Ist Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop

San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003

LA-06Climate changeWater resourcesExtreme events

Assessment of some GCM’s features and Applications Assessment of some GCM’s features and Applications of Downscaling in the Central American Regionof Downscaling in the Central American Region

Eric J. Alfaro and Jorge A. Amador

Center for Geophysical Research (CIGEFI), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of Physics),

Collaborators:Werner Stolz, IMN and CIGEFI-UCR

Erick Rivera, CIGEFI-UCRMauricio Blanco, CIGEFI-UCR

University of Costa Rica27-30, May 2003

Downscaling, Why?• It is justified whenever GCM (or RCM) simulations of

variable(s) used for impacts modelling are unrealistic at the temporal and spatial scales of interest, either because the impact scales are below the climate model’s resolution, or because of model deficiencies. At the same time the GCM must have demonstrable skill for large-scale variables that are strongly correlated with local processes. (Wilby & Dawson, 2001).

Zonal Wind, u, Est. Juan Santamaría

Some GCM’s Used

• CSIRO (Australia)

• CCCma (Canadá)

• HadCM3 (Inglaterra)

• NCAR-PCM (USA):

• ECHAM4.5 (EC)

GCM’s Grid Points, Wind Magnitude

15°N

NCAR-vientos

CSIRO-vientos

CCCma-vientos

HadCM3-vientos

19°N

CSIRO vrs. REANÁLISIS 15.11°N 81.56°O

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mes

m/s

reanálisis csiro

CSIRO vrs. REANÁLISIS 18.26°N 81.56°O

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mes

m/s

reanálisis csiro

CSIRO vrs. REANÁLISIS11.95°N 81.56°O

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mes

m/s

reanálisis csiro

Wind

Wind

HadCM3 vrs. REANÁLISIS15°N, 78.75°O

4

9

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mes

m/s

Reanálisis HadCM3

HadCM3 vrs. REANÁLISIS 17.5°N, 78.75°O

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mes

m/s

REANÁLISIS HadCM3

HadCM3 vrs. REANÁLISIS 12.5°N, 78.75°O

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mes

m/s

REANÁLISIS HadCM3

ECHAM4.5 Member 09 Wind Magnitude(Caribbean)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthsW

ind

mag

nit

ud

e (m

/s)

(10ºN - 20ºN, 70ºW - 85ºW) (9ºN - 15ºN, 77ºW - 83ºW)

ECHAM4.5 Member 09 Wind Magnitude(Eastern Pacific Warm Pool)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

Win

d m

agn

itu

de

(m/s

)

(5ºN - 15ºN, 85ºW - 110ºW)

ECHAM4.5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00Z.

ECHAM4.5 Member 09 Precipitation(Caribbean)

0

4

8

12

16

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MonthsP

reci

pit

atio

n

(mm

/day

)

(10ºN - 20ºN, 70ºW - 85ºW) (9ºN - 15ºN, 77ºW - 83ºW)

ECHAM4.5 Member 09 Precipitation(Eastern Pacific Warm Pool)

0

4

8

12

16

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(m

m/d

ay)

(5ºN - 15ºN, 85ºW - 110ºW)

ECHAM4.5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00Z.

MSD

CCM3

Tair

Precip

OBS

MSD

ITCZ

observed

CCM3

SAN ANDRÉS ISLAND: Rainfall Climatology 1971-2000

15°N

19°N

Isla de San Andrés

Isla de San Andrés (climatología de lluvia, 1971- 2000)

050

100150200250

300350

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12mes

mm

GCM’s Grid Points, Rainfall

15°N

NCAR-lluvia

CSIRO-lluvia

CCCma-lluvia

HadCM3-lluvia

17°N

HadCM3 vrs. Grilla16.25°N, 76.88°O

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mes

mm

/día

grilla HadCM3

NCAR vrs. grilla 16.25°N, 80.625°O

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mes

mm

/día

grilla NCAR

HadCM3

HadCM3

Col. Dra. Xian Fu, UEA

MAD, IPCC Data Temp(°C) Prec(mm)

DJF JJA DJF JJACGCM2 2.18 1.79 171.36 310.24CSIROmk2 2.14 1.86 165.84 239.86CSM1.3 2.23 2.13 197.72 382.55 ECHam4 3.09 1.76 181.91 227.83GFDLR15b 1.98 1.87 153.90 272.06MRI2 2.73 2.65 201.23 455.85 CCSRNIES2 2.13 2.32 181.82 317.30 DOEPCM 2.49 2.29 172.40 441.73 HadCM3 2.33 2.46 166.87 355.21

A1: a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic, cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.

