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If Scotland stays:What next for Scottish
nationalism?
Dr Nicola McEwenUniversity of Edinburgh
Associate Director, Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change
What do we mean by Scottish nationalism?
What would a NO vote mean for the SNP?
What would a NO vote mean for the prospects for independence?
Unpacking the Question
From national distinctiveness to nationalist mobilisation
Distinctive territorial community/identity mobilised to demand change
Political party/strong civil society capable of channelling demands
A sense of grievance, or ‘frustration’ with status quo – a catalyst for change
“to accept the existence of multiple identities, mutually compatible or not, within a territorial state says nothing about their metamorphosis from social distinctiveness to political expression”. Such a trans-formation requires the “injection of catalysts”
Rokkan and UrwinEconomy Territory, Identity,
1983
Nationalist Movement1979 – (pre-)1997
Divergence between Scottish and ‘English’ voting patterns ‘Democratic deficit’ > political grievance. Strengthening of Scottish national identity and weakening of
Britishness Broad-based movement united around support for Scottish
Parliament Fusion of identity, nationalism and party/ideological politics
To be anti-Conservative = pro ‘home rule’ = Scottish identity = pro social democracy
Civil Society & the “Claim of Right for Scotland”
“We, gathered as the Scottish Constitutional Convention, do hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to
determine the form of Government
best suited to their needs”
The SNP Government’s Gamble:Absence of Grievance - Presence of Opportunity
The only catalyst = SNP electoral success
Parliamentary majority = political opportunity
Electoral success NOT a result of independence demands
parliamentary share of seats at 2007 and
2011 Scottish elections
SNPLabourConsLib Dems
Defining Independence
Legitimacy of Scotland’s ‘right to decide’
Government-backed blueprint for an independent Scotland
‘Embedded independence’ within EU and British Isles Currency union; energy
partnership; common travel area; common research area; ‘National’ lottery; cross-border functional bodies
Emphasis on continuities and change
“Scotland will continue to have a close and special relationship with the other nations of these isles. This will be a new, updated partnership of equals between the people of Scotland and the rest of the UK”
Emergence of the Independence Movement(Source: Bella Caledonia)
Continued assertion of Scottish distinctiveness/interests within the Union With more or less leverage, less influence….?
Continued commitment to IndependenceRetention of referendum strategy, but without immediate
manifesto commitmentFuture referendum as response to external catalyst &
PQ’s “winning conditions”
The Effect of a NO vote on the SNP’s independence goal
Continuing the Devolution journey without nationalist cause
Reclaiming & redefining ‘Devo Max’ as a nationalist goal
Full fiscal autonomy
Employment & competition law; regulation of companies
Broadcasting, inc new public service broadcasting bodies
Social security, with fiscal autonomy – to design new benefit, tax credit & employment support system
Equalities legislation
Energy policy, marine regulation & Crown Estates
Formal participation rights in EU policy-making
Dr Nicola McEwen, University of EdinburghEmail: [email protected]
@mcewen_nicola
Future of the UK and Scotland Programme website: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk
@UKScotland
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