HURRICANE HARVEY - First Data › newsroom › assets › ... · In College Station (home of Texas A&M University) 19.64 Near Victoria, TX 15.60 Near Lake Charles, Louisiana 15.41

HURRICANE

HARVEY Economic Impact Analysis Updated September 19, 2017 SpendTrend ®

2

HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS | SEPTEMBER 2017 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Hurricane Harvey

Economic Impact Analysis Record Rainfall Amounts Saturated Houston/Gulf Coast

Location

Rainfall in

Inches

Highlands, Texas (eastern Houston area near the Houston

Ship Channel)

51.88

Friendswood, TX (northern Houston suburb) 49.32

In Beaumont/Port Arthur, Texas 47.35

Near Pasadena, Texas (eastern Houston suburb) 45.74

Near South Houston 44.91

At League City (southeast of Houston) 43.38

At Houston Hobby Airport 37.01

At Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport 31.26

In Galveston 22.84

In College Station (home of Texas A&M University) 19.64

Near Victoria, TX 15.60

Near Lake Charles, Louisiana 15.41

Harvey was a catastrophic flood disaster in southeast Texas

Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 130 mph

near Rockport, Texas on the evening of August 25

Harvey stalled over southeast Texas from August 26-30 as a weakening

hurricane and tropical storm

As a tropical storm, Harvey dropped 40-52" of rainfall in southeast Texas

and southwest Louisiana

All-time continental U.S. tropical cyclone rain records were broken

Harvey triggered flash flooding in parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, and

Tennessee from Aug. 31-Sept. 1

Source: www.weather.com

3


Putting Houston/Gulf Coast and Hurricane Harvey into Perspective

The Houston Metropolitan

area is the 4th Largest

in the United States

(based on GDP).

Some initial

estimates tally the

damages associated with

Harvey at $190 Billion.

As many as 500,000 vehicles were damaged

or destroyed by Harvey, almost double the

losses from Hurricane Sandy.

Oil production was reduced or

interrupted entirely due to Harvey,

resulting in an estimated loss of

2.3 Million barrels per day.

Often described as the “energy capital” of the

world, Houston is the #1 gas-producing state,

accounting for roughly 24% of total US output.

With a GDP of $503 Billion,

the Houston economy is

31% of the total

Texas GDP.

%

4


Methodology & Topics Covered

First Data Information & Analytics Solutions Team reviewed sales activity

from 78,461 merchants across the 18 industries tracked by the US

Department of Commerce. This population represents merchants who

were open for business in both the date range of this analysis, and the

corresponding comparison periods. (same-store-sales)

Date range of this analysis of consumer purchasing activity is Aug 13,

2017 – September 4, 2017

Where appropriate, changes in consumption during the time of the storm’s

impact on Houston are indexed against Monday Aug 14 (“typical” Monday,

normal conditions)

Selected zipcodes are highlighted (based on the reported degree/duration

of flooding, and based on concentration of commerce) to understand the

economic impact [PRE – DURING – POST]

High level review (Total Spending, Total Retail, Total Non-Retail,

Total Food, Gasoline Stations, etc.), flowing into smaller industries

and categories

Analysis measures growth within specific industries within surrounding

cities in Texas which absorbed evacuees

Analysis explores how consumers navigated through the storm, and

the overall impact to consumption year over year

5


Key Takeaways

In Houston, Hurricane Harvey created a -30% decline in

overall spending Year over Year for the days it wrecked

havoc. Sales eroded by -42.5% during the week of the

storm when compared to the week prior.

As residents sought shelter away from the gulf coast and the storm, there

is evidence they went to several different areas, not just Dallas/Ft Worth,

San Antonio, or Austin.

In most cases, there has been a sustained average ticket size increase

– not necessarily due to price gouging, but simply because overall needs

have increased, and there’s more to buy to get back to normalcy.

Looking across a full 2-week cycle (with Harvey’s Houston landfall days at

the halfway mark), we saw more spending before the storm (54%) than after

the storm (42%) through Sept 4. Interestingly, consumers hit their fastest

pace of spending overall at 1pm on the Friday Sept 1 after the storm.

Zipcode performance was a function of how bad conditions were on the

ground. Flooding was random and widespread.

