Humint Advantage - Sdi 2015

7/25/2019 Humint Advantage - Sdi 2015

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HUMINT Data overload


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Take notes here

Changes that were made to this draft:

What we are using for tomorrow:

The interactions with the Terror Disad:

Where the Neg is allowed to e reak the scri!t:


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""#$ %ection starts here


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C version


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HUMINT #dvantage

Contention Three ' is Human Intelligence

The s(uo relies )ig Data surveillance* That means info

overload + less HUMINT*

,ol-. &/

(Dustin, The National Journal, Snowden: Overreliance on Mass Surveillance Abetted Boston MarathonBombin: The !ormer NSA contractor sa"s a !ocus on mass surveillance is im#edin traditionalintellience$atherin e%orts&and allowin terrorists to succeed', October ), )*+, a-.

/dward Snowdenon Monda" suested that i! theNational Securit" Aenc" !ocused more ontraditional intellience atherin&and less on its mass$surveillance #rorams&itcould have thwarted the )*0 Boston Marathon bombins- The !uitive leaer,

s#eain via video to a 1arvard class, said that a #reoccu#ation with collectin bulcommunications data has led to resource constraints at 2-S- intellienceaencies, o!ten leavin more traditional, tareted methods o! s#"in on the bacburner- 34e miss attacs , we miss leads, and investiations !ail becausewhen the

overnment isdoing its 0collect it all.0 where we0re watching

ever1od1. we0re not seeing an1thing with s#eci5cit" because it isim#ossible to ee# an e"e on all o! "our tarets,3 Snowden told 1arvard #ro!essor and 6nternet!reedom activist 7awrence 7essi- 3A ood e8am#le o! this is, actuall", the Boston Marathon bombins-3 Snowden

said that D9hohar and TamerlanTsarnaevwere #ointed out b" ussian intellience to 2-S-o;cials #rior to the bombins last "earthat illed three and le!t hundreds wounded, butthat suchactionable intellience was larel" inored- 1e arued that tareted surveillance on

nown e8tremists and dilient #ursuit o! intellience leads #rovides !or bettercounterterrorism e%orts than mass s#"in- 34e didn


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)ig Data kills human'intel which is ke1 to overall U%

o!erations*

Margolis 4&5

abriel Marolis C the author #resentl" holds a Master o! Arts (MA. in onEict Manaement Fesolution !rom 2N 4ilminton and in his 5nal semester o! the #roram when this article was#ublished in the #eer$reviewed ournal lobal Securit" Studies - lobal Securit" Studies (SS. is a#remier academic and #ro!essional ournal !or strateic issues involvin international securit" a%airs-All articles submitted to and #ublished in lobal Securit" Studies (SS. undero a riorous, #eer$reviewed #rocess- Grom the article: The 7ac o! 12M6NT: A ecurrin 6ntellience Hroblem' $ lobalSecurit" Studies $ S#rin )*0, Iolume +, 6ssue htt#:lobalsecurit"studies-comMarolisK)6ntellienceK)(aK)edits.-#d!

The 2 nited S tates has accumulated an une=uivocal abilit" to collect intellience as a result o! thetechnoloical advances o! the )th centur"- Numerous methods o! collectionhave been em#lo"ed inclandestine o#erations around the worldincludin those that !ocus on human, sinals,eos#atial, and measurements and sinals intellience- An in!atuation with technoloicalmethodso! intellience atherin has develo#edwithin man" intellience orani9ations, o!tenleavin the ae old #ractice o! es#ionae as an a!terthouht-As a result o! the !ocus on

technical methods, some of the worst intelligence failures o! the )th centur" canbe attributed to an absence o! human intellience- The *st centur" has ushered in advancesin technolo" have allowed 2AIs to become the ultimate technical intellience atherin #lat!ormLhowever human intellience is still bein nelected- The increasin reliance on 2AIs

will make the U nited % tates susce!tile to intelligence failures

unless human intelligence can e !ro!erl1 integrated -6n the near!uture 2AIs ma" be able to ather human level intellience, but it will be a lon time be!ore classical es#ionae is athin o! the #ast-

)W and nuclear use coming* HUMINT is ke1 to sta1'ahead of

these risks*

6ohnson 47

Dr- 7och - Johnson is eents Hro!essor o! Holitical Science at the 2niversit" o! eoria- 1e is editor o!the ournal 36ntellience and National Securit"3 and has written numerous boos on American !orein#olic"- Dr- Johnson served as sta% director o! the 1ouse Subcommittee on 6ntellience Oversiht !rom* to *- Dr- Johnson earned his Hh-D- in #olitical science !rom the 2niversit" o! ali!ornia ativerside- 3/valuatin 31umint3: The ole o! Gorein Aents in 2-S- Securit"3 Ha#er #resented at theannual meetin o! the 6SA


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intentions o! those overseas(or subversives at home. who can inEict harmu#on the nation-That is the core #ur#ose o! es#ionae: to ather in!ormation about threats, whether e8ternal orinternal, andto warn leaders about #erils !acin the homeland- Gurther, the secret services ho#e to #rovideleaders with data thatcanhel# advance the national interest&the o##ortunit" side o! the securit" e=uation-

Throuhthe #ractice o! es#ionae&s#"in or clandestine human intelligence : whichever is one


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#ersistence in the environment would be less than nuclear or bioloical aents or more locali9ed- 1ence, chemical wea#ons wouldhave a lesser e%ect on !uture enerations o! innocent #eo#le and the natural environment- 7ie the 1olocaust, once a locali9ed

chemical e8termination is over, it is over- 4ith nuclear and bioloical wea#ons, the illin will #robabl"never end-adioactive elements last tens o! thousands o! "ears and will ee#causin cancersvirtuall" !orever-Hotentiall" worse than that, bio$enineered aentsb" the hundreds withno nown cure could wrec even reater calamit"on the human race than could #ersistent radiation- A6DS and

ebola viruses are ust a small e8am#le o! recentl" emerin #laues with no nown cure or vaccine- an we imaine hundreds o!such #laues> 12MAN /QT6NT6ON 6S NO4 HOSS6B7/-

',htt#:www-!orein#olic"-comarticles)*+***)counterterrorisms#"innsaislamicstateterrorist

cve, November *), )*+, a-.

The head o! the British electronic s#" aenc" 1U, obert 1annian, created a minor Ea# last wee in an article he wrote !or theGinancial Times- 6n e%ect, 1annian arued that more robust encr"#tion #rocedures b" #rivate 6nternet com#anies were unwittinl"aidin terrorists such as the 6slamic State (6S. or al Uaeda, b" main it harder !or orani9ations lie the NSA and 1U to monitoronline tra;c- The im#lication was clear: The more that our #ersonal #rivac" is res#ected and #rotected, the reater the daner wewill !ace !rom evildoers- 6t Gor starters, the"


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More funding WN>T solve* Data overload overwhelms intel

and guarantees ongoing resource failures*

Tufekci 4&?

Xe"ne# Tu!eci is a !ellow at the enter !or 6n!ormation Technolo" Holic" at Hrinceton 2niversit", anassistant #ro!essor at the School o! 6n!ormation and De#artment o! Sociolo" at the 2niversit" o! Northarolina, and a !acult" associate at the 1arvard Berman enter !or 6nternet and Societ"- Terror andthe limits o! mass surveillance' C Ginancial TimesW The /8chane $ Geb 0rdhtt#:blos-!t-comthe$e8chane)*P))09e"ne#$tu!eci$terror$and$the$limits$o!$mass$surveillance

Themost commonusti5cation iven b" overnments !or mass surveillanceis that these

tools are indis#ensable!or 5htin terrorism-The NSAWs e8$director eith Ale8ander sa"s ig data is

@what it>s all aoutA - 6ntellience aencies routinel" claim that the" need massive amounts o! data on all o!us to catch the bad u"s, lie the Grench brothers who assassinated the cartoonists o! harlie 1ebdo, or the murderers o! 7ee ib",the British soldier illed b" two men who claimed the act was revene !or the 2Ws involvement in the wars in 6ra= and A!hanistan-

But the assertion that bi data is what itWs all about' when it comes to #redictin rare events isnot su##orted b" what we now about how these methods wor, and more im#ortantl",donWt wor-Anal"tics on massive datasetscan be #ower!ulin anal"sinand identi!"in broad #atterns, orevents that occurreularl" and !re=uentl", but are sinularl" unsuited to 5ndinun#redictable,erratic, and rare needles in hue ha"stacs- 6n !act, the bier the ha"stac & the more massive the

scale and the wider the sco#e o! the surveillance& the less suited these methods are to

3nding such e2ce!tional events , and the more the1 ma1 serve to

direct resources and attention awa1 from a!!ro!riate tools andmethods- A!ter ib" was illed, 1U, BritainWs intellience service, was criticised b" man" !or !ailin to sto# his illers, MichaelAdebolao and Michael Adebowale- A lenth" #arliamentar" in=uir" was conducted, resultin in a *$#ae re#ort that lists all thewa"s in which Adebolao and Adebowale had brushes with data surveillance, but were not Eaed as two men who were about to ill

a soldier on a 7ondon street- 1U de!ended itsel! b" sa"in that some o! the crucial online e8chanes had taen #lace on a#lat!orm, believed to be Gaceboo, which had not alerted the aenc" about these men, or the nature o! their #ostins- The mena##arentl" had numerous e8chanes that were e8tremist in nature, and their accounts were sus#ended re#eatedl" b" the #lat!orm!or violatin its terms o! service- 6! onl" Gaceboo had turned over more data,' the thinin oes- But that is misleadin, and maessense onl" with the bene5t o! hindsiht- Seein larer volumes o! data, such as asin Gaceboo to alert intellience aenciesever" time that it detects a #ost containin violence, would delue the aencies with multi#le !alse leads that would lead to a data

=uamire, rather than clues to im#endin crimes- Gor bi data anal"tics to wor, there needs to be areliable connection between the sinal (#ostin o! violent content. and the event(illin someone.-

therwise. the signal is worse than useless* Millions o! GacebooWs billion$#lus users#ost violent content ever" da", ranin !rom routinised movie violence to atrocious violent rhetoric-Turnin over the

data !rom allsuch occurrences would merel" Eood the aencies with false !ositivesA &

erroneous indications !or events that actuall" will not ha##en- Such data overload is not without cost, as it

taes time and e%ort to si!t throuh these millions o! strands o! ha" to con5rm that the" are, indeed, not needles & es#eciall"when we donWt even now what needles loo lie- All that the investiators would have would be a lot o! o#en leads with no

resolution, tain awa" resources !roman1 real investigation* Besides, account sus#ensionscarried out b" #lat!orms lie GacebooWs are ha#ha9ard, semi$automated and unreliable indicators- The Eain s"stem misses a lotmore violent content than it Eas, and it o!ten Eas content as ina##ro#riate even when it is not, and su%ers !rom man" biases-el"in on such a ha#ha9ard s"stem is not a reasonable #ath at all- So is all the h"#e around bi data anal"tics unusti5ed> Res andno- There are a##ro#riate use cases !or which massive datasets are intensel" use!ul, and #er!orm much better than an" alternativewe can imaine usin conventional methods- Success!ul e8am#les include usin oole searches to 5ure out dru interactions thatwould be too com#le8 and too numerous to anal"se one clinical trial at a time, or usin social media to detect national$level swinsin our mood (we are indeed ha##ier on Grida"s than on Monda"s.- 6n contrast, consider the lone wol!' attacer who too hostaesat, o! all thins, a 7indt hocolat a!V' in S"dne"- hocolate sho#s are not reular tarets o! #olitical violence, and random, cra9ed


