910M ¶a9imorio riiFiebni, li9rhi

9d IIBD esisi 9lTIi1D brnD9iqaaoiD 10 ViiD-8CO1D Lii noiisiisv 91ff lo 0\°OC risrhf 01.a9iJJdrIjjs £9IB IBDO! (U e9Dflsl9IIib d b9nisIqxs

O1DE e9i61 9(fli1D lo 9D(IEIiSV r1u1 B ni'(1iiau( iol ifI9fflsliup9i DiaBd 9riT

iii a9Dn9i9111b IsnOiiDsa-C20iD 'd bsiDibsIq 9DrIBrlaV 91ff 9VOdB brIB 19v0) ssqe .smID Juods anoiaiDsb 'eJfl9B aao'lDB 93fl$hBvOD 9vLtiaoq £ C (erloitibno InDo!

eirl eJDsIIfi (19v1i1eoq IBflifflIT) B 9t11039d of noibb a'in9B siio cisriW

fIB '(nw flOafisi 0(1 ai 919th fi9fhi 9ffl1 lo 9111 6 191(19 01 tioith9b a'10cfrii9n nortsluqoq 9th of 9a0b 9d bkioria (aI9vsI 9mrnnBdw a rbua) 91u1i1 9iB916

smOD9d of anoiaiDsb 'ajn9B 01DB aflOlbBl9itIi svzjzaoq .91uJII 16(11 lo tisstii '(d bsiDibslq a9161 9th moil i11ib 111w asiBi smrn 9thD isdi 131b9'lq aIsrurrnlD

{11siirisiadua i11ib hliw asisi rnit isthi bns aDiiarI9fDBisr1D DicEd 'CSiixD 9(11

sviiiaoq san1i lo 9Dri9iaiX9 9111 iioqqua aiIua9i lsDniqrns iuO .anoiisDoL aaois smn luods anoieb9b isrhi '(ihhidiaaoq srhi 1D9(91 '(IdstiolmoD bris ariOiiDEl9inIi

ri6916 IBDOI S flifhfiW in9bn9q9bni SIB

9W 1&19n9 ni .9q6q srIi fU 19)6! b9WDIb sd 111w JIus, 9c9rb 9)ubOlq srli anoiaa191 9fTF° *ioY w9kl iol 0OE- nsswi9d lo £$( us eu arihd a9iudhils 8916 !soI 101 ciiHo1jno iscO bull

ni noinn '(ib-o1D .8Q1 ni .2.U 9di aeom asiJi ml OC ivo 'IJrIik bus 2JDnbsiq iiiD 9c1 0) r1iat 03 161 ei 9)fl6llbV flini$m91 9(11 hue Jud e 5I 19r1ir1 )6rIw9moe bI9i OI

.3n9brl9q9bni 9Th 91D iuods enoieb9b a1fl9S 919(IW bbom l riiiw 9!diisqmoD Iso1 bnil o(1w ((?(I) is)i bns 9IiD lo enibni1 9(1110 9viJ1oqqu ei sis aiift no *iow m011

.sfJuo' noieoU lo ',9v1ue s nieu enoibsl9ini

Page 6: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

2

OfiL L6ff2 9L6 L6I916 10 1G q12cfl2210u u q,iucuiu uq ooqoLq (j)-j626 WOq6 9L6 qGLlAGq ILOW 1}J6 A0161. W062 (266 Iuq6Lw9Uu 9uq UGfl (j)) 1uX o,L66qouJ' 1p6b6LCGU1960t 96tJ2' !U OlIL woqG11U bSLI OflL P!1 10 UI WG 9t9 P6146L C0W6 9JOfl1 PGC9fl2G MG JJSA6 9U 6x1L9 GL66 0

C91J 6116C[ flJG A9LI9IJC6 O CIJW6 L962 0!6L 2b9C6

Gwb!L!c9, woq6f2' L9IPGL o !J1n2lIr6 OM 2oc!91 !u16L9c1!ou2 CnJ 6 GUGL9IG uq OMJ31P626 COUJW6UI2 9L6 UO1 CL!I!c12w2 01 1116 69L1!6L woq6Ja Mplcp MGLG U01 wo1A916q 921P6!L q91sCUUJ6 9L69 12 21111113 suq ML!P1 (J3) MpC13 062 uqq niq IMO q2Iucr q2rLpn1ou2 u1jJJ6 0U6 UJ9IOL 6xgWbJ6 01 9 bL!oL W0G 01 Wfl111b16 6dfl!j!pL9 J91 12 6Wbp4C911X UI IU 1P6

Iu6Lq6b6IJq6uc6 gIJq CUW6 L962 6C0UJ6 JJ6 9A6L96 o TuqGbGuq6u0pAi0fl2 92 9JJ 9g6U12 6C0UJ6 Ix6q' CLUJJ9J q6C2OU2 J026 1JJ611JJ6 6xb6c16q A9L!91JC6 O CLW6 L9162 9CL022 C!62 IU 1JJ6 GXILGUJG JJT2 T2

JTXGq 961Jf2 JOM6L fjJG q6L66 0 iUGL9CI0U2 9C1022 96U2 uq 6UC6 qGCT.6926

JJ6 Uf1UJ6L 0 ixq 96IJ1211J626 WO6J2' MG uq I:1J91 ff6 A9U9UC6 9C1022 L0C9I!62 MJJ 6 9 rrucj:rou 0M6 6X911J!1JG 1JJ6 J!WU qI2pJpffpou2 0 CLUJ6 L9162 fP91 916 q6lG1mU6q pA

uGppoL2' pfl MJJO 916 IJOf J6W2GJA62 TIJIJfI6UC69pI6 (x6q 6u243 MV6U9U 916 UI1GUCGq pA qJGL U6!JJp0L2 iq () 96U12 M0 Jf1GUCG flJGTL1j16 b0bffJ9f0U 2 qyqqq IJ0 1M0 Cj92262 0 96U2 (i) 96Uf2 M0 !IJUSIGIJCG

uq 0 ff6!1 1J6!Jp0L2. q6c2Tou 9p0111 CUWU!91 9CI!!!162j2 3 113626 woq62'96U2 q6c1210u2 40 b9Lj C1b916 111 CUUJ6 916 9 f1UCP0U 0 OMU 9gTpf162

jJJ2 b9b61 bLG2GIJf2 1M0 w0q6J2 MJJ6I.6 96IJ12 916 9LL9U6 OU 9 J9111C6 9uq

JJ9 bLo/q6 ff2 M!W 9 U9PTLS! Uq6x 0 ff6 6L66 O 2OC9 !UI6L9CI0UO 1JJ026 U ff6 q9l91. WOL6OA6L' 0111 W062 A6 112 62W9J6 b9L9w66L2CL0224!UJG C0UJb9L!20tJ2 O m0q6J2 bL6qct q2uprTfoU2 1p1 916 2!UJ!191C9U 6 U26q U 6111361 JJAbOl}J62!2 162113J 01 TU C1022-CLTUJ6' CL022.2b9C6 9uq

M04( 9J20 O62 U0 bL6uI 9 111692(116 0 ff6 q68L66 0 20C9f !U1619C1!01.12 1P1

19162 OAGL 2b9C6 (Mjncp q062 U0 266111 fO 6 2flbbOLfGq TU 1JJ6 q9I9) j2

I6UCj2 o bLGqq 9 TIJG unwp (IT2r19JJX pio) o qepuq q21upnpou2 o CLTuJGUJGCJJ9III2UJ2 0L GXbJ9T1J1U ff626 !U16L9C1!01J HOMGAGL' 11,1021 O 11J12 MOL1(

A91T9UC62 0J CLTUJ6 19162 9C1022 c!1!62' uq 1392 btGeGuIGq c9uqTq9lG(jo)) LL6AT012 MOLJ( 1392 2jJOMU fl591 bo2TpAG !UIGL9CITOU2 C911 bloqnc6 131g13

!1J1619C1!0U2 uq CLTUJ6 (6 J9JJ (jo)' 911q yjnLbpA 2JJJ6TGL uq A!2IJUAM6 bL626U1 IMO UJ062 11191 prrijq OU 1116 bL6A1or MOL1( OU 2OCT91

131 0L6L 10 11J9J<6 261126 0 1136 COA9LI9UCG 9CL022 96U12 1P'1 MG TU TU 1136

Page 7: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

9DfthIIEV 9111 :1hJ291 lfiDiftfl 9ffl62 sill 9bivCYlq 2lSbom thoa t.2noi2iD9b i 2911!D lo 91qm2 & aois (rioiisluqoq lo iooi 916LJ2 9f11 esmil) sii emhD

'(liD 1ID69 iii 2in9f3 bsxil b rloiiloqolq sill 10 noiiDnuI issriilnon s 01 !sups (rioiisluqoq lo 1001 sifiupe sill s(d bsir1isw) 29151 9fflulD lo 9DflfiIThv 9111 91ni1

smiJ insbnsqsbni ssw anoi2iDsb us Ii bsqxs bluow sno isiFi

.2.U 9(11 (11 29IT11ID 10 '(lSiISV iol 9151(11129 bn& '(IISDiliqmS IDSI aiiIi 92L1 9W

2201S 29151 9ffluID lo 9DflStlSV 9111 '(dbshibslq ain9s bsxil lo rioifioqoiq 9rfl

sssb 9(11 lo x9bfu ns rlliw au asbivoiq airiss bsxil lo noihoqolq eiriT .esiiiD

fIOii)Sl9ifli lSiDO2 lo lsvsl 9(11 wojj )kS ([SD sw bns rioibsisini l51D02 lo 9(1 ns 2in9s bsxil lo isdmun 9c1T .Smul 19v0 1o asmhD 22OiDS esnsrb

airiss bsxil owl risswisd snslath bsiDSqxs srli (1) :aysw '(f[S ff1 bsisiqisini Isdrrmn 9111 02 aflOiiDSl9irli l51D02 9V1i120q illiw quoi S 10 9S12 b9iD9qX9 sift ai

ns inss bxi1 () 9112 quo 151D02 9fi19V6 Sift esfIImlsi9b ein913 b9XII lo l9dmxJrl sift oe noitm atodr1isn iirli, svisado Ion ob orlw eiriss s bswsiv

01 b9iDsrIrIOD ion 2i 1IiT1I nodsliiqoq sill 10 915(12 srli lD9fl91 '(i3ffl 2if19B bsxil lo S 25 (1992 sd lai4 ns lnss bsxil lo lsdmun sill (C) bns aiodr1iri 119111

lsboa wok I srii 29)101 .nothsisini lsiDo2 wok isdi 29)101 sift IoI lorlqEiSm Ismiol io ainsisq noila sbulDrIi ris alsnimm lsilnsioq noms rloll)slsini

Isnimin alslrluoD isili noiinmiolni 2sbivolq 16(11 9)101 '((15 10 ni1oorba .29Dfl9xJflhIi

£ lol 2fl011D519ifl1 lo xbiii 21(11 airISaSlq '(bIJi2 sill lo fl0iiD92 IsDrnqmS 9ffT

)hoY wsl'I 2201)5 bus OWl ui ui .e.u 9(11 111 2SfflflD insisilib lo '(ishEv iol noiis'isini lo 99i9b riici s bnil 9W a9!qmsa esirli us uI .a8Qt iii liD 1o 2!9V91 (sm1 Ilila kid) SisI9bom 2wocla sisb wO .iIsth olus bns '(usD151

lo etsvs! wol '(ISV 9Th SISIIT .'(lsddol bus '(1s11ud i11.,se2s iol fIOiiDSI9irn

9)nslSIIib smoa at sisili sliiiW .qs1 bns l9bWm flOais iol noiiDslsiru lsboa 9VSfl 01 2992 flOilDEISlili 151)02 lo 19v9! sill) sriiii 19V0 2911J2B9ffl 929(11 fl ss rloIiDslsini lo alsvsl sill isili bnil sw Ilsisvo (8Ql bus OWl nSSwisd nsaii

rbirlw) (inSlimia aith isili svsilsd 9W 2slqmsa ssidft sth 2201)5 lslimi2 '(11151

916 di u6d rbum oa Ion asii smir lo sruii&v 91-b 9nimlsisb alrI9ti b9xiI cii nirliiw 9)nsulIru lo eni&b 9r11 )t6sld sdl swed l9rlisi md iodrtisri usd1 '(d bsDnsuRninu

.esi)nsbrl9l Isrlimi1D lo noiaaimensil 91-li (11 "19A691d liunb s 9v19e aln96 bsxii .(iiI6)Ol sdi .'ib rb&i ni in9s bsxil lo isdmuri sm& 9111 I 9iscIJ iidi 9Id6T Iilnu J69I efi 9mue6 9W

Page 8: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

29nluI921J 91-li ei1oqqie (e9mii 9e9th 10 a19v91 nssm rfi ioI blorl ion ob .vo1oborii9m nio lo ii1idfiu191 bnis

rbirlw \ii i lo 1n919q 91-11 01 ii 1qq6 9W vo1obori1sm iiio lo lesi l9rfrwI ru sIdsn6v noiaiDsb s sd ion 1dBmuas1q bluorla 96in9D19q isril 916m91 26W

sill ml nOuiDsnOD Isivni 6 rIiiW .anoiiisini IsiDoa d bsnimisisb on bnjjol sw esx9a insisllib 9111 01 ?29f19V1i)611i6 '2siiiD 9(11 ru '(ii9r19019i9f1 oi o1obo(1ism iuo bsw oaIs 9W .sldsii&v 2inli 1-li anOuiDslsirli Isbo2

16iDo2 lo esiiithiiip lsiinsi2dJu2. b9B!qeib rfDir!w rui1oor1a 9nimsxs -eoi iol Jsi ol b9au sd n& sLqiDnu1q iii o1obodism uujO .2noiiDi9ini

.smm bno9d 2sidsnsv snsm ni ais11s IEujblvibni

9W .vo1obor11sm Dia6d sf11 iii 2insrnsvolqmi lo lsnsv £ insa9iq oals sW

9DnsruEv 'iiD-e2o1D lo inlIJOmfi 9(11 9161-111129 9W .eisbnsllo issqsl lol wolls brull 29iii lo &iiailsiDEl6rb ciihbnu 9111 nil SDfI6i16V d bsni6lqxs sd n isili sd iwm 16(11 ruOliDElsifli lEboa lo irnomi 9(11 no abrzuod iswol 9VI

(noibasisini lo ssisb 9th) ain9 bsxil lo nothoqoiq sril wo11 sW .ruiniixo ni asmii) auonse lol ir1i bnul 9W .niahsimmr1D 'jiiD rhiw SI6IJIDIJfl ol 21 afloliDslsinl lfilDoe lo 99l9b srli 11s(1i olus iol bn6 'n9i1 iol 1619n9

wosla sw ,.(!16r1iI .iDsirui 2291 916 29i11ffl61 91911W a9iiIfuiJmfflOD 920111 111 19.1fi!

d bsiloqqlJe 1mib '1no 916 arnern6rbsnn noiDfileini 16u2u 9(11 lo 1fil9v92 16(11

2i irI9m9xio1n9 WE! 1-li flOlia9fIoD lo mairi6rbsm srIT .Bisb 9111

.sDnSbivs iD(ui9lq-aaolD io (iiD-22or d bsttoqquaruui

2noib19inl 9viii2oq briE 91UiS19liJ woiv9lq . svsri n asu1i 1&ninbi 'rnm99a r1w nislqxs bfi91I6 al9born lo isdmuri A

(OQt) dse .(11E19ri9 siom nD19se-in9l io) 91-fliT) 10 alsvsl insi11ib s!iiq srli ruisn61qx9 219b01111 tuiiix9 91111 lo fl01219V )FIfirflhlDnsd 6 einseslqsl

lo lsdmun 916! £ .)FIOW eif!i nil .901i13 lii 9Dfi6il6V IBrIOib9a-eaOlD s1ir1 lo 1291113 Jofln&) 9Dlloq .m2ucl6fiD9ffl insmsio1ns wsl sth i29noD 2JJ3nifIullD

sill smii rbum 001 21 sisth nsdw -oa 2Isn1i1niD lo isdrnuni b9xll £ 116(11 9101-fl

£ nisd lo ieoD 9(11 ,acIeqqErl airli aA .riwob e9o bsiasns nisd lo ii1idsdoiq iiliw a3ildiliups sno :iluasi ns £ndiIiupS (siom io) owT .21161 0216 Isnimm r-liiw siidiliups 191110 sill bns iesTlfi lo asnhlidfidolq wol b116 alsvsl 9ffl1D r1ir1

.129116 lo ii1idsdo1q rlid S bns elsvsl smii wol

Page 9: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

brlfl 191i9112 'r1qusM .iaix9 oalfl I9bom Diafid airfi lo anoiiv 19(110 1&19v9 10 e19V9i ffif1 919f!W mainflhiD9m 9ViiErll9ilfl (16 J9jj (QI) '(rtdaiV

dmun 9f11 aA .a9iiivii I91 iuo bwoiD loivsrI9d (ciiA99-in91 io) !snimirn 1691 9eJJsD9d alIsI IEriirfliID s nisd ion moil asnui9l 9(11 9ai1 alsnimnD lo no nI .ihjai ns flndiIiup9 owl nisA .aiflflimnD 'd nsloia 916 291Jn9V91

1691 moil arnhJi9l 9(11 brza li16mhq a9iiivLiDfl I691 wollol ain9s Br1di1iIJp9 elsA99a-1n91 1iismhq I6 eins si1di1iup9 bnoD9a 9(11 nI .r1ir1 916 a9r1vijDs

asiiiViiDfl 1E91 moil aiimisi 9r11 ridsm audi aihow 1s1 9r11 moil nb1si .9ffliD i919iq 01 ain96 nbubni bnfl wol

9Th aIflnimilD-rIOn 9(11 Ii fln(J11wp9 9IqiiIxJm 9i&19fl9 II6D aLSbOffI 9V116111911A

i1i (a9iov 119(11 diiw) zibib iii io 81a1snirrthD srli nini1qiD2ib ni b9vIovni alIs1 eIsnirnilD-non lo i9dmun 9th aA .noiin9v9lq 9fflflD no in9qa iriuomfi

ii him ah!sl 0216 9mm nuin9v91q 01 b9isDoIIs 29D1u0291 lo inuomfl 9111

02113 l3ndilwp9 9IqithJM .9mm lo 9111 wollol 01 auO9Ein6vbfi 910w a9rIIoD9d

lo l9dmJJn 9(11 26 niiismiia 21 rnir. sazm9d b9qqoia 21 9miT) Ii 1h1Ja91 n6) .Ii9iDoa lo l9dmsrn "Ifimion" s a9moD9d Ifinimin 9S19V6 9111 ,92ii 2ISfIimjT)

01 svliDsiflb 9iom a9moD9d ii bn& 21161 9mii) rnoi1 6mija 9111 29211 9fflulD aA 9ii13miia 9fflulD lo alsvsl 19Ififi Ii *iow 0216 ysm £rnii2 1.a9mnD iimmoD

13 lo 21n9bi291 9111 911(1 01 s{191i1 2291 219'o1qm9 9biaiuO 9Aflm bATh 69Th (16 9(11 292691Dfl1 bns iaoD 9(11 ai9woL (19111 rihiif lo A1 16(11 iiD iflIuDiilsq

O.s9lfl 9(11 (U 9f1UD lo '(lilfifihip

2201)13 9Dfl6FI6V 910111, 9i619n9 oh 2191)0111 flildihiup9 9lqiiIum 9(11 911(1W

eI9bom 929111 2fl0i2i9b 1119b119q9bf11 '(118101 ihliw al9bom oh (19111 2(10116)01

al9bom 9(11 '(11619ii1 r19)IBT .alooi lsDiliqm9 26 arll9Idoiq 919V92 9ffl02 9VSfl

IIEffla 19(110 9(1102 9ldiaeoq io) fluidiliup9 9IdBia owl 9d Iliw 919(11 113111 bib9lq bnuom b9quoi 9d 11kw 29161 90111) tisdm him (thdiliup9 lo 19dm un 911rn1

9d bluoria 611th 9111 isrii bib9lq al9bOfrl 929111 '(1I6Dii1qm3 .ainioq Thmnq owl

tmdiu nilimi1 iii nbiIoq fl6ilivb lo 9101 t6Ji1) Sift lo 9i6)ovbS ismiiq 6 ei (1Qf) doD6(81 .9miD

no bS2sd aI9bom shdiliupe siqiflum lnssiq (1) isasslD iol noililsqmo bmbni 'tIwiaa&b Jaorn anoi)Ds19Iru 9vi169n 9Idieoq 'nsm 0216 916 919rIT0

Ififlimfl) ol &IlUi9l r1i 219wo1 etsnimft siom i&cli n&sm m (amibiv) syiuoi 9D1EiD 6 9Dfli3IlfiV bsvisedo 9111 92i61 ion l9WO1 bluow 2noib619in 9Vki69fl 929(11 19v9woH .'iivii)s

.i61 smr lo

8

Page 10: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

ol sisb 9111 woII13 9W no isdi brl13 anoiiudiiieib 'itmiiq owl olni b9i9iLJb iLJp A .9DIS1ISV 9DX9 911111 bnil b1uor1 sw noi1udhib owl rnoil 9mo

lo cioiiudFiiib 9111 ir1i awor1 1 brie C 291ui1 lii 291131 9mit) lo noiiD9q2ni w91 i no ni qu bn9 01 e9iiiD isrii ie9ua ion oh (IniRlis) 291131 9ID

11ii ai 919r11 ) 9ldfiT ni wocla Iliw w oaLA .siidi1iups 91d1220q moil 9OD 01 291131 9mir) 9th b9woII13 9VBri 9W 9DflO 9)flfiulfiV 229DX9 lo 1139b

.anoiixidiitaib (9lom io) owl

9r{i 113r11 9mu2213 111w 9W 219bom 91d13113113q '1J13Dfliqm9 910ffl 911391D 01 '19b10 nI 9Th enoiaiD9b a'in9.fi rbs9 :19V91 1&)ol "(19v 9111 is 211JD30 nOttDSl9ifli lSiDO2

fiildiiiup9 9IqdliJm sjiT .arioi2iD9b 'a'1odr1i9n nsril d lriim b9Drl9uflni

.913i9VS boor1iodr1i9n 9111 LIO1Ifl )IIOW (iflSifi9ffl91qrno 9(11 9V13f1 al9bom inIi nimiiees d bnis 2rlodDsi9fru 1sdo1 rzr1i isdlsi 1&)oI no niauDoI v1

enoiiD&191ni 01 baoqai Ion aob Isth flOiTlZIuqOq 9th lo nOIIDSII £ 2121x9 919(11

291hz) isth niiz)ib91q lo nioiisz.,lia 9ld6l1sqnu '11s)n1qm9 9111 biovs 111w 9W 1qmi2 111w 2I9bom wo bsianI .sildiIiup9 IDnilaib W91

13 01 919Vfl0D 111w

.291131 9fflfl) rIJ3d1iJ lo 9Dft61113v 91S1 £ iDLb9Iq

sildiIiup9 9lqiiliim 9111 as) anoilDslsini 9(11 lo mIol 9th no auDol nsrii 19(11551

n9rli bns 2!snimnz) eaois rIoilDslsini 9viiIaoq s muaas 111w w (ob al9bom 9Dfl9biV9 in9nhJD 9J-IT .I9bom 91d121Ji$Iq 11sDi1iqm9 910ff! 13 nhi19 no anDol

2201D5 flOibEl9lfIL 9vrtiaoq 13 arnhlIn(x) ((OQQI) 9nslD QX) sis)I bris 925D)

sth lo iaoM .noilz)13191n1 r1i lo (ff101 9111 lJJods 9viaubnoz) ion ei Ii bid 2lrx9s 1691 lo iuo 8nibwolD ini9fn9D1o1n9 wsl ni floii29noD) anoiiz)sl9Ini isluqoq

.(' 91d&T ni wonla 111w 9W as) 119w 211 9(11 iii 01 992 ion oh (aektiviizs

anloibJ3l9ini IiDoI 13 01 I9bom enoibsl9ini 1sdo1 13 (ff011 nivom samoz) 10 9nlT .noiiDslsini 9111 iol arloiisz)iliiauj lnsl9Ilib 2ia9ua '(lslsIb9mrrn I9bom

noIifirIimhl9 in9m9DloIn9 wsl lo norIe9noD) anoilDSl9lni lo 2911012 1noiiibil rloibsl9irii Isdo1 10 al9bom 101 b9iijJa 129d 9d 01 bnsl (a9iiinulloqqo 11391 10

IsDol 101 enOiIsDiIuauI .(119w as anoibsl9ini IsDol 91891D bIuoz) 9dl r1ijoi-1iIs)

riir11 191110 nomA .afIOilz)6191f11 in913-ol-ifI98 no auDol Jaum anioiiDsl9lni

di h&1 ill bns Diohwoiq9J ,IooI (OWl 101 1l6b9qa9) e9161 9fl) 9(11 ,a91u11 929(11 nI jrIi lo nuiI .eiohwI bn ee9nW9Aa lo 991g9b 1&rnol,1-non 9v&J smi lo 2noiiudilt2ib

'(JD bnfi )fc1 9m11) 1199W19d qirl2noiiSI91 9(1) lo 921)6)9(1 th9)X9 is1 s 0) iuxo erloiiudhi2ib .(2bIos1 w&J a'IqiX .9.1) iloJlwloiq9l 12uom61 m aie '1b 92u9d bus ssie

Page 11: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

9111 iuod& awoil noiicnio1ni (1) :moil 9fl0D '(Idiaus!q fID anoxiDsl9ini uSD01

'(lim&I mo-il aliiqni () 1snirni1D S 9d ol won JuodE zo mm ol 2rnhJiel issq (C) 9mnD ioI 91251 9111 10 9fflulD lo 2120D 9n11 9n1m1919b isnIi alsdm9m

9lsmixolq 'v '(ci niioiinom lo 9Dnsiloqmi 9111 (1k) io Isvolqqs quo 9Th '(9111 n9riw ioiinom i'nob aiodn1i9n 920111 bns) eDrI9n9i9b lol eiodr1i9n 9(11 1uoi1uoir11 Diiaons '(1i(1i1a fliSffl9l Iliw 9W .(alsnimilD e9VI9effl9nli

