Hull Area Strategic Study 2019 - Network Rail

What is required to accommodate future train services in the Hull Area to support economic growth to 2043?Continuous Modular Strategic PlanningOctober 2019

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Hull Area Strategic Question October 2019

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01: Foreword

02: Executive Summary

03: Continuous Modular Strategic Planning in the Hull Area

04: Hull Area Strategic Context

05: Delivering Long Term Growth

06: Accommodating Future Services

07: Recommendations and Next Steps

08: Glossary

Contents

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Hull Area Strategic QuestionOctober 2019

The Hull Area Continuous Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) study forms part of the railway industry’s Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) covering the region in the medium to long term planning horizon.

The railway is an integral part of the Hull, East Riding and North Yorkshire geography connecting people to places and delivering goods to markets. Rail provides a competitive, efficient and reliable journey offer whether it be between the cities of the North of England, providing local connections between towns and villages, or facilitating freight to Yorkshire’s European Gateway. In an environment with increasing demand for mobility, it is vital that rail adapts to changing demands to provide an attractive and accessible network to support economic, social and environmental objectives. Today the railway network as a whole is more intensively used than at any other point in history, as more people travel it is vital that high levels of performance are attained to deliver a railway that works for the nation.

Over the coming years significant investment will lead to a transformation in services in the Hull Area as Northern, Transpennine Express, LNER and Hull Trains deliver more services and seating capacity, further complemented by the Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU). It is against this backdrop that the Hull Area Strategic Question analyses future growth from 2026 to 2033 and 2043.

Close working relationships with local stakeholders and Transport for the North (TfN), the region’s Sub National Transport Body, has identified the strategic gaps from their Long Term Rail Strategy and interfaces with Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) on the conventional railway in the Hull Area that are necessary to meet pan-northern objectives.

A holistic approach to assessing the needs of the railway in the Hull Area to cater for growth and connectivity has included a mixture of service-based and infrastructure options that put the passenger and freight users first. Network Rail has worked collaboratively across the industry with partners and stakeholders to provide a choice for funders on future options to deliver a safe, reliable and efficient railway to drive economic growth in the Hull Area to support a versatile and competitive North of England.

1 Foreword


2 Executive Summary

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The Hull Area Strategic Question examines future passenger and freight growth across Hull, East Yorkshire and North Yorkshire covering Scarborough, Brough, Goole and to the east of Selby for 2026, 2033 and 2043 under a range of demand growth scenarios. The study forms part of Network Rail’s Continuous Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) approach to the Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) to meet the needs of the industry in an agile, focused and accessible way. The overarching Strategic Question is supported by five sub questions which have been developed collaboratively with stakeholders and industry partners to provide a directed and clear approach to strategic planning in the Hull Area. The study has examined a series of demand forecast scenarios from the Department for Transport, Network Rail System Operator and Transport for the North (TfN) covering the medium to long term. A starting point baseline of 2026 has been used to cover the envisaged service outputs arising from the Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU). Demand has then been forecast out to 2033 and 2043 aligning to key investment decisions such as High Speed 2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) to understand the required service specifications to facilitate economic growth.

The train service specification developed to accommodate future passenger and freight growth in the Hull Area has been tested on the existing rail network to identify constraints and propose railway investment choices to address these concerns. Key areas identified by this study are the station throat and platform capacity at Hull, both of which are heavily utilised in the future train service specification both in terms of quantum and increased need for reversing moves due to service structure. Increased platform capacity, crossings and additional track could facilitate additional capacity at Hull Station enabling parallel moves between the Brough and Beverley corridor to support future train services. Growing passenger demand also puts pressure on pedestrian capacity at Hull Station both in terms of platform clearance and access to the concourse with options to reduce congestion including removal of existing platform furniture and considering how services are platformed.

Key areas of economic growth have been identified on the Beverley to Hull corridor across all scenarios with a number of options including both train lengthening and additional services considered. To accommodate this increasing demand, improving flexibility at Beverley Station through additional crossing capability, turnback opportunities and understanding the opportunity for service extensions should be examined. A key challenge going forward for the Hull Area will be accommodating the number of train services on the Brough corridor. The mixture of speeds and stopping patterns on a predominantly two track railway between Hessle Road Junction and Gilberdyke Junction has the potential to affect performance and journey times as capacity is restricted by the service structure.

The Strategic Transport Plan developed by Transport for the North (TfN) to set the region’s transport priorities and unlock an additional £100 billion in economic growth identifies rail as a key component in delivering the vision. To deliver the vision, TfN have developed a Long Term Rail Strategy (LTRS) to improve connectivity and productivity to enable economic growth across the North of England. Within the Hull Area, TfN’s Desirable Minimum Standards for two passenger trains per hour on each route in the North would see an additional service between Hull and York and Hull and Scarborough. As part of the collaborative approach of CMSP, a sensitivity of these additional services above the baseline train service specification was tested to provide investment choices for funders. Under this sensitivity, the previously identified constraints become more acute and the single track section between Bridlington and Hunmanby is unable to accommodate two trains per hour, necessitating a double track solution on the most optimal section between Bridlington and Bempton.

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Transport for the North’s major rail programme of Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) has been considered in this study. Close partnership working across the railway geography and comparison of CMSP and the emerging outputs for NPR has allowed a single narrative on the strategic priorities for the railway in the Hull Area to be developed. This has demonstrated that the proposed quantum of train services to meet long term planning growth and NPR service aspirations are the same. However, wider network operational considerations are being examined by Transport for the North separately within their programme to ensure consistency for a high performing and reliable network.

High level engineering feasibility has assessed the deliverability of identified interventions and produced indicative order of magnitude costings to produce a set of railway investment choices for funders. This paves the way for options to be further developed to a Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) in line with the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline process to mature the potential interventions to deliver the right outcomes for the railway in the Hull Area.