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men attacin them is not a #attern on which we can base !urther identi5cation- Res, the S"dne" attacer claimed ihadi ideolo"and brouht a blac Ea with 6slamic writin on it, but iven the rarit" o! such events, itWs not alwa"s #ossible to se#arate the ihadirhetoric !rom issues o! mental health & ever" eraWs mentall" ill are a%ected b" the cultural #atterns around them- This isnWt a ob !orbi data anal"tics- (The !act that the unman was on bail !acin various chares and was nown !or sendin hate letters to the!amilies o! Australian soldiers illed overseas suests it was a ob !or traditional #olicin.- 4hen con!ronted with their !ailures in

#redictin those rare acts o! domestic terrorism, hereWs what 1U, and indeed the NSA, should have said instead o! asin!or increased surveillance ca#abilities: sto# asinus to collect more and more data to #er!orm an

im#ossible tas-This lut o! data is main our ob harder, not easier, and the e8#ectation that therewill never be such incidents, ever, is not realistic-


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;#C Materials


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;#C #'to @C!lan ' Bund HUMINTA

8 s ke1* C!lan won>t solve. doesn>t

cut ack on data overload*


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2niversit" o! 6llinois, )) (4hat ho#e !or 12M6NT>,' Washington Times, Ma" Yth,accessible online at htt#:www-washintontimes-comnews))ma"Y)))P)Y$)*P0$PPPr>#aeZall, accessed on $0)$*P.

Assumin Mie 1a"den is con5rmed as the new director, basic 6A housecleanin' should continue& ha##enin at the same time will be sini5cant budetar" shi!ts !rom hih$tech remote$

sensin' intellience o#erations, to human$intellience collection, the traditional 6Amission- Because the entrenched 6A senior bureaucrac" remains resistant tochane, itWs also !air to as i! the 6A can im#rove its hum an$int ellience collection

even if we s!end a lot more mone1 on it* The answer in the shorter term & threeto *) "ears & is #robabl" no,' and whether we can do it !or the loner term is not at all clear "et- 4h" such aneative assessment> 7ooin at how we have done in the #ast with human intellience #rovides at least anindicator o! our #robable success: Our archenem" !or P) "ears, the Soviet 2nion, #roved ver" hard to collect aainstusin human sources- And, !or most o! the old 4ar we seemed oblivious to this: Man" sources we used were

double aents and #la"ed us lie an oran,' as the e8#ression oes- A #rimar" wa" to et human

intellience & #a" !or it & can too often ecome the onl1 wa1 , because itis sim#l" easier- And, we have #robabl" #aid a lot o! mone" over the "ears !or bad

in!ormation & much o! it #lanted with us b" double aents- Traditionall", we have beenunable to develo# lon$term, well$#laced sources in other countries - The reason is that thetime re=uired & sometimes ) "ears & seems be"ond our com#rehension and the abilit" o! our overnment to

!und and ee# secret !or sustained #eriods-Too o!ten, our idea o! cover' !or our aents wassomethin "our mother& let alone the B & could have 5ured out in about 0) seconds -4e have the wron ind o! #eo#le doin the wor: Des#ite bein the most culturall" diverse !ree nation in theworld, we seem to send blond$haired, blue$e"ed #eo#le to do intellience 5eld wor- The" sim#l" canWt do themission in toda"Ws world & however, the" seem to rise to leadershi# #ositions without di;cult"- 4hat should we do>(*. 4e have to tae a ver" critical loo at ourselves- This cannot be done obectivel" b" the 6A and the otheraencies because their #rimar" !ocus is on the ver" short term & ettin more mone" to s#end- The #resident &consultin with the 6ntellience ommittees in onress & should call toether a rou# o! e8#erts, includincounterintellience e8#erts, and chart out a lon$term 12M6NT collection strate"- 4e should et their uidance,onress should !und it and the #resident carr" it out- (. 6t isnWt written in stone that the traditional 12M6NT roles,missions and collection authorities o! the various intellience aencies should sta" the same- 6n !act, ever"thin

should be on the table and no aenc" should e8#ect its traditional 12M6NT mission will remain intact- On #a#er atleast, the new director o! national intellience (DN6. would seem em#owered to direct this ind o! reallocation o!mission- (0. Too o!ten, our intellience collections overseas are based on second$ and third$hand re#orts, and o!tenobtained !rom host or other nationsW intellience services- As these re#orts are anal"9ed and similarities are seenand written about, itWs eas" to see how we can be misled b" rou# s#ea' re#ortin, mostl" controlled b" sourceswe have no wa" o! assessin- S#"in is s#"in: 4e should do more o! it on our own throuhout the world and etour own, 5rsthand in!ormation- (+. Most 12M6NT collections should be controlled centrall": 7ocal authoritiesoverseas & includin the 2-S- ambassador in the countr" concerned and the reional militar" commander & shouldnot, ordinaril", be in the loo#' !or such activities- (P. There has been wa" too much em#hasis on o#en source're#ortin, and itWs become a crutch !or a number o! aencies- Man" so$called o#en sources' are mani#ulated b"those o##osed to us, whether we consider them our !riends' or not- And, wa" too o!ten, o#en source' re#ortinust means someone readin a !orein news#a#er & then writin an intellience' re#ort on it- 4ill these

recommendations wor> 4e donWt have an" choice: 4e are sim#l" not ettin the criticalin!ormation we need to be res#onsive to the ever$broadenin s#ectrum o! threats

!rom terrorism - And, unless we can #enetrate terrorist orani9ations, includin their#lannin and 5nancin, weWll sim#l" be unable to #revent more terrorist attacsaainst us around the world and at home- Nevertheless, even i! we do all these thins & and dothem riht & we ma" be *P or ) "ears awa" !rom develo#in a true world class' 12M6NT collection ca#abilit": as

ood, !or e8am#le as some o! our e" adversaries have had aainst us !or "ears- But letWs mae sure we

sta" on tas and do it riht & not ust ing our mone1 in a di$erent

direction for a few 1ears*
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2006/may/8/20060508-091537-5575r/?page=allhttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2006/may/8/20060508-091537-5575r/?page=allhttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2006/may/8/20060508-091537-5575r/?page=allhttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2006/may/8/20060508-091537-5575r/?page=all


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# shift in intelligence gathering !riorit1 is ke1 commanders

still !rioriti-e drones !ost'counter!lan*

)I &/& Business 6nsider, maor 2S business ournal & B"line: obert aruso, )*+

(1ere


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these sources are the 5rst to o and not be re#laced- These sources are vital to our

securit", the" cannot e !ut on ice and immediatel1 called u! and#ut in #lace to meet each new threat, whether o;ciall" assined or as nono;cialcover aents (NOs.- This taes time, and the time to do it is now- om#lete theGB6Ws reorani9ation o! its data atherin and data minin electronic ca#abilit"- Hast

e%orts have !ailed to trans!orm this e8tremel" valuable resource into a s"stem thatcan su##l" needed intellience to 6A and other e" aencies- Need to share' is

ust as im#ortant as need to now-' The cost is hih, but well worth it- Hre$em#tiveand #reventive intellience- The intellience athered b" modern diital technolo"on a ra#id basis should be made available to all #ersonnel chared with s#ottinsus#ected terrorists at various #oints o! entr" as will those on the watch listsseein to E" on commercial aircra!t- An" use!ul intellience athered abroad mustbe #rom#tl" conve"ed to securit" o;cers looin !or sus#ected individuals andcaro so that the #rom#t and #reventive #olic" can be more e%ective- 6m#roveNational /stimates- The loner$view estimates have o!ten been nelected b"consumers at the 4hite 1ouse and elsewhere in !avor o! the current intellience'

that seems to be more readil" actionable- The N6/s have real, thouh less a##arentvalue, in s#ottin trends and conditions that could result in hostile action aainstthe 2nited States and should be elevated in =ualit" and #resentation- etention o!obectivit"- 4e ma" e8#ect in a troubled world durin this centur" that our leadersma" want to cherr"$#ic the intellience to su##ort a #reviousl" determined#roram !or action- 6ntellience o;cers must not onl" be seen to be obectiveL the"must #rotect the wor #roduct !rom distortion b" the consumers that can onl"undermine its credibilit"- This can be a touh assinment, but it must be done- Oursatellites #roect im#ortant imaer" and sinals intellience that e8#and ourunderstandin o! #otentiall" hostile activities and should be enhanced wherever#ossible- The" do not, however, re#lace the need !or on$the$round intellience

about the intentions and ca#abilities o! our adversaries- A well$#laced human sourcecan be o! critical im#ortance in e8#licatin the #ur#ose o! such activities detectedb" our electronic e"es and ears-' Similarl", human intellience can also be anim#ortant !actor in hel#in our electronic tools !ocus u#on unusual #lans oractivities on the round- /ach is im#ortant in earl" detection and anal"sis- Toether,the" can mae an im#ortant contribution to the sa!et" o! our nation b" avoidinsur#rise and miscalculation o! the intentions and ca#abilities o! our adversaries andare thus indis#ensable to our #olic"$maers in reachin sound decisions in the bestinterest o! our countr"- Hublic source in!ormation must also be !actored in- But i! wewant to avoid sur#rises lie Hearl 1arbor and ** we must have access to closel"

uarded secrets- Humint cannot e an afterthought*


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#$ Turns vs* Terror DisadInfo'overload ig data oods the s1stem with false !ositives

and stalls counter'terror o!s

%chwart-. &?

(Mattathias Schwart9, a sta% writer, bean contributin to the maa9ine in )**- AMassacre in Jamaica,' his investiation into the e8tradition o! hristo#her oe, wonthe )** 7ivinston Award !or international re#ortin- 1e has re#orted !or themaa9ine !rom the Mos=uito oast, Tri#oli, and Xuccotti Har- Between )) and))P, he edited and #ublished the twent"$one$issue run o! the Hhiladel#hia6nde#endent, a broadsheet news#a#er, The 4hole 1a"stac',htt#:www-new"orer-commaa9ine)*P)*whole$ha"stac, Januar" , )*P,a-.

