HURRICANE FORECASTING: Another Perspective Jill F. Hasling, President

HURRICANE FORECASTING: Another HURRICANE FORECASTING: Another PerspectivePerspective

Jill F. Hasling, PresidentJill F. Hasling, President

Certified Consulting MeteorologistCertified Consulting Meteorologist

Weather Research CenterWeather Research Center

5104 Caroline St.5104 Caroline St.

Houston, Texas 77004Houston, Texas 77004

www.wxresearch.comwww.wxresearch.com

Using GIS to determine if there are more hurricanes.

Conclusion: Since satellite use started after 1960, more hurricanes must be the result of satellites and not global warming.

1900-1959 Hurricanes

East of 45W

1960-2006 Hurricanes

East of 45W

Category 5 Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin

Atlantic Basin Category 5 Hurricanes28 Category Hurricanes have occurred since 1900

Lowest Pressure –

Hurricane Wilma 2005 882 mbs

Highest maximum sustained winds -

Hurricane Allen 1980 - 165 Knots

Most Category Hurricanes per season

2005 - Four- Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma

1961 - Two – Carla and Hattie

1960 – Two – Donna and Ethel

www.wxresearch.com/outlook

SOLAR CYCLES11.1 Year Cycle: Sun spot number at a

minimum to a sun spot number at a

maximum and back to a minimum

22.2 Year Cycle: Sun spots start at the minimum at opposite

pole. 88.7 Year Gleissberg Cycle178.7 Year Jose Cycle - Includes 16

of the Sun’s orbits around the center of gravity of the solar systems or solar cycles.


SOLAR CYCLE• Starts with the Sunspot Minimum – when

few sunspots are observed on the sun.

• The number of observed sunspots increases until it reaches the sunspot maximum.

• Then the number of sunspots decrease until the sunspot minimum starts the next cycle.

• There are on average 11.1 years in each cycle.


In 1996, near the last solar minimum, the Sun is nearly featureless. By 1999, approaching maximum, it is dotted by sunspots and fiery hot gas trapped in magnetic loops.

Solar max has also been tied to a 2 percent increase in clouds over much of the United States.


Sunspot Numbers from 1745


ORBITAL CYCLONE STRIKE INDEX

The OCSI was developed in the mid 80’s to predict which section of the United States Coast had the highest probability of experiencing landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane in a particular year.

The index was developed using the sun spot cycle as an indication of the orbit of the sun around the center of the solar system and corresponds to the phase’s in the sun’s orbit. This leads to the premise is that the sunspot cycle is caused by orbital influences.

Large scale circulation patterns of the earth are also subjected to these orbital influences which would then influence the tracks of cyclones. The OCSI index was developed using the year of the sunspot minimum as Phase 1 of the index.

ORBITAL CYCLONE STRIKE INDEX

The index was created by sorting the Years from 1878 to 1985 by the phase of the solar cycle with the year of the sunspot minimum being Phase 1, the year after the sunspot minimum being Phase 2, etc.

Those years are: 1878, 1889, 1901, 1913, 1923, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1976, 1986, 1996, 2008?

The tracks of the tropical storms and hurricanes in these years were compared and the number of years a particular section of the coast experienced a landfall was tallied to give the percent chance of landfall.


Cycles

Phase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

1 1878S 1889 1901 1913 1923M 1933 1944 1954 1964 1976M 1986M

2 1879 1890 1902M 1914M 1924 1934 1945 1955 1965M 1977M 1987M

3 1880M 1891S 1903 1915 1925S 1935 1946 1956 1966M 1978 1988

4 1881 1892 1904 1916 1926S 1936 1947* 1957 1967 1979* 1989*

5 1882 1893 1905 1917*S 1927 1937* 1948 1958S 1968 1980 1990

6 1883* 1894* 1906 1918 1928* 1938 1949 1959 1969* 1981 1991M

7 1884S 1895 1907*M 1919 1929 1939M 1950 1960 1970 1982S 1992M

8 1885 1896M 1908 1920 1930 1940S 1951 1961 1971 1983S 1993

9 1886 1897M 1909 1921 1931 1941S 1952 1962 1972S 1984 1994

10 1887 1898 1910 1922 1932S 1942 1953M 1963 1973S 1985 1995

11 1888 1899S 1911S 1943M 1974

12 1900S 1912S 1975

Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [ OCSI]


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



WRC GRAY Updated Gray

FcstNumber of Named Storms: 11 13 15Number of Storm Days: 83 60 80Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 5 7 8Number of Hurricane Days: 24 30 40US Landfalls: 4 Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50% 3 4

2008 Atlantic Hurricane OutlookCoast with the highest risk of landfall is

Georgia to North Carolina with 90%

Louisiana to Alabama has 60% chance of a landfall


PHASE Year Highest 10 1985 TX 70% W FL 70%

Kate 1 1986 GA/NC 90%

Charley 2 1987 LA/AL – 70% 3 1988 W. FL 90%

Keith 4 1989 LA-AL 90% WFL 90%

Allison 5 1990 W FL 60% GA-NC 60% LA-AL 60%

Marco 6 1991 W FL 70% LA-AL 70%

Fabian 7 1992 W FL 80%


PHASE YEAR HIGHEST 8 1993 NE US 70% GA-NC 70%

Emily 9 1994 W FL 70%

Alberto Beryl Gordon 10 1995 TX 70% W FL 70% Dean Allison Erin Opal 1 1996 GA-NC 90%

