26
7/21/2019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/ifgl-refractories-initiating-coverage-centrum-24062014 1/26  34Centrum Equity Research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and FactSet  Lining up for growth and margin expansion We initiate coverage on IFGL Refractories Ltd (IFGL) with ~55% upside as we are impressed by the company’s foresight in strategically expanding its high margin facilities at Kandla, Gujarat and Ohio, US at minimal capex which provides strong visibility on earnings growth and margin expansion. Favorable demand outlook for refractories from both domestic and European markets on the back of increasing steel production provides an opportunity for growth. Improving balance sheet health, strong free cash flow visibility (yield of ~12% in FY16E) and attractive returns (ROE of 18.5% in FY16E) are added positives.  Expansion at Kandla to be the game changer for domestic operations:  We expect expansion (doubling of capacity by Q1FY16E) at IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL), Kandla to be the game changer for IFGL as margins at IEL are ~25% (vs ~14% at standalone operations) due to SEZ benefits and huge freight advantage on exports (~US$700/container for a shipment to Europe) on account of its port based location. We expect volumes & EBITDA at IEL to more than double in the next three years. Exports from standalone operations (~57% share) should be substituted by IEL gradually, improving margins at the standalone entity as it supplies more in the domestic market.  Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround: IFGL has successfully turned around its overseas operations (~53% of cons. revenue in FY14) by consolidation & recalibration of various facilities and has seen steady earnings trajectory with key subsidiaries like Monocon group/EI Ceramics clocking EBITDA CAGR of ~16%/38% during FY11-14. Doubling of capacity (by Q1FY16E) at EI Ceramics, which enjoys highest margins (~16%) among overseas subsidiaries, is expected to not only provide strong earnings growth but also margin improvement to IFGL from its overseas subsidiaries’ basket.  Balance sheet strengthened, free cash flow generation strong:  IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improved sharply (up 240% YoY) led by higher profitability across operations. We see strong free cash flow generation ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E). We see free cash flow/EBITDA going up to 0.4x in FY16E (vs 0.2x in FY14) and free cash flow yield is expected to be ~12% in FY16E. Balance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level in the next three years.  Valuation and risks - poised for rerating:  We expect earnings momentum to continue with an EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 13.6%/11.6% during FY14-16E led by volume growth from expansions and margin improvement. Despite the recent up move, the stock trades at attractive valuations of 6.2x FY16E P/E and 3.6x FY16E EV/EBITDA. We value the stock at 5.5xMar’16E EV/EBITDA to arrive at our TP of Rs220. Initiate with a Buy. The stock is currently very thinly covered by the street. Key risks are sharp increase in imported raw material costs and extreme stress in the steel industry in India and Europe. Target Price Rs220 Key Data Bloomberg Code IFGL IN CMP* Rs142 Curr Shares O/S (mn) 34.6 Diluted Shares O/S(mn) 34.6 Upside 55% Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDmn) 4.9/81.6 Price Performance (%)*  52 Wk H / L (Rs) 156.7/23.5 1M 6M 1Yr 5 Year H / L (Rs) 156.7/15.3 IFGL IN 21.2 151.0 421.9 Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 88220 Nifty 1.7 19.2 32.2 *as on 23 June 2014; Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research Shareholding pattern (%) * Mar-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Promoter 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 FIIs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DIIs 1.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 Others 27.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 Source: BSE, *as on 23 June 2014 Strong free cash flow generation ahead Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates ROE has improved, surpasses peers Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates, * CY07 = FY08 EV/EBITDA of IFGL vs Vesuvius Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research Abhisar Jain, CFA  , [email protected]; 91 22 4215 9928 Y/E Mar(Rs mn) Rev YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) PAT YoY (%) EPS (Rs) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY13 6,712 11.2 582 8.7 282 (29.2) 8.2 11.5 8.4 17.4 10.2 FY14 7,776 15.9 1,096 14.1 640 126.9 18.5 21.2 17.7 7.7 5.3 FY15E 8,484 9.1 1,210 14.3 686 7.1 19.8 19.0 17.5 7.2 4.6 FY16E 9,554 12.6 1,414 14.8 798 16.3 23.1 18.5 18.9 6.2 3.6 FY17E 10,697 12.0 1,630 15.2 928 16.3 26.8 18.1 19.8 5.3 2.7 Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates -527 -99 -39 211 445 549 657 (1000) (500) 0 500 1000 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E     (     R    s    m    n     ) OCF Capex Free Cash Flow (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 C Y0 7 C Y0 8 C Y09 C Y10 C Y1 1 C Y12 C Y13 C Y1 4E C Y15E     (     %     ) Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios Chosu n Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12     F    e     b     0     9     J    u    n   -     0     9     O    c    t   -     0     9     F    e     b   -     1     0     J    u    n   -     1     0     O    c    t   -     1     0     F    e     b   -     1     1     J    u    n   -     1     1     O    c    t   -     1     1     F    e     b     1     2     J    u    n   -     1     2     O    c    t   -     1     2     F    e     b   -     1     3     J    u    n   -     1     3     O    c    t   -     1     3     F    e     b     1     4     J    u    n   -     1     4     (    x     ) EV/EBITDA IFGL EV/EBITDA Vesuvius Buy Metals & Mining Initiating Coverage 24 June 2014 INDIA IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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Page 1: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullifgl-refractories-initiating-coverage-centrum-24062014 126

34Centrum Equity Research is available on Bloomberg Thomson Reuters and FactSet

Lining up for growth and margin expansion

We initiate coverage on IFGL Refractories Ltd (IFGL) with ~55 upside as

we are impressed by the companyrsquos foresight in strategically expanding itshigh margin facilities at Kandla Gujarat and Ohio US at minimal capexwhich provides strong visibility on earnings growth and margin expansionFavorable demand outlook for refractories from both domestic andEuropean markets on the back of increasing steel production provides anopportunity for growth Improving balance sheet health strong free cashflow visibility (yield of ~12 in FY16E) and attractive returns (ROE of 185in FY16E) are added positives

Expansion at Kandla to be the game changer for domestic operations Weexpect expansion (doubling of capacity by Q1FY16E) at IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL)Kandla to be the game changer for IFGL as margins at IEL are ~25 (vs ~14 atstandalone operations) due to SEZ benefits and huge freight advantage on

exports (~US$700container for a shipment to Europe) on account of its portbased location We expect volumes amp EBITDA at IEL to more than double in thenext three years Exports from standalone operations (~57 share) should besubstituted by IEL gradually improving margins at the standalone entity as itsupplies more in the domestic market

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround IFGL hassuccessfully turned around its overseas operations (~53 of cons revenue inFY14) by consolidation amp recalibration of various facilities and has seen steadyearnings trajectory with key subsidiaries like Monocon groupEI Ceramics clockingEBITDA CAGR of ~1638 during FY11-14 Doubling of capacity (by Q1FY16E) atEI Ceramics which enjoys highest margins (~16) among overseas subsidiaries isexpected to not only provide strong earnings growth but also marginimprovement to IFGL from its overseas subsidiariesrsquo basket

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong IFGL has turnedfree cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flowimproved sharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations Wesee strong free cash flow generation ahead on the back of limited capex(~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) We see free cash flowEBITDA going up to04x in FY16E (vs 02x in FY14) and free cash flow yield is expected to be ~12 inFY16E Balance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt freeat a consolidated level in the next three years

Valuation and risks - poised for rerating We expect earnings momentum tocontinue with an EBITDAPAT CAGR of 136116 during FY14-16E led byvolume growth from expansions and margin improvement Despite the recent upmove the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62x FY16E PE and 36x FY16E

EVEBITDA We value the stock at 55xMarrsquo16E EVEBITDA to arrive at our TP ofRs220 Initiate with a Buy The stock is currently very thinly covered by the streetKey risks are sharp increase in imported raw material costs and extreme stress inthe steel industry in India and Europe

Target Price Rs220 Key Data

Bloomberg Code IFGL IN

CMP Rs142 Curr Shares OS (mn) 346

Diluted Shares OS(mn) 346

Upside 55 Mkt Cap (RsbnUSDmn) 49816

Price Performance () 52 Wk H L (Rs) 1567235

1M 6M 1Yr 5 Year H L (Rs) 1567153

IFGL IN 212 1510 4219 Daily Vol (3M NSE Avg) 88220

Nifty 17 192 322

as on 23 June 2014 Source Bloomberg Centrum Research

Shareholding pattern ()

Mar-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE as on 23 June 2014

Strong free cash flow generation ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

ROE has improved surpasses peers

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

EVEBITDA of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Centrum Research

Abhisar Jain CFA abhisarjaincentrumcoin 91 22 4215 9928

YE Mar(Rs mn) Rev YoY () EBITDA EBITDA () PAT YoY () EPS (Rs) RoE () RoCE () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x)

FY13 6712 112 582 87 282 (292) 82 115 84 174 102

FY14 7776 159 1096 141 640 1269 185 212 177 77 53

FY15E 8484 91 1210 143 686 71 198 190 175 72 46

FY16E 9554 126 1414 148 798 163 231 185 189 62 36

FY17E 10697 120 1630 152 928 163 268 181 198 53 27

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(500)

0

500

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14ECY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY)Vesuvius PLC Puyang Refractories

Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita RefractariosChosu n Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY)Shinagawa (FY)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b 1 4

J u n - 1 4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

BuyMetals amp Mining

Initiating Coverage 24 June 2014

INDIA

IFGL Refractories Ltd

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullifgl-refractories-initiating-coverage-centrum-24062014 226

2IFGL Refractories Ltd

Table of Content

Expansion at Kandla to be the game changer for domestic operations 3

Capacity being doubled at IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL Kandla) 3

Substantial savings in freight expenses for exports from Kandla vis-agrave-vis Orissa 3

IEL enjoys higher margins due to SEZ benefits and strategic location 4

Higher utilization and lower exports to provide margin uptick at Orissa 5

Expansions by integrated steel mills provide domestic demand visibility 6

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround 7

Several strategic acquisitions in last decade for expanding reach and product basket 7

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved 8

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth 9

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings 9

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong 10

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex 10

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level 11

Financials 12

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations 12

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141 12

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity 13

Valuation ndash poised for rerating 14

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peers 14

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average 15

Key risks to our thesis 16

Company Background 17

Comments on recent quarterly results 18

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry 19

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures 19

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings 20

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR 21

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure 22

Financials (Cons) 23

Financials (Cons) - Historical 24

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Expansion at Kandla to be the game changer for domestic operations

Capacity being doubled at IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL Kandla)

IFGL is currently in the process of doubling the capacity of continuous casting refractories at itssubsidiary (51 stake) IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL) IEL started operations in FY13 (May 2012) with a capacityof 80k pcsyear and achieved sales volumes of ~64k pcs in FY14 We see sales volumes from IEL more

than doubling by FY17E to reach 136k pcs IFGL has spent ~Rs400mn on IEL so far and plans to spend~Rs60mn for the second phase of expansion (80k pcsyear) while the third phase of expansion wouldtake the capacity to 300k pcsyear at an additional capex of Rs140mn

Exhibit 1 Capacity expansion planned at IEL Kandla Exhibit 2 Sales volumes at IEL to double in 3 years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Substantial savings in freight expenses for exports from Kandla vis-agrave-vis Orissa

Exports account for 55+ share in revenues from IFGLrsquos standalone operations through its plant atKalunga Orissa and Europe accounts for ~65 of exports IEL specifically chose an SEZ in KandlaGujarat to enjoy the benefits of lower freight costs for exports (~US$700 lower freight on per containerbasis for shipment to Europe ndash see exhibit 3 below)

Exhibit 3

IFGL plants in India ndash Capacity and freight differential for exports

Source Company Centrum Research

80000

80000

160000

140000

300000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Phase 1 Phase 2 TotalCapacity

PotentialPhase 3

Potential Total

Capacity

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E FY17-18E

21148

64225

80000

112000

136000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Sales Volumes (pcs)

Odisha

Gujrat

Kalunga

Kandla

Capacity of IFGL ExportsKandla getting doubled

to 160k pcsyear byQ1FY16E

Kandla facility providescrucial freight savings forexports apart from otherSEZ benefits

IFGL Exports Ltd

Kandla Gujarat Products

IFGL

RefractoriesOrissa

CapacityCurrent

CapacityPost

Expansion

80000 300000Continuous casting ref(pcsyr)

360000

NA NA Slide gate ref (pcsyr) 300000

NA NAPurge plugs cast products(pcsyr)

116000

NA NA Unshaped (tpa) 24000

~50Kms Distance from port ~400Kms

2012 Plant set-up date 1990

FY14 Exports - Rs1883mn (~57 of sales)

UK 7

Europe(excl

UK) 65

Asia(excl

India)15

Americas6

Others7

Freight difference for shipment toEurope form Kandla Vs Odisha

US$container

Inland Freight difference 500Sea Freight difference 200

Total Freight advantage for IEL plant 700

FY14 Exports - Rs395mn (100 of sales)

UK 8

Europe(excl

UK) 79

Asia(excl

India)2

Americas4

Others8

3IFGL Refractories Ltd

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4IFGL Refractories Ltd

IEL enjoys higher margins due to SEZ benefits and strategic location

IEL enjoys much higher margins than its parentrsquos standalone operations (FY14 EBITDA margins stoodat 256 for IEL vs 139 for IFGL standalone) This is on account of various benefits like i) IEL beinglocated in an SEZ which has key advantages such as a) no duty on imported raw materials b) taxsavings on domestically procured raw materials and c) exemption from income tax for 5 years ii) portbased location of the plant (~50 kms) which helps in reducing inland freight and iii) proximity toexport customers (Europe amp Middle east) which helps in reducing sea freight as well as transit time andthus the debtor days With higher utilization on existing capacity and expansions we see sharp jumpin revenueEBITDA for IEL to Rs953mn257mn in FY17E (up ~150 from FY14) We note that IEL hasshown sharp jump in its operating profitability in FY14 which was just the second year of companyrsquosoperations and this demonstrates superior management quality and expertise in the refractorybusiness

Exhibit 4

IEL clocked EBITDA margin of ~26 in FY14 as first phase capacity stabilised

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Short payback and superior returns expected from IEL

We see extremely short payback period for IEL with full capex for expanded capacity to be recoveredby FY17E which implies payback of 34 years for the first phase and 1-2 years for next two phases Dueto attractive profitability profile of IEL on account of its strong logistics advantage we expect superiorreturns with ROEROCE of ~3626 in FY16E

Exhibit 5 Payback for full expansion by FY17E Exhibit 6 Return ratios of IEL to be strong

(Rs mn)Phase 1

(spent byFY14)

Phase 2 (tobe spent

in FY15E)

Phase 3(likely tobe spentin FY16-

17E)

Total(by FY17E)

Capex 410 60 130 600

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA 102 130 204 257

Cumulative EBITDA 102 232 435 693

Cumulative capex 410 470 600 600

Payback achieved (x) 02 05 07 12

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

90

399

518

755

953

-17

102 130204

257

256 250 270 270

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

(100)

100

300

500

700

900

1100

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Sales EBITDA Margin - RHS

179

252

358337

141

179

265 287

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

ROE - ROCE -

Margins at IEL are ~25well above IFGLrsquos otheroperations

Payback for IEL to beachieved before end ofFY17E

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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5IFGL Refractories Ltd

Orissa plant to capture domestic demand and reduce export share in sales

We expect IFGLrsquos flagship plant at Orissa (standalone operations) to capture increasing domesticdemand and gradually reduce the share of exports in total sales as export sales will continue to getshifted to IEL in coming years We see share of exports coming down to 42 in FY17E from 56 inFY14 and domestic sales increasing to 58 for standalone operations IFGL has shown smart revenueCAGR of ~17 at its standalone operations during FY10-14 led by better pricing weak rupeebenefitting exports revenue and improvement in capacity utilization but we expect revenue CAGR of67 during FY14-17E on account of limited room for higher volumes (particularly in continuouscasting refractories segment which is almost completely utilized) reduced share of exports goingforward and low pricing power due to increased competition

Exhibit 7

Exports share in total standalone sales to reduce from FY15E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Higher utilization and lower exports to provide margin uptick at Orissa

Though IFGL is currently running at near full utilization levels for continuous casting refractories at its

Orissa plant it has an opportunity to increase its utilization in other shaped products like slide gaterefractories purge plugs and cast products Also utilization in unshaped refractories is expected toimprove Lower share of exports would result in savings on freight and coupled with higher utilizationlead to lower fixed costs We see IFGLrsquos standalone margins improving by 150bps YoY to 153 inFY15E We expect margins to further improve to 158 by FY17E led by lower exports We note thatmargins have remained very volatile in the standalone operations due to pressure on raw materialcosts high dependence on exports and hence currency fluctuations and lacklustre demandenvironment We expect margin trajectory to remain more stable going ahead with rationalization ofsales in exports and domestic markets as well as overall improvement in demand environment