6tWs #ossible that Moalin would have been cauht without Section *P - 1is #honenumber was a common lin amon #endin G-B-6- investiations,' accordin to a re#ort

!rom the Hrivac" and ivil 7iberties Oversiht Board (H7OB., an inde#endent aenc" created in ))+ at thesuestion o! the ** ommission, which Obama had tased with assessin Section *P- 7ater, in a conressional

budet re=uest, the De#artment o! Justice said that the Moalin case was #art o! abroader investiation into Shabaab !undin- Senator on 4"den, o! Oreon, who, lie 7eah", has#ressured the N-S-A- to usti!" bul surveillance, said, To suest that the overnment needed tos#" on millions o! law$abidin #eo#le in order to catch this individual is sim#l" nottrue-' 1e continued, 6 still havenWt seen an" evidence that the dranet surveillance o!AmericansW #ersonal in!ormation has done a sinle thin to im#rove 2-S- nationalsecurit"-' e#resentative James Sensenbrenner, o! 4isconsin, who introduced the Hatriot Act in the 1ouse,areed- The intellience communit" has never made a com#ellin case that bulcollection sto#s terrorism,' he told me- halid al$MihdharWs #hone calls to Remenmonths be!ore he hel#ed hiac American Airlines Gliht , on ** , ledObama,Ale8ander, Geinstein, and others to suest that Section *P could have #revented theattacs- 4e now that we didnWt sto# **,' Ale8ander told me last s#rin- Heo#le were tr"in, but the" didnWthave the tools- This tool, we believed, would hel# them-' But the H7OB !ound that it was notnecessar" to collect the entire nationWs callin records' to 5nd Mihdhar- 6 ased 4illiam ore,who was runnin the G-B-6-Ws San Dieo o;ce at the time, i! the Hatriot Act would have made a di%erence- ould we

have #revented **> 6 donWt now,' he said- Rou canWt 5nd somebod" i! "ouWre not looin !orthem-' 7ast "ear, as evidence o! the 5!t"$!our disru#ted #lots came a#art, man" #eo#le in 4ashinton shi!tedtheir rhetoric on Section *P awa" !rom s#eci5c cases and toward h"#otheticals and analoies- 6 have a 5re$insurance #olic" on m" house,' obert 7itt, the eneral counsel o! the O;ce o! the Director o! National 6ntellience,said- 6 donWt determine whether 6 want to ee# that 5re$insurance #olic" b" the number o! times itWs #aid o%-'

James la##er, the director o! National 6ntellience, has called this the#eace$o!$mindmetric-' Michael 7eiter, who led the National ounterterrorism enterunder eore 4- Bushand Obama, told me that Section *P was use!ul but not indis#ensable: ould we live withoutSection *P> Res- 6tWs not the most essential #iece- But it would increase ris and mae some thins harder-' 6n

addition to #hone metadata, the N-S-A- has used Section *P to collect records !rom hotels,car$rental aencies, state D-M-I-s, landlords, credit$card com#anies, and the lie,'accordin to Justice De#artment re#orts- Once the N-S-A- has the #hone metadata, it can

circulate them throuh a shared database called the cor#orate store-'To some, this

sounds less like 3re insurance and more like a live'in 3re
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/01/26/whole-haystackhttp://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/01/26/whole-haystack


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marshal. authori-ed to root through the sock drawer in search

of ammale material - The o#en abuse is how the" use that data,' Mieerman, a !ormer G-B-6- aent and lobb"ist !or the A--7-2-, who is now a !ellow at the Brennanenter, said- 6tWs no loner about investiatin a #articular sus#ect-' 6n )*0, 7e Monde#ublished documents !rom /dward SnowdenWs archive showin that the N-S-A- obtained sevent"

million Grench #hone$metadata records in one month- 6t is unnown whether an" o! these callscould be retros#ectivel" associated with the Haris attacs- The interestin thin to now would be whether thesebrothers made #hone calls to Remen in a wa" that would have been collected b" a #roram lie Section *P oranother sinals intellience #roram,' 7eiter told me last wee- 6 donWt now the answer to that =uestion-' Hhili#Mudd, a !ormer -6-A- and senior G-B-6- o;cial, told me that tall"in u# individual cases did not ca#ture the !ull valueo! Section *P- Tr" to imaine a =uicer wa" to understand a human bein in )*P,' he said- Tae this woman inHaris- 4ho is she> 1ow are "ou oin to 5ure that out> Rou need historical data on ever"thin she ever touched, toaccelerate the investiation- Now, do we want to do that in America> ThatWs a di%erent =uestion, a #olitical

=uestion-' Documents released b" Snowdenand #ublished b" the 4ashinton Host show that theN-S-A- accounted !or [*)-P billion o! the [P- billion blac budet, ' the to#$secretbudet !or 2-S- intellience s#endin, in )*0- About seventeen billion dollars o! theblac budet oes to counterterrorism each "ear, #lus billions more throuh theunclassi5ed budets o! the Hentaon, the State De#artment, and other aencies,

#lus a s#ecial 5ve$billion$dollar !und #ro#osed b" Obamalast "ear to 5htthe 6slamic Statein 6ra= and al$Sham (6S6S.-The ma8imalist a##roach to intellience is not limited to theN-S-A- orto Section *P- A central terrorist watch listis called theTerrorist 6dentities Datamart/nvironment, orT6D/- Accordin to a classi5ed re#ort released b" the 4eb site the 6nterce#t, T6D/, which is e#tb" the National ounterterrorism enter, lists more than a million #eo#le-The -6-A-, the N-S-A-,and the G-B-6- can all nominate' new individuals - 6n the wees be!ore the )*0 hicaoMarathon, anal"sts #er!ormed due dilience' on all o! the records in T6D/ o!#eo#le who held a drivers license in 6llinois, 6ndiana, and 4isconsin -' This was basedon the lessons learned !rom the Boston Marathon-' 6n retros#ect, ever" terrorist attacleaves a data trailthat a##ears to be dotted with missed o##ortunities- 6n the case o! **, therewas MihdharWs landlord, the air#ort cler who sold Mihdhar his one$wa" ticet !or cash, and the state troo#er who

#ulled over another hiacer on Se#tember th- 6n Auust, ))*, G-B-6- head=uarters !ailed toissue a search warrant !or one o! the cons#iratorsW la#to#s, des#ite a warnin !romthe Minnea#olis 5eld o;ce that he was enaed in #re#arin to sei9e a Boein +$+)) in commission o! a terrorist act-'There was #lent" o! material in theha"stac-The overnment had ade=uate tools to collect even more-The #roblemwasthe tendenc" o! intellience aencies to hoard in!o rmation, as well as the conitivedi;cult" o! antici#atin a s#ectacular and un#recedented attac- The ** ommission called this a !ailure o! theimaination-' Gindin needles, the commission wrote in its re#ort, is eas" when "ouWre looin bacward,

dece#tivel" so- The" =uoted the historian oberta 4ohlstetter writin about Hearl 1arbor: 6tis much easiera!ter the event to sort the relevant !rom the irrelevant sinals- A!ter the event, o! course, asinal is alwa"s cr"stal clearL we can now see what disaster it was sinalin since the disaster has occurred- But

be!ore the event it is obscure and #renant with conEictin meanins- Be!ore the event, ever" bit o! ha" is

#otentiall" relevant- The most danerous adversaries will be the ones who most success!ull" disuise theirindividual transactions to a##ear normal, reasonable, and leitimate,' Ted Senator, a data scientist who wored onan earl" #ost$** #roram called Total 6n!ormation Awareness, said, in ))- Since then, intellience o;cials haveo!ten re!erred to lone$wol! terrorists,' cells,' and, as Ale8ander has #ut it, the terrorist who wals amon us,' as

thouh Al Uaeda were a 5!th column, ca#able o! camouEain itsel! within civil societ"- Hatric Sinner, a!ormer -6-A- case o;cer who wors with the Sou!an rou#, a securit" com#an",told me that this imae is wron - 4e new about these networs,' he said, s#eain o! the

harlie 1ebdo attacs- Mass surveillance, he continued, ives a false sense of


18/54

securit1 - 6t sounds reat when "ou sa" "ouWre monitorin ever" #hone call in the

2nited States- Rou can #ut that in a HowerHoint- But, actuall", 1ou have no

idea what>s going on -' B" ooding the s1stem with false

!ositives , bi$data a##roaches to counterterror ismmiht actuall" mae it harder

to identif1 real terrorists efore the1 act-Two "ears be!ore the BostonMarathon bombin,Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the older o! the two brothers alleed to have committed theattac, was assessed b" the cit"Ws Joint Terrorism Tas Gorce-The" determined that hewas not a threat- This was one o! about a thousand assessments that the BostonJ-T-T-G-conducted that "ear, a number that had nearl" doubled in the #revious two "ears ,accordin to the Boston G-B-6- As o! )*0, the Justice De#artment has trained nearl" threehundred thousand law$en!orcement o;cers in how to 5le sus#icious$activit"re#orts-' 6n )*), a central database held about three thousand o! thesere#ortsL b"

)* it had rown to almost twent"$eiht thousand- The igger ha1stack

makes it harder to 3nd the needle ,' Sensenbrenner told me- Thomas Drae, a

!ormer N-S-A- e8ecutive and whistle$blowerwho has become one o! the aenc"Ws most vocal critics,toldme, If 1ou target ever1thing. there>s no targe t -' Drae !avorswhathe calls a traditional law$en!orcement' a##roach to terrorism, atherin moreintellience on a smaller set o! tarets - Decisions about which tarets matter, he said,should be driven b" human e8#ertise , not b" a database- One alternative to data$driven

counterterrorism is alread" bein used b" the G-B-6- and other aencies- nown as counterin v iolent

e8tremism,' this a##roach bears some resemblance to the communit"$#olicin #roramso! the nineteen$nineties, in which law en!orcement builds a listenin relationshi#with local leaders- The inds o! #eo#le "ou want to loo !or, someone in thecommunit" miht have seen them 5rst,' Mudd said- A!ter the Moalin arrests, the 2-S- Attorne"Ws

o;ce in San Dieo bean hostin a bimonthl" Somali roundtable'withre#resentatives !romthe G-B-6-, the De#artment o! 1omeland Securit", the sheri%Ws o;ce, local #olice, and man"Somali orani9ations- The"Wve done a lot o! wor to reach out and e8#lain what the"Wre about,' AbdiMohamoud, the Somali non#ro5t director, who has attended the meetins, said- Does the Moalin case usti!" #uttinthe #hone records o! hundreds o! millions o! 2-S- citi9ens into the hands o! the !ederal overnment> Sto##in themone" is a bi deal,' Joel Brenner, the N-S-A-Ws !ormer ins#ector eneral, told me- Ale8ander called MoalinWs actions

the seed o! a !uture terrorist attac or set o! attacs-' But Senator 7eah" contends that sto##in a!ew thousand dollars, in one instance, over thirteen "ears, is a wea trac record -

The #roram invades AmericansW #rivac"' and has not been #roven to bee%ective,'he said last wee- The Moalin case, he continued, was not a \#lotW but, rather, a material$su##ort#rosecution !or sendin a !ew thousand dollars to Somalia-' On June *st, Section *P and the rovin wireta#'#rovision o! the Hatriot Act will e8#ire- Sensenbrenner told me that he doesnWt e8#ect onress to renew either

unless Section *P is revised- 6! onress new in ))* how the G6SA court was oin tointer#ret it, 6 donWt thin the Hatriot Act would have #assed,' he told me-

%u!eruous data !revents the government from sto!!ing

actual terror !lots

Ereenwald. &/


19/54

(lenn reenwald is a ournalist, constitutional law"er, and author o! !our New Ror Timesbest$sellin boos on #olitics and law- 1is most recent boo, No Hlace to 1ide, is about the2-S- surveillance state and his e8#eriences re#ortin on the Snowden documents around theworld- Hrior to his collaboration with Hierre Omid"ar, lennWs column was !eatured at Theuardian and Salon- 1e was the debut winner, alon with Am" oodman, o! the Har enter6-G- Stone Award !or 6nde#endent Journalism in ))Y, and also received the )*) Online

Journalism Award !or his investiative wor on the abusive detention conditions o! helseaMannin- Gor his )*0 NSA re#ortin, he received the eore Hol award !or NationalSecurit" e#ortinL the annett Goundation award !or investiative ournalism and theannett Goundation watchdo ournalism awardL the /sso Hremio !or /8cellence in6nvestiative e#ortin in Bra9il (he was the 5rst non$Bra9ilian to win., and the /lectronicGrontier GoundationWs Hioneer Award- Alon with 7aura Hoitras, Gorein Holic" maa9inenamed him one o! the to# *)) lobal Thiners !or )*0- The NSA re#ortin he led !or The

uardian was awarded the )*+ Hulit9er Hri9e !or #ublic service C what a baller, No Hlaceto 1ide', htt#:www-simoleonsense-comsnowden$the$nsa$and$the$u$s$surveillance$state$ some dude transcribed #arts o! the boo here so swa, a-.

