I. Testing Theories and Hypotheses in Micro and in Macro Sociology A. Three Criteria of Causal Explanations 3 B. Experimental Research C. Field Research What does theory do? Description . Gives us the conceptual tools to see social reality more fully. Explanation . Most sociological theory attempts to identify causal interrelationships Independent Variable Dependent Variable Criteria of Causation 1) Time Order independent variable must be an antecedent variable 2) Correlation a necessary but not sufficient condition 3) Non-spuriousness ruling out alternative explanations Time Order is Not Always Obvious Web Use Tolerance A finding from the 2000 General Social Survey But which comes first? And is there a causal relationship? Measuring Correlations Measures of correlation measure the strength of the association of two or more variables Correlation coefficients vary from 1.0 to +1.0 They must be examined for statistical significance Positive and negative correlations can both indicate causal relations But correlation does not always indicate causation Nonspuriousness: Is the correlation spurious ? Variable A Variable B is correlated with A Third Variable is not causally related to What is spurious about a spurious correlation is not the correlation. The correlation is real. It is the causal interpretation which is spurious. Some Spurious Correlations Storks( ) and birth rates Storks High Birth Rates Rural Areas X Some Spurious Correlations Large Hands Shoplifting Gender hand size and shoplifting X Some Spurious Correlations Marijuana Use Good health Youth marijuana use and health X Do music lessons make better students? Music Lessons High SAT Scores What variables might explain the relationship? ? Is this correlation spurious? Web Use Tolerance What variables might explain this relationship? ? Is this correlation spurious? Experimental Research: The Asch Experiment Some Key Terms experimental variable randomization test of significance Asch s Findings A substantial proportion of subjects conformed to the group consensus But a significant proportion (25%) did not conform no matter what It did not take a large minority to increase resistance to group pressure to conform Experimental Research: What are its strengths and limitations? Advantage: can manipulate the relevant variables Disadvantage: can t study most things this way. Most sociological research uses nonexperimental research design Field Research (Participant Observation) What are its strengths? Provides a much greater range of data--a much greater feel for the subject Only way to find out many things Researcher can approach subjects without preconceptions Can adjust research strategy along the way Field Research (Participant Observation) What are its limitations? Usually a sample of one Researcher s perceptions may be distorted by bias Hawthorne effect the importance of replication Lofland and Stark Study What was the dependent variable? ? What did Lofland and Stark conclude was the major independent variable? ? conversion as an act of conformity Why is Heaven s Gate the exception that proves the rule? (1997 group suicide of 39 members) the principle of dense origins they didn t recruit through dense social networks in 22 years the group hardly grew at all