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ICUC
Robot Cars and where they can take us
Brad Templeton
Chicken, Chicken
(& Foresight Institute)
ICUC
Robocars are coming
• No longer Science Fiction
• A question of when, not if
• The overwhelming arguments for them
• Green, green, green, safe, safe, safe
• The implications for mass transit
ICUC
They're coming
– DARPA Grand Challenge #1: Total failure
– DARPA Grand Challenge #2: Five cars
– Urban Challenge – 3 winners
– Videos
– Autonomous, not centrally controlled
ICUC
Arguments For it
Death toll, Death toll, Death toll
And don’t forget the maiming!
Geeks can save the planet
ICUC
Accidents
• Kill 45,000 in USA, 1M worldwide, injure far more
• Cost 230 billion dollars (over 2% of GDP)
• Every year we delay, another million die.
ICUC
Congestion
• Congestion wastes 4 to 8 billion hours, 6 billion gallons
• Just timed lights improves city gas mileage 30%
• Hours spent driving -- 50 billion, 10% of total working hours, 5% of waking
ICUC
Parks itself, Charges or refuels itself
• Parks more effeciently, even in driveways
• Solves the battery problem
• Allows experimental fuels with vastly less infrastructure
ICUC
Special features
• Gentle acceleration, constant speed
• Gimbaled turns
• Super-soft suspension
ICUC
The private individuals pay for it
• No hugely expensive ROW needed
• Already more capacity than needed
ICUC
Greener
• Cars: 3500 btu/passenger-mile
• Bus: Also 3500. Trolleybus: 3200
• Light rail: 1500 to 7000
• Heavy Rail: 2200 to 6000. NYC: 3300
• Electric Car: 500-700
• Lightweight electric trike: 300
• Cyclist: 145. Beefeater - about 6,000.
• Pedestrian: 300. Beefeater - about 12,000
ICUC
More advantages
• No parking
• No congestion
• Read/Work
• Don't need licence
• Don't need to own a car
• Cheap
• Safer from accidents
ICUC
BMW 5 and 7Auto-spacing cruise control
Audi, Volvo S80 Lane change warningInfiniti Lane departure prevention
Mercedes Pre-Safe applies brakes before accident. Lexus pre-collision similar
ICUC
Time for Apollo Project
• A major leader, somewhere, must declare the charge.
• Do it not because it’s easy but because it’s hard
• May well happen in Japan, India or China first
ICUC
All I have time for, but
• Barriers
• Downsides
• Engineering Changes
• Deliverbots
• http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/
ICUC
Downsides
• Health• Restructuring of cities, less walking• People taking longer trips, empty trips• Computer Intrusion and Mass Failure• Reworking of car culture• Privacy• Freedom• Jobs
ICUC
Engineering Changes
• Range not a factor
• Acceleration and speed not a factor
• Comfort much more of a factor, soft ride.
• Want to be sharable
• Different safety constraints
• Small width, face-to-face