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© OECD/IEA 2018
IEA Energy Efficiency 2018 and World Energy Outlook 2018 Kevin Lane
Brussels, 27 November 2018
IEA
2 © OECD/IEA 2018
World Energy Outlook 2018
• Global trends, outlooks - Fuel (Oil, gas, coal) - Energy efficiency and renewables
• Based on scenarios to 2040 - Simulation model, detailed data - Current Policy Scenario (CPS) - New Policy Scenario (NPS) - Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)
• Special focus on electricity - Outlook supply, demand - Alternative Future is Electric Scenario (FES)
• Report available, and some findings at: www.iea.org/weo2018
3 © OECD/IEA 2018
Energy Efficiency 2018
• Global trends and outlooks - Energy intensity and efficiency trends - Policy progress and trends - Introduction to efficient world scenario - IEA Efficient World Strategy
• Sector chapters - Transport, Buildings and Industry
• Investment finance and business models
• Energy Efficiency in Emerging Economies - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa
• Available for free from www.iea.org/efficiency2018
4 © OECD/IEA 2018
Recent trends in energy efficiency
5 © OECD/IEA 2018
Global energy demand rose by nearly 2% in 2017, the fastest rise this decade, driven by economic growth and changes in consumer behaviour.
Change in global primary energy demand, 2011-17
2017 saw a resurgence in global demand growth
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Adapted from IEA (forthcoming), World Energy Outlook 2018; IEA (2018c) World Energy Statistics and Balances 2018 (database)
6 © OECD/IEA 2018
Global primary energy intensity improved in 2017, but at the slowest rate this decade. The rate of global improvement would have been worse if not for continuing gains in China.
Annual change in global primary energy intensity, 2011-17
Global energy intensity is improving at a slower rate
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Global Global without China
Source: Adapted from IEA (forthcoming), World Energy Outlook 2018; IEA (2018c) World Energy Statistics and Balances 2018 (database)
7 © OECD/IEA 2018
Energy intensity is improving across major economies, but the rate of change and relationship to energy demand varies.
Primary energy demand, GDP and energy intensity in selected economies, 2000-17
Energy use and intensity trends differ by country and region
60
80
100
120
140
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
20
17
Index
(200
0=10
0)
European Union
Primary energy demand GDP Energy intensity
60 70 80 90
100 110 120 130 140
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United States
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
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China
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
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India
8 © OECD/IEA 2018
The impacts of energy efficiency are already significant
Energy efficiency improvements since 2000 prevented 12% more energy use and emissions in 2017.
Global final energy use and emissions with and without energy efficiency improvements, 2000-17
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Index
(200
0 = 10
0)
Energy use
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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Emissions
100
120
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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Energy useGDP
Withoutenergyefficiency
Actual
9 © OECD/IEA 2018
Why is energy use on the rise?
Global energy efficiency is improving, but its impact is being overwhelmed by factors that create more demand for energy.
Decomposition of final energy use in the world’s major economies
Note: Countries covered are IEA countries plus China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina.
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350
2000 energy use More buildings and appliances
Less efficient transport patterns
Increased activity Shifts in economic activity
Improvements in energy efficiency
2017 energy use
EJ
10 © OECD/IEA 2018
Growth in building sector energy use is linked to increasing floor space and appliance ownership. Space heating is driving savings across all building types.
Decomposition of buildings global final energy use, 2000-17 (left) and end-use contribution to efficiency savings (right)
Buildings sector energy use is continuing to rise
0
40
80
120
160
2000 Activity Structure Efficiency 2017
EJ
0
2
4
6
8
Residential Non-Residential
EJ
Appliances
Cooking
Lighting
Water heating
Space cooling
Space heating
Sources: Adapted from IEA (2018a), Energy Efficiency Indicators 2018 (database) and IEA Energy Technology Perspectives Buildings model (www.iea.org/etp/etpmodel/buildings/).
11 © OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency policy trends
12 © OECD/IEA 2018
Nearly 34% of global energy use in 2017 was covered by mandatory energy efficiency policies. A 1.1% increase on levels in 2016
Annual additions to the global coverage of mandatory energy efficiency policies, 2013-17
Coverage is growing slowly
28% 30% 32% 34%
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Existing policies New policies
13 © OECD/IEA 2018
Strength is an important indicator of the impact that mandatory policies could have. In the past two years, policies have been strengthened at a slower rate than preceding years.
Annual changes in mandatory policy strength, 2000-17
Coverage is just the first part of the policy story
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% ch
ange
in po
licy s
treng
th
14 © OECD/IEA 2018
Nearly 18% of global energy use is captured by a utility obligation. However, the implementation of new policies has slowed, with few new or strengthened policies in the last few years.
Coverage of energy utility obligations, by country/region
Obligation schemes have become a common policy tool
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Shar
e of g
lobal
total
final
cons
umpti
on
Other
Brazil
United States
China
Europe
15 © OECD/IEA 2018
World Energy Outlook 2018 New Policy Scenario: What we expect to happen with current and expected policies Sustainable Development Scenario: To meet climate and SDG goals
16 © OECD/IEA 2018
Energy context
• Mixed signals about the pace & direction of change in global energy: - Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility - Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’ - Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a
push - Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in
2018 - For the first time, the global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion
• Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of its reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate
• Policy makers need well-grounded insights about different possible futures & how they come about. The WEO provides two key scenarios:
- New Policies Scenario - Sustainable Development Scenario
17 © OECD/IEA 2018
2000
1000 2000 3000 4000
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Africa
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SoutheastAsia
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Mtoe
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2010
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2011
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2012
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2013
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2014
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2015
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2016
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2017
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2018
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2019
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2020
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China
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Energy demand
In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
2021
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China
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2022
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2023
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2024
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Mtoe
2025
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China
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India
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Mtoe
2026
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China
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India
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Mtoe
2027
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China
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India
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Mtoe
2028
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China
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2029
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Mtoe
2030
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Mtoe
2031
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2032
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2033
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2034
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2035
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2036
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2037
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2038
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2039
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2040
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2040
1000 2000 3000 4000
China
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Mtoe
By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
The new geography of energy
18 © OECD/IEA 2018
Oil
Advanced economies
Developing economies
Gas
Advanced economies
Developing economies
The increase in demand would be twice as large without continued improvements in energy efficiency, a powerful tool to address energy security & sustainability concerns
Coal
Advanced economies
Developing economies
Change in global energy demand, 2017-2040
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
Renewables & nuclear
Mtoe
Advanced economies
Developing economies
Ren
ewab
les
Nuclear
Industry
Other
Power
Cars
Other
Petro- chemical
Cars
Power
Other
Power
Fuelling the demand for energy
19 © OECD/IEA 2018
All sources of flexibility
needed
6
5
2
1
Mobiliseexistingpowersystemflexibility
4
3
Targeted investment in
flexibility needed
Flexibility: cornerstone of tomorrow’s systems
Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2017
Higher shares of variable renewables raise flexibility needs and call for reforms to deliver investment in power plants, grids & energy storage, and unlock demand-side response
Integration phase
WindandsolarPVshareofgeneration0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
India
China
United States
India
China
United States
European Union European Union Germany
Germany
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2030
20 © OECD/IEA 2018
25
50
75
100
125
20152020 2030 2040
Oil demand (mb/d)
8
16
24
32
40
20152020 2030 2040
Energy-related CO2 emissions
(Gt)
Increased electrification leads to a peak in oil demand
Scenario:
FutureisElectricNewPolicies
, avoids 2 million air pollution-related premature deaths, but does not necessarily lead to large CO2 emissions reductions
25
30
35
40
45
20152020 2030 2040
Electricity demand (thousand TWh)
20
What if the future is electric?
21 © OECD/IEA 2018
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation
12
18
24
30
2017 2025 2030 2035 2040
GtCO2 36
Sustainable Development Scenario
Coal-fired power plants
Increased room room to manoeuvre
6
New Policies Scenario
Existing and under construction power plants, factories, buildings etc.
Can we unlock a different energy future?
22 © OECD/IEA 2018
An Efficient World Scenario
23 © OECD/IEA 2018
What does a more efficient world look like?
• The world is missing opportunities to improve energy efficiency, policy is not delivering the full potential gains that are available with current technology.
• What is possible with greater efforts on energy efficiency? The IEA’s new Efficient World Scenario answers the question:
What would happen by 2040 if countries realised all the economically viable energy efficiency potential that is available today?
The Economy The Energy System
The Environment
24 © OECD/IEA 2018
There is significant cost-effective savings potential in every sector
Only one third of the potential cumulative energy savings from efficiency gains by 2040 are realised in the NPS.
The majority of potential across all sectors is realised in the EWS.
Cumulative energy savings in NPS and additional potential in the EWS to 2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Industry Transport Buildings
EJ
Efficient World Scenario
New Policies Scenario
25 © OECD/IEA 2018
The adoption of all cost-effective energy efficiency measures between now and 2040 could see energy use fall by 16% compared to the NPS. Emissions would fall by over 10% compared to current levels.
Energy use and emissions in the Efficient World Scenario and New Policies Scenario
Global final energy use and emissions would be vastly different
9
10
11
12
13
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gtoe
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30
33
36
2016
2018
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GtCO2-eq
Thou
sand
s
9
10
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gtoe
Transport Buildings Industry Historical NPS EWS
26 © OECD/IEA 2018
In the Efficient World Scenario, energy intensity will improve by around 3% per year, a step-up from current levels, resulting in minimal increases in energy demand, despite the global economy doubling.