Accelerated “Prep” Spending Recovery Spending Very lackluster Recovery

Gas, Groceries

General Merchandise

Building Materials/DIY

Sporting Goods

Hotel

Groceries, Building Materials/DIY

Furniture

General Merchandise

Electronics

Clothing & Accessories

Travel

Depending on the category,

Houston consumers took

measures to prep for

Hurricane Harvey, or spent

heavily post-storm.

Year

over Year

Week

over Week

Beaumont -30% -40%

Victoria -36% -62%

Corpus Christi -23% -42%

Other Hard Hit Areas

Houston

6


The BIG Picture – Houston Metropolitan Area

The week that Hurricane Harvey

hit the Houston Metro area,

overall spending was -30%

behind 2016 results.

Compared to the previous week,

spending dropped -42.5%

Results based on First Data’s SpendTrend® reporting environment. Same store sales for both comparison periods.

Houston-The

Woodlands-Sugar

Land MSA

Year Over Year Consumer Spending Change Week Over Week Consumer Spending Change

Aug 11–Aug 17 Aug 18–Aug 24 Aug 25–Aug 31 Aug 18–Aug 24 Aug 25–Aug 31

All Spending 0.4% 2.8% -29.9% -4.4% -42.5%

Total Retail 3.4% -3.7% -43.7% -6.8% -58.7%

Food & Beverage

Stores (Grocery 3.0% 14.6% -9.1% 6.4% -25.1%

Food Services

(Restaurants) 1.4% 0.5% -43.7% -3.4% -54.2%

Gasoline Stations 8.1% 13.4% -15.4% 2.0% -24.9%

Hotels -12.2% 2.4% -36.6% -7.1% -35.9%

Leisure -1.0% -7.9% -42.0% -24.2% -51.8%

Motor Vehicles &

Parts Dealers -3.2% 5.9% -49.4% 4.7% -54.1%

Other Services -6.3% -1.6% -29.0% -13.2% -38.9%

Travel –

Air/Rail/Car/Ship -13.9% -16.7% -41.5% -1.4% -42.0%

7


The BIG Picture – Other Impacted Gulf Coast Cities


Obviously, Metro Houston

wasn’t the only area impacted

by Hurricane Harvey. Significant

losses were experienced in port

cities, particularly the Victoria

Metro area. Beaumont and

Port Arthur were of particular

importance because of the oil

refineries located near these cities.

All Spending Year Over Year Consumer Spending Change Week Over Week Consumer Spending Change


Beaumont-Port Arthur 5.2% 1.0% -29.3% -4.01% -39.40%

Corpus Christi 1.1% 8.9% -23.3% -1.45% -42.30%

Victoria -2.9% 10.7% -35.8% 6.31% -62.11%

Total Retail Year Over Year Consumer Spending Change Week Over Week Consumer Spending Change


Beaumont-Port Arthur 0.1% -11.8% -44.5% -7.62% -54.39%

Corpus Christi -1.4% -0.7% -32.9% -0.02% -51.83%

Victoria 3.0% 4.1% -55.2% -3.97% -83.58%

8


Houstonians Devoted More Spending to Services and Hotel/Travel/Leisure

Distribution of Spend

A bigger percentage of the total

dollars spent were allocated here.

A smaller percentage of the total


32.8% 36.6%

28.2%

27.6%

24.9% 22.8%

3.5% 5.3%

7.3% 4.6%

3.3% 3.0%

8/20–8/26 8/27–9/2

Overall, spending dropped

-42.5% during the storm, and

how spending was allocated

shifted too.

Services (Professional,

Business)

Food (Grocery +

Restaurants)

Retail

Hotel/Travel/Leisure

Gasoline Stations

Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers

- 42.5% SPENDING

9




32.8% 36.6%

28.2%

27.6%

24.9% 22.8%

3.5% 5.3%

7.3% 4.6%

3.3% 3.0%

8/20–8/26 8/27–9/2




shifted too.


Business)

Food (Grocery +

Restaurants)

Retail


Gasoline Stations


-42.5% SPENDING





10




32.8% 36.6%

28.2%

27.6%

24.9% 22.8%

3.5% 5.3%

7.3% 4.6%

3.3% 3.0%

8/20–8/26 8/27–9/2




shifted too.


Business)

Food (Grocery +

Restaurants)

Retail


Gasoline Stations


-42.5% SPENDING





11


Some Evacuees Were able to Shelter in Nearby Cities


Texas is a big place,

affording those escaping

the storm plenty of

options – if they had

the means to get there.

Aug 25 – Aug 31

Clothing &

Acc. Stores

Grocery

Stores Restaurants

Gasoline

Stations

General

Merchandise Hotels Leisure

Collective

Growth of these

Categories

Miles from

Houston

(Direction)

Houston Metro Area -65.5% -9.1% -43.7% -15.4% -37.9% -36.6% -42.0% -23.9%

Austin-Round Rock -24.0% 9.3% -10.2% -2.4% -11.0% -6.7% -25.0% -0.9% 165 (W)

Brownsville-Harlingen -1.3% 10.7% -6.2% 19.7% 12.8% -39.0% -12.7% 8.1% 350 (SW)

College Station-Bryan -12.0% 12.4% -4.8% 3.3% -9.1% -13.9% -17.1% 4.6% 100 (NW)

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington -1.8% 6.1% 0.2% 13.8% 3.2% 2.9% -8.1% 4.2% 240 (N)

Killeen-Temple 23.7% 1.8% -1.3% 5.5% 5.6% 2.8% 5.8% 3.1% 200 (NW)

Laredo -1.9% 10.6% 1.9% 14.6% -2.7% 18.4% -15.1% 8.1% 310 (NW)

Longview 28.5% 5.7% 2.9% 8.7% 14.8% 3.3% -2.3% 7.5% 210 (N)

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 2.5% 15.2% 5.9% 29.1% 6.3% 14.8% -12.8% 15.4% 350 (SW)

San Antonio-New Braunfels -12.3% 8.9% -12.2% -1.0% -1.9% -31.2% -30.2% -0.1% 200 (W)

Sherman-Denison -6.8% 3.7% 4.5% 13.4% 5.9% -2.9% -16.8% 7.8% 300 (N)

Texarkana -8.8% 1.2% 0.9% 3.0% -8.4% 9.1% -18.5% 0.6% 290 (NE)

Tyler 11.7% 6.9% 1.8% 1.5% 9.8% -11.3% -8.8% 3.2% 200 (N)

Waco 12.7% 6.8% -1.4% 2.8% -2.2% 39.4% -25.6% 4.7% 185 (NW)

Evacuees would have been

fleeing from several areas along

the Texas Gulf Coast.

While there are no absolute

figures available yet to determine

how many people evacuated to

each city, it’s clear that during

these critical days, smaller cities

like McAllen, Killeen, Waco, and

Laredo saw spend increases,

while San Antonio, Dallas, and

Austin each had comparatively

less lift.

12


Austin, Dallas/Ft Worth, and San Antonio Experienced Similar Dips in

Spending Across Key Categories During Hurricane Harvey

Gasoline Stations Building Materials Grocery Stores

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/1

9/2

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/1

9/2

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/1

9/2

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington

Austin-Round Rock

San Antonio-New Braunfels

13


Industry Level Insights

14


Spending Index in Houston – All Categories Combined

100 95

39

67

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

Total Transactions

$73.21 $68.25

$94.10 $55.36

The overall actual average ticket spiked immediately after the storm, but drifted lower by Labor Day

Aug 14–Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14

All Industries

Average Ticket Size, by Day

Total Spend

Overall, on the worst day of

the storm Houston saw total

spending depressed almost

90% versus a typical

Monday’s activity.

Typical Monday, normal

conditions

Index = 100

Monday before the storm,

activity was still normal

Index = 95

Monday immediately after the

storm. Severe flooding and rain

paralyzes city for 2-3 days

A week later, overall Monday

spending is still underperforming

15


Time Series Spending Patterns in Houston: Pre – During – Post Storm

5.71%

9.61% 8.47%

9.88% 11.44%

9.11%

2.54% 1.04%

3.80% 3.54%

6.49%

8.97%

11.32%

8.07%

Hour of Day 2017-08-20 2017-08-21 2017-08-22 2017-08-23 2017-08-24 2017-08-25 2017-08-26 2017-08-27 2017-08-28 2017-08-29 2017-08-30 2017-08-31 2017-09-01 2017-09-02