Surveillance cheerleadersessentiall" o%er onl" one arument in de!ense o! mass

surveillance: it is onl" carried out to sto# terrorism and ee# #eo#le sa!e-6ndeed, invoin ane8ternal threat is a historical tactic o! choice to ee# the #o#ulation submissive toovernment #owers-' That same month, ObamaWshand$#iced advisor" #anel(com#osed o!,amon others, a !ormer 6A de#ut" director anda !ormer 4hite 1ouse aide, and convened tostud" the NSA #roram throuh access to classi5ed in!ormation. concluded that the metadata

#roram was not essential to !reventing attacks and could readil"have been obtained in a timel" manner usin conventional ?court@ orders -' Therecord is indeed =uite #oor-The collect$it$all s"stem did nothin to detect, let alonedisru#t, the )* Boston Marathon bombin- 6t did not detect the attem#ted hristmas $da" bombin o! a etliner over Detroit , or the #lan to blow u# Times S=uare , or the #lotto attac the New Ror it" subwa" s"stem&all o! which were sto##ed b" alert b"standers or

traditional #olice #owers- 6tcertainl" did nothin to sto# the strin o! mass shootins!rom Aurora to Newtown- Maor international attacs!rom 7ondon to Mumbai to Madrid#roceeded without detection, des#ite involvin at least do9ens o! o#eratives-' 6n !act,

mass surveillance hashad =uite the o##osite e%ect: it makes detecting and

sto!!ing terror more diKcult - Democratic onressmanush 1olt, a #h"sicist and

one o! the !ew scientists in onress, has made the #oint that collecting ever1thing

aout ever1one>s communications onl1 oscures actual !lots

eing discussed 1 actual terrorists - Directed rather than indiscriminatesurveillance would "ield more s#eci5c and use!ul in!ormation -' American d"in in a

terrorist attac is in5nitesimal, considerabl" less than the chance o! bein struc b"lihtnin- John Mueller, an Ohio State 2niversit" #ro!essor who has written e8tensivel" about thebalance between threat and e8#enditures in 5htin terrorism, e8#lainedin )**: Thenumber o!#eo#le worldwide who are illedb"Muslim$t"#e terrorists, Al Uaeda wannabes, is ma"be a!ew hundred outside o! war 9ones- 6tWs basicall" the same numbero! #eo#le who diedrownin in the bathtubeach "ear-' More American citi9ens have undoubtedl"' diedoverseas !rom tra;c accidents or intestinal illnesses ,' the news aenc" Mclatch" re#orted,than !rom terrorism-' A!ter the trouble$!ree Ol"m#ics, Ste#hen 4alt noted in Gorein Holic" that the outcr"
http://www.simoleonsense.com/snowden-the-nsa-and-the-u-s-surveillance-state/http://www.simoleonsense.com/snowden-the-nsa-and-the-u-s-surveillance-state/http://www.simoleonsense.com/snowden-the-nsa-and-the-u-s-surveillance-state/http://www.simoleonsense.com/snowden-the-nsa-and-the-u-s-surveillance-state/


20/54

was driven, as usual, b" severe e8aeration o! the threat- 1e cited an essa" b" John Mueller and Mar - Stewartin 6nternational Securit" !or which the authors had anal"9ed 5!t" cases o! #ur#orted 6slamic terrorist #lots' aainst

the 2nited States, onl" to conclude that virtuall" all o! the #er#etrators were

\incom!etent , ine%ective, unintellient, idiotic, inorant, unorani9ed,misuided, muddled, amateurish, do#e", unrealistic, moronic, irrational, and!oolish-W' Mueller and Stewart =uoted !rom lenn arle, !ormer de#ut" national intellience o;cer !ortransnational threats, who said, 4e must see ihadists !or the small, lethal, disointed andmiserable o##onents that the" are,' and the" noted that al$UaedaWs ca#abilities are !arin!erior to its desires-'

Not enough resources to watch ever1one undermines actual

counter surveillance

,ol-. &/

(Dustin, The National Journal, Snowden: Overreliance on Mass Surveillance Abetted

Boston Marathon Bombin: The !ormer NSA contractor sa"s a !ocus on masssurveillance is im#edin traditional intellience$atherin e%orts&and allowinterrorists to succeed', October ), )*+, a-.

/dward Snowdenon Monda" suested that i! theNational Securit" Aenc" !ocusedmoreontraditional intellience atherin&and less onits mass$surveillance#rorams&it couldhave thwarted the)*0 BostonMarathon bombins- The !uitive leaer, s#eain via video to a1arvard class, said that a #reoccu#ation with collectin bul communications data has led

to resource constraints at 2-S- intellience aencies, o!ten leavin moretraditional, tareted methods o! s#"in on the bac burner- 34e miss attacs, we miss

leads, and investiations !ail becausewhen the overnment isdoing its

0collect it all.0 where we0re watching ever1od1. we0re notseeing an1thing with s#eci5cit" because it is im#ossible to ee# an e"e on all o!"our tarets,3 Snowden told 1arvard #ro!essor and 6nternet !reedom activist 7awrence 7essi- 3A ood e8am#leo! this is, actuall", the Boston Marathon bombins-3 Snowden said that D9hohar and TamerlanTsarnaevwere#ointed out b" ussian intellience to 2-S- o;cials #rior to the bombins last "ear that illed three and le!t hundreds wounded, butthat such actionable intellience was larel"inored- 1e arued that tareted surveillance on nown e8tremists and dilient #ursuito! intellience leads #rovides !or better counterterrorism e%orts than mass s#"in-34e didn


21/54

watchinsim#l" because it ma" have value, at the e2!ense of eing ale to

watch s!eci3c !eo!le !or which we have a s#eci5c cause !or investiatin ,and that


22/54

HUMINT ke1

HUMINT ke1 to success to counter state and non'state threats*

Wilkinson 4&5

evin - 4ilinson C 2nited States Arm" 4ar ollee- The author is a !ormer ounterintellienceom#an" ommander, )Pth Militar" 6ntellience Battalion- This thesis #a#er was overseen b"Hro!essor harles D- Allen o! the De#artment o! ommand 7eadershi# and Manaement- Thismanuscri#t is submitted in #artial !ul5llment o! the re=uirements o! the Master o! Strateic StudiesDeree- The 2-S- Arm" 4ar ollee is accredited b" the ommission on 1iher /ducation o! the MiddleStates Association o! ollees and Schools C 2n#aralleled Need: 1uman 6ntellience ollectors in the2nited States Arm"' $ March )*0 $ htt#:www-dtic-milci$binetTDoc>ADZADAP))

6n the twent"$5rst centur",the role o! 12M6NT is more im#ortant than ever- As em#lo"eddurin the old 4ar, a sini5cant #ortion o! intellience was collected usin S66NT and /O6NT methods- The O/ assessment nowdiscerns a h"brid threat encom#assin both conventional and as"mmetric war!are, which is di;cult to obtain usin S66NT and

/O6NT alone- 2nlie other intellience collectiondisci#lines, environmental conditions such asweather or terrain do not hinder HUMINT collectors-* 12M6NT collection #la"ed a e" roledurin O#eration 6AU6 G//DOM- O6G was initiall" a !orce$on$!orce round war usin traditional maneuver !orces- A!ter si8 months

o! conventional conict andon the vere o! de!eat, the 6ra=i armed !orces, with the assistance o!

insurents, em#lo"ed as1mmetrical warfare - The continuation o! conventional war!are #aired with theas"mmetric threat created a h"brid threat-12M6NT is e%ective when counterin aconventional threatthat consists o! lare sinatures, such as discernin troo# movement- 1owever, itbecomes invaluable when #resented with an as"mmetrical threat that entails asmaller sinature, such as !ocusin on rou#s o! insurents , which other intelliencecollection disci#lines cannotsolel" collect on-

)W and nuclear use coming* HUMINT ke1 to sta1'ahead of

these risks*

6ohnson 47

Dr- 7och - Johnson is eents Hro!essor o! Holitical Science at the 2niversit" o! eoria- 1e is editor o!the ournal 36ntellience and National Securit"3 and has written numerous boos on American !orein#olic"- Dr- Johnson served as sta% director o! the 1ouse Subcommittee on 6ntellience Oversiht !rom* to *- Dr- Johnson earned his Hh-D- in #olitical science !rom the 2niversit" o! ali!ornia ativerside- 3/valuatin 31umint3: The ole o! Gorein Aents in 2-S- Securit"3 Ha#er #resented at theannual meetin o! the 6SA


23/54

reason, overnment o;cialsleaders see in!ormation about the ca#abilities and&an es#eciall" elusive to#ic&theintentions o! those overseas(or subversives at home. who can inEict harmu#on the nation-

That is the core #ur#ose o! es#ionae: to ather in!ormation about threats, whether e8ternal orinternal, andto warn leaders about #erils !acin the homeland- Gurther, the secret services ho#e to #rovideleaders with data thatcanhel# advance the national interest&the o##ortunit" side o! the securit" e=uation-

Throuhthe #ractice o! es#ionae&s#"in or clandestine human intelligence : whichever is one


24/54

could cause- Abolition o! chemical wea#ons is less o! a #riorit" because, while the" can also ill millions o! #eo#le outriht, their#ersistence in the environment would be less than nuclear or bioloical aents or more locali9ed- 1ence, chemical wea#ons wouldhave a lesser e%ect on !uture enerations o! innocent #eo#le and the natural environment- 7ie the 1olocaust, once a locali9ed

chemical e8termination is over, it is over- 4ith nuclear and bioloical wea#ons, the illin will #robabl"never end-adioactive elements last tens o! thousands o! "ears and will ee#causin cancersvirtuall" !orever-Hotentiall" worse than that, bio$enineered aentsb" the hundreds withno nown cure

could wrec even reater calamit"on the human race than could #ersistent radiation- A6DS and

ebola viruses are ust a small e8am#le o! recentl" emerin #laues with no nown cure or vaccine- an we imaine hundreds o!

