Support in Policy-making

Identification of flood disaster risk for the formulation of strategies

Hisaya SAWANOChief Researcher, ICHARM

10 January, 2017

International Centre for Water Hazards and Risk Management (ICHARM)Public Works Research Institute (PWRI)

Tsukuba, Japan

Policy making process

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① Identify target hazards②Analyze flood disaster risk③Formulate strategies

Create enabling environment(Capacity Development)

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① Identify target hazards

Data archiving and arrangement

Policy making process

(Field Data Collection)Field investigation after flood disasters (rapid assessment of hazard and damages)Satellite imagesPast records of hazard and damages

Flood hazard analysis

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② Analyze flood disaster risk Identification of hazard, exposure and 

vulnerability Assessment of current disaster risk Create common understanding of 

disaster risk among stakeholders

③ Formulate strategies Assessment of the effectiveness of flood 

disaster risk reduction strategies

Policy making process

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Create enabling environment(Capacity Development) Institutional  Organizational Individual

Based on the role sharing among National and local governments, community

(Identification of stakeholders and create national platform)

Engineers, Administrators and Residential People

Policy making process

Challenges in Myanmar

ADB TA-8456, Republic of the Union of MyanmarTransformation of Urban Management

- Part II Flood Management -

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ADB TA‐8456 aims to promote sustainable urban development in Myanmar cities by building the institutional capacity

(Implementing Agency)Part I (Urban Management): Urban Research and Development Institute, Ministry of Construction

Part II (Flood Management): Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Ministry of Transport and Communications

ADB TA-8456 Part II (Flood Management)

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Part I: Urban ManagementYangon, Mandalay, Mawlamyine Pathein, Lashio and  Monywa

Part II: Flood ManagementYangon, Mandalay, Mawlamyine 

Target Areas

Mandalay

YangonMawlamyine

Outline of TA-8456

Implementation Period: July 2014 to November 2016

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(Implementing agency and three cities) Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ministry of Transport and

Communications Yangon City Development Committee, Yangon Regional Government Mandalay City Development Committee, Mandalay Regional Government Mawlamyine District Government, Mon State Government(Organization relevant to flood and storm surge risk management) Relief and Resettlement Department, Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and

Resettlement Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department, Ministry of Agriculture,

livestock and Irrigation Land Survey Department, Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry Myanmar Port Authority, Ministry of Transport and Communications General Administration Department, Ministry of Home Affairs Department of Urban and Housing Development, Ministry of Construction Department of Agriculture Planning, Ministry of Agriculture, livestock and Irrigation Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems, Ministry of

Transport and Communications Myanmar Engineering Society

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Create “Implementation Network”

Objectives (Part II: Flood Management) :

Create Enabling Environment

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Flood hazard analysis(Develop simulation models of floods and storm surges)

Flood Hazard Map(Yangon, Mandalay, Mawlamyine)

Flood disaster risk assessment(Simulate damages caused by flood)

Capacity Development(Engineering officers)(Train officers on hydro-meteorological analysis and flood hazard mapping)

Damage Assessment(Agricultural damage)

Capacity Development(All government officers)(Make them understand contents and meaning of hazard assessment and disaster risk assessment)

Business Plan

ACTIVITIES:‐ Develop simulation models of floods and storm surges for three target cities 

‐ Statistic analysis to identify the target flood (100‐year flood, etc.) for flood hazard simulation 

‐ Develop flood hazard map to show the current hazard condition

Identify Target Hazards (Flood Hazard Analysis)

11RRI Model Storm Surge Model

Develop Simulation ModelRRI Model Simulation for Cyclone Komen in Nyaung Don using Satellite Data

Comparison of simulated results and actual inundated area for Nyaung Don

a b c

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Flood Hazard Map (Yangon) (May 2007 rainfall)

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Flood Hazard Map (Yangon) (100yr-flood)

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Challenges: Data Collection

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Basic AdvancedLand Elevation Satellite Image Aerial Photo Ground Survey

Land Use Global Data (Website Data)

Field Data

Rainfall  Global Data (Website Data)

Ground Rain Gauge (Daily Data)

Ground Rain Gauge (Hourly Data)

River Flow Water Level Water  Level and Discharge

Water Level and Discharge (Peak)

River Cross Section

Estimated(Rectangular)

Measured Value

Tidal Level Peak (Only Highest Data)

Hourly Data

Drainage facility Canal (Estimated)

Canal (Measured ) Canal and all drainage pipe 

Past Inundation Record

Satellite Image Field Observation

ACTIVITIES:‐ Introduce a concept of risk assessment and its utilization‐ Simulate agricultural damage 

Flood disaster risk assessment1. Correlate hazard with disaster by investigating 

exposure and vulnerability 2. Simulate damage by using risk indicator (damage

curves)