9viiiaoq 9111 lo irriol 9(11 no *Iow Isthiqm9 9111 nil ' 9IdsT Iilnuj bns I9bom lo 9Dni9291 scii ncniassm no aII9wb iqq emil '(l9ismuiIU .eflOilDsl9JrIi

bsx9 9111 riIniirn19i9b no Ion 9miiD no 9Dn9ulIni 119(11 bns anoxIDs19ini IsiDoc

.anoibs.1ni IsiDoc lo miol

I9boM .E

niL .alsbom Irii911ib ftcii1a hid inilirnia owl 1r1929iq 111w sw noiiD9a cull nil

IsDol bnis '(lmobnicSl b9nim1919b sd Iliw anozaiD9b 'a1n9s 19b0nn iaiuI snil

.9ffiulD (U 96W19 O '(Jieni9qoiq b9Ii9h11i9r1 s as b9l9bom 9d 111w arxoitmi9ini eI9bom nba .'(IniisIq siom ii9qqs Iliw noiisiinixsm 19bonn bnoD9e 9111 nil

nioiisi9iqisini 9(U52 9111 bns noiis19hni Ithoa lo x9bni 9ffi52 9(11 ie91Je 111w

.xbru isrit lo

-- o lo '(iiIidfiiThv r1irl ecu 8cii1sisn9 10 9IdsqsD ai iss1l l9bom 5 91911 1n19291q 9W ci bn9s 11D69 15111 91n1J225 9W .&bsb 9111 (U 9V192d0 9W lsrIi 9Dn9biDni emnD

CrIoibDfi owl lo 9ni0 eaoo11D ns in9s bse ic1i bnis i9sIni ns 'd bsx9bni Dimsn'(b s r1uion111A .emhD s nu11immoD as beleiqielni ed 111w 1 rioibA .{O1}

cli 10 aeiheqoiq 9111 nil bsia9ieIni slcio '(11591 915 9W b9hnea9iq 9d 111w l9bOm

01 au wolls 01 lrxo b9dilDaeb 915 aDimsn'(b edT .noiiudiiiaib '(isnoilsia .noiludiiheib '(IsnoilBiC ecu lo eeitieqoiq ehiJqmoD

15(11 '(iiIicJfidolq 9111 bns '(llrIebnI9qebni rIoibDs ns 2920011) inss rbss O emil IA

5 01 no1ed ln98 nis O <i '(liIidsdolq diiW . ci I noibs aeeoocb ines ns 9JIT .emil 19V0 noibs 119(11 enisrb ion 111w c1n9s eceulT .ain9s bexil lo 2 lea

.2lfl9s 2201)5 inebneqebni ci bsxil 8med 10 '(bilidsdoiq

or

Page 12: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

sf11 01 rrrlolnoD 01 '{fIscIoiesDDo Crioii 'isrlf enscb iliw einss r1ifliSffl91 silT aiodr1isn silT .(noij)l3lsjni IsiDoa 9ff I ci cull) ciodr1isrt 119111 '(d sbscn CsDiorlD

I lrisgs r1Ds riliw bSJsiDoaaA .(I-- I - i} =( 1)1/I flu ciriss sill 9Th x in9s as lo rliiw casoiq noeciocl irisbnsq9bni as ai sisrfi (einss bsxiI-rion Ifs .s.i) 2

91-li i rliiw b9isboeas aa9Doiq noeaiol sill 10 rlDoqs rIDfi9 IA .1 smil ns9m Isups rliiw ciodrlisn cii lo 9110 lo iscii 01 e9rIsct) iass sf11 lo noits

sill i 1111-12 . i9iiii rbss io1 eeasoiq Dilefirbola esculsb aiciT .'iilidsdoiq lud loivsc{sd niimixsm lo ihiesi sill 1iiDiIqx9 tori 915 arioibs 'eiodr1isri sill ill .a'iodrfisn a'sno niwo11o1 moll anis sill r1iiD9l191 as asse 9d n&

5 01 ioivsclsd 11111 no1 cii ni ln9lsvwps cull isili worla Iliw sw 1sbom ixsrz

.ioivsrlsd niimixsm no bsasd Isborn

fnoM .(Jtc.)i4 siiiassm limil s ci sisril .(t) elslsmsisq fl9V sill io1

isvo bsnilsb sniessm luau £ eieixs sisrli Ii ns nsvi (l9aiD91q sill isvo bsubni 9iuassm sill ,r<ni Ii bus jt �IiI: } lo anoils1ui1noD sill ,isiltwI .(itj uiliw assis (;)'i d 1' �iI: ) lo enoiisiuiInoD

Jnsimvrii ci ()i siuessm

iol ° sill bns 2 ISC 9111 f19Vi (its t)J 9lUCfi9ffl sill I9biariOD lelil ,airli sse oT 2 lo insmsls ic9is! rfi ioI -1 9111w sw 2 I i99irn sns nsvi2) .2 I rbss

isis9i Ci cbirlw 2 lo insmsls iasllsrne sill ioI ÷1 brm I asrfi aesl ci rfirlw II .1 "ls±sid" lsrli 2 lo einsrnsls sill sis ÷1 bns - abiow 191110 iii .1 usd1

its II .sno '(iilidsdoiq rliiw ,° — isrll 99C 01 (C69 ci Ii ooE—i 26 risrfi = riiaoorb rliod cinss bsxil owl d bslsbsid ci ein9gs bsxil-non 10 lSvl9irli

ocls 111w lsvisini lsth iii ainss bsxil-non sill lo Ifs limi1 9111 (II nsrli ,,.t noilDs .1 noibs 9aOOfb

01 (° = °t bris ,,2 -i no IsnoilibuoD) srio 'li!icIsdoiq aniaas (tt)i sDnsH

ti ascii , ° II .÷ � � -i 101 InsianoD ci ,s cbirlw ui enoiis1JJimnoD lo isa sill

= Ii QoE—1 as sno nirlDsolqqs 'Qilidsdoiq rlliw lsrli ssa of \69 niss ci

lo Isvisfni its no isril anssm ieiJ iluesi culT . = t � � - {f16 ioI 119(11

bus "bsiioa" sm asisla 'ainss silt aln98s bsxil owl n9swiSd ainss bsxil-nori

s svsri 111w (b9xil sd ion 111w inss airil -- smif ui inioq s is) inss srio 1rxo

s is) sels snol9v3 .nwo ciii risrll ineisllib noilDs as aslsi tsth ioddisn SDnSH .aiob Sifi 'sill izdw '(liDsxs riiob eiodrlisa svscl Iliw (srnii ui inioq

ii

Page 13: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

ni b91'xo sirs tsrli noiifiuJiInoD 10 19a 9th 01 9110 ii1idsdoiq ariis (itc)J4

.sw airii

.- Ii lscli l9fiilLIl worla 01 ain9mJJ1l3 nisit) vo*isM 'çI&insmsL9 91J ns 9(10 t= .i - + bns I ° bns 0 = thiw lo afriloq 9VLIUD9ar1OD 9Th + bris

bns ,2 ÷i, - rio IsnoiiibnoD ,riiss) ariiaas (it)iI isrli ii1idcidoq 9th 119th

d '(1b13x9 fl9eorb ai 0 anOIiDS IiDifiW (Ii arI0ii61IJi1noD 9(11 ol (I = °, bris 0= \.t alsup9 .[..i,, -ii 15V191(1I 9111 (11 ,t - 1+-. � \� - ifl9fi

rfi b sii19qo1q 9r11 ru b9ia9l9irli (11s9i 916 9w 9vods b9rloiin9rn SW aA

iqnDelSqua smil 9th qoib 9loIsl9rit ffiw 9W .(t)J4 rioiiudiiiaib tsrioiisi 'isnoitsi 9(11 lo 29 lSqolq 9th r1fflIm6x9 916 SW isth riibnsiaisbnu 9(11 11liw

lo l9dmurI 9s19V6 9111 18,11 aimsns(b 9111 moil in9mqqfi 2! II .noiiudiiiaib 9(11 rliiw srisrb ion asob noii mhJDiimq 8 9)1si isrli quo s nil ain9S ns iol (t, i)ii noiij.,dhiath 9(11 riiau 9)n9H .qiioi 9(11 nil ain9s lo isclrnujri

SI-IT .U+u a! I noibs asaoofb 18111 u� Iii aine 10 I9dmurI beiDsqxS 9(11

S iliiw 119(11 °°(— I -j 26 Ii i&tIi 299iflS1fihJ ain9s "b9XII" lo 9DfI9291 a! 'd cisaorb (buDS 9111 O19 01 '(llSilnSrIoqxS abrisi tsrli '(iiIidEdoIq

eihJa91 ioivsrlsd jim!! IElin9D 9rn9H .x '(d r1920(ID 18th lo irI9bnISqsbth :isnli 2f159ffl rlDLrIW

(I.e:) e[t ,0]'A & I +

19fii1JJI bns

(s.C) = 0<;

(U am19i SDI1SiISVOD 9rIi lo notEiuqmoD 9111' .(-I)t=(6)mv isdi worn! 9W slcls!isvs) xibn9qqs ns iol ii 9v691 9w bns 'r1inis1 lud 'Thifi9m9!9 21 ()

isdi a! 1916! Sw 111w 9w 1Mb IDE1 inthoqm silT .(lasupsl noqu

(C.C) (—I)s(')\=

.Ir ssq m9lo9rcr (18I) sIli-IW 9Iqmfix9 iol 2

Page 14: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

ol ixsn b9iio!q 21 (c)1 I 91IJ8iI flI .°°=(t)1 O*—tffliI bns t>(y1 r=(r)1 ir1w nsiisv 9(11 lisdil won>! oels 9W .l9born ix9n srli d b9is19n 2i isrli (t)1 9rli

lass! is 1o b99q2 s Is o 01 S81SVOD 111w mua bssilscrnoci sifiulqolqqs srli lo .1

aioislimi on II .flOiiDElSini IsDol lo 9n9esiq 91-li moil ailimsi (t)1 mnisi srlT lo isdrniin 9(11 aA .(q-I)q a! 991I81ThV 9(11 bris sno alsups misi airIl i119291q 916

.aIisV9lq 1irninnu bns oo oi 2908 cr1191 9r11 O ascbsoiqqs alnss '5buia' 10 idmiin slinil llsrna is sDubolq 1no ns Isbom srli iiminsriu riliW

Diafid 9(11 3nuiEDiIqmoD moil n163 liuii 21 919111 brjs LndillLIps 'mriodsia 21 rbsolqqs fiG 10 (1163 3nhlsbom 'ismhq silT .aI9bom shdilkp9 sIqxillJm

is lo noibuboitni 91-11 (13u01fl1 29Df16i1SV lo 931161 9biW S 91619(193 01 'li1ids 9(11

.b9xil a' lsrli noiishiqoq srft lo noilioq

umIJ ttm aoM iIo\J x'o tiaP,

ricismisbni)I .3.9) a1bom lsiov (10 9lIJtSI9iiI 9111 rlfiw iilimI 19b1391 edT 2111936 emoa 10 9DrIsa9lq 9(11 lol lq9x9 16111 9Jfl30D91 Iliw ((O8Qt) 11en bris

9110 6 '(IIDSX9 21 21111 ,2 3 920(11 . noliDs Isiiini 119(11 is 5buia" 916 orfw 3flibbfi) I9bOm ieiov DzaSd 9111 lo noiisdiitheq UJO .191)0111 I9I0V lsrioiariemib

islov Isnoiarismib 9(10 bisbnisia 9Dfl12 iflsilOqmi 19V9W011 21 (a1n936 bsxil anssm rbirlw iiminznji iidirixs ISr1I arioiii,dnfaib sisnoiisia 9VSrl alsborn

airlT .sith ecu (ii 992 9W nsrli 9DIIS1ISV 910ff! fl9V9 iDibslq al9bOirI 9111 usd1

arIoien9mib owl rd 9DrflsI s lSblanoD 9W Ii irlee9lq oaln ax '(ilsqoIq '1imnisriu (16 lo iodcl3isn s bns ) 2193911!! lo lISq is d bexebni 21 in9s rIDES 91911w

.( j±.) 10 (±k ) 111935 'fl5 21 1r1936

991(11 rioiarimib nI .anoiensmib 19(13111 (11 aizeqqsaib 19v9wod1 iiminsciU 91619n939b-non ) slqhi s d bexebni 21 111936 rlDisS 91911W .9.1

21(1936 lo isdmiin 9111 jioiiuthiiaib iriisilfivrii '((16 isbriU .iaix9 arioiiiidniaib ("i '(d bebivib nsrlw) noiiskqoq lo edw) s cit 9(10 nOIlDE 29200db isrli

.((W1) iliss11ii) bns moarisi8 .I.D) 9kIisilSV mobnwi Iisnnon 6 01 29319V110D

lool 9ThU2 lisuw 9111 01 bseoqqo as ti 21 919(1 rioiisxilsmion lo 1(1612(10) srLT

.88.- t\88.f=()I ei 10 auIsv iol IIibqe ()1 iol noii&nixoiqqs boos A sie estI 910I91Hii 9dUD 9rrr1

El

Page 15: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

ir1i ni sd bluow r1DtJw) bi9bienoD 91d6nEv mobni3l lo l9dcnhJn 9(11 lo -99lftI airli 16(11 worle Iliw 9W af1U291 lfiDiliqm9 rIO flOiJD9e iuo nI .(9sD

el9bom Il3noien9mib owl bns 9n0 sill 9)liL abib9iq Isbom islov Lficioin9mib .6i6b 9(11 11! bnuol iir1i n&1i 9DflfihlSV 1911If1 119V9 (IS lfl9S b9XiI jiiorjjiw

lo e9DiJisi no ioivr1d iDnhlaib '19V 6 9V511 alsbom 1910V 16(11 fiWOfl)I 119W ei II 19iS91 lo 991(11 rioiacismib lo asDiiiSI -I-% owl io 9110 rioiarismib

1LJ ni lscfi work 01 mssa 991111 bns owl noianscnib ni anoilsiijmia 1&thsmul4 .991(11 bns owl ,sno noiansmib iol islimia ai loivfirf9d 9(11 Isbom bi1iborn

9(11 iol Ino snob 919W svods bsliaoqxs afIoilSlUDlSD MI'16n6 1110 19V9WOH

.sasD IsrlOiari9mth-9n0

lo alsbom bns anoian9mnth owl 10 9110 lo aisbom n99w19d 9Dfl9l9ihb 9(10 ioI .asiiiD 01D8 asisi 9fflflD Ia 9D11SI1SV bsithsiq srii ai arloian9mth 991(11

isq 91si awoi It as (ain9s bsxil iuorliiw) alsbom fsnoiansmul) owl 10 9(10 bibslq aisbom sasrli 9aJJsD9d) 9)flSi16V sviiiaoq '(s1qaib ilda asisi smrr) sliqsD

9111 awoi tt as (einss bsxil thociiiw) 991(11 noiansmib ni .(1iminsnu ni ain9s bsxil cIliw ob '(9r11 an) oiss 01 O asisi 9fflflD siiqsD isq lo 9DfIEiISV

snimislsb 11SD anoiansmib lo isdmun sril wr1T .(sa& isrlozan9rnib-srio 9th

ns sbivoiq 'li1nnoiansmib bus asijiD aaoin 9DfISnfiv bsiDibslq 9th lo assisb 19aa91 10 19ifi91 fflwiqs) Ia (ain9n bsxfl 01) borlism 9V1113rn9115

alsbom mdi s!dnT ni ssa SW ,sIirlW '1isnso1s19r1 nsdiii bns noiln191ni rbum aol libsiq 991(11 10 owl 9fl0 anOiarx9mib Ia (alnss bsxil iuorliiw)

noiensmib 19r1ir1 9ffl0 lo Isbom s miii sidiaaoq ai ii sisb srli lii 01 sDnshsV riDua lo aDilsfrIsrlinm e11 ISV9WOH .asisi smm bsvlsado 9111 9i619n9 billow

l9ioV iuods nwornl ai 911111 as bstsi1qmo 910(11 rlDum 9d bhiow Isbom £ .ssirii ri&rli 19i691 anoianscnib iii aI9bOffl

i& tdi nr1w n6hiv lo 4is1 001 tnbsiq oats aisbom iov lsnoiarl9mib owl bris 9fl0 9r1T .airiss b9xil On

ion 9Dt16iThV a291 sVfid alsbom noiarismib isr1id sd1 iIue9i nsi1a 9(11 riiion rihow ai i1 uomiruinu , no ivno thbom rloian9mib woJ .flOib6l9ini 9iom 9v6r1 vsrft sau&9d torn

ai 1irnin6nu anoien9mib 9ndJ ni .esiii) O1D6 9n6hfiv ia9diIi 9(11 e9)ubolq birlw 9moDiuo n,3i1iv ii-o1D 9d1 bsI ni bns (anoibslsini lo l9dmun i&I sail o seufiDsd) bsbiov6

.asnht)sb

Page 16: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

bn13 JrI9 riisimixsm '(IiiDiIqx9 (111w Isborn s 9w nOiiD9 Jxsn srfi ni ni anoi1iini 1&o1 lo I9born iaiil airli lo noiaisv '(113noifiia sill lsrh suis

.Isbom niirnuiqo ns lo noieisv mhiDitmq as bsisiqisini

oi1 ttm ioxk1 'gn mxit'A -- ousT oM

t moil bsviisb '(IiiDiIqxs ion 919W anoiabsb 'ain9& ,lsborn auoivsiq 9(11 nI nisimixsm rliiw I9bom 9ViiEiTI9iIS (113 in9asiq 9W 919H .I9bOrn niirnixsm

.lsbocn tail sril as loivErf9d IsDilailsia smfsa 9(11 9is19ns 111w isrli aiobs 01 b9DloI 9113. 9W isdi ai noiis.imixsm niwboiini lo iaoD 9(11 '(19isrnJi1o1nU

9113 eifl913 (19(1 W .9.! 1S1101iD91ibUUi ei noiisftmi e'inss rh89 919(1 9fflhJaS iiiii 1i91li (10 iri9s 9111 '(d '(mo b9Dri9uIIni i ifl9E 1bS9 enu1 £ no b9nsns rliiw ifI9l9ffni a9IthJDIIIII) f1i19b0m 91IT .1191 119111 (10 ifl9fi 9111 '(d ion

noiiqrnuaaf3 airli 91cin (isisl no in9fIlfflOD 111w 9W rbiriw) noiisiimi lfiuhJm

.\çIsaa9Dsn

lo 9(10 9aOorlD JiBD 1n9E 1b139 i99ifii 1113 '(d bsxsbni ai in9s fIDs9 91OI9d aA

si-IT .smh s riiiiimmoD as bsl9lqlsini sd 111w .1 noiiA .{LO) anoiis owl noiis sill oafs bns asAsi 9(1 is(1i (buDs 9(11 (10 abnsqsb lnss 1113 lo '(lililli

in9s '((1(19)1131

lo ai in96 (IS II S 10 .1 O b9xsbni Isbom airli ni ain9s lo asq'(i 991111 9113 9lsrlT aid 0 9q'(i b ai inss ris II .(j.ji ji),U as '(flhIIJJ aid 9mw 9W (JO) 9q'(i air! I sq(i lo ai in9s ns 11 lo irisbnsqsbni J) = is bssimixsrn ai 'QiIiiu

ainss lo asq'(i owl 9a9rfT . 10 insbcisqsbru f = is bssimixsm ai '(iifiiiJ

'(9111 (ai(19S £ sq'{i) ai9bids wsi bns (aic19s 0 sq'Q) a19)ls9ldWsI bisrisib s-is usd1 lo anoiiDs 9(11 'd b9rlsuflnirni sd Iliw bns ni8lsm 9r11 moil isI 9113

aJJoiv9lq 9111 111 ainss bsxil 9111 01 woo1sns 9113 asq'(i owl 9a9rlT .1odr1i9ri .Isbom

.noiisiimi lsrioibsiib-id I9bosn 01 sIdfl sd 01 isIsiq bluow 9W rlOilD6l9ifli svilieoq mo lo 'ns riliw b9i9lql9Jni 9(1 fiG) a9iiitiiu 10 noii)sflflo)19ifl1 ejriT 8

01 1flu191 9111 10 91G1 iaSTIS 9(11 e9)fl9uflfIi '(IiVLbG ISfliffliE) a't- in94& ndW .aI9bortl Unimh moil aJ9 I 1n9s siiLiiu 9(11 bris i ifl9fi 10 '(iiliiU 9111 9Dfl9uflh1i 11 e9iiiviiD1 i t-i inl Ii mii s ni1iimmo moil '1iliiu 1om 9vi9)91 in9G 9lqrr1fix9 io1 .e9IIIViIDG

icii nirbisw moil IsviiI1 uiom Isie 01 woii b9rrissl ad I in96 9uG)9d Isrlimil

El

Page 17: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

TQ

9u) Or1gM6!p flJ6 L911 !U 9M LG96L2 (Mpo M!I1 UOt 6COW6 IULIII6UCE9PIG ur)q6b6uqw OU MJJ6IP6L 16 L!6 u 19M gp!q612 (Mpo MGL6 bLsrIwtp) LOLIJJ9HA !UUn6UC69PI6bobnj9l!ou b6Lc6ufG b MIII L'It HOMGA6L' (6 UI1WGL OL !UIJII6UCG9PIG gGU2 UJA L!6 OL LVII

96U MJJO 9L6 MA2 IYM pLG9)6L' ruc6 obboL(flU!1A CO2 °L CLIW6 92 L!6U jpGP!P6L 6WbJOAW6U( J6A6J M!1 I Iuqrlc6 WOL6 96U(2 MJJO SL6 9JM9X 19M YplqGI2 Yuq 6M6LCX Cp9L9C16LI21IC U 9Cf' flL9U CINL9CI6L!21!C2 M!II !O!UIIA qGr6Lwru6 b uq r EOL 6xYwb1s(JJ66 9LIfI162 H6UC6' fl16 crlrou bO!U 9uq (6 bLQp9pqipa bo uq bi' wi?qb6uq ou OWGWCflLL6 pX p6!IJ 9LL616 OL P'I!f (0 COWWI( CLIW6 OL 20W6 M6pf6q COWP!L191!OIJ 0Jpi C0IJ1IUrT0C1 YrrL!Pnr6 conq 6 ()16 L6If1LU2 (0 OL rpc 11I16L!U

Couqi0u2 jOL CGUII9! I!W pGpA0L10 S6LO 6XbOIJ6UITYIIA 2 i- 062 O iuiuiA JJJ12 CI 1/62 (12 2I1pCJ6Uf26W6U (\) JpG bi.oppij 6L6 !2 110 2rlCJJ 961J IJ tJJl !IJfGLA9J 0629L6 Tuq6b6uq6u couqipouj ou q16 6XT26uC6 o u 9GU o Ab6 OL j 11169AOL C9IJ pG Gef9pJ2p6q IA0L6 bL6qcJA' MG jJOM i uq \O: 961Jf2 o fXbG 0 uq j f19L9U662 6UOf1JJ ,,WpqU 20 JJ9I fJJ6 C6UfL9J Wf

A9J 1162 0 0 OL J' W6U 1J16 bL0C62 {i '-oo << oo} 12 2spou9LA jJJ6 bLGeGucG

fl G9C 96U2 9Cf0U {I} 2 AJ0(1JI 0 92 9 L9UW A9L9JG 1j191 922fTW62 1JJ6

qLpiOu O JJJ626 492p GdrqJp149 9CL022 C11!62fAbG 0 9GUI 1JJ91 P69U jJ6 2fLTU JjJ6 L6w9uq6L 0 fJJ2 einq? GX9UJIUG2 J6flUuf6UrTbf6q p) fAbG 0 01. XbG j 96U2 MTII !w!96 rp cpou o p6 bG j 01.

492jJ 6drf!JpL!flW !A6U $416 $Ab62 O G9Cjl 96U$ 9J 2$LTU2 Oj lXb6 5 96UI2E9CP 961J O26LA62 1416 9CPOU C026U pA p bL6q6c622oL JJJGLG !2 9 I1U!dfTG

$4J12 COUfTUfTOIT2JA 9fPpfT16$4J9f U6 p61.16w L0W CLTUJG 9uq p9J $4.16 fAb62 2TWbJA L6U6CI CfI$011 bo!u ru

6U0M6 M!$4J qGL6U1 iuJorni o couiiuriorie 9lL!pr1$G I:jJ9ç qGjGuu!uGe9CL022 961J2 jp6 wo21 9bb69j!u 1u$6LbL6g10u 0 Ab6 12 IJJ 69CJJ ¶I6Ul !292 1 6L6 92 MGff JJJG bLop9p1pA 0 6C0UJTU TAbs o' 01. 1uqGb6uqGub1.oboLpou 0 U0U-UJ9LflJ9I (x6q) 961Jl2 MG MIII OCCY2IOU9JJA LG6L fo bO+bJ

bLop9pJrA bo uq o IAbG j MiIp bLop9p!jiiA bi' iiq 2!UCG bo+bi 12 of9q6b6uq6uf 0u pe U61pp0L,2 q6q2rou• JJCjJ 961J1 o Xb6 0 M!$4JW9LU9j 6U011JJ iu p12 q6cIerou fO p6COUJ6 9 CLIUJ!U9I WI 6 MIII PG¶1

bL6GL2 io iuii p12 bLGqGcG22oL JjJ Ab o 961J1 !2JoL 1Ab 6J2' MG 922(TWG (j'j) > (j'ç) uq n (o'o) > n5(o'i)' '

Page 18: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

9r!T .n � I ii ins us lo i9 9r11 l9biario ninoesi bisbnsia niwoI1o1 + oq) \ q as bsionsb ai eirI9s 9asrli d ii amit b l9dmun b9iD9qx9

:0ir1i 91111 9d iwifi ii niEfi 9Dn9H .(rq

(1.E) [oo1v (—) I

n�jil +1f isrIi isr!inl bns

() 0<1

(c —

!)c = ()iv ,noiludhiaib Isimonid B 2w01101 o 9Dfli

9110 iefi9I is isrii ifl9V9 9111 9(1 I 191 (.C) flu m19i 9D11BI1BVOD r1i 9iiiqrno oT no !snoiiibnoD iiirii worn! 9W .r 10 0 9q'(i 9r11 b ai [i 0} ifl9m92 9111 fri ifl9B

119)161 91J16V 9th '(d'(Isviaubx9 b9fluJTfl9l9b ai 9Ddua) o lo icisbn9qsbni ai I isrli 'ii1idsdoiq 911T .(i brxs 0 r199w19d b9isDol 1 10 0 9q'(i 10 ifl9S 9th 'd 119(11 ,11JDD0 1011 a901) I1I l(_ 0c—1) d fl9Vi ai IIJDDO a!t

:() 9thw91 ns sw noi1sv19ado alit! nkU

( — 1)c

= II — 0\ I

+ l](s —

Os = — — 1)(c

— — 1) =

bris ifl96 2201DB 9D11BIISVOD 9th airl9e9lq9l (j5+ 0c)\(5— o5 i) mii I1T In9aslq 916 ein96 £ 9qi 011 II .flOifBiIffl lo 9Dfl9291 9(11 moil ?J111291

9q(1 10 ei ifl9B 11369 16(11 iilidsdcriq 9(11 aA .llun ei rrrisi afrIl (1 = + ) 9W 19vo91oM •oo a9dDsolqqs ml9i alit! (o19s a9rlDBolqqB It .9.1) t e9fIDsOlqqB

b 9DfifiilBV 9111 '{IIsuinsnoqx9 fli'(6D9b 916 a9DfIthEVOD 9(1! sausD9d iBrhl womi .t\1 1a691 16 9161 9(11 iS t) 01 a919Vfl03 ('s.C) 10 9bia 1)116(1 1191 9fF!

