Upload
carp-popescu
View
223
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
1/23
Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
on Western European Telecoms Spending
Eric Owen, GVP EMEA Telecoms and Networking
Marta Muoz Mndez-Villamil, Research Director,European Consumer Telecoms
May 12, 2009
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
2/23
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
3/23
10/02/10 3 2009 IDC
AgendaAgenda
Review of overall market for connectivity services in WesternEurope
Focus on consumer sector
Focus on business user sector
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
4/23
10/02/10 4 2009 IDC
Connections/subscriptionsConnections/subscriptions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions
Dedicated
Mobile
Dial
Broadband
Source: IDC European Telecom Services Database, 1Q09
Overall CAGR over theperiod is 0% with marketdeclining from 2012
Total connections is 800million in 2008 whichrepresents just over 2
connections per head ofpopulation
Mobile subscriptionsrepresented 62% of totalconnections in 2008 increasing to 66% by
2013
IDC estimates thatbroadband connectionswill surpass dial in 2014
Total Telecoms Services Connections
by Type in Western Europe
CAGR
2%
5%
-7%
-9%
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
5/23
10/02/10 5 2009 IDC
Voice TrafficVoice Traffic
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Billionso
fMinutes
Mobile
IP VoiceFixed Voice
Source: IDC European Telecom Services Database, 1Q09
Overall CAGR overthe period is -1%, withmarket decliningslowly every year
Monthly traffic perconnection is
approximately 100minutes for mobileand 320 minutes forfixed voice
IDC estimatesindicate that fixed
voice and IP voicetraffic levels will bethe same in 2014
Total Voice Traffic
by Type in Western Europe
CAGR
17%
-11%
4%
51%
29%
23%
10%
48%39%
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
6/23
10/02/10 6 2009 IDC
User SpendingUser Spending
0
50
100
150200
250
300
350
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$Billion
Mobile Voice
Mobile Data
IP VoiceFixed Voice
Fixed Data
Source: IDC European Telecom Services Database, 1Q09
Overall CAGR overthe period is -1%, withmarket declining alittle every year
Voice servicesrepresent 68% of
spending in 2008,reducing to 62% by2013
Mobile servicesgenerated 48% ofspending in 2008
increasing to 52% by2013
West Europe the onlyregion in the worldwith declining market
Total Telecoms Services Spending
by Type in Western Europe
CAGR
19%
1%
-8%
-1%
6%
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
7/2310/02/10 7 2009 IDC
Consumer
62%
Small
Business
17%
Medium
Business
6%
Large
Business
15%
Rest of WE
11%
Benelux
7%
Nordics
6%
France
16%
Germany
18%
Italy
14%
Spain11%
UK
17%
User SpendingUser Spending
Total Telecoms Services Spending
by Type of User in Western Europe
Total Telecoms Services Spending
by Geography in Western Europe
Top 5 countries represent over75% of total spending onconnectivity services
Consumer share will increase alittle over the next two years dueto impact of the economicsituation on the business sector
Source: IDC European Telecom Services Database, 1Q09
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
8/2310/02/10 8 2009 IDC
IDC Telecom VisionIDC Telecom Vision
Telecom operators and network providers have to expand into related and
new markets to capture growth revenue streams
This strategic move has beentaking place for a few years
and is not driven by economicslowdown
This requires transformation bythe telcos, services need to be
Simpler
More accessible
Easier
Revenue
Telecom Market
2000 2015
Data center & Hosting
Media & Advertising
Consumer Electronics
ICT & Managed Services
Software-as-a-service
UC & Collaboration
IPTV
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
9/23Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
European Consumer TrendsMarta Muoz Mndez-Villamil
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
10/2310/02/10 10 2009 IDC
European Consumer Trends AccessEuropean Consumer Trends Access
Consumer Revenues by Access
Type
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
($Millions)
Fixed and broadband Mobile voice
Pure access revenues to decline by
4% CAGR between 2008/2013
Mobile voice revenues represent
over 55% of total access revenues
The increase in broadband access
revenues (3% CAGR) does not
compensate for the decline in
traditional fixed-line revenues (-9%
CAGR) during this period
The largest decline in traditional
fixed-line revenues is to come from
total call spend rather than line
access spend
Source: IDC, European Telecoms Database, 1Q 2009
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
11/2310/02/10 11 2009 IDC
Unlimitedvoice call plans showing some signs of success
Larger allowances over time To retain customers and as part of a bundle
To encourage traffic
Move to stable ARPM Customers not using the entire allowance
Fixed-broadband bundles increase fixed traffic Validity as a tool to fight fixed-line loss and traditional revenue
decline in the long-term questioned
Household broadband penetration expected to increase from51% in 2008 to 62% in 2013
Growth in broadband access allows for some good news
European Consumer Trends AccessEuropean Consumer Trends Access
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
12/2310/02/10 12 2009 IDC
European Consumer Trends ContentEuropean Consumer Trends Content
Consumer content revenues to increase
by 24% CAGR However, content only represents a
small part of the total revenue to SPs.