such #laues> 12MAN /QT6NT6ON 6S NO4 HOSS6B7/-


25/54

L2t* es esource Wars8 Most probableconict

Cairns /

John airns Jr, Distinuished Hro!essor o! /nvironmental Biolo" /meritus, De#artment o! Biolo" and Director/meritus, 2niversit" enter !or /nvironmental and 1a9ardous Materials Studies ] Iirinia Hol"technic 6nstitute andState 2niversit" C /co$/thics and Sustainabilit" /thics,' /thics in Science and /nvironmental Holitics,htt#:ottoinne-deese#boos/BHt-#d!^#aeZ

The most #robable cause o! this curious #osition is humanindWs obsession with rowth- On a 5nite #lanet with5nite resources, continued rowth induces scarcit"- Then, scarcit" leads to resource wars , massmiration , #olitical instabilit" and , aruabl" most im#ortantl", com#etition !or increasinl" scarceresources (e-- oil.- /=uitable and !air sharin o! resources, includin those needed to maintain the #lanetWsecoloical li!e$su##ort s"stem, will re=uire both sharin and #o#ulation control- 1umanind is ra#idl"a##roachin the time when it will be attem#tin to manae the entire #lanet !or sustainabilit"- 1al! the worldWshuman #o#ulation is livin marinall" or worse, and "et enner ())0a. re#orts that militar" e8#enditures are onthe rise- 6n ))*, a conservative estimate o! world militar" e8#enditures was 2S[Y0 billion, o! which the 2nited

States s#ends 0K and those states considered hostile to the 2nited States s#end 0K (enner, ))0a.- /ven so,e8#enditures !or the militar" are e8#ected to continue risin (Stevenson and Bumiller, ))L Dao, )).- /ven PKo! these !unds would #rovide a much needed #roramme to develo# alternative ener" sources, which would also

diminish the #erceived need !or resource wars- enner and Sheehan ())0. state that a##ro8imatel" ;?O o!

the P) wars and armed conEicts o! recent 1ears were triered or e8acerbated b"resource e8#loitation- 1ussein #ersisted as a #olitical leader b" usin resource mone" (in this case, oil. tomaintain #ower b" a variet" o! methods, includin murder- The use o! resource !unds to maintain #ower is all toocommon (e-- 7e Billon, ))*.- /ndin such misuse o! #ower and the resultant conEicts has #roven im#ossiblebecause it is di;cult to dis#lace the #ower elite (e-- 2nited Nations Securit" ouncil, )).-

8 )est studies !rove

Heinerg 4/

(ichard, ournalist, teaches at the ore Gacult" o! New ollee o! ali!ornia, on the Board o! Advisors o! the Solar7ivin 6nstitute and the Host arbon 6nstitute Hower Down', Hublished b" New Societ" Hublishers, #- PP$PY.

This is a #ersuasive line o! reasonin on the !ace o! it, but it ignores the realities o!how marets reall" wor- 6! the lobal maret were in !act able to #revent resource wars, the#ast hal!$centur" should have been a #eriod o! near$#er!ect #eace- But resource dis#utes

have instead eru#ted re!eatedl1 , and continue to do so-Just in the #ast twent" "ears,resource dis#utes have eru#ted over oil in Nieria, Aleria, olombia, Remen, 6ra= uwait,and Sudan L over< timber and natural as in 6ndonesia (Aceh.L and over co##er in

BouainvilleHa#ua New uinea $and this is !ar !rom bein an e8haustive list- 6n classical

economic theor1 , all actors within a maret s"stem act rationall" in #ursuit o! their own

interests, and no one bu"s or sells without an e8#ectation o! bene5t- 6n the real world ,

however, bu"ers and sellers enter the maret#lace with une(ual levels of !ower -Some economic #la"ers have wealth and wea#ons, while others don


26/54

institutions o! lobal trade (the 4orld Trade Orani9ation, toether with lendin aencies lie the 4orld Ban. areust as e%ective as the old colonial networs at trans!errin wealth !rom resource$rich #oor nations to militaril"

#ower!ul rich consumin nations, and that the !ailure o! these institutions to enable the !air

distribution o! resources will ultimatel" result in a greater likelihood of armed

conictwithin and between nations- The new #ost$colonial international s"stem wors to maintain anddee#en ine=ualities o! wealth #rimaril" throuh control (on the #art o! the wealth", #ower!ul nations. over the rulesand terms o! trade, and over the currencies o! trade-


27/54

L2t* )ulk Collection Tradeo$)ulk collection causes data overload makes law enforcement

less e$ective*

Ward 4&?

Stan 4ard C writer !or the #ublication Best IHM and has been involved in writin and teachin !or P)"ears- This article internall" =uotes 4illiam Binne", a !ounder o! ontrast Securit" and a !ormer NSAo;cial- NSA swam#ed with data overload also trashes the onstitution' C Grom the #ublication: BestIHN $ Ma" *Yth, )*P $ htt#s:www-bestv#n-comblo**Ynsa$swam#ed$with$data$overload$also$trashes$the$constitution

6t has lon been an arument o! the civil liberties crowd that bul data atherin was counter$

#roductive, i! not counter$ intuitive- The arument was couched in lanuae suestin that to @collect it

allA , as the then NSA director James la##er !amousl" decried, was to, in e%ect, ather nothin, as thechoin

amounts o! in!ormation collected would e so great as to e unale toe anal1-ed e$ectivel1* This assertion is su##orted b" 4illiam Binne" , a!ounder o! ontrast Securit" and a !ormer NSA o;cial, loin more than three decades at theaenc"-6n alludin to what he termed bul data !ailure', Binne" said that an anal"st toda" can run one sim#le=uer"across the NSAWs various databases, onl" to become immediatel" overloadedwith in!ormation-4ith about !our billion #eo#le (around two$thirds o! the worldWs #o#ulation. under the NSA and #artneraenciesW watch!ul e"es, accordin to his estimates, there is !ar too much data bein collected-

That>s wh1 the1 couldn>t sto! the )oston oming , or the Haris shootins,because the data was all there_The data was all there_ the NSA is reat at oin bac over it !orensicall" !or "ears tosee what the" were doin be!ore that- But that doesnWt sto# it-' Binne" is in a #osition to now, earnin hisstri#es durin the terrorism build u# that culminated with the ** 4orld Trade

enter bombinin ))*- 1e le!t ust da"s a!ter the draconian leislation nown as the 2SA Hatriot Act was enacted b"onress on the heels o! that attac- One o! the reasons which #rom#ted his leavin was the scra##in o! a surveillance s"stem onwhich he lon wored, onl" to be re#laced b" more intrusive s"stems-


28/54

#T: #ccumulo

8 #ccumulo>s not res!onsive to our human intel internal link*

Lven if N%# can !rocess a large (uantit1 of data. the (ualit1>s

low unless HUMINT>s involved*

8 #ccumulo fails )oston Marathon !roves it doesn>t 3nd the

needle*

Ponkel 4&5

Gran onel is the editorial events editor !or overnment /8ecutive Media rou# and a technolo"ournalist !or its #ublications- 1e writes about emerin technoloies, #rivac", c"bersecurit", #olic"and other issues at the intersection o! overnment and technolo"- 1e bean writin about technolo"

at Gederal om#uter 4ee- Gran is a raduate o! Michian State 2niversit"- NSA shows how bi


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#T: #ccumulo %olves t solve !rivac1 it can>t kee! info secure on

its own


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identi5cation o! #otential securit" concerns ma" hel# !uture studies learn more about Accumulo in!ormation securit" and lead todevelo#ment o! more secure Accumulo based a##lications-


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""Neg %ection starts here


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Bund HUMINT C


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&nc

Te2t: The U%BE should sustantiall1 oost the HUMINT udget*

%olves the #$ their onl1 internal link to HUMINT is a resource

tradeo$* We resolve that*

Poch4&

et alL Andrew - och is the Senior Iice Hresident !or De!ense and 1omeland Securit" issues at Scribe-An e8#ert on communications and the media, as well as maret assessments !or domestic andinternational de!ense clients, he leads ScribeWs #ractice in #rovidin such services as develo#ment andim#lementation o! strateic communications #lannin, media outreach su##ort, as well as evaluationo! de!ense com#anies and related overnment #rorams- Scribe is a Strateic Advisin 5rm- ArticleTitle: hronic 12M6NT under !undin blamed !or securit" !ailures' $ JaneWs De!ence 4eel" $ vol- 0,

no- *, 0*P0, #- +

6n the a!termath o! the carnae in New Ror and 4ashinton D (Se#tember **, ))*. hundreds o! =uestions will be ased as tohow such an audacious and co$ordinated attac could have ha##ened- This latest act o! terrorism, althouh the most horri5c to

date, is not the 5rst time that the 2S overnment has been cauht unaware- 6ndeed the subect o!


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;nc' solvenc1HUMINT re(uires etter integration with tech and more

funding onl1 the c! solves

%ano. &/

Association o! Gormer 6ntellience O;cer, Gormer De#ut" Director Nationallandestine Service entral 6ntellience Aenc"- BachelorWs Deree in HoliticalScience and a MasterWs in Asian Studies !rom St- JohnWs 2niversit" and a MasterWs o!6nternational A%airs !rom olumbia 2niversit"- (John, uide to the Stud" o!6ntellience The hanin Sha#e o! 12M6NT Dra!t', Association o! Gormer6ntellience O;cers, **+*+.T

The 6ntellience ommunit" will continue to undero chane- 6nEuenced as much b" domestic #olitics as

develo#ments be"ond our borders- Des#ite technoloical advances, 12M6NT will continue tooccu#" a critical role in #rovidin intellienceto 2-S- #olic"maers- Discernin #lans andintentions can onl" come !rom the recruitment o! human sources- /ven in!ormation stored diitall" o!ten re=uireshuman accessL and even with data that is e8tracted electronicall", there is still the re=uirement to inter#ret those

documents and how the" 5t into the larer conte8t- 1uman beins are essential to all #rocesses and o#erations Cwhether the" are #ublic or #rivatel" based- As such the" are the 5rst and last line o! securit"- The" are also the 5rst

and last entr" #oints into the intellience arena- As we continue to advance technoloicall", in essencemain our world smaller, the #otential threats #osed b" these advancements will mae both#rotectin and e8#loitin real secrets e8#onentiall" more di;cult- 6n addition, as thesechallenes continue to row, those tased with addressin them will need to adust at a much more ra#id rate- Thisa##lies both to 5eld o#eratives as well as to their manaers- As described above, the di%erences in e8#erience andcultural e8#ectations will continue to e8acerbate the relationshi#, but onl" tem#oraril" as the old uard,' or diital

immirants' raduall" ives wa" to the new uard,' or diital natives-'Traditional a##roaches toes#ionaeC while !ormin the bedroc !or 12M6NT, will have to be !urther aumented - The ne8teneration o! o#erativesand their manaers will need to be more !amiliar with, i! not ade#tat,technoloical aumentation- Aumentation, not re#lacement- 4hile the tendenc" to rel" increasinl"

on technolo" to mae 12M6NT collection more e;cient is commendable, adherence tothe core#rinci#als will ensure that human o#erations remainas secureas #ossible- onstrainedbudets,while o!ten c"clical in nature, will liel" remain Eat, i! not decreased, over the ne8t several"ears or loner-The 6ntellience ommunit", !or man" "ears immune to the e8iencies o! 5nancialdebate within onress C #articularl" durin times o! crises C is no loner e8em#t-4hile the old adae,there will alwa"s be mone" !or ood o#erations' will remain !airl" constant, whatconstitutes ood o#erations' ma" liel" shi!tC de#endent u#onthe #revailin #oliticalwind andthe #rioriti9ationo! com#etin re=uirements (both o#erational and structuraladministrative.- 6naddition, hirin and #romotions within the 6 are continent to a sini5cant deree on theavailabilit" o! !unds- 4hile both will continue C hirin de#endent on attrition rates and #romotions on#er!ormance metrics C the availabilit" o! both will be diminished- The im#act on the !uture eneration o! o;cerscannot be underestimated- 4ith a wor!orce that can be e8#ected to remain, on averae "ears, an" limitations on

advancement could have a deleterious e%ect on morale as well as retention- Toda"Ws 6 o;cers are however,e8ce#tionall" ada#tive, and resilient- Thouh the" ma" sta" !or a shorter #eriod o! time than their #redecessors,their accom#lishments