The recommendations in this study have been developed by a number of stakeholders in line with findings from the National Rail Passenger Survey (NRPS) to deliver a coherent and collective view on what is required to deliver future passenger and freight services in the Hull Area to support economic growth to 2043. As rail industry long term strategic planning evolves, it is important that future studies take into account the work undertaken to ensure a consistent and robust plan for the future network that puts passengers and freight users first.


3 Continuous Modular Strategic Planning in the Hull Area

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As part of Network Rail’s Long Term Planning Process (LTPP)1 Continuous Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) provides the rail industry with an impartial evidenced based view of the rail network for the medium to long term planning horizon.

CMSP provides an agile, responsive and focused view on the strategic priorities of the network that meets the needs of customers and funders by identifying the future capacity needs and opportunities for rail investment to stimulate economic growth. As a collaborative approach to strategic planning, service specifiers; train operators; local and sub-national transport bodies; local enterprise partnerships and other functions of Network Rail work holistically to develop investment choices to accommodate future economic growth.

As the railway becomes increasingly busy, making the best use of train, track and station capacity is a key challenge for the industry as a whole. It is therefore important to understand how service patterns, journey times and levels of operational performance all impact on the capacity of the rail network to deliver an efficient, competitive and reliable railway. The coordinating role of the System Operator balances these requirements and the different outputs that the network can deliver to provide options for how capacity can be increased in an affordable and value for money way.

1 https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/long-term-planning

In an environment in which land-use, transport and economic development are increasingly devolved to local decision makers, Network Rail has developed the CMSP process to work closely with stakeholders identifying the priorities for the rail network through a strategic question approach both at a local and national level.

In the Hull Area, the railway network will see a significant improvement to the rail offer over the coming years as Northern, Transpennine Express, LNER and Hull Trains deliver more services and seating capacity further complemented by the Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU). Increasing demand for passenger and freight services across Hull and the North of England coupled to the transformational growth agenda of Transport for the North both through their Long Term Rail Strategy (LTRS) and Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) programme have prioritised the Hull Area as a focus for strategic planning over the medium to long term.

To deliver an inclusive and holistic rail strategy for the Hull Area, an effective governance structure was developed. A high level of autonomy was provided to the Working Group to contribute, review and provide endorsement and incorporated service specifiers, train operators, local authorities and local enterprise partnerships. An additional layer of oversight was provided through the CMSP Governance Group with members including the Rail Delivery Group, Sub-National Transport Bodies and other functions of Network Rail to endorse the work undertaken by the Working Group. National governance was provided through the System Long Term Governance Group to ensure consistency across the industry for a comprehensive and credible strategy for the future growth in the Hull Area.

1 https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/long-term-planning

Journey TimeBoth absolute andcombinations of

journey times a�ectnetwork capacity and

performance

CapacityGreater use of thenetwork typically puts pressure onperformance and

can impact journey times

PerformancePunctuality andreliability can improveby running fewer services with more space betweenthem

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The governance structure is set out as follows:System Long Term Governance GroupProviding national oversight and ensures consistency across Strategic PlanningCMSP Governance GroupApproval of remit and outputs - representation of Train and Freight Operators, Rail Delivery Group, Department for Transport, Transport for the North and other Network Rail FunctionsHull Area Working GroupDevelop, review and endorse remit and undertake technical work – Train and Freight Operators, Hull City Council, East Riding of Yorkshire Council, North Yorkshire County Council, Humber Local Enterprise Partnership, Department for Transport, Transport for the North, Network Rail

Future passenger and freight growth in the Hull Area was prioritised by stakeholders to cover three time periods up to 2043 as follows:

To ensure a clear approach for the study, the following remit was agreed by the industry to deliver a set of railway investment choices:

A set of investment choices, which offer value for money, are required for funders that can accommodate future passenger growth in the short, medium and long term for the Hull area under different demand growth scenarios. The investment choices identified should also include options for accommodating Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) and additional freight growth identified by the North of England Freight Strategic Question alongside the Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) conditional outputs. It should be noted that due to the distinct and separate railway geography of the Barton-on-Humber Line it is not included within the remit of this strategic question.

In line with the Strategic Question approach for CMSP, an overarching principal question was established to encompass the problem statement by stakeholders as follows:

What is required to accommodate future train services in the Hull Area to support economic growth to 2043?

A further sub-set of questions were identified by the Working Group to answer the overall Strategic Question as follows:

• What are the interventions to improve the Yorkshire Coast Line Corridor comprising of Capacity, Connectivity and Journey Times?

• What are the interventions to improve the Selby Line Corridor comprising of Capacity, Connectivity and Journey Times?

• How can the Hull Station Area accommodate forecast passenger growth?

• How can freight be accommodated alongside future passenger services in the Hull Area?

• How could Northern Powerhouse Rail aspirations be accommodated alongside other services in the Hull Area?

2026Outputs from the

Transpennine RouteUpgrade

2033Completion ofHigh Speed 2

2043Delivery of Northern

Powerhouse Rail network


4 Hull Area Strategic Context

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The railways of East Yorkshire link Hull with Beverley, Bridlington and Scarborough in the north and to Brough, Selby and Goole in the west. Significant freight facilities are provided by the aggregate terminal at Dairycoates, accessed by Hessle East Junction, and the Hull Dock Line connecting into the key import and export markets at the Port of Hull through Hessle Road Junction. Hull is also home to the Botanic Gardens Rolling Stock Depot accessed from the Scarborough lines at West Parade Junction adjacent to Hull Station. A schematic diagram of the geographic remit of the Hull Area is shown in Figure 1.