Exhibit 8 Capacity utilization at Orissa to improve Exhibit 9 Standalone margins expected to expand

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4847

50

44

50

54

5852

53

50

56

50

46

42

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Domestic Sales Export Sales

Domestic - share Exports - share

68

87

78

72

7780 82 84

34

49

65 64

58 6064 66

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Shaped Refractories Unshaped Refractories

291

196

348 342

450

534575

630

166

94

127

112

138

153 154 158

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA (Rs mn) Margin - RHS

IFGLrsquos flagship plant tofocus more on domesticmarkets and see marginimprovement

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6IFGL Refractories Ltd

European demand expected to be better on improving macros

Demand for refractories from European steel mills is expected to be better going forward due togradual pick up in steel production and improving macro situation (as is visible from the pick-up inGDP numbers) Since Europe (including UK) accounts for ~70 of IFGLrsquos exports from domesticoperations and ~50 of revenues on a consolidated basis (including overseas subsidiariesrsquo net sales)we expect IFGL to benefit from improving demand situation in Europe

Exhibit 10

Europe steel production picking up Exhibit 11

GDP in EU amp UK improving

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates CY14 nos annualised for 5MYTD Source Company Centrum Research

Expansions by integrated steel mills provide domestic demand visibility

We see good demand visibility in the domestic market as steel production is expected to pick up ledmainly by higher volumes from large steel mills We expect the share of large integrated steel mills torise to ~60 by FY17E from ~51 in FY14 led mainly by expansions and wide product range We haveconsidered a basket of players (SAIL Tata Steel JSW steel JSPL Essar RINL JSW Ispat) in large steelmills and see volume CAGR of ~12 from them as compared to 6 for the steel industry during FY14-17E IFGL derives ~65 of its domestic revenue from large steel mills and is expected to be a keybeneficiary of the gradual shift in domestic steel production to large steel mills from small mills

Exhibit 12 Steel production growth to pick up Exhibit 13 Led by higher volumes from large steel mills

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 14 Large mills share in steel production to rise Exhibit 15 Large mills to grow faster

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

2099 1969

1375

1732 1775

1412

16561759

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14

EU Production (MT)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

M a r - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

N o v - 0

8

M a r - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

N o v - 0

9

M a r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

N o v - 1

0

M a r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

M a r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

N o v - 1

2

M a r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

N o v - 1

3

M a r - 1 4

UK GDP EU GDP

686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

132

103

79

4050

6070

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

Steel Production - India YoY Growth

339 372 389

433482

539

610

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

SAIL Tata Steel JSW Steel JSPL Essar Steel RINL Ispat Inds

69 76

82 85 89 95

101

34 37 39 43 48 54 61

4949

48

51

54

57 60

40

45

50

55

60

65

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

( M T )

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

share of integrated mills - RHS

74

60

86

121

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CAGR (FY11-14) CAGR (FY14-17E)

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

Domestic steel production shifting tolarge steel mills therebyimproving demandoutlook for organisedrefractory producers

Steel productionand GDP improvingin Europe

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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7IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround

Several strategic acquisitions in last decade for expanding reach and product basket

IFGL has made several overseas acquisitions in the last decade mainly aimed at achieving inorganicgrowth through entry into new markets expanding its product basket and getting access to newtechnologies

IFGL acquired Monocon group in 2005 at a cost of 95mn pounds (Rs560mn) with its plantslocated in Brazil Taiwan China UK and USA Monocon group provided IFGL with wide rangeproduct basket (from Lances Darts Monolithics amp Castables) and also gave access to key largesteel plants in Europe of steelmakers like Corus amp Arcelor Mittal

IFGL acquired Goricon group in 2006 at a cost of 11mn pounds (Rs70mn) and later merged it withMonocon as the companies had similar products and were competitors of each other

Hoffman ceramics was acquired in 2008 at a cost of 7mn euros for getting entry into foundries for

supply of consumables

IFGL acquired EI Ceramics in 2010 which has similar product basket as IFGLrsquos domestic operationsbut provided access to key markets in Americas Company acquired EI Ceramics with an eye on

future expansion as it had space to increase capacity by ~3x IFGL also acquired CUSCinternational in US (later merged with EI) which was providing ancillary services to EI includingprocessing of raw materials warehousing and packaging

Exhibit 16

Snapshot of overseas acquisitions

CompanyAcquired

Year ofacquisition

PurchaseCost

(Rs mn)

PlantLocations

Products Markets Comments

MonoconGroup

2005 560UK USChina

Refractory dartslances monolithics

UK EuropeChina

Services key customers in Europelike Corus Arcelor Brazil plantclosed and Taiwan plant shiftedto China

GoriconGroup

2006 70 UK USDarts lances and ladlepowder

Europe Merged into Monocon

HoffmanCeramics 2008 470 Germany

Refractory ceramicslike filters feeders etc Europe

Czech plant closed suppliesconsumables to foundries

EI Ceramics 2010 590 Ohio USContinuous castingrefractories

US CanadaMexico

Acquired to gain traction inAmerica market

Source Company Centrum Research

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8IFGL Refractories Ltd

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved

IFGL has faced several challenges in managing the profitability and operations of its overseasacquisitions due to global economic crisis in CY08 which impacted steel production in US amp Europevery severely Both Monocon and Hoffman group had EBITDA loss in FY09 but management effortsinto consolidation of key group entities (Goricon was merged with Monocon) and closure of certainunviable facilities (Taiwan Brazil plants of Monocon were closed Czech plant of Hoffman was closed)coupled with recovery in demand has led to gradual improvement in profitability of companyrsquossubsidiaries We note that Monocon grouprsquos profitability has improved substantially during FY11-14with EBITDA CAGR of ~16 and improvement in marginsROE to 8512 in FY14 Hoffman grouphas also returned to profits although margins remain low IFGLrsquos acquisition in US of EI Ceramics in2010 has been rewarding and the company has performed consistently well post acquisition andachieved revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338 during FY11-14

Exhibit 17

Revenue trend for overseas subs Exhibit 18

EBITDA trend for overseas subs

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research

Exhibit 19 EBITDA margin has shown improvement Exhibit 20 ROE has moved up especially for EI Ceramics

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 107EI Ceramics - 328

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 16EI Ceramics - 376

70

89

59

85

139

159

137

161

7080

51 5030

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

119 120 87 120

112

191

158 162

7135

4336

30

50

70

90

110

130

150170

190

210

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

EBITDA has shownimprovement across alloverseas subsidiariesduring FY11-14

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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9IFGL Refractories Ltd

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth

EI Ceramics is doubling its capacity as utilizations on current capacity reached ~100 in FY14 EICeramics has been IFGLrsquos best overseas acquisition achieving revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338since acquisition (FY11-14) We expect revenueEBITDA CAGR of 23227 during FY14-17E asexpansion would be on-stream by Q1FY16E IFGL had spent ~Rs590mn for the purchase of EI and isexpected to achieve full payback in FY15E (less than 5 years) The capex for expansion of additional 80kpcsyear in EI is limited to Rs80mn and would be funded easily through internal accruals We note thatadditional capex would have the potential to generate ~Rs1000mn in revenues on completestabilisation (by FY17E) an asset turnover of more than 10x

Exhibit 21 EI Ceramics to double capacity by Q1FY16 Exhibit 22 Strong revenue and EBITDA CAGR ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings

We expect EI Ceramics to lead the growth in earnings from IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries basket We expectrevenue contribution of EI Ceramics in total overseas subs to increase to ~26 in FY17E from ~20 inFY14 while EBITDA contribution is expected to increase to 41 in FY17E from ~34 in FY14 Since EICeramics enjoys the best margins (~16) among IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries increase in share ofearnings from EI Ceramics is expected to lead to margin improvement for IFGL at a consolidated level

Exhibit 23

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY14 Exhibit 24

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 25

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY14 Exhibit 26

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

80000

80000

160000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E

8631012

1113

1447

1881

118 163 178 231 301

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn)

FY14-17E - CAGR

Revenue - 23EBITDA - 227

Monocon641

EI Ceramics

197

Hoffman161

Monocon607

EI Ceramics

261

Hoffman133

Monocon577

EI Ceramics

338

Hoffman 85

Monocon530

EI Ceramics

405

Hoffman 64

Capacity at EI Ceramicsto increase to 160k pcsyear by FY15-end

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 2: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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2IFGL Refractories Ltd

Table of Content

Expansion at Kandla to be the game changer for domestic operations 3

Capacity being doubled at IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL Kandla) 3

Substantial savings in freight expenses for exports from Kandla vis-agrave-vis Orissa 3

IEL enjoys higher margins due to SEZ benefits and strategic location 4

Higher utilization and lower exports to provide margin uptick at Orissa 5

Expansions by integrated steel mills provide domestic demand visibility 6

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround 7

Several strategic acquisitions in last decade for expanding reach and product basket 7

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved 8

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth 9

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings 9

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong 10

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex 10

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level 11

Financials 12

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations 12

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141 12

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity 13

Valuation ndash poised for rerating 14

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peers 14

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average 15

Key risks to our thesis 16

Company Background 17

Comments on recent quarterly results 18

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry 19

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures 19

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings 20

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR 21

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure 22

Financials (Cons) 23

Financials (Cons) - Historical 24

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Expansion at Kandla to be the game changer for domestic operations

Capacity being doubled at IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL Kandla)

IFGL is currently in the process of doubling the capacity of continuous casting refractories at itssubsidiary (51 stake) IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL) IEL started operations in FY13 (May 2012) with a capacityof 80k pcsyear and achieved sales volumes of ~64k pcs in FY14 We see sales volumes from IEL more

than doubling by FY17E to reach 136k pcs IFGL has spent ~Rs400mn on IEL so far and plans to spend~Rs60mn for the second phase of expansion (80k pcsyear) while the third phase of expansion wouldtake the capacity to 300k pcsyear at an additional capex of Rs140mn

Exhibit 1 Capacity expansion planned at IEL Kandla Exhibit 2 Sales volumes at IEL to double in 3 years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Substantial savings in freight expenses for exports from Kandla vis-agrave-vis Orissa

Exports account for 55+ share in revenues from IFGLrsquos standalone operations through its plant atKalunga Orissa and Europe accounts for ~65 of exports IEL specifically chose an SEZ in KandlaGujarat to enjoy the benefits of lower freight costs for exports (~US$700 lower freight on per containerbasis for shipment to Europe ndash see exhibit 3 below)

Exhibit 3

IFGL plants in India ndash Capacity and freight differential for exports

Source Company Centrum Research

80000

80000

160000

140000

300000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Phase 1 Phase 2 TotalCapacity

PotentialPhase 3

Potential Total

Capacity

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E FY17-18E

21148

64225

80000

112000

136000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Sales Volumes (pcs)

Odisha

Gujrat

Kalunga

Kandla

Capacity of IFGL ExportsKandla getting doubled

to 160k pcsyear byQ1FY16E

Kandla facility providescrucial freight savings forexports apart from otherSEZ benefits

IFGL Exports Ltd

Kandla Gujarat Products

IFGL

RefractoriesOrissa

CapacityCurrent

CapacityPost

Expansion

80000 300000Continuous casting ref(pcsyr)

360000

NA NA Slide gate ref (pcsyr) 300000

NA NAPurge plugs cast products(pcsyr)

116000

NA NA Unshaped (tpa) 24000

~50Kms Distance from port ~400Kms

2012 Plant set-up date 1990

FY14 Exports - Rs1883mn (~57 of sales)

UK 7

Europe(excl

UK) 65

Asia(excl

India)15

Americas6

Others7

Freight difference for shipment toEurope form Kandla Vs Odisha

US$container

Inland Freight difference 500Sea Freight difference 200

Total Freight advantage for IEL plant 700

FY14 Exports - Rs395mn (100 of sales)

UK 8

Europe(excl

UK) 79

Asia(excl

India)2

Americas4

Others8

3IFGL Refractories Ltd

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4IFGL Refractories Ltd

IEL enjoys higher margins due to SEZ benefits and strategic location

IEL enjoys much higher margins than its parentrsquos standalone operations (FY14 EBITDA margins stoodat 256 for IEL vs 139 for IFGL standalone) This is on account of various benefits like i) IEL beinglocated in an SEZ which has key advantages such as a) no duty on imported raw materials b) taxsavings on domestically procured raw materials and c) exemption from income tax for 5 years ii) portbased location of the plant (~50 kms) which helps in reducing inland freight and iii) proximity toexport customers (Europe amp Middle east) which helps in reducing sea freight as well as transit time andthus the debtor days With higher utilization on existing capacity and expansions we see sharp jumpin revenueEBITDA for IEL to Rs953mn257mn in FY17E (up ~150 from FY14) We note that IEL hasshown sharp jump in its operating profitability in FY14 which was just the second year of companyrsquosoperations and this demonstrates superior management quality and expertise in the refractorybusiness

Exhibit 4

IEL clocked EBITDA margin of ~26 in FY14 as first phase capacity stabilised

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Short payback and superior returns expected from IEL

We see extremely short payback period for IEL with full capex for expanded capacity to be recoveredby FY17E which implies payback of 34 years for the first phase and 1-2 years for next two phases Dueto attractive profitability profile of IEL on account of its strong logistics advantage we expect superiorreturns with ROEROCE of ~3626 in FY16E

Exhibit 5 Payback for full expansion by FY17E Exhibit 6 Return ratios of IEL to be strong

(Rs mn)Phase 1

(spent byFY14)

Phase 2 (tobe spent

in FY15E)

Phase 3(likely tobe spentin FY16-

17E)

Total(by FY17E)

Capex 410 60 130 600

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA 102 130 204 257

Cumulative EBITDA 102 232 435 693

Cumulative capex 410 470 600 600

Payback achieved (x) 02 05 07 12

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

90

399

518

755

953

-17

102 130204

257

256 250 270 270

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

(100)

100

300

500

700

900

1100

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Sales EBITDA Margin - RHS

179

252

358337

141

179

265 287

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

ROE - ROCE -

Margins at IEL are ~25well above IFGLrsquos otheroperations

Payback for IEL to beachieved before end ofFY17E

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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5IFGL Refractories Ltd

Orissa plant to capture domestic demand and reduce export share in sales

We expect IFGLrsquos flagship plant at Orissa (standalone operations) to capture increasing domesticdemand and gradually reduce the share of exports in total sales as export sales will continue to getshifted to IEL in coming years We see share of exports coming down to 42 in FY17E from 56 inFY14 and domestic sales increasing to 58 for standalone operations IFGL has shown smart revenueCAGR of ~17 at its standalone operations during FY10-14 led by better pricing weak rupeebenefitting exports revenue and improvement in capacity utilization but we expect revenue CAGR of67 during FY14-17E on account of limited room for higher volumes (particularly in continuouscasting refractories segment which is almost completely utilized) reduced share of exports goingforward and low pricing power due to increased competition

Exhibit 7

Exports share in total standalone sales to reduce from FY15E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Higher utilization and lower exports to provide margin uptick at Orissa

Though IFGL is currently running at near full utilization levels for continuous casting refractories at its

Orissa plant it has an opportunity to increase its utilization in other shaped products like slide gaterefractories purge plugs and cast products Also utilization in unshaped refractories is expected toimprove Lower share of exports would result in savings on freight and coupled with higher utilizationlead to lower fixed costs We see IFGLrsquos standalone margins improving by 150bps YoY to 153 inFY15E We expect margins to further improve to 158 by FY17E led by lower exports We note thatmargins have remained very volatile in the standalone operations due to pressure on raw materialcosts high dependence on exports and hence currency fluctuations and lacklustre demandenvironment We expect margin trajectory to remain more stable going ahead with rationalization ofsales in exports and domestic markets as well as overall improvement in demand environment

Exhibit 8 Capacity utilization at Orissa to improve Exhibit 9 Standalone margins expected to expand

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4847

50

44

50

54

5852

53

50

56

50

46

42

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Domestic Sales Export Sales

Domestic - share Exports - share

68

87

78

72

7780 82 84

34

49

65 64

58 6064 66

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Shaped Refractories Unshaped Refractories

291

196

348 342

450

534575

630

166

94

127

112

138

153 154 158

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA (Rs mn) Margin - RHS

IFGLrsquos flagship plant tofocus more on domesticmarkets and see marginimprovement

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6IFGL Refractories Ltd

European demand expected to be better on improving macros

Demand for refractories from European steel mills is expected to be better going forward due togradual pick up in steel production and improving macro situation (as is visible from the pick-up inGDP numbers) Since Europe (including UK) accounts for ~70 of IFGLrsquos exports from domesticoperations and ~50 of revenues on a consolidated basis (including overseas subsidiariesrsquo net sales)we expect IFGL to benefit from improving demand situation in Europe

Exhibit 10

Europe steel production picking up Exhibit 11

GDP in EU amp UK improving

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates CY14 nos annualised for 5MYTD Source Company Centrum Research