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Case Brontline


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&NC Case Brontline vs* the HUMINT #dvantage

The ha1stack matters and solves )LTTL than HUMINT* Turns

the case*


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usae to determine their creditworthiness-' The Hatriot Actwas written in ))*, be!ore an" o! theseadvances- 6t lets the NSA ee# anon"mous data about who is callin whom !or 5ve"earsL but, it isnWt able to a##l" alorithms to 5nd sus#icious #atterns- Anal"sts ma"e8amine call los !or sus#icious lins, onl" i! there is a #re$e8istin reasonable,articulable sus#icion' o! terrorism, or another threat to national securit"-There were *) such

searches last "ear,' ?)*+@- Be!ore the Snowden leastwo "ears ao, 6ntellienceaencies had #lanned to as onress to broaden their access to anon"mous data &so the" could use modern tools o! bi data- Technolo" has moved !ar ahead,leavin intellience $atherin stu#ider,' Mr- rovit9 wrote- A measure o! how !ar behind thetechnolo" curve the intellience aencies have become is that one o! the would$be cartoon illers #osted amessae on Twitter be!orehand, with the hashta ^Te8asAttac- 7aw en!orcement ?authorities@ didnWt s#ot it untila!ter the attac- 6n contrast, alorithms !or deliverin advertisin #arse sinals such as hashtas to deliver relevantads in real time_be!ore the online #ae loads-' 6n their )*0 boo, Bi Data: A evolution That 4ill Trans!orm1ow 4e 7ive, 4or, And Thin,' Iitor Ma"er$Schonberer and enneth uier describe the histor" o! in!ormation:As centuries #assed, we o#ted !or more in!ormation Eows rather than less, and to uard aainst its e8cesses & not#rimaril" throuh censorshi#L but, throuh rules that limited the misuse o! in!ormation-' 6n conclusion, Mr- rovit9

writes, onress shouldinsist that the NSA ensure its data are used #ro#erl" & no more Snowdens & but,also ive the aenc" authorit" to catch u# to how the #rivate sector uses data-

Holiticians should u#date the Hatriot Act b" #ermittin the intellience use o! data to#revent terrorism-' Ma##in Terror Networs: 4h" Metadata And The \1a"stacW MattersHhili# Mudd, !ormer De#ut" Director o! the 6AWs ounter$Terrorism enter, and Senior 6ntellience Adviser to theGB6, ?at the time his article was #ublished@, wrote an O#$/d in the Dec- 0), )*+ 4all Street Journal notin that the6A, GB6, and the entire 2-S- 6ntellience ommunit" and national securit" establishment had devoted countlesshours as to how best can ?we@ clari!" ?and #osture ourselves reardin@ the blurrin #icture o! an emerin terror

cons#irac" ?aimed at the 2nited States@ oriinatin overseas, or inside the 2nited States- 1ow can weidenti!" the e" #la"ers(networlin anal"sis. and the broader networ o! their!undraisers?enablers@, radicali9ers, travel !acilitators and others_-=uicl" enouh so that the"canWt succeed>,' as well as #rotect civil liberties- And,' Mr- Mudd adds, how do we ensure thatweWve \ma##edW the networ enouh to dismantle it>L or at a minimum, disru#t it>'

Mr- Mudd observes, in essence, 1ou need a ha1stack in order to 3nd a

needle -' 7ast "ear, Gederal A##eals ourt Jude 4illiam 1- Haule" ruled NSA metadata collection law!ulL andadded, the overnment needs a wide net that can isolate ossamer contacts amonsus#ected terrorists in an ocean o! seeminl" disconnected dataL12M6NT is the moredesirable method o! collectin this ind o! in!ormation & but, atherin critical 12M6NT is o!tendi;cult and time consumin,' not to mention that the Obama administration has been reat at dronin

terroristsL but, hasnWt added a sinle individual to uantanamo Ba" Hrison- Dead men tell no tales-ou can>t

get critical HUMIINT if 1ou stick 1our head in the sand andre!use to establish an interroation !acilit"!or this ver" #ur#ose- Treatin terrorists as criminals tobe tried in a \normalW court o! law is absurd, counter#roductive, and danerous- As Mr- Mudd wrote at the time,ma##in a networ o! #eo#le is sim#le in conce#tL but, com#le8 in #ractice: 5nd the e" o#erators, and then 5ndthe su##ort rou#- Ma# a networ #oorl", and "ou ma" miss #eri#heral #la"ers who will recreate a cons#irac" a!ter

the core o! cons#irators are arrested-The oal,' Mr- Mudd said, is to eliminate the entire s#ider$web o! cons#irac"L cutting o$ a !iece like an arm of a star3sh. is a

!oor second choice & the star5shWs arm & reenerates-' 6nvestiators alsoneed an historical #ool o! data,' Mr- Mudd arued at the time,that the" can access onl"when the" have in!ormation that startswith a nown, or sus#ected cons#irator & inthe middle o! a s#ider$web the" donWt !ull" understand,' and is missin a !ew corners- 4ho is watchers is aleitimate concernL and, a health" se#ticism about overnment claims !or access to even more #ersonal data_is

desirable, warranted, and needed- But, the !urther and !urther we move awa" & in time & !romthe


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Se#tember **, ))* terrorist attac here on the 2-S- homeland & the more we seem to lose theraison dW tere !or wh" we #assed the Hatriot Actin the 5rst #lace- As the 6ntellience ommunit"and 7aw /n!orcement authorities with res#ect to the mass collection o! #hone data are allowed to atro#h" anderode & our abilit" to !erret out and discover #otential terrorist attacs aainst the 2-S- homeland also deca"- 6 amnot sure 6 now the riht answer as to where the balance lied & between the #rotection o! civil liberties, versus there=uirement to collect \enouhW data & that enables our intellience and law en!orcement #ro!essionals to &

connect the dots- But, 6 thin 6 now one thin !or sure- 6! we do su%er a lare$scale terrorist eventhere at home & onthe scale o! ** or worse& and, it is determined that we liel"would have been able to discover this event be!ore hand & i! we had allowed a more

reasonable bi data minin strata& there will be hell to #a" & and, #erha#s a

idZ*P0)

MR A2M/NT is that classic resource wars&hot conEicts driven b" a strule to rab resources&are

increasingl1 rare* Lven where resources !la1 a role. the1 are rarel1 the

root cause of loodshed * ather, the root cause usuall" lies in various !ailures o! overnance- Thatarument&in both its classic !orm and in its more nuanced incarnation&is hardl" a straw man, as Thomas 1omer$Di8on asserts- Settin aside h"#erbole, the #unditr" increasinl" #oints to resources as a cause o! war- And so dosocial scientists and #olic" anal"sts, even with their more nuanced views- 6Wve triered this debate becauseconventional wisdom #uts too much em#hasis on resources as a cause o! conEict- ettin the stor" riht has biim#lications !or social scientists tr"in to unravel cause$and$e%ect and o!ten even larer im#lications !or #ublic#olic"- Michael lare is riht to underscore Saddam 1usseinWs invasion o! uwait, the onl" classic resource conEict inrecent memor"- That e#isode hihlihts two o! the reasons wh" classic resource wars are becomin rare&

the1>re e2!ensive and rarel1 work * (And even in uwaitWs case, man" other !orces also s#urredthe invasion- Notabl", 6ra= !elt insecure with its onl" access to the sea a narrow stri# o! land sandwiched between

uwait on one side and its archenem" 6ran on the other-. 6n the end, %addam lost resources on theorder o! [*)) billion(#lus his countr" and then his head. in his =uest !or uwaitWs *-P millionbarrels#er da" o! combined oil and as out#ut- B" contrast, /88on #aid [Y) billion to et MobilWs *- millionbarrels #er da" o! oil and as #roduction&a merer that has held and Eourished * #s the ulging

sovereign wealth funds are discovering. it is easier to get resourcesthrough the stock e2change than the gun arrel*

#lt cause Human intel fails for other reasons*

>)rien. F?$ Hresident and /O o! Artemis lobal 7oistics F Solutions, Gormer raduate esearchAssistant at the Jebsen enter !or ounter Terrorism esearch, Gormer 6nternational Trade S#ecialist !or the


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De#artment o! ommerce (James, Troan 1orses: 2sin urrent 2-S- 6ntellience esources To Success!ull"6n5ltrate 6slamic Terror rou#s', 6nternational A%airs eview Iol- *+ No- Gall ))P.T

Nevertheless, it is easier to reconi9e 12M6NT de5ciencies than to 58 th em- This is es#eciall"true when reconstitutin sectors s#read over several aencies that have been allowed to corrode - There is no=uic 58 in resolvin this de5cienc"-This realit" is reconi9ed b" both #olic" advisors and

#olic"$maers, who #ro#ose lon$term investmentsin intellience re!orm- A )) onressionalesearch Service re#ort e8em#li5es this mindset: 4hile 2-S- #olic"maers are em#hasi9in the need !or ra#idintellience overhaul to close the 12M6NT de5cit, the 2nited States is 5htin a 4ar on Terror with other countriesW

unreliable e"es- *+ ` 6nternational A%airs eview Girst is a renewed em#hasis on human aents-Sinals intellience and imaer" satellites have their uses in the counterterrorism mission, but intellience tocounter terrorism de#ends more onhuman intellience (12M6NT. such as s#ies and in!ormers- An"renewed em#hasis on human intellience necessaril" will involve a willinness toacce#t risso! com#licated and danerous missions, and liel" ties to disre#utable individuals who ma" be in#ositions to #rovide valuable in!ormation-Time and #atience will be needed to train anal"stsindi;cult sills and lanuaes-h 2n!ortunatel", the time and #atience' necessar" to develo#these o#eratives is not a lu8ur"the 2nited States can a%ord- The ** ommission e#ort describes thera#id nature and lac o! warnin that de5nes the current securit" environment: National securit" used to beconsidered b" stud"in !orein !rontiers, weihin o##osin rou#s o! states, and measurin industrial miht_-Threats emered slowl", o!ten visibl", as wea#ons were !ored, armies conscri#ted, and units trained and moved

into #lace_- Now threatscan emere =uicl"- An orani9ation lie al Uaeda, head=uartered in a countr"on the other side o! the earth, in a reion so #oor that electricit" or tele#hones were scarce, could nonethelessscheme to wield wea#ons o! un#recedented destructive #ower in the larest cities o! the 2nited States-i