4.01 Existing Train Services4.01.01 Passenger

Passenger services in the Hull Area are predominantly split between cross-Hull services from South Yorkshire to the Yorkshire Coast and services terminating at Hull from Selby and the west. The through Hull services provide an important link between North and East Yorkshire to the East Coast Main Line at Doncaster for onward connections. Services terminating at Hull provide linkages to Manchester, Leeds, York and London King’s Cross. All services are principally provided on an hourly frequency providing a competitive service offer from Hull with the exception of services to London King’s Cross which are provided on a two hourly frequency. Further interchange between transport modes is provided at Hull Paragon Interchange with bus services linking the wider areas of the region into the rail network. 4.01.02 Freight

Freight is an important part of the wider Hull economy with rail connected terminals for both aggregate flows from North Yorkshire and facilities for importing and exporting goods at Hull Docks. Freight services do not typically operate on the Yorkshire Coast Line or interact with Hull Paragon Station itself, utilising the Selby Line corridor to the west of Hull to access Hull Dairycoates at Hessle East Junction and Hull Docks at Hessle Road Junction. Freight flows are accommodated alongside the passenger services as a mixed traffic railway with W8 Gauge Clearance provided from Hessle Road Junction to Goole and Selby.

4.02 Future Train Services4.02.01 Transpennine Route Upgrade

The Transpennine Route Upgrade is a major programme to increase capacity and deliver a high performing and reliable railway on the core Manchester to Leeds and York route. As part of the emerging outputs, an additional semi-fast Manchester Piccadilly to Hull service is envisaged calling at Selby, Howden, Brough and Hull in the remitted geography. The nominal completion date in the mid to late 2020s for the TRU programme therefore provides a credible baseline for forecasting future growth out to 2043. The Indicative Train Service Specification (ITSS) for 2026 has been determined by the industry based on the future service structure arising from the North of England franchise awards and the service outcomes from TRU in the Hull Area.4.02.02 Transport for the North Long Term Rail Strategy Connectivity

Transport for the North published their Strategic Transport Plan in January 2019 setting the vision to 2050 on transport priorities required to drive inclusive and sustainable economic growth across the North. A key element of the delivery of this vision is a high-quality railway network to improve productivity and enable economic growth through a set of desirable minimum standards as part of their Long Term Rail Strategy (LTRS). The step-change in connectivity, encompassing frequency and journey time set out in the LTRS, forms part of each geographic route corridor sub question alongside the capacity requirements to meet future passenger growth. Working in partnership with TfN, the gaps from the Desirable Minimum Standards relating to connectivity were identified, this highlighted the need for an additional service between Hull and York and also an extension of the existing Bridlington service to Scarborough to facilitate two trains per hour between Scarborough and Hull.

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Cottingham

Hessle

Hull ParagonInterchange

DairycoatesAggregate Terminal

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Botanic Gardens Depot

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Seamer

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Figure 1: Geographic scope of study


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4.03 Baseline Service SpecificationThe service structure in the Hull Area arising from the North of England franchise awards and the emerging TRU outputs for an additional Transpennine service between Manchester and Hull form the indicative baseline for 2026. An extension of the Hull to London King’s Cross service to Beverley has been included as a sensitivity on this baseline to incorporate stakeholder aspirations.

An additional ‘TfN Connectivity’ baseline scenario, taking into account TfN’s Long Term Rail Strategy, builds on the above service structure with an additional Hull to York service and an extension from Bridlington to Scarborough on an existing Yorkshire Coast Line service. Rolling stock assumptions for each scenario have been developed through industry collaboration based on existing and planned formations to provide a representative baseline. In all scenarios an hourly freight path has been provided between Hull Docks and Goole.

Figure 2: Visualisation of 2026 Service Baseline and added Scenario Sensitivities

Scarborough

Bridlington

Beverley-Hull Sensitivity

TfN Long Term Rail Strategy Connectivity

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5 Delivering Long Term GrowthThe rail network plays a key role in driving economic growth across the country connecting millions of people to jobs and delivering goods to markets.

5.01 Defining future growth scenarios The competitive journey times and frequencies across the network enable businesses to connect and unlock the benefits of agglomeration whilst also increasing labour market catchments. A high-quality railway network likewise encourages modal shift, reducing road congestion, carbon emissions and improving air quality. Planning the strategic direction of the railway, with the challenges and opportunities this entails over the medium to long term is therefore vital to delivering a versatile and growing economy.

To inform the long term strategic plan for the railway in the Hull Area an assessment of future rail growth on the corridors into Hull has been undertaken. Existing levels of demand have been examined with exogenous background growth and the endogenous effects of timetable change up to 2026 applied to build up the demand forecasts. Following strong stakeholder input, a range of economic forecasts from the Department for Transport, Network Rail System Operator and Transport for the North have been modelled to provide a comprehensive view of rail demand for 2026, 2033 and 2043. In line with industry agreed forecasting, the latest economic outlook on population, housing and job growth has been included with further assessment of the Local Plan for each Local Authority to inform the development of options to address capacity gaps.

The analysis focuses on the Morning Peak (0800-0859) arrivals into Hull Station covering the busiest sustained period of demand in the Hull Area to identify gaps in the provided passenger capacity. Passenger capacity is aggregated and averaged across all services on the corridor to indicate areas where sufficient capacity is not provided, this enables the development of potential capacity solutions for the medium to long term on a corridor level, rather than focusing on the existing issues on a service-by-service basis.

Seasonal demand from the leisure market in the Hull Area, which is managed locally by train operators based on specific events and availability of stock and train crew, will naturally benefit from the options developed as part of the capacity gap analysis as will off-peak passengers at less busy times of the day.

The passenger demand forecasts for the next 25 years in the Hull Area are provided in Figure 3 and show the variance between the growth models. It should be noted that whilst the impact of Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) has not been explicitly examined as part of this study, the Transport for the North (TfN) transformational growth scenario captures ‘a broad estimate of the potential scale and nature of impacts arising from connectivity improvements’, arguably achieved through large scale interventions such as NPR.

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Figure 3: Passenger demand growth forecasts for the Hull Area

Some of the service options developed as part of this study enable connectivity benefits which will also serve outbound passengers travelling to other key regions and cities in the North and beyond. As part of the Strategic Question approach, the capacity constraints for such passengers will be addressed in the appropriate Strategic Questions for the relevant regions.

