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Politics Indiana V14 N38
By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS-Byearlythisweek,youcouldal-mostfeeltheairrushingoutofBarackObama’scampaign.WhiletheHowey-GaugePollofApril23-24hadObamawithanarrow47-45percentleadoverHillaryClinton,later
polls,includinganApril28SurveyUSAPollhadClintonsurgingtoa52-43percentleadinIndiana.ItcameadaybeforeObamaconductedapressconferenceinNorthCarolinaanddenouncedtheRev.JeremiahWright.Thesenseonthegroundwasthatashiftwasunderway.FortWayneJournalGazetteWashingtoncolumnistSylviaSmith
“It is time for us to unite behind Barