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IGAD: Lacking Unity but LIKELY TO Support ive AFRICOM. 18 February 2013 Produced for U.S. Africa Command by: Arthur Analyst Amy Analyst Andy Analyst Annie Analyst. Overview. Executive Summary Key Findings Discussion Intergovernmental Authority on Development Djibouti Somalia Sudan - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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18 February 2013
Produced for U.S. Africa Command by:
Arthur AnalystAmy AnalystAndy AnalystAnnie Analyst
IGAD: LACKING UNITY BUT LIKELY TO SUPPORTIVE AFRICOM
Executive SummaryKey FindingsDiscussion
Intergovernmental Authority on Development
DjiboutiSomaliaSudanUganda
OVERVIEW
Most IGAD members are likely to support AFRICOM mission despite lack of unity
between members and instability in Sudan.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
IGAD: Unlikely to be unified, but likely to support Security operations in Somalia Peace negotiations in Sudan Economic development
Djibouti: Likely to support Base of operations for security
missions Facilitating diplomatic relations Building economic cooperation
KEY FINDINGS
Djibouti’s location is ideal for CT operations in Yemen and Somalia and anti-piracy in the Gulf of AdenSources: Inset - http://tinyurl.com/azlgv5m Large - http://tinyurl.com/3uluzjk
Somalia: Likely to support AMISOM security operations Delivery of public services Reform of economic and judicial
systems Re-establishing diplomatic and
economic ties
Sudan: Unlikely to support Struggling with security and stability
issues
Uganda: Likely to support Direct military support for security
missions Continuing IGAD leadership
KEY FINDINGS
President Hassan (left) and Secretary of State Clinton (right) at the press conference announcing the US recognition of Somalia. Source: http://tinyurl.com/apafxgf .
DISCUSSION - IGAD
Unlikely to provide unified support to AFRICOM
Internal conflict restrains effectiveness
Somalia is an area of focus
Djiboutian soldiers supporting the AMISOM mission in the Somali town of Belet WeyneSource: http://amisom-au.org/djibouti/
DISCUSSION - DJIBOUTI
Ideal location for counterterrorism and antipiracy missions
Troop support to AMISOM
Facilitator for diplomatic relations among IGAD members
Economic growth is key to regional stability
Camp Lemonier in Djibouti provides AFRICOM a critical base of operations in the Horn of AfricaSources: Camp - http://tinyurl.com/ao2tfcv Inset - http://tinyurl.com/af2cxc8
DISCUSSION - SOMALIAPledged support to
AFRICOM and IGAD missions
Using international assistance to provide public services
New constitution and government
Rapprochement with other IGAD member states
Southern Somalia: recent government-allied advances against Al Shabaab
Source: Maps by Evan Centanni, Eric Gaba, and TheEmirr. (license: CC BY-SA) http://tinyurl.com/a9qrq7z.
DISCUSSION - SUDANHampered by
domestic security and stability issues
Economic downturn due to decrease in oil sales
Border violence with rebel groups
Refused IGAD meditation for negotiations with South Sudan
Disputed border areas and conflicts during 2012.
Source: http://tinyurl.com/bbrwgo2.
DISCUSSION - UGANDA
Well-trained military
Key to fight against LRA in South Sudan
Provides significant troop support to AMISOM
Active leadership role in IGAD
U.S. Marine training Ugandan Soldier (Kampala, Uganda)
Source: http://www.africom.mil/NEWSROOM/Article/8863/us-marine-corps-forces-africa-partners-with-uganda
Analytic confidence is high
Source reliability is very high
Analysts’ expertise is high
Time available for task was adequate
ANALYTIC CONFIDENCE
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Contact Information:
Djibouti: Arthur Analyst Email: [email protected]
Somalia: Amy Analyst Email: [email protected]
Sudan : Andy Analyst E-Mail: [email protected]
Uganda : Any Analyst Email: [email protected]
QUESTIONS?
Jane’s Information Group. (2012). North Africa Security Assessment. Jane’s Sentinel, 31. (Reliability: 48.08, Very High. Accessed January 2013)
http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-lays-bare-reservations-over,42468 (Reliability:47.94, Very High. Accessed February 2013)
http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/countries/east-africa/djibouti/ (Reliability: 43.79, High. Accessed January 2013)
http://www.igad.int/attachments/559_COMMUNIQUE%20OF%20THE%2046th%20IGAD%20EXTRAORDINARY%20COUNCIL%20MINISTERS.pdf. (Reliability: 52.88, Very High. Accessed February 2013)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-expands-secret-intelligence-operations-in-africa/2012/06/13/gJQAHyvAbV_story_3.html (Reliability: 52.8, Very High. Accessed February 2013)
PRIMARY REFERENCES
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16969483 (Reliability: 52.09, Very High. Accessed January 2013)
http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/articles/hoa/articles/newsbriefs/2013/01/21/newsbrief-07 (Reliability: 48.31, Very High. Accessed January 2013)
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/opinion/hope-and-lessons-in-somalia.html?_r=0 (Reliability: 42.77, High. Accessed January 2013)
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2013-01/27/c_132130154.htm (Reliability: 39.09, Medium. Accessed February 2013)
PRIMARY REFERENCES
http://news.sudanvisiondaily.com/details.html?rsnpid=209843 (Reliability: 46, High. Accessed February 2013)
http://news.yahoo.com/african-mediators-press-sudans-end-stand-off-151428704.html (Reliability: 47, High. Accessed February 2013)
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1257300/-/bhytjgz/-/index.html (Reliability: 48.36, High. Accessed February 2013)
http://www.africom.mil/Newsroom/Article/8495/ugandan-press-delegation-visits-us-africa-command- (Reliability: 52.88, Very High. Accessed January 2013)
PRIMARY REFERENCES