HYDROPOWER GENERATIONIN MEXICO

Jose A. Raynal-Villasenor, Ph. D.

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Universidad de las Americas, Puebla

Outline of Presentation

•Characteristics of power production in Mexico•A comparison of characteristics of power production between Mexico and the US•Actual and forecasted power production in Mexico•Actual and forecasted energy production in Mexico•Actual and forecasted energy production costs in Mexico•The need for small, mini and micro hydropower production in Mexico•Conclusions

Characteristics of Power Production in Mexico

46%

22%

5%2%

3%

22%

Installed Power Capacity by Source in Mexico

(SE, 2010)

Petroleum

Hydropower

Coal

Geotermic

Wind

Nuclear

Petroleum (inde-pendent)

41%

14%7%

3%0%

3%

32%

Power Production by Source in Mexico (SE, 2010)

Petroleum

Hydropower

Coal

Geotermic

Wind

Nuclear

Petroleum (inde-pendent)

A Comparison of Characteristics of Power Production between

Mexico and the USA

24%

7%

45%

4%

20%

Power Production by Source in the USA

PetroleumHydropowerCoalOther RenewablesNuclear

Actual and Forecasted Power Production in Mexico

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Actual and Forecasted Power Production in Mexico (1999-

2030) (SE, 2010)

Years

Pow

er P

rodu

ctio

n (T

W)

Actual and Forecasted Energy Production in Mexico

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Actual and Forecasted Energy Production in Mexico (1999-

2030) (SE, 2010)

Years

Ene

rgy

Pro

duct

ion

(TW

-hr)

Actual and Forecasted Energy Production Costs in Mexico

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Variation of the Cost of Energy in Mexico (1999-2010) (SE, 2010)

Years

Cost

($/K

w-h

r)

The Need for Small, Mini and Micro Hydropower

Production in Mexico

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000

Petroleum and Diesel Con-sumption for Power Pro-

duction in Mexico (1999-2010) (SE, 2010)

PetroleumDiesel

Years

Con

sum

ptio

n (t

hous

ands

of

barr

els)

1999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920100

50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000

Natural Gas Consumption for Power Production in Mexico

(1999-2010) (SE, 2010)

Years

Con

sum

ptio

n (m

illio

ns o

f f

t3)

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Oil Production in Mexico (1976-2010)

Years

Prod

ucti

on

(tho

usan

ds o

f ba

rrel

as p

er d

ay)

1895

1900

1910

1921

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

12.6 13.6 15.2 14.3 16.6 19.725.8

34.9

48.2

66.8

81.2

91.297.5

103.3

112.3

1.5

1.1

-0.5

1.7 1.8

2.7

3.13.4

3.2

2 2.1

1.6

1

Population Growth and Popu-lation Growth Rate in Mexico

(1895-2010)

Years

Popu

lati

on G

row

th (

mill

ions

of

peop

le)

Popu

lati

on G

row

th R

ate(

%)

Hydropower Plants ClassificationBy installed capacity:•Micro hydropower plants: less than 100 kW•Mini hydropower plants: less than 1 MW•Small hydropower plants: less than 30 MW•Conventional hydropower plants: bigger than 30 MW

By head:•Low head: 2-20 m•Medium head: 20-150 m•High head: more than 150 m

Main Watersheds of Mexico

Hydropower Potential Currently not in Use

Diagnosis of Small, Mini and Micro Hydropower Production

in MexicoThere are 34 small and mini hydropower plants with

total installed capacity of 109 MW and with energy production of 479 GW-hr per year.

There were 9 new small hydropower plants projects with a total installed capacity of 139 MW

The estimated potential for small hydropower production is of 3200 MW, just in the states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Tabasco and Puebla

An expected investment of 3 million of US dollars will be done in the period 2005-2015 in hydropower projects

• There is a need to double the power and energy production in the next 20 years in Mexico• The production of fossil fuels is rapidly declining in Mexico• There is almost 76% hydropower potential to be developed in Mexico• In the year 2011 the development of this area of opportunity is almost forgotten, even though there is a huge potential for development in this area

Conclusions

Thank your for your patience and

attention!