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Human Behavior Nearby an Explosion
Philip Tannor (CPT.) IDF Ground Forces
Background
• Predicting an enemy’s behavior after a nearby explosion could be useful for:– Planning complex operations– Outlining operational requirements by certain
weapon systems – Developing drills for military units
• In many cases the “interesting” question is how long it takes to escape from a room.
Objectives
• Estimating the amount of time required to escape a room after an explosion in another room in the building.
• Improving general understanding of people’s behavior after a nearby explosion.
• Emphasis: “worst-case” scenario (quick escape), military or guerrilla organization personnel.
Illustration
Method
• The research is based on analyzing videos from the internet, in which people are seen reacting to explosions in their vicinity.
• Most videos:– Urban environment– Captured via security cameras
• If several people are seen in the same video, each person is analyzed individually.
• Sample size: 25 cases (from 10 videos)
Demarcation & Assumptions
• Urban area only• Military or guerrilla organization personnel only• Explosion occurs in another room in the
building• Fairly small explosion (for minimizing civilian
casualties)• Person of interest is not ready for the explosion
Demarcation & Assumptions
• We did not take into account cases of selfless or inefficient stalling, since:– The main goal is to estimate the minimal time of
escaping.– Stalling of this sort is difficult to generalize.
Example of a Video
Findings
Preliminary Analysis
Why Can’t we Stop Here?
• Sample size is limited (25 cases)• Military/guerrilla personnel vs. civilians:
– Differences in ages & gender– Combat training
• Therefore, to conclude the minimal “escape time”, a more detailed analysis is necessary
Detailed Analysis: The Phases
Explosion
Detailed Analysis: Gantt Charts
These were the different observed Patterns:
Recovering from primary shock
Running to a nearby exit
Assuming a defensive position
Stalling
Staying in a defensive position
Time
Recovering from primary shock
Recovering from primary shock
A
B
C
Running to a nearby exit
Running to a nearby exit
A
B
C - Stall & Escape (not considered in analysis)
- Defend & Escape
- Duration strongly depends on the intensity of the shock
- Quick Escape
Detailed Analysis: Total Time (Separated by Cases)
• We addressed four cases: – Quick Escape/Defend & Escape; – With/without a significant physical shock
• The results:
Without a significant physical shock
With a significant physical shock
Escape immediately after explosion
Very quickly Quickly
Escape after assuming defensive position
Quickly After a while
Using the Results for Practical Problems
Defining a “Moderate-Severe” Scenario
• In some cases, predicting the most-severe scenario is important.
• A “moderate-severe” scenario is useful for cases in which otherwise the solution is “too expensive”.
• We used 2 methods to estimate a “moderate-severe” escape time:– Manipulating the figures in the Gantt charts, simulating
having slowed down for one of the phases– Using the 10th percentile from the preliminary findings
(categorized by if physical shock was significant or not)
Final Results
• Dividing into different columns allows matching values with their corresponding tactical use.
Without a significant physical shock
With a significant physical shock
“Most-severe” scenario
Very quickly Quickly
“Moderate-severe” scenario
Quickly After a while
Summary and Conclusions
Summary & Conclusions
• Results are valid only for the first person to leave the room
• Reminder: research focused on the severe cases. In some cases people may stay around for much longer.
• The single “most-severe” value should only be used when clearly necessary. The case will actually occur only if all of the following conditions apply:– No significant physical shock.– No defense or stalling.– No slowing down at any point until leaving the room.
Summary & Conclusions
• Estimating values the values for the “moderate-severe” scenario as well as the “most-severe” scenario has proven to be important.
• Analyzing internet videos as high resolution data may be a useful method for other researches as well.
Questions?