Comparatively in 2012 contentrevenues are not even of the
access revenues Demand for consumer VoIP services
almost exclusively price driven, butbroadband penetration is a driver.
Heavy users of international
voice minutes Digital music (fixed and mobile) to
become fast growing type of content.
Access model will becomeincreasingly important
Source:/Notes:
Euroepan Consumer Revenues by
Content Type
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
($Millions)
VoIP Music Games Video
Source: IDC, European Consumer Communications and Multimedia Database, 4Q 2008
Note: Includes fixed and mobile content. Video includes video delivered to a PC only,
not to a TV set.
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
13/2310/02/10 13 2009 IDC
European Consumer Trends DTVEuropean Consumer Trends DTV
Digital TV revenues reached over $23bn in 2007
and are set to grow to $37.5bn in 2012 (CAGR10%)
Growth rate drops in 2008 and 2009 as aconsequence of slower analogue to digital migration
Digital packages tend to be more expensivethan analogue ones
Higher proportion of customers choose freeto air DTT or satellite services
Despite crisis, VoD spending is expected togrow considerably as subscribers grow andcatalogues increase. Increasing time indoorsmeans partial disposable income relocationto indoor activities.
Mobile TV (CAGR 70%) and IPTV (CAGR 37%)the two fastest growing platforms, although in
total they only account for 21% of total digital TVconsumer revenues in 2012.
By platform, satellite remains the largestcomponent of revenues ($15bn in 2007 vs $17bnin 2012). Its share, however, will decrease fromnearly 70% of total digital TV revenues to 45% in2012.
Digital TV Revenues
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20
($Million
s)
Digital Terrestrial Satellite Cable IPTV Mobile TV
Source: IDC, European Consumer Communications and Multimedia Database, 4Q2008
Note: Includes VoD. Only includes TV services to a TV set (mobile handsets
included)
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
14/2310/02/10 14 2009 IDC
European Consumer Trends Total MarketEuropean Consumer Trends Total Market
European Consumer Revenues
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
200
8
200
9
201
0
2011
2012
($Mil
lions)
Access revenues Content revenues
Digital TV revenues Mobile data revenues
Medium-term recovery and therole of mobile data
Retention, retention, retention
Saturation leads toretention
Increasing importance of digitalcontent
Differentiator
Retention
Revenue source More but different bundling
Content, mobile, mobilebroadband, devicesSource: IDC Telecoms Database 1Q 2009 and IDC Consumer
Communications and Multimedia Database, 4Q 2008
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
15/23Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
European Business Trends
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
16/2310/02/10 16 2009 IDC
Challenges for ICT ManagersChallenges for ICT Managers
Do more with less in some cases, much less.
Price benchmarking, and matching cheapest offer in-house.
Managing simultaneous transitions to next-gen converged networks,to next-gen Web apps, to VoIP/UC, to cloud.
Twin priorities of managing performance and security pulling inopposite directions.
Caught between CEO (short-term tactical demands for shareholderbenefit; medium-term strategic roadmap), CFO (cost reduction, budgetsqueeze, asset/resource allocation) and end users (security, support,
unsupported devices/apps, new app demands). Usually at odds witheach other.
Responsibilities keep broadening as facilities/services not seen by theIT department before become nodes on the network: phone handsets,PBXs, building security/automation systems, sensor networks, RFID.
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
17/2310/02/10 17 2009 IDC
IP VoiceIP Voice
We have revised our business VoIP forecasts to take into account new information
available from service providers. Most countries show a slowdown in the uptake of business VoIP services as a result
of the economic recession. Our forecast contemplates an improvement at the end of2010. We expect strong "catching-up" trends towards the end of the forecast period.
The balance between CPE-based and hosted VoIP market has been revised.
Traffic mix off-net vs. on-net for the CPE-based VoIP market (IP/TDM trunking andIP voice over VPN) has been adjusted as companies have put on halt or slowedVoIP expansion plans to other sites within their organization.
The number of VoBB connections has been modestly reduced compared to theprevious forecast. The key reason is that availability, marketing push andpenetration developed slower than expected in 2008 in a number of countries. IDCremains upbeat about the growth potential of VoBB services. A growing number ofcustomers, especially in the SMB segments, will choose a cost-effective VoBBsolution on top of their broadband connection, while operators will become moreaggressive in marketing these products.