Analyze Flood Disaster Risk(Disaster Risk Assessment)

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Flood Disaster Risk Assessment

Flood Inundation Area and Depth for 100-year Flood

Mandalay Area (100-year flood)

Yangon Area (100-year flood)

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Flood Disaster Risk AssessmentEstimation of affected people in the flood prone areas (Landscan 2014 Global Population data) (data provider: UT-Battelle and US Department of Energy)

Mandalay Area (100-year flood)

Estimated Affected People (Number):Yangon Area (100-year Flood Case): 771,000

Mandalay Area (100-Year Flood Case): 1,015,000

Yangon Area (100-year flood)

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Risk Indicator (Damage Curves)Flood Disaster Risk Assessment: Damage to Rice-Crops

Flood Damage Curves for Rice-crops (Based on the data from the Philippines)

Flood Disaster Risk AssessmentSimulation of Rice-Crop damages using risk indicators (damage curves)

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(100-year flood)

Damage

Paddy Area(ha)

Estimated

Damage (in

Billion Kyat)

YangonArea 4,566 1.21

MandalayArea 41,938 37.02

Mandalay Area (100-year flood)

Yangon Area (100-year flood)

National Government (MLIT)

Municipalities

Prefectures

Public Service Offices

Submit

o Calculate the damage in monetary value

o Compile and publish Flood Damage Statistics (every year)

o Accumulate the data in the DB server

(within 45 days)

SubmitSubmit

Challenges: Collection of Flood Disaster Damage Datafor Formulation of Risk Indicator

Prefectures

Municipalities

Local Government, etc.(Prefecture, Municipality, etc.)

Aggregate and submit the survey data

Damage Survey(Provide format of

damage survey)Public

infrastructure damages

Public service

damages

General asset damages

(Household, agriculture, etc.)

Public infrastructure

damages

Occurrence of Flood Disaster

Manual for Economic Evaluation of Flood Management (MLIT)

MLIT: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan 21

Statistic Data Archive in Japan (since 1961)

ACTIVITIES: To strengthen the capacity of DMH and related organizations for flood management, series of training has been organized.

(Training on RRI model and Storm Surge model)A. Basic Training Programs on RRI model and Storm Surge

model (TM1, TM2)

B. Training Programs for Trainer Candidates of DMH and IWUMD (TM3, TM4 and follow up trainings)

C. RRI Model Training organized by DMH (11 -15 July 2016)

Create Enabling Environment

22RRI Model Training by DMH

(Training on Flood Disaster Risk Assessment)Training on Flood Disaster Risk Assessmentwas organized for officers of DMH and IWUMD.(30,31 Mar. 1 Apr. 2016)

Formulate StrategiesDisaster Risk = f (Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability)

(Social Aspects and Stakeholder Involvement in IFM, WMO 2006) 23

Formulate Flood Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies Preventive investment (Build Back Better) Land use planning Contingency planning

Identify disaster risk reduction measures Reduce Hazard (Dyke, Dam, Diversion

channel, etc.) Reduce Exposure (Land use, etc.) Reduce Vulnerability (Building code, Early

warning system, Emergency action, etc.)

Formulate Strategies

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N a g o y a

Shonai River

Shin RiverAichi Prefecture

Mikasa River

Dazaifu

Fukuoka Prefecture

Fukuoka

①Tokai heavy rain (September 2000) [Shonai and Shin Rivers, Aichi Prefecture] 

②Fukuoka heavy rain (July 2003) [Mikasa River, Fukuoka Prefecture] 

Simulateddamage for same heavy rain after the preventive

project completed

Cost of Preventive

Project after disaster

Actual damage

￥670 billion

￥71.6 billion

Effectivenessof preventive

project: about

￥550 billion

Total￥463.9 billion (1999 and

2003)

￥55.3 billion

Effectiveness7.7

(=550/71.6)

Simulateddamage for same heavy rain after the preventive

project completed

Cost of Preventive

Project after disaster

Actual damage

Effectivenessof preventive

project: about

￥460 billionEffectiveness

8.3(=460/55.3)

￥120 billion

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Disaster Risk Assessment for Preventive Investment

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

The Way Forward: Recommendations

ACTIVITIES:- Recommendations for DMH

Flood Hazard Analysis Flood Forecasting and Warning Capacity Development

- Recommendations for Implementation Network Organizations on Flood Management Improvement of City Drainage Utilization of Information for River Management Enhancement of the Information System for

Disaster Risk Reduction

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Capacity development for policy-making Flood disaster risk assessment (engineers) Utilization of assessment result (all

stakeholders)

(Components of capacity development) Institutional (legal framework, roles and

responsibilities (national and local)) Organizational (monitoring system, data

management, human resources, equipment) Individual (knowledge, skill, experience)

Challenges

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Thank you very much PWRI and Mt. Tsukuba