Expansions by integrated steel mills provide domestic demand visibility

We see good demand visibility in the domestic market as steel production is expected to pick up ledmainly by higher volumes from large steel mills We expect the share of large integrated steel mills torise to ~60 by FY17E from ~51 in FY14 led mainly by expansions and wide product range We haveconsidered a basket of players (SAIL Tata Steel JSW steel JSPL Essar RINL JSW Ispat) in large steelmills and see volume CAGR of ~12 from them as compared to 6 for the steel industry during FY14-17E IFGL derives ~65 of its domestic revenue from large steel mills and is expected to be a keybeneficiary of the gradual shift in domestic steel production to large steel mills from small mills

Exhibit 12 Steel production growth to pick up Exhibit 13 Led by higher volumes from large steel mills

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 14 Large mills share in steel production to rise Exhibit 15 Large mills to grow faster

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

2099 1969

1375

1732 1775

1412

16561759

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14

EU Production (MT)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

M a r - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

N o v - 0

8

M a r - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

N o v - 0

9

M a r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

N o v - 1

0

M a r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

M a r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

N o v - 1

2

M a r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

N o v - 1

3

M a r - 1 4

UK GDP EU GDP

686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

132

103

79

4050

6070

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

Steel Production - India YoY Growth

339 372 389

433482

539

610

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

SAIL Tata Steel JSW Steel JSPL Essar Steel RINL Ispat Inds

69 76

82 85 89 95

101

34 37 39 43 48 54 61

4949

48

51

54

57 60

40

45

50

55

60

65

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

( M T )

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

share of integrated mills - RHS

74

60

86

121

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CAGR (FY11-14) CAGR (FY14-17E)

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

Domestic steel production shifting tolarge steel mills therebyimproving demandoutlook for organisedrefractory producers

Steel productionand GDP improvingin Europe

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7IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround

Several strategic acquisitions in last decade for expanding reach and product basket

IFGL has made several overseas acquisitions in the last decade mainly aimed at achieving inorganicgrowth through entry into new markets expanding its product basket and getting access to newtechnologies

IFGL acquired Monocon group in 2005 at a cost of 95mn pounds (Rs560mn) with its plantslocated in Brazil Taiwan China UK and USA Monocon group provided IFGL with wide rangeproduct basket (from Lances Darts Monolithics amp Castables) and also gave access to key largesteel plants in Europe of steelmakers like Corus amp Arcelor Mittal

IFGL acquired Goricon group in 2006 at a cost of 11mn pounds (Rs70mn) and later merged it withMonocon as the companies had similar products and were competitors of each other

Hoffman ceramics was acquired in 2008 at a cost of 7mn euros for getting entry into foundries for

supply of consumables

IFGL acquired EI Ceramics in 2010 which has similar product basket as IFGLrsquos domestic operationsbut provided access to key markets in Americas Company acquired EI Ceramics with an eye on

future expansion as it had space to increase capacity by ~3x IFGL also acquired CUSCinternational in US (later merged with EI) which was providing ancillary services to EI includingprocessing of raw materials warehousing and packaging

Exhibit 16

Snapshot of overseas acquisitions

CompanyAcquired

Year ofacquisition

PurchaseCost

(Rs mn)

PlantLocations

Products Markets Comments

MonoconGroup

2005 560UK USChina

Refractory dartslances monolithics

UK EuropeChina

Services key customers in Europelike Corus Arcelor Brazil plantclosed and Taiwan plant shiftedto China

GoriconGroup

2006 70 UK USDarts lances and ladlepowder

Europe Merged into Monocon

HoffmanCeramics 2008 470 Germany

Refractory ceramicslike filters feeders etc Europe

Czech plant closed suppliesconsumables to foundries

EI Ceramics 2010 590 Ohio USContinuous castingrefractories

US CanadaMexico

Acquired to gain traction inAmerica market

Source Company Centrum Research

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8IFGL Refractories Ltd

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved

IFGL has faced several challenges in managing the profitability and operations of its overseasacquisitions due to global economic crisis in CY08 which impacted steel production in US amp Europevery severely Both Monocon and Hoffman group had EBITDA loss in FY09 but management effortsinto consolidation of key group entities (Goricon was merged with Monocon) and closure of certainunviable facilities (Taiwan Brazil plants of Monocon were closed Czech plant of Hoffman was closed)coupled with recovery in demand has led to gradual improvement in profitability of companyrsquossubsidiaries We note that Monocon grouprsquos profitability has improved substantially during FY11-14with EBITDA CAGR of ~16 and improvement in marginsROE to 8512 in FY14 Hoffman grouphas also returned to profits although margins remain low IFGLrsquos acquisition in US of EI Ceramics in2010 has been rewarding and the company has performed consistently well post acquisition andachieved revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338 during FY11-14

Exhibit 17

Revenue trend for overseas subs Exhibit 18

EBITDA trend for overseas subs

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research

Exhibit 19 EBITDA margin has shown improvement Exhibit 20 ROE has moved up especially for EI Ceramics

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 107EI Ceramics - 328

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 16EI Ceramics - 376

70

89

59

85

139

159

137

161

7080

51 5030

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

119 120 87 120

112

191

158 162

7135

4336

30

50

70

90

110

130

150170

190

210

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

EBITDA has shownimprovement across alloverseas subsidiariesduring FY11-14

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9IFGL Refractories Ltd

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth

EI Ceramics is doubling its capacity as utilizations on current capacity reached ~100 in FY14 EICeramics has been IFGLrsquos best overseas acquisition achieving revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338since acquisition (FY11-14) We expect revenueEBITDA CAGR of 23227 during FY14-17E asexpansion would be on-stream by Q1FY16E IFGL had spent ~Rs590mn for the purchase of EI and isexpected to achieve full payback in FY15E (less than 5 years) The capex for expansion of additional 80kpcsyear in EI is limited to Rs80mn and would be funded easily through internal accruals We note thatadditional capex would have the potential to generate ~Rs1000mn in revenues on completestabilisation (by FY17E) an asset turnover of more than 10x

Exhibit 21 EI Ceramics to double capacity by Q1FY16 Exhibit 22 Strong revenue and EBITDA CAGR ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings

We expect EI Ceramics to lead the growth in earnings from IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries basket We expectrevenue contribution of EI Ceramics in total overseas subs to increase to ~26 in FY17E from ~20 inFY14 while EBITDA contribution is expected to increase to 41 in FY17E from ~34 in FY14 Since EICeramics enjoys the best margins (~16) among IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries increase in share ofearnings from EI Ceramics is expected to lead to margin improvement for IFGL at a consolidated level

Exhibit 23

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY14 Exhibit 24

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 25

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY14 Exhibit 26

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

80000

80000

160000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E

8631012

1113

1447

1881

118 163 178 231 301

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn)

FY14-17E - CAGR

Revenue - 23EBITDA - 227

Monocon641

EI Ceramics

197

Hoffman161

Monocon607

EI Ceramics

261

Hoffman133

Monocon577

EI Ceramics

338

Hoffman 85

Monocon530

EI Ceramics

405

Hoffman 64

Capacity at EI Ceramicsto increase to 160k pcsyear by FY15-end

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 3: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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Expansion at Kandla to be the game changer for domestic operations

Capacity being doubled at IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL Kandla)

IFGL is currently in the process of doubling the capacity of continuous casting refractories at itssubsidiary (51 stake) IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL) IEL started operations in FY13 (May 2012) with a capacityof 80k pcsyear and achieved sales volumes of ~64k pcs in FY14 We see sales volumes from IEL more

than doubling by FY17E to reach 136k pcs IFGL has spent ~Rs400mn on IEL so far and plans to spend~Rs60mn for the second phase of expansion (80k pcsyear) while the third phase of expansion wouldtake the capacity to 300k pcsyear at an additional capex of Rs140mn

Exhibit 1 Capacity expansion planned at IEL Kandla Exhibit 2 Sales volumes at IEL to double in 3 years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Substantial savings in freight expenses for exports from Kandla vis-agrave-vis Orissa

Exports account for 55+ share in revenues from IFGLrsquos standalone operations through its plant atKalunga Orissa and Europe accounts for ~65 of exports IEL specifically chose an SEZ in KandlaGujarat to enjoy the benefits of lower freight costs for exports (~US$700 lower freight on per containerbasis for shipment to Europe ndash see exhibit 3 below)

Exhibit 3

IFGL plants in India ndash Capacity and freight differential for exports

Source Company Centrum Research

80000

80000

160000

140000

300000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Phase 1 Phase 2 TotalCapacity

PotentialPhase 3

Potential Total

Capacity

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E FY17-18E

21148

64225

80000

112000

136000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Sales Volumes (pcs)

Odisha

Gujrat

Kalunga

Kandla

Capacity of IFGL ExportsKandla getting doubled

to 160k pcsyear byQ1FY16E

Kandla facility providescrucial freight savings forexports apart from otherSEZ benefits

IFGL Exports Ltd

Kandla Gujarat Products

IFGL

RefractoriesOrissa

CapacityCurrent

CapacityPost

Expansion

80000 300000Continuous casting ref(pcsyr)

360000

NA NA Slide gate ref (pcsyr) 300000

NA NAPurge plugs cast products(pcsyr)

116000

NA NA Unshaped (tpa) 24000

~50Kms Distance from port ~400Kms

2012 Plant set-up date 1990

FY14 Exports - Rs1883mn (~57 of sales)

UK 7

Europe(excl

UK) 65

Asia(excl

India)15

Americas6

Others7

Freight difference for shipment toEurope form Kandla Vs Odisha

US$container

Inland Freight difference 500Sea Freight difference 200

Total Freight advantage for IEL plant 700

FY14 Exports - Rs395mn (100 of sales)

UK 8

Europe(excl

UK) 79

Asia(excl

India)2

Americas4

Others8

3IFGL Refractories Ltd

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4IFGL Refractories Ltd

IEL enjoys higher margins due to SEZ benefits and strategic location

IEL enjoys much higher margins than its parentrsquos standalone operations (FY14 EBITDA margins stoodat 256 for IEL vs 139 for IFGL standalone) This is on account of various benefits like i) IEL beinglocated in an SEZ which has key advantages such as a) no duty on imported raw materials b) taxsavings on domestically procured raw materials and c) exemption from income tax for 5 years ii) portbased location of the plant (~50 kms) which helps in reducing inland freight and iii) proximity toexport customers (Europe amp Middle east) which helps in reducing sea freight as well as transit time andthus the debtor days With higher utilization on existing capacity and expansions we see sharp jumpin revenueEBITDA for IEL to Rs953mn257mn in FY17E (up ~150 from FY14) We note that IEL hasshown sharp jump in its operating profitability in FY14 which was just the second year of companyrsquosoperations and this demonstrates superior management quality and expertise in the refractorybusiness

Exhibit 4

IEL clocked EBITDA margin of ~26 in FY14 as first phase capacity stabilised

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Short payback and superior returns expected from IEL

We see extremely short payback period for IEL with full capex for expanded capacity to be recoveredby FY17E which implies payback of 34 years for the first phase and 1-2 years for next two phases Dueto attractive profitability profile of IEL on account of its strong logistics advantage we expect superiorreturns with ROEROCE of ~3626 in FY16E

Exhibit 5 Payback for full expansion by FY17E Exhibit 6 Return ratios of IEL to be strong

(Rs mn)Phase 1

(spent byFY14)

Phase 2 (tobe spent

in FY15E)

Phase 3(likely tobe spentin FY16-

17E)

Total(by FY17E)

Capex 410 60 130 600

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA 102 130 204 257

Cumulative EBITDA 102 232 435 693

Cumulative capex 410 470 600 600

Payback achieved (x) 02 05 07 12

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

90

399

518

755

953

-17

102 130204

257

256 250 270 270

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

(100)

100

300

500

700

900

1100

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Sales EBITDA Margin - RHS

179

252

358337

141

179

265 287

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

ROE - ROCE -

Margins at IEL are ~25well above IFGLrsquos otheroperations

Payback for IEL to beachieved before end ofFY17E

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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5IFGL Refractories Ltd

Orissa plant to capture domestic demand and reduce export share in sales

We expect IFGLrsquos flagship plant at Orissa (standalone operations) to capture increasing domesticdemand and gradually reduce the share of exports in total sales as export sales will continue to getshifted to IEL in coming years We see share of exports coming down to 42 in FY17E from 56 inFY14 and domestic sales increasing to 58 for standalone operations IFGL has shown smart revenueCAGR of ~17 at its standalone operations during FY10-14 led by better pricing weak rupeebenefitting exports revenue and improvement in capacity utilization but we expect revenue CAGR of67 during FY14-17E on account of limited room for higher volumes (particularly in continuouscasting refractories segment which is almost completely utilized) reduced share of exports goingforward and low pricing power due to increased competition

Exhibit 7

Exports share in total standalone sales to reduce from FY15E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Higher utilization and lower exports to provide margin uptick at Orissa

Though IFGL is currently running at near full utilization levels for continuous casting refractories at its

Orissa plant it has an opportunity to increase its utilization in other shaped products like slide gaterefractories purge plugs and cast products Also utilization in unshaped refractories is expected toimprove Lower share of exports would result in savings on freight and coupled with higher utilizationlead to lower fixed costs We see IFGLrsquos standalone margins improving by 150bps YoY to 153 inFY15E We expect margins to further improve to 158 by FY17E led by lower exports We note thatmargins have remained very volatile in the standalone operations due to pressure on raw materialcosts high dependence on exports and hence currency fluctuations and lacklustre demandenvironment We expect margin trajectory to remain more stable going ahead with rationalization ofsales in exports and domestic markets as well as overall improvement in demand environment

Exhibit 8 Capacity utilization at Orissa to improve Exhibit 9 Standalone margins expected to expand

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4847

50

44

50

54

5852

53

50

56

50

46

42

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Domestic Sales Export Sales

Domestic - share Exports - share

68

87

78

72

7780 82 84

34

49

65 64

58 6064 66

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Shaped Refractories Unshaped Refractories

291

196

348 342

450

534575

630

166

94

127

112

138

153 154 158

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA (Rs mn) Margin - RHS

IFGLrsquos flagship plant tofocus more on domesticmarkets and see marginimprovement

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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6IFGL Refractories Ltd

European demand expected to be better on improving macros

Demand for refractories from European steel mills is expected to be better going forward due togradual pick up in steel production and improving macro situation (as is visible from the pick-up inGDP numbers) Since Europe (including UK) accounts for ~70 of IFGLrsquos exports from domesticoperations and ~50 of revenues on a consolidated basis (including overseas subsidiariesrsquo net sales)we expect IFGL to benefit from improving demand situation in Europe

Exhibit 10

Europe steel production picking up Exhibit 11

GDP in EU amp UK improving

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates CY14 nos annualised for 5MYTD Source Company Centrum Research

Expansions by integrated steel mills provide domestic demand visibility

We see good demand visibility in the domestic market as steel production is expected to pick up ledmainly by higher volumes from large steel mills We expect the share of large integrated steel mills torise to ~60 by FY17E from ~51 in FY14 led mainly by expansions and wide product range We haveconsidered a basket of players (SAIL Tata Steel JSW steel JSPL Essar RINL JSW Ispat) in large steelmills and see volume CAGR of ~12 from them as compared to 6 for the steel industry during FY14-17E IFGL derives ~65 of its domestic revenue from large steel mills and is expected to be a keybeneficiary of the gradual shift in domestic steel production to large steel mills from small mills

Exhibit 12 Steel production growth to pick up Exhibit 13 Led by higher volumes from large steel mills

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 14 Large mills share in steel production to rise Exhibit 15 Large mills to grow faster

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

2099 1969

1375

1732 1775

1412

16561759

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14

EU Production (MT)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

M a r - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

N o v - 0

8

M a r - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

N o v - 0

9

M a r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

N o v - 1

0

M a r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

M a r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

N o v - 1

2

M a r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

N o v - 1

3

M a r - 1 4

UK GDP EU GDP

686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

132

103

79

4050

6070

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

Steel Production - India YoY Growth

339 372 389

433482

539

610

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

SAIL Tata Steel JSW Steel JSPL Essar Steel RINL Ispat Inds

69 76

82 85 89 95

101

34 37 39 43 48 54 61

4949

48

51

54

57 60

40

45

50

55

60

65

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

( M T )

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

share of integrated mills - RHS

74

60

86

121

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CAGR (FY11-14) CAGR (FY14-17E)

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

Domestic steel production shifting tolarge steel mills therebyimproving demandoutlook for organisedrefractory producers

Steel productionand GDP improvingin Europe

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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7IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround

Several strategic acquisitions in last decade for expanding reach and product basket

IFGL has made several overseas acquisitions in the last decade mainly aimed at achieving inorganicgrowth through entry into new markets expanding its product basket and getting access to newtechnologies