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
18/2310/02/10 18 2009 IDC
Broadband and MobileBroadband and Mobile
Broadband Services
Forecast lowered slightly due to impact of the economy and mobile broadbandsolutions.
The outlook has been further impacted by a reduced forecast of the number ofteleworkers which in turn impacts business broadband projections.
Mobile Services
The business mobile numbers have been updated in 1Q09 to reflect the currenteconomic and financial downturn.
The impact of companies going out of business, merging and reducing overalllevels of employment will show a reduction in enterprise usage of all services. Weforecast that mobility will be impacted with a reduction in business paid mobile
contracts. Also as mobile spend will now be considered more in line with othercorporate spending as opposed to be left as a local, office administration orindividually billed back expense, we forecast a steeper decrease in the numbers ofnon-formalized connections and revenues.
However, the growth in mobile broadband will continue to provide strong growthover the forecast period.
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
19/2310/02/10 19 2009 IDC
WE Business Data Services OverviewWE Business Data Services Overview
2,384 1,889 1,479 1,134 851 624
3,6403,142
2,6862,271
1,9041,582
10,86211,204
11,76712,351
12,955 13,582
1,6122,005 2,469 3,007
3,6174,295
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
($M)
Ethernet
IP VPN
Digital leased lines
Frame/ATM
CAGR 2008-13 = 1.7%
IDC expects the overall business data network
services market will dip 1.4% in 2009 and return toshallow growth in 2010
The economic situation is hitting capital-intensivenetwork projects and some in-house managed,CPE-based networking.
Conversely, managed services are holding up orare being accelerated by the crisis: an increase in
companies moving to recurring fee-basedservices, moving assets off the balance sheet,and rationalising IT/network resources.
Source: IDC European Telecom Services Database, 1Q09
Business Data Services Spending
by Type of Service in Western Europe
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
20/2310/02/10 20 2009 IDC
IP VPN ServicesIP VPN Services
1,533 1,416 1,358 1,323 1,310 1,305
9,328 9,78710,409 11,028
11,645 12,261
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
($M)
Network-based
CPE-based
CAGR 2008-13 = 4.6%
IP VPN market remains dominated by MPLS-basedservices, which continue to grow in revenue terms.
New IP VPN business is increasingly coming fromexisting customers as the peak of migration fromframe to IP has passed.
Managed CPE-based IP VPN services continue togive way to MPLS services but remain a sizableniche for companies with many small or remotesites, major sites/plants in remote locations, etc.
DIY networks (the IT department buys andmanages CPE to construct a VPN over the publicInternet) remain widespread but are declining ascompanies primary networks.
Source: IDC European Telecom Services Database, 1Q09
IP VPN Service Spending by
Type of Service in Western Europe
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
21/2310/02/10 21 2009 IDC
Carrier Ethernet ServicesCarrier Ethernet Services
99 145 205 283388 524
1,513
1,860
2,265
2,724
3,229
3,771
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
($M)
E-Line
E-LAN
CAGR 2008-13 = 21.7%
Carrier Ethernet remains the hot growtharea of data services.
Ethernet provides low-cost high bandwidthto support large-scale consolidation andhigh-capacity applications:
Network migration
High-bandwidth apps
Datacenter consolidation
Price/performance (cost per Mbps)
Transparent LAN
For some, preserve IP routing in-house
Source: IDC European Telecom Services Database, 1Q09
Carrier Ethernet Services Spending
by Type of Service in Western Europe
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
22/2310/02/10 22 2009 IDC
Recent business user survey suggests that use of Ethernet services
will grow in 2009 at the expense of all other alternatives
Current and Planned Ethernet AdoptionCurrent and Planned Ethernet Adoption
16%20%
24%29%
40%47%
72%
X.25
Carri
erEth
erne
tAT
M
Fram
ere
lay
Priva
telin
e
Man
aged
IPVPN
Self-
man
aged
IPVPN -6%
18%
-3%-2%
-4% -2% -4%
X.25
Carri
erEth
erne
tAT
M
Fram
ere
lay
Priva
telin
e
Man
aged
IPVPN
Self-
man
aged
IPVPN
% of companies using each service
in 2008
% change in no. of companies
over next year
n=672Source: European WAN Manager Survey, 2008
Data Services (IDC #HP08Q, January 2009)
8/8/2019 IDC Impact of the Global Economic Crisis
23/23
Eric Owen
+44 208 9877124
Marta Muoz Mndez-Villamil
+44 208 9877148
Thank YouThank You
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]