Commercial Aviation Safety Team Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)(CAST)

OverviewOverview

NARAST Steering Committee MeetingNARAST Steering Committee MeetingBeijing, ChinaBeijing, China

November 2003November 2003

Kyle L. OlsenKyle L. OlsenFederal Aviation Administration Federal Aviation Administration

HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &

MAINTENANCE

Carry-on Baggage

Child Restraint

Passenger Interference

CABIN SAFETY

IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS

GENERAL AVIATION

Loss of Control

Weather

Survivability

Aeronautical Decisionmaking

Controlled Flight

Into Terrain Approach and Landing

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Loss of Control

Weather

Uncontained Engine Failures

Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use

Runway Incursions

Safer SkiesSafer Skies

Turbulence

Industry

Commercial Aviation Commercial Aviation Safety TeamSafety Team

(CAST)(CAST)

Government

*Representing GE and RR

DODFAA

• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic Operations• Research

NASAICAOJAATCCNATCA

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATANACABoeingP&W*RAAFSFIATAAAPAATACAPFA

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

• Safety enhancement development

• Master safety plan • Enhancement

effectiveness• Future areas of study

CASTCAST• Data analyses

Joint Safety Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)Analysis Teams (JSAT)

Joint Safety Joint Safety Implementation Implementation

Teams (JSIT)Teams (JSIT)

Joint Implementation Joint Implementation Measurement Data Measurement Data

Analysis Team (JIMDAT)Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

Integrated Strategic Safety PlanIntegrated Strategic Safety Plan Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic

Safety Plan Developed 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

46 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships - 22 complete/24 committed and underway

Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based enhancements with transition to design change enhancements long term

Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007 (75% by 2020) Foundation for U.S-supported continuous improvements

in worldwide aviation safety

Resource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction

APPROVED PLAN

Completed + Plan (2007

Implementation Level)

Completed + Plan (2020

Implementation Level)

All JSIT Proposed Enhancements

(2020 Implementation

Level)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Re

so

urc

e C

os

t ($

Mil

lio

ns

)

Risk Reduction

Total Cost in $ (Millions)

2007 2020

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Ris

k E

lim

ina

ted

by

Sa

fety

En

ha

nc

em

en

ts

Completed

CAST-050

Safety Plan BenefitsSafety Plan Benefits

Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in approximately $620 million annual savings to the industry Current accident cost per flight is approximately

$76 cycle Implementation of the 46 selected safety

enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight cycle

Safety is morally required and is also good for business

Do

llars

/Flt

. Cy

c

Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents

100

80

60

40

20

0

Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle

73% Risk reduction

Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle

Or

~ $620 Million Dollars/Year

Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels

2002 2007

Cost SavingsCost Savings

Hull Loss & Fatal AccidentsPortion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan

(2007 Implementation Values)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Tota

l

LOC

Flt

CFI

TFi

re/E

xplo

sion

Run

way

Col

lisio

n

LOC

GN

D

Mid

air

Cre

w In

c

Eng

-UC

EF

Sys

-Com

p

Turb

ulen

ce

Eva

c

Po

rtio

n o

f R

isk

Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining

CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Database – Security events excluded

All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents

Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide(2007 Implementation Values)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Por

tion

of R

isk

Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining

Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

QuestionsQuestions