IFGL acquired Monocon group in 2005 at a cost of 95mn pounds (Rs560mn) with its plantslocated in Brazil Taiwan China UK and USA Monocon group provided IFGL with wide rangeproduct basket (from Lances Darts Monolithics amp Castables) and also gave access to key largesteel plants in Europe of steelmakers like Corus amp Arcelor Mittal

IFGL acquired Goricon group in 2006 at a cost of 11mn pounds (Rs70mn) and later merged it withMonocon as the companies had similar products and were competitors of each other

Hoffman ceramics was acquired in 2008 at a cost of 7mn euros for getting entry into foundries for

supply of consumables

IFGL acquired EI Ceramics in 2010 which has similar product basket as IFGLrsquos domestic operationsbut provided access to key markets in Americas Company acquired EI Ceramics with an eye on

future expansion as it had space to increase capacity by ~3x IFGL also acquired CUSCinternational in US (later merged with EI) which was providing ancillary services to EI includingprocessing of raw materials warehousing and packaging

Exhibit 16

Snapshot of overseas acquisitions

CompanyAcquired

Year ofacquisition

PurchaseCost

(Rs mn)

PlantLocations

Products Markets Comments

MonoconGroup

2005 560UK USChina

Refractory dartslances monolithics

UK EuropeChina

Services key customers in Europelike Corus Arcelor Brazil plantclosed and Taiwan plant shiftedto China

GoriconGroup

2006 70 UK USDarts lances and ladlepowder

Europe Merged into Monocon

HoffmanCeramics 2008 470 Germany

Refractory ceramicslike filters feeders etc Europe

Czech plant closed suppliesconsumables to foundries

EI Ceramics 2010 590 Ohio USContinuous castingrefractories

US CanadaMexico

Acquired to gain traction inAmerica market

Source Company Centrum Research

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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8IFGL Refractories Ltd

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved

IFGL has faced several challenges in managing the profitability and operations of its overseasacquisitions due to global economic crisis in CY08 which impacted steel production in US amp Europevery severely Both Monocon and Hoffman group had EBITDA loss in FY09 but management effortsinto consolidation of key group entities (Goricon was merged with Monocon) and closure of certainunviable facilities (Taiwan Brazil plants of Monocon were closed Czech plant of Hoffman was closed)coupled with recovery in demand has led to gradual improvement in profitability of companyrsquossubsidiaries We note that Monocon grouprsquos profitability has improved substantially during FY11-14with EBITDA CAGR of ~16 and improvement in marginsROE to 8512 in FY14 Hoffman grouphas also returned to profits although margins remain low IFGLrsquos acquisition in US of EI Ceramics in2010 has been rewarding and the company has performed consistently well post acquisition andachieved revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338 during FY11-14

Exhibit 17

Revenue trend for overseas subs Exhibit 18

EBITDA trend for overseas subs

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research

Exhibit 19 EBITDA margin has shown improvement Exhibit 20 ROE has moved up especially for EI Ceramics

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 107EI Ceramics - 328

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 16EI Ceramics - 376

70

89

59

85

139

159

137

161

7080

51 5030

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

119 120 87 120

112

191

158 162

7135

4336

30

50

70

90

110

130

150170

190

210

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

EBITDA has shownimprovement across alloverseas subsidiariesduring FY11-14

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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9IFGL Refractories Ltd

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth

EI Ceramics is doubling its capacity as utilizations on current capacity reached ~100 in FY14 EICeramics has been IFGLrsquos best overseas acquisition achieving revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338since acquisition (FY11-14) We expect revenueEBITDA CAGR of 23227 during FY14-17E asexpansion would be on-stream by Q1FY16E IFGL had spent ~Rs590mn for the purchase of EI and isexpected to achieve full payback in FY15E (less than 5 years) The capex for expansion of additional 80kpcsyear in EI is limited to Rs80mn and would be funded easily through internal accruals We note thatadditional capex would have the potential to generate ~Rs1000mn in revenues on completestabilisation (by FY17E) an asset turnover of more than 10x

Exhibit 21 EI Ceramics to double capacity by Q1FY16 Exhibit 22 Strong revenue and EBITDA CAGR ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings

We expect EI Ceramics to lead the growth in earnings from IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries basket We expectrevenue contribution of EI Ceramics in total overseas subs to increase to ~26 in FY17E from ~20 inFY14 while EBITDA contribution is expected to increase to 41 in FY17E from ~34 in FY14 Since EICeramics enjoys the best margins (~16) among IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries increase in share ofearnings from EI Ceramics is expected to lead to margin improvement for IFGL at a consolidated level

Exhibit 23

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY14 Exhibit 24

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 25

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY14 Exhibit 26

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

80000

80000

160000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E

8631012

1113

1447

1881

118 163 178 231 301

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn)

FY14-17E - CAGR

Revenue - 23EBITDA - 227

Monocon641

EI Ceramics

197

Hoffman161

Monocon607

EI Ceramics

261

Hoffman133

Monocon577

EI Ceramics

338

Hoffman 85

Monocon530

EI Ceramics

405

Hoffman 64

Capacity at EI Ceramicsto increase to 160k pcsyear by FY15-end

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 4: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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4IFGL Refractories Ltd

IEL enjoys higher margins due to SEZ benefits and strategic location

IEL enjoys much higher margins than its parentrsquos standalone operations (FY14 EBITDA margins stoodat 256 for IEL vs 139 for IFGL standalone) This is on account of various benefits like i) IEL beinglocated in an SEZ which has key advantages such as a) no duty on imported raw materials b) taxsavings on domestically procured raw materials and c) exemption from income tax for 5 years ii) portbased location of the plant (~50 kms) which helps in reducing inland freight and iii) proximity toexport customers (Europe amp Middle east) which helps in reducing sea freight as well as transit time andthus the debtor days With higher utilization on existing capacity and expansions we see sharp jumpin revenueEBITDA for IEL to Rs953mn257mn in FY17E (up ~150 from FY14) We note that IEL hasshown sharp jump in its operating profitability in FY14 which was just the second year of companyrsquosoperations and this demonstrates superior management quality and expertise in the refractorybusiness

Exhibit 4

IEL clocked EBITDA margin of ~26 in FY14 as first phase capacity stabilised

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Short payback and superior returns expected from IEL

We see extremely short payback period for IEL with full capex for expanded capacity to be recoveredby FY17E which implies payback of 34 years for the first phase and 1-2 years for next two phases Dueto attractive profitability profile of IEL on account of its strong logistics advantage we expect superiorreturns with ROEROCE of ~3626 in FY16E

Exhibit 5 Payback for full expansion by FY17E Exhibit 6 Return ratios of IEL to be strong

(Rs mn)Phase 1

(spent byFY14)

Phase 2 (tobe spent

in FY15E)

Phase 3(likely tobe spentin FY16-

17E)

Total(by FY17E)

Capex 410 60 130 600

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA 102 130 204 257

Cumulative EBITDA 102 232 435 693

Cumulative capex 410 470 600 600

Payback achieved (x) 02 05 07 12

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

90

399

518

755

953

-17

102 130204

257

256 250 270 270

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

(100)

100

300

500

700

900

1100

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Sales EBITDA Margin - RHS

179

252

358337

141

179

265 287

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

ROE - ROCE -

Margins at IEL are ~25well above IFGLrsquos otheroperations

Payback for IEL to beachieved before end ofFY17E

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5IFGL Refractories Ltd

Orissa plant to capture domestic demand and reduce export share in sales

We expect IFGLrsquos flagship plant at Orissa (standalone operations) to capture increasing domesticdemand and gradually reduce the share of exports in total sales as export sales will continue to getshifted to IEL in coming years We see share of exports coming down to 42 in FY17E from 56 inFY14 and domestic sales increasing to 58 for standalone operations IFGL has shown smart revenueCAGR of ~17 at its standalone operations during FY10-14 led by better pricing weak rupeebenefitting exports revenue and improvement in capacity utilization but we expect revenue CAGR of67 during FY14-17E on account of limited room for higher volumes (particularly in continuouscasting refractories segment which is almost completely utilized) reduced share of exports goingforward and low pricing power due to increased competition

Exhibit 7

Exports share in total standalone sales to reduce from FY15E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Higher utilization and lower exports to provide margin uptick at Orissa

Though IFGL is currently running at near full utilization levels for continuous casting refractories at its

Orissa plant it has an opportunity to increase its utilization in other shaped products like slide gaterefractories purge plugs and cast products Also utilization in unshaped refractories is expected toimprove Lower share of exports would result in savings on freight and coupled with higher utilizationlead to lower fixed costs We see IFGLrsquos standalone margins improving by 150bps YoY to 153 inFY15E We expect margins to further improve to 158 by FY17E led by lower exports We note thatmargins have remained very volatile in the standalone operations due to pressure on raw materialcosts high dependence on exports and hence currency fluctuations and lacklustre demandenvironment We expect margin trajectory to remain more stable going ahead with rationalization ofsales in exports and domestic markets as well as overall improvement in demand environment

Exhibit 8 Capacity utilization at Orissa to improve Exhibit 9 Standalone margins expected to expand

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4847

50

44

50

54

5852

53

50

56

50

46

42

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Domestic Sales Export Sales

Domestic - share Exports - share

68

87

78

72

7780 82 84

34

49

65 64

58 6064 66

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Shaped Refractories Unshaped Refractories

291

196

348 342

450

534575

630

166

94

127

112

138

153 154 158

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA (Rs mn) Margin - RHS

IFGLrsquos flagship plant tofocus more on domesticmarkets and see marginimprovement

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6IFGL Refractories Ltd

European demand expected to be better on improving macros

Demand for refractories from European steel mills is expected to be better going forward due togradual pick up in steel production and improving macro situation (as is visible from the pick-up inGDP numbers) Since Europe (including UK) accounts for ~70 of IFGLrsquos exports from domesticoperations and ~50 of revenues on a consolidated basis (including overseas subsidiariesrsquo net sales)we expect IFGL to benefit from improving demand situation in Europe

Exhibit 10

Europe steel production picking up Exhibit 11

GDP in EU amp UK improving

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates CY14 nos annualised for 5MYTD Source Company Centrum Research

Expansions by integrated steel mills provide domestic demand visibility

We see good demand visibility in the domestic market as steel production is expected to pick up ledmainly by higher volumes from large steel mills We expect the share of large integrated steel mills torise to ~60 by FY17E from ~51 in FY14 led mainly by expansions and wide product range We haveconsidered a basket of players (SAIL Tata Steel JSW steel JSPL Essar RINL JSW Ispat) in large steelmills and see volume CAGR of ~12 from them as compared to 6 for the steel industry during FY14-17E IFGL derives ~65 of its domestic revenue from large steel mills and is expected to be a keybeneficiary of the gradual shift in domestic steel production to large steel mills from small mills

Exhibit 12 Steel production growth to pick up Exhibit 13 Led by higher volumes from large steel mills

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 14 Large mills share in steel production to rise Exhibit 15 Large mills to grow faster

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

2099 1969

1375

1732 1775

1412

16561759

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14

EU Production (MT)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

M a r - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

N o v - 0

8

M a r - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

N o v - 0

9

M a r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

N o v - 1

0

M a r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

M a r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

N o v - 1

2

M a r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

N o v - 1

3

M a r - 1 4

UK GDP EU GDP

686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

132

103

79

4050

6070

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

Steel Production - India YoY Growth

339 372 389

433482

539

610

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

SAIL Tata Steel JSW Steel JSPL Essar Steel RINL Ispat Inds

69 76

82 85 89 95

101

34 37 39 43 48 54 61

4949

48

51

54

57 60

40

45

50

55

60

65

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

( M T )

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

share of integrated mills - RHS

74

60

86

121

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CAGR (FY11-14) CAGR (FY14-17E)

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

Domestic steel production shifting tolarge steel mills therebyimproving demandoutlook for organisedrefractory producers

Steel productionand GDP improvingin Europe

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7IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround

Several strategic acquisitions in last decade for expanding reach and product basket

IFGL has made several overseas acquisitions in the last decade mainly aimed at achieving inorganicgrowth through entry into new markets expanding its product basket and getting access to newtechnologies

IFGL acquired Monocon group in 2005 at a cost of 95mn pounds (Rs560mn) with its plantslocated in Brazil Taiwan China UK and USA Monocon group provided IFGL with wide rangeproduct basket (from Lances Darts Monolithics amp Castables) and also gave access to key largesteel plants in Europe of steelmakers like Corus amp Arcelor Mittal

IFGL acquired Goricon group in 2006 at a cost of 11mn pounds (Rs70mn) and later merged it withMonocon as the companies had similar products and were competitors of each other

Hoffman ceramics was acquired in 2008 at a cost of 7mn euros for getting entry into foundries for

supply of consumables

IFGL acquired EI Ceramics in 2010 which has similar product basket as IFGLrsquos domestic operationsbut provided access to key markets in Americas Company acquired EI Ceramics with an eye on

future expansion as it had space to increase capacity by ~3x IFGL also acquired CUSCinternational in US (later merged with EI) which was providing ancillary services to EI includingprocessing of raw materials warehousing and packaging

Exhibit 16

Snapshot of overseas acquisitions

CompanyAcquired

Year ofacquisition

PurchaseCost

(Rs mn)

PlantLocations

Products Markets Comments

MonoconGroup

2005 560UK USChina

Refractory dartslances monolithics

UK EuropeChina

Services key customers in Europelike Corus Arcelor Brazil plantclosed and Taiwan plant shiftedto China

GoriconGroup

2006 70 UK USDarts lances and ladlepowder

Europe Merged into Monocon

HoffmanCeramics 2008 470 Germany

Refractory ceramicslike filters feeders etc Europe

Czech plant closed suppliesconsumables to foundries

EI Ceramics 2010 590 Ohio USContinuous castingrefractories

US CanadaMexico

Acquired to gain traction inAmerica market

Source Company Centrum Research

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8IFGL Refractories Ltd

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved

IFGL has faced several challenges in managing the profitability and operations of its overseasacquisitions due to global economic crisis in CY08 which impacted steel production in US amp Europevery severely Both Monocon and Hoffman group had EBITDA loss in FY09 but management effortsinto consolidation of key group entities (Goricon was merged with Monocon) and closure of certainunviable facilities (Taiwan Brazil plants of Monocon were closed Czech plant of Hoffman was closed)coupled with recovery in demand has led to gradual improvement in profitability of companyrsquossubsidiaries We note that Monocon grouprsquos profitability has improved substantially during FY11-14with EBITDA CAGR of ~16 and improvement in marginsROE to 8512 in FY14 Hoffman grouphas also returned to profits although margins remain low IFGLrsquos acquisition in US of EI Ceramics in2010 has been rewarding and the company has performed consistently well post acquisition andachieved revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338 during FY11-14

Exhibit 17

Revenue trend for overseas subs Exhibit 18

EBITDA trend for overseas subs

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research

Exhibit 19 EBITDA margin has shown improvement Exhibit 20 ROE has moved up especially for EI Ceramics

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 107EI Ceramics - 328

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 16EI Ceramics - 376

70

89

59

85

139

159

137

161

7080

51 5030

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

119 120 87 120

112

191

158 162

7135

4336

30

50

70

90

110

130

150170

190

210

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

EBITDA has shownimprovement across alloverseas subsidiariesduring FY11-14

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9IFGL Refractories Ltd

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth

EI Ceramics is doubling its capacity as utilizations on current capacity reached ~100 in FY14 EICeramics has been IFGLrsquos best overseas acquisition achieving revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338since acquisition (FY11-14) We expect revenueEBITDA CAGR of 23227 during FY14-17E asexpansion would be on-stream by Q1FY16E IFGL had spent ~Rs590mn for the purchase of EI and isexpected to achieve full payback in FY15E (less than 5 years) The capex for expansion of additional 80kpcsyear in EI is limited to Rs80mn and would be funded easily through internal accruals We note thatadditional capex would have the potential to generate ~Rs1000mn in revenues on completestabilisation (by FY17E) an asset turnover of more than 10x

Exhibit 21 EI Ceramics to double capacity by Q1FY16 Exhibit 22 Strong revenue and EBITDA CAGR ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings

We expect EI Ceramics to lead the growth in earnings from IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries basket We expectrevenue contribution of EI Ceramics in total overseas subs to increase to ~26 in FY17E from ~20 inFY14 while EBITDA contribution is expected to increase to 41 in FY17E from ~34 in FY14 Since EICeramics enjoys the best margins (~16) among IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries increase in share ofearnings from EI Ceramics is expected to lead to margin improvement for IFGL at a consolidated level

Exhibit 23

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY14 Exhibit 24

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 25

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY14 Exhibit 26

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

80000

80000

160000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E

8631012

1113

1447

1881

118 163 178 231 301

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn)