Global primary energy demand, GDP and intensity, historically and in the EWS, 2000-40
Energy intensity improvements will accelerate
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Index (2000=100)
Primary energy demand GDP Energy intensity Primary energy demand (EWS) GDP (EWS) Energy intensity (EWS)
27 © OECD/IEA 2018
Energy productivity can more than double, from USD 9000 to USD 18 000 of GDP for every tonne of oil equivalent of energy demand.
Doubling global GDP for a marginal increase in energy demand
Now 2040
GDP
Energy demand
28 © OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency bring benefits to all levels of the economy
The Efficient World Scenario also fully delivers the energy efficiency target (Target 7.3) of the UN Sustainable Development Goals
USD 700 billion
Avoided energy imports in the EU, China and India
USD 600 billion
Avoided energy expenditure in
industry
USD 550 billion
Avoided household energy spending
29 © OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency would deliver immediate environmental benefits
The EWS results in an early emissions peak and over 40% of the abatement required by 2040 to be in line with Paris targets. Energy efficiency is essential to achieving global climate targets.
Greenhouse emissions in the NPS and EWS, 2000-40 (left) and air pollutant emissions in the EWS, 2015-40 (right)
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt CO2-eq Greenhouse gas emissions
Historic Baseline Efficient World Scenario 0
60
120
180
240
2015 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mt Air pollutant emissions
PM2.5
NOx
SO2
30 © OECD/IEA 2018
Buildings energy use has been rising, but could stay flat to 2040, despite 60% more floor space. Buildings energy intensity has been improving at 1.6% per year, but this could be 2.2% per year.
Buildings energy use and energy intensity, 2000-40
Buildings energy intensity has been improving
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2005 2010 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Historical Efficient World Scenario
GJ/m2 floor area EJ
Total demand
Intensity (floor area)
31 © OECD/IEA 2018
The IEA’s Efficient World Strategy shows where policy action must focus
The EWS opportunity Key policy actions
Transport
• Energy demand could stay flat, despite doubling activity levels.
• Passenger cars and trucks offer two-thirds of potential savings.
• Stronger and broader policies for cars and trucks and non-road modes.
• Provide incentives to support uptake and sustainable use of efficient vehicles.
Buildings
• Building space could increase by 60% for no additional energy use.
• Space heating, cooling and water heating offer 60% of savings.
• Efficiency policies, targeting both new and existing building stock and appliances.
• Incentives to encourage adoption of efficient appliances and deep energy retrofits.
Industry
• Value-added per unit of energy could double.
• Less energy-intensive industry offers 70% of potential savings.
• Standards for key industrial equipment, including electric heat pumps and motors.
• Incentives to encourage the adoption of energy management systems.
32 © OECD/IEA 2018
Concluding remarks
• Global energy demand rose by nearly 2% in 2017, and CO2 emissions rose by 1.4% after three years of being flat.
• The IEA EWS shows a 2040 world with double GDP, 20% more people and 60% more building space, with lower emissions than today
• Efficiency can reduce air pollution, imports and consumer bills, and EWS maps out the path to delivering the UN SDG on energy efficiency
• The efficiency opportunities are cost-effective and use only technology available today, but require a significant step up in policy action
• Investments need to double now and double again after 2025, but these investments will payback threefold on energy savings alone
• There are good examples today of all the policies required for tomorrow. These form the basis for increased ambition and impact.
33 © OECD/IEA 2018
www.iea.org IEA
34 © OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency and renewables account for 80% of the cumulative CO2 emission reduction in the SDS
Emissions in the New Policies Scenario and Sustainable Development Scenario
The EWS is the efficiency component of the SDS scenario (2017)
35 © OECD/IEA 2018
Key messages
• Global energy demand rose by nearly 2% in 2017, and CO2 emissions rose by 1.4% after three years of being flat.
• Energy efficiency improvements are enhancing productivity and reducing emissions, but policy action is weakening.
• Expectation is increasing global energy consumption and emissions
• The Efficient World Scenario sees global GDP double between now and 2040 with emissions lower than today, and large savings in air pollution and energy costs.
• The IEA sets out an Efficient World Strategy that, through cost-effective measures and available technologies, unlocks the untapped potential for energy efficiency.
36 © OECD/IEA 2018
The IEA’s new Efficient World Scenario shows that global energy intensity improvements could average 2.9% per year to 2040, a 75% increase on levels observed in 2017.
Global energy intensity improvement in the in the Efficient World Scenario, 2017-40
A lot of energy efficiency potential remains untapped
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 EWS 2017-40