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A New Method for Market Potential Assessment on Emerging Technology Products and Its Positive Analysis

GU Cheng-jian，HUANG Lu-cheng

Economic & Management School, Beijing University of Technology, P.R.China, 100124

Abstract: Many researchers have done great jobs in the study of the assessment of future market potential of emerging technology products, and it has been one of the research hotspots in the field of MOT, while there are still not convincing methods that can complete the systematic analysis from the research results. This study presents a systematic analysis method that combing the subjective and objective methods of market potential assessment and analyzing the matching up of the technology supply and market requirements, and this is expected to be the comprehensive assess method and with great practical value. We also assess the future market potential of tubular skylight system as the specific example, and we get the match degree between the tubular skylight system and the market demand product in the end.

Keywords: emerging technology and product, market potential, functional decomposition, QFD, set pair analysis (SPA), tubular skylight system 1 Introduction

Emerging product is the product initialed by emerging technology; we can analyze the future view of emerging technology on the basis of the assessment of the product that manufactured under the unique technical performance of emerging technology. There are three ways to the birth of Emerging technology and product: first, designed and manufactured for special needs or events, such as Beijing Olympic Games, China has launched the corresponding technology specific programs, funded a large number of critical technologies to create a large number of independent innovations of the emerging technologies and products; The second is technological break-through and innovation in the testing laboratory, which is different from the tradition customer-made course and is belong to technology promoting type, we have no clear views of its future market and commercialization; The third way is to set up the R&D goal for specific market demand, these technologies and products have clear market orientation, target consumers and function scheme, therefore the commercialized risk is much lower than the

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70639002)

former two ways. After Beijing Olympic Games, China will do great efforts to insure the success of commercialization and industrialization of the multiple technologies and products that have successfully supported the Olympic Games. And these technologies and products also got the opportunities to show their power and magmatic in this platform. Therefore, it is very urgent and important to carry on the market potential assessment of these technologies and products which have low cognition and indeterminate future.

To assess the new technologies’ market potential is importance and difficult; it has attracted many scholars to study in this field. Kraemer put forward a method used to assess the computer and information technology market, he attached particular importance to the drivers and barriers factors in the research market, he proposed the adoption of suitable marketing and product development strategy to meet customer needs, and overcome market barriers. In this paper, taking the U.S. market as the benchmark market, to measure the extent which a specific country or global market potential has reached in prepared with the United States’ at a given income level. Consumer needs and industry needs is to determine the market potential of the two essential elements in a country. A country’s market environment, corporate strategy and potential profitability often decide if the market potential can become reality [1].

Malanowski proposed that long-term-oriented technology foresight should be made with a combination of medium-term-oriented and short-term-oriented traditional market research in analyzing the new technologies’ economic potential in the early stages of development, and so formed the “market foresight” modules. Traditional market research tools include expert interviews, commercial surveys, literature analysis, and patent analysis. Patent analysis and commercial investigate is quantitative analysis. Technology foresight tools include Delphi survey and SWOT, these tools is qualitative analysis. The combination of market research methods and technology foresight methods achieve complementary between the quantitative and qualitative instruments. “Market foresight modules” is the best way to analyze the new technologies’ potential value. It will become an important component of technology foresight. We can get a better market assessment result with it in the new technology field where traditional market

2009 International Conference on Management Science & Engineering (16th) September 14-16, 2009 Moscow, Russia

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research methods can do nothing [2]. Propp think the emerging technology has enormous

uncertainty and potential tremendous value. At an early stage, it is difficult to predict its potential value can be realized. Then, now researchers, technical experts, R & D managers, investors and policy makers are how to evaluate new technology and to manage the high-risk project? What kind of assessment instrument they used? Propp proposed a framework by which relevant documentation become available: Science and technology management strategy, R & D and innovation management, future management, organizational management, technology policy and bibliometrics. He applied three instrument to study these data: future assessment tools (technology foresight tools Bibliometrics tools, scenario planning tools), Future coordination of assessment tools (non-continuity of technical caused by destructive technologies assessment, technical cycle assessment), Investment portfolio and project management tools. His research concluded that most people emphasized the need for assessment tools when they carry out assessment activities at the basis of personal experience and capacity, especially in the absence of widely applicable technology assessment tool, people should update the existing instrument, or develop new assessment tools, assessed the contact between new technology and potential uses, and outlined the new technology the process of ups and downs [3].