FY14-17E - CAGR

Revenue - 23EBITDA - 227

Monocon641

EI Ceramics

197

Hoffman161

Monocon607

EI Ceramics

261

Hoffman133

Monocon577

EI Ceramics

338

Hoffman 85

Monocon530

EI Ceramics

405

Hoffman 64

Capacity at EI Ceramicsto increase to 160k pcsyear by FY15-end

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 5: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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5IFGL Refractories Ltd

Orissa plant to capture domestic demand and reduce export share in sales

We expect IFGLrsquos flagship plant at Orissa (standalone operations) to capture increasing domesticdemand and gradually reduce the share of exports in total sales as export sales will continue to getshifted to IEL in coming years We see share of exports coming down to 42 in FY17E from 56 inFY14 and domestic sales increasing to 58 for standalone operations IFGL has shown smart revenueCAGR of ~17 at its standalone operations during FY10-14 led by better pricing weak rupeebenefitting exports revenue and improvement in capacity utilization but we expect revenue CAGR of67 during FY14-17E on account of limited room for higher volumes (particularly in continuouscasting refractories segment which is almost completely utilized) reduced share of exports goingforward and low pricing power due to increased competition

Exhibit 7

Exports share in total standalone sales to reduce from FY15E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Higher utilization and lower exports to provide margin uptick at Orissa

Though IFGL is currently running at near full utilization levels for continuous casting refractories at its

Orissa plant it has an opportunity to increase its utilization in other shaped products like slide gaterefractories purge plugs and cast products Also utilization in unshaped refractories is expected toimprove Lower share of exports would result in savings on freight and coupled with higher utilizationlead to lower fixed costs We see IFGLrsquos standalone margins improving by 150bps YoY to 153 inFY15E We expect margins to further improve to 158 by FY17E led by lower exports We note thatmargins have remained very volatile in the standalone operations due to pressure on raw materialcosts high dependence on exports and hence currency fluctuations and lacklustre demandenvironment We expect margin trajectory to remain more stable going ahead with rationalization ofsales in exports and domestic markets as well as overall improvement in demand environment

Exhibit 8 Capacity utilization at Orissa to improve Exhibit 9 Standalone margins expected to expand

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4847

50

44

50

54

5852

53

50

56

50

46

42

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Domestic Sales Export Sales

Domestic - share Exports - share

68

87

78

72

7780 82 84

34

49

65 64

58 6064 66

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Shaped Refractories Unshaped Refractories

291

196

348 342

450

534575

630

166

94

127

112

138

153 154 158

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA (Rs mn) Margin - RHS

IFGLrsquos flagship plant tofocus more on domesticmarkets and see marginimprovement

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6IFGL Refractories Ltd

European demand expected to be better on improving macros

Demand for refractories from European steel mills is expected to be better going forward due togradual pick up in steel production and improving macro situation (as is visible from the pick-up inGDP numbers) Since Europe (including UK) accounts for ~70 of IFGLrsquos exports from domesticoperations and ~50 of revenues on a consolidated basis (including overseas subsidiariesrsquo net sales)we expect IFGL to benefit from improving demand situation in Europe

Exhibit 10

Europe steel production picking up Exhibit 11

GDP in EU amp UK improving

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates CY14 nos annualised for 5MYTD Source Company Centrum Research

Expansions by integrated steel mills provide domestic demand visibility

We see good demand visibility in the domestic market as steel production is expected to pick up ledmainly by higher volumes from large steel mills We expect the share of large integrated steel mills torise to ~60 by FY17E from ~51 in FY14 led mainly by expansions and wide product range We haveconsidered a basket of players (SAIL Tata Steel JSW steel JSPL Essar RINL JSW Ispat) in large steelmills and see volume CAGR of ~12 from them as compared to 6 for the steel industry during FY14-17E IFGL derives ~65 of its domestic revenue from large steel mills and is expected to be a keybeneficiary of the gradual shift in domestic steel production to large steel mills from small mills

Exhibit 12 Steel production growth to pick up Exhibit 13 Led by higher volumes from large steel mills

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 14 Large mills share in steel production to rise Exhibit 15 Large mills to grow faster

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

2099 1969

1375

1732 1775

1412

16561759

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14

EU Production (MT)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

M a r - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

N o v - 0

8

M a r - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

N o v - 0

9

M a r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

N o v - 1

0

M a r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

M a r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

N o v - 1

2

M a r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

N o v - 1

3

M a r - 1 4

UK GDP EU GDP

686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

132

103

79

4050

6070

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

Steel Production - India YoY Growth

339 372 389

433482

539

610

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

SAIL Tata Steel JSW Steel JSPL Essar Steel RINL Ispat Inds

69 76

82 85 89 95

101

34 37 39 43 48 54 61

4949

48

51

54

57 60

40

45

50

55

60

65

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

( M T )

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

share of integrated mills - RHS

74

60

86

121

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CAGR (FY11-14) CAGR (FY14-17E)

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

Domestic steel production shifting tolarge steel mills therebyimproving demandoutlook for organisedrefractory producers

Steel productionand GDP improvingin Europe

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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7IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround

Several strategic acquisitions in last decade for expanding reach and product basket

IFGL has made several overseas acquisitions in the last decade mainly aimed at achieving inorganicgrowth through entry into new markets expanding its product basket and getting access to newtechnologies

IFGL acquired Monocon group in 2005 at a cost of 95mn pounds (Rs560mn) with its plantslocated in Brazil Taiwan China UK and USA Monocon group provided IFGL with wide rangeproduct basket (from Lances Darts Monolithics amp Castables) and also gave access to key largesteel plants in Europe of steelmakers like Corus amp Arcelor Mittal

IFGL acquired Goricon group in 2006 at a cost of 11mn pounds (Rs70mn) and later merged it withMonocon as the companies had similar products and were competitors of each other

Hoffman ceramics was acquired in 2008 at a cost of 7mn euros for getting entry into foundries for

supply of consumables

IFGL acquired EI Ceramics in 2010 which has similar product basket as IFGLrsquos domestic operationsbut provided access to key markets in Americas Company acquired EI Ceramics with an eye on

future expansion as it had space to increase capacity by ~3x IFGL also acquired CUSCinternational in US (later merged with EI) which was providing ancillary services to EI includingprocessing of raw materials warehousing and packaging

Exhibit 16

Snapshot of overseas acquisitions

CompanyAcquired

Year ofacquisition

PurchaseCost

(Rs mn)

PlantLocations

Products Markets Comments

MonoconGroup

2005 560UK USChina

Refractory dartslances monolithics

UK EuropeChina

Services key customers in Europelike Corus Arcelor Brazil plantclosed and Taiwan plant shiftedto China

GoriconGroup

2006 70 UK USDarts lances and ladlepowder

Europe Merged into Monocon

HoffmanCeramics 2008 470 Germany

Refractory ceramicslike filters feeders etc Europe

Czech plant closed suppliesconsumables to foundries

EI Ceramics 2010 590 Ohio USContinuous castingrefractories

US CanadaMexico

Acquired to gain traction inAmerica market

Source Company Centrum Research

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8IFGL Refractories Ltd

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved

IFGL has faced several challenges in managing the profitability and operations of its overseasacquisitions due to global economic crisis in CY08 which impacted steel production in US amp Europevery severely Both Monocon and Hoffman group had EBITDA loss in FY09 but management effortsinto consolidation of key group entities (Goricon was merged with Monocon) and closure of certainunviable facilities (Taiwan Brazil plants of Monocon were closed Czech plant of Hoffman was closed)coupled with recovery in demand has led to gradual improvement in profitability of companyrsquossubsidiaries We note that Monocon grouprsquos profitability has improved substantially during FY11-14with EBITDA CAGR of ~16 and improvement in marginsROE to 8512 in FY14 Hoffman grouphas also returned to profits although margins remain low IFGLrsquos acquisition in US of EI Ceramics in2010 has been rewarding and the company has performed consistently well post acquisition andachieved revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338 during FY11-14

Exhibit 17

Revenue trend for overseas subs Exhibit 18

EBITDA trend for overseas subs

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research

Exhibit 19 EBITDA margin has shown improvement Exhibit 20 ROE has moved up especially for EI Ceramics

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 107EI Ceramics - 328

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 16EI Ceramics - 376

70

89

59

85

139

159

137

161

7080

51 5030

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

119 120 87 120

112

191

158 162

7135

4336

30

50

70

90

110

130

150170

190

210

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

EBITDA has shownimprovement across alloverseas subsidiariesduring FY11-14

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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9IFGL Refractories Ltd

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth

EI Ceramics is doubling its capacity as utilizations on current capacity reached ~100 in FY14 EICeramics has been IFGLrsquos best overseas acquisition achieving revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338since acquisition (FY11-14) We expect revenueEBITDA CAGR of 23227 during FY14-17E asexpansion would be on-stream by Q1FY16E IFGL had spent ~Rs590mn for the purchase of EI and isexpected to achieve full payback in FY15E (less than 5 years) The capex for expansion of additional 80kpcsyear in EI is limited to Rs80mn and would be funded easily through internal accruals We note thatadditional capex would have the potential to generate ~Rs1000mn in revenues on completestabilisation (by FY17E) an asset turnover of more than 10x

Exhibit 21 EI Ceramics to double capacity by Q1FY16 Exhibit 22 Strong revenue and EBITDA CAGR ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings

We expect EI Ceramics to lead the growth in earnings from IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries basket We expectrevenue contribution of EI Ceramics in total overseas subs to increase to ~26 in FY17E from ~20 inFY14 while EBITDA contribution is expected to increase to 41 in FY17E from ~34 in FY14 Since EICeramics enjoys the best margins (~16) among IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries increase in share ofearnings from EI Ceramics is expected to lead to margin improvement for IFGL at a consolidated level

Exhibit 23

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY14 Exhibit 24

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 25

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY14 Exhibit 26

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

80000

80000

160000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E

8631012

1113

1447

1881

118 163 178 231 301

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn)

FY14-17E - CAGR

Revenue - 23EBITDA - 227

Monocon641

EI Ceramics

197

Hoffman161

Monocon607

EI Ceramics

261

Hoffman133

Monocon577

EI Ceramics

338

Hoffman 85

Monocon530

EI Ceramics

405

Hoffman 64

Capacity at EI Ceramicsto increase to 160k pcsyear by FY15-end

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 6: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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6IFGL Refractories Ltd

European demand expected to be better on improving macros

Demand for refractories from European steel mills is expected to be better going forward due togradual pick up in steel production and improving macro situation (as is visible from the pick-up inGDP numbers) Since Europe (including UK) accounts for ~70 of IFGLrsquos exports from domesticoperations and ~50 of revenues on a consolidated basis (including overseas subsidiariesrsquo net sales)we expect IFGL to benefit from improving demand situation in Europe

Exhibit 10

Europe steel production picking up Exhibit 11

GDP in EU amp UK improving

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates CY14 nos annualised for 5MYTD Source Company Centrum Research

Expansions by integrated steel mills provide domestic demand visibility

We see good demand visibility in the domestic market as steel production is expected to pick up ledmainly by higher volumes from large steel mills We expect the share of large integrated steel mills torise to ~60 by FY17E from ~51 in FY14 led mainly by expansions and wide product range We haveconsidered a basket of players (SAIL Tata Steel JSW steel JSPL Essar RINL JSW Ispat) in large steelmills and see volume CAGR of ~12 from them as compared to 6 for the steel industry during FY14-17E IFGL derives ~65 of its domestic revenue from large steel mills and is expected to be a keybeneficiary of the gradual shift in domestic steel production to large steel mills from small mills

Exhibit 12 Steel production growth to pick up Exhibit 13 Led by higher volumes from large steel mills

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 14 Large mills share in steel production to rise Exhibit 15 Large mills to grow faster

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

2099 1969

1375

1732 1775

1412

16561759

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14

EU Production (MT)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

M a r - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

N o v - 0

8

M a r - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

N o v - 0

9

M a r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

N o v - 1

0

M a r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

M a r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

N o v - 1

2

M a r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

N o v - 1

3

M a r - 1 4

UK GDP EU GDP

686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

132

103

79

4050

6070

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

Steel Production - India YoY Growth

339 372 389

433482

539

610

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( M T )

SAIL Tata Steel JSW Steel JSPL Essar Steel RINL Ispat Inds

69 76

82 85 89 95

101

34 37 39 43 48 54 61

4949

48

51

54

57 60

40

45

50

55

60

65

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

( M T )

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

share of integrated mills - RHS

74

60

86

121

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CAGR (FY11-14) CAGR (FY14-17E)

Steel Production Large Integrated steel mills

Domestic steel production shifting tolarge steel mills therebyimproving demandoutlook for organisedrefractory producers

Steel productionand GDP improvingin Europe

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7IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround

Several strategic acquisitions in last decade for expanding reach and product basket

IFGL has made several overseas acquisitions in the last decade mainly aimed at achieving inorganicgrowth through entry into new markets expanding its product basket and getting access to newtechnologies

IFGL acquired Monocon group in 2005 at a cost of 95mn pounds (Rs560mn) with its plantslocated in Brazil Taiwan China UK and USA Monocon group provided IFGL with wide rangeproduct basket (from Lances Darts Monolithics amp Castables) and also gave access to key largesteel plants in Europe of steelmakers like Corus amp Arcelor Mittal

IFGL acquired Goricon group in 2006 at a cost of 11mn pounds (Rs70mn) and later merged it withMonocon as the companies had similar products and were competitors of each other

Hoffman ceramics was acquired in 2008 at a cost of 7mn euros for getting entry into foundries for

supply of consumables

IFGL acquired EI Ceramics in 2010 which has similar product basket as IFGLrsquos domestic operationsbut provided access to key markets in Americas Company acquired EI Ceramics with an eye on

future expansion as it had space to increase capacity by ~3x IFGL also acquired CUSCinternational in US (later merged with EI) which was providing ancillary services to EI includingprocessing of raw materials warehousing and packaging

Exhibit 16

Snapshot of overseas acquisitions

CompanyAcquired

Year ofacquisition

PurchaseCost

(Rs mn)

PlantLocations

Products Markets Comments

MonoconGroup

2005 560UK USChina

Refractory dartslances monolithics

UK EuropeChina

Services key customers in Europelike Corus Arcelor Brazil plantclosed and Taiwan plant shiftedto China

GoriconGroup

2006 70 UK USDarts lances and ladlepowder

Europe Merged into Monocon

HoffmanCeramics 2008 470 Germany

Refractory ceramicslike filters feeders etc Europe

Czech plant closed suppliesconsumables to foundries

EI Ceramics 2010 590 Ohio USContinuous castingrefractories

US CanadaMexico

Acquired to gain traction inAmerica market

Source Company Centrum Research

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8IFGL Refractories Ltd

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved

IFGL has faced several challenges in managing the profitability and operations of its overseasacquisitions due to global economic crisis in CY08 which impacted steel production in US amp Europevery severely Both Monocon and Hoffman group had EBITDA loss in FY09 but management effortsinto consolidation of key group entities (Goricon was merged with Monocon) and closure of certainunviable facilities (Taiwan Brazil plants of Monocon were closed Czech plant of Hoffman was closed)coupled with recovery in demand has led to gradual improvement in profitability of companyrsquossubsidiaries We note that Monocon grouprsquos profitability has improved substantially during FY11-14with EBITDA CAGR of ~16 and improvement in marginsROE to 8512 in FY14 Hoffman grouphas also returned to profits although margins remain low IFGLrsquos acquisition in US of EI Ceramics in2010 has been rewarding and the company has performed consistently well post acquisition andachieved revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338 during FY11-14

Exhibit 17

Revenue trend for overseas subs Exhibit 18

EBITDA trend for overseas subs

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research

Exhibit 19 EBITDA margin has shown improvement Exhibit 20 ROE has moved up especially for EI Ceramics

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 107EI Ceramics - 328

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 16EI Ceramics - 376

70

89

59

85

139

159

137

161

7080

51 5030

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

119 120 87 120

112

191

158 162

7135

4336

30

50

70

90

110

130

150170

190

210

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

EBITDA has shownimprovement across alloverseas subsidiariesduring FY11-14

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9IFGL Refractories Ltd

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth

EI Ceramics is doubling its capacity as utilizations on current capacity reached ~100 in FY14 EICeramics has been IFGLrsquos best overseas acquisition achieving revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338since acquisition (FY11-14) We expect revenueEBITDA CAGR of 23227 during FY14-17E asexpansion would be on-stream by Q1FY16E IFGL had spent ~Rs590mn for the purchase of EI and isexpected to achieve full payback in FY15E (less than 5 years) The capex for expansion of additional 80kpcsyear in EI is limited to Rs80mn and would be funded easily through internal accruals We note thatadditional capex would have the potential to generate ~Rs1000mn in revenues on completestabilisation (by FY17E) an asset turnover of more than 10x

Exhibit 21 EI Ceramics to double capacity by Q1FY16 Exhibit 22 Strong revenue and EBITDA CAGR ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings

We expect EI Ceramics to lead the growth in earnings from IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries basket We expectrevenue contribution of EI Ceramics in total overseas subs to increase to ~26 in FY17E from ~20 inFY14 while EBITDA contribution is expected to increase to 41 in FY17E from ~34 in FY14 Since EICeramics enjoys the best margins (~16) among IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries increase in share ofearnings from EI Ceramics is expected to lead to margin improvement for IFGL at a consolidated level

Exhibit 23

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY14 Exhibit 24

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 25

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY14 Exhibit 26

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

80000

80000

160000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E

8631012

1113

1447

1881

118 163 178 231 301

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn)

FY14-17E - CAGR

Revenue - 23EBITDA - 227

Monocon641

EI Ceramics

197

Hoffman161

Monocon607

EI Ceramics

261

Hoffman133

Monocon577

EI Ceramics

338

Hoffman 85

Monocon530

EI Ceramics

405

Hoffman 64

Capacity at EI Ceramicsto increase to 160k pcsyear by FY15-end

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 7: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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7IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steady growth seen from overseas operations after turnaround

Several strategic acquisitions in last decade for expanding reach and product basket

IFGL has made several overseas acquisitions in the last decade mainly aimed at achieving inorganicgrowth through entry into new markets expanding its product basket and getting access to newtechnologies

IFGL acquired Monocon group in 2005 at a cost of 95mn pounds (Rs560mn) with its plantslocated in Brazil Taiwan China UK and USA Monocon group provided IFGL with wide rangeproduct basket (from Lances Darts Monolithics amp Castables) and also gave access to key largesteel plants in Europe of steelmakers like Corus amp Arcelor Mittal

IFGL acquired Goricon group in 2006 at a cost of 11mn pounds (Rs70mn) and later merged it withMonocon as the companies had similar products and were competitors of each other

Hoffman ceramics was acquired in 2008 at a cost of 7mn euros for getting entry into foundries for

supply of consumables

IFGL acquired EI Ceramics in 2010 which has similar product basket as IFGLrsquos domestic operationsbut provided access to key markets in Americas Company acquired EI Ceramics with an eye on

future expansion as it had space to increase capacity by ~3x IFGL also acquired CUSCinternational in US (later merged with EI) which was providing ancillary services to EI includingprocessing of raw materials warehousing and packaging

Exhibit 16

Snapshot of overseas acquisitions

CompanyAcquired

Year ofacquisition

PurchaseCost

(Rs mn)

PlantLocations

Products Markets Comments

MonoconGroup

2005 560UK USChina

Refractory dartslances monolithics

UK EuropeChina

Services key customers in Europelike Corus Arcelor Brazil plantclosed and Taiwan plant shiftedto China

GoriconGroup

2006 70 UK USDarts lances and ladlepowder

Europe Merged into Monocon

HoffmanCeramics 2008 470 Germany

Refractory ceramicslike filters feeders etc Europe

Czech plant closed suppliesconsumables to foundries

EI Ceramics 2010 590 Ohio USContinuous castingrefractories

US CanadaMexico

Acquired to gain traction inAmerica market

Source Company Centrum Research

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8IFGL Refractories Ltd

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved

IFGL has faced several challenges in managing the profitability and operations of its overseasacquisitions due to global economic crisis in CY08 which impacted steel production in US amp Europevery severely Both Monocon and Hoffman group had EBITDA loss in FY09 but management effortsinto consolidation of key group entities (Goricon was merged with Monocon) and closure of certainunviable facilities (Taiwan Brazil plants of Monocon were closed Czech plant of Hoffman was closed)coupled with recovery in demand has led to gradual improvement in profitability of companyrsquossubsidiaries We note that Monocon grouprsquos profitability has improved substantially during FY11-14with EBITDA CAGR of ~16 and improvement in marginsROE to 8512 in FY14 Hoffman grouphas also returned to profits although margins remain low IFGLrsquos acquisition in US of EI Ceramics in2010 has been rewarding and the company has performed consistently well post acquisition andachieved revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338 during FY11-14

Exhibit 17

Revenue trend for overseas subs Exhibit 18

EBITDA trend for overseas subs

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research

Exhibit 19 EBITDA margin has shown improvement Exhibit 20 ROE has moved up especially for EI Ceramics

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 107EI Ceramics - 328

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 16EI Ceramics - 376

70

89

59

85

139

159

137

161

7080

51 5030

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

119 120 87 120

112

191

158 162

7135

4336

30

50

70

90

110

130

150170

190

210

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

EBITDA has shownimprovement across alloverseas subsidiariesduring FY11-14

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9IFGL Refractories Ltd

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth

EI Ceramics is doubling its capacity as utilizations on current capacity reached ~100 in FY14 EICeramics has been IFGLrsquos best overseas acquisition achieving revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338since acquisition (FY11-14) We expect revenueEBITDA CAGR of 23227 during FY14-17E asexpansion would be on-stream by Q1FY16E IFGL had spent ~Rs590mn for the purchase of EI and isexpected to achieve full payback in FY15E (less than 5 years) The capex for expansion of additional 80kpcsyear in EI is limited to Rs80mn and would be funded easily through internal accruals We note thatadditional capex would have the potential to generate ~Rs1000mn in revenues on completestabilisation (by FY17E) an asset turnover of more than 10x

Exhibit 21 EI Ceramics to double capacity by Q1FY16 Exhibit 22 Strong revenue and EBITDA CAGR ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings

We expect EI Ceramics to lead the growth in earnings from IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries basket We expectrevenue contribution of EI Ceramics in total overseas subs to increase to ~26 in FY17E from ~20 inFY14 while EBITDA contribution is expected to increase to 41 in FY17E from ~34 in FY14 Since EICeramics enjoys the best margins (~16) among IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries increase in share ofearnings from EI Ceramics is expected to lead to margin improvement for IFGL at a consolidated level

Exhibit 23

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY14 Exhibit 24

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 25

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY14 Exhibit 26

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

80000

80000

160000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E

8631012

1113

1447

1881

118 163 178 231 301

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn)

FY14-17E - CAGR

Revenue - 23EBITDA - 227

Monocon641

EI Ceramics

197

Hoffman161

Monocon607

EI Ceramics

261

Hoffman133

Monocon577

EI Ceramics

338

Hoffman 85

Monocon530

EI Ceramics

405

Hoffman 64

Capacity at EI Ceramicsto increase to 160k pcsyear by FY15-end

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 8: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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8IFGL Refractories Ltd

Overseas operations have been consolidated and profitability has improved

IFGL has faced several challenges in managing the profitability and operations of its overseasacquisitions due to global economic crisis in CY08 which impacted steel production in US amp Europevery severely Both Monocon and Hoffman group had EBITDA loss in FY09 but management effortsinto consolidation of key group entities (Goricon was merged with Monocon) and closure of certainunviable facilities (Taiwan Brazil plants of Monocon were closed Czech plant of Hoffman was closed)coupled with recovery in demand has led to gradual improvement in profitability of companyrsquossubsidiaries We note that Monocon grouprsquos profitability has improved substantially during FY11-14with EBITDA CAGR of ~16 and improvement in marginsROE to 8512 in FY14 Hoffman grouphas also returned to profits although margins remain low IFGLrsquos acquisition in US of EI Ceramics in2010 has been rewarding and the company has performed consistently well post acquisition andachieved revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338 during FY11-14

Exhibit 17

Revenue trend for overseas subs Exhibit 18

EBITDA trend for overseas subs

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research

Exhibit 19 EBITDA margin has shown improvement Exhibit 20 ROE has moved up especially for EI Ceramics

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 107EI Ceramics - 328

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( R s

m n )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

FY11-14 - CAGR

Monocon - 16EI Ceramics - 376

70

89

59

85

139

159

137

161

7080

51 5030

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

119 120 87 120

112

191

158 162

7135

4336

30

50

70

90

110

130

150170

190

210

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

( )

Monocon EI Ceramics Hoffman

EBITDA has shownimprovement across alloverseas subsidiariesduring FY11-14

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9IFGL Refractories Ltd

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth

EI Ceramics is doubling its capacity as utilizations on current capacity reached ~100 in FY14 EICeramics has been IFGLrsquos best overseas acquisition achieving revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338since acquisition (FY11-14) We expect revenueEBITDA CAGR of 23227 during FY14-17E asexpansion would be on-stream by Q1FY16E IFGL had spent ~Rs590mn for the purchase of EI and isexpected to achieve full payback in FY15E (less than 5 years) The capex for expansion of additional 80kpcsyear in EI is limited to Rs80mn and would be funded easily through internal accruals We note thatadditional capex would have the potential to generate ~Rs1000mn in revenues on completestabilisation (by FY17E) an asset turnover of more than 10x

Exhibit 21 EI Ceramics to double capacity by Q1FY16 Exhibit 22 Strong revenue and EBITDA CAGR ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings

We expect EI Ceramics to lead the growth in earnings from IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries basket We expectrevenue contribution of EI Ceramics in total overseas subs to increase to ~26 in FY17E from ~20 inFY14 while EBITDA contribution is expected to increase to 41 in FY17E from ~34 in FY14 Since EICeramics enjoys the best margins (~16) among IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries increase in share ofearnings from EI Ceramics is expected to lead to margin improvement for IFGL at a consolidated level

Exhibit 23

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY14 Exhibit 24

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 25

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY14 Exhibit 26

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

80000

80000

160000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E

8631012

1113

1447

1881

118 163 178 231 301

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn)

FY14-17E - CAGR

Revenue - 23EBITDA - 227

Monocon641

EI Ceramics

197

Hoffman161

Monocon607

EI Ceramics

261

Hoffman133

Monocon577

EI Ceramics

338

Hoffman 85

Monocon530

EI Ceramics

405

Hoffman 64

Capacity at EI Ceramicsto increase to 160k pcsyear by FY15-end

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 9: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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9IFGL Refractories Ltd

EI Ceramics doubling capacity to maintain growth

EI Ceramics is doubling its capacity as utilizations on current capacity reached ~100 in FY14 EICeramics has been IFGLrsquos best overseas acquisition achieving revenueEBITDA CAGR of ~3338since acquisition (FY11-14) We expect revenueEBITDA CAGR of 23227 during FY14-17E asexpansion would be on-stream by Q1FY16E IFGL had spent ~Rs590mn for the purchase of EI and isexpected to achieve full payback in FY15E (less than 5 years) The capex for expansion of additional 80kpcsyear in EI is limited to Rs80mn and would be funded easily through internal accruals We note thatadditional capex would have the potential to generate ~Rs1000mn in revenues on completestabilisation (by FY17E) an asset turnover of more than 10x

Exhibit 21 EI Ceramics to double capacity by Q1FY16 Exhibit 22 Strong revenue and EBITDA CAGR ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Share of higher margin EI Ceramics to keep increasing in IFGLrsquos overseas earnings

We expect EI Ceramics to lead the growth in earnings from IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries basket We expectrevenue contribution of EI Ceramics in total overseas subs to increase to ~26 in FY17E from ~20 inFY14 while EBITDA contribution is expected to increase to 41 in FY17E from ~34 in FY14 Since EICeramics enjoys the best margins (~16) among IFGLrsquos overseas subsidiaries increase in share ofearnings from EI Ceramics is expected to lead to margin improvement for IFGL at a consolidated level

Exhibit 23

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY14 Exhibit 24

Overseas subs revenue share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 25

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY14 Exhibit 26

Overseas subs EBITDA share ndash FY17E

Source Company Centrum Research Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

80000

80000

160000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

( p c s y r )

Currently Installed FY16E

8631012

1113

1447

1881

118 163 178 231 301

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn)

FY14-17E - CAGR

Revenue - 23EBITDA - 227

Monocon641

EI Ceramics

197

Hoffman161

Monocon607

EI Ceramics

261

Hoffman133

Monocon577

EI Ceramics

338

Hoffman 85

Monocon530

EI Ceramics

405

Hoffman 64

Capacity at EI Ceramicsto increase to 160k pcsyear by FY15-end

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 10: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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10IFGL Refractories Ltd

Balance sheet strengthened free cash flow generation strong

Strong free cash flow generation ahead with limited capex

IFGL has turned free cash flow positive at a consolidated level in FY14 as operating cash flow improvedsharply (up 240 YoY) led by higher profitability across operations We see strong free cash flowgeneration ahead on the back of limited capex (~Rs250mn annually over FY15-16E) and continued

traction in operating cash flow on the back of higher capacities and better utilizations

Exhibit 27 Free cash flow generation expected to be strong going ahead

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Free cash flow yield to improve significantly

We see free cash flow yield improving to ~12 and free cash flowEBITDA going up to 04x in FY16EBalance sheet remains strong and we expect the company to be debt free at a consolidated level inthe next three years if there is no new acquisition or major capex

Exhibit 28

Free cash flow yield attractive Exhibit 29

Debt free status in next two years

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

-527

-99 -39

211

445549

657

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

OCF Capex Free Cash Flow

019

037 039

040

45

95

117

141

00

40

80

120

160

00

01

02

03

04

05

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Free Cash FlowEBITDA (x) Free Cash Flow Yield -

(02)

00

02

04

06

08

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( x )

Debt-equity Net debt-equity

Free cash flow yieldexpected to go up from45 in FY14 to 117 inFY16E

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 11: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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11IFGL Refractories Ltd

ROE shows improvement beats most peers at a global level

IFGL has shown sharp improvement in its ROE in FY14 as overseas subsidiariesrsquo profitability hasimproved and domestic profitability is on an upswing post start of IEL We expect ROE of IFGL to be thebest in the industry at a global level in the next few years

Exhibit 30

IFGL ROE well above that of global peers

Source Company Bloomberg Centrum Research Estimates CY07 = FY08

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3035

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

( )

Vesuvius India IFGL Refractories (FY) Vesuvius PLC

Puyang Refractories Cie de St-Gobain Magnesita Refractarios

Chosun Refractories Krosaki Harima (FY) Shinagawa (FY)

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 12: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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12IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials

Revenue growth to be led by IEL and overseas operations

We expect consolidated net sales CAGR of 112 for IFGL during FY14-17E This is expected to be ledby ~33 CAGR from IEL and 12 CAGR from overseas subsidiaries while standalone operations CAGRis expected to slow down to 67

Exhibit 31

Net sales CAGR of 112 during FY14-17E

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Margins and return ratios to remain healthy FY14-17E EBITDA CAGR of 141

Backed by better margins from IEL and recovery in demand we expect EBITDA CAGR of 141 duringFY14-17E Margins are expected to improve gradually as revenues from high margin subsidiary IELpicks up Expansion at EI Ceramics is also expected to help in EBITDA growth and margins Returnratios are expected to remain healthy on account of operating efficiency and high asset turnover ratiosfrom new expansions

Exhibit 32

EBITDA margin to remain stable Exhibit 33

Healthy return ratios

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 34

Du Pont analysis

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PATSales (x) 005 007 004 008 008 008 009

SalesAssets (x) 154 174 179 187 189 192 191

AssetsEquity (x) 174 156 152 138 124 115 109

ROE - 138 180 115 212 190 185 181

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

4689

6039 6712

77768484

9554 10697

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( R s m n )

Standalone (IFGL) IFGL Exports (IEL) Overseas Subs Total

411 739 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

88

122

87

141 143 148

152

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EEBITDA-Cons (Rs mn) OPM - RHS

50

100

150

200

250

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

( )

ROE ROCE (post tax) ROIC (post tax)

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 13: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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13IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

Exhibit 35 Key Assumptions

Revenue (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Indian Operations

Domestic sales 1305 1495 1391 1744 2014 2304

Exports 1443 1567 1883 1744 1716 1669

Total standalone operations 2748 3061 3274 3487 3730 3973

IFGL Exports Ltd 0 90 399 518 755 953

Total Indian operations 2748 3152 3673 4005 4485 4926

Overseas Operations

Monocon Group 2410 2801 3288 3617 3979 4376

EI Ceramics 716 863 1012 1113 1447 1881

Hoffman Group 758 692 827 868 911 957

Less Intersegment revenues 596 790 1023 1120 1267 1443

Total Overseas operations 3287 3566 4103 4478 5069 5771

Total Consolidated operations 6035 6717 7776 8484 9554 10697

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 36

EPS sensitivity to shaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) -Cons

Realizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 177 192 206 221 236

-5 187 203 218 234 250

Base 197 214 231 247 264

5 208 225 243 260 277

10 218 236 255 273 291

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 37

EPS sensitivity to unshaped refractory segment

EPS - FY16E (Rs) - ConsRealizations

-10 -5 Base 5 10

V o l u m e s

-10 230 233 235 237 239

-5 228 230 233 235 237

Base 226 228 231 233 235

5 223 226 228 231 234

10 221 223 226 229 232

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 14: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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14IFGL Refractories Ltd

