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II. THE AFFECTED POPULATION The primary affected population could be found in the parishes of Kingston and St. Andrew, in an area collectively defined as the Western Kingston Area. This area comprises Denham Town, Central Downtown, Tivoli Gardens, Fletchers Land, Hanna Town and West Downtown possessing a population of some 39,332 persons. 3 Table 2 provides a break down of the area by communities, indicating that the largest proportion of the population, some 41%, could be found in the community of Tivoli Gardens. Figure 1 provides an illustration of the distribution of the primary affected population by communities.

Table 2: Primary affected population

Figure 1: Distribution of primary affected population by communities

16%

13%

41%

13%

9%8%

Denham Town Central Down Town TivoliFletcher's Land Hanna Town West Down Town

Source: ECLAC estimates based on official Government of Jamaica data.

3 This figure is based on the population census data (2001) as provided by STATIN. It may be an underestimation as other sources such as the JCF, suggest that the population in Tivoli Gardens has grown and stands at over 25,000. The Ministry of Labour and Social Security also suggests a larger population figure.

Communities

Total Population

Denham Town 6,279 Central Downtown 5,304 Tivoli Gardens 16,031 Fletchers Land 5,000 Hanna Town 3493 West Downtown 3225 Total 39,332 Source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN)

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It is important to note that while Western Kingston was the locus of the event, several other communities were severely affected in terms of livelihoods lost, dried up liquidity arising from their symbiotic relationship with Western Kingston and because of the security dynamics affecting them. In some instances, the “dons”4, who were the communities’ economic mainstay, took cover and in others were imprisoned. In fact, some of these communities are now having a greater difficulty adjusting than the ones in Western Kingston.

Another group affected, but which the assessment was not able to measure, is the farmers in rural communities. These sales would have been affected both in volume and discounted prices as the market vendors had to make adjustments.

A. SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PRIMARY POPULATION

The people who live in the Western Kingston Area , and who form the primary affected population live with a reputation and stigma derived from what is perceived by others in the Jamaican society as , living within or as part of ‘armed violence situations’. This perception comes from the historic development of garrison Communities in Jamaica.5 Turner, Ginifer and Cliffe (2005) suggest that armed violence situations have been defined as ‘the totality of a social situation in which armed violence is persistent and endemic”. The authors suggest that such situations can have two dimensions which may overlap. The first dimension is a situation in which armed violence is being

4 Dr. Rupert Lewis (2010) in his recent paper, “Notes on the West Kingston Crisis and Party Politics”, defined the garrison “as essentially a constituency in which the core of its political capacity among the grass-roots is based on the power of the area leader or don who controls the use of violence and scare benefits and keeps the constituency aligned to the party with a huge plurality of the votes so the member of parliament is guaranteed a safe seat.” In his paper he cites the 40- year tenure of Mr. Edward Seaga in West Kingston, until his retirement in 2005, as testimony to the power of the garrison. He notes that “there have been three generations of dons in Tivoli Gardens from the 1960s to 2010 with the last Don (Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke) , being the most powerful deriving over $140 million of State contracts in construction and being in control of a powerful multinational Shower Posse gang that is said to trade in drugs and guns.” He notes that according to Harriott (2008) “some 20% of all constituencies and approximately 60% of all urban constituencies have already been fully or partially garrisoned”. 5 See Dr. Rupert Lewis’ footnote above.

Elderly woman and young girl in Tivoli Gardens Source: ECLAC DaLA Team

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used by one or more parties in the context of a political conflict, characteristically it is an internalized conflict. The second dimension involves violent organized criminality with the systematic use of armed violence for criminal and related purposes, such as what has become common in Rio de Janeiro, Nairobi, Kenya and El Salvador.

The primary affected population which can be found in the defined areas are characterized by their youthfulness, their low levels of attained education, relatively high youth unemployment as a proportion of total unemployment and a higher than national average female headship that is largely unemployed. Tables 2 and 3 provide selected characteristics of the affected population.

The population in these districts, also display another dimension, that of resourcefulness and resilience. They are engaged in multiple livelihood strategies which they call ‘hustle’ but which display sharp entrepreneurial characteristics.6 They are engaged in wholesale and retail trade, cosmetic industries, beauty salons, repair of mechanical and electrical appliances, masonry and carpentry. Significantly large proportions own the property in which they reside, either land or building. Table 3 details ownership levels from a low of 24% to a high of 64% where data is available.

Table 3: Selected demographic characteristics of the primary affected population

Communities Total population

Total number of

households

Percent male

households

Percent female

households Denham Town 6,279 1610 46 54 Central Downtown 5,304 1434 46 54 Tivoli Gardens 16,031 3910 37.8 62.2 Fletcher’s Land 5,000 1429 47 53 Hanna Town 3,493 944 50 50 West Downtown 3,225 872 … … Total 39,332

Source: Community Development Profiles of selected communities: Map 2 provides a spatial look at the distribution of poverty in the affected areas suggesting that areas such as Tivoli Gardens are not among the poorest. Map 3 reinforces the notion that the population in the Western Kingston area is not socio-economically homogenous. The population of Tivoli Gardens community again appears to be not among the poorest, but the map suggests that other areas in the Western Kingston area, such as Denham Town and Fletchers Land, had significant proportions of their population among the poorest in the affected area.

