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1-4 March 2010ICAO NGAP Symposium, Montreal 1 1 March 2010ICAO NGAP Symposium 1
IATA Training & Qualification
Initiative (ITQI)
Evidence-Based TrainingCaptain Mike Varney
Project Leader – Evidence-based TrainingICAO NGAP Symposium 1-4 March 2010, Montreal
1-4 March 2010ICAO NGAP Symposium, Montreal 2
1-4 March 2010ICAO NGAP Symposium, Montreal 3
Dakota DC-3 Rand Airport South Africa 2003
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Ilyushin IL-18 Moscow 2005
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Sud SE-210 Caravelle III Zurich July 1961
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1-4 March 2010ICAO NGAP Symposium, Montreal 9
Continental Airlines Boeing 757-200 August 2005
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Airbus A380
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Boeing 787
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JAR-FCL Mandatory Items
Flight Preparation
Before take-off checklist
Engine failure between V1 and V2
Rejected take-off before reaching V1
Instrument departure and arrival procedures
Engine-out Precision Approach to minima
NDB/VOR/LOC approach to MDA Outlook
Go-Around engine-out
Landing critical engine inoperative
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The Airline BurdenCrowding of training requirements
Existing framework
Mandatory items – licensing and operations
Low Visibility mandatory items
Special airport operations
ETOPS, RNP SAAAR, RNAV
Very little scope for effective additional training within
existing cost structure
Too much focus on abnormal procedures
Much more needed in approach & landing
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The Problem
Regulatory prescriptions for flight crewmember training
and checking are based on events, which may be
highly improbable in aeroplanes designed to meet
modern standards.
Training programmes are consequently saturated with
items that may not necessarily mitigate the real risks, or
enhance the safety of modern air transport operations.
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Objective
Develop a new paradigm for competency based training and evaluation of airline pilots based on
evidence
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Working Group
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Flight Operations Areas
Evidence-based Type-Rating and Recurrent
Training (EBT)- ICAO Doc 9868 + ICAO Manual EBT
Multi-Crew Pilot licensing (MPL)- Harmonisation of implementation
Instructor & Evaluator Qualification (IEQ)- ICAO Doc 9868 Qualification standards
Selection Criteria- IATA guidance material
Flight Simulator Training Devices (FSTD)- ICAO Doc 9625 + Data document
Q3 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2010
Aug 2009
1-4 March 2010ICAO NGAP Symposium, Montreal 21 1st March 2010Page 210
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 10 20 30 40 50
Hull Loss
per million departures
Includes western built jets
Excludes training, flight test, war, terrorism
Years Of Operation Sources: Airclaims, Airbus
All aircraft
1st generation
2nd generation3rd generation4th generation
2nd generation:1st generation:
Early jet 2nd jet generation
3rd generation:
Glass-cockpit
Nav display
FMS
4th generation:
FBW
Flight Envelope
Protection
Hull Loss rate – June 2009
ICAO NGAP Sympsium
1-4 March 2010ICAO NGAP Symposium, Montreal 22
Relative Importance of contributing factors
in fatal accidents
(Source: Civil Aviation Safety Data, 1989-2003)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
airport
air traffic control
maintenance
powerplant
environment
aircraft
cockpit crew
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STEADES
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Max vertical acceleration and vertical
speed (at touchdown)A340-300
A340-600
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Max vertical acceleration and vertical
speed (at touchdown)A340-300
A340-600
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Data can mislead
Should we train for the statistically
likely?
We can anticipate 95% of
events
The BIG problem is the
other 5%
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Black Swans
Data is reactive
Accidents are difficult to predict
Pilot behaviour is difficult to predict
When people and complex systems interact, there will always be an
infinite number of possible outcomes
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The Unforeseen, a
“typical” Black Swan!If we could anticipate all, failures
should be designed out (Sioux City)
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Repetitive & foreseeable Unique & unforeseeable
Evidence
What we
know
What we
don’t know
Reactive Proactive System
failures
Environment
Operational
failures
Same skills to
manage the foreseen
and the unforeseen
System
failures
Environment
Operational
failures
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Windshear
Adverse Weather/Ice
Crosswind
ATC
NAV
Loss of comms
Traffic
R/W incursion
Poor Visibility
Wake vortex
Upset
Terrain
Birds
Eng Fail
MEL
Fire
System malfunction
A310
A320
A330
A340
A380
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KSA ElementsThreats
Events
Risk
Matrix
Training
Priorities
Generation
Specific
Training
Guidance
- Jet 1st
- Jet 2nd
- Jet 3rd
- Jet 4th
- Turboprop 1st
- Turboprop 2nd
Guidance for
evaluation &
training
- LOE
- Manoeuvres
- Event Training
- Evaluator
- Instructor
Generation
Specific
Program
Examples
EBT Development Process
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ICAO Manual – EBT
ComprehensiveIncludes Example
ProgramsLink to available
data
ICAO Doc 9868 PANS-TRG
Evidence Based Training
Instructor Qualification
Evaluator Qualification
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KSA Elements
Situation awareness
Communication
Manual aircraft control
Workload management
Flight management, guidance and automation
Knowledge
Application of procedures and knowledge
Problem solving & decision making
Leadership & teamwork
1-4 March 2010ICAO NGAP Symposium, Montreal 35
Emirates - GCAA
Dubai Meetings 15th -16th Nov 2009
Emirates – Airbus – Boeing – IATA
Preliminary Discussions
Emirates – GCAA – Airbus – Boeing
Joint Letter to GCAA EK+IATA
GCAA Agreement 21st Dec 2009
EK adopt EBT – EU OPS 1.978
(ATQP)
Airbus, Boeing, IATA support
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Risk of doing nothing
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Benefits
Encourage “out of the box” thinking with developed methodologies to manage risk
Evidence based programmes adapted by fleet and operation
Greater focus on normal operations
Greater emphasis on human performance
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Improvements in design & reliability
Examine the Evidence
Evolve training from inventory
approach
New Paradigm for Training
Train real skills to
manage real threats