9111 bnci nOiilJIoa airii fl99Wi9d 191!BlBq sill \)=(t)1 9iilw 01 920(13 sw 11

9W won iBrIi iqsDxs) 1916913 fl9v9 asmoD9d 1born 21JO1V91 9111 lo noiiijloa aIJOiV9lq 9(11 rliiw as 1sborn airhi 1111W .((It)1 iol rzoF!uloa miol bsaolD B 9vBhi

220DB (cioiisliiqoq lo lool 916U2 9(11 a9mui) esisi smm lo 9DflBilSV 9111 Isbom

.1f tq m9losrfT (I8Qt) 9lidW niisA OC

Page 19: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

16111 floii6llJqoq sill lo noitioqoiq 9111 lo noiiDnuI 6 ascnii (q-1)q aIfup9 e911i) IscIoiiDnuI tbilqxs airfi e11qsi I siuiI ,9Dfi9JJIIfIi sbieiuo 01 bssi ion sob

aA .I9bom auoivslq r1i ni ()1 tol brwol 9u16v I6DrIsmun riiiw ()1 iol rrnol iol esifimuie9 I6Diin9bi iomIB b1si aisbom in9l9Thb owl 9111 ewor1a siui1 sf11

fC 10 a9IJIBV (CO. wolsd) wo! 16 Iq9DXS (t)1

9(11 lo 9lfimiias n olni ()1 bs1miJa9 9(11 mloIan6li 01 \{a69 ai ii l9bom audi ni noii)sa euoiv9iq 9(11 ni aA .quo1 16b02 ifIsbnsq9bl9iru (16 lo 9ia 9619VE

bniI sw %(()1 tol sliimtoI wsri srli nieU it\I ai ssia quot Ithoa 9.6t9V6 9(11

.\(I÷(v)1) ai quot IEboe 9111 10 9S12 sill 10 916m11a9 tiio 16(11

10 (loliDnhJI '(iiIiiIJ 9(11 . flOii6iIffli Dnismmve siom 9DLIbOtini 01 daiw SW II noilqmiiees Istuisn 9(10 J+i bnfi t- ains lo anoii 9111 no abnsqsb 'atod(1isn li9rIi lo IIIIJa sill no bnsqsb asilililu ain96 isrIi miiaa 01 ai ifl96 lo \(IiIIILJ 9111 16111 srnJJea6 brl6 + = siiiw flhiD 9W 0 anoibs

9ffh1JS fiiE6 9W j9bom 1stsi6lid 6 ru .sq(i air! i 91911W (t)s 'd nvi (sno bnE o1s sq(i b9iOnSb cuis) ain9s lo asqil bsxil owl lo 9r19iaix9 9(11

,I noibs '{d I 9q(i lo 111 bns ot9s noibfi d bs&irnixsrn ai 0 sq(i lo (iiliiLI 9111

9q'(i 1911109(10 lno i 919111 16(11 91019d aS 9rnsmi 9W 11 . lo (1irI9br1sq9bni

<(1) (O,1) <(O,O) sqi isdi tol isrli 9fflU226 01 1tjdsri ai ii rusrli

latil 9111 01 1iDsx9 bsd 916 9W sas thu iii .(1j) = (1,0)i "ti9mrnve iol bns !lsbom

lo fi0691 101 (1166 '{1saa9D9n ai ii a9ii iiiiw 9ansqaib 01 '(11 9W tsvswor1 II

C = 9q'(i diod bris to1sd as 916 1 bns 0 a9q(T .a9q'(i tuol 9U 01 s(1i9rnm'(a s10m19ffi1uq .(0,1)i < (0,0) brus (,0) < (j). 1aiisa = ' bits

stom ai C 9q'(i sstsaib a1odrli9n (19(1w ..i (10) <(!,1),. bits (I1) <(1,O)u

ii 19v9W0r1 sa& audi ii! .1 noibs thtswoi ! 9qi bns 0 nojiDS abtswol bsruibni .ndiliups 11as4 lo tsdmuru 91J51 S 916 91911116111 99 01 '(B9 al

iliw I9bom lo iorb 9111 1)61 ru oa nOisu 9L116V wol irIi ui 9(1 Iliw t lo 916mii9 WO JD&1 nI uib ol 9Id6no69u ei ii 9V9i19d 9W iIU9I 6 eA it lo 916mi1e9 ILJO (Ilfl6)i1i(1 Sfliml9lSb Iiiub& 9(11 Inoi1 001 9ie6I1qm9 Jon bns e9Idsimv (t)1 9,11 lo 9J6mii9 uIJ Iimmhq

it lo 9i6mi1e9

81

Page 20: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

i if .{1 E OJ lo niieiai1oD Iflvl9ifli nfl 9Ai n9qqflc! ni ifirlw se oT ni) £hdiliup9 iIi'1 rliocl 9Th 11 J I %O} bris (1 O O O} a9moDJuo irIi iioivdo

irli anoitfl3l9ini 9viiioq I6JJIiJ(n 91fi IC) 9a1J6D98 .(ai9rfio 'nsm 9Th 919fF! 19th 9Iqmi on 91911w 9rn13 noifsnibloo3 b9ifl3ilqmoD '(Inib99Dx9 ns ainsa9lq9l

b9iDib9'lq 9sfl9iDfllsrID li1oiDflkiisa of 'jaw on ai i9r1i bns \1qqs atn9msnuI9l .I9bom iliJDiIIib 9iom airfi biovs 1qmia Iliw 9W 11ua91 is aA .loivsrl9d

thow9ms1 IsDiliqma .!

11s3i1iqm9 ni b9vlovni euaai 9th aauaib of irissm ai )how9mshI airlT nsdu iol niwo11s ni b9ia9l9fni 915 9W 1E1uDii1flq nI .()1 riiismila9

(ns isdi '(iilidsdolq sriT .smii lo afil9n9d bns afeoD 91ff iii s(flsri9o19f91f (3 1s)'q=1q b9ion9b ai Isnimu) S 9f11099d of a9aooJiD j 'iiD (Ii fI9SiiiD 91fIia

aDiiail9iDislsdD nsdiii sldsvl9ado Sm ioi)sv 91ff fij a9ldrijmv 9(11 si9Jiw (.Di9 ais11srn ioclsl IsDol nu1oo1fDa nsdiu lo a!svsl (iiD srft lo noiisluqoq)

aDiian9iDs1sdD nsdiij 9ldsvl9adonu 915 (3 10199V 9(11 (ii a9IdfliThV 91ff bris

9mnD is iimmo 01 iian9qo1q e'Isjjbivibni ns fDibslq aDlienSiDslsrID nsdiU

is moi1 !rnjbivibni nis :e9iieil9iDslsrID riwo 1subivibni 9111 1991191 \(Sdi 9W639d .ni1oor1Da 1fir1 9vsrI of '(ISA!! Slom rioifrnh19b '(d ai '(fiD rii1oo1fDa 1firf

lo iaoD s11J niaisi '(d SmrlD ebmwof (fian9qo1q 91ff lSwoI vsm nu1oo1f3a sioM sth dDirfw iii insrnnoiivns sdf sriimisfsb oafs e3ifeiisiDsmdD nsdiU .9mm

910(11 9d (sm II .9mm ioI '(fiansqolq 9111 f911s oafs 'sm (19111w a9vi! fn9s .bsisDubS Ilsw ai SDsIuqoq 91ff saiisd esmuiD iimmo of '(Iiao3 io iluDillib

ab9119 owl 9e91f1 91nsin9aib of sw 'ris rliiw au insasiq ion ob sfsb sissiA ioI asisi SffliT) 139115 aDtteil9iDslfl(1D 59Th 15301 15(11 13th 9(11 9iOf11 111w 9W oa

anoassi insisilib 'isv owl

as noifsiim iuods anoiabsb 'ain96 e9Asi *10W IsDiliqmS iuO

11.10 nsrll aIsnirni1D isrlio iii iw svil of 9aooit) alsnirrln3 II .bsnimi919b9iq bns) loivJ3rf9d Isnirnil3 no 9DflSuflni IsDol lo 139119 sdi sfsiaisvo 'sm aihiasi

I6nimiV ii ni9d o boorliI9liI srIf snsrb aiiei1s l6rb tsijbivibni 16r11 Suii 'IfliEi19) i iI 16111 rliiw ifl9iienoDfli ion i I9bom eirli bn& ob a)iii19iD&16d) 6916 16901 nrirli 91om 161

Ino b6d Ifnimi1D ai ins6 9111 16111 iilidiidoiq 9di au 9vi rIOilDnuI (.)q srfT .in9m9i6J nimjl9b rioiflmio1ni I6ubivibni 911T .j nwoi ai sviI Ijiubivibni 9(11 isdi noii6rnlolni wo no

.9moDiuo Isnimir) S olni qo19v9b Ji1id&doiq airli 19(1)911w 19v91 Itwbivibni riliw i)9119 Owl 9111 fli1(ThifI9ib 36 do 19119d ob (Q1) Nis)I bits ssD

n6thu lo i11 1n919111b owl 9esiii fl99Wi9d r1eiuniiaib 01 '(16?9D9fl i 1131(1W &isb .eDiien9iDslsrlD

Page 21: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

airli oi r11ui91 Iliw 9W .(noiJuuiim auor19obn9 lo 9101 9ri 9iia19brIJJ ii a9)Ism efiiuo'( 91S oriw a!fiifflflD lo 9Bifl9D19q T1Lu1 9rli hid isis1 noiia9up

9)!Brfl oi 'iirniiioqqo 9rli 9vsi-1 ton ob a1rIimnD lo ihojsm r1i isri woivdo ailoq9SI srnilD mioliriU .IJ rIi oJ niknoxs) anoieiD9b noiitim nwo li9rFt

.(l9bnu io 1 916 9ffiflD '(tl9qolq iol b9i911 9eOfit lo o\°O nsrli 9lOffl Ii ;enoiiDfilSJni 9viiioq lo 9rI9biv9 1192ii ei fithoa IErIottfiDoI 91Offl19fFt11JI

.anoii19Jni 9vliiaoq 9d taijm 919ri fI9rIi 19rli9oi 9V1! oi 9Diorb Ifinimin

91911W \OiD 11)139 fiX 911111) lo triiioms Isui)s 911i 9i0fl9b 1q i91 IIiw eW

'(13ffl isrli a)borie mObflSl 911i i)91191 oi iflfi9m ai 10) (flI9i 9ffT .(1o13s)q=1q b9iDibsIq 9d bhiow irii 9iw1 9mm) 9rii moil 19111b 9j131 9fl) a's(tb 13 9)lsm

lo in9bn9qsbni ai o i&Ii 9U22S 9W 29j1Jd11it6 ia6d a'ib 9rFt lo 11, niwori>1

ISJJiDl3 fl99Wi9d qs 911i 9eoqmoD9b oi J11139ffi ai *10w9m611 n01i13m1i29 airiT

9Id13vl9ado niw b9iib9lq 9113 t13111 e9isl 9fflilD 911i briE a9iEl 9fl) oi b9i13191 noiiloq S oii'u qs eiiit 29biVib noiiaoqrnob 9rlT .aiei19iDBmrb

nothoq 13 bris IOi9V 911i) iiail9bslsrb a"ti) 9d11 lo noiisvl92do i)9h9qrn! .(1oD9v o 9th) mn lo 19v91 b9b9qx9 11911i moil rzrtEiv9b 'air19fi oi bsislsi

113i)o lo inLloms 9f1i 9iEmxia9 Oi W woII Iliw noxixaoqrno)9b iriT earl ((t)1 19th91q 9lom) anoibsi9ini ISiDOC lo '(iiirIEup 9th 9Dn1e ,er1oth619ni 9i131 9mm) (iiD isi won 9nlml9i9b oi noib9a auoiv9lq srL ni bciuol n9sd

a"JiD 9n1i O us Ii b9bib9lq 9d bhiow isrli 9i131 9ffl11) 9th moil 19111b Iliw .nworiA 919W eDlian9iDslEfID

9(11 9iErnuie9 oi au SIdEn9 iliw rbirfw rloliiaoqmoD9b 9(11 101 9s1ie DICEd iuO larli "m191 10119" 9th 101 9IiJbUlia S 9JTIIJCCE 01 Ci ,arloiiDsl9irn 911 1 lo 9iC '1q isnli 9fflJJCCS SW '(llSDiIiDsq2 .eDIieflshfiIfirb 19V91-'(iiD cIiaaim moll esmo)

asH (&)iiei1Sis1BrF) a's(ib 9(11 no noiismiolnii Si9IqmoD fl9Vi noiiibslq srhi

:rrriol IsnoIiDcuJI iio1 bisbnsie

(f.)

9Th 3 bns rliod 91911W j3+=.1v bns 9311611EV iicii1 019S 1169(11 Ci V 919(1W

s e91dsV19ed0 9(11 lo flOliDnIJI S Ci S .Cm19i 9DflEilfiV 9iiflul O19S (1139(11 oa113

Page 22: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

noiiDib9lq 911i et siocisb sic II .e9Idfiv19cIo 9f1i o tnsbn9q9bni i ii bnis

no b9d 9ifi1 9iflulD iiD srli lo

' =' + —

I

O=( 13)EI riiiw rni9f lofl9 budiifib '(Ilfimlon s ei 3 isili 9mJJaas I9rfiw1 9W

1sbo lo isbom 1911ii9 rfiiw i9iI1fi9 b9woI1 9W th .S=( 3)iEV bns :noiiTh19ifii

() ( —

1)() i— )iiv

.t4\f 9iE1 t6 ai 9DfI9I9VflOD ir1i bn

b9xsbni a91cIci1fiv mobn&1 us bus bsxi1 as aiosv 9Th 9)lfii 9W no won mo1 :SiOfl9b Iliw 9W •(o3) lo anoibnuI as b9IsbianoD 9d 111w

(&t) )+(c —

c)]= —

:ab!9i rio nnoiJibno ano1siD9qx9 rth!sT

(E.1) [3I\,(— (Ioa — + = isuhi bus = isufi aisI sill niaU

() =(I)a

:ab19i no ninoiiibno anoiisiDsqxs nblsi nisA

c)b"J =I (t—c%)11iN +[I\r(S- sThs'I (IiI

= eiuoO

rr

Page 23: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

noiiibnoD 9w n9rfw (ü lo in9bn9qsbth eidi bnE) insi2no 6 ai ( —

:rI9iiflw9l 9d n& () I9bom 9iiii9 10 2il1J291 sift bus (.4) niaU . no

.sioni usda 9w rbidw 11/I\.t lo isbio sift no arrrisi oi aislsi (t-I4)O 9iSdW

:isifi awollol ii ,((8Qi) isI!sI ..9 99a) uluasi bisbnsia s niaU

(.4) [(aicc)'IIa +[(3l)Ji'I = ()ii\I

:il3fIJ WOfD! SW 1OiD9V 9th lo anotbnul )ttalnimlsisb 916 bus 9Dni2

(c.) 1 — =

(1 =

:('.) niaU

(8.1k) — — — = — =

(I)it\I = £(_ c isrhi isI srhi niw bus (8.t) bus ('.!) riinidmoD

[i — +

(1_;) — — =

isuji noiiDrlul s aiaixs sisthi usd1 bsiudhiaib llsmion ei Isdi srmieas SW II iii rrn9i SDI16IIBV sill oini bus ( bsionsb) lo noitsivsb bmbnsla sill aqsm

:910119b Iliw SW 'hIsDi1iD9q2 .('')

[ 'I- ) (1—

Page 24: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

nJq6b6uq6ul 0 V1JJJ6 CL!1!C91 92flWb1!OU OL 1p! 61!W91!0U bLoc6qrTL6 10 MOLJ( !2 191 Y P6 6?61J1!9I,?\

6Xb6Cf9f!OU o A LT2G2 M!fJJ 14)

O JJ.6 A9!.!UC6 o A 2 IuqGbGuqGuf 0 14 prlf 1JJ 1416 A1UC6 0 1416COLL6f0U O 141 uq (b! - (Mp!cp C0U162 L0W 14.16 Cf fJJ9t 6Xb6Cf9ITOUuq jt) 2UJf1JfU6Ot12X iu wgf Cg6' 011!. G2fTwfG2 o y piU6 OU 1416MG CJU G214UJfG y TgIU 6df1fTOU ('no) uq MG CU uq 62fUJ62 0j poqi y

('vn)Zi' —)'

2OCII TIJfGLCfTOU LU C262 Mj16L6 '2 LG J(UOMU' 2 L6 12' ('ni) pGcouJG2:fJJ9f q6LGUl 62fUJf62 0 y Mjj L6211Jf !2 GLGU G2fUJf62 O 1416 WOfTU OM6L6 \(L) 61JOf62 011!. 62f!Wf6 O Edn oil ('ni) W$62 OpA!OfT2

= [t(j —X)_t(j —3,('b)J ()r[(—t' 3(1—)h()IE2I4UJ914U t) fO ILqLnUJS6 h1' uq jqu b uq y 2 J(TJOMU:

(b' — t 'j' = (j — b)3(t - \(L)),J.('b)+ \(t)b(j —)+' ('VJO)

C0IJ2Uf CLO22 Cf62 9Uq 2 GdfigJ fO fJJ6 9L6fG YA6LS6:

LU btfTcnJL' MJJ6U MG J(JJOM fJJ9f b'=b' r6 1416 6Xb6Cf9iOU 0 CL!UJG 72

LP!2 GdfTt!0U C9U 6 62fUJ96 MJJ6IJ MG JJSAG u 9bbLoxp.u9fIou OL

( —)5v =(J—')3( —\(t)),h(t') +\()(j—)+\ (vo)

bGLGCfJX O2GLA6 1416 A9L!9UCG O CLIUJ6 J6A6J2 flaTu ()'('v) uq ('nO):MJJGLG h1 MTjJ G jJJGgiJ GLO uq MIJJ L6jJGCf 1416 6X6Uf fo MJJTCJJ MG qo U01

(v&

JOL 6IJJbTLiC1 iuibJGwGuiou MG CU qGpIJG:

Page 25: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

Ii nsv9) FIWOID! ei (q)P isrfi b9rnuefi 9vfii-i 9w noieeirnib iuo ru isI o2 oT .iix9 9b91worIA iuo at (q)P ioI noiiuloe miol bseob on iDs1 nI .(ionu

riiI-rion s bnuol bnIfi thb anoii,1umi b9au 9W (n9ldolq eirFt 9vIo uiiq (q) OOO ruixil b9vlovni anoii!umie mO .(qA)P iol noiifimixolqqs 929(11 n9viD .'iiq (q) rb& iol 3 10 291111W OOOOt rLii19ci9 (19111 brie

nio iii 9W .116 (q) i'1D69 iol (q)'P b9JBmiia9 (19111 9W 8'j3 b9i19n9 (q) niniMrioD 1imori'(Ioq oi a9lsupe iaI 'mnib1o '(d 2'(q)P lo 9Dn91Jp9e

1fiimon1'!oq 21111 92JJ 9W •o\o 19V0 1o 5I ri bsif fl0i229191 21r11 --8m191 .1iow 1Drnqm9 9(11 iuor1ujoir1i (q)'F lo noii13mixo1qqci

211U29$1 . rli bns I8 9rli :29D11J02 Owl tnoil 9mo flOiiBfflui29 wo ni beau sisb 9riT

d bsnI2iIduq 9Th ifib 9ffliD '(ib-82OD 9riT .irI9rnlThqsU 9iIoI tiD )11OY W91,4

b9liqmoD 9Th 61fib 911T .mo1q iio1 nD %n(t,U 9(11 l9brIu I8I 9(11

bnl3 \(iflUOD iiD OOOI 19V0 '(d ffl1 9111 ol b9flimdua arloq9l 1r11riom moil mo1 29fflOD fliEb 'iiD )hOY W91'I iu0 .br19,i ifI9m9DlOIfI9 wis! 9ii2

bns) JD9ilOq9l 29fflulD IiSi9b 8192 LiEb rlioa .iDrI9'Iq '(cJ a9fflulD lo 2floq9l 9Vi2 10 i291Th IIEJFI 19f11E1 (b9i1hsv

89(flflD lo l9drnun 1sui s11i i1luo19bnu 'm si6b 929111 '(1auoivd0 9(11 ir1i ai (lOIDlqWa II,J0 .b9iloq9l ion 9Th 29f11flD 'rism 9Dfli2 b9iiimmoD

-8801D IEJII 02 2S9Th 9ffliT) f1L(1 (11 19f11fi 9d iliw nhi1oq91 l9brw 1o 1(1110mB

ai nthoq91 l9bfIIJ 1BI;li 91dieoq ai ii hid b9ifimuie919brnJ 81 9DfISI1SV 'iiD bluiow 9W ,92fiD 1911E1 ff3111 nil .9fflilD rbum iuonliiw 269Th 980(11 tI 19iS91 mm (ii 9DI1JSIThV (lDniD9lq-aaor io) ib-aeo1D t1id (1e1Jorwq2 B 9V192dO

89iB1

9(11 a9dfl)29b rbirlw xibri9qqA ri& ni b9bubrli 9Th arioiiiruilsb '29miT) 9f1T

siEb 0216 hid lsiBb 91151 9fflID '(1(10 ion 9W 9W .'(bu1 9111 nii b9au 29ICI15iThV

b linu iii0 .2Diien9bSThrb n6dlu no eAoo8 LIEU '(imioD bnIB '(liD mail

iu 9Th W noi&umi 9111 niJS9q91 'Cd bns si 9IqmI 1n9IsIIib rtiiw r1iin9mh9qx9 (8 Jiup i ( (qA) niwornI) (qA)'P lo 9U3mi1e9 iuo J&dJ o duon9 ei enoiUv19edo OO0O1 niub

.9i&1UD)f .(trtuo1Odi 9lom a9mn)bsJ'Ioqsl fli2U lo em9Idolq rfJ 29e2uDeib (4Qf) JiivsJ'

Page 26: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

an 9bivolq Iin9irI9vnoD eAood isb 9± bns (iiD 9111 21 iuoc1noirfi eih3ni3 w 2921D 91fl02 ni) 8i bcis O?f cliod iol (auans 9(11 moil) slsb l9v91-XIiD riliw

brIiDsiq io! .(sisb liFT 8Qt bns 8t sith O8t rbism oi b9DioI 9i9w sill iii b9insasiq siath anans OQI riliw siith 9)iIoq 9111 b9it)iSffi 9W sisb 19v91

1Q 2aD ninnsN 'iiD lo insmimqsU )hOY wsVI 2291 9d ysm absii auaris bns aiDniD9Iq n99W19d niqqsm 2'9mulov 2irfT 9111 'd bswolls (e9iiiD bns e9iib r199w19d) riiqqsm IDSX9 9± nr1i 9iD91q

.sisb I81 bus 2JJ2fl9D

amib3 a'i tm noU mM -- 3t-hl \thT

9ViI 9Th 21fl929iq At 9IdsT .sith mo Is Aool biiip s 21r1929mq SI-At a9ldsT srii lo owT ui suiqsD i9q asmiT) 2LJ0i192 121391 bris teom 9± riiiw 29ith

01 (lafisI Ifi hq fli) flOthaOq usd1 9W0 291131e b9iinU srIi (II 29111D 9ITD ia9f1ir1 12iIIJOJ 981131 9111 9bljbfli ton esob rbiriw noiisluqoq lo noiiinil9b auansD suit

8E1191398 m1s 129W bns iiD DitrisliA 10 arioiishiqoq

b9113191 9113 fbs9a mlsq 129W bus 'JiD DilfiSliA 10 219V9! 9mhD rl8iri sill sliilW

mo noiisliiqoq lo fI1i1W0D19bnu lo s2usDsd) anoiisluqoq ieimoi ci8irI uisrli 01

1iiaunu s(I9m9T1x9 (IS 2i r1089iO bris!imoq (21snimh3 131311113 aieiwoi 92LJ13D9d

lo alsvsl riir1 bus fn9mo1qrn9rILI ia9bom asil bns1imo .msins srnimD

29mu13 2IJ0i192 10 219V91 fI3Ir! '(19m911x9 1)131! O8t ui bns1tio 11ft2 .noijsDub9

9mm e*i&1 bnIr18iH .(bmswcio Xt moil 91flIiD lo 219v91 rl8ir! bsrl 21311 bris) bns ifl9m'(01qf1I9flu lo 219v91 rI8irl 21311 (flD tsrlT .s!dsDiIqx9 9lom al sisu 2291 bii8i1a 21 ilflEiM .2b10f192IJ0f1 b9bSsfl s!scuisl 10 219V91 ffiri 19m9iiX9

ui IsliqED nsmuri lo alsvsl wol asil 001 ii lud *isI brIslci8iH nsrli sIdsDiIqx9 .rxoiisluqoq au

noiishlJqoq wol I9ffi91ix9 sIsIIa 1113 asiiIfuJmmOD ti9bbii 9ffl 12139! 9V11 91ff nsw1sd noiis!9noD svzuiaoq riworiA-lIsw 9111 01 bsis!sm 2i 8rjibriil aunT .a1v!

