NAME DATE CLASS Weather Maps & Predicting Weather

Background: We check it in the morning or before we go to bed on our smartphones, TV, or internet. It’s important to us when we have an outdoor activity scheduled. It can be a buzzkill or a mood maker. But how do meteorologists predict the weather? And maybe more importantly—why are they sometimes wrong? Predicting weather is a complicated process of analysis and experience.

Meteorologists use several tools to help them make the best predictions and weather forecasts. Doppler radar, satellites, and weather planes give meteorologists vital data to analyze and predict the weather for tomorrow, the weekend, and even next week. But have you ever noticed that the forecast made at the beginning of the week for the weekend can be vastly different from the actual weather? Weather models can give meteorologists a picture of what could happen, but there are many factors that can change the weather forecast.

You will investigate a smaller version of how meteorologists use data to predict the weather, take a stab at predicting weather yourself, and then analyze why meteorologists can be wrong in their forecasts and the impacts of these misanalyses of data.

PART 1: USE TECHNOLOGY TO PREDICT THE WEATHER (Whole-Class Analysis)

At your tables, you will be assigned a particular map from an advanced meteorology program (see below). You need to draw the information on the transparency map of the USA. Then answer the analysis and conclusion questions below. ** See the station directions for specific websites and maps. **

1) In the table below, describe what each map shows (what is drawn on each map).

SatelliteMap

RadarMap

Temperature Map

Wind Speeds/Directi

on

FrontsMap

IsobarMap

2) What do you notice when you place these maps on top of one another?

3) Make a connection between…

a. The satellite and radar map?

b. The isobar and fronts map?

c. The wind and fronts map?

4) How could you use the radar map and temperature map to predict precipitation?

5) Could you use these maps to predict what the weather would be like in Virginia or New York?

PART 2: PREDICTING THE WEATHER (Individual or Partner)

Use http://www.math.uoc.gr/~kosioris/math297/img/weather_fronts.swf to understand fronts. Answer the questions and analyze the weather map.

Type of Front COLD FRONT WARM FRONT STATIONARY FRONT

OCCLUDED FRONT

Drawing of Front

Description in Words:

HIGH PRESSURE VS. LOW PRESSURE SYTEMS

Go to http://www.weatherworksinc.com/high-low-pressure and read about high pressure and low pressure systems.

Explain in your own words what happens to cause these systems. Use the picture to help with your explanation.

Look at the weather map below. The star is Indiana. What can you predict will occur from Figure 1 to Figure 2 in terms of temperature and precipitation?

Between Figures 2 and 4?

This map shows fronts and pressure systems overlapping. What do you notice about low pressure systems, fronts, and the weather they bring?

Look at a local weather map. Use the map and symbol chart to help answer the following questions.

At which location is there calm wind?

At which location is there an encroaching (moving towards) cold front? What weather would you expect to occur at that

location?

Location D has a high pressure system surrounding it; what weather would you expect to find there?

ON YOUR OWN: Using the weather map below, draw/color where you would predict precipitation and where you would predict clear/sunny skies. Option: You could use green for precipitation and draw a sun for clear skies.

Explain why you chose to identify sunny skies or precipitation on the map above. Be thorough in your explanation.

The Wor ld ’ s “Wrongest” Job—Meteoro logy

Below is a US citizen’s editorial regarding meteorologist. Read the editorial and make notes along the right-hand side, indicating the parts that you agree with, the parts you disagree with, and the questions you have. After you are done reading and notating, share with the person next to you.

This article brings up some interesting points. We DO use the latest technology to analyze patterns and predict global, national, and local weather forecasts. Meteorologists see large storms forming days in advance, prepare (and sometimes, frighten us!) citizens for upcoming extreme weather…only to have the storm cell break apart two feet (maybe an exaggeration) from your doorstep, while you’re buried under a pile of blankets or hiding in a closet. How does THAT happen? And why couldn’t they predict that the storm would break apart?

Perhaps, of more interest, every year since 1792, the Farmer’s Almanac has been published predicting long-range weather forecasts using a formula of prediction using the natural cycles of the moon (lunar) phases, sunspots, and sunrises and sunsets of the day and season.

Read the article to discover more about the Farmer’s Almanac and its accuracy. Then answer the questions.

Farmer’s Almanac Questions:

1) How accurate is the Farmer’s Almanac? Explain.

2) Do scientists credit the publication as being accurate? Describe their caution in following the Farmer’s Almanac.

And yet, still, the Farmer’s Almanac has an approximate 80% accuracy rate. What’s the accuracy rate of meteorologists? It is hard to say because some meteorologists work within different parameters. While they all look at the larger scope of forming fronts and air masses, almost all meteorologists will have to narrow down this broad information to very small areas of local weather. So shouldn’t that be more accurate? Why can’t they get it just right?

Use the T-Chart below to argue points made by two articles, “Confessions of a Meteorologist: How Often are we Wrong?” and “Sometimes We’re Wrong.” Be sure to detail what each meteorologist says about why their predictions are often a bust.

Key Point of Articles “Confessions” Article Says “Sometimes” Article Says

Everyone depends on weather forecasts.

Forecasting weather is complex.

We get the forecasts wrong, but the reasons

aren’t always the same.