Hourly Contribution

to Total

05:00:00 AM 1.99%

06:00:00 AM 1.99%

07:00:00 AM 2.75%

08:00:00 AM 4.23%

09:00:00 AM 6.01%

10:00:00 AM 7.54%

11:00:00 AM 8.37%

12:00:00 PM 8.81%

13:00:00 PM 9.01%

14:00:00 PM 8.53%

15:00:00 PM 8.41%

16:00:00 PM 7.76%

17:00:00 PM 6.40%

18:00:00 PM 5.33%

19:00:00 PM 4.33%

20:00:00 PM 3.56%

21:00:00 PM 2.39%

22:00:00 PM 1.52%

23:00:00 PM 1.09%

Daily Contribution

to Total 5.71% 9.61% 8.47% 9.88% 11.44% 9.11% 2.54% 1.04% 3.80% 3.54% 6.49% 8.97% 11.32% 8.07% 100.00%

Post Storm spending

reached maximum at

1pm Friday 9/1

Pre: 54.2% During: 3.6% Post: 42.2% % of Total Spend

16


Spending Index in Houston – Retail vs Non Retail

100

105

15

101

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

$111.18 $111.08

$144.71

$91.37


Total Retail Total Non-Retail


Total Transactions

Total Spend

100

88

48

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

$208.48 $188.15 $206.58 $146.58

17


Spending Index in Houston – Gasoline Stations/Convenience Stores


Gasoline Stations

100 103

224

130

39

62

0

50

100

150

200

250

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

$21.46 $21.48 $18.26 $18.51

Gasoline Stations includes

traditional convenience stores

with gas, as well as automated

fuel pumps (pay with a card at

the pump).

Dozens of service stations were

off-line, or simply unable to

replenish gas after the storm.

Average ticket size took a hit,

even though the price per gallon

of gas shot up $0.25–$0.50

during the week the storm

engulfed Houston.


Total Transactions

Total Spend

Typical Mondays, normal conditions Consumer rush to top of their tanks on

Thursday & Friday

Due to infrastructure damage and road

conditions, gas station activity stays

depressed.

18


100 103

177

138

39

126

0

50

100

150

200

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

Spending Index in Houston – Food (Grocery + Restaurants)

$27.97 $27.91

$47.04

$35.25

Houstonians almost doubled their

rate of spend from Monday to

Thursday before Harvey hit. After

the storm moved through the

metro area, consumers steadily

resumed purchasing. Average

ticket size also sustained an

increase of $7–$19.


Total Transactions

Total Spend


Food (Grocery + Restaurant)

19


Spending Index in Houston – Grocery vs. Restaurants Aug 14–Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14

Total Grocery Total Restaurants

100 107

207

160

53

122

142

0

50

100

150

200

250

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

100 95

122

95

14

98 97

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

Quite naturally, people stocked up on grocery items before the storm.

Thursday and Friday saw indexes of 160-207, as consumers almost

doubled their spend.

Consumers came out after the storm, but groceries were scarce because

stores could not adequately replenish, until Wed 8/30. An average ticket

increase of $5–$12 has also been sustained post storm.

Restaurant patronage was much more reserved ahead of the storm, with

a slight uptick on Thursday 8/24. Recovery of spend after the storm has

been very lethargic. There were far less restaurants open for business

even 5 days after the event.

Restaurant average ticket has shown a small, sustained increase post

storm, but the overall spending is down.

$17.86 $17.57 $27.44

$21.88

$40.18 $38.88 $52.20 $45.47

Total Transactions

Total Spend

Total Transactions

Total Spend

Average Ticket Size, by Day Average Ticket Size, by Day

20


Spending Index in Houston – Hotels, Leisure

Hotels Leisure

100

107

72

58 51

169

116

0

60

120

180

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

100

143 123

53

24

189

43 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

Hotels didn’t see any increase in spending in the days ahead of the storm,

a strong indication that residents under-estimated the impact Harvey would

have. But starting on Thursday 8/31, consumers rushed to book hotel rooms

across Houston, and the spending in the category has remained high,

achieving average tickets as high as $367, but settling somewhere near

$50 higher than pre-storm average spending.