Tugrul U.Daim (Portland State University, USA 2006) pointed out that because there is no historical data available, so to predict new technologies’’ market potential is a very difficult thing. By use of bibliometrics, patent analysis and system dynamics model, he predicted the future markets of fuel, food safety and optical storage technology [4].

F.T.S. Chan (2000) proposed that, even if there are hierarchy models in a complex economic environment, but future cash flows are very uncertainty, cash flow estimation methods often draw some untrue date or risk possibility index, so the evaluation results became very fuzzy [5].

Torsten Fleischer（2005）pointed out that the early assessment of technology future was the basic idea of new technology assessment, and the traditional life cycle and cash flow analysis had a lot of drawbacks. Finally, he proposed to study the formation process of new technology by combining with market research and the future application visions with the science roadmap method [6].

Singapore scholars Chris Holmes (2004) proposed an improved Cambridge T-Plan method (Operation and Technology Roadmap, OTR) to help Singapore SMEs assess the potential market of new technologies. OTR is mainly carried out at five stages: (1) Self-assessment: to identify enterprises now operation standards and technical level, assessing its market position; (2) Market Analysis: to analyze the current demand, market power and the priority; (3) Products and Services Analysis: to

analyze and segment products and services features and ideas, formulating the product strategy; (4) Technology: to analyze technologies’ future development trends and corresponding time, there even is some soft technologies, such as training, recruitment, technology financing and so on; (5) Graphics: to paint the graphics of technical resources and future market opportunities [7].

Domestic scholars study potential market of emerging technology products mainly using of patent analysis, literature analysis approaches. Yang Bangchao (2003) described the Japanese industry is how to grasp the degree of market acceptance by analyzing the number of related patents, fields and patent applications of nanotechnology in Japan during 1993-2000, to take better strategies to promote the industrialization [8].

Dong Wei (2008) has studied the problems of knowledge innovation products in knowledge management and the chaos, bifurcation and self-organization complexity problem in market prediction, by utilizing non-linear science and self-organization theory and other methods [9].

However, the current studies have some consensus, but also insufficient. The consensuses are: attention to predict the potential market or economic value of emerging technology products, attention to consider the significance of consumer demands (not just the final consumer, but also stakeholders), attention to use variety of methods (evaluation tools). The insufficient are: no good combination of technology supply and market requirements; no systematic and structured system of integrated use of quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. 2 Research frame

The assessment method put forward in this paper combined the subjective and objective methods, qualitative and quantitative analyses methods used in the market potential assessment, and present a vision from the matching up of the technology supply and market demand. In the concrete research, we obtain the market requirements by employing KJ method, Kano model, QFD, and we get the technology functions by using AHP, Fuzzy, and patent analysis etc; in the end, we can calculate the market potential value of emerging technology and product under SPA theory.

From analyzing subjectively and objectively, this systematical assess method has good practice meaning and academic value in the study of future market potential of emerging technology and product. We also select representative technologies from Olympic technology specific programs and do the evaluation, expecting offering guidance for the further completion of this method. The research frame is shown as Fig.1.