5.02 Rail Freight GrowthExisting freight flows in the Hull Area were examined to develop a representative service pattern for the baseline train service specification. Further analysis of Network Rail’s Freight Market Study has modelled the changes in freight demand up to 2043 to identify the future requirements in the Hull Area. Assessment of the freight forecasts and collaboration with stakeholders highlighted the need to provide an hourly freight path from the Hull Dock Line to Hessle Road and on to Gilberdyke Junction where the service was routed via Goole. The future development of rail connected sites in the Goole area alongside existing demand flows were key factors in the decision making process on service routing.

5.03 National Rail Passenger SurveyThe National Rail Passenger Survey (NRPS) provides a network-wide picture of satisfaction with the railway. The latest survey at the time of publication was undertaken in Spring 2019 and surveyed more than 30,000 passengers providing a valuable insight for the medium to long term strategic plan of the network. The overall journey satisfaction for rail passengers was recorded as 83% with the key drivers of satisfaction identified as punctuality, train cleanliness, frequency, length of journey and crowding. It is therefore important that in delivering additional capacity to facilitate economic growth in the Hull Area a high performing and reliable railway is achieved. An optimised and attractive service frequency proposition is also key as well as ensuring that existing journey times are not affected by more trains on the network. Delivering a high quality journey offer both in terms of train cleanliness and providing sufficient passenger capacity to reduce crowding also needs to be factored into how additional demand growth can be accommodated on the railway in the Hull Area. The inclusion of the drivers of passenger satisfaction in the strategic planning process allows Network Rail to put passengers first, identifying opportunities to deliver both economic growth and improve satisfaction with the rail network.

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2026 2033 2043

DfT WebTAG Network Rail System Operator TfN Transformational

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5.04 Growth Forecasts to 2026The growth forecasts presented in this study utilise the baseline train service specification without the sensitivities of the additional Beverley to Hull service and TfN Connectivity services between Hull and York and Hull and Scarborough as shown in Figure 2. This allows a clear understanding of the future needs of the network to be undertaken. The medium term demand forecasts to 2026 have up to 70% of seats occupied on both the Selby and Goole corridors into Hull across all growth scenarios. On the Beverley to Hull corridor under DfT WebTAG growth, between 85-100% of available seats are occupied.

For Network Rail System Operator and Transport for the North growth, standing of up to one passenger per square metre on average occurs between Beverley and Hull. Under DfT guidelines, allowance for standing passengers is made within 20 minutes of the critical load point, in this case Hull Station, given that it falls within the specific parameters for passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) determined for the franchise2. As Beverley and Cottingham fall within this 20 minute catchment, some standing is therefore acceptable according to the guidelines.

2 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9078/rail-notes-definitions.pdf

Figure 4: High peak arrivals into Hull 2026 Network Rail System Operator and TfN growth

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Conisbrough

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KnottingleyWhitleyBridge

Hensall Snaith Rawcliffe

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Wressle Howden Eastrington Gilberdyke Brough

Kirk SandallHatfield & Stainforth

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Broomfleet Ferriby Hessle

Cottingham

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Suburban rail services arriving into centralHull during the high peak hour 0800 to 0859

Hull 2026 capacity - System Operator & TfN

onof seats occupied on

of seats occupied onto 1 passenger per square

1 and 2 passengers2 and 3 passengers

3 passengers per square

loaded of travel

Based upon a map designed by Andrew Smithers© 2017 www.projectmapping.co.uk

and reproduced with permission

GREY No direct serviceLIGHT GREEN Up to 70% ofGREEN Between 70%DARK GREEN Between 85%AMBER PassengersRED PassengersPURPLE PassengersBLACK Passengers

Indicates the< >

No direct service to central Hull during the high peak hourUp to 70% of seats occupied on averageBetween 70% and 85% of seats occupied on overageBetween 85% and 100% of seats occupied on overagePassengers standing, up to 1 passenger per square metre on average

Passengers standing, between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on averagePassengers standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average

Indicates the most heavily loaded direction of travel shown for orbital services

Passengers standing, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average

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Figure 5: High peak arrivals into Hull 2033 Network Rail System Operator and TfN growth

5.05 Growth Forecasts to 2033In 2033 all three growth scenarios consistently show standing of up to one passenger per square metre on average between Beverley and Hull, with the relative number of standing passengers varying between forecast. Under both Network Rail System Operator and Transport for the North growth there is increasing demand on the corridor from Driffield to Beverley increasing seat occupancy on average to between 70-85%.

As per the 2026 forecasts, the lines in from Selby and Goole still have up to 70% seats occupied on average providing sufficient passenger capacity, notably due to the high number of services operating on this corridor.

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Hull 2033 capacity - System Operator & TfN

to central Hull during the high peak hourof seats occupied on average

and 85% of seats occupied on averageand 100% of seats occupied on average

standing, up to 1 passenger per square metre on averagestanding, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on averagestanding, between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on averagestanding, over 3 passengers per square metre on average

most heavily loaded of travel shown for orbital services




Indicates the< >





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5.06 Growth Forecasts to 2043The long term view of high peak capacity for 2043 demonstrates that crowding remains an issue between Beverley and Hull with increasing numbers of passengers standing, although still within the one passenger per square metre on average and within the 20 minute boundary for both the DfT WebTAG and Network Rail System Operator growth. Consistent with the 2033 forecasts, increasing demand between

Driffield and Beverley can be observed with seat occupancy continuing to rise. Up to 70% seat occupancy remains on the Selby and Goole corridors with high number of services and high capacity trains serving the Selby corridor likely to be a contributor to the available passenger capacity. As previously mentioned however, the aggregated and averaged nature of the data analysis may not sufficiently identify highly crowded individual train services on these corridors.