The Leisure industry saw Houston area consumers spend aggressively both

pre- and post- storm in categories like Recreational/Utility Trailers, Motor

Homes, Timeshares, and Health/Beauty Spas.

Average tickets steadily rose from 8/28 through 9/1, but now have sharply

fallen off as supply cannot meet the demand.

$138.10

$248.32 $281.55

$62.51

$247.71 $249.60 $185.07

$298.38

Total Transactions

Total Spend

Total Transactions

Total Spend



21


Spending Index in Houston – Building Materials

100

120 132

93

13

125

140

0

50

100

150

200

250

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

$129.85 $160.70

$230.29

$89.14

Building Materials (ie: DIY stores)

started seeing an increase in

activity on the Monday before the

storm hit, but not as aggressively

might have been expected.

After Harvey moved through

the metro area, spending activity

seemed to recover quickly.

However, clearly the consumer

needs changed.

Transactions quickly outpaced

the actual spending pace, a

clear indication that consumers

were spending less per ticket,

likely buying smaller, less

expensive items.

Building Material & Garden Equip & Supply



Total Transactions

Total Spend

22


Spending Index in Houston – Clothing Stores, Electronics Stores

Clothing & Acc. Stores Electronic & Appliances

$175.12 $144.02 $158.48 $149.91 $78.64 $86.67

$136.99

$77.46


Back

To

School

100

98

99

57

2

62

114

0

50

100

150

200

250

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

100

83

103

80

25

135

104

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

Total Transactions

Total Spend

Total Transactions

Total Spend


23


Storm Prep

100

137

221

131

26

146

100

0

50

100

150

200

250

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

Back

To

School

Total Transactions

Total Spend

Spending Index in Houston – Furniture, General Merchandise

Furniture & Home Furnishings Gen’l Merchandise Stores- Inc. Value Retail

100

88

89

60 16

99

203

0

50

100

150

200

250

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

Probably the most apparent behavioral spending evidence, consumers

showed very little interest in spending money on Furniture and Home

Furnishings….until after the storm passed.

But as soon as they were able, consumers aggressively spent, and

spared no expense based on the increase in average ticket size.

Given the timing of the spike in spending, it is clear that consumers were

preparing for the storm after Back-to-School spending was completed.

After the storm passed, consumers quickly hit General Merchandise

stores to get necessities, cleaning supplies, etc. Average tickets saw a

short lived increase, but have since settled lower than pre-storm levels.

$50.43 $57.31

$76.34 $47.87

$309.66 $301.32

$508.49 $456.05

Total Transactions

Total Spend



24


Spending Index in Houston – Specialty Retailers, Car Parts

Misc. Store Retailers Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers

This is an unfortunate reality of the aftermath of a storm like Harvey.

Miscellaneous Store Retailers is primarily composed of independent

SMB-type businesses. They are not destinations for storm prep, and

will take longer to recover.

Average ticket has seen decline through the storm, and even into the

post storm period.

Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers (ie: Retail auto parts, tires, etc not actual car

sales/dealerships) seemed to be the least affected by Hurricane Harvey.

Consumer spending follows a distinct pattern relative to weekend purchasing

activity. The storm’s timing played into that pattern.

Average ticket size declined during the storm, but is rebounding.

$205.96 $200.22

$128.99

$186.31

$168.02 $158.41 $205.91

$82.44


100

88

98

65

14

91

42

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

100 97

104

89

3

100

84

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/0

1

9/0

2

9/0

3

9/0

4

9/0

5

Total Transactions

Total Spend

Total Transactions

Total Spend


25


Spending Index in Houston – Services, Travel, Sporting Goods

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores Other Services

100 85

71

64

53

72

26 0

40

80

120

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/1

9/2

9/3

9/4

9/5

$211.55 $183.45 $206.83 $137.64


Travel – Air/Rail/Car/Ship

100 77

75

54

24

66

51 0

40

80

120

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/1

9/2

9/3

9/4

9/5

$162.91 $150.13 $289.99

$171.31

100 102

153

157

1

90

123

0

50

100

150

200

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/1

9/2

9/3

9/4

9/5

$71.88 $73.98 $32.52

$70.86


BTS

Services (including professional, medical, and business services) have steadily declined in

spend, even though we know it have become a bigger percentage of total spend post-storm.