Valuation ndash poised for rerating

IFGLrsquos mean EVEBITDA stands at 47x with standard deviation of 26x and we note that the stock pricehas been volatile in last 6-7 years due to sharp fluctuations in earnings which explains the highstandard deviation However we believe that earnings would be more linear going forward asoverseas operations have been stabilised and growth would be driven by expansions at higher marginsubsidiaries of IEL and EI Ceramics At the CMP of Rs142 the stock trades at attractive valuations of 62xFY16E PE and 36x FY16E EVEBITDA and we believe that sharp improvement in free cash flow canlead to rerating in the stock We assign an EVEBITDA of 55x on Marrsquo16E earnings to arrive at a fairvalue of Rs220 and initiate with a Buy The multiple assigned by us remains below mean+05sd andthus provides comfort on historical valuations even though we expect much better earnings trajectoryfor the company going forward

Exhibit 38

EVEBITDA Valuation

(Rs mn) FY16E

EBITDA 1414

Ascribed EVEBITDA (x) 55

EV 7776

Add Net Cash (123)

Fair value mkt cap 7653

No of shares (mn) 346

Fair Valueshare (Rs) 220

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 39

1-year forward EVEBITDA chart Exhibit 40

1-year forward PE chart

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Estimates

Steep valuation discount exists for IFGL compared to global peersComparison of IFGLrsquos valuations with global peers shows that the company is trading at a steepdiscount despite strong fundamentals which we feel is unwarranted We expect re-rating in the stockwith improvement in outlook and stability in earnings

Exhibit 41 Valuationndash Peer comparison

CompanyMkt Cap(US$ mn)

CAGR CY13-CY15E () EBITDA Margin () PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) RoE () Div Yield ()

Rev EBITDA PAT CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY13 CY14E CY15E

IFGL Refractories 82 108 136 116 141 143 148 77 72 62 53 46 36 212 190 185 12 14 16

Vesuvius India Ltd 220 110 115 126 184 178 186 203 192 161 110 100 82 164 152 158 07 08 09

Global Peers

RHI AG 1322 29 (02) 318 137 122 129 153 103 89 59 65 57 131 177 180 31 31 35

Vesuvius PLC 2140 04 53 80 117 123 128 149 141 127 86 82 74 93 1 02 108 31 34 36

Magnesita SA 574 122 129 344 156 149 158 157 180 101 60 63 55 21 17 35 15 11 21

Cie de St(Gobain 32544 20 91 32 3 100 107 114 218 181 133 76 68 60 58 76 94 29 30 33

Source Bloomberg Estimates Centrum Research Estimates CY13=FY14 for IFGL and so on

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

EVEBITDA MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

0

5

10

15

20

25

J u n - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

F e b - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

F e b - 0 9

J u n - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

PE MeanMean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 15: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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15IFGL Refractories Ltd

IFGL trading at a higher discount to Vesuvius than historical average

IFGL has historically (based on average during JanrsquoCY09-JunersquoCY14) traded at a discount of ~35 toVesuvius India Ltd (VIL) on EVEBITDA basis However currently IFGL is trading at a discount of ~60 toVIL which is unwarranted as the profitability of IFGL is on an uptrend post stabilisation of overseasoperations and IEL The historical discount has seen an increase in the past 3 years due to volatility inearnings of IFGL but with operations having stabilised we see the discount narrowing We also expectIFGL to be above its peers (incl VIL) in terms of ROE for the next few years and see a high cash flowyield of ~12 in FY16E The multiple assigned by us implies ~35 discount to VILrsquos current valuationswhich is in line with the historical average even though IFGL is expected to generate better returnsand free cash flow going forward

Exhibit 42

EVEBITDA ndash IFGL vs Vesuvius India Exhibit 43

Discount of IFGL EVEBITDA vs Vesuvius

Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research Source Bloomberg Company Centrum Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( x )

EVEBITDA IFGL EVEBITDA Vesuvius

(90)

(60)

(30)

0

30

60

F e b - 0

9

J u n - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

( )

EVEBITDA discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

Avg discount of IFGL vs Vesuvius

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 16: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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16IFGL Refractories Ltd

Key risks to our thesis

Dependent on raw material sourcing through imports The industry is dependent on importsof key raw materials like high grade alumina bauxite magnesia silicon carbide etc China is themajor supplier of imports and has imposed heavy taxes on export of raw materials of refractories This has resulted in sharp increase in imported raw material costs IFGL sources ~52 of its raw

materials through imports and remains exposed to increase in costs which can impact its margins Low pricing power due to excess domestic supply and import pressure The industry suffers

from low capacity utilization of ~60 with excess installed capacities (~22 MTPA) and as a resultpricing power is low for refractory makers who are squeezed between raw material suppliers andsteel makers Cheap refractory imports from China have also kept prices in check IFGL does notenjoy as much pricing power as VIL does as customers prefer VIL for its strong brand name andproven track record of providing quality products and services Further increase in competitiveintensity can lead to lower pricing for IFGL in both domestic and export markets

Sharp slowdown in steel industry leading to lower volumes Like any other refractorycompany IFGLrsquos fortunes depend on the steel industry and any slowdown in global economy mayhamper the steel industryrsquos growth and IFGLrsquos volume growth would be more vulnerable as itdoes not have strong relationships like VIL has Sharp slowdown in the steel industry (vs

expectations of recovery) in coming years could lead to lower capacity utilization and lower thanexpected volumes

Currency Fluctuation We believe that steady weakening of rupee over the past couple of yearshas been favourable to the industry as well as for IFGL due to better import substitution andhigher realizations on exports negated only to a partial extent by higher import costs for rawmaterials IFGL has 80 of its revenues coming from overseas on a consolidated basis On astandalone basis approximately 58 of the revenues (FY14) came from exports Companyrsquosrevenues remain exposed to sharp appreciation of rupee against foreign currencies

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 17: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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17IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 44

Shareholding pattern ()

Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Promoter 713 713 713 713

FIIs 00 00 00 00

DIIs 11 22 22 22

Others 277 265 265 265

Source BSE

Company Background

IFGL Refractories Ltd is a manufacturer of specialisedrefractories and requisite operating systems for the steelIndustry IFGL offers its customers total solution for refractoryfor flow control in steel teeming and continuous casting ofSteel IFGL has 8 manufacturing plants strategically located

across the globe in India China Europe and Americas Thecompany has a presence in over 50 of the global markets Itacquired the Monocon group UK in 2005 (06 Hofmanngroup Germany in 2008 and EI Ceramics USA in 2010 Theseoverseas acquisitions have brought along access to newproducts amp technologies new markets and new customers The company has also set up a subsidiary IFGL exports atKandla Gujarat which also has technical collaboration withKrosaki Harima Corporation Japan Apart from this IFGL alsoplans to expand its capacities in India and abroad over thecoming years

Exhibit 45 Key management personnel

Name Position Profile

Mr S K Bajoria Chairman

Promoter of S K Bajoria Group based at Kolkata engaged in diversified business activitiesHas been honorary vice consul of Denmark in Kolkata president of the Indian chamber ofcommerce director of West Bengal industrial development corporation Ltd and industrialpromotion amp investment corporation of Orissa Ltd

Mr Pradeep Bajoria Managing Director

Associated with IFGL from the very early days of Indo Flogates even before thecommencement of production in 1984 Has been director amp chief executive of erstwhileIndo Flogates Ltd More than 30 years of experience of refractory industry and has beeninvolved in various capacities in Indian refractories makers association

Mr Gian Carlo Cozzani Directorr Monocon UK

Associated with IFGL since Oct 2009 Former president and CEO of Vesuvius (now Vesuviusplc) Instrumental in steering Vesuvius from US$ 100 million to over US$ 1 billion Based inEurope he is a member of IFGLrsquos Core group and a director of Monocon InternationalRefractories Limited UK

Source Company

Exhibit 46

IFGL refractories holding structure

Source Company

10051

983113983110983111983116 983127983151983154983148983140983159983145983140983141 983112983151983148983140983145983150983143 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983113983110983111983116 983109983160983152983151983154983156983155 983116983156983140

983117983151983150983151983139983151983150 983111983154983151983157983152 983109983113 983107983141983154983137983149983145983139983155 983112983151983142983149983137983150983150

983107983141983154983137983149983145983139

983124983141983139983144983150983145983139983137983148 983137983150983140 983110983145983150983137983150983139983145983137983148

983107983151983148983148983137983138983151983154983137983156983145983151983150 983151983142

983115983154983151983155983137983147983145 983112983137983154983145983149983137

983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084 983114983137983152983137983150983084

983080983123983157983138983155983145983140983145983137983154983161 983151983142 983118983145983152983152983151983150

983123983156983141983141983148 983107983151983154983152983151983154983137983156983145983151983150983084

983114983137983152983137983150983081

983125983123983105 983125983115 983087 983125983123983105 983087 983107983144983145983150983137

983115983137983150983140983148983137 983123983109983130983084 983111983157983146983137983154983137983156983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983111983141983154983149983137983150983161

983113983110983111983116 983122983141983142983154983137983139983156983151983154983145983141983155 983116983145983149983145983156983141983140

983112983119 983085 983115983151983148983147983137983156983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

983127983151983154983147983155 983085 983115983137983148983157983150983143983137983084 983119983154983145983155983155983137983084 983113983150983140983145983137

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 18: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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18IFGL Refractories Ltd

Exhibit 47 Quarterly financials (cons)

YE Mar (Rs mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14

Net sales 1725 1657 1690 1641 1811 2014 1947 2003

Other Operating Income 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0

Total Income 1729 1662 1690 1641 1814 2014 1947 2003

Accretion to Stocks in trade amp work in progress (29) (10) 4 46 (65) (54) (25) 9

Cost of Raw Materials consumed 840 898 835 581 911 908 817 808

Purchase of traded goods 66 28 42 223 46 73 182 168

Staff Cost 239 234 250 264 247 275 294 281

Other Operational expenses 407 400 375 439 430 513 407 455

Operating Profit (Core EBITDA) 206 112 183 89 246 299 272 282

Depreciation 32 34 35 33 32 34 46 43

EBIT 174 78 149 56 214 265 226 239

Interest 21 22 21 15 17 18 19 16

Other RevenueIncome 16 5 7 8 5 9 6 12

Profit Before Tax 169 61 134 49 202 255 213 236

Tax 50 31 48 31 54 57 68 70

Profit After Tax 119 31 86 18 148 199 145 166

Minority Interest (7) (9) (8) (4) (1) 8 3 8

Profit after minority interest 126 40 95 22 149 191 143 158

Growth (YoY )

Revenue 371 36 61 36 50 216 153 221

EBITDA 129 (457) (125) (477) 195 1672 485 2164

PAT 174 (666) (111) (669) 189 3765 503 6292

Margin ()

EBITDA 119 67 109 54 136 148 140 141

EBIT 100 47 88 34 118 131 116 120

PAT 73 24 56 13 82 95 73 79

Segment Revenue (Net Sales Income from ops)

India 764 749 810 829 872 926 936 941

Asia (excl India) 142 175 160 167 188 213 163 156

Europe 593 545 542 543 612 744 689 764

Americas 405 370 363 344 384 399 427 386

Segment EBIT

India 83 32 84 63 92 103 129 139

Asia (excl India) 8 11 6 9 12 10 5 7

Europe 55 44 51 (4 45 76 74 81Americas 22 13 23 39 38 45 55 36

Source Company Centrum Research

Comments on recent quarterly results

Q4FY14 witnessed a healthy growth with revenue up 221 YoY EBITDA and PAT jumpedsubstantially YoY Margins showed good improvement EBITDA margin expanded by 860 bps YoYOther operating expenses as a proportion of sales reduced to 227 from 267 in Q4FY13 this had apositive impact on margins

Revenue grew 28 QoQ EBITDA amp PAT margins showed signs of consistency further improving fromQ3FY14 European business looks to be on a growth trajectory as revenues have jumped 140 YoYand 11 QoQ Revenue from American segment saw growth of 124 YoY but declined QoQ

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 19: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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19IFGL Refractories Ltd

Annexure ndash Refractory Industry

About refractories ndash consumables for manufacturing processes with high temperatures

Refractories are inorganic non-metallic and heterogeneous materials having very high melting pointswhich make them suitable to be used as heat-resisting barriers consumed within various productionprocesses providing heat chemical and mechanical resistance Refractories are mainly of two types ndash

shaped and unshaped (monolithics) and are used mainly by the steel industry as a consumableproduct in the internal linings of furnaces kilns reactors and other vessels for holding andtransporting metal and slag

Shaped refractories are those which have fixed shapes with most common form being rectangularbrick Brick shapes may be divided into two standard shapes and special shapes Standard shapeshave dimensions that are conformed to by most refractory manufacturers and are generally applicableto kilns and furnaces of the same type Special shapes are specifically made for particular kilns andfurnaces Shaped refractories are almost always machine-pressed and possess high uniformity inproperties are expected

Unshaped refractories are without definite form and are only given shape upon application It forms joint less lining and are better known as monolithic refractories They are manufactured in powderform as granular material and known as plastic refractories ramming mixes castables gunning mixesfettling mixes and mortars

The raw materials used to manufacture refractories are broadly classified into clay and non-clay Clayrefractories consist of naturally occurring alumina silicate like fireclay flint clay flint brick and highalumina and are used to produce bricks and insulating refractories Non-clay refractories are madefrom non-clay materials and are further classified into basic (made in the form of bricks from magnesiadolomite chrome etc) extra high alumina mullite (made from kyanite bauxite alumina) siliconcarbide and zircon

Exhibit 48

Refractory share by form Exhibit 49

Refractory share by raw material

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Unshaped45Shaped 55

Clay 65

Non Clay35

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 20: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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20IFGL Refractories Ltd

Applications of refractories ndash largely used in steel industry for furnace linings

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) the refractories are mostly installed onfired heaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ductingstacks etc The different areas of the steel manufacturing processes are exposed to differenttemperatures slag and sulphur gases Refractory selection for the lining of a furnace is invariably builtupon a combination of material qualities and brick size to maximize performance Steel industry usesrefractory for diverse applications in blast furnaces coke ovens torpedo ladles and secondary refiningladles

In cement industry refractories are used in the kiln the preheating system and the cooler whichoperate in a very high temperature to protect against heat abrasion and chemical attack Commonrefractory materials used are Dolomite Magnesia-Chrome Spinel Magnesia-Alumina Spinel Fireclayand High Alumina The cement kiln clinker area is usually provided with Dolomite refractories

Non(-errous industries like copper and aluminium require high performance refractories in severalequipments like anode baking furnaces induction furnaces reduction pots slag cleaning surfaces etcGlass industry also requires refractories in refiner regenerator dog-house and ports of furnace

Exhibit 50

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Magnesita ppt

Exhibit 51

Refractories consumption in steel making process

Source Vesuvius PLC ppt

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 21: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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21IFGL Refractories Ltd

Steel industry accounts for ~60 of refractory consumption globally and ~75 in the domesticmarket In non-metallurgical industries (cement glass lime) refractories are mostly installed on firedheaters hydrogen reformers cracking furnaces incinerators utility boilers air heaters ducting stacksetc

Exhibit 52

Sector wise refractories demand - Global Exhibit 53

Sector wise refractories demand - India

Source Industry data Centrum Research Source Industry data Centrum Research

Refractory application consumption and replacement dynamics are shown in the table belowSteelmaking requires maximum amount of refractories (10-15kgstonne) with replacement required ina time period of 20 minutes to 2months Cement industry is the next biggest user with annualreplacement requirement while non-ferrous and glass industries have longer replacement cycles

Exhibit 54

Refractory consumption dynamics across user industries

Key Industry Application Replacement Per tonne consumption Refractory requirements

Steel

BF(BOF EAFCasting LadlesInduction FurnacesPellet rotary Kilns

20 minutes to 2months

Global avg - 10-15KgsIndia avg - 15 Kgs

Consumable product ( Systems and solutions for completerefractory management

Cement Kilns annually 1 KgsInvestment goods ( Longer replacement cycles Customizedsolutions based on the specific requirements of various industrialproduction processes complete lining concepts

Glass Glass Furnace upto 10 years 4 Kgs

Non(Ferrous Converters 1(10 yearsAluminium - 6 KgsCopper - 3 Kgs

Source RHI ppt Centrum Research

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn expected to grow at ~35 CAGR

According to various industry studies global refractoriesrsquo market size is ~US$25bn with production of415MT in CY12 According to industry estimates the global refractories industry is expected to witnessCAGR of 35 during CY13-16E and grow to 46MT with a market value of US$29bn China accountedfor ~70 of the market by volume and ~60 by value in CY12 whereas India accounts for ~3 of theglobal refractories market by volume

Exhibit 55

Global refractory market size at ~US$25bn Exhibit 56

China accounts for ~70 of the market

CY12 Production (MT) Value (US$ bn)