6 Information based on focus group discussion with key knowledgeable persons from the affected communities.

Young men using the library which is housed in the community centre in Tivoli Gardens Source: ECLAC DaLA Team

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Map 2

Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica

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Map 3

Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica

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Table 4: Selected social characteristics of the primary affected population by Communities

Source: Community Development Profiles for selected communities

Communities

Percentage of youth

15-24

Youth unemployment

(as a percentage of

all unemployed)

Proportion of

households employed

Employed head of household

by sex

Secondary school as highest level of

education attained

Ownership of property on which residing

Percent of population that have a

low perception of crime

Male Female Denham Town 23% 46% 71% 88% 58% 85 Central Down Town 17.6 21 64.9 75 56.8 62.2 24.4 85.2 Tivoli Gardens 19.3 30.4 61 65 59 62.5 68 Fletchers Land 20 40.50% 71.00% 85.1 14.9 54% 43.5 60% Hanna Town West Down Town

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Figure 2: Distribution of affected population by extent of impact

A f f ect ed Po pulat ion

2% 11%

87%

Pr imar y Af f ected population

Secondar y Population

Not di r ectly af f ected

Source: ECLAC estimates based on official Government of Jamaica data.

Figure 2 presents an illustration of the distribution of the affected population. Three groups of the

population are identified, the primary, secondary and those not affected. It illustrates that the total affected population includes not only the primary affected population which could be found at the site of the event, Western Kingston area, but those who formed part of the employed labour force who worked in the parishes of Kingston and St. Andrew. The assessors were fully aware that the employed labour force in those two parishes are an underestimation of the secondary affected population but it represents a good proxy group for those who stayed away from work for any number of reasons, from other parishes in Jamaica. Among those, the stated reasons for absenteeism were based on advice from State authorities or employers as a state of emergency had been declared. Others stayed away for fear of personal safety or safety of loved ones and yet another group stayed away due to the disruption of normal travel arrangements either for themselves or key care givers, during the period. In illustrating the affected population, figure 2 also indicates the magnitude of the primary affected population which significantly accounts for only 2% of the total population of Jamaica. The secondary population accounts for 11%, with the remaining 87% representing those that are not directly affected. It can be concluded, therefore, that, 349,674 or some 13% of the Jamaican population may have been directly affected by the events. The assessors are aware that the entire population of Jamaica including even its Diaspora may have been emotionally engaged with what was taking place, but this assessment refers only to the effect on the primary and secondary affected population.

A further examination of the secondary population indicated that some 12% were employed in the public sector and the remaining 88% in the private sector, as illustrated in figure 3. This begins to point to which sector might sustain significant loss to productivity due to the event.

Map 4 presents the Central Business District of the Western Kingston area which accounts for

48% or 132,432 persons from among the employed labour force of the Kingston and St. Andrew Parishes.

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Map 4

Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica

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Figure 3: Distribution of secondary affected population by labour market

Private Sector88%

Public Sector12%

Private Sector Public Sector

Source: ECLAC estimates based on official Government of Jamaica data.

B. DISPLACEMENT OF EXAMINATION STUDENTS The police operations in Western Kingston occurred at a critical time on the education calendar. At the time of the event, high school students were in the process of sitting the Caribbean Advanced Proficiency Examination (CAPE) and the Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate (CSEC) secondary level regional exams. A total of 351 of over 12,300 CAPE candidates and 1877 or 2.4% of CSEC candidates were affected during the period of violence.

In a release on 19 May, the Ministry of Education announced that sittings of the CSEC and CAPE exams scheduled for Tivoli Gardens Comprehensive High, Kingston High, Denham Town High, Charlie Smith High and Trench Town Comprehensive Town High schools would be moved to other locations for the rest of the examination season. On 25 May, the Ministry of Education closed all basic, infant, primary and high schools in Kingston proper until further notice. Candidates from 14 public institutions were relocated to other centres. It was reported that schools in West Kingston registered lower than usual attendance levels since the signing by Attorney General and Justice Minister Dorothy Lightbourne of the Authority to Proceed with the extradition request for Christopher Coke7.

A new examination which seeks to standardize assessment of ninth graders in all high schools in Jamaica was also postponed because of the unrest in West Kingston. The grade nine diagnostic tests for high schools, was scheduled for 2-3 June. The tests would have seen grade nine students from more than 130 high schools across the island doing the same exam in three subjects: English, Mathematics and Integrated Science. The exam papers could not have been delivered to the participating schools as the Ministry of Education's offices at the Caenwood Centre on Arnold Road was inaccessible due to violence. Also, the Ministry of Education was forced to reschedule the Grade Three Diagnostic test and the Grade Four Literacy and Numeracy exams because of the uncertain situation. The grade three test, originally earmarked for 1-2 June was shifted to 15-16 June while the grade four tests were postponed from 16 June to 29 June.

7 Jamaica Observer. May 20, 2010 – “Human Shields in Tivoli Gardens”