Sporting Goods realized a spending spike due to back-to-school, as well as storm prep.

Travel-related spend has steadily withered during and after the storm.


Total Transactions

Total Spend Total Transactions

Total Spend

Total Transactions

Total Spend


26


Zip Code Level Insights

27


Best and Worst Performing Zip Codes in the Houston Metro Area During Hurricane Harvey (based on total spending change week leading up to storm vs week of storm)

77024

77002

BEST Performing: +1.8% week over week

Location: Central Downtown

Features: Sports Arenas, Convention Center (which served as

primary evacuation shelter Minimal flooding

WORST Performing: -44.8% week over week

Location: West Central Houston, along Buffalo Bayou

Features: Upscale, wealthy, established neighborhoods, significant retail (malls,

restaurants, etc.) Historic, prolonged flooding in connection with reservoir controlled releases

28


How Did Spending Change Within Top Houston Zip Codes?

Zipcodes are ranked based on their total spend in the industry

If we consider the week of August

13–19 as a “typical” benchmark

week, how did spending change

as consumers in the Houston

Metro area braced for the storm?

Lead Up To Storm:

Aug 20–Aug 26

Week Of Storm: Aug 27–Sep 02

Gasoline Stations

Top 10 Zipcodes Lead Up To Storm Week of Storm

77084 121% 37%

77055 106% 44%

77070 126% 68%

77090 116% 79%

77065 118% 47%

77015 117% 47%

77064 118% 60%

77095 115% 65%

77079 122% 41%

77057 132% 58%

Total Houston 120% 58%

= Zip code is among the top 10 zipcodes for overall spend

Compared to the week of Aug 13, the Top 10 Zipcodes for

Gas purchases in the Houston Metro area aggressively

ramped up gas spending. Overall, Houston bought 20%

more gas in preparation for Harvey’s arrival.

During the week of the

storm, gas purchases fell

by roughly half of the

“typical” week’s activity.

29


How Did Spending Change Within Top Houston Zip Codes?

Top 10 Zipcodes Food Spend

(Groceries + Restaurants)

Food (Grocery + Restaurants)

Top 10

Zipcodes

Lead Up To

Storm

Week of

Storm

77055 127% 101%

77098 103% 72%

77070 111% 93%

77065 135% 111%

77077 121% 89%

77057 110% 80%

77084 119% 68%

77015 142% 81%

77099 109% 106%

77007 126% 77%

Total

Houston 110% 83%

Total Grocery Stores

Top 10

Zipcodes

Lead Up To

Storm

Week of

Storm

77055 133% 106%

77065 146% 119%

77077 137% 106%

77084 130% 74%

77070 129% 110%

77099 114% 117%

77015 161% 88%

77057 130% 95%

77098 122% 78%

77075 152% 90%

Total

Houston 129% 101%

Total Restaurants

Top 10

Zipcodes

Lead Up To

Storm

Week of

Storm

77024 75% 39%

77056 76% 34%

77098 81% 66%

77002 73% 27%

77070 83% 68%

77007 85% 52%

77057 79% 55%

77027 76% 40%

77036 84% 64%

77077 81% 50%

Total

Houston 82% 55%

Top 10 Zipcodes Grocery Spend Top 10 Zipcodes Restaurant Spend

Clearly, any solid performance in this area

was driven by Groceries spending activity.

The top zipcodes for Grocery spend really

tried to pantry load ahead of the storm – as

did Houston as a whole.

Restaurant spend suffered for two

reasons – significant destruction and

displacement of workers, and consumers

focused on pantry loading

If we consider the week of

August 13–19 as a “typical”

benchmark week, how did

spending change as consumers

in the Houston Metro area

braced for the storm?

Zipcodes are ranked based on their total spend in the industry

30


eCommerce Spending in Houston

31


eCommerce Activity in Houston Suffered Through Harvey as Well

US eCOMM Sales ($) Houston eCOMM Sales ($) eCommerce dropped -41.4%

during the week when Harvey hit

Houston. By comparison, Total US

eCommerce Business was down

only -4.3% for the same week.

