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IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency
Nuclear Electricity in the CEE Region:
Current State and
Development ProspectsR I Facer, NENP-NPTDS, IAEA
IAEA
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH NPPand others who have considered NPP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Blue, countries with NPPs,
Pink, countries that considered NPPs
IAEA
Reasons why not proceeded in the past
• Finance• Nuclear economics unattractive• Infrastructure costs high• Costs of new facilities high• Liability for waste uncertain
• Manpower unavailable• Lack of skills• Lack of trained manpower
• Public distrust• Private industry decisions• Alternatives available
IAEA
Changing conditions
• Economics of alternative energy sources• Rising price of fossil fuels
• Nuclear continuing in many countries• Identified success for countries that have
nuclear power
• Security of supply• Independence from single supplier
• Growing environmental concerns over fossil fuels
IAEA
Global Nuclear Capacity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
GW
(e)
NA WE Russia & EE Japan & ROK Developing
North America
Western Europe
FSU / EE
Japan / ROK
Developing countries
IAEA
World Primary Energy Demand
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear power
Other renewables
Hydropower
IAEA
Into Uncharted Territory:The Earth out of Balance
Vostok RecordIPCC Scenario
Current(2003)
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
400 300 200 100 0 Age (thousands of years before present)
COCO22 trapped in Ice Cores trapped in Ice Cores (ppm)(ppm)
IPCC Projection
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
pp
mv/y
r
IAEA
Climate Change: It Is Already Occurring
An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming World.
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
IAEA
Technologies Exist to Begin to Take Action
R Socolow, Science 2004
IAEA
Agency Activities
• Regional Europe TC Projects• Operational Support
• Safety/regulatory support
• National Projects• Energy Planning, capacity building
• License renewal/Life extension
• Infrastructure support
• Specific national requests
IAEA
Strengthening capabilities for NPP performance and service lifeStrengthening capabilities for NPP performance and service life
• Experience over the past four years
World Regional Europe
Increase in installed capacity
2.07% 2.8%
Increase output 7.4% 16.9%
Additional TWH/year
42.18
Additional Annual Revenue
$25M per TWH
IAEA
World Energy today
Energy consumption
(GJ/cap)
Electricity Consumption
(MWh/cap)
North America 347 13.8
Western Europe 150 6.3
Eastern Europe 130 4.2
Middle East and South Asia
28 0.7
Africa 26 0.6
Far East 56 2.2
World Average 71 2.6
IAEA
Prognosis for the future
• World demand increases
• Asia increases much faster than world average
• Fossil fuel use has massive increase
• Environmental stress
IAEA
CEE
Number of NPP units
% of all electricity from nuclear
Bulgaria 4 42
Czech R 8 31
Finland 4 27
Hungary 4 34
Lithuania 1 72
Romania 1 10
Slovakia 6 55
Slovenia 1 39
Ukraine 15 51
IAEA
Nuclear Support
In the Countries where nuclear power contributes significantly to the national electricity supply there is broad political consensus that nuclear power should continue
IAEA
CEE Nuclear plans (existing nuclear countries)
Planned new units
Continued operation and license renewal
Bulgaria Yes yes
Czech R Yes
Finland Yes Yes
Hungary Yes
Lithuania Possible No
Romania Yes Completion of delayed plant
Yes
Slovakia Yes
Slovenia Yes
Ukraine Yes Yes
IAEA
Other Countries plans
• Several Countries have expressed interest recently, particularly since Paris Conference “Nuclear Power for the 21st Century” at which 34 Ministers presented speeches discussing their countries interest in possible nuclear power plants in the future.
• At present there are 24 nuclear plants under construction in 9 countries
IAEA
European Green Paper
• Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply (2000)
• Three Main Points• Increasing Dependence upon external energy
sources (70% by 2030)
• Little scope to influence energy supply conditions
• Not in a position to respond to challenge of Climate Change
IAEA
European Context
• Nuclear can reduce external dependence upon fossil energy
• Nuclear can provide energy without Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Nuclear can provide diversity of national energy supply and improved national energy supply security
IAEA
Nuclear Availability
• Technology available now for large nuclear plant, in an integrated grid system• Several plants being built worldwide that could be used
in Europe
• Several designs approaching implementation for small or medium sized reactors that could be used on a more localised basis.
• European Infrastructure exists that could support the introduction of a nuclear plant for any country in Europe
IAEA
Nuclear fuel and waste
• Recent speech by US Secretary of State for Energy• US sees fuel cycle states offering ‘cradle to
grave’ fuel cycle services, leasing fuel and then taking it back for reprocessing and disposition.
• This service is already available from Russia, and hence should develop into the normal means of fuel supply and removal service
IAEA
Waste storage
• Generally this is a technically solved problem, and the future position of return of fuel to the supplier country should reduce the number of storage locations that are needed.
IAEA
Nuclear and Renewables
• Nuclear power should not be seen as competing with renewable energy systems
• Both renewable systems and high quality nuclear power are needed to ensure a secure energy supply system
IAEA
The next steps
• Nuclear needs to be recognised as a significant potential energy source for Europe
• For countries that do not already operate nuclear power plants the IAEA can provide support to develop and strengthen the Infrastructure in these countries
• Action is needed quickly to avoid a significant problem for Europe in terms of energy supply security
IAEA
The end, thank you