Figure 6: High peak arrivals into Hull 2043 DfT and Network Rail System Operator growth

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Thorne South

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Hull 2043 capacity - System Operator & DfT

direct service to central Hull during the high peak hourto 70% of seats occupied on average

70% and 85% of seats occupied on average85% and 100% of seats occupied on average

standing, up to 1 passenger per square metre on averagestanding, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on averagestanding, between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on averagestanding, over 3 passengers per square metre on average

the most heavily loaded of travel shown for orbital services




Indicates the< >

No direct service to central Hull during the high peak hourUp to 70% of seats occupied on averageBetween 70% and 85% of seats occupied on overageBetween 85% and 100% of seats occupied on overagePassengers standing, up to 1 passengers per square metre on average

Passengers standing, between 2 and 3 passenger per square metre on averagePassengers standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average



Bridge

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Figure 7: High peak arrivals into Hull 2043 TfN Transformational growth

Under the Transport for the North transformational growth scenario the level of standing between Beverley and Hull has worsened to between one and two passengers standing per square metre on average. Whilst this still within the previously referred to 20 minute passengers in excess of capacity parameter, the conditions are likely to necessitate an increase in available capacity to ease crowding as shown in Figure 7.

Seating occupancy has moved towards 100% on the stations from Driffield into Hull under this growth scenario, however, the Selby and Goole corridors remain with sufficient seating capacity of up to 70% occupation.

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Hull 2043 capacity - TfN Transformational Growth

to central Hull during the high peak hourseats occupied on averageand 85% of seats occupied on averageand 100% of seats occupied on average

up to 1 passenger per square metre on averagebetween 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on averagebetween 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on averageover 3 passengers per square metre on average

most heavily loaded of travel shown for orbital services




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5.07 Hull Station Pedestrian Capacity AnalysisAssessment of the platforms, walk-ways and concourse at Hull Station has been undertaken to ascertain if the existing infrastructure exhibits acceptable levels of crowding and delivers compliant platform clearance times for the forecast future growth in passengers. The analysis demonstrates that most trains are able to unload passengers without significant queuing, however, the existing gate from the concourse to the platforms constrains pedestrian flows. Furthermore, it is likely that Platform 2 will experience platform clearance time risk due to the platform width and access to the concourse. Both infrastructure and operational interventions are therefore recommended to deliver a safe and efficient station that accommodates long term growth and improves passenger satisfaction.

5.08 Options to accommodate growthThe exogenous growth forecasts in the Hull Area demonstrate a consistent trend of increasing demand from Beverley and Cottingham into Hull during the high peak hour. Assessment of the baseline train service specification and envisaged rolling stock has identified that whilst in the medium term to 2026 the DfT forecast growth can be satisfactorily accommodated, a capacity gap between the number of available seats and passenger demand between Beverley and Hull becomes an issue across other scenarios. By 2043 under the Transport for the North transformational scenario, standing has worsened from up to one passenger per square metre to between one and two passengers standing per square metre on average. A summary of the capacity gap for all growth scenarios and years in the high peak hour into Hull Station is provided in Table 1.

In all cases, passengers are standing within the acceptable 20 minute boundary from Beverley into Hull. However, there are a number of reasons why options to provide additional capacity should be considered, not only to put passengers first and reduce crowding as identified by the National Rail Passenger Survey, but also:

• Funders may have an aspiration for 100% seated capacity

• Passengers perceptions of crowding may be such that they choose to travel by rail at different times than would be optimal or use other modes of transport to make their journey

• Growth could increase at a faster rate than expected due to further housing developments and employment growth

In the first instance, train lengthening was considered to achieve additional passenger capacity on the corridors into Hull. Service choices to provide enhanced connectivity were also considered in line with stakeholder aspirations, this resulted in the following options taken forward to address the passenger capacity gaps in the Hull Area:

• Train lengthening: Bridlington to York service from 2 to 3 Cars

• Train lengthening: Bridlington to York service from 2 to 3 Cars; Beverley to Doncaster service from 2 to 3 Cars

• Additional 5 Car Beverley to Hull service

Table 1: Summary of Capacity Gaps

2026 2033 2043

DfT WebTAG Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull

System Operator Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull

TfN Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull

Key

Seated capacity

Passengers standing up to 1 passenger per sq m

Passengers standing between 1 and 2 passengers per sq m

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Table 2 summarises the effect of the various options on capacity between Beverley and Hull in the high peak under the three growth forecasts. Train lengthening of the Bridlington to York service in isolation is unlikely to make a significant impact on crowding into Hull. However, additional lengthening of the Beverley to Doncaster service provides sufficient seating capacity under both DfT and Network Rail System Operator Growth scenarios with up to one passenger standing per square metre on average under the TfN growth forecast. To provide 100% seating capacity in the TfN transformational growth scenario the additional 5 Car Beverley to Hull sensitivity is required.

The baseline train service specifications previously developed were therefore taken forward for network analysis with the following sensitivities to accommodate future growth at Hull.

• Baseline with train lengthening of Bridlington to York and Beverley to Doncaster services

• Baseline with additional Beverley to Hull service

• Baseline with additional TfN Connectivity services; York to Hull and Scarborough to Hull

Table 2: Summary of Options

Train Lengthening Scenario Additional Service Only

2043 3 Car Bridlington to York service 3 Car Bridlington to York & Beverley to Doncaster service

5 Car Beverley to Hull service

DfT WebTAG Cottingham - Hull

System Operator Beverley - Hull

TfN Beverley - Hull Beverley - Hull

Key

Seated capacity

Passengers standing up to 1 passenger per sq m

Passengers standing between 1 and 2 passengers per sq m

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6 Accommodating Future ServicesTo understand network capability in the Hull Area to accommodate future economic growth and train services, a concept train plan has been constructed.

6.01 Assessing Network Capability To understand network capability in the Hull Area to accommodate future economic growth and train services, a concept train plan has been constructed. The concept train plan has been constructed to make the most efficient use of available capacity on the current infrastructure and to identify the limitations in providing a reliable and robust future train service. Assessment across the railway geography in the Hull Area of the CMSP outputs and the emerging outputs for NPR has demonstrated that the quantum of train

services are the same, however, due to the wider network operational considerations of NPR different train lengths are envisaged. This collaborative approach has allowed a single and complementary narrative on the needs for the railway in the Hull Area to be developed to accommodate future growth.