The key points of study are as followings: (1) The obtaining and analysis of market

requirements

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Fig.1 The research frame of this study

This part is the starting point for research and the initial source of data, so it must be precise and meticulous. Emerging technology and product will face multiple users, managers, buyers and vindicator etc. all these people’s requirements consist the complete future market demands, so we should consider as many requirements as possible. The method that we use here is KJ method which is the mature approach in the field of market research at present, and it contains VOC table, as well as questionnaire design and others. K-J methods is created in 1964 by Jiro Kawakita who was a professor of Tokyo Worker, Human writer, KJ are the letters of his name [10]. If we do a complete KJ analysis, we can basically know the accurate market demands. While it costs much time and needs many people to anticipate. We also use Kano model to put the market requirements into the basic needs, expectations of demands and Charismatic-type demands, this could be helpful for the next analysis by identifying in a variety of needs on different important degrees.

We also need to determine and integrate the important degree of demand of all relevant, and we can apply different analysis ways by different classes. For

example, we can obtain the important degree of customers’ demands by the questionnaire; engineer and product managers’ important degree can be got through the Delphi, questionnaires or the literature survey. Finally, we integrate all important degree of demands by their weights.

(2) Functions decomposition The functions of the product are determined by the

technology, the specialist of technologies such as materials, process and technology program will determine the function features of product. And the function set we get is not overlapped, but also including all the features of property.

This part of the study separately from both subjective and objective analysis, Subjective methods include expert advice, AHP and Fuzzy Ways, the main objective analysis methods are patent analysis and documentation analysis,

We identify the unique function of new product, at the same time, we consider expert knowledge and the large amounts of data, and this can be very accurate and comprehensive to build functional decomposition.

Elements analysis of the market and technology

The study of assessment method of market potential of emerging

technology products

Demands: ideal products attribute value Supply: real products attribute value

Relational degree: the market potential of the emerging technology product

SPA

Analyze the market, make the plan

Obtain all demands and integrate them

Questionnaire KJ method Kano model

Expert research Patent Analysis

Literature Analysis

Technical property of emerging technology products QFD input

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Fig.2 The framework of QFD

(3) How to obtain the ideal products attribute value Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is the most

widely used method in the product design research area for integrating the market demands and the engineering properties. QFD was first proposed in 1966 by Yoji Akao a quality expert from Japan, it is a planning process for the market-oriented product design and development, QFD is a user-driven product development approach, it uses a systematic, standardized method of investigation and Analysis of market requirements, and utilize a structured framework to convert the requirements into the various technical features of the product development process, which makes the products designed and manufactured to meet customer demands [11].

Based on the traditional framework of QFD, this study does matrix property analysis between market demand and product features (see Fig.2) [12]. The left side of Fig.2 is the input of the market requirements information (CR), including integrated significance degree, the top are functions properties (DR), then technology experts mark the relations in the matrix of CR and DR, the two classification methods used for correlation ship level here are 5,3,1,0 or 9,3,1,0 [13].

In the end, we can set out the function property value to meet the market demands under the technology experts, which are ideal function property value; correspond, we could list the functional property value of the existing products. At this point, the two collections required for the set pair analysis have been completed.

(4) SPA The market potential used in this study is focused

on the gap between the ideal product and the real product; this is the first work when we begin to forecast the future view of the emerging technology. The target of our study is to find out whether the real emerging technology and product has the coincidence with the one market expects, the higher the coincidence degree, the better future view of the emerging technology and product, set pair analysis

(SPA) can solve this problem exactly. SPA was a new analysis method proposed in 1989 by Mr. Zhao Keqin after his nearly 20 years of thinking [14].

SPA theory use a number of u = a + bi + cj to deal with all the uncertainty problem caused by the fuzzy, stochastic, intermediaries and incomplete information, the characteristics of which is to admit all the uncertainties and Put certainty and uncertainty in the e(equal)D(diversity)O(opposite)systems with anti-dialectical analysis and mathematical treatment. Because of its powerful vitality, SPA has been widely used in the decision-making, forecasting, data fusion, uncertainty reasoning and product design areas.