Post-Storm , Houston continued

to drag, while nationally eCom

spending was up 6.8%

Sales

% Chg

YoY

100.0 97.5

102.2 103.7

25.4

8/11-8/17 8/18-8/24 8/25-8/31 9/1-9/7 9/8-9/9

1.6% -1.4% -4.3% 6.8% -1.3%

“Normal” Pre-storm Harvey Post-storm

100.0

88.7

58.7

86.5

22.3

8/11-8/17 8/18-8/24 8/25-8/31 9/1-9/7 9/8-9/9

-2.0% -4.9% -41.4% -6.1% -7.9%

“Normal” Pre-storm Harvey Post-storm

Weeks Indexed to Week 8/11–8/17 (“Normal Week”)

Sales

% Chg

YoY

32


Daily eCommerce Sales %Chg Year Over Year Show

the Staggering Effect of Hurricane Harvey

eCommerce activity in Houston

started to plummet on Aug 24,

and was at maximum freefall

by Monday Aug 28th. Activity

gradually recovered, and posted

positive year-over-year growth

on Sunday Sep 3. But since

then, sales have continued to

struggle to achieve parity with

2016 results.

4.2

%

-4.5

%

-5.3

%

7.6

%

-14

.3%

5.4

%

0.3

%

2.4

%

-2.7

%

-3.5

%

3.7

%

-6.3

%

-3.3

%

-1.6

%

-15

.5%

-22

.8%

-25

.3%

-43

.7%

-55

.2%

-47

.3%

-48

.9%

-40

.2%

-11

.9%

-2.8

%

7.3

%

-9.5

%

-6.3

%

-3.7

%

-7.2

%

-6.4

%

-10

.7%

-12

.9%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

8/1

0

8/1

1

8/1

2

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/1

9/2

9/3

9/4

9/5

9/6

9/7

9/8

9/9

31 D

ay T

ota

l

Houston Total US

Daily Sales Volume % Chg Year Over eCommerce Activity Only – Houston vs. Total

33


Though Sales Were Down Significantly, Transactions Were Not Down as

Much, Indicating Houstonians’ Mix of Products Likely Changed

Post-Storm, consumers’

immediate needs likely changed,

producing an increase in

transactions, albeit for lower-

priced goods.

Daily Transaction Volume % Chg Year Over eCommerce Activity Only – Houston vs. Total

22

.3%

11

.4%

14

.8%

22

.0%

-0.9

%

9.1

% 1

3.1

%

15

.5%

7.7

%

12

.7%

19

.2%

3.8

% 7.1

%

7.2

%

0.9

%

-8.4

%

-17

.7%

-34

.2%

-38

.6%

-38

.7%

-35

.2%

-26

.8%

-6.6

% -2

.3%

3.9

%

-1.9

%

-0.6

%

4.3

%

4.1

%

10

.1%

6.3

%

-1.0

%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

8/1

0

8/1

1

8/1

2

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/1

9/2

9/3

9/4

9/5

9/6

9/7

9/8

9/9

31 D

ay T

ota

l

Houston Total US

34


The Cyclical eCommerce Spending Pattern in Houston Was Disrupted by Harvey

Against a 31-day spending

average, we see daily spending

indexes in a somewhat predictable

pattern. Mondays typically see a

spike in activity after low-indexing

weekends. However, during the

week that Harvey paralyzed

Houston, spending activity was

significantly below average.

As reference, the 2016 line shows

trends that mirror to the total US

eCom spending behavior during

these days in Aug/Sep.

136

127

72

59

142

179

130

124 129

71

58

125

132

118

106

103

51

29

56

77 72

101

132

76

58 61

132

137

124

122

64

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

8/1

0

8/1

1

8/1

2

8/1

3

8/1

4

8/1

5

8/1

6

8/1

7

8/1

8

8/1

9

8/2

0

8/2

1

8/2

2

8/2

3

8/2

4

8/2

5

8/2

6

8/2

7

8/2

8

8/2

9

8/3

0

8/3

1

9/1

9/2

9/3

9/4

9/5

9/6

9/7

9/8

9/9

Total US

Houston

Houston 2016 Index

Index

Daily Sales Index (Against 31 Day Average) eCommerce Activity Only – Houston vs. Total

Documents

HURRICANE HARVEY - First Data › newsroom › assets › ... · In College Station (home of Texas A&M University) 19.64 Near Victoria, TX 15.60 Near Lake Charles, Louisiana 15.41