9111 01 9vi11191 mhD lo l9dmun 9rn 1sfl91 0) ei l1iq6) 19q e9miiD fIiU ru Iso8 iuo 11 8 bru6 rb190 m169 )e9W lo lflOiifIuq0q b9Wa69m 9111 es n9dt amiiiv Isiin9ioq lo rioifliluqoq u9q amhD bnus9m 9(11 119111 anoiisIuqoq lthuoi m1 119(11 9bubni a) tisI iiD DiinliA 9Th 9W b91eni uI .amibiv IsiJn9ioq at emin lo o11Rl 91(1 9I61ausvo siib saorti rul iiiqs

26 (buJ2 2111) ni 9Th w 26) etsnimrr 161)cI9)oq ot 29miT) lo oiJiu 9111 8flU2fi9 ru b912919)ni

au2n r11 n9rIJ J2i1uo1 scli ion) 21n9bi291 misi 81101 9(11 3(101(16 moil 91(10) e1sruimii 9(11 es 3nol .916nqoqq6 ci noiisluqoq lo nofiiniI9b

Page 27: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

lo e19v91 (1ifi 'hifi1 9v13r1 11, e9iiiD ses± lo iaoM .19v91 9flD bns 9s1e-(iiD irI1 01 rIoLlq9Dx9 9fl0 SILT .lnscn'(olqcnsi-w lo alsvsl wol bus 1siiq& nsmuri

teswol bnoD9 9(11 9VSfl 01 296flfiffl rbiriw '(919I W914 b19i116D i 1119fr19fl318

.a9isubJ31 Ioocbe r1ir1 nisd nsiiiD eli lo o\°Q14 Ino diiw slsi SffliD

81 sldsT .eise f$isb iuo lo anoiisiv9b bmbnsie bus anssm 1n929lq Hf-fit esldsT ieiil SIiT .sitsb '(iiD-aeor 8Qf ibl ariortstvsb bi&bn1e bus arissun 9(11 e1n9a91q

9iTlflD cuonsa O. 9619VE no 916 919111 isi1i ewor1 C9fl9 sisb srIi lo snil smm euoiise Jesriiri thiw iiD sth 1nbliiie sioM .2.U sf11 (ii 169k isq siiq&)

si-li rIiiw '(ii) 9111 (15111 siiqsD isq asmrr) CuOn9C 910111 a9rmt Q escl sisi isq muminim sf11 aniquoi SfflflD 191110 sill lo us 1o1 .91131 9mm leswol

ci smhD Isubivibni us iol sisi smm rnumixsm 9riT .oiss ci 19v91 siiqfiD

.esinsm1 ioI sliqED isq CSfflflD

16911 111w 9W C9fflflD Isubivibni 9fluIflSX9 9W fl9fiW i9qsq irli iuorliioirlT Sill 9flufflh3X9 10(1 111w SW .9.i fifi9rnon9f1q ISiDOC insbrisqsbrii as cSmriD 9asrft

hO '(11u31IJiS1/I .noam lo elsvsl 19fi1I1 9115191 C9151 l9bluJffI ir1irf i9rii9fiW

13 '(Isma Ci 919111 bns C9CSD '(Ilfiffi (U b9flODfli ci SDrIsbnSqsbni lo noiiqmucas

aaois enoiisi91ni nrIim6xs '(d bsnis sd ol noiisrniolrii lo Icisb insi sliaoqqo 9(11 sAsrn 9W '(llsi9n9 C9ffU1 CJJOfl9a 9fIiffiSX9 9W (19(1W .asmii

CCO'lD& '(lfIOIiC CS *10W C110119619ith lSfiiiTfl1D isr11 9fflJJCCE brig noiiqmJJacB bus DiiaiISSlnLJ oals ci 9ffi91iX9 cirli nisA .a9mhD nirliiw ob srfi as asmri

smilD-CeOl) (111w niIssb iol marnscbsm sldixsll 910(11 £ 911391D 01 9qOrl SW .)hOW 19161 (Ii afloiiDS191fl1

ocIs 916 919111 91ds*Ism9i 9113 asisi 9mm (Ii asDciSlsIIIb '(ib-eaolD sf11 shr!W bus csiuiibnsqxs if19mfl19V0 ni1oor1Da (ii C9D1191911ib '(liD-ceol Diisrnsib

lo '(ii9n9o19isd bsvisedo si-li 01 9CflOC91 9(10 .siudiiuis nsdw '(19V9 iaornls a9ihJdilhilS (Ii 9DIII31IEV '(1 aaot sth lo us slflilsd 01 Ci a9111D CCO1DS aSisi 9fflu13

lo s9l9b r1irl airfi isilt 9LJ15 01 ci noiiDssl iuO ".lsrriion" Cs m9fli sea bus 9(11 16(11 bns 9(ffID cebisd astdsiisv 191110 ui enoibsisini leSiie 9)nsh6v

niv6d I9v9I noiisluqoq iswol cliiw e9111) 01 b91191 sd oels 9lqbnnq 1i sm i1u91 euIT in9mu'm iaa1T .nOie9191 Die6d luo iii 9bubni ion ob 9W 15111 e91u1691 )iiIIDfl'Oibi siom

l9iril iuO .rioiiudiiieib dJ lo lisI sdi 16 a9i1i) 19116ma 99 01 (19)liI 9101tt I Ii ifr(1 (ii bn6 stmimv 9161 smiD ns9wlsd riiI svilieoq s ei sissD %II6Di1iqms isilJ aiasu.eA,ow i noiiudiiiib srb Ia 1i61 9(1116 fli9d 9i1b II6me svil iol noilErl6lqxs irli 16r1J oe noi1s1uqoq

.sId6lqsDDfinu

Page 28: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

19r1io ru enoiiDs9ini !fiiDoa fliflimx9 iol Iulseu 9d n& !sbom uoiv9iq iuo eu oJ iqm9iis ts1 ni lliw 9W .(0rIoii&wb9 fi f!Due) 119W es e9l9Hqe

.a9Idsnsv !snirnhD-non iol 11siid 'o!obodism

r1 asrnn bshoqsi lo 19v91 n19m ScIT .OQI iol sith 'ib avi Dl 9IdsT

9fflD 10 noiifiiv9b bmbnfiia 9siT bnfi OQl n99w19d b9ldlJob nsdi iom '(11) 9iS1 91111D ia9cl8id 9ffT .o\°Oe '(I9lsrnixolqqs 'd n9en a&il a9itiD e0ns a9iL

i9wo1 scIj nir1i 131iqE 19q 9f1IflD 9lOm e9fnii O l9ifimixo1qqs aid Ol íü .OWI In 'i1D 91S1 9ITIilD

lo x9bni b9efid l9bom bn 9W iuirIi euoivdo ii 9)IBrn 19dmun 9e9riT

lo 9flJefiSffl Di6d 9ffi0 SW 01 (1i ti1im laiDnlqm9 svi6n A .anoiiDi9ini bmbnci 9W SW li ui8 .aflOiiD6l9ifIi lo 9919b 9111 9Th69ffl 01 9DIISFIEV

bliow SW noitml9irIi lo 99l9b sth siua&m 01 nisrn '(d bsbivib rioiisivb 9r11 bsaii SW Ii Smil 9ffl6 9(11 tA ,n91161 b6rf arioiiDslSini hr1i Inidi

Ii 'iiD 9161 smm ta9WOI 01 'iiD 9161 9ffliD iescfir! lo 01161 9111 10 noi1fiqmo) 9i6nqoqq6 sf11 S200It) 01 s1diaoqmi 2i II .f19i1 svsrl anoiiDslsini Ii ernssa

s1dsmi1s £ eu e9vi 16111 Isborn ii iuorliiw erxoIiDnIsinl Isboc lo swesm .rlorbwt9irn lo 9919b 9111 a9nuiqED 1611 1 191 srnsmq

lvSI (1139111 SIiT .iiD *ioY wsl'I iol Lifib iDnbSlq-aeoID Sf11 a9bivolq CIT sldaT

C91fIIID lo lsvsl n9m si Cfi 9ffl6C ecu {19iEmix01qq6 ci hoY wsM iii aemir. lo luo fl99Wi9d ei11ib C9ffiIID eu0i19a lo 1101111n19b sf11 isvewoH .noil&i si-li iol

esqii ibium iIuieas io1 'iiD-eeoi 91-Il bnas Lisb )IloY WSVI

-io1 .9t519V6 Isno!iEn9rli SVOdfi 119w Cl *ioY wsI4 eilsrfi oiuis brui esnsddoi '(Iimrnilq) 9619V13 Iflnoiisrl 9111 wol9d ci AioY W9M a9ns1wd briE eSirl9D16I

.(esmh sesilt lo Crlorhnul9b srit lo 9euJ13D9d

atrt lDnr)S14 1e916e silT J1irj slwp ci *io'f W9t4 flu flOii6rlJ3v iDniD9lq acoiD

.iDniDslq n9bbfl Sffllt) teom 91-11 lo £iiq&) isq esmrr CUOfl9C 9(11 rlirisi srio IcEsi 9111 bnE iDniD9iq nbbii smhD ieorn srii nsswisd asirisD1s1 iol oiii srIT

lo 1139b 1uisi 6 oafs ci 919111 sewo 10 .9(10 01 OOC svo ci iDrIiDslq nsbbii smrlD .Ilsw as ei1ai19ismriD niIisbnu nsm ni eiDniDslq aaoi noLuI3iliiv

nr) ei (1t1) uodIn9U .smn lo 9bi1uo noi1ti-iini IiiDoI o I9bom 'nsm iix9 &I ni ob isdT .IiiqsD n6rflud lo flOiJDUbOlq rD gil enoib6l9ini lo 9lqm.ix9 JsI91I9Dx9

.tiiib *ioY w9t'l 9d1 ni euon9e e& bsi1ieb si e9mii isw&1

Page 29: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

airlT .6JJb '1LD o1D 8Q1 iol arloiii5iv9b bl6bnsle bnfi 2fl69JT1 evi HI 9Id6T

IsnOiit3n ni e9Drl9l9thb I6iinfiiachie is 9i9111 lErli ni 91d6*ifin91 ai 6161)

911T .is 9!nie i ni o\0I 'd 9eoi 2119(11 ohm — 8QI bns 8Qf n99wisd 2919V6 l6loqm9il9ini 92911T .91di*i6m91 91011! 119V9 916 19V91 'iiD SIll 16 29Dfl91911ib

IBubivibni eaoi anoiisISno) sd (fi 919(11 ififif 19fl1flJ1 ia9u2 29D1191911ib

.9fflu1) fIl 96fl9 01 anoi2bsb

-- I\ thT

srlT .2floiiDfilSifli 16iD02 lo 9Df19291 9(11 (10 21111291 iaEd 1110 aIn9aSlq A SId6T

2u0fl92 -- 91IJ2fi9ffl 96916 9111 rihiw ninnisd smh d bsiriio ai s1di 9fflllD (1)69 nirliiW .2SldthBv 9miD 191110 SIll lo mua 9r11 2i (1)111 W e9mflD

bS*ifim arirnulo 9riT .asnuoa l6b 991111 9(11 ff011 9Dfl9biV9 9V6(1 SW 'jiosi&) 01 19191 OI bsAism anrnulo) 911T .8QI th 616b ( -2201) 181 9(11 01 19191 8Qt 01 islsi DYT/I b9,hsm arimuIoD 9(11 .Ot ioI md flifib iiD-aaon lEFT scna sth ei 2(10116)0110 l9dmJJfl 9,11 sIirfW .abnb9lq '(ii) *zoY w9M lol sifib Cf 10 rlolifihlJqoq 9619V6 9(11 (88 lo bs9iani O) airibslq :ivi ioI i11sine ibum

srIi iii 29i1i) lo noiisluqoq 9619V6 9(11 01 iciSIbvwp9 '(lrl1Joi ei 2b111D91q srli bci6 6161) '(iiD-2201) 8Q1 ioI 9i2 Slqmfia 9(11 A sldsT ru .slqmsa '(iiD-220T)

'th-aa01D OI 101 9i2 SIqmfie 9dT .2ilfflU!0) 2201)6 9f16fiD ion ob 6161) DYM

6161) lo 921J&)9d aSiliD I lo 9!qm6e 19116m2 6 01 a9mil 991(11 eqoib 6151)

.(sisb '(f19:X16! 1)116 sqsi 1SJflJJm ioI) 1i1ids1iv

9111 21J(I1IT1 9(10 e9mui 9161 9(1111) 2.U 9619V6 9(11 29vi flmuIoD hail SrLT

noiiSDoI 2201) lo 9)fISuISV 9111 ai 19drnJJn airlT .w01 ibss ioI 9161 9(1111) 96I9V6 insbnsqsbni 919W 2(10121)91) ISflilflflD Ii bsisqxs sd bluow isrlf 29151 9fflflD

airlT .29111) 2201)6 insiano 26W aISfIifflulD lo nothoqoiq b9iSqx9 9(11 Ii bns

.SDuIEil&V b9bibsiq )hsrnlbnsd rliiw au asbivoiq isdmun

Io 9lqmBe 9iirlil rnoi1 29i1LD 2201)6 9Df16i16V 9111 ni1mries 916 SW SDrne

srii moil ai11ib 9DflSllSV bsvI9ado 9(11 (19(1W b9ailqlua ion 916 SW 29iii)

s IIsw eiib ctO*D6 flOi1I9tI0) 9liUp9I bluow I9v9I 9miD 969If (Ii 9flIfiThV rlir1 A .I6ubivibni eeoDiI

uriim 9Jfi1 mii '<lb O1D lo 9)nfirisv b9bibnq 9aIJ ei (q-1)q i9dmun irfJ '<ki61uDDfi 9mM .noii6Iuqoq '<liD lo iooi 9ThU 9(11 9mii 9619V(i .2.U

8

Page 30: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

b9Jib91cJ 9r11 brluolfi elfivi9ini 9Dn9bkInoD nii oT .srisiiv b9JDib9lq Iii-riion bibiibnii1 b916upa lo fflU 6 113111 IDSI 9(11 9L1 Iliw 9W 9D11Sfl6V

i briu Jm1 irii niU .noiilidili2ib b9supe-irb s awollol a9Id&n13v mobni r113h13v b9v19&io 9111 16111 won>! w 91cli3i noiiudiiiaib b9lflupa-irID bmbnsia 9DIT13IThV 9IJTt 9111 a9mui bni 1. n99w19d 911 Iliw alinji iflSbfl9q9bni O' lo

9DrIsbiInoD l9IIfirna b!9i( asiia quoi 19r1iH .9lTlii 9(11 lo o\oQ ((q4)q) b9iDib9lq cfJ a9mui .1 nsdi iom snsiiv b9vl9ado 116 o2 .aI13vlsjni

nr1cFii3v bsvisado 9r11 9Dni2 .aia9riioq'(rl Hun 9111 1)991 01 au awoII13 9Dr113r16v

9111 9D1W1 116111 eI 19V911 bnE 9)11611EV b9bib9lq 9(11 a9mii 0001 19V0 119110 ei IfiDiiaii6la lo noieeuaib l9rfhul rnoil 11161191 111w 9W 9D116LThV b9iib9iq

.ai[ua91 flifli6ffl91 rft 10 4hjd 9(11 1uor1uouft 9)nED111rIia

asifil 9iflflD lo 9)11611EV 161.11)6 9(11 au a9vi A 9ldsT lo (ImIJIOD brloD9e 911T

(H 9Df191911ib 91-IT .anoiiEDoI aaot (noi11uqoq '(Ii) lo 1001 91E1J 9111 a9mui)

lo \{nfim iol fii19E1a ai anmulo bno9e bn lalil 9111 r199w19c1 9buiirIsm 9111 Bi 0= 119(1W rbirlw (t)1 lo 9i6miia wo avi nmuIoD biiñi 9riT .awoi 9(11

wol fi ff011 i9V0IT1 oi1i ai(1T .nmuIoD laiil 9111 01 nrruhloD bno9a 9111 lo oi11

9113 ¶n9rfT .'11619n9 a9mi1 auiohsa iol 8.C1C.t lo r1ir! B ol (el9bnim 101) 0.1 1o

.0001 19V0 lo aOIifll 1619V9a

ai ,9flD 191110 \uIEm 01 9V116191 9mnD W0fl9 101 ()1 lo a9uIEV r1id 9JiT

asin9Dml 916 9miD auOil9a lo Ahid 9r11 ja1F1 .e9yloI bnilaib owl 'd b9nisIqx9 1o1 ()1 bsvl9ado 9111 bnoD92 .iiir1 '{!9m91iX9 916 fI9DTh1 iol a9u16v ()1 1)1113

() bni 9fffl) nirijiw anoiiDsl9ini 9(11(1) lo rfiod noiiDnuI 13 ai a9mriD auon9a

av)blum 9101-fl 161-11 i)&1 9111 .9.i) asmiD lEubivibni 20DE 11011)13191(11 9(11

rllod e9bubni a9mhD aJJoil9a iol (t)1 9,11 9Drli2 .(i9ddo1 lo aiao 9111 9a691D9b

nirlliw '(lao e9bubni a9mnD l6libivibni iol a'()1 9111 91111W th9119 9asrIl 1o

9d 01 '(11619n9 9fflfl) euionsa 101 ()t)1 9(11 b9qx9 bluow 9W enoib619ini 9(1111)

I13ubIvibni irf I iol bsismiia9 at)1 9111 lo 9619VE b9ir1i9w 13 116(11 19f1i11

e9muID aaois noilDEl9inl 9111 r1UI1fflsx9 '(1w0119e ion 916 9W 911IfW .a9mD -191111 1o '(lilasup insDi1inie 13 al 919(1116111 aia9ua (v)1 lo 19V91 11id airli 919ñ

.al9volliqe SiTu)

nL\(h9bnu on 9113 919111 113111 asmuaeE '(llfiuinSaaS aia'(IEnB nib9D91q 9111

9JiT .9mh ni 1fl9 01 '(iian9qolq 9111 (Ii a9iilnummo) aeois as)n9lsIIib '(lirxurnrno f1i'(I19bflU ni \(ii9n9o19l9r1 wolls ittod anrnhiloD owl ix9n

Page 31: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

ai noib92 *low9mhilI noiismiias 9th ni b92euD2ib eA .eDiiail9iDfiIfirID

'(d li9n9O19i9r1 airil 911i9mB1fiq 9w A nilsmi1a9 91o19d q912 'i&nmil91q 91udi11lf lo 9si2 9(11 asion9b rbiclw A 10 a9JJIfiv 9m911x9 owl riirnu2a13

9rIT .!O. brit lOO. :A iol asuliw llilin9ioq Owl 9W .29iiiD aeoi 29Dn91911ib

cu 'ii9n9019i9r! b9vl9ado lo irwoms 9(11 ol abnoqa9noD A lo 916(111129 19W01 c mm srii el q isrli 9ffl1122& 9W II = *ç J9born 9(11 nI .291d6v192do -

2eo1 in6iano S ai bns He9ludiiiis sIdnvI9ado a'(i1D s d b9iib91q sisi bor1i9m airli ruieu bnuol A lo 916(111129 mO .A 9161(11129 n& 9W (19111

iqqu iuO .100. ai bnuod l9woI 91d13n02691 s lo rIir1i9moa 21 1991 9W rbirlw nsdm 910111 a9mui Of 21r19a91q91 ii SWSD9d (I) (1920(F) asw 10. bniiod

'(lin6DiIinia ai ii () bns slsb 9(11 (11 svl9ado '(llButs 9W nsth '(i19fl9019i9r1

.l9qSq 9th fl 1916! bnii 9W isdi A lo a9uIriv b916m1129 911110 'iris (16(11 19161

01 a9liien9qolq rn(FI9bfuJ 10 9)nahSv 9111 riiwoI1s (t)1 916m112991 (19(11 9W 21111291 9ILT .29IJISV A in9I9IIib 929± ufiiw bsi3ib9lq iSJii 9d ol 29JT11D limrno

.A 91d6T lo bris e aIlmUIOD ni 916 anoiismuie99l 929(11 mon

01 2911D limmoD 01 a9ilian9qolq t1i'(h9bfItJ lo nshsv cii wolls 9W (19(1W

leoifl 101 b9rifiubnu s!1&iasd 916 21hJ291 9(11 019S-fl0fl sd 01 a9ift) 2201D6 '(ISV 920(11 101 teom 21IJJ291 rft ab9IIs noi19no aidi rIbuboliriI .ewo 9r11 lo

(t)1 916119b 116iin9aa9 atlOlt)9T10) 929(11 921J&)9d ,J1911o taom IUX)0 isrIl 29m1r)

2110i192 9th ur1T .9mi1 lo !9V91 9619VS 9(11 01 !Snoitloqolq l9dmunl rbum 21 a9milD 21101192 lo 19V91 WISI 9± 9auSD9d b9iD911S teom ai 91Jj1I 91Th1D

2291 rIDIJ11I 916 2!9V9! 9fflflD 19(110 9clT .29ldSilSv 191110 9± (11 risrii 19riirl nril is11i11 '(Ibliw Ilija 9Th e'(E)I Ijuili euoivdo ei ti aa919r1119v91'I .b9iD9Ils 9nfT .nF:wmn 001 9nsrb ion ob ()1 lo 219V9! Diafid 9(11 910m19d11LJI .9(10

A 9V01n 9W as 1.t1Q 01 8.Cf€I rnoil 29V0 a9fflu1) aJJOil9a iol (,t)1 bsismiia9

9W 26 01 01 ((1011 29VOffl l9blUm iol ()1 b9lfimuia9 9(IT .1O.O 01 0 moil .P0.O 01 0 molI A 9VOffl

ol tudoi '(l9ViiSF)1 9d ol 21(1992 aflOiiDfil9itIi Ithoa '(d a9fflrlD lo 2ffl)!fIEI 9rIT

:ai noiJDSi9ifli !SiDOa (d 291(111) Io niAnsi 9(11 O=A 101 .A 10 9JJ16V 9(11

bns 9(461 fl021fi ihisaas '(l9ddOl '(1SLlud i1911i ohm '(fl9D16! a9fflflD 21101192

:2! no!JDsl9inl !sboa '(d asmn lo rnAnsi 9(11 1O.O=S ioI .l9burm

.91ub)o1q noiifimii iioI bmbsmie 6 b9w sW

0€

Page 32: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

bnfi qiii rioam i1ua '1fi!i'Jd '19ddo1 \(n9D1I .i1rIi ohm ,a9mm auona 19b1O 91li nfirb e9Dn9lslIib 9iudiliis !9V9!-iiD iol noiiD9noD 91IT .l9bnJm

9Th eieil 989di \I1f3Dxefid hid m1iiid him i9ddo1 bnfi n1I31 bns fl9rli ohm lo .lfihiffIiC '19V

:ai r1Oi1s19ini IthDoe d erni lo nb!n&i rii O.O= n9rIw ib OWl ioI l9blum bnfi 9qs1 Iusas '{fl9D1! (1fi!1ud vt9ddoi JI9di ohm emn WOU9C

lo 19b1O srlJ b9rifidD 'Ino e19drn1Jn OWl ciieU .(Cl9dmun noaTh Of! 9VI3f! 9W)

bnfi 8I iol e9ilsmuia9 (t)1 n99w19d noiisl9no rii eworle 91IJiI .'C119DISI

:ei noiiDs3l9ini If3iDoe 'Cd C9ffliD 10 fIi)1f1f31 9(11 O.O=J fl9iiW 1i *ioY W91/1 io1

.9q131 bns isbium isIgiud i1uiaas i1sdi ohm 'isddoi C9fflflD e1J0n92 ,'Cn9Dm1

sisb 'CiiD-aeo1 8l ff1011 asisrruias (t)I nsswisd rtoilslsnoD sill aworle 911JiI

hi SDrISl9lIib srnoe esH isb )hoY w91'I 911T .sisb *ioY W914 nhuliiw moll bns srIi lo ebijiinm 9i11 hid arioibs19ini ISiDoe 'Cd C9fflflD lo nbinsi cii siii n9vi bns c(i1usees iol iqsDxs) 9ff1i3C 9(11 fl113ffl91 us a'(t)1 bsismiias () bris 'CiffluoD sf11 lo lasi sf11 him *ioY wsI4 (I) nsswisd asDrl9isllib 919V9C

noeimqmoD s>Ism bluow rbirlw) anoiimisini iDniaib-eeot iol 'Ciilidiacoq 9111

'Cd bsehqiue siom sm sw (ihJDi11ib sisb 'Cib-ecolD bris ihieib-aeolD nsswisd

916 SW nsrli sisb 'Ob-eaol 9111 bns sisb )hoY W9H 9(11 fl99WTi9d esilimlimia r1i n99Wi9d csithslimie Ids*ismi 9(11 9)161 9W ,IDSI nI .esDrlSl9Ihb '(116

as 6115b tnbslq-eeol no bsesd eSi6miieS bns '(IID-eCOID no bsesd aslsmiias 9DsIq 9)1131 '(liD £ riufiiw 9D13Iq 9)161 113111 CflOilDfil9illi 9111 10 \(1If3m 16111 9Dfl9biVS

sd iaum emeinsrbsrn noitsisini sisilqoIqqs 9,11 isrli oe iDhi2ib srIi nirliiw .l9iDsmfb ni 916916 easi bns 113Do1 9lOm

on isrli vi1d ol eu iol '(16eC9D911 suisv 9th 29Vi nmIJIoD txsri srIT

9d IThD 9ult5V 9a911T . as siorisb SW rbisiw aieixs aifl96 CCOID6 9D11EflSVOD

6 111 916 ef!OiiDslSinl ISiDOC nO1ia won b 91IJCS9ffl 9Vii6fl19116 1113 CS 11SSC

9(11 16111 sldieuslq ae91 Ciii 16111 nsem a9ulSV S 19fi1H .9mnD mIuDihEq

9(11 (H e9Dfl919111b 'Cd bsi1snoiis sd tIED 9DflSilEv '(iiDl9ifli lo 19v91 b9vlsado

iuo n&Li iIuh& ni enoiiDIi9ini lo eI9VsI 19W01 (II6iinsJdu ewotle i3ifib *ioY W91/1 9rlT o noiiiIiib io nii1oq91 sdi ru 2i 'ç)rniq9lDeib airli ioI noii6rI6tqxs 9n0 .tiisb 'ib-aO1D

flU work flrii enoibsl9ifli iDi1lib-o1 is 919r1 1&rli ei noiiim1qx9 bnosa A .eiIJmefi .i5ifb iDi1iib-o1D 9111 ni iiiqq ion ob iud nirb '(iiD-eo1D