Resolución:

3.7° lat x 3.75° lon

-100 -95 -90 -85 -80 -75 -706

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Records UsedCaribe Pacífico Latitud (°) Longitud (°)

Guatemala Insivumeh 14.35 -90.31

Belice Phillip Goldson 17.32 -88.18

El Salvador Santa Ana 13.58 -89.34

Puerto Lempira 15.12 -83.48

Tegucigalpa 14.03 -87.13

Choluteca 13.23 -87.15

Nicaragua Juigalpa 12.06 -85.22

La Lola 10.06 -83.23

Limón 10.00 -83.05

Puntarenas 9.98 -84.77

Liberia 10.60 -85.53

Honduras

Costa Rica

Precipitation Predictor: Vorticity at 850 hPa.

Precipitación, Juigalpa(anual)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2020 2050 2080

Precipitación, Juigalpa(estacional)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1990 2020 2050 2080

Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño

1990 2020 2050 2080Invierno 0,08846106 0,07996316 0,1064712 0,1186404Primavera 2,131456 2,410338 2,755229 3,3157Verano 2,308508 2,746179 3,332825 4,41083Otoño 3,996175 4,507503 5,596557 7,25196

1990 2020 2050 2080Anual 2,13115 2,435996 2,947771 3,774283

PrecipitationPredictor: Specific Humidity at 500 hPa.

Precipitación, Phillip Goldson(estacional)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1990 2020 2050 2080

Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño

Precipitación, Phillip Goldson(anual)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1990 2020 2050 2080

1990 2020 2050 2080Invierno 4,231517 4,811519 5,134129 5,967389Primavera 3,357935 3,775469 4,08587 5,013614Verano 4,192366 4,932047 5,808024 7,202672Otoño 7,160653 7,99516 9,215504 11,25206

1990 2020 2050 2080Anual 4,735618 5,37855 6,060882 7,358934

PrecipitationPredictor: Specific Humidity at 500 hPa.

Precipitación, Choluteca(estacional)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1990 2020 2050 2080

Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño

Precipitación, Choluteca(anual)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1990 2020 2050 2080

1990 2020 2050 2080Invierno 0.329 0.587 0.587 0.727Primavera 3.929 7.263 7.226 8.441Verano 11.452 11.308 11.174 11.945Otoño 13.195 15.158 15.124 18.039

1990 2020 2050 2080Anual 7.226 8.579 8.528 9.788

PrecipitationPredictor: Wind Magnitude at 850 hPa.

Precipitación, Limón(estacional)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1990 2020 2050 2080

Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño

Precipitación, Limón(anual)

-80-60-40-20

020406080

100

1990 2020 2050 2080

1990 2020 2050 2080Invierno 22.678 19.806 18.889 18.832Primavera 21.450 21.148 20.240 20.324Verano 21.632 26.050 25.745 26.181Otoño 20.325 22.017 21.532 22.125

1990 2020 2050 2080Anual 21.521 22.255 21.602 21.866

Temp. minPredictor: Near Surface Specific Humidity.

Temperatura Mínima, Limón(estacional)

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2020 2050 2080

Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño

Temperatura Mínima, Limón(anual)

15

20

25

30

1990 2020 2050 2080

1990 2020 2050 2080Invierno 20.720 21.234 22.141 23.537Primavera 21.862 22.693 23.767 25.438Verano 22.493 23.203 24.146 25.596Otoño 22.059 22.487 23.218 24.171

1990 2020 2050 2080Anual 21.784 22.404 23.318 24.685

Temp. maxPredictor: Near surface Divergence.

Temperatura Máxima, Limón(estacional)

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2020 2050 2080

Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño

Temperatura Máxima, Limón(anual)

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2020 2050 2080

1990 2020 2050 2080Invierno 29.311 29.292 29.283 29.990Primavera 30.355 30.242 30.228 30.245Verano 30.047 30.098 30.088 30.105Otoño 30.254 30.306 30.321 30.307

1990 2020 2050 2080Anual 29.992 29.984 29.980 29.990

Acknowledgements

AIACC

University of Costa Rica

NOAA/OGP