World 415 25

China 295 143

EU 41 39

North America 14 14

India 13 09

Source Industry Centrum Research Source Industry Centrum Research

6015

15

10 Steel

Non-Metallic (Cement GlassLime)

Non-Ferrous (AluminiumCopper Zinc Silver)

Others (paper ceramicspetrochemicals)

75

12

6 3

4

Steel

Cement

Non-Ferrous

Glass

Others

415

463

25

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

CY12 CY16

Volume (MT) Mkt Value ($ bn)

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 22: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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22IFGL Refractories Ltd

Domestic refractory demand-supply indicates low industry growth amp import pressure

Demand supply analysis of domestic refractory industry shows that it has been witnessing mutedconsumption growth (due to a fall in per tonne consumption for steel making due to technologicaladvances) and faces strong import pressure with one fourth of the market being serviced by netimports (mainly from cheap supplies from China which accounts for two thirds of refractory imports inIndia) Capacity utilization for the industry remains at ~60 on installed capacity of ~22MT and marketsize is ~US$1bn Domestic refractory consumption in steel has grown at a CAGR of ~2 during FY08-14 We expect industry growth to pick up due to scope for higher steel production (backed by higherinfra spend and expansion in per capita steel consumption) The industry has seen consolidation andacquisitions by global majors in the last five years and organised sector (split between (6 players)accounts for ~65 of the market

Exhibit 57 Refractory demand from domestic steel industry

(In tonne) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Steel Production (MT) 561 572 606 686 757 817 850 893 946 1012

Growth 20 59 132 103 79 40 50 60 70

Avg Refractory consumption(kgt of crude steel)

188 173 168 16 15 145 140 140 140 140

Refractory consumption (steel) 1054680 989560 1018080 1097600 1135500 1184650 1190000 1249500 1324470 1417183

Growth (62) 29 78 35 43 05 50 60 70

Source Ministry of Steel (MoS) Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 58

Organised sector accounts for ~65 of domestic refractory industry

Company RevenueMarket

Share ()

Supply toIntegratedsteel mills

Comments

Vesuvius India Ltd 6017 100 95+Leading supplier with wide product basket strongcustomer relationships with large steel mills

Orient Refractories (RHI) 4035 67 10-15 Has developed a niche with mini steel mills

IFGL Refractories (incl IEL) 3674 61 85+Mainly into flow control shaped refractories goodrelationship with large mills

Tata Refractories 9800 163 Not available Largely into bricks supplies (commodity refractories)

Calderys 6250 104 Not available

Supplies largely to non-ferrous producers strong in

bricks and monolithics

OCL 4056 68 Not available

Total Organized Sector 39332 656

Source Company Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 59

Net imports accounts for one fourth of market Exhibit 60

China accounts for two thirds of imports

Source MoS Industry Centrum Research Source MoS Industry Centrum Research

(800000)

(600000)

(400000)

(200000)

0

200000

400000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

( T o n n e )

Imports Exports Net Imports

167259

380

167228

647594

551

696 685

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Net Imports - share China share in imports

Domestic refractory production growth hasbeen largely flat andcapacity utilization is~60

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 23: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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23IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons)

Exhibit 61

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Revenues from Operations 6712 7776 8484 9554 10697

Raw Materials consumed 3201 3444 3725 4208 4716

of net sales 477 443 439 440 441

Employee expenses 987 1097 1185 1279 1382

of net sales 147 141 140 134 129

Other operational expenses 1621 1805 2013 2243 2486

of net sales 241 232 237 235 232

Total expenses 6130 6680 7273 8140 9068

of net sales 913 859 857 852 848

EBITDA 582 1096 1210 1414 1630

EBITDA Margin () 87 141 143 148 152

Depreciation amp Amortisation 134 155 174 189 204

EBIT 448 942 1036 1225 1425

Interest expenses 80 70 51 29 6

Other Income 45 34 40 44 484

EBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Provision for tax 159 248 307 372 440

Effective tax rate () 386 274 300 300 300Net Profit 254 658 717 868 1027

Less Minority interest (28) 18 32 70 99

Net Profit after MI 282 640 686 798 928

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 62 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 112 159 91 126 120

EBITDA (213) 884 104 168 153

PAT (292) 1269 71 163 163

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 67 121 122 128 133

PBT Margin 62 116 121 130 137

PAT Margin 42 82 81 84 87

Return Ratios ()

ROE 115 212 190 185 181

ROCE 84 177 175 189 198

ROIC 87 179 178 200 224

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 18 19 19 19 19

Debtors 78 78 80 80 80

Inventory 46 49 50 50 50

Creditors 43 45 45 45 45

Net Working capital 74 76 80 80 80

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 05 03 02 01 00

Net debt-equity 04 03 02 00 (01)

Current ratio 25 23 24 25 27

Dividend

Dividend per share 15 18 20 23 23

Dividend Payout () 251 124 130 125 107

Dividend Yield () 11 13 15 17 17

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Fully diluted EPS 82 185 198 231 268

Book value 709 871 1044 1245 1485

Cash earnings per share 120 230 249 285 327

Valuation (x)

PE 174 77 72 62 53

PBV 20 16 14 11 10

EVEBITDA 102 53 46 36 27

EVSales 07 06 06 05 04

M-CapSales 07 06 06 05 05

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 63

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Equity share capital 491 491 491 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 1964 2525 3121 3819 4648

Shareholders fund 2455 3016 3612 4310 5139

Total debt 1142 982 682 382 82

Deferred tax liabilities 65 74 74 74 74

Total Liabilities 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Gross block 2474 2656 2906 3156 3406

Less acc depreciation 1276 1430 1605 1794 1998

Net block 1198 1225 1301 1362 1407

Capital work in progress 20 20 20 20 20

Goodwill 1105 1342 1342 1342 1342

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Inventories 848 1034 1162 1309 1465

Trade Receivables 1427 1658 1859 2094 2345

Cash amp cash equivalents 113 33 69 259 609

Loans amp advances 51 107 116 131 147

Trade payables 799 962 1046 1178 1319

Other current liabilities 166 210 232 262 293Provisions 94 124 139 157 176

Total Assets 3741 4167 4495 4963 5591

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 64 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 413 906 1025 1240 1467

Interest 72 70 51 29 6

Depreciation 134 155 174 189 204

Increase in debtors (330) (231) (201) (235) (251)

Increase in inventories 7 (186) (128) (147) (157)

Increase in trade payables 46 163 84 132 141

Tax 197 248 307 372 440

Cash flow from operations 183 629 695 799 907

Change in fixed assets (194) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Cash flow from investments (172) (418) (250) (250) (250)

Change in debt 19 (160 (300) (300) (300)

Dividends paid (71) (79) (89) (100) (100)

Interest paid (80) (70) (51) (29) (6)

Cash flow from financing (94) (291) (409) (358) (306)

Net cash flow (81) (81) 36 191 350

Opening cash balance 195 113 33 69 259

Closing cash balance 113 33 69 259 609

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullifgl-refractories-initiating-coverage-centrum-24062014 2526

25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullifgl-refractories-initiating-coverage-centrum-24062014 2626

The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

Page 24: IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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24IFGL Refractories Ltd

Financials (Cons) - Historical

Exhibit 65

Income Statement

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Revenues from Operations 3780 3982 4152 4689 6039

Raw Materials consumed 1743 1907 2058 2389 3024

of net sales 461 479 496 509 501

Employee expenses 487 589 539 661 843

of net sales 129 148 130 141 140

Other operational expenses 918 1036 951 1148 1418

of net sales 243 260 229 245 235

Total expenses 3244 3708 3575 4279 5299

of net sales 858 931 861 912 878

EBITDA 536 274 578 411 739

EBITDA Margin () 142 69 139 88 122

Depreciation amp Amortisation 63 74 70 71 123

EBIT 473 200 508 339 617

Interest expenses 82 95 45 56 68

Other Income 18 24 34 43 33

EBT 409 128 497 327 582

Provision for tax 123 67 155 84 183

Effective tax rate () 301 523 311 258 315Net Profit 286 61 343 243 398

Less Minority interest 1 0 0 0 0

Net Profit after MI 285 61 343 243 399

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 66 Key Ratios

YE Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Growth Ratio ()

Revenue 171 53 43 129 288

EBITDA 98 (489) 1111 (289) 800

PAT 85 (785) 4586 (292) 642

Margin Ratios ()

PBIT Margin 125 50 122 72 102

PBT Margin 108 32 120 70 96

PAT Margin 75 15 83 52 66

Return Ratios ()

ROE 294 54 250 138 180

ROCE 182 49 169 93 128

ROIC 195 53 183 98 141

Turnover Ratios (days)

Asset turnover ratio (x) 20 18 19 15 17

Debtors 97 55 79 85 69

Inventory 46 47 52 55 52

Creditors 49 23 41 50 44

Net Working capital 105 81 89 93 67

Gearing Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 09 09 06 07 05

Net debt-equity 08 08 05 07 04

Current ratio 29 36 26 25 24

Dividend

Dividend per share 20 00 10 05 15

Dividend Payout () 284 00 118 103 63

Dividend Yield () 15 00 07 04 11

Per share Ratios (Rs)

Basic EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Fully diluted EPS 82 18 99 70 115

Book value 280 328 396 508 641

Cash earnings per share 101 39 119 91 151

Valuation (x)

PE 164 762 136 193 117

PBV 48 41 34 27 21

EVEBITDA 102 203 93 142 76

EVSales 12 12 11 10 08

M-CapSales 12 12 11 10 08

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 67

Balance Sheet

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Equity share capital 346 346 346 491 491

Reserves amp surplus 623 789 1026 1266 1728

Shareholders fund 969 1135 1372 1757 2219

Total debt 869 1003 793 1253 1128

Deferred tax liabilities 41 38 38 40 48

Total Liabilities 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Gross block 1456 1948 1966 2738 2238

Less acc depreciation 687 827 864 960 1122

Net block 769 1121 1102 1778 1117

Capital work in progress 46 53 28 21 45

Goodwill 347 594 559 1032 1094

Investments 0 0 4 14 5

Inventories 474 513 592 702 855

Trade Receivables 1001 596 895 1096 1134

Cash amp cash equivalents 77 129 120 100 195

Loans amp advances 152 121 133 152 38

Trade payables 507 256 471 637 729

Other current liabilities 32 90 137 112 194Provisions 102 2 60 60 151

Total Assets 1879 2185 2206 3054 3465

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 68 Cash Flow

YE Mar(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

PBT 409 128 497 327 582

Interest 81 96 45 56 59

Depreciation 63 74 75 87 129

Increase in debtors (196) 559 (330) (184) 25

Increase in inventories (72) 35 (79) (77) (135)

Increase in trade payables 82 (304 266 115 67

Tax 119 90 138 70 135

Cash flow from operations 285 814 359 237 520

Change in fixed assets (94) (99) (120) (157) (49)

Cash flow from investments (62 (536 (119 (677 (98

Change in debt (88) 15 (276) 245 (242)

Dividends paid (76) (80) (6) (46) (25)

Interest paid (87) (98) (47) (60) (68)

Cash flow from financing (261) (245) (241) 408 (339)

Net cash flow (43) 24 (8) (29) 94

Opening cash balance 120 77 129 120 100

Closing cash balance 77 129 120 100 195

Source Company data Centrum Research Estimates

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullifgl-refractories-initiating-coverage-centrum-24062014 2526

25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullifgl-refractories-initiating-coverage-centrum-24062014 2626

The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

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25IFGL Refractories Ltd

Appendix A

Disclaimer

Centrum Broking Limited (ldquoCentrumrdquo) is a full(service Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange Mumbai (BSE) and National StockExchange of India Ltd (NSE) Our holding company Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities As a group Centrumhas Investment Banking Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group Ourresearch professionals provide important inputs into the Groups Investment Banking and other business selection processes

Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking advisory project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission brokerage fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterialreport Our Company and Group companies and their officers directors and employees including the analysts and others involved in thepreparation or issuance of this material and their dependants may on the date of this report or from time to time have long or short positions in actas principal in and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1 or more in theequity of this company Our sales people dealers traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies toour clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on thecompanies covered herein with recommendations information inconsistent or different those made in this report In reviewing this document youshould be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest We and our Group may rely oninformation barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us or other areas units groups oraffiliates of Centrum Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was writtenFurther Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject companyrsquos securities at the time that the research report was published

This report is for information purposes only and this documentmaterial should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buypurchase or subscribe to any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection

with any contract or commitment whatsoever This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein It is for the generalinformation of the clients of Centrum Though disseminated to clients simultaneously not all clients may receive this report at the same time Centrumwill not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account theparticular investment objectives financial situations or needs of individual clients Similarly this document does not have regard to the specificinvestment objectives financial situationcircumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document The securitiesdiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to allcategories of investors The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments voting rightsor dealings in securities by nationals of other countries The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investorsindividual circumstances and objectives Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable forhis hertheir particular circumstances and if necessary seek professionalfinancial advice Any such person shall be responsible for conductinghishertheir own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involvedin the securities forming the subject matter of this document

The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significantuncertainties and contingencies Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that one or more of the estimateson which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variances will likely increase

over time All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accented accountingprinciples No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts You should notregard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company Centrum theauthors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved For these reasons youshould only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report including theassumptions underlying such projections and forecasts

The price and value of the investments referred to in this documentmaterial and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors mayrealize losses on any investments Past performance is not a guide for future performance Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capitalmay occur Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections Forward (looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potentialinvestment Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report Foreign currenciesdenominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived fromthe investment In addition investors in securities such as ADRs the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency riskCertain transactions including those involving futures options and other derivatives as well as non(investment(grade securities give rise to substantial

risk and are not suitable for all investors Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into anyderivative transactions

This reportdocument has been prepared by Centrum based upon information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable Norepresentation or warranty express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete Centrum has reviewed the report and in so far as it includescurrent or historical information it is believed to be reliable although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed The opinions expressed inthis documentmaterial are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change

This report or recommendations or information contained herein dodoes not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessiblemedia and should not be reproduced transmitted or published by the recipient The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only Thispublication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum This report or any portionhereof may not be printed sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum

The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should informthemselves about and observe any such restrictions Neither Centrum nor its directors employees agents or representatives shall be liable for anydamages whether direct or indirect incidental special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection withthe use of the information

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anythingcontained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to yousolely for your information may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person Thedistribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselvesabout and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations No representation is made thatthis report is accurate or complete

7212019 IFGL Refractories - Initiating Coverage - Centrum 24062014

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000

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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Brokingand are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of thisreport and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions estimate or projection

This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of or by arrangement with the company or any of itsdirectors or any other person Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or itsdirectors or any other person Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors None of the company or its directors orany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connectiontherewith

Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co(managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months Centrum andaffiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of thisreport for service in respect of public offerings corporate finance debt restructuring investment banking or other advisory services in amergeracquisition or some other sort of specific transaction

As per the declarations given by them Mr Abhisar Jain research analyst and andor any of his family members do not serve as an officer director or anyway connected to the companycompanies mentioned in this report Further as declared by him he has not received any compensation from the abovecompanies in the preceding twelve months He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to doany transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid asalary They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason toknow at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis Centrum its associated companies their directors and employees areunder no obligation to update or keep the information current Also there may be regulatory compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrumfrom doing so

Non(rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations andor Centrum policies in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company or any certain othercircumstances

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality statecountry or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subjectCentrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Specifically this document doesnot constitute an offer to or solicitation to any US person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of anytransaction to any US person unless otherwise stated this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction No part of thisdocument may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom

The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized readingdissemination distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized Please ensure that you have read ldquoRiskDisclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segmentsrdquo as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in IndianSecurities Market

Rating Criteria

Rating Market cap lt Rs20bn Market cap gt Rs20bn but lt 100bn Market cap gt Rs100bn Buy Upside gt 25 Upside gt 20 Upside gt 15

Hold Upside between (25 to +25 Upside between (20 to +20 Upside between (15 to +15

Sell Downside gt 25 Downside gt 20 Downside gt 15

Member (NSE BSE MCX(SX) Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

Registration Nos

CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN NO BSE INB011454239 NSE INB231454233

DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN NO NSE INF231454233 (TRADING amp SELF CLEARING MEMBER)

CDSL DP ID 12200 SEBI REGISTRATION NO IN(DP(CDSL(661(2012

PMS REGISTRATION NO INP000004383

MCX ndash SX (Currency Derivative segment) REGN NO INE261454230

Website wwwcentrumcoin

Investor Grievance Email ID investorgrievancescentrumcoin

Compliance Officer Details

Tel (022) 4215 9413 Email ID compliancecentrumcoin

Centrum Broking Limited

Registered Office Address

Bombay Mutual Building

2nd Floor

Dr D N Road

Fort Mumbai ( 400 001

Correspondence Address

Centrum House

6th Floor CST Road Near Vidya Nagari Marg Kalina

Santacruz (E) Mumbai 400 098

Tel (022) 4215 9000