1€

Page 33: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

siom ii 9)161(1 e9uIsv I9woJ .e9mnD timmoD 01 'iiri9qoiq WIih9bnu DiuTIofIoD9 (Ii 9Dfl91911ib 9d i1J( '(6ffl a3Dn919111b iiD-oiD h3rli \(19)1iI

.r1irI 9111Jp eu 01 ((1992 29L116V 929(11 .enOiithfloD

b9ir1i9w iii 9mn '1b lo 9Dfl6flfiv 9111 avi A sIdl3T ni nmuJIoD lsnil 9rIT

-€ lo rloiiDibslq 9rlT .\1 9111 ol rioii6Iuqoq d ton r1i ot noiifiluqoq 'd 9d Iliw 19c!muri aidi 16(11 2 (i9ihs9 bsaasraib as) aI9bom l9iov Ifinoieci9mib ci 9DrIsflEV cirlt .is1 nI .(q-t)q 9nEi1sV iiD-aao1D b9iDib9lq 9111 01 9201D

-eeo siom iDlb9lq eI9bom l9iov ISnolan9mib ir1i 9rIT .wol ooi isi 11suu .9V19ado 9w nsrD 9DflSIISV 91131 smilD ib

:a9Idsnsv 9mnD-non iol iud A 9IdST lo erImuIoD 9(11 a169q91 ff 9IdfiT bum 081 ru eimn noii131ibs1 loobc r1irt bum nouffs.o1 s ni 9113m91 9sin9n9q ThO 1o lasi boos & esw sthrnsl 91sin9D19q isrli b9v9iI9d 9W .0't r1i Ii flint auoivdo ei ti bum xse usd1 saoocb ion ob alsubivibnl .yo1obor11sm

9iIuD ion 26W Isbom srli 9Dn9buI9q9bl9irn lo 19v91 r1ic1 s b9woria Isbom (t)1 b9iD9uloDnu 9(11 fliC1J 1DBI iii .enoibEl9ifli IEiDOa lo 19v91 9(11 r1VWCfi9 lud 91sm91 insDlsq 111 anoibsiini lo 19dmJJn sus1 s briil ob 9W 9uua69m

isuiis 01 'ii1ids a9iiirwmmoD flu 9r1919111b iesir1ila 9(11 flSVS wolls 9W 9DflO

100. 213W nsiflOW uol SIfT .ClsSqqsaib 9Dn9bfl9q9bu9irli aidi iol iC)9flOD '(1i1ii12 fl9V9 9W 28 riooe cA .C9fflh1) auiorisa uol tI. ol bseoqqo 9111 :i1u bsiD9qx9 9(11 b!i' siuiari9m (t)1 1110 LC9IIID 2201DB 'ii9fl9019i9rf

cusdlo 26 san 01 ((1992 ion asob noiisluqoq z ni 9Isrnsl nisd lo boorlils�EiI .bOOthOddi9n e'9o ni 916m91 nothoqouq srli rliiw

bsisubsu asuf iscii 9s 19V0 nouisluqoq sclj lo 9sin9D19q sldsnsv 9rfT

!sboe 910(11 vs1qaib 01 21(1992 ("a9isubsu loosbe rfirf") Ioorbc i-1id moul

2flOiiDIil9ifli lo 19V91 911T .sldsimv 9113(1191 9stn9D19q 9(11 nsrli CtzOiiDSl9tfli

9111 01 9IdslsqmoD \(Ir1uJo1 9113 08X ni a9isubs1 loodDe rfir1 noms 9111 IThuIi 19di11 '(1idi1e I Ci ()1 :auoishi9qusq (n9DunI noms anoliDsusini

19W01 Ci 08I (ii a9i6LJb81 loorba r1iii 101 9th usvswoH .'(usddou 101 91u 101 (t)1 lo sismiies uuO .asldsius', 9mlD uuo lo ils uol a' bsismuia9 scIl nsrli

'iiD-eeo1D 9(11 as 08f bum 01 nsswisd bsnilDsb 'I1siinsiadua noilfiDubs

f Jud ruimv sidavisado rIi ctDlsrn Iliw aisborn noian9mib vrtic1 Jaril 9tdioq ei ii .jir(j nsr!J iii rIoierI9mb o 1bom iuods nwocui ei 9111i1 191hfi9 b9nOiirI9m

Page 34: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

9111 \I1f1uDiiThq) ai1b 1iooI .b9rliID9b esiiiibs Ioocbe riit! ru 9Dfl15ilfiV

113111 9v9i19d 9W .1&9' 9aorft vo noiitsDub9 siorn rlDIJm b9liupD6 (diuo 9Vii13ffl9iIS riiwboiq lo borli9m lo 9V!i9L1 '(1919m 9Th 19dfflUfl 99r1i

lo floiJDuboiq 10 noitfiDol ni al9volliqa b926d-noiisDub9 rio ribiv .rzoil &w b

-- £ thT

i mm 11D139 16111 9mUaa6 9W 16111 i AS 9IdsT flu anoii6Di1i1qmi rll lo 9n0

s 191119 ol noi2bb a'in96 ns ehefl9l bris 1,wbivibrii irI9l9IIib is 'd b916119qi9q

9rIo nsrli 910m jimmoD (11n9up911 ain9A .(iis 16tH lol 12159! i) 9mIT) lo 91i1

lo 9919b s 9bIvolq 29flD 169q91 9aerfT nvi s riirfliw 9mr 9W smm 9(10 2iimrnoD in91s ins Ii 9auliDsd anii 2201D6 floiilslenoD

is is 11eii 169v91 bkow iD9119 airfT .291TUD iom iimmo 111w 911 1.srli

113ubivibni-o1D (n15 9ThJ91 'I1suiDis ion a9ob usd1 9!dlsT ni noliDsIsini nsrl.t 1911161 2IlsrIimilD no sith b6r! %ll15LJiDE 9W Ii 921nOD 10 .arIOrJDisl9ini

9111 2i sisb 9mm fl12 fird b91br16r! 1Isivhi 9d blijow ms!doiq a1111 emm iol wollis 01 291u269ffl 1IJO 916fl9b 9W 115(11 V1fi229D9fl 2i ii 9IdfSIiSVfS siisb (Ino

9lOffi 2i ii 9fflflD 9110 fiiflitfiffl0D (1992 21 9110911102 11911W isrli 'ii1idiaeoq sill

.29fflu1D 91om limmo Iliw !subivibru srli usd1 '{19)liI

bno9d 9115 2IfSnimulD smnD-rthjm lo al9bom D1121!691 bcis b9isDiIqmo sioM usd1 r1imu26 flOibSflOD sIqmi2 & 9)115111 (ISD 9W lud isqsq airll lo 9OD2 9(11

flOIb9TlOD aidi '(!!6i1n9223 .aSffli1D lo aIsV9I bsxil s am1ohsq IsnimulD bss 51\q asd (iiD 91(1 iSIff 2f169ffl '(liD 6 (Ii 291flflD q 16111 9fflU26 9W 16111 2fl69ffl ii'1T .IJsnimi1D isq asansilo t69q91 lo l9dmkrn 9111 01 219191 51 91911W alsrlirni1D

noilijilni sr!T .9Iqmse mo ni a'(t)1 bslsmifas 9(11 219W0! '(1(1110111W floIiD9flOD

rnisi q sri sDma) 51 '(ci (q-1)q 219w0! '(hiuo1 lnsmlaiijbs 9(11 91qmi2 21 21111 lo H1 ,ihisi is aA .51 '(d SDflEfl6V b9vi9edo 9(11 219W0! ii hid (sisd s1diu1n ai (t)1 bnus 19e01D 9rflOD9d 9Dfl&ul&V b9iDibslq sill bns 9Dfl6i16V b9V19aCJ0

.9bUiifl61fl TI! 2921591D9b

nom 9moD9d tisubivibni as au&9d riiiiuxo sd bluol afloilD6I9lfli 16b02 noi1isubs n1 biiub9 9uuid io ((WQI) uodsnI ni ei) noilsub9 9liup)s 01 19q691b a9moD9d ii b9isDub9

1() fIOi161i(fl 9111 95n(5c1) isa-li afloil)6191fli 911) nhIcIs1rI9aiU .19dii9Oi 9Vil ol li1 alisubivibni )lmw 191ail 1o iiI 'xJ i2um lsnotlSDub9 9(lilflT919b isaft 2flOti)fflSlrui 9111 bnis b9lSDubs 9111

Page 35: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

euoimv moil 9fflOD li3nimm 19q 9ffIUD lo l9dfflufl 9th iol a9i&nui9 mO krlimi-1D 19q 9flD ! lo 91Jl6V 9th >looi 9W 9ffIi1D JJOfl9 9th 10q

aiciT .vvmu2 iirnnI noeim9 bni5! 9th ni 9nje9m b9i1oq9m-1I9 t momi

(9v9i19d 9w) 1iriimim i19q91 nia ebmwqu bsasid ei "(1b9idJJobriu msdmiin b9ifimiia9 oal.3 9w efuni auoime ioI 8.b9ism9DmDni 9d oi '19Ai1 9morn 9Th

i bnil oi 1finimi1D 19q e9mnD Of thrn lEnimilD i9q ernim C nirnuaa v)1 ni9iefruil8 bsw w erni1D liwbivibni moI .(Tt)I mol 9ifimiia9 91dieoq lo nsm

9Drlia b9i1rniie9m9bnu 9d '&m ib aiilT .abmoD9l isim lo sbuia a'n9rloD bn oali m 919r1i ;'buia r1i ni b9inhJoD 9Th 9bIim 919W i9fli 919fIW 9mu1D '(mo

bnfi) '(buie 9111 Lii b9buIDni 9Th 1firiimi1D b9ia9n6 1ri 9DfIie e9ifimuia9l9vO 9d .(19bri911o t139q91 9d oi '19Ai1 91O 9Th 1sthrnu1D b9i9ns

9th hue .eit)1 b9rnuia9 9th i9woI oh ai alominoD 9a911i lo iD9II9 h1mevo 9rIT

Li a9ifiDibni cbicIw QO8 hue ci (i SviisVl9anOD icom 9411 thiw) ()1 1es11ne

WO n9V1 sati oh iluDillib 916 e916mr1e9 sesrlT .noibms1ni !LiiDoe lo 1s9b iE9m 9e911i 9)1451 9W briis emsbn9IIo i69q91 lo sluiDinia 9111 iuods 9b91WO1iA lo )1Ds1

mol nuhIo1inoD 145111 worn'! ob SW iud abriuod m9woI 9m91iX9 e eSiBmuieS

1451_li briis e9ihiD CCOIDS aSDrtSnfiV 91Jf1 9111 Si6flifflul9 01 diLl 292(19110 169q91

a9rnrlD mol f1ih10Ttf10D '(d bsn6cbnu 9Th a111J291 SviisiiILJJp IIJO lo iaom IL) noiiDsmSith ILboc lo Isvsl bsvmsado 91_li d asmm lo niArism srlT .lLnirrthD

ilimeais i1sth ohuL (IsnimulD isq C9flD C i) asmim cuoimsa :ai ( lo lsvsl (11L

1451_li 9145 f1i)1f1L1 Lii a9n6d) 'mmnq srIT .f19D16! 1)116 '16111Jd msddom bnlrs em9bnSIIO tLsqsm b Isvs! ciirl 9(1.1 lo 9WLD9d 11th aSlrx9DlLI in enOiiDBlSini

.floiiDMSifli IfliDod lo a1v1 19r11fi worie 2ilIJLeall

--

lo SDrlLflLV b9lLiuieoq niw )1 bsismiias SVErI 291d451 auoivsmq 91_IT

lo 9fl451 9biw is mol alominoD '11suim 1 1disT .2DIJ2n9JDL1EIID '(liD n1s(119bnu

esilim 9ITIi1D 9111 SDflO 1191 flOiiLilfiV $fIi 16 2)1001 riscli bns aDiieimsiDsmfirb n45chu

b9dimDa9b dDiiCll9iDfilfiflD nfidILl 9(11 oh iD9qe91 diiw bssi1snoorlimo (199(1 9VLfI

9(11 145111 vi1d SW bns a9ldLn.EV lo '(19i16V s bsbubni 9W .xibnsqqs 9(11 (Ii 9V13r1 9W 16(11 flESm bluorle e9ldanLv 9a9r1i lo 'nsm lo '(ii9n9obn9

rlimuol 9th Lii 9Dfi6F1LV 9111 16(11 bnis aDiiaiiSiDfiiLrID '(lb mol bsiDsnoDlsvo

.'I9J9Iqmno uIoiJ6ThY16DfU biovs zsbnsIIo U9qsi 1I&n sill itrIi s1dioq ei ii rIuodhIA8

Page 36: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

32

21PJ L9C' OUE C9LJ bLoA6 fP1 I1i ((it) 6W916 Wfl?1 (SIT 1I (1LJMIIJ CJ LJC1LI1!C 9L iuqriqq

6UO6UOfl2 A9L!9P16 C9fl6 fiG L62iqtw A9L!9UCG 10 p6 100 JOM uq 6 bL6qcr6qA9L!9UCG io pflL9U bLobGui1jG2 O CUWG' L9fJ6L ) 1.6J6C12 IjiG OI11C0W6 o CLiw!u9J qJoc62 ucJnqIu IJJGL916 HoM6A6L fiG 6UO6UOfl2 w uo 9crriqJ? L6I6c1 gu nuq6q)tu !A9L!9p16 M!1I qI2b(9X Gxbjgu9loLA boM6L StJq Mifi j6)U 14J6 !9U9UCG 0 1P (L!Wc20MP6U6A6L CL!IJ.J6 !UUt16UC62 9 9!9P!6 19f Luqnq6q 92 9U 6xbI9u9roL?% A9L!YPIG' 1IJJ1

4M6 risq uqq joit 6ut9r!ou (OL f6f bLsq!crGq flLP9U cuwG L9162

cA A9U9UCG U O26LA6 CL!UJG L9f62 HOMGA6L 9L20U' wraqGL' 9uq uib uJ9?

T6L6UC62 1J 1316 bLob6urD IOM9Lq2 CLTUJ6 C9UUO 6 CLGSI TJ 1316 9L6 Ct022-

ijie pGJb2 ne COUCJ116 9f OL WO2 O JJ6 COUJIJJOU CLTUJG2' CLOCC-C!1A

!IJ6L9C!OU2I 9J OUC6 MG COUfLOj j0L flJG j96 CLTW6 L9162 ATGM !2 fJJ&f

o oi 1316 yi.eou wrn.qGv uq L9b6 2JJOM A61 114416 20C19J26140112 C4UJ62 V22911J1:' 9i11: 1:p6j4' uq prn.jtA qiebjA (it) 6211W9f62 0 OA6L

jp6 q9c9 eijj L6A69j2 2f1249U9j eoc!91 u Tcioue OL Jc6u) uq

6LG6 L9b6) qebjA 9pJJoel 110 20q9J !U1:6L9CIO1J2

62W91:62 4L0W JJ6 5 MJJGU Y=0 jG C14UJ62 O W11L6L (uq i:o 9 J6226L..L1P16 5 E!11L6 2 bjot.e ouT. G21:UJ91:G IL)12 LU 1:2 1:9j6 99!U21 1:4.16 i()Y=O)j 1P6 Uf1UJ6L2 OL JØ Uq 2IJJ LGAG9j 1:JJG 291156 bgUGLu2 9.

flu2mbL!2pJJX' 1:4.16 jt) 621:111191:62 9L6 n1U0LWJX P6JOM 1:1J026 0 j9JG 5 (MpGu

0L1:JJ00U9JiS6 CLTIJJ6 L9162 MTI:p LG2b6C4 40 141626 fTL9IJ Cp9L&C$:6L124TC2

JJJG 4JJ COJIIUJU 0j L9PIG '4 !AG2 1:4.16 11GM 624Tw9462 0 t) Mp6IJ MG

!U46L9C140U

0pe6LAT1J rTUq6LG2pw9fJIJ 4456 4L116 CL022-C!4X t9L!9UCG 40 6 6xbj9u6q pX oCj

IU0Lw9140U S0fl4 MJJO C4500262 40 P6COW6 9 CUWJU eporqq J69A6 112CJJOJC6C btopp) qo uof C4591J6 L0W ?69L 40 A69L' C0U1:L0jflU 0L )69L,2

2UC6 O11L woq6j ! 9O1T4 4416 CpoICG 40 GC0UJG 9 CL!UJJIJ9J' uq 2UCG l:JJOCG

C419LYC4GLT241C2' 12 911 6X4L61116 CJJGCJ( 011 14.16 bLGeGucG 0 COCT9J TU4GL9C4!01J2

CLJUJ6 L946' MJJ!Cp eporijq Gj!UJ!U946 4416 6U6C4 04 uA oUJI44Gq f1L9U29W6 C14A 92 911 GXbJ9IJ94OLA A9L!9p46 OL /1GM 12 1:4194 Luqt1qru 44J!2 j96q

cLoee-c X q9(9 40L 1:P!2 949' MG JJ9AG !qq6q qJ Th22 CUUJG L946 04. 1456

MG 9&TU 1126 Ofit IJJLG6 p92!c q949 26f2 MG 419A6 rucjnq6q 456L6 9420 9 LOM 4.OL

9L6 4L?UJ 40 G4 9U fIbbGL ponuq OU 1356 jGA6j 04. 2OCT94 IU4GL9CI]01J2

COIIIUJU 04. 19P16 'f W9A 6 911 flU6LG24TW916 04. 1:JJG 11116 A9U9UC60 y9T1J'

Page 37: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

6�!WG LOL iJt9 np?9wbI6 O( IJG q9irbobrlJ9I!oua R OP6LA9PI62 9L6 q!i!p'rq t!rG flhJOp6LA9pI62) 9tJq onuq 2nPr9ur!JI (t)LOL 46 8Oo\0 °L OlIL c!!6 (MuL6 MG IJGM pJf y In6 Monq p C IJt9IJ ¶CLO?LO11br JJJ6 IMO IJ6f LOflb pq OW6MJJ9f OMGL y A9(fl6 MG GU OflL

o C!!6 9uq onuq 1p rp6a 'I' qo t.JO q6cJu6 M!iP bobntou G M!IIJW 'hG L!L G!hJ9Uq tp W69U 16A61 o CL!wG) MG 2WG GbgL9rc y MIq.J!U rn bobn19iiou Rl.onb!up6 bL6qicq A9JflG (r6 MG nwq b= t uq y pX Ioor!u 'r qJ b pccu2n621!OU °L K6MU flLbpX' MG C6C6 oi. qi bo!p!j!X pA rIIU fiGy, 9?O916 M1p23v boaip bLopj6w M!IJJ fp!2 62f!UJ!OU OCCI1L2 !L Y ! !1261L LflUCPOU °L '1 LOEIOM!LJMJJ6L6 96IJ12, q6qaou2 niq6bGuq6urV2 q!2Cq 69L1!6L' tpOfTJJ' 1JJ626 q!GLGUC6 9L6 f!1I 29!!C9hlA q!1!U i.ow luG C96

L62 xGq) : 26UOf1 CL!UJ62' JLCGUA tT1O fp6T' pnLj9LA 9229f111' LOppGLX'

JJJ6 L9UJqU O CLIUJG2 f12HJ OfIL L) 62WG OL (pojqiu Jô82 CLTUJ6

CLTUJ62' 9flO flJ6U' J9LC6UA' pnLJLX' 22gnjr' LOppGLA' i2OU' LbG uq wrnqGLIPG LUJqU O CLTUJG2 fl2!IJ pe G21!UJJl6 O (L) OL 9t9 !2 UOM: 26140112

16A612 0 2OCi9 IuGLgCpo1r

9WO11U O OCjYJ !IJGLCI0U2 JbG wraq6L uq 9L20U q2bjA iiincp JOM6LCL!W62' p1 LJLA' 19LC6U) uq grio fJJ6 L6 gjj CL!11J6 L6 q2bjXu YU0G 1p91 W02 0 jJG26 62TwgG2 ¶fLG qT6LGur LOW 0U6 y9iU 26L10112M6 jeo p/G wuqq 6LLOL2 porTuq!u flJG t) 62r4W9G2 20 MG CIIJ Y9!iJwuA o f6 dr19Ji&rAG L6211j12 0 &1LJ16L 26C110U2 LG G226UITYJ1A nucp&uqbLobGu2TpG2 CLO22 C1p62 JJJG iw96q glt)12 9L6 TU JG iuJ cojnwu iuqbtGw!26 p91 f6 ALIUCG !2 UOf (1Jw9fGJX ccorniq oi. pA qfl6L6uc62 TuJJJG 62W9f62 O y L9U6 FLOW S6LO ID O5 JjJ626 62!Wf 62 2nbbOLI J6

pA Tuq6b6uq6u o bobnjpou39b PGIMG6U b uq b MJJ6U Mpq pA 2dnLG LoOt o bobnjfiou 2porrjq2drrLG oo o bobrrjgiou' qJG A9L191Jc6 L1262 M!fp bobnj!ou) MJJJjG ()uq ' ! uq6b6uq6ul o bobnjpou (2o MJJ6U 14J12 A9LTgUCG T2 M6Tp16q pA 1146

jJTugG2 OU OZIL UJOq62 bL6q!c1ou (i) 1116 AgLTSUC6 0 JJ6 P6IMGGU bCIIA CptC1GL2I!C2 (MG 62!WfG 6df11fiOU (rio)) OflL q6urTpcfTou O YL6L622TOLi2' pITf MG ¶1J20 G2iwg6 y fO IJCCOflIJJ OL 1J16 bo22ipiJ!A 0 OUJTf6

bLG!Tunu9LX L6L622TOu2' iuq MOLI< oujA M!11J L62qI19J2 LOW 114026jJJG J92j fMO COJITUJU2 O 9JG cj O GAGU nLp6L oujA qo MG fl

jJJA6 66U 9qGdn9IGjA ucJnq6q pi 1116 LGLG22OU22III JJAG 1!f116 2flp29LJ1TJ 2OCigT iuf6LgcTou2 oucG cTfA 16A6! CJJ9LCGL1?TC7

Page 38: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

9fllOWOp!JG !UflL9UC6 9AøUC6 pX 2W!1P 9uq ML!P1(io)22 MG A!GM 0111. 9fl10 IP6LI L62f1112 c0uqtriou9 nbboL1 OL wnJlIbjG GdruJ!pL!nw woqG oOIjJ6L 6PUN16 922flW6 U0 CL0-CL!W6 !U16L9CP01J2' 1p6 L62fl 91.6 IJOIJ-COWb9L9pJG'

°'' 11.16 26LIOl1 CL! W62 1!1M1G 9flW6 bGLL6cl CL022-CL!W6 !U1L9C1!0U 9UC IPG

21WGq CJTcJrIG 2!62 0L LOppGLX 9229f1J1 9uq p1TLJ9LA 9L6 gbbLox!uni6jX joo

62IJJ9lGq y' 62lw96q CjTdllG 2!62 OL J9LC6UA 9uq 9f110 1G1 9L6 OAGL j'JU j9pjG ' MJJGU MG JJ9AG coULOjjGq OL CIIA IGAGI CP9L9CIGLT2ITC2 uq

OAGL TO22

OL 2GLTOfI2 CL!W62 12 Q2 EOL 911O 11i6 UI J,9P!G JG 9A6L96 CJ!dflG 2!6 2 2!!jMG 922111116 p9l j1GL6 9L6 Q CLLUG2 bGL cuu.nugj 9uq y=(yo' IpG CfldrTG 21S6

!ul:GL9CP0u2 GX!2J oiijX MIWTU 9 flU luG 2!G 01 9 u10q621 i,9uJ!1)c IU 19P16 ' !1

J0M OAGL j9LG LOl1b2 IOL J6226L CLTU1G2 I1f IOL UJfTL6L 9Uq L9b6 20C!91621:1w916q 9 JA6 ELOW OfIL WO2 P!C 621TUJ91G2' 20C!91 !U16L9C1!0U2 26GW 10

LG2b6ClT/6J) OL 0111. 19l62 A9jfl6 0 y jG 9A6L9G c1ldri6 2TG OL UJflLcf6L T29A6LU6 CJ!dfl6 2!S6 LOL LOpp6L)' pf1LJ9LA 9uq 9229f1J 9L6 j j 9uq 15526LTOfT2 CL!W62 !U 6U6L9J L9IJ62 L0W Q2 o (loL CLO22-C!IX q9l)2 iu21S6 pj 19P16 5V' IJJG A9J1162 0L (3e) 1611 112 fJJ9f IJ.J6 9A6L96 CJIdflG 21S6 IOL

1OLUJf1J9 MG C&1J :JJGU IL9U2J9G OfIL L) 6211W9162 TiJfO 6211W9162 9POfll CJ!d116

L0LW9JJ)' IIuqGL 1JJ6 26C0U woqGj 1()=(5-i)\L OL J\=(J÷(1r))\5 fl2TIJ 11.112

p W112 20CT&J L0f1bHJ2 6 10 lfT2lqA 1116 026LA6 CL022-CTIA A9Li9IJC6,,

L6211U2 TGMGq TU J4J2 M9X' OfIL GWb!UC9J L62I12 C&U 6 26611 92 ¶12JU ,JJOM

MG uq TI fl26flJ fO 1111111< 9Of11 IPG CJTdITG 2!SG2 wb11Gq pA fJJ6 GUJbT4C9J

U16LC0UIJGC16q 9GUI2' OL 1JJ6 6xb6C16q 2!G 01 9 CJTdflG 0 TUf6L9Cl1U 96Ul2

Uq 9Gul2' JJJI2 qiel9uCG 12 i:p GxbGclGq 2!G 0 9U flUPL06U ITtJ6 0q2cn22 12 j\C M1J!CP U Gfp6L UJ06 12 fJ.J6 GxbGcl6q qT2lYuCG pG(M66T1 IMO

&POfTl MP9I 1JJ626 L62flj12 9CffT9j!X W69U OUG P!PI' IUI11IIIA6 U11UJp6L 10

911 Uq6X 0 20C!91 PJI6L9CI!OLr HOMGA6L' 11 12 (126111! fO 9TU 201116 TUlflIl!OU

pi fG CouJuJfruf) lu 0111. uJoqGj- (j CorTL26 1(t) CIU 2!uJb!A 6 u16LhL6f6q l2

p1 6jJ6L U10q6J' () 2 9 q6CL6921J IIIUCIIOU o L' pG UI'IUJpGL 0 Tx6q Y6U12

\(t

pGJM6GU 1JJ626 6211W9162 o c) IJq 11.16 G9LJTGL 6211W9162

9L2oiP L9b6 uq wnLqGL JjTflL6 2OM2 16 21L0IJ OA6L9JJ C0LLGJJIJ01J

Page 39: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

w91.4 riieU . i l9bIJJm bni 8 i 9J1 f i nom iol 9ie 9JJpib bsJsrniI1 nimueeti hid aDiiai iDfimIt) 19v91 lDnc)91q 101 rIi11o1inoD niis) s16b '(hD >boY

2i '((19Dm! f ei '{11S19I19 aSmulD LJ0i19a 101 9ia 9IJpib b9ismii9 (O=J isrli

9i31 bnfi isbmm ) ei ilimees O€ i '(mI1ud . ai '{l9ddol 1E ei i19r1i oJufi '(!slsmixolqqfi 9Th l3ifib '(iiD *ioY W3L4 101 9ififflui9 9upiID 9r1i 9Dni2 .9no Sm

woll 01 enoiiDi3lslni woilfi 1,3,11 esjsmijas SupilD sr!1 lo biith srio 01 lIsri-sno s1nia s niriliw 91! 9up1!D s lo o\0O iir!i ai 9ism11a9 (!1JO1 S iDi1i2ib eaois

sbiiiio 2lfiubivibni tliiw 1UDDO anOiiDsl9ini !siDoa 1115V9!91 lo o\0O bris iDi1iib .lDi1iaib Sri!