Gurthermore, even i! the 2nited States succeeds in develo#inthe t"#es o! intellienceo#eratives with the sill sets desired !or an e%ective war aainst 6slamic e8tremists, theca#acit" to #enetrate these rou#s willliel" never be !ull" achieved- The #roblem is that6slamic terrorist rou#s are hihl" insulated !rom outside intrusion because o! their !amil"$based andor clan$based recruitment #olicies: /thnicall" based terrorist rou#srecruit newmembers #ersonall" nown to them, #eo#le whose bacrounds are nown and who o!ten have !amil"ties to the orani9ation- 6ntellience #enetrationo! orani9ations recruited this wa" is e8tremel"

di;cult-' /ven those orani9ations that do not recruit e8clusivel" throuh !amil"ties, such as al Uaeda, still em#lo" a severe level o! vettinthat #laces an o#erativeWs survival ineo#ard"- eional dialects, local cultural sensitivities and si8$derees$o!$se#aration' within small #o#ulations allwor aainst an o#erative attem#tin to secure a terrorist leaderWs trust- econi9in these di;culties, ich Troan

1orses ` *+0 ard Betts summari9es this o#erational realit": More and better s#ies will hel#, but noone should e8#ect breathrouhsi! we et them- 6t is close to im#ossible to #enetratesmall, disci#lined, alien orani9ationslie Osama bin 7adenWs al Uaeda, and es#eciall" hard to5nd reliable2-S- citi9enswho have even a remote chance o! tr"in-' Nevertheless, the intelliencecommunit" should #ursue 12M6NT re!orm that will develo# o#eratives with #enetration #otential, but accessinthe inner circleso! terror rou#s ma" tae "ears to materiali9e , or ma" even beim#ossible- Gor e8am#le, i! the o#erative is acce#tedb" a terror rou#, he ma" be isolated orremoved !rom the orani9ationWs hierarch", leavin the o#erative unin!ormedas to

what other rou#s within the same orani9ation are #lannin, includin the cell within which he ma" be o#eratin-lThere!ore, reconi9in the 2-S- 12M6NT de5cienc", the lenth" #rocess o! com#rehensivere!orm, the un#redictable nature o! terrorism as a constant imminent threat, and theinsulated structure o! terrorist rou#s, the 2nited States will need to em#lo" creativemethods to collect in!ormationwithout eo#ardi9in lon$term intellience re!orm- Bruce 1o%mansuests some new, \out$o!$the$bo8W thinin that would o be"ond sim#le bureaucratic 58es-'m One#ossibilit" is tain a bacdoor a##roach to #enetratin various !undamentalistterrorist orani9ations- SO72T6ON HOHOS/D: 4O 46T1 T1/ TOO7S 4/ 1AI/ The Bacdoor One


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bacdoor ri#e !or e8#loitation is the de#endence o! 6slamic e8tremists on illicit activities and services to !und, train,

andor !acilitate their o#erations-nThe Achilles heel' o! terror rou#s is their de#endence oncriminal or other interconnected terrorist rou#s to #rovidecertain servicesto them,s#eci5call" wea#ons and dru smulin-The 2nited States should e8#loit this de#endenceand hasthe ca#acit" to do The Achilles heel' o! terror rou#s is their de#endence on criminal or other interconnectedterrorist rou#s to #rovide certain services to them, s#eci5call" wea#ons and dru smulin- *++ ` 6nternational

A%airs eview so- This bacdoor should be envisioned ust as the name connotes: an alternative entrance that iseasier to snea into than the !ront door- 6n the world o! com#uter #rorammin, a bacdoor is an undocumentedwa" o! ainin access to a #roram, online service or an entire com#uter s"stem- The bacdoor is written b" the

#rorammer who creates the code !or the #roram- 6t is o!ten onl" nown b" the #rorammer- A bacdoor is a#otential securit" ris-'o 4hen hacers discover bacdoorsin so!tware #rorams, the"e8#loit them- The 2-S- intellience communit" should ado#t the hacersW a##roachLin5ltration aents should be looin !or similar t"#es o! alternative access routes -

No N%# overload #ccumulo tech solves*

Harris 4&5(Not Scott 1arris, because lare data sets do sometimes overwhelm him_ But Derric 1arris- Derricin a senior writer at iaom and has been a technolo" ournalist since ))0- 1e has been coverincloud com#utin, bi data and other emerin 6T trends !or iaom since ))- Derric also holds alaw deree !rom the 2niversit" o! Nevada, 7as Ieas- This evidence is also internall" =uotin AdamGuchs C a !ormer NSA em#lo"ee that was involved in so!tware desin- 2nder the covers o! the NSAWsbi data e%ort' C iaom $ Jun- , )*0 $ htt#s:iaom-com)*0))under$the$covers$o!$the$nsas$bi$data$e%ort.

The NSAWs data collection#ractices have much o! America & and certainl" the tech communit" & on ede, but sources

!amiliar with the aenc"Ws technolo" are sa"in the situation isn>t as ad as it seems-Res, theaenc" has a lot o! dataand can do some #ower!ul anal"sis, but, the arument oes, there are strict

limitsin #lace around how the aenc" can use it and who has access- 4hether thatWs oodenouh is still an o#en debate, but hereWs what we now about the technolo" thatWs under#innin all that data-Thetechnoloical linch#in to ever"thin the NSA is doin !rom a data$anal"sis

#ers#ectiveis #ccumulo & an o#en$source database the aenc" builtin order to store andanal"9e hue amounts o! data- Adam Guchs nows Accumulo well because he hel#ed build it durin a nine$"ear stint with the NSALheWs now co$!ounder and TO o! a com#an" called S=rrl that sells a commercial version o! the database s"stem- 6 s#oe with him

earlier this wee, da"s be!ore news broe o! the NSA collectin data !rom Ieri9on and the countr"Ws larest web com#anies-The

NSA egan uilding #ccumulo in late )), Guchs said, because the" were tr"in todo automated anal"sis !or tracinand discoverin new terrorism sus#ects-4e had a set o!a##lications that we wanted to develo# and we were looin !or the riht in!rastructure to build them on,' he said- The #roblem wasthose technoloies werenWt available- 1e lied what #roects lie 1Base were doin b" usin 1adoo# to mimic ooleWs !amousBiTable data store, but it still wasnWt u# to the NSA re=uirements around scalabilit", reliabilit" or securit"- So, the" bean wor on a

#roect called loudBase, which eventuall" was renamed #ccumulo* Now, Guchs said, 6tWs o#eratin atthousands$o!$nodes scale' withinthe NSAWs data centers-There are multi#le instances each storintens o! #etab"tes (* #etab"te e=uals *,))) terab"es or * million iab"tes. o! data and itWs the bacend o! the aenc"Ws most widel"

used anal"tical ca#abilities- AccumuloWs abilit" to handle datain a variet" o! !ormats (a characteristic calledschemaless' in database aron. means the NSA can store data!rom numerous sources all within the databaseand add new anal"tic ca#abilities in da"s or even hours-6tWs =uite critical,' he added- 4hat the NSA

can and canWt do with all this data As 6 e8#lained on Thursda", #ccumulo is es!eciall1 ade!t at


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anal1-ing trillions of data !oints in order to build massive ra#hs that can detect theconnections between them and the strenth o! the connections- Guchs didnWt tal about the si9e o! the NSAWs ra#h, but he did sa"

the database is desined to handlemonths or "ears worth o! in!ormationand let

anal1sts move from (uer1 to (uer1 ver1 fast* 4hen "ouWre talin about anal"9incall records, itWs eas" to see where this t"#e o! anal"sis would be valuable in determinin

how !ar a sus#ected terroristWs networ miht s#read and who miht be involved-

#$ e2aggerates N%# udget>s too small for untargeted mass

data collection

Harris 4&5

(Not Scott 1arris, because lare data sets do sometimes overwhelm him_ But Derric 1arris- Derricin a senior writer at iaom and has been a technolo" ournalist since ))0- 1e has been coverincloud com#utin, bi data and other emerin 6T trends !or iaom since ))- Derric also holds alaw deree !rom the 2niversit" o! Nevada, 7as Ieas- This evidence is also internall" =uotin Adam

Guchs C a !ormer NSA em#lo"ee that was involved in so!tware desin- 2nder the covers o! the NSAWsbi data e%ort' C iaom $ Jun- , )*0 $ htt#s:iaom-com)*0))under$the$covers$o!$the$nsas$bi$data$e%ort.

4eWre not =uite sure how much data the two #rorams that came to liht this wee are actuall"

collectin, but the evidence suggests it>s not that much & at least

from a volume !ers!ective* Tae the H6SM #roram thatWs atherin data !rom web #ro#erties

includin oole, Gaceboo, Microso!t, A##le, Rahoo and AO7- It seems the N%# would have to

e selective in what it rabs- Assumin it includes ever" cost associated with runnin the #roram, the [)million #er "ear allocated to H6SM, accordin to the slides #ublished b" the 4ashinton Host, wouldnWt benearl" enouh to store allthe raw data& much less new datasets created !rom

anal"ses& !rom such lare web #ro#erties- Rahoo alone, 6Wm told, was s#endin over[*)) million a "ear to o#erate itsa##ro8imatel" +,)))$node 1adoo# environment, consistin o! hundreds o!#etab"tes,a !ew "ears ao- Gaceboo users are eneratin more than P)) terab"tes o!new data ever" da"- 2sin about the least$e8#ensive o#tionaround !or mass storae&cloud storae #rovider Bacbla9eWs o#en source storae #od desins & ust storin P)) terab"tes o! Gaceboo data a da" wouldcost more than [*) million in hardware alone over the course o! a "ear-2sin hiher$#er!ormance hard drives or other #remium ear & thins Bacbla9e eschews because itWs concerned #rimaril" about cost andscalabilit" rather than #er!ormance & would cost even more- /ven at the Bacbla9e #rice #oint, thouh, which is #ocet chane !or

the NSA, the aenc" would easil" run over [) million tr"in to store too man" emails, chats, S"#e calls, #hotos, videos andother t"#es data!rom the other com#anies itWs worin with-