The two sets in the SPA theory must have some relations, relational degree is a formula: N is the total number of the characteristics that two sets have, S is the common characteristics and P is the opposite characteristics, F=N-S-P is the rest of the remaining characteristics; S/N ， F/N ， P/N are respectively representing degree of identity, degree of discrepancy, degree of contrary; j is the coefficient of degree of contrary and Provided value -1; i is the coefficient of degree of discrepancy and provided value between -1 and 1. Relational degree can be recorded as (1) [15]:

u = S/N + (F/N) i + (P/N) j (1) 3 The market potential assessment of tubular skylight system 3.1 The introduction of tubular skylight system

Tubular skylight system is a new lighting system invented and designed by Monodraught in 1980s; it can capture sunlight outdoor and transfer it to the room. The light can be captured by the dome of the system and the captured light is transferred by the tube with high reflective internal surface. The light can be scattered by the diffuser and used as illumination. So the system could work without the power. From dawn to dusk, even it is rainy or cloudy, the lighting in the room with this system is still very sufficient. Tubular skylight system can replace the day electric lighting in daylight. It is also no energy consumption, one-off investment and no need of protection [16].

The gymnasium of University of Science & Technology Beijing installed 148 Reflective Tubes with the 550 mm refracting rate and the 99.7% diameter, and it is the only one Olympic gymnasium which has the Tubular skylight system. Through testing, the critical intensity of illumination can reach 150Lx in the room when the value of critical intensity of illumination is 20000Lx outdoors and the degree of consistency of the lighting ≥0.7 [17].

In addition, Tubular skylight system is also installed and used in the places such as the underground parking of Beijing Olympic Park, the official residence of Dutch embassy and Beijing Botanical Garden, from these

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Tab.1 The customer needs

Cus

tom

er

Nee

ds

Secondary demand user designer manager Weighted priority

Goo

d

perf

orm

ance

Long lighting 3 4 4 3.67

High-brightness 5 5 5 5

No much affection by the weather 3 3 3 3

Good lighting effects 4 4 4 4

conv

enie

nt Easy to operate 5 4 5 4.67

Freely adjust light 4 5 4 4.33

Freely adjust the effect of color 3 3 3 3

Goo

d re

liabi

lity

Absorption of ultraviolet and infrared 4 4 4 4

No spark, no risk of electric shock 5 5 5 5

No electromagnetic radiation 5 5 5 5

No noise 3 3 3 3

Easy

to

repa

ir

Easy replacement of spare parts 3 4 4 3.67

Good stability of Top dome 4 5 4 4.33

Easy to repair 4 5 4 4.33

Low

pric

e

Affordable price 5 4 4 4.33

No other attachment installation expenses 4 3 2 3

Reasonable prices of components 4 3 3 3.33

Reasonable cost of repair 4 3 3 3.33 projects we can see that the organizations have pay close attention to commercialization and industrialization of this product.

3.2 Capturing the voice of the customer

We chose three research units: the venue management of University of Science & Technology Beijing, Eastview Company, and China Architecture

Design & Research Institute, they are the representatives of users, managers and designer, overall 50 people participated in the questionnaire survey. In the end, we got the customer needs as shown in the Tab.1 by KJ method and questionnaire, and we also got the priority by rating five levels. The number 1 means the demands that doesn’t affect the function implementation; the number 5 means the most important demands that cannot

be neglected [18]. 3.3 The Technical Characteristics of tubular skylight system

As the emerging technology product, tubular skylight system has no strict standards of the technical characteristics, so we do the research and analysis from the R&D department and design code department, combing the analysis results of Architectural Design & Research Institute and the R&D companies, we got 6 technical characteristics finally: The material of top dome;

The performance of top dome; the material of Reflective Tube; the material of Diffuser; how to control the light; the product life. 3.4 QFD