A high level overview of the capacity analysis undertaken and key geographic areas of constraint in the Hull Area are demonstrated in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Identified network constraints for future growth

Cottingham

HessleHull ParagonInterchange

DairycoatesAggregate Terminal

Hull Dock

Botanic Gardens Depot

FerribySaltmarshe

Brough

Goole

Howden

Gilberdyk

e

Broomfleet

Eastringto

n

Wressle

Beverley

Arram

Dri�eld

Passenger line

N

Freight line

Hutton Cranswick

Na�erton

Bridlington

Hunmanby

Bempton

Seamer

Scarborough

Filey

Mixture of speeds and stoppingpatterns constrain network capacity

High number of movements acrossHull Throat and High Platform Occupancy

With up to two trains per hour reversing atBeverley on the main line network capacityis limited

Two trains per hour between Bridlingtonand Scarborough can not be accommodatedon the current infrastructure

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6.02 Options to deliver future servicesThe identified network constraints were assessed with stakeholders to produce a set of interventions that could accommodate future train services in the Hull Area to support economic growth to 2043. The recommended interventions were then taken forward with project engineers to produce high level engineering assessments utilising Network Rail’s Geographic Rail Infrastructure Model and signalling and track diagrams to understand the feasibility of each proposed scheme. High level order of magnitude costs were then developed following Network Rail cost planning procedures to provide an indicative scale of cost which could be apportioned to the expected benefit to understand the viability of each intervention. The costs have been categorised utilising a low, medium and high approach using the following criteria.

Low: Up to £5m

Medium: £5-£50m

High: >£50m

To provide a consistent approach for the potential interventions in the Hull Area to accommodate future train services, interventions have been grouped according to geographic theme aligning to the identified constraints in the capacity analysis.

Table 3: Summary of Options to Deliver Economic Growth in the Hull Area

Geographic Scope Constraint Intervention Options Benefits Cost

Delivering sufficient Platform capacity at Hull for long term economic growth

Class 80X units restricted to certain Platforms limiting the number available for the new Transpennine services.

Gauge clearance of additional Platforms at Hull to support Class 80X operation.

Introduction of longer and more frequent Class 80X units on Transpennine services will accommodate future demand and improve journey ambience by providing more opportunities to travel and reducing crowding, both of which have been recognised as key priorities in the National Rail Passenger Survey.

Low

Selective Door Opening is required to accommodate 2x5 Car Class 80X Services at Hull Station.

Platform extension to 265m for Platform 7 to ensure a 10 Car Class 80X formation can be fully platformed.

Longer trains fully accommodated in Platform 7 would put the passenger first and improve the journey experience providing more seats and reducing crowding, identified as a key priority by the National Rail Passenger Survey.

Low

Platforms at Hull are heavily utilised to accommodate the future service specification of more reversing and frequent train services which can limit the optimisation of pathing and end to end journey times.

Reinstate Platform 1 to provide additional flexibility to accommodate the additional services.

Existing platform and buffer stop are non-compliant to modern standards curtailing the maximum useable platform length to circa 55m. This limits the functionality of the intervention to 2 car trains constraining future train lengthening and additional seating capacity.

Low

Provide a new Platform of at least 135m to provide additional flexibility to accommodate the additional services.

A new platform to accommodate the longest train in the future service specification will increase flexibility of platforming to accommodate additional services reducing crowding, maintain journey times and offering more opportunities to travel in line with the priorities identified by the National Rail Passenger Survey.

Low

Each constraint links to a potential intervention which could resolve the problem. A qualitative benefit assessment provides detail on what the proposal would achieve with the indicative costing providing a scale for comparison. Table 3 provides a summary of the options to deliver economic growth in the Hull Area. Where more than one option is shown alongside a given constraint, the options are considered on an ‘either or basis’.

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Unlocking the constraints of Hull Throat to deliver the future train service specification

High utilisation of Hull Station throat amplified by three services per hour reversing from the Brough and Beverley corridors. Currently Hull station only enables limited opportunity for parallel arrival and departures which limits the capability of delivering more services across Hull.

An additional crossover from Platforms 4 and 5 to the Up Main line will give the option of departing from Platform 4 and 5 in parallel with arrivals (and departures to Beverley) from Platforms 6 and 7 providing an additional platform choice to enable throat movements.

More through trains at Hull connecting the Brough corridor to Beverley, Bridlington and Scarborough will increase connectivity, a key priority identified by the National Rail Passenger Survey and facilitate economic growth by reducing journey times and providing increased access to employment, education and health centres. Gauge clearance of all Platforms at Hull for Class 80X should also be assessed alongside this intervention to deliver the maximum benefit.

Low

The current layout does not allow arrivals from Brough being made in conjunction with services from Beverley. A crossover from the Down Main to the Up Man east of West Parade Junction would enable an arrival into Platform 2 or 3 from Brough alongside a departure to Beverley from Platforms 3, 5, 6 or 7 to support the future service structure.

More through trains at Hull connecting the Brough corridor to Beverley, Bridlington and Scarborough will increase connectivity, a key priority identified by the National Rail Passenger Survey and facilitate economic growth by reducing journey times and providing increased access to employment, education and health centres. Gauge clearance of all Platforms at Hull for Class 80X should also be assessed alongside this intervention to deliver the maximum benefit.

Low

An additional track solution would provide greater opportunity to segregate the routes and enable the potential for three parallel movements at the same time. A direct connection from the Beverley Lines to Platforms 6 and 7 enables an arrival/departure to Beverley alongside an arrival from Brough into Platform 4 or 5 and a departure to Brough from Platform 2 or 3.

More through trains at Hull connecting the Brough corridor to Beverley, Bridlington and Scarborough will increase connectivity and facilitate economic growth by reducing journey times and providing increased access to employment, education and health centres. Consideration would need to be given to the interactions with Botanic Gardens Maintenance Facility with this scheme. Gauge clearance of all Platforms at Hull for Class 80X should also be assessed alongside this intervention to deliver the maximum benefit.