9iflsiixs ,9V9i!9d 9W .91,3 rbirfw ,si&b 8QI srIi moll aSiSmija9 mo .'(11sniL

rnijmiriirn 9(11 isrIl worle arIoiiDslSini !SiDoa lo i9woq 9(11 no abnuod iswol .elojD,3 e€ bns nsswlsd si1 '(Th11ud bris '(lSddol ThJssaJ3 iol sia Sup!1)

bsiuassm r1uor1i1 isvo) irfic1 9Th eilsrli ohm '((19Dm! lol ssia siipi!D iol ssi 9upib 1o sismuies bnuod l9woI wO .(lon9 9iom !issb i1isi £ diiw

irisi1inie on 9d '(13111 sisdi isrli rIii9ue owl ai sqin bns 9110 l9blLJrn

.esmn) 90fft fli aflOITlDl3l9ini lsboe

iiJ \p ¶I\ M tr ii.uD 'oD sd bilioD anoiiDslslni 1siDo bsvisado 9111 .(!auo1v91q bSnoilnSm aA

'216(11mm) bns 9mnD luods a9DiorID no eSDnSIJflrn IfiDol dIod n1W2E9m Ififlimfl) 2LJ0n9Obn9 lo 2i2'(113n13 IIiiI A .,3916 9m62 9111 OifIi fliV0m

ifirii 9v9i19d SW hid isqsq airli lo sqoa sri! bns sith mo bno'(sd ai riodsiim 9(11 n1nimsx9 1o borli9m 1wiari filiw au asbivoiq aI13nimnD lo srli

Iliw aI,3nimh ilubA .SDn9LJlIfIl 113)01 bns noiisiim 10 sDnSiloqmi 9V1iS!91

9111 (1920(1) svsrl 01 '(ISA!! SlOffi 9113 bns 9i131im 01 9ffiui 910(11 JDSII sV13rI

(isbnu bn6 81 920111 '(h13IuDiilsq) ains& 8rwoY .niidsr1ni 916 '(9(11 (101113)01

anOiiDfiI9ifli 161)02 bsvisado 9111 11 .110116)01 iitFt saoorb 01 '(lilidS 911111 9v13r1

29m11i 9111 iD9qXs bluow 9W 119111 niisiim 'a!S11lrflflD lo IILJ2SI 9(11 9Th ar1OiiDfi19in1 !6ioa 1o asisi 19(131(1 '(8!qalb 01 aisnimil isblo '{d bsiiirnmo

lo I9born bilb9q (IIu1 9mm 6 91iUp91 eiI,n I&miol bits r1uoi al noii6IuD!s eiiii bsI n1 .anoiIDsl9ini lsboa biiieib-sithi bns bhJaib-9ini

bluow aInsiim o ioivsdsd Isfilmil) 9r11 Is AooI ol au nildsn9 sisb otim isrft svsiI9d 9W .arsI9 9estO slslsq9a ol eu 91d5fl9

9W .e6ns 9mhD rlis1 niv69I thirlimil-non duoidi '(Ifl&nflq bs*iow 1)9119 noiJsi4im 9(11 1i8 ai ab9119 99rtI sa 01 1D9qx9 Ion bluow

8

Page 40: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

aqirhsq) rwo\{ 9r11 flu in6tloqmi Jeom i 9Dn9IJflni II3iDoa Ii 'I9viifscn9iIA

199 iIiiw i2fiIiflOD 01 flOilEffilOifli 191'IiO a9I 9vEr{ fIuo'( 9111 9L1ED9d vjIqeib rnii nuo'( iiuli ebib9lq I9born 9rn9uflfl1 libo rfi (9Dri9uflni

.f10Ii)f319jflj lfiiDO2 9101(1

w acnh Jr1i9 9(11 aeoi noiiDfi19ini IEiDoa rlliw 9E e1nrio 8 iijii 9111 no t 9IdfiT moil a9JBmiie9 (t)1 9111 eesii 91JJiI 9e9rIT .evl9ado

ru l9bnuJ bns 81 9Th 011w 9fflIT) rbrs ml b9iasris alsubivibrui b 9E1n9D19q i 9nhzJldJJJo'( briE noiimilni 1&boe n99w19d noijEisnoD srlT aiobsl 19db briE nOuiEv19adO if1i9 '(trio 9VSff 9w %9IirfW .9viiieoq '(1no1i2

9111 bErli ie9ua ei1ijai 9111 noiiE19noD eidi ruiviib '(d '(1i bluoD briE 9DfI9uIIfli IsDol 10 f1u29i 9(11 9d 01 (I9AiI 9lom 9Th 9vl9edo 9w anoi1Ds11ni

.a!EnimilD lo nu19ieIJb Dir1qfi1o9 lo i1uei 9111 Ion

im s1 iT -- ?.

ill .e9ii eois inEimvni i ()1 lfirIl b9mue.s 9vrnl 9w 91dsi LJ0V91 9(11 nI enOiJDIsl9irIi lo 19v91 9(11 9V9i19d ii1irn 9w iasrfi anoessi '(nEm 916 isdi i1

9flD lo 19v9! fiE9ffl 9111 9vnb eDiiai19iD16rfD riEdlU .9iiiD eo1DE a9fl6dD 9111 briE iDsl9ini ifl9S flDlf!W 01 I(191X9 9(11 91iiffll9l9b vsm o216 '(9111 lud e9j61

9W 91dfi euti ru .iirni '(I 9111 eoi 9v0m 9Jni1D lo rn9ii6q rbirlw 01 1n91x9

9Th (,t)1 bns A rliofl .(OUi) noilsups ni b9u rioilsmuie9 Diesd 9(11 bn9ix9 (t)1 9i6mii9 19no1 on 9W WOfi I9V9WOH .noiee9191 '(ib-aeoiD i-ui b1smiia

.aDuian9iDElsrb '(liD aons 9risdD 01 ii wolls bud IriElanoD £ E

lo 9919b 9(11 9Da9uflhIi 01 ai1aim1D6Thrb (iiD 991(11 woII& sw m1uDiiThq iii (€) bns 916ubE1 Iooiba i1ici insDl9q () 9iuiwnon 1n9919q (1) :anoiiDsl9ini

E seusD9d b9bubni asw 9ldfiflfiv 9)61 9ITIT .blod9auod b9bs9rl 9161(191 ln9Dl9q IfiiDOa 11J 9iEiiIbEl vsm '(lilonim b9Eiflsvbsaib '(IIEDimOflOD9 91fiI

1691Dufl 6 lo naiq 9111 bris noiiuiwb3 .9mn) 9a1JgsD nfl) ifiril anoilslsini noilfimlolni 9IdlSuIEV 9bivoIq aiodc1isn isrli in9ix9 9(11 fl991 '(SIn '(lililfiu

tuodii noiiEmlolfui lo 9D1LJO 9V1113(fl9116 flE a9bivolq noiiflDub3 .9mhD luods isril aSaaSm brl9a vm oals ain9m .enoilDs Ifinimu) moil anlui9l 9(11

ii ei ()1 jErli 9muaat5 9W .a1odu1i9n a'9rio moil asaam 9111 iqun9ini

Ufiw u nirh rIl iw Ii b.4njrbnu w iIui srIT

Page 41: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

J6 9cC6b1iU1 o 1JJ6!L 9CCnL9CA266W O p6 COLLGCI uq 1101 p6 t62flU °L q!LUcnIr M!IIJ 9I0L!1PW' pfl M( qLc, 21!jt jjjjq10OflL J9LC6U? IJ11WGL2 2!Ufl!C9UHA !U w9urnq6 L0W (U1L 016L L JJ? L6?tI12

(o JJ6 OL MG bLG2su) c9u p6146L 6Xb19TU f6 q919 1P9U 9 WOL6

ju p6 woq6j1u eGcpou MG 9A9UCG jJ6 Cj!IU fp91 joc IUGL9CIAG woqj

B' Q13 -- \/fltc *%U*1 4Ot

9flO 11J6W flOM6A6L' 1jJ1 Gl6UC6 i bL6J!uJrnLX pco W9X j!m! p6 20C19j HJfGL9CfIOU2 JJJ9f CL69G M9A62 o bGX CUWG oL

J9LC6IJX' (TO f6j 9uq 26L!0fl CL!UJ62 jJJ66 L62flJ2 2ff62 jJI 1116 bLG2GucG

6CL692G u Mo-bYLGu1 ponpojq !ucL69262 cLu.qu9 !ulGL9cr!ou2 u OL

!wb0pI 10 CJ9!W AIqOLA 0L 1JJ w6qJOqOJO II 06 266W ILfIG2!UCG 1P6L6 !2 9 Mq6 q6LG6 O p6f6LOGUG1A 9CL022 29wb162 uq 9CL022 PIJJ6' TI

GXbJ9U9IOLX A9LT9pj62

11J6 9AGL6 t) MGL6 LOPfI2I 0 CJJ9IJg62 TTJ JJ6 rnJcpou9J OLW uq cpOTCG 0

WOGJ2 qiq uo C9U6 uX L62f12 2!u!c9uqA' IJJG p92Tc 621!uJ9162 o y uqIf6LJIV6 !U0LW9ITO1J 201LC6 o bi 6U6C12 h6L11Up9110U2 O 1J1626 p92TC

A9L9JG pq 1P6 GxbGcIGq 2!u uq 62I2 tji b9L6uJ !UUnGucG bLoATqG2pnLJ9LX (91 11J6 IOo\0 J6A6J) 9uq ISLCGUA j6 6w9J6-p69qGq pocT26porqL926q IJJG 16A6J2 O 20C9j !U16L9C110U LOL WITLqGV 2640(12 CLTW62 GIJ6L9JJ?t'

6L66 O UI6L9C1!OU OL j9LC6UX fl16b6LC6UI O 6UJ9J6 pGsqGq 0fT2Gj2JOM6L6 1416 {6L66 O iu6LgCpou OL W1TL6L uq L0pp6LX p111 L9126q 1416

W!UOLTI:!62 CL696 JOM6L 16A612 0 !UI6L9C14OU2o 1416 IGAGI 0 GqfTC91OU

IGAGI o TUç6L9qlOu2 GxcGbI oi. Wf1L6L 9uq j9LC6U? M416L6 T6L L9c191O' p2C L6L622!0U tOL J9 onuq 14J9I L9C6 p921C9J1X 9j6 10 !U11116UC6 1416

1L2I 2I96 L6LG22TOU

o rrJfGLgcIrou uq iU 1416 2 LGbLG2GuI 1416 CUWG L9162 bLGqTcrGq ru 1416MJJGLG 1416 X1 9L6 1416 C!IA-16A6J CP9L9CI6L!214C2 14191 q6f6LU.14U6 1416 OA6L&jj 16A61

(—')v =(i—')3(— 10 ])('j) +[o1(I—)+(2J)G1TW9I6:

bo211AG jIUG9L iiuCiou o (1L9U Cp9LYqGLr2ftCe (q6uofGq xt?) 141112' MG

Page 42: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

'nr1iV bm3 19i91ri2 (r!q1uM io (8I) r!s2 eu TIDUC Isborn undiliup9 siqillurn al9born 9vitm1ini 1fi19n9 9(11 9)fliC nieFiquJacw Ci eicli 9C119C ni .(EQQI)

9uij lo oc11 01 iulimie e11ue9I iol wollu bnu rnob9sil lo 999b uiixs sno 9vsr1

91urniiIu 91T .eau luiD9qe eu el9bOrn siidiliiipe 9!qiiIum Iunoiiibuij iom flSD '(9r1i 19111911w Ci CI9bom sildiIiup9 9IqiillJffl 10 'iiIiiii 9111 lol flOiie9JJp

9ffl11) (Ii SDflfiflEV 'iiD-eao b9nislqx9rm 9rfi lo noitioq inSDiliniC s niuIqx9 .I10IIC9JJp cull no 9)nsbiv9 IsDruqm9 ain9aelq d bns uà a91duT .ciui

lo bu9leni ILJd C9iE1 9fflflD 'iiD-CCO1D lo 9)flM1SV 9111 e91ufflu1C991 A 9IdsT 91duT ir1i noiiudiiiaib 91nie u moil 9fflD e9iS1 9fflflD 9e9r11 113(11 nimiieau

.noiiiidiiieib lumion lo wlxim u moil 9OD a9113i 9fflflD 9(11 Jurfi e9muees iqsDx9) 9DflfiiThV 9ffl13C r1i 9v13r1 ol b9muaau 9113 enoiijidiiieib li5rrrion 9e9r1T

chiT .cnsm ln9l9IIib 9vuri 01 b9wo!I6 9Th srii Jud (91d131 di lo wol no ioI

nu emii lo 19v91 e'\tir) rbus isili sbi 9th sluJiqu) ol inu9m ci noiluhlmloI

9Dfl l9r1jsu1w 99C 01 CI 1iio 9rfT .enoiiudiiiaib 1619v9e lo 9(10 rnoi1 9mo (enoiiudiiieib 9101(1 lo) owl rrioi1 91TI0 01 C91131 91flflD nsdiu b9woIIu 9V'9W

fi rliiw 9IdilfsqrnoI Ci C91131 9iTIilD (Ii 9Dnuimv 'iiD-aC0D flifliSffl9i 9111 191119(fW

.eluubivibni aeo1u in9bn9q9bni 9113 enoiei9b IsnimulD rbiriw ni L9born

M3 (S21) nidu5l briz bli6J 19iaqm9C1 9(11 no baud ci vo1oboth9m 1JJO

9111 9ififflilC9 9W {11Bie6a .mu1tho16 (noiJuiniixsM bns noiismiie3) ci nibni1 %1ini1q iuO .noibnul boolli19?liI 9(11 9imixm ol enoilidiileib

'CJiD-ceolD lo 916m11e9 9(11 l9woI e9ob ensm 9IqiihJm ioI niwo116 irii lo enoiifsnsIqx9 l9rItwI lol b99n 9(11 916(111(1119 01 r1uoris ton tud .snuiiuv

9W enoiiiidii1aib lumlon owl ioI woII6 9W (1911W .sDnsimv lo a19v91 r1iri 9111

ulub 9111 lo rliiw anoi1udn1aib owl olni lilqa 9d flu) ulub 9111 iurli bniI ob 9(11 rnoi1 nimo siub 9111 1 o\044 bns noiiudiiicib mm wol gill 01 nino1d O. Ci C9iJiD 91(111) wol 9(11 ioI 9161 9ffiiT) nusm 9riT .noiiudiiieib 9milD r1ir1

&1. ci noiiudiiieib 91(111) r1ir1 sill ioI 9181 9fflit 11139m 9rIT .I3iiqs) i9q emm 8. ci cIumion owl sill lo ib139 ioI snuiiuv b91ucniic9 r1T .uiiquD 19q 29fflfl)

.(noiiudilicib !scrnon 9(10 9(11 ioI Q.Q nurh 19(1161)

.1born siidiliups slqiflum & lo sviiioqqiJa 916 ai1uei 9e9111 'sw s ru

9D11f31113V '(liD-CCO1D 911110 o\0O! nsrli siom e9isnimul9 uiidiliup9 owl niwo11A

fliflifi1fl91 9th moil b91&rniie9 (t)1 9111 '(19i6nuiio1nU .bniu1qxs d of

9Dflfiu1I5V IIDIJIfl 001 c9mif OX nsi1i 9iOffl 11ii Ci 910(11 ;O isvo hue ci eDflf5ii13V

Page 43: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

fl9v9 wolifi 9W (191-lW .l9bom noiaiD9b in9bnsq9bni (16 ifiiw 9ldiisqmoD 9d ol 1DrIiiib 9viI rijiw fl9V9 ilid l9rliluI a!hl nJ3i1riv IBubia9i 91-li sF1di1iup9 9lom

9)fl6iI6V 9111 29m11 OC 19V0 flui ai 9DfI6i16V fl1flU3ffl91 9(11 erioifljdhiib 91-li noiiudiiiib riv rliiW .l9bom ifl9bn9q9brli 91-li 'd b9iDib9lq

.19b01-n in9brlsq9bni 9r11 lo 9D(lfifl6V 9(11 9mui f i 9Df1ISFISV rIinififfl91

as 119w as) asnsiisv niwo11s Isbom si1diliup9 owi sth b9ismuia9 oals 9W ioI ai!iiai 91-IT .b9isrniia9 ni9d arioiludiiiaib owl 91-li aaois 1911kb ol (arissmu

rigid rio olni b9quo ai9 sisb erli woI4 . 9ldsT flu oals 9113 noiismzia9 eirli risiisv wol ns9m wol 9fl0 bns noihjdiilaib 9DflSIISV rfiri rism 9Dnfiflsv wol ,nsm wo! 9(11 10 9DflSflSv 9(11 fl9V9 ,l9v9woH .noiiudhieib

.nbIsm noiab9b ln9bn9q9blli cliiw sldiisqmoDni ai noiiudhiaib

9vijD919 ns ion ai £ildiliup9 9lqiilum niwo1ls isrlf 9V9il9d 9W .l1s19v0 b9vl9edo (Ii 9Df16116V 'iiD-20D lo iriiioms r1irl 9(11 filnifi1qx9 lo borli9m

-aaOlD 9(11 lo 116 SiSrliffiuI9 bluoD 9W 91-fl91iX9 91-li (11 16(11 9L111 ai II .291131 9mm 161-li arioiiudiiiaib lo l9dmlJn 9161 ¶(IIrI9DIIIIJ2 S fl1ffIU226 'd snsrisv '(iiD

l9bom S isrli aiaiia sith wo hd ,moiI nwsib 9113 291131 mm ndiu 9W. 16(11 9DflSfl6V 9(11 29(111 OC 9)f161113V ill(1ififfl9i £ 2611 J3hdilhJp9 9V11 (111w

di 10 flOiiuJifli 911T .iri9bnsq9bni 916 arlOiaiD9b 91911W 92&) 91-ft 111 998 bluow i-iliw 9Dnsrlfiv \(iiD-aaoD ciiñ mBIqx9 116D 9W i&li ,1el9bom Sildiliuip9 9IqifIum

9ldiisqrcIoDrIi 21-11992 91LJJDLnI2 I6IJIDS 119(11 lud is1h '(19iua ai ano1iDs19ini .sisb 91-11 (111w

1i \o mio1 U io -- tm M alc1nT

91JJ3V '(l9Viifil91 1199d 9V6r1 J9bOm 9(11 b99brli bru ilijasi auOiv9lq sifT '(IlEnul nouiD9a eir.tT .al6jJbivibni 2201DB flOiiDEl9irzi 9cft lo mio1 9(11 iiod

SW lfi19fl9 ru .91-fluiD ru af1OiiD619ini svuiiaoq 91-li lo amiol sldieeoq asaasibbs 01 aniuJisi () %29161 I aslis (I) :flOuiDl5iSifli lo 2(11101 9Idiaaoq IIJOI 91-uimfixs 111w

ha bnirfsd asiios(1i srIT .'Øi1idsi lsinsisq (t) bna niloor1,a (C) 29thviiD15 1ss1 ei (1o9th 9161 129118 silT Jyuswio1idisiJa (!1Ia1 9113 21D91I9 sasrhl lo

ioI isbiuirl ii 29)161-n :11 9(flu1D iii 29S8fl9 iodiiin '(ifi Ii 113(11 2'(62 ii btlfi '(109111

lS9I 01 eniu19i silT .mm 91001 in 111w I oa sm iesiis 01 sDiloq 91-ft

as>lsm ii (191-li e9ee9nieud moil al,isia iodr1isn '(01 Ii isdi 8'(62 '(109(11 29iiiV1iD15

01 \(19)h1l 9101-fl 9d 11kw I oa boor1iodr(isri cn iii dot a bnil ol 9m ioI 19b16f1 ii

Page 44: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

l9blfirl ii Airn elf3nimilD ifr1i ie '(109111 rIoothe silT .I6nimhD i smosd rijiw bnE 9vuDubo1q a9I 2LoodDe 9)113m 2fif3 921i13)9d noiiiDub9 siiups ol

ins16q-s1ni2 c1T .IsnimiID t smosd 01 '(I9AiI siom ms I nuIoor1D 291 '(Iimfil biovc3 01 '(19)111 910111 9113 alsnimm isril 2'( '(109(11 '(11m131

ol '(19)liI siom 9113 2i119113q iiiorliiw bsail3I rIslbIirID 113111 bnc$ '(ii1idianoqes1 .2I13nimnD 9fflOD9d

291131 smn 10 9)n6ilSv r1id 9111 bnirfscl 2911 emeLrIsrlD9m iuol 929111 lo '(tIE II

9w sno 291131 smi1 r1iu1 svlsedo ol bsqxs ion bhiow 9W n9rIi %a9i1D eo1s sldfiT ni bsworia 9W es ,l9vswoH

. ii2il9iDi3lsrb sorft iol b9lIoIinoD svl3rl

lo inuomf3 9161 s list 11i12 2DiiailsiIsrb nfithu us iol th11o11no woI 9(11 113111 21 2iI1J291 ILJO lo nOiiEielqlsini 9(10 11il2 .9(11ID nsthu bsnis1qxsrn

2SIdI3imV suli 9111 lo 29nJ2139m '(2i011 !13IJJDE 916 291d6i16V 929(11 lo 291IJ269m 9111 9IdEi1BV 1131JiD6 9111 lo 2911J2S9ffl 9II3liJDDS 910(11 1)1311 9W Ii JEIfI 1)116

929111 9flifflEX9-91 Iliw 9W oa .ll3sqqi32ib bluow 9)11611EV bsnisfqxsnu smri bsrisado ol bsiBtsl '(1in6)1hn12 9113 '(1113111)6 '(9(11 (19(1W briE esldsnsv

iol sd 01 svsrl bliiow 919111 10119 in9m9lLJas9m rburn won Ias 111w 9W esi61 .9)flSiThV '(ii)-8201) 9111 nislqxs '(IIfiJJb6 01 2meInl3rbsm 929(11

() 29i61 1291113 (1) lo a)1121191D13113dD n13dlu sill iol bn 29ITI11D 21J0fl92 101

sw th1oc1sauod bsbssrl-slBmsI () bns ciiIooriDa (C) 2si131 irlsm'(oIqffisrIu eflOiiSISllO) lEnOiiibrlOD 1)1113 IErioiiibnoDnu sdi rilod bsriinnisisb svsrl

JYI4 bn 8I OWI iol) 29mi1D 2JJ01192 bns aDLl2ilsbElErlD sasrfi nsswisd 9111 rliod 1Ii229191 '(d bnuol 9Th anoiisISno) lf3rloiilbnoD 9rIT .(siEb iDniDslq

2Dii2ilStThlBfb b 1o1?9v S 110 2Dii2i1919616119 1113(1111 9(11 brie 291131 9fflilD

-non irIs)19q bits asirrimub 1Eno191 mol r1iwo1 noifsliiqoq noiisluqoq) .(9lirlw

bsisl9noD \(l9viiIaoq 21 29iS1 129116 rnein6rb9m flOiiDSlSifli lsiin9iOq 12111 sriT s)iloq 92JJ6)9d 2111DD0 aqSIll9q rbidw ,eiDniDslq DYT'I 2201)13 smm 1111w

111 291ii) 22ODA .2139l6 9161 911111) t1ir1 (ii 910(11 29Y11J0291 1i91{1 911311119Dfl0)

116111 2291 nislqxs 1113) 29161 1291113 113111 21169ffl rbirlw \°8- ai noilsisnoD 9111 8f

niv6d qu brI9 bns 19)fflo 9DiIoq 91001 911ff i61 9miI) 19difl tliiw 9iiinummo) i %i)131 n1 nm ii (ai&ibni s1& 1sii& bn6 9mrl) n99w19d noil6I9llo) 9viiieoq 6 e6) eiti iesim isrfid

iiD-o1) 9113n1m119 bluow diffw) etEubivibol eeotm m193 noii)6lsini 9vdfi9n CI 919(11 113111

.(9Dnfiimv 1II11 9i6d19x9 ion 'I9i9I qmo 9)06i113V

Page 45: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

flOiifil9floD i9fl01i 91IT .e9ii 9mi1D ni noii6iisv b9vls2do 9111 lo o\01

'1rio i n0111519n0D ir1i md ni ai astii 9milD bn6 9iS1 i9116 n99w19d

.e9mi1D lo \°4 116111 291 nini61qx9 9113 je91m 16111 e1169f11 1lii riDiriw 0\°8t-.

