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Identifying and Managing Uncertainty for Post-closure Safety
Assessments in Support of Repository Development
Programmes
Dr John Heathcote, Dounreay Site Restoration Ltd
Dr Roger Wilmot, Galson Sciences Ltd
Introductions
• Who we are – Name
– Country
– Technical background
• What are we doing/about to do – Something about radioactive waste disposal in
your country
– What you are doing
• What we hope to learn
John Heathcote
• UK
• Hydrogeologist, with particular expertise in chemistry and numerical techniques
• Now making the case for residual contamination and historic waste disposals at Dounreay
• Previously involved in UK’s deep disposal programme
Roger Wilmot
• UK
• Geologist, with experience in developing safety cases and regulatory review
• Currently working on programmes in UK, Sweden, Belgium
• Supported development of new regulatory guidance in UK
Isabel Paiva IST/ITN/UPSR
• PT
• Chemist/Bio and other adventures (Ph.D in Chem.Eng.)
• Radioactive waste management expertise (UMM/membranes)
• Teaching at the University and training of professionals
• National representative (Vienna, Brussels)
• Learning Geology and Geochemistry! Love it!
• Working in the lab with soils, rañas and 137Cs!
• Keen to learn a lot from this Course! New subject!
BEFORE
AFTER
AMAZING SITE!
Peter Ormai • Hungarian
• Radiochemistry, PhD
• Radioactive waste management at NPP, then at RWM Agency
• Previously leading expert in Hungary’s disposal programmes
• IAEA involvement: ISAM, ASAM (WG leader)
• IAEA, Waste Technology Section
Course Objectives
• At the end of the course you should:
– Have an understanding of the significance of uncertainty
– Know how to perform assessment calculations involving uncertain data
– Have an understanding of how to manage uncertainty in assessments
– Have thought about how to communicate uncertainty
Course Outline
• It is a journey! We will learn from each other. Please interact and ask questions. We WILL be asking you questions!
• Presentation of theory relevant to uncertainty
• International approaches to uncertainty
• Working with uncertainty to produce a safety assessment – using worked examples
• Management of uncertainty
• Communication of results to stakeholders