Medium

Accommodating future services at Beverley Station

Trains terminating at Beverley use the northbound Platform 2 to reverse back to Hull, whilst a service is turning back it is not possible to run a service to Bridlington and Scarborough. The length of dwell to turn services around which will be required for up to two service in the hour from Doncaster and London King’s Cross constrain capacity to run services further north.

Platform 2 extension to 135m to ensure a 5 Car Class 80X formation can be fully platformed.

Longer trains fully accommodated in Platform 2 would put the passenger first and improve the journey experience for reversing services.

Low

An additional crossover to the south of Beverley to allow Platform 1 to be utilised to turnback services providing flexibility to accommodate services on the Yorkshire Coast Line. Platform 1 would require gauge clearance for Class 80X to ensure maximum functionality with a Platform extension to 135m.

Additional flexibility to accommodate the terminating Beverley to Doncaster and Beverley to London King’s Cross services to optimise the timetable for services to Bridlington and Scarborough from Hull improving the journey offer for passengers. An optimised timetable can reduce crowding spreading demand and seating availability across services and maintain an attractive high performing railway as highlighted by the National Rail Passenger Survey.

Low-Medium

Turnback siding to the North of Beverley Station to allow services terminating to be taken off the main line to release capacity for services to Bridlington and Scarborough.

Additional train services to Beverley from London King’s Cross and South Yorkshire can be accommodated without restricting capacity of the main line for services to Bridlington and Scarborough. The additional operational requirements to facilitate the reversing moves would need to be considered alongside this intervention to maximise the benefit.

Medium

Infrastructure to support the extension of an existing Beverley terminating service to Bridlington.

A reduction in dwell time and occupation of the main line at Beverley by extending services to Bridlington would provide additional capacity in the Beverley area. Improved connectivity to Bridlington would increase opportunities to travel and provide more seats on the Yorkshire Coast Line. The additional operational costs involved in this option would need to be considered alongside any infrastructure proposal.

Medium

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Increased network capability to deliver more connectivity and capacity between Hull and Gilberdyke

Additional train services result in the corridor having a mixture of speeds and stopping patterns which restrict the available track capacity affecting performance and journey times.

Optimise the headway to provide additional capacity for the future service pattern.

Introduction of more frequent Transpennine services and an additional service between Hull and York will provide more opportunities for travel enhancing connectivity between economic centres. The provision of more seats will reduce crowding and a solution to accommodate more trains will ensure that journey times are not affected, both of which form key priorities in the National Rail Passenger Survey.

Medium-High

Enabling a better journey experience for passengers at Cottingham Station

Selective Door Opening is required to accommodate 5 Car Class 80X service at Cottingham. Additionally, restrictions to enable safe operation of the railway limit the network capability.

Platform extensions to 135m for both Platform 1 and 2 to ensure a 5 Car Class 80X formation can be fully platformed. A new accessible footbridge would replace the foot crossing to the north of the station to provide for a safe and inclusive railway.

Longer trains accommodated in both Platforms would put the passenger first and improve the journey experience. Replacement of the existing foot crossing would provide a safer railway and remove operational constraints to improve reliability, a key driver of passenger satisfaction.

Medium

Delivering a step-change in the rail offer between Scarborough and Hull to deliver on Transport for the North’s Long Term Rail Strategy of two services per hour

The existing single track section between Bridlington and Hunmanby is only capable of accommodating one train per hour in each direction constraining the timing of services between Bridlington and Scarborough.

The section between Bridlington and Bempton would be the most optimal part of the network to double track to facilitate two trains per hour between Scarborough and Hull.

An additional Scarborough to Hull service would transform connectivity across East and North Yorkshire especially for the coastal and rural communities on the route by offering more opportunities to travel and access to education and health centres as well as better connectivity to the economic centres of the North. The improved frequency of services will improve the attractiveness of rail and encourage modal shift, enhancing rural sustainability. The benefits of such a service would however need to be considered in line with the additional operating costs that would be necessary to provide the train service.

High

Providing a safe and efficient Hull Station that accommodates the long term growth in passenger numbers

The existing access from the Platforms to the Concourse is restricted by the iron gating constraining pedestrian flows.

Remove the gating structure to increase the available width for pedestrians to access the Concourse from the Platforms.

A safe and attractive environment is provided for passengers to access rail services and the economic centre of Hull improving overall passenger satisfaction.

Low

Cycle parking facilities on Platform 2 impede pedestrian flows restricting Platform clearance times.

Relocate cycle parking facilities away from Platform 2 head end to improve Platform clearance times.

Low

Platform 2 clearance times are limited by Platform head-end capacity.

Provide direct access from Platform 2 to the Concourse to relieve congestion on the Platform walkways to reduce Platform clearance times.

Low

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7 Recommendations and Next StepsThe assessments carried out as part of this study have identified a number of challenges and opportunities to deliver future train services in the Hull Area.

7.01 Recommendations from the Strategic QuestionThe assessments carried out as part of this study have identified a number of challenges and opportunities to deliver future train services in the Hull Area. The future train service structure, with the additional capacity it provides, will drive the need for interventions to deliver a reliable and high performing railway. Providing a railway that can cater for the forecast growth in the Hull Area will enhance connectivity and capacity improving productivity to support a versatile and competitive economy in both the Hull Area and across the North of England.

In line with the Strategic Question approach, a number of sub-strategic questions were identified to provide an additional level of detail for the study. A summary of responses to these sub-strategic questions are presented below in Table 4.

Table 4: Summary for each Sub-Strategic Question

Sub-Strategic Question Summary

What are the interventions to improve the Yorkshire Coast Line Corridor comprising of Capacity, Connectivity and Journey Times?

Assessment of the economic growth forecasts in this study have consistently identified the section between Beverley and Hull experiencing standing in the medium to long term of up to one passenger per square metre. To provide sufficient seating capacity, train lengthening of both Bridlington to York and Beverley to Doncaster to 3 Car services are required. Additional connectivity through the regular extension of Hull to London King’s Cross services would also provide additional seating to meet increasing passenger demand but likely drive an intervention at Beverley. A strategy that puts passengers first would also include Platform extensions at Nafferton and Hutton Cranswick to fully platform 3 Car services to improve the overall journey experience.