Arthur Bertha Fran 2 1997 LA-AL 70%

Danny 3 1998 W FL (90%)

Earl Mitch 4 1999 LA-AL 90% WFL 70% Harvey Irene Floyd 5 2000 W FL 70% LA-AL 70%

Gordon Gordon Helene

PHASE YEAR HIGHEST 6 2001 W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Gabrielle Allison 7 2002 W FL 80%

Hanna 8 2003 NE US 70% GA-NC 70%*

Isabel Isabel 9 2004 W FL 70%

Bonnie Charley Frances Ivan 10 2005 TX 70% W FL 70% Rita Dennis Wilma 11 2006 LA/AL 80% 12 2007 TX 66% LA-AL 66% WFL 66%

Humberto Barry


23 Forecast Years - 1985 - 2007

20 out of the 23 years verified giving an accuracy rate of is

86.96%3 out of the 23 years cyclones did not make landfall along the coast with the highest risk. [1987, 1992 and 2006]

During these three years cyclones did make landfall in one of the coast with the second highest probability.

1987 WFL 60% - Floyd

1992 LA-AL 60% - Andrew

2006 GA/NC 66% - Alberto/Ernesto


Other Cycles Used for VerificationPHASE YEAR HIGHEST RISK 1 1856 GA/NC 90% - Strm#3 2 1857 LA/AL - 70% 3 1858 W. FL 90% -Strm#3 4 1859 LA-AL 90% WFL 90%

Strm#5 Strm#5 5 1860 W FL 60% GA-NC 60% LA-AL 60%

Strm#1 Strm#1/4/6 6 1861 W FL 70% LA-AL 70%

Strm#6 Strm#2 7 1862 W FL 80% 8 1863 NE US 70% GA-NC 70%

Strm#6 Strm#6 9 1864 W FL 70% 10 1865 TX 70% W FL 70%

Strm#2/4 Strm#7 11 1866 LA-AL 75%

PHASE YEAR HIGHEST 1 1867 GA/NC 90% - Strm#1 2 1868 LA/AL - 70% - Strm#1 3 1869 W. FL 90% 4 1870 LA-AL 90% WFL 90%

Strm#1 Strm#6/9 5 1871 W FL 60% GA-NC 60% LA-AL 60%

Strm#6/7 Strm#3 Strm#7 6 1872 W FL 70% LA-AL 70%

Strm#5 Strm#1 7 1873 W FL 80% - Strm#3/4/5 8 1874 NE US 70% GA-NC 70%

Strm#6 Strm#6 9 1875 W FL 70% - Strm#310 1876 TX 70% W FL 70%

Strm#511 1877 LA-AL 75% - Strm#14


Forecast Verification Summary:

1856-1866 Missed 4 out of the 11 years 63.64%


1986-1995 Missed 2 out of the 10 years 80%



WRC then used the OCSI to make a secondary predications:

Number of tropical cyclones Number of hurricanes Number of hurricane days Number of storm days

To compare the OCSI forecast with Colorado State Professor Gray and Climatology.

The following graph indicates the over or under forecast of number of cyclones [tropical storms and hurricanes] each year. If the value is 0 then the forecast was correct.

The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or - 1 cyclone.


The following graph indicates the error + or – 1 of the forecast for the number of hurricanes each year.

The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or - 1 hurricane.



The following graph indicates the forecast of the number of storm days +_ or – 10 days each year.

The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or – 10 storm days.



The following graph indicates the forecast of the number of hurricane days + or – 5 days each year.

The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or – 5 hurricane days.



Summary of the number of years since 1984 that the forecast verified within +- range indicated.

WRC OCSI Climate Co. State Gray

# of Years the forecasts of the number of cyclones was w/in +- 1 10 3 7

# of Yearsthe forecasts of the number of hurricaneswas w/in +-1 11 7 9


Summary of the number of years since 1984 the forecast of storm days and hurricane days verified within the +- range

indicated.

WRC OCSI Climate Co. State Gray

# of Years the forecasts of the number of hurricane days was w/in +- 5 9 5 6

# of Yearsthe forecasts of the number of stormdays was w/in +-10 11 6 7


Katrina as a Cat 5 on Hurricane Alicia’s track

Highest Winds Highest Winds on the right of on the right of the trackthe track



As a hurricane makes landfall and moves inland, the sustained winds start to weaken as the winds at the surface interact with the rough surface. So the winds in the hurricane that you would see in a hurricane over water would be lower as the storm moves inland. The hurricane also is weakening because it is moving away from the warm water that allows it to maintain its intensity.

Maximum Sustained 1 minute sustained wind. Galveston Coast Hobby Airport Downtown Houston Bush Airport 38 mph 28 mph 25 mph 19 mph 50 mph 38 mph 33 mph 25 mph58 mph 43 mph 38 mph 29 mph76 mph 57 mph 49 mph 38 mph 99 mph 74 mph 64 mph 50 mph114 mph 86 mph 74 mph 58 mph148 mph 111 mph 96 mph 74 mph


Weather Research Center

Houston, Texas

www.wxresearch.com

[email protected]

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HURRICANE FORECASTING: Another Perspective Jill F. Hasling, President