)ig Data can handle it*


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De#t at the Naval Hostraduate School C 6NGOMAT6ON S/26TR ONS6D/AT6ONS GOAHH76AT6ONS 2S6N AHA1/ A2M27O' $ Se#tember )*+ $htt#:calhoun-n#s-edubitstreamhandle*)+P+0Y)*+Se#HontiusBrandon-#d!>se=uenceZ*

eneration o! actionable intellience !rom lare data sets re=uires e;cient anal"sis- Manual anal"sis o! lare data

sets to develo# these insihts is unsustainabl" resource intensive- 6n Januar" )*+, the de#ut" director o! theDe!ense 6ntellience Aenc" noted, 4eWre looin !or needles within ha"stacs while tr"in to de5ne what the

needle is, in an era o! declinin resources and increasin threats' ?@- Bi data #lat!orms have thestorae and anal"tical ca#abilities necessar" to handle lare data sets- Thesesolutions can relieve the #rocessin burden on human anal"sts and allow them tos#end more time eneratin real intellience ?P@- Bi data anal"tics maein!ormation more usable, im#rove decision main, and lead to more !ocusedmissionsand services- Gor instance, eora#hicall" se#arated teams can access a real$time common o#eratin#icture, dianostic data minin can su##ort #roactive maintenance #rorams that#revent battle5eld !ailures, and data can be trans!ormed into a common structure that allows custom=ueries b" a distributed !orce com#osed o! man" communities ?+@, ?@-


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L2tensions Data overload Q Wrong

8 Data mining matters and em!iricall1 works

%chmitt et al. &5

(/ric Schmit, Hulit9er Hri9es, 1arvard 2niversit"Ws /8ecutive Hroram on National and6nternational Securit" in **- Mr- Schmitt com#leted a niht Journalism Gellowshi# at

Stan!ord 2niversit", David /- Saner, harlie Savae, received a Hulit9er Hri9e !orNational e#ortin in )) !or his coverae o! #residential sinin statements !or the lobe-Other awards he earned while at the lobe include the American Bar AssociationWs Silver

avel Award and the erald - Gord Hri9e !or Distinuished e#ortin on the Hresidenc",

Administration Sa"s Mining of Data is Crucial to Bight Terror ',htt#:www-n"times-com)*0))Yusminin$o!$data$is$called$crucial$to$5ht$terror-html, June Y, )*0, a-.

4AS16NTON & 6nearl" Se#tember )), an e$mail #assed throuh an 6nternet address inHeshawar, Haistan, that was bein monitored b" the vast com#uters controlled b"American intellience anal"sts- 6t set o% alarms -The address, lined to senior Uaedao#eratives, had been dormant !or months- 6nvestiators wored their wa" bacward and traced thee$mail to an address in Aurora, olo-, outside Denver- 6t too them to Naibullah Xa9i, a +$"ear$old !ormer co%eecart o#erator, who was asin a Uaeda !acilitator about how to mi8 inredients !or a Eour$based e8#losive,

accordin to law en!orcement o;cials- A later e$mail read: The marriae is read"' & codethat a maor attac was #lanned- 4hat !ollowed in the ne8t !ew da"s was a cross$countr" #ursuit inwhich the #olice sto##ed Mr- Xa9i on the eore 4ashinton Bride, let him o, and a!ter several !alse starts,arrested him in New Ror- 1e eventuall" #leaded uilt" to #lottin to carr" out bac#ac bombins in the cit"Wssubwa" s"stem- 6t is that ind o! success that Hresident Obama seemed to be re!errin to on Grida" in ali!orniawhen he de!ended the National Securit" Aenc"Ws stoc#ilin o! tele#hone call los o! Americans and aininaccess to !oreinersW e$mail and other data !rom Microso!t, oole, Rahoo and other com#anies- 1e arued that

modest encroachments on #rivac"' & includin ee#in records o! #hone numberscalled and the lenth o! calls that can be used to trac terrorists, thouh notlistenin in to calls& were worth us doin' to #rotect the countr"- The #rorams, he said,were authori9ed b" onress and reularl" reviewed b" !ederal courts- But #rivac" advocates =uestioned the#ortra"al o! the #roramWs intrusion on AmericansW communications as modest- 4hen Americans communicate witha tareted #erson overseas, the #roram can vacuum u# and store !or later searchin & without a warrant & theircalls and e$mails, too- Mr- Obama acnowleded that he had hesitations when he inherited the #roram !rom

eore 4- Bush, but told re#orters that he soon became convinced o! its necessit"- Rou canWt have *))#ercent securit" and also then have *)) #ercent #rivac" and 9ero inconvenience ,' hesaid- 4eWre oin to have to mae some choices as a societ"-' To de!enders o! the N-S-A-, the Xa9i case

underscores how the aenc"Ws 6nternet surveillance s"stem, called Hrism, which was set u# over the #ast decadeto collect data !rom online #roviders o! e$mail and chat services, has "ielded concrete results- 4ewere able to lean critical in!ormation,' said a senior intellience o;cial, who s#oe on the condition

o! anon"mit"- 6t was throuh an e$mail corres#ondence that we had access to onl"throuh Hrism-' John Miller, a !ormer senior intellience o;cial who now wors !or BS News, said on BSThis Mornin,' ThatWs how a #roram lie this is su##osed to wor-' Ieterans o! the Obama intellience aencies

sa" the lare collections o! diital data are vital in the search !or terrorists- 6! "ouWrelooin !or a needle in the ha"stac, "ou need a ha"stac ,' Jerem" Bash, chie! o! sta%to7eon /- Hanetta, the !ormer -6-A- director and de!ense secretar", said on MSNB on Grida"-
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/08/us/mining-of-data-is-called-crucial-to-fight-terror.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/08/us/mining-of-data-is-called-crucial-to-fight-terror.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/08/us/mining-of-data-is-called-crucial-to-fight-terror.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/08/us/mining-of-data-is-called-crucial-to-fight-terror.html


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8 Hindsight and foresight ensures terrorists don>t sli!

through the cracks

Hines. &5

(Hierre 1ines is a de!ense council member o! the Truman National Securit" Hroect,

1ereWs how metadata on billions o! #hone calls #redicts terrorist attacs',htt#:=9-comP*heres$how$metadata$on$billions$o!$#hone$calls$#redicts$terrorist$attacs, June *, )*0, a-.

Resterda", when NSA Directoreneral eith Ale8andertesti5edbe!ore the 1ouse ommittee on6ntellience, he declared that the NSAWs surveillance #rorams have #rovided critical leadsto hel# #revent over P) #otential terrorist events-' GB6 De#ut" Director Sean Bo"ce elaborated b"describin !our instances when the NSAWs surveillance #rorams have had an im#act: (*. when an interce#ted email!rom a terrorist in Haistan led to !oilin a #lan to bomb o! the New Ror subwa" s"stemL (. when NSAWs #roramshel#ed #revent a #lot to bomb the New Ror Stoc /8chaneL (0. when intellience led to the arrest o! a 2-S- citi9enwho #lanned to bomb the Danish News#a#er o;ce that #ublished cartoon de#ictions o! the Hro#het MuhammadLand (+. when the NSAWs #rorams triered reo#enin the ** investiation- So what are the #ractical a##licationso! internet and #hone records athered !rom two NSA #rorams> And how can metadata' actuall" #revent terroristattacs> Metadata does not ive the NSA and intellience communit" access to the content o! internet and #hone

communications- 6nstead, metadata is more lie the transactional in!ormation cell #hone customers would normall"see on their billin statements&metadata can indicate when a call, email, or online chat bean and how lon thecommunication lasted- Section *P o! the Hatriot Act #rovides the leal authorit" to obtain business records' !rom#hone com#anies- Meanwhile, the NSA uses Section ) o! the Gorein 6ntellience Surveillance Act to authori9e its

H6SM #roram- Accordin the 5ures #rovided b" en- Ale8ander, intellience athered based onSection ) authorit" contributed in over )K o! the P) cases - One o! maor

bene5ts o! metadata is that it !rovides hindsight&itives intellienceanal"sts a retros#ective view o! a se=uence o! events- As De#ut" Director Bo"ce discussed, theabilit" to anal"9e #revious communications allowed the GB6 to reo#en the **investiation and determine who was lined to that attac - 6t is im#ortant to reconi9e thatterrorist attacs are not orchestrated overniht L the" tae months or "ears to #lan-There!ore, i! the intellience communit" onl" catches wind o! an attac hal!wa" intotheterroristsW #lannin c"cle, oreven a!ter a terrorist attac has taen #lace, metadatamiht be the onl" source o! in!ormation that ca#tures the se=uence o! eventsleadin u# to an attac- Once a terrorist sus#ect has been identi5ed oronce an attachas taen #lace,intellience anal"sts can use #ower!ul so!tware to si!t throuhmetadata to determine which numbers, 6H addresses, or individuals are associated with the sus#ect- Moreover, #hone numbers and 6H addresses sometimes serve as a #ro8" !or the eneral location

o! where the #lannin has taen #lace-This abilit" to narrow down the location o! terrorists canhel# determine whether the intellience communit" is dealin with a domestic or

international threat- /ven more use!ulthan hindsiht is a cr1stal all that gives

the intelligence communit1 a look into the future - Sim#l" nowin

how man" individuals are in a chat room, how man" individuals have contacted a#articular #hone user, or how man" individuals are on an email chain could serve asan indicator o! how man" terrorists are involvedin a #lot- Gurthermore, nowin when asus#ect communicates can hel# identi!" his #atterns o! behavior - Gor instance,metadata can hel# establish whether a sus#ect communicates s#oradicall" or on aset #attern(e--, main a call ever" Saturda" at #-m-.- An" deviation!rom that #attern couldindicate that the #lan chanedat a certain #ointL an" #hone number or email addressused consistentl" and then not at all could indicate that a sus#ect has sto##ed
http://qz.com/95719/heres-how-metadata-on-billions-of-phone-calls-predicts-terrorist-attacks/http://qz.com/95719/heres-how-metadata-on-billions-of-phone-calls-predicts-terrorist-attacks/http://qz.com/95719/heres-how-metadata-on-billions-of-phone-calls-predicts-terrorist-attacks/http://qz.com/95719/heres-how-metadata-on-billions-of-phone-calls-predicts-terrorist-attacks/


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communicatin with an associate- Additionall", a ra#id increase in communication couldindicate that an attac is about to ha##en- Metadata can #rovide all o! thisin!ormation without ever e8#osin the content o! a #hone call or email - 6!themetadata reveals the sus#ect is enaed in terrorist activities, then obtainin awarrant would allow intellience o;cials to actuall" monitor the content o! the sus#ectWs

communication- 6n en- Ale8anderWs words, These #rorams have #rotected our countr"andallies - - - ?t@hese #rorams have been a##roved b" the administration, onress, andthe courts-'

8 #ggregated data historical records ke1 to eKcienc1 and

!recision

Watkins et al. 5

(- - 4atins, - M- e"nolds, - G- DeMara, M- eorio#oulos, A- J- on9ale9, and -/alin, TA6N D6TR HO//DS: /QH7O6N DATA M6N6N T/1NO7O6/S AS

TOO7S TO 6NI/ST6AT/ MON/R 7A2ND/6N', Holice Hractice and esearch, An6nternational Journal,htt#:www-eecs-uc!-edueorio#oulossitesde!ault5les*-#d!, June *, ))0, a-.

The most basic a##roach to data minin, a linear r