To meet the conditional outputs of the Long Term Rail Strategy, the Bridlington service would need to be extended to Scarborough. However, the single track sections north of Bridlington limit capacity and a double track solution between Bridlington and Bempton is required as a minimum to accommodate two trains per hour between Hull and Scarborough.

Whilst there is the potential that journey time improvements could support two trains per hour on this section, performance and local connectivity would need to be carefully considered to deliver a robust and reliable railway and to not drive an intervention on the Filey to Seamer single track section. Transport for the North continue to work across the industry to identify and develop potential journey time improvement schemes, however the options for this corridor are not at a sufficient level of maturity to be considered in this study.

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Table 4: Summary for each Sub-Strategic Question

Sub-Strategic Question Summary

What are the interventions to improve the Selby Line Corridor comprising of Capacity, Connectivity and Journey Times?

The baseline train service specification provides sufficient capacity on this corridor under all growth forecasts in the medium to long term. However, this service pattern of seven trains per hour in addition to a freight path on a predominantly two track railway restricts the available track capacity affecting performance and journey times if an intervention is not delivered. The large quantum of trains, including three services reversing across Hull also heavily utilise the platforms and throat affecting service pattern optimisation, interventions at Hull Station would therefore improve flexibility to deliver the future train service.

To meet the conditional outputs of the Long Term Rail Strategy, an additional Hull to York service would provide the minimum two trains per hour. The previously identified constraints between Hessle Road Junction and Gilberdyke Junction as well as capacity in the Hull Station area are further exacerbated by this service option.

Whilst there is the potential that journey time improvements could assist in providing additional capacity on this section, further assessment of the service pattern and railway constraints would need to be undertaken. Transport for the North continue to work across the industry to identify and develop potential journey time improvement schemes, however the options for this corridor are not at a sufficient level of maturity to be considered in this study.

How can the Hull Station Area accommodate forecast passenger growth?

Station Capacity Analysis has considered the different growth forecasts and effect on the station infrastructure at Hull. In all scenarios, access from the Platforms to the Concourse is highlighted as a constraint with pedestrian flow on Platform 2 and access to the Concourse also identified as an issue for future growth.

How can freight be accommodated alongside future passenger services in the Hull Area?

Examination of the existing freight flows and Network Rail’s Freight Market Study, in addition to stakeholder feedback, identified the need for an hourly freight path between Hull Docks and Goole to deliver forecast freight demand. The interaction of the freight flow with a mixture of passenger services at Hessle Road Junction and Gilberdyke Junction find the need for an intervention on this section of railway to robustly accommodate the mixture of the train services in the medium to long term. Gauge enhancement from the existing W8 to W10/W12 could also be considered to maximise the benefit of freight path in the Hull Area.

How could Northern Powerhouse Rail aspirations be accommodated alongside other services in the Hull Area?

Comparison of the outputs from this study and the emerging outputs for Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) have demonstrated that the proposed quantum of train services to meet long term economic growth, albeit with additional levels of crowding, and the service quantum for NPR are the same. Whilst the differences in destination and train length for NPR are being examined separately within the NPR programme, the consistent service quantum between scenarios has allowed a complementary approach to the future needs of the railway in the Hull Area to be developed.

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7.02 Next Steps for the IndustryThis study has identified a number of potential enhancements to deliver forecast rail growth in the Hull Area. The options presented are investment choices for potential funders to be considered for development and delivery. Any development should be cognisant of the emerging work being undertaken on the Depot and Stabling and Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy workstreams to provide a coherent future strategy for the Hull Area. Where appropriate, schemes should look for synergies with identified future renewals to put the passenger and freight user first to minimise disruption and ensure value for money. If Central Government funding is sought, the development of the schemes should align to the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline (RNEP) process, established to create a rolling programme of enhancements. The decision points for investment in the railway are supported by the established Five Case Model for business cases ensuring value for money throughout the Lifecyle. Figure 9 illustrates the stages of the RNEP process and identifies where the key decisions for enhancement schemes take place. The first stage of the process, the ‘Decision to Initiate’ stage, is the establishment of the case for intervention and progresses to the development of a Strategic Outline Business Case. This would form the next stage in developing options for the Hull Area,

entering the potential interventions into the pipeline. Should the next stage, a ‘Decision to Develop’, be jointly agreed further development through the pipeline and business case cycle would be undertaken toward a ‘Decision to Deliver’ and deployment where the focus would move toward implementing the enhancement and realising the benefits.

The recommendations from this study have been developed collaboratively with a number of stakeholders to deliver a collective view on what is required to deliver future train services in the Hull Area to support economic growth to 2043. The System Operator will continue to work with funders to refine credible options that meet the needs of passengers and freight users; that drive social and economic benefits; and that fit with the long term needs of a reliable railway system to meet wider pan-Northern objectives in the Hull Area.

Figure 9: Illustration of the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline process

Decision to Initiate

Stage 1

Determine

Stage 2

Develop

Stage 3

Design

Stage 4

Deliver

Stage 5

Deploy

Decision to Develop

Decision to Design

Decision to Deliver

Acceptance


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Glossary

Abbreviation Definition

CMSP Continuous Modular Strategic Planning

DfT Department for Transport

ITSS Indicative Train Service Specification

LTPP Long Term Planning Process

LTRS Long Term Rail Strategy

NPR Northern Powerhouse Rail

NRPS National Rail Passenger Survey

PIXC Passengers in Excess of Capacity

RNEP Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline

SOBC Strategic Outline Business Case

TfN Transport for the North

TRU Transpennine Route Upgrade

WebTAG Transport Analysis Guidance

8 Glossary

Network Rail

1 Eversholt Street

London NW1 2DN

Documents

Hull Area Strategic Study 2019 - Network Rail