On the condition that we have all the demands of the market and the technical characteristics, we can construct a HOQ. We will put the above-mentioned demand information and characteristics on the HOQ

respectively (as Tab.2).With the support of technology exports, we grade in interrelated matrix in five levels. The number 1 means low correlation between technical characteristics and the demand of the customer in the point of intersection. The number 9 means strong relationship between technical function and the demand of the customer in the point of intersection. The other three levels mean that the relations become strong gradually [19]. We also calculate the importance of technical characteristics by independent collocation method. Firstly, we have the average of the importance of the demand of three dimensions. Secondly, we multiply the importance of the demand and the values related to the correspondence matrix. Finally, we sum them up lengthways. The importance of technical characteristics can be seen in Tab.2 [20]. According to the knowledge of technology specialists and the present conditions of the technology, we put forward the values of the technical function. In Tab.2, we can see the values of estimation of the final matrix.

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Tab.2 The QFD analysis frame C

usto

mer

Nee

ds

Secondary demand Priority

Technical Characteristics

The material of top dome

The performance of top dome

The material of Reflective Tube

The material of Diffuser

How to control the light

The product life

Goo

d p

erfo

rman

ce

Goo

d pe

rfor

man

ce Long lighting 3.67 7 5 7 3 9

High-brightness 5 9 7

No much affection by the weather 3 7

Good lighting effects 4 9

conv

enie

nt Easy to operate 4.67 9

freely adjust light 4.33 9

Freely adjust the effect of color 3 3 9

Goo

d re

liabi

lity

Absorption of ultraviolet and infrared

4 9 3 3

No spark, no risk of electric shock 5 7 3 1

No electromagnetic radiation 5 3 5 3 1

No noise 3 3 1 3

Easy

to re

pair

Easy replacement of spare parts 3.67 1 7 3

Good Stability of Top dome 4.33 9 9 3 1 9

Easy to repair 4.33 5 5 3

Low

pric

e

Affordable price 4.33 5 7 7 9 No other attachment installation expenses 3 3 5

Reasonable prices of components 3.33 3 3 3 5

Reasonable cost of repair 3.33 3 3 3 7

Importance rating 149.3 134.9 214.3 238.3 168.6 309.3

Target Value

import PC, circumpolar UV coating

high hardness, Anti-aging, well light transmittance , the absorption of ultraviolet and infrared

Fluorilon-99W Avian-B

Terminal remote controller

More than 20 years

Tab.3 The corresponding value of properties of tubular skylight system

The material of top dome

The performance of top dome

The material of Reflective Tube

The material of Diffuser

How to control the light

The product life

import PC, circumpolar UV coating

high hardness, Anti-aging, well light transmittance

Hollow prism optical thin-film catheter, PMMD plastic

Avian-B Partial control Almost 15 years

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3.5 The side pair analysis We set out the corresponding value of properties of

the existing product (as shown in Tab.3), then we get both sets that we need in SPA.

We compared two sets of the corresponding properties, and find that there are no opposite characteristics, the common characteristics are as following: the material of top dome; the performance of top dome; the material of Diffuser. The discrepant characteristics are the remaining three characteristics. And we use the priority as the basis of calculation in SPA. The relational degree is calculated as follows:

U=(149.3+134.9+238.3)/1214.87+

(214.3/1214.87)0.9+(168.6/1214.87)0.7+

(309.3/1214.87)0.85=0.9025 (2)

That is to say, there’s 90.25% similarity between the tubular skylight system and the market demand product, it has high match degree. So we can get the conclusion that the tubular skylight system has reached the vast majority of the market demands, it can be widely commercialized and industrialized. 4 Conclusion and follow-up study

This study builds a systematic analysis method to assess the market potential of emerging technologies and products at the idea of SPA, we think it is a structural analysis method as it focuses on the coincidence between the market requirements and technology supplies, accurately grasps the key point of the analysis. And we assess the future market potential of tubular skylight system as the specific example; in the end we get the match degree between the tubular skylight system and the market demand product. The follow-up study is to do more research of details, so that we can further improve its application.

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