9111 9Dub9l rbirlw noii11snoD I6illsq 9111 'cf b9iloqqua 916 211u291 sasril r \1r1o \f3lq i9nfi 16111 sbuIDnoD ieim sW .Itfib Ot 9111 lo i9woq vloi6nfiIqxs

.9D116IISV 9m1'ID 'iiD-aaO1D ninis1qx9 fli 9101 16r1i1Em

bcm siiiD aeoi 616b rioibivnoD oaI6 iud fiisb iamB '1no ion b9riiEido 9W bnl3 b9iDivnoD f1i9d lo boorlil9>1iI 9111 n99w19d noiisl9noD on ei 919111 flifi6

er wo iol) cloiifiI9noD o\°C 1no eworla sisb fIOiiDiVflOD 9rlT lo a9161

9a9111 91i1IW 291i 9mhD bn8 a9161 nOiiDivfloD fl99Wi9d (91qma aIJII lii a9iiiD

111 fl0ii9f10D jISIlI 1e91Je ob vi•ii b99bni 9IqmI5a lIfima £ no b9asd Sm ailiJeSl

.noirmlsirli IfiiDoa Sviiiaoq io rnairnsrbsm 9isbibn13D 13 ion oels al ailuoD 9111

noiiBI9lloD 9riT .eSiiiD aeois 9mn rfiiw. b9il5lSlloD \(1no1ia oels ai nu1oo11D2

bus Owl ui \°- ai a9ii SmilD auoiisa illiw esisi noii6ub61 Ioorba r1ir1 lo

.sviiiaoq ai (lOiiB!9TIOD 9(11 *ioY WSTII ui eiDrliDslq O1DB '1bbO ni \°8I- \{iiD) &)iHqu11om9b no cioiiibno 16111 ano!is!9noD 16 AooI 9W nsrlW

1f3nOi91 bn (siirlw-non 1n919q bus riiwoi noiisluqoq noiis1iiqoq Of ni o\°- 01 elIsi SmhD bns 3rliloolte n99w19d (IoiiSI9flOD 9111 esimaiijb

9111 i niI00r1De L3r11 idijob au s>Ism aflOiiS!9T103 >169W 929f1T ni o\0 bns .e91131 9mrlD nivnb mairl13rbsm

lo 9(1131 SIlT .a9iB1 smh ciliw bSisI9noD 910111 916 asisi in9m'(oiqrrI9nU

Ol ru aSrilD aaoia o\°EC bn6 (ai3iliaib DYVI aaoi) \°O (I99Wi9d ci noiifiLsnoD

Isnoiiibno io .anoiisISnoD I6noilibnoDnu iol asisi2 bsiinU sf11 ui Ci nOiiBl9flOD tDniDslq DYI4 9(11 bnB o\0 C! noiifiI9llOD 8k 9(11 af10iiS19flOD

11IJSITISI nolisisno) lfinoiiibnoD s SSC 9W ob Bifib O2L 9(11 ioI '1nO .9vii6srI .o\0O iE 91d6S1e

CUOI19C bus ablorlseuorl bsbaerl 9161T191 fl99Wi9d noilsisnoD 9111 s11sniI 91ff .aiDni)Slq DYM CCO1DS o\0 bn8 8Ql ui o\0i OWt ni o\0 C! C9fflflD

\°Ol- bcm °C 10\°EC 916 ainsiDilIsoD flOttfilSfloD lfinoiiibnoD n!bn0qe9floD bus 9IdfiSiC 9113 anOiiBlSnOD lBflOiiibflOD 9(11 elirlW .(aiDniDSlq DYVI aaOlDB)

1oivfid9d IsnimilD rlliw b9isI9noD Ci 91131D1J11C '1im1 16(11 idiiob on ai 919111

Page 46: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

mm 10 rI13imv 9111 lo AIud 9111 n1flhJ31qx9 moil 11 1Iii 9Th afIOiisl9lloD 9(11

291W!

s[drsia '[qib 1r1cno1qm9nu bnc b1ori9auou( b9b9ri-91ni cbod 9Dnie 91d6nfiV 9a9111 lo a9ismLta9 nio yaion won IaB won Iliw 9W anoiiuiI9noD

niviib rnainfi1hm 9r11 9d '(1IJ3uiD1 01 e91dI1&v 99r1i 101 9d ol 9Vf! bIiow rbrniq'(91 ff1011 flIr1i(19V9 ifirli 9d bhio aa9niaion 9nIT .enoii9ini !finimulD

9(11 01 eDi12n9iDWthcb DifrlOnOD9 9111 ni e9nfb (in6v9I9ni) ioiienii 01 10119 9IqilIJJm II .1diiiv iD9noD 9(11 o1 '(xolq '1no ai 9IdEufiv mo iisrii IDSI

:ir1i ns9m bhiow ii ,b1nI I9bom shdiliup9

() .(q-I)q=( r)mV 919(IW +1+XjdI

lo 91IJF9ffl 9u11 mo) iol b9llolirloD 9VMI 9W 9DflO lEft! i1fi9fl1 () floiiEIJp3 lo 19b10 9111 no ai 9DflBu1EV (1Iflififfl91 9r11 (rnairifinID9m noilDsl9jrn 1EiDo 9r11

bliiow rbirlw (9is1 mm 98W19VE nodEhlqoq 9111 19ihS9 s i q 91911W) (q-.t)q u)mV 9Dfli2 .IJJDDO ion bib enoiiDsi9lni IEiDoa Ii 9DfliSilfiV 9(11 sd

Iliw 9W rIDjJjw bn& hEnna ai won)1 sw cbinlw T'I\f b isbio 9(11 no ai (r)mV (i9ihE9 bib w a) 91OfIi

1OT19 insm9luassm insbn9q9brn moa ai ciw S ion +-S svl9ado èW niiworn! ni bsie9lsini 916 9W ,11011)El9ini IBi)Oa lo a9lUaB9ffl 1110 lo rF)69 ioI 61d91I 9lqmi2 .noibEl9ini 9is91B 91111 9111 01 ai 9111e69m mo 9aob wo(1

:16(11 au aIlsi O(1u)16V i&11 niw brie

(&) 5I\(5I-1) =()1EV\()16V

I bn f199Wi9d ifl9DiII9OD noiiEl9lloD 9(1! lo 91ELJ 9111 ai 5I 91911W

mm brifi eblorl9auori b9bfisrI 916ffl91 fl99Wi9d noiisI9noD hasnoiiibnoD 911T

ØiD-aaoT) 9(11 rnslqx9 01 9IdsnEv lf5iDoa airli io1 .(OL=51) 8l ru 0\°€C 2i a9161

1oI .8 9d ieum (1)isV\(1iV 1snie 01 9alOn lo oil wi 9111 9DnEnSV 9c1 teum 0i1131 9111 bnE \° i i1ISiDiII9oD nOiJfiI9TIO) 9111 OWt ni in9m'o1qmsnu

.(O?I) I9qoT bn6 rIqiuM ni bu ih ol mtimi ei 'oIoboth9m irfT rIi?1flhrIi 1() \fW $1I3ifl9VflO) 'Iqmi lud iIu91 w1n I: '(6w '(n6 (II ion i (€.) noilfWp9 1D61 nI

.ifl9iDiII90) noii6isTloD rIi i u odfi

Page 47: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

9i91fi 10 l9born i9thi9 Ii isrlI u lisi a9Idfiulsv owl 929r!T .001 ivo lo 2911J2691T1 IIJO 119th ,9D11Ei1SV 9151 9mri o AIud 9(11 2nisIqx9 2rlo!IDSISI11I

b9iEl9noD hooq (19m91ix9 9d ieiim em9ldolq lEiDoC 'io enoiiibnoD imonos 1finicr1i191q ii1i 19V9W0H .e9ldsilsv 929th lo 291U259ffl il113V9191 9111 iliiw

iom rkwm ci ii aicix9 tIIeinSrb9rfl 9lqrnie s Ii isrii i29ue c9ob n9biv9 iom 9r11 nisrii cb1odseuori b9bs9ri-915m91 1dsimv LsiDoe sill 01 bi1i

.in9m(o1qm9ruJ s1dsrisv is*ism iodsl b1sw1o1lriisiia

\(iiD-caolD 9iI 9(11 nii13nimi19 bno'(sd insm9mJp91 bnoDse s ci sisrlT ieiirn meinisrbm airiT .sldsislsq 11i3Diflqm9 9d 01 maIfISrb9m s iol 9Df1SiThv

9th e1sbom svitsisini sasuii lo us nI .smi d bsau& sd bns 92USD iliod b9i291 9d bluoD noibsisini Cull 9IqiDnnq ni 91u1W .Isub sd iaurn 'iiIsausD

niDnivnoD briil ol sldsrw nssd mI oc svri sw es1dnsv Isinsmuiiani fli2LJ ir1i 1291 01 9ffiulD 101 iswoq \(lolsnsIqxs irI9iDiIIJic riliw eirisminierii

.'(19i&upsbfi noiisDilqmi

noiaubnoD .'

9ITIIID iDniDsIq-aaolD bns (iiD-e2o1D smsliXs 9(11 bsriimsxesi esrl 9qsq airiT

919(1W Isbom s ilhiw sldxisqmoDni 11siinsaa 2i ii isdi brwol IDJIS 9DflSflSV ISDOC lo aI9bom owl niO .irl9brz9q9bni 915 elIoqolism S (Ii anoiaiDsb 'ain9s

to 9DflSilSV bsvlsedo 9(11 nibnsia19brw iol )hOW9ffIShI S 9bivOlq arlOliDSl9irIi

s rliiw cu sbivolq alsbom sasrli 11nsiioqmi sioM .29151 9fflflD lo 9Dfl9291 9th rrioil 290D xsbni aiciT .anoiiDslsini ISIDOC lo xsbni Isiuisn

c'iodriisn iisili oh brioqasi esvlsemscfi ion ob isdi einss 10 %einss "bxi1 .9mm Ixiwol hiar19qo1q

lo csismiie9 %bfisianI .'(IlElSiiI n91s1 sd ton bluosIe aifi9s bsxil lo Isbom eirlT

lo 99189b 9111 lo 91U259m S CS nsIsi sd bl,jorfa ainss bsxil lo lsdmUfi sf11

i11mc 10 iis1 moll 9lrlOD bluJoD noiiDslsini 1sis91 10 19229J .flOiiDBISifIi

9r111fl1919b 'liD91ib aisbom 9111 (Ii airi9s bsxil lo isdmuri sill bns aquio ISIDOC

flOliDSlSifli lo irxuoms sf11 1bsoid. sioM .quo ISbOC S lo 9Si2 9S19VS SIft

bsxil A .alujbivibni CCOIDS nOiisDinummoD lo 9259 9(11 ff1011 9ITIOD bhioD

1odrfi9n aid isdw sse ion a9ob orfw in9s ns as bsisiqisini 9d iauij (IS) inss .niob ci

Page 48: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

TUIGt9CITOU2 UJfI2f pG OL fl1r!L6 L62GLCJJ

bLGAj!u 2OCj 2LaCg1L62 Jji6 q6rGLwU9pOu O JJ16 OLW2 0j cp66 OCT!iucjnqG !uoLw91iou' cLoMqiu o 6RJ uq qGriciiou oflUqoflpGqJ? fG OUU2 2ocj !uGLcf!o1J2 C9u f9J<G 9L6 A9LGq uq UJ9?ug onuq JffJ6 COUCI11!AG 6Aq6ucG OL 9u) b9L1crrJ9L uJGcp9u2wMG JOOj.cGq OL W6CJJ9U!2W2 jJLO1TJJ MIJ!CIJ JJ62G 20C!91 !UIGL9Ct!0U2 occrn.LGq

COCG2 9CLO2 uqttqn92bLG2GucG O 2LOU gUJiJi62 !U646LG2 M!tJJ fJ16 fL9U2UJT22TOU O CL!W!1J9j

9WOIJ CLTIJJIU9I2 9L6 TJ6L MJJGU fJJGL6 91$ UO !UfC 9UJTJ? nuT ..LPbLGJrwru9LX' MG TIJGLbLGf JJ6W fO UJG9U 1JJ91 1PG 9AGL96 20c19J !U16L9C0U2

M1JJ WOLG 6W9JG 69G pOfl2GJJOJq2 MI4IG 1JJ626 L62flJJ2 91$ P!IJJXCLTIJJG2 6UGL9JJ?' OL bGA J9LC6U) uq OL 9f1O p6ffl MGL6 orruq OL CT!62

VCLO c!G2' MG onuq TGL JGAG!2 o 2oc!91 !u6Lgc!ou2 (tot 2640(T2CLO22 CT4UJG2' MG onuq fJJ9 XOf1U6L CL!WG JJ9AG UJOL6 OC9j !UJ6L&C!OU2

PaI9X' 62flJJ96q cJTdrrG 2TG M92 gbbLoxmrnlsjA jooJ9LCGIJ) M6L6 OAGL 5f3f3 Tu W02f O Orlt Gef!W9f10U2 LOL LOpp6L? 9229flJ uqoriuq ot L9b6 9uq 9L20U 1P6 9GL96 2O9J &orlb 2t62 OL njo uqL9U6 j o 2 mrrLqGL !unj9LjA JOM JGAGj2 o ocj Lonb e!sG M61$219?6q C0U219U1 OL G9CJJ CLIUJ6 JjJ6 GfIUJ9162 OL 9A6L96 2CT9j LofTb rs

9cLo c4UJ6' p111 jJ9 9CL2 9f9 29Wb162' qJG LOf1JJ JGAGJ O !Uf6L9Cf0U2OflL Tuq6x 2poMq p9l fJJ6L6 ! 9 M1q6 L9U6 !U fjJG 6L6G O TU16L9CTOU2

GLG UJfl2 G COA9LT9UC6 9CL022 9GU2

L9ou96q 92 1JJ6 0f11C0W6 O ruq6b6uq6u 62OU2 o 6U96 !u CL!UJG --TU16L9Cf!0U !' CLTUJ!U9J p6p9AoL jJJ6 CLO22-CiX A9L9UC6 2 1(T2 100 P!P io p

!2 2JJOMU pA Op26LA9pJ6 cJJ9L9qGL2C2)' MG onuq i t9L6 YuJor1u o 2ocT91OL g MiqG qA6L2A U nuq6LjATu CIJ9L9CIGLJ2IJC2 9CL022 (6iu WOLE IJJYU

flu6q 9I62 9CL022 cT!G2 9uq CLO22 bLGciuq iu 4GM AL< EAGTJ noMuMG 9bbflGq fpT2 uqGx O 2OC9 !UIGL9CPOU2 10 CL!WTII9J pGJJ9AJOL !' lpG

Page 49: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

.9Dfl91919M

iii tuiD ti'th woi\J (18Qf) i9niifiD .51 bnfi .0 19rb1A .eei1 '{iiaivis1U 916Y :n9vsH W9VI .csit1

"cfDso1qqA Dimono3 nA :in9mu1inuq bnfi 9milD" (8I) .e .D XI-f : oo3 tiftoq \c !fiDoJ 91IT :riiwoiO bris noiiudhiejU 9moDnI noiisnibH" (1QQI) .51 ,uodsn9H

qiq niAiow 5138W "noiiD9nnoD ei51 9mhJ !ubivibnI lo noiismija3" (W1) n9rIoD •j bn .A ni9iemu18

:O ooi tu m.i imiiD 1riixo 'eb1oD951 tesnA moil I6noian9mib ic1i 9th nisi1firnIon951" (I) riis11h2) .0 bnl3 .M ,moeni8

£C1-8t 1 :' riithc1oic eS.uth "j9bom iiov Iim&1 1o eb113 9rfT :q uoY '(ImqmoD 9dT" (1Qt) is)I .J bna .A

.i9qsq ru)how 5138W "arFJuoY b9invbaiU no boochodr1i914 bns -1.4W iq1 nbhoW brin5l "9viuJe 9j6mr11 noeh bn651" (SWI) . nblifiriD

oci-'oror ejD9II3 boorhodrii9W bns eott9r13 lo vio9r1T Dim9biq3 9rIT" (IQQt) .1 sniD

\o iio imh "nh69dblidD 9n99T bn iuO niqqoiU no .Ot-I : ooioa booriil9Aii murnixsM" (I) riidu5l .8 .0 bni .1.4 biiEJ I .A l9ieqm9U 1 o T "mrliho1A M3 srli fiiv 6i6U 9i9IqmoDrII moil

.8C-1 :QC (8 e9h2) t.oa iir lo noiieu A :jn9mrieiriuq 1iiqiiD lo iD9II3 tn9TI9i9U 9riT" (Qt) .1 rbihri3

SIE'-WC :à w'ws1 oo3 rth ".f1i9U bn 9IiJ .anoitEDiIqqA ci! bnB 'iosr1T vii!iddoiq oi noibuboitnI nA (81) .W i11&I

.I(9liW c'floI :)hoY W914 "arFtuoY b9Eiri6vbBeiU lo tr19rrPoIqm3 9rli bnn 9rnhj" (fQt) .51 r1Ern99i1

.8C i9qs nbhoW 5138W "Ci9*ISM iodsJ briE noitsrnioInI no aae3 owT" (QI) .J ..3 ia1D

.nortfirl9eaiU oSDifiD 10 'Ciiai9vinU :*ioY wsW .ciD )r%%th i3 tm kQ tVT (1I) .1 ,adoD

.9elJoH mobnE5l vo*ism n99wi9d qirlánoiisl9i 9rfi nOH (O8Qt) 119n2 .J . brii .51 nr1Erni9bniX . ototo mM \o iurno "e*i0wi9n IEiDOC briE abl9iI mobni i iiM tiu i tiQ oi\1 (QT) .51 ,snsJ

'iiei9v1nU bivmH :9bhdmsD .ii ttnk1 ihiD .b9riqBio9mim "9rnhD no 9DiIoq lo 1)9113 911T" (1I) .2 ,fliv9j

o2 niA992 in9SI ci riWH (CQI) sru1aiV .51 bnfi i91i91r12 .A .M.)1 rfqiuM .L-O! :C8 moo3 mI\ "rfiwoiD oi '(licoD

'(iosdT :b9i9bienoD9Sl e9&W 'çnsbill3" (OL) !9qoT .51 bns MX '(riqiuM tm iolT ii .ab3 rfoeI9rIaiI briE aeisW ni ",9n9b1v3 briE

.riEIIirnD$M :riobnoj .thmomiiU \p ii :ejiEq a hi I a U oIU I miiioI-1'.1 ii (C8.t) .A ,i919i9uQ

.i9i19dD138 hiioq \o hiwno "rnnD lo eni9ti6 briE eieomeO IEiDo2" (tQI) .51 ,ii2 : oi'o3

8t

Page 50: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

!W0U ¶JU 2C1J11216LM!jOU' 1 5 uq ic HGLLU2fG!U (To) cu uitn I4GM JOLfC

ycq6UJc J)L6MP!6' H (J) Ecouo 4GM oqc:

ECOUOUJIC jJflcf19fiOU',, WCt O%UflflC f: j-5j2CJJGTuI<UJ9u' F v uq VU Mooqoq (J) j-oIgu6q cicgj ¶JIJq

Page 51: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

pA }3flLC11 0 IJJC CCUI12fl2C2 tciou2 (oLrp 2°(P CcU1Lr Mct) qcucq

b0bbob !(J CUII2 01

C!IA bobntøou qcjucq pA BflLGR o fP CCUfl2 Cb2a jôo CC112(12 01

btobtiA 01 SUOIpCLbnpjic Pfl!JcJ!U WOLOL AflCJC 01 9JLCL91J1 bcI2oUqM!fJ OL miqJon scwb 10 CI3fl qcjpu ponc jçcbotynA tiqn cx. wraon pnunu cx. rcwb to FBi flIto.w cuu

DthIgcbotr L'IAC b°I!

\1flO JJJC flJCJ OL J1tCWbfCq *pcij 01 WOIOL AW!C1C FBI flII1IOLW CUUJCDcbf

0 (JIC bLObCLtA 0[ miorpcr I�CbO142 I4AC bOITCCJJJC fUJJft4fIJ ZY!U 11!U JcqiU OL LIqIU MA FBI flW10111J C!JIJJC

DCbI1PGJ E°'-f kIAC bOIICC

JJJC nUfMflJ CZJU.A 01 21LU1LC 10 COUIWfl 1J0 0L FBI flU!IOLW CIMDcbr

bnboec 01 tu11icgu CACLC OL t9As(cq poqijA !U1nL 1�Cb0LL2 J4AC bOI!CCU I'4I 9UJC pAoUC bG120U nbOU 9IJOWCL lOt iC FBI flUIIOLW CUWC

01 IOLCC DGIWCLC cnioqA cx. coui.oj 01 bcou pA 1oCC oupLct t�cbo w&c boI!cCjp wjau OL søtwbi to WJCC su?4p!IJ 01 AJI1G IWW tC FBI IIIJ!IOUJJ CWIJC

Dthrpct !A1jJ cnqc 2tWfOLA ubc icbow: Itkc boj!ccjyc cmiJq JCIJOMJCqC 01 ICW9IC totcp!A uq S1U1 FBI flU!10LW CULU

UJ1U2JflIUCt pA ucjicucc uq LIjIC LfI!1! Dcbf01 OUC jJfWU pcxu pA uoqJci. XCJflC2 j�cbO& IIAC bOJiCCflCI 1CUU!PQE .LPC M!jJJJIJ miq U0tJ-IJCj!GU1 pJJU FBI flU!1OUfl CU.UJ

bicciucI q'z 10 1ÔÔ3UOf 1njiA cowbsizpjc cw crO VII '1AClot cwbjc jncCuic qixxy HCIJcc I4AC qi 91-Cq cxqnqc 1JJOC L1 I CUIIJC2 j3S1 9LC IJOf 1CI0U!'pnLjLA iccuA uq nro IPCIJ jpc j,ij bicciuqUqflqC WIILqCL1 J2bC LOppCLA LOppcI)' 221nf 1' jybrflIJILOLW CUWC j{CbOL(1U btoisur b't J OLICU2C2 J�Cb0I42 JIAC b0I!

fl1 JJJC 2(1111 01 b-f I OLICU2C2 qqJq flLJCL (C ED!12 FBI flIJIIOLWDCL!11!i!0U 0DLCG

bbGuqJ1: JJL!JpJG DGt!U!!oU

Page 52: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

%ct% bo1 uou- rnsn at wjnjj iiwc ciA JM cupLccwGut occt bobnjnou

bobrqwoucrL% bc jo bLObCLA txc cojjc'cfcq qnuu 4j2C Ac RnIcn at wccun

occnbt tonztut% O1Itt% OMIJCL OcCflb!Cq porI2rn nwr occnbcq p0fl2!U fI1JI2 9flLfl O C CCU(1

pOhI boh% ctcb%%ot1z 9fl1fl O JJC CCIJ(12

1MW%cu onztot cwsJc poncpoqcL o 2bon2c bi.ccuç BflWfl at wCCUfl2

rPo. DCbUWGU( GWWOUui C'!J! IoI. toLcc nucwbo?wcui L(C 9flLCfl O f'pOL

1M•t 0% %%t0L )cI%.%ttO%fl 0h% CCLI2( O b0btI1!0U

)cw.z zqoobMW VS 0%. W0%.

__________ CCLJ2fI2 O b0bfl!t0UDGUU!flOU OflLCG

Page 53: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

0 . JI I I

0 0ci

J6

or)—Iu2t oqGJ oi)_couq y4oq6(

IflLG j: Hit) fIfnG ni 1G IMO jf4O6J?

Page 54: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

qTJO

U

o G

LiO

n2

CL!

UJ6

2 bG

I.

cbiç

r o6

: iw

bj

qepu

q 9

fy

C1p

62

>

2OO

O

bGob

1G

pj

qi

bbci

qix

OL

()11

LCI,?

¶J

IJq

GL!

Ol1

2 C

L!W

bG

L

Cb!

P

'4

(4

4.

0)

/ i-

00

01

©

4 , .

nj

0000

0000

0000

00

0 0 30

40

1

QO

C., >'

80

100

130

CLO

C

!O

CL

!WG

10

E!n

LG

3:

G

UO

I1

CL

!WG

L

T

�O

fi

D'

GLI

OI1

C

L!W

L

GL

C

0b!f

0

JO

30 r

40

0000

0

'1

0 00

-4...

0

0 0

0 0

0 —

-

4.

0)

/ 1.

- 00

0/

0

(4

4.

0)

1-

00

0000

0000

0000

000

I i

i 1_

J '

• '

CL

Ofl

C

!O

CL

!G

fføj

G

Ig

E!n

u 5:

G

L!0

fI

CL

!m62

bG

L

CJb

' J2

fl

D

gr

Page 55: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

p'jj

LoIic

6 G

bLtm

6u1

266

ybbG

uqrx

O

L

q9f

2Ofl

LC

G2

¶HJ

0 3 4 Q

C,

10 c

13

14

IQ

jg

30

JAA

C

LL

GC

!UC

t C

L!W

G

ffJf

C

E'"

:

GL!

Ofl

C''-

' L

GL

C

b!P1

' T

3 J4

6M

AO

LJ(

D

P

2CL

1Ofl

C

L!W

G

KG

L

Cb!

J C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

(4

I-

. (4

()

I

I

Page 56: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

CLTWG qs fljpUJ6!A COW62 [LOW 1JJ6 DJ flU![OLUJ C4WG J�6bOI3LP6 [01. 1J112 tTL6 COUJ6 [LOW .LpjG 5T

(•J81)A = rox+ jç-drniL6q:

(1) 6rwr6q LOW CLO2-C!1A JO qr'

0 100 500 200 400 OO eoo .OO 800 800

EInLG 2 Wt) E21WSf6 LOW CL022 CIIA D1' J82

.1 0Aru.q6L' JçlbG

yg njr fl(1LpJ0

0 jopp6l.A

LLOW i82L(t) G2rIw9fGq

0vrlo ji6

Page 57: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

J9uJpq9=OL'IAC q3r9'JLOUJ

flu) 6iw9fGq

JflJ fTUTjOLW CLTUJ6 LGbOL12,

q rqpwsi&jX COUJG2 pow ji,xc bLGcru qi iiq flJG(i) iuj6e 9L6 LOW JpJ 5T

(•J8i)A =gx +j' g-dnLGq:

r) G2pwgjGq LLOW CLO?-CiO ia qsr' jswpq=o0 20 J00 120 500 520 300 320 tOO 420 200 220 eoo e20 OO

E1ffLG : Qr) E2lWfG2 LOW VAC uq ia cL022-C!,A D

Page 58: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

LOW jpjG21pxJ6q'JUJpq !C!1A qs19'LOW CLO2-

Wit) G2(UJVG

CL!wG qi njJJUJg6JA cow pow rp I:8I c'.w gGhoLI2..LP6 qgg OL W2 Tf1L6 COUJ6 LOUJ JpJG 5çt uq j9JjG f L62b6C1!A6JA

(OJ)A = - Fr2o' g-drniLGq:

Juipqs=o' ow j9JG) 61W91Gq LOIIJ CLO-C!lAJ22 qr

uq MJJGU juJpq !2 xGqHflL6 : (1) E21!WIG2' MGU JsuJpq9 62WG

0 .100 500 300 400 00 eoo 00 800 800 .1000

Page 59: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

62ruJ16qjwpq 12T2LOW fl•.) G2fU1Gq

CL!1I1G q9l COWG2 ILOW JJ6 EAI flUTOLW CL!W6 I�GboLf2B6 ) G2iUJ9lG2 COWG LOW J9JG

(I2)A =29X+ j' g-2drnILGq:

I11LG : ) Ef1WSI62 uq fG o cuut1J912

GLCGIJI96 O SLLG26G2 OL 1J16 CLIWG MpO LG (1UGL J

Page 60: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

pccnc rpc czO bobnjriou (rpc qcuouiJwuot) qoc uor cib1nLc LC rjrn o wiuA bcobjc A! LPC2 C!Pc2 CCp Aci.orc: 2mJb,c qcwcq fl c111c2> 3O1y bcob1c yqupc cirA miq MC2 BCP rnAc pip cuwc L1C2 IU 1x114

4

JJJG TV E!16 II!JJ6I uq L!AG fO11G CL!W6 C!!G 111 W6 fl••

Page 61: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

bGLCGU bob IJoJJ-1IJJ!G li,20 QT8 18� OR Ô3R IQc?

b01!GG bGl. c1b! Q?8 00J8 0008 01 I OOO

bL0bG1O 4ØZG bGL GUb!J I2 Q?8 LMY5Ô J't8 185301 180W

bGLCGUI OJIIJGL occnbuGq JJOfl2!IJ Q?.8 ?.V3 J34 ô5O J5fcj

jbGLCGU bGuou2 pGfoIi boAG1. Q J33 Jv 3Q4c QØ

pGJq iobGLG6U4 ponpoq '11P t6W016 ?8 JV1d 'I?3c QO

flIJ6WbIo)wGu LØ4G t2Q Q?8 .V0 O.. 3F 3JIGSLa COffGGe 7gObGL2OU OAGL BG If1 4 01. WOLG 4LWOLG AGaL2 2C00j 12ObGI.20U OAGL 1IJf1 01. Qg Qf 33O J

c1uLJ (LGvowq qnwwl) Qg j 0 1 38onjp (i.iouu qnww)) g j .*S

oI4p (.jornq qnwuA) g sox 0 I tosbob LOII4 LBG j4J-jQ Q28 132 -3J? 388 3QQ

jQ bobn1gEou Q J58?8 51J0 5Q50 3Q30

yL2ou bci. cubi �58 518E- 0 00?3 ? JOE-4

fflfO flJGj bGL cbitø ??8 0023 0 03Ô1 0048

rLcGu!G bci. cBbIpJ c ooo 0 .oJa

Rfl1.IøL!6 bi. cbø Q28 0J?Q 0 02X3 0080

yøn bi. cøb! c? oot 0 os oos

gOppGLiG2 bGL cbijv oos 0 oIô oos

guba bi. cøbi8 Qg 4433E-4 0 0O3 30EfflLGL2 bGI. cøb! Q?8 ÔXE 0 .LÔ2E 845ER

2GL!0fl L!WG bu. cubiu ox ooQl 3838 osos2EKIEDYIL(

fri YIU DGAIØHOU24uqgLq

J1pJG n: GJJ nJq nJqJLq DG1!0U1 CLO C! D' i22

1!flLC po1IiJ !U JIp1c 5-\orc: tCJU uq riuq&iq qGAi&(101J2 JLG iwG1J1iOLJ1ll? 2po/IJJ nuttciitcq uq pciJcc JLG uoi qILGCIIA COWLXJL&pIC 10

Page 62: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

LnLG JOt1U !" PLG 3-,jofc: cua iJq 2rJUqfl.q qCAifioLJ LC i1JfG1JfIOIJHA

bGLCGU bob uoU-ii!G Jo QJ JJQ OJa JQ?b011G6 bi. cub! IO QL 001Q 000Q OOQX 000Q

bLObGL4 8XG bi. c9b! IO QL QóJ 100 1 L800 à'f0MU6L OCGflb)Gq pOfl2!U QL 88 NO 30 138

,GA6e I1ObLCGUf bGI.2ou pG)Oa boaz QJ JJ O 3 J 44 Q3pGgq IObGLCGUl IJonGpoq '!tP L6WJG Q1 J1 V0 VO 'V0d

flU6WbEOAUJ6IJ L1JjG IO QL 1J FO 1O FQ

AGUL2 GOJJGG iOJ,G12002 OAGL G IAUP 4 OL WW.G QL 1'1 Q0WOL.G cpOO iO,GL2OIJ OAL ØG '4fP O ØØ JOO

ccuI.I (i.conøj qnww) i.x 0 i oton(p (irouøj qnwwA) go 0 J ttoj.joqp (LGowJJ qnww) �i OôJ 0 i toobob LOIa4p LSIG I&O QLX -0 50 151c

io bobniijiou QL J518Ô2 2J3J 8&S8?J 1ÔJ?Q

vnjo jpq bGL cøb,iv QL 00? 000 Ot 004Q

J'ØLCGU!G bci. cøbr, QL 01 JQ 000I 043 I 00?8

bGL cøbiii QJ OJ3 0015 0E8 o00

bi. cubiø QLX 001Q SXJE2 0L8 OOJQ

OGLG2 bGL cubiis Lx .ooI4 Fô?E2 oJQ 001ô

gibi bGL cvbiiu QL !E-t 0 00J JQôE-1

nLqGL2 bGL cøb, — QI Q8E-? 0 48QÔE-4 200E-?

G14OfI CL!WG bGL csbiø QJ 1J3 0023 J58Q OJQ.2EJIE2DViV

L4 WU ltlSx DGatfl0U

tii' IC: !J" iiiq JuqJLq DG I!Ou CLO C!1 D1' IO

nucipcq uq pcuc c uoqitccA cowtxiuipic to

Page 63: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

LnLC 2OMLJ III WPIG2 3-oj: C9U2 uq awuqq qc,rIou tC !uIcIU!oIrnJIA

bGLCGU bob 1JOIJ-AIpG iO O ?Q Ô° ÔÔ4â

IGAGI boobGLCGU bGLOU GJOM boA6L XO 80 ?S* I3°

ioooJJGLCGIJj MUJJ LGWØIG O 3J Qg Q34flhJGWbJO)W6IJ1 LGe 1000 XO IOQ 3 3& ?OILSØL2 COJJGG 1000bLOIJ2 OAGL 4 OL WOLG Ø 34 QQ JQWOLG )GØL 2cpoO iooobGLeOU OAGL 1iJJ j OL O Q?.P 3Q3 NQ1000 bobnI!oIJ XO IOWJQ 3SLX8 55JQ3 t2OctQ

yno jp bGL cøbj O 0N2 00c10 OJ ØØQ

raLcGu!G bGJ. cIb!tu .xo oJi 0031 JIX2 oIIIflLI8L!E bGL cubii o oo ooto 00ct2

b G8b!(1J XO OO4 00J0 OOJ OON

OppGLG2 bGL o oj .ooo oogvb b€i. cøbIlø o ooot 8ô.E2 0015 J3yJnLqGI2 bz cub!u O oOo o ooii ooo

2GLIOn2 CI4UJG2 bGL cb o oo O5IQ '502ô OQ2EKIE2DVILV

W I61 WI!" DGA1fl0UuqBLq

vwic ID: wq Juq1Lq DGA!!OU 14G1 AOL C!O D

2OM1J 92 flUMCIUG JJCUCC 9C IJOf qILGCIJA cowlxcuipjc to

Page 64: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

L1flLC2 pOMIJ 'Ii WPJC2-•oc: C91J2 wJq mJqq qciflou2m.c ncupoujjA

bi. Gb(1 8 OOO 0 4g 0002

V1110 flJGg bci. cvb! Q3J OOQJ 000Q Ot08 002?

FSLGGU!G2 hGi. cibvi Q3J O4f 0O?J Ô8 0J?fl1tLJULG bGL cøb!40 J OJQÔ 00L O33 008Q

bi. cøb!(f QJ 0O 0 003

KOPPGL!G2 bci. cubi Q3 I 005Q 0 02 003ô

gøb bGi. cøb!ju Q31 0002 0 0031 0004

Jrn.q6L2 bGL GøbI4J Q3 I 8Q3E-2 0 8�2E't Ô8E-2

2GL!Ofl GI4UJG2 bci. C8b1(II Q31 OX8 0088 38? 0302EI5IEDVIV

L4 V1''J !PU J1I DG4!OU(vuqVLq —

JPIG JJ iuq IuqLq D6A!It!OU CLO 4J DU' I2Q

poMU 92 flUMC!8jucq miq pcuc LC UOf qiLccA cowbpjcio

Page 65: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

rxoilioqmoU brn ruimV :A iIdiT 9DflEi16V () i=i

(t)I o.=.,c

(7r)I (t)I oo.=A

nimV (1) (1.r)q

ATAG 3IM1

o. r.o i.r 8.Ef El 1QQ E0.0 eioi 9m 8=4 8Q1

ro. o.o r.'E8 .40l 1QU 1=L'1

rio. .rr.o at.oc co.o 0=M 1JYM

0 0.O 0.01 100.0 1000.0 ibwM 8M 0 .0 0.01 0.01 100.0 1000.0

1=L4 .0QI 0 €.0 8.81 Q.l 0.O ôOO.0 €000.0

O=t4 JYL4 0 CC.0 l0.0 O0O.0 9q1$I

8=TI 0 1 1 't eoo.o €000.0

1=M 01 0 D.0 Q1 CXI S1 'coo.o p000.0

0=14 3YT4 €000. .0 J8C .1 O0.0 vI9ddo$j

8=T4 8Ql p000. t.0 1t C.EE L& 1.1 €00.0

1=14 0t 000. rC.0 QQ CE Q0l€ 110.0

. 0'=I4DYM 000. El.0 1.! 8.8 QS.1 8!00.0 i1us2A

8=14 e8Q1 1000. &t.0 C.1 .EC1 8i€1 C&0 00.0

1=L4 0W1 8000. £.0 e.l8 .1 00.0

0=4 JY14 €00. f.0 E E.t1 0.8 f0.0 i*Igiu8

8=T' 8Q1 €00. €.O .E€ £.l4 1.&J .f0.0

1=t4 800. p0.0 IXOI €S11 .1 €10.0

0=MDYt.4 l0. !1.0 C.E 8.E O.0

8=T.4 e8Q1

100. 0.0 E.N& .88c E.E 10.0 '1=VI 0Q1

ou. cf.r E.E801 0.lrI 0.C1l C.11 10.0

I 0=11 DYM

Page 66: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

b9lirliinoD noiJioqinoU brn rniimV :A 1diT fq "" ms '"'

() *ç r=(O1

()I &O.=

(O1

tOO.=.i

(t)1 O=(

9IqmE2 9)nII1SV (I)

(qr)q £i6cI 9I19

roo. ca.o c.or .c.c &i i 800.0 iI9rIi oluA 8=VI 8QI

100. QC1!' 8.ca! €C 800.0 I44 0I COO. !.O \'.OC I0.0

0=L4 DY14 1000. 1O 8.O1 &O.O O0O.Q noiA

8=M 8I e9IdthmV_l9rfiO_noifieogmo9U_bni_nzimV :fl 9LcliT

9Lqmse t)1 (t)1 (t)I 9IqmEa 1J1iU

niiu'F I o.=i oo.=.c o=c 9)nIilI.SV (4)(J ()

. (.1)

rIO. 00.0 .CtI- 0.8- 0.W tJ .0 a9Ism&I 10 or ,r=T,1 . 80.0 SQ1I1 1SCS C.0 Iootba rfaiH 9iMJbE1

8=1'I 081 8. .0 8.rea VdI .0 Ioocb2 cIiH

29JMTh1510 I=M OWl

9q l9dJmJrl itr!i unim 9iqrnsa d9 flu sftq& iq 9fflu1D lo i9dffluIfl evi flffluloD iaiiI 911T

cnm bsi1smion lo rithmv 9cIj 9vi anmLJioD rfifl9v9a bnfi bf109e 9fIT .bmup BiiqSD .aiDcuDslq 10 asiii aors (wol9d 11smio1 b9drne9b) aI9V91

ia rioiithiqoq1M 9mrrJ lo iiIicI&Joiq noiis3I1Jqoq=

:nmjjloj bnODs2

(iiiD 10 \ [t (I - 1'(iiD 9fflulD)] (l) 9D1Thi1V 91qm2

:nrnuloD rLtrI9V92

esijiD t 9iiiD lo fl

\ - iiD 9milD) } =.c) uiiiv 91q1r1f32

b9ilqcni ((t)1 bJonsb) noiiD6mini ff3Dol 10 irwom& 9th 9vi eclmu{oD riflul r1uoir1J biii-fi sifT

r1xi r!T .Jxsl sill ni b9diD9b i S 91911W a1svs! S nsvi iol 9DafiflSV bnJ3 asmsm ssdi '(d

Jfoibr15jrn IfiDoJ on i ssrIi ihirlw wI S lo Isvs! sclI asvi rimiJioD

Page 67: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

uq coJJ6u. (�) 2pTqA O LL62f LGcoLq2(cp9!rGu i�Y EOL ugTATqr11 CLTWG2 qg9 OIJ CL!UJ62-b6L-CL!U111J91 2IGUJ2 ILOW rnrfUJ1G1IJ12 qGLAGq LOW 26-LGboLfGq WG2flL6 qGecL!pGq !U 1JJ6 J9tJq LL1201J IUUJJ(6 ni,ALTmG2-b6L-CLWTUJ qgg 12 6LTAG LOW fMO 2011LC62 EOL 9 26LTOfl2 CL1W62 1JJ6 MIjTI6O

CL!W6T2' J'128ViflO 11J OOO O 5500 51W2 5OJ O2 0005

b6L=JOC4WGI2' J42f'LCGUA

.

OOO O� .V2 2T 'Q OJ 0001

b6L2C4WGI8' M2flnLJ9LK OOO2 058 OO 5 5O 0J8 000J

b6LJ.CL!W6r82' M282fiJ( 00058 0"f2 TO�

I2 J2 ON 0005

b6LCL!m6T82 WQ2gOppGLA 000N OJ JI'fl JJ1 JOYT

.

OQ 00002

bGL=JOCLJGTh82' I'128

O.OO O J5J2 JIY2 8O 0J5 OOOf

bGL=CLIW6J2' 14Q22

OOJ JT T822

.

J300 015 00JCLTmG bGL=J2' V1c?2CL! W62

26L10(12 OO5 JO� fJJ2 W5 3WT OJ 002

E1�IEDVLV

!)(FI)) (J)A9USUCG

Y0L(1t)

YOO)

YOs3L(L)

t(IL)JY* AJL!UCG

CL!mG LGLjpj : JJLIUCG Uq D6C0mb0c!0U C0U1L0JJ!U LOL

Page 68: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

J'1=QJJQ

(iiJ)ff0029 199 039 Q

(isi)

M�0MAC 0'002f 125 (1115

(s�.)JT i

M9ThTh�0 ff0032 0001

(ioi)112I

(oo3)•003

(ioc)111J

Th82' I4=920•OcN8 T3 9

(o)3'WQ

(oo)0N

(iwo)53I0

493TIQ 0002 5'OO JcfJ

(Y8)255 03 ()255

i.'i=oMAC (1011 Th2

(T2)239 i

MQ11ô�0 0.0O 191 J2

(Js2)1110 05

(Js2)JiJO

Th82' M92gOppGLA 0OO4� T5 O3

(ns)1220 O

(fl.3)J22O

M9JJ8Q (10009 0Th 0003I

(o)V8

(oor)005

(mct)

M�0MAC 1Y000't 00� (10008 (.)119M=9mT0 0•0O0 002 (10031

(vs)12 ci

(ooQ)002

(so)JF(?

T82' M928ffJb6 (10009 0T9 (10009

(ro)JJ

(oo)01J

(rs)J18

J4=9JT89 (100012 00Th 0'0003

(i&595

(ooo&0002 ()328

M=�0MAC 0000 009

.

(10002(•s'i)JM9T

T0 ci000J 00T (10005(o)

'V0 0(o)

V0

i2 M=928.qnLqGL ff0001 001 000

('ci)29

(oos)0T3

(civ)

14=931J8Q 00�8 TTh T12

(2m)12tY�

(ooJ2)0003

(2w2)J220

M0MAC (1021 30ci8 12'ci

(io)33ci

MQT�10 00f5 43â1 ITh

(cir)2332

(ooi)•00ci

(is)2JJ82 I'1928

CL!IJJ6

2GUOfl2 003 2T 'l9(iivci)333

(oo3)013

(nws)2UQ

Li6D1

b(Ji) JJL!UC62WbJG

(b_)J\kiA9LiuCG

Y0L()

'f !:)

bGc!ic CP9L9c1L!8C8LPJ : /UIJCG uq DGCOWbO!POU COULOII!u E°1

Page 69: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

;vjcjGur cLo2-bL6ciucJ bobn1gjou A9LT9UCG (qJG hLCJ1JCf MGLG Cji02G1J V- V' (4 11J6 J1JJ1F (4 y OL 1jJ6 1,1GM JOLj( C!1' qJ9 JJJJbjG i TIJJboJp16 {6CJ1R6 IjJ(Lr 1?uq (u)(it) rwbJrGq niu iuiuc j.JJG qp uq ixp cojnwue ¶JLG ji6 6iuJJ1Gq 1GA61 obGL cgbg' iq bGLcGu uoU-MplfG uq J2 CUUJG jpG jOrTLIJJ COJrTWU 1piqq poriepojq L9162' boAGLX jij OMUGL occnbtGq ponaru bLobGr.IA JXG' hOICG

bobnpiiiou LoMJJ' L6OU9J qnuJuJ6' 6qrlc9rTou LgG2' nuGwbJo?uiGul1 L9tG2 GJIJJJGM6LG !=bLGqTc6q (p26q ou i' 16L622!ou2 COUILOJI!U oi. cnttuj bobnJ9rorJ' b&i

9LTIJCG= [ (cum cTA! LE*14) * \ o cT!G2 (2Gcouq

JJ6 ALTUC6 qk12f6q IOL O2GLAJG CTIX IGUqGUC!62 1Ot/JL2 CLTUJGjy uq couq coJnuJu2 91.6 p6 291116 92 IO2G !U jYj6 5 JJJ6 pn.q COIflUJU L6bLGG1J2

V12�8TÔ8? 0000� 02 0•00

(o)JT

(ooo&000J

()JJ�

M=e () (iQ)LOU 0000T 0t 00I� J 05 J'i=i () (ooo& (1o5)Ii?? OO0 281 �5 J55 001 . TJ0L'i�O (i�)MAC 00J2 22 120 T051MJ� (vi) (j)Th�0 0008 JJ NO 05 10I2 M=28 (22) (oo) (s)ytio 1PG1 0008 251 185 20� 05'1 2833V1Q2T (8T) (ooQ2) (ioo)Th8 OIN5 802 V8 J"W2 0002 J'cJ1M�0 (s)MAC 00J TT•5 2'f J2001,i=QJ� () (oos) (Jw3)Th�0 0013 i2 3J T8 002Th22' M=Q28 (J) (oo2) (Q)f9LCGUA 0Q' 52 3W5 20 •05' IIJM3T (2) (ooo�) ()T8 005 QJ J05 Q5 0011 QTi'i=o (ni)MAC 00T J 8 TTV1=J� (5T) (oos) (se)Th�0 0019 �52 5YQ .00Th82' M=Q28 (swi) (oo3) (jo)Rr1LISLA 00J W02 2 4FO O5� 54)6L!62 MI-I)) A9LI9LJCG (b—b)4 Y0 Y )Dg 9UJbJG JLIUCG L(J)

bGcjc coupunqJJ6 f: AL!SUCG iuq DGCOWbO2POU COUfLOJL1U LOLC!A

Page 70: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

bobrijiou iiotrF 12 iWbo22ipJG OL 46M AOLI( 6Cfl2G O !1J2flWC!GIJI CLO2-bLGC!1JC1

uq fpG ct) 69fTL62 (it) 12 cou2IL9Tu6q 10 JD6 >012 GdflJ O > OL y pG1u g A6CfOL iucjnq6 couu (o jJJ6 IW6LCGbI)

ciA bobn1iou 1P6 q6bGuqGuc6 o (it) ou cirA cpsLq6LT2rTc2 922flW6 ¶i pun. IOLW MGt6JjJ6 ¶M6L62 MGL6 oriuq pA iiu p6bqcq Afl62 O t) OAGL C11i62' MGPt!IJ pX

182' '128VL2OU 05 3Q ()33

(se)-3

(2)3 ()-33 03

182 M=28fl1O JJ6j1

(oo)033 3QJ

(us)3

(302)T21

(208)-181

(oo)J JÔ

J82' M=28rsLc6UA

(oof)030 ô2

(io'ooo)-0'0O0

(3'000)-13'000

(�'ooo)3'O00

(m'ooo)138'000 3Q

Th82 I'1Q28pIILJflA

(oo)05'

. (3)-2

(s2)553

(m&32

(o)1383 1�

Th82' MQ28VJJf

(oo)013 SN

(18Q)'108

(is)133

(512)-50 ()-18Q

.

•J

182 J'128gOppGLA 05 ThQ

(120)223

(102)-3

(183)-382 (t)-Q5 •J3

J82' 4228gsbG

(oo3)ois w�

(ir)18

(�,)-n

(132)-

(ss)2 •so

182' V1228AIJL6L

Coos)011 'U

(ta)1'V2

(s)-83

(o)-J�'1

(ioa)JYO 31

MAC V1=�0 1j 15 (8)-38'13(m2s)-12J

(s�s)Q3 (o)-3183 ]

jO (ooi)00'1 '128 ()30 ()1�3

('o)-J33

(J2)— J3

Th82' M228cqw2GL1Of

(oo)010 82

(ims)-1�S3

(1o'18)312 (jj)JOJO

(3321)3JT 0

EKIEDYIY

Y 1(11)

yA6L9G

IUIGLt6bI U0UM16 I-Ia c'q LGImJIG HHb6LCGUI L6LCGU liGLCGUI

DG(6LWUUI2 01 U)H

vJJoMiu mt(s)) jo AJL "!W C!1 CP9LCGL!!C2j9JG : LIUCG IJq DGC0Wb0!0U'

Page 71: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

riiiiH v8 b9iIqmI nsimV nI noibub9Jl :A 1dfiT I9boM £hdi1iup1 LqituM oi efiM

U V '4 b'4 )J4 d'l 64 0 W £ 111

'cQ• Os

f

cci. O.

o. 8.2

CI. O.

80. &.

IO. €.O\.

I.&

I. o. 880. 0. a. ?20. LtC

O. Ed. O.

880. 0. L 0. %€..

f. SOO.

If. £0.

ft. 0.

80. t. i0. OE.

0. 0. I.8f

it. roo.

i. to.

Cf. cO.

ft. o.

80. r.

0. &.

.tO. O.

&.1

lo tow 91Iii 9d11 d b9bivib 8f ru 9fflfl) auoh is b9au flifiCi 8=M :asiol4 '- oirui sisb 9111 9ifi1sq9 oi (Wi nidu5l biisJ 19ieqmsU) rnr1iiio1s M1 a9aU .rioiisluqoq lo \ii1id13do1q 9111 .9.i) 9!i!!idsdo1q nixiM .rIsi1Bv me Jud anm \ rliiw 1mion

.i1sii ni nwori si (mnundiliup9 n9vi ni ni9d jvjiD

aL6cnlot4 9i1mqs owT lo noiJcmiieEJ :fl 9IcJ1T (e9rzthmV owT nsM owT)

cJLI I;LI d0 0 m nf

?0. . !0. . 1

Page 72: ii1O - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · noilBluqoq asob Ion sbubcu cbum lo sdl sis1 t2iluol noiis!uqoq Isdi aislns 9(11 %(iiD lud 2116111 i ion bslnuoD as Ilsq lo 9(11 2'(Ii) .rioilsluqoq

UOU-MJJI IC.

,jorc2: fl2C fPG LG qflJ JLOW LCIC221OU2 ou bobnj,itou bobnpu:ou LOMf isc Lc;ouJI qnwwJc 7IJq bCLCGUL

I4AC bL6C!1JC12CLIWG J126L!0fl2

03 3 -. J J0

I'oCL!W6 ffG261 1002

11 -0? O

jgCL!W6 II'26L!002O

________ 3846LLG2f

KI'H2

BI'flIJCwb

110026HGø2IGWI6

ODLCG O OCJI1 IUGL1C!0U VUGL C01UL0IJ!U LOL C0tL!GJflJG j: JLJJJ COLLGV1!OU2 flGrIiGGIJ CL!mG KUG JIJq IoGIJIJJ

I'IAC aca WfC ctc)!1uI2C1!0U iupjc (c CLO22-C!O CUWC L9TC JØi2 coaccq "!W iào LLC2f 12W it',c cuinc 12LC coucjtcq m!ipacpou impjc qqj''i'°" q °"- !" 9bbcuqxx Ecp coii M!w coLLC2boUqtu

ojc2: OL jg CL022 ciA i= i° i.xo OL lIlAC bLcciuc qw 4=j 0L cOUAICflOU 12CC

WAC bLGG!0C12CUWG II626L!0fl2

? 03 O 1PICUO

IOCUW U626L!0fl2

-18 33 3 ô 0?

I 2CUWG HUIG26L1002

-08 -. Jo SQ 11P1CUO

K*VLLG2I

ict'cqH2

giGflUGWb

H°02'C8q2EGWØIG

K816ouC0U1!C-

OHLCG2 O OCJJ IU6L4!011PJPIG y: W"1 COLLGVJ!OU2 D6IiGGll CL!WE KJ1G2 uq JO6IJ1iJI