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ICT SUMMIT 2010
17 February 2010
International ICT IndustrySummit on ICT Economic
Stimulus, Employmentand Investment Policies
Information Technology
Outlook 2010
Graham Vickery OECD
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2010 Outlook Overview
Macroeconomic outlook improved since mid-2009, OECD slow and
hesitant, Asia boom
Macroeconomic and ICT sector projections
successively revised upwards Business confidence picking up but
still low
Unemployment up in 2010 - pressure onconsumer expenditures,
business sentiment low
Government budget deficits are historically high
2
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2010 Outlook Overview
OECD ICT sector near-term outlook: 2009 negative,2010 2-3%
growth, 2011 improve more
ICT employment: production and markets fell in 2009=>
employment falling 2010
ICT markets shifting to non-OECD economies - aroundone-quarter
of global markets, and top 250 ICT firmsincreasingly non-OECD
Will non-OECD economies remain decoupled from
OECD countries? Long-term performance: new goods and services
for
business and consumers, e.g. mobile services
3
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ICT goods output growthDecember 2007-September 2009
Year-on-year percentage change, 3-month moving average
4
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Dec
-07
Jan
-08
Feb
-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun
-08
Jul
-08
Aug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul
-09
Aug
-09
Canada German Swede United Kingdo United StateChina Korea France
Chinese Taip Japan
%
Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010.
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Top 250 ICT firms revenue trends by sector2000-20091
Index 2000 = 100
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Communicationsequipment Electronics &components IT equipment
IT services
Semiconductors Software Telecommunications
Note: Figure does not include Internet firms which had a revenue
increase by more than 800% in 2008 compared to 2000.
1.Data for 2000 to 2004 are based on the ITO 2008 panel of 250
firms. Values for 2009 are estimated based on firms
interimreports.
Source:OECD, Information Technology database, from annual
reports, SEC filings, market financials.
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Top 250 ICT firms revenue growthby economy of registration,
2000-2008
Average annual growth, percentages
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1. 2004-2008 average annual growth rates.Source:OECD,
Information Technology database, from annual reports, SEC filings,
market financials.
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OECD ICT spending by market segment, 2009
7
Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010.
0
25 000
50 000
75 000
100 000
125 000
150 000
175 000
Com puter Hardwa Com puter Softwa Com puter Serv ic
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
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Share of ICT goods in total merchandiseexports, 1996-2008
percentages
8
Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1996 2008
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OECD broadband subscribers per 100
inhabitants, by technology, June 2009
9
Source: OECD Broadband Portal January 2010.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40O th e r F ib re /L AN Cab le DSL
OECD
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What are OECD governments doing inturbulent times?
Policy area Crisis priority
1. ICT skills and employment 15
2. Broadband diffusion 14
3. Enabling environmental impacts of ICTs 11
4. Innovation networks and clusters 10 each
Technology diffusion to businessesR&D programmes
Venture finance
Policy area High priorityIncreased
priority
1. Security of information systems and networks 23 11
2. Broadband d iffusion 21 9
3. Government on-line 21 8
4. ICT R& D programmes 17 11
5. Innovation networks and clusters 17 8
Enabling environmental impacts of ICTs 10 15
Basis: 23 countries indicating at least one ICT policy area with
increased focus foreconomic recovery.
Basis: 27 responding countries.
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How is Turkey performing?ICT policy priorities, OECD and Turkey,
2010
11Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010.
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Did the crisis change anything?ICT priority responses
Areas where Turkeyindicated increased priorityin response to the
economic crisis:
ICT skills and employment
Broadband diffusion
Most prioritised areas across OECD countries: ICT skills and
employment
Broadband diffusion Enabling environmental impacts of ICT (Green
ICTs)
R&D programmes, Venture finance, Innovationnetworks and
clusters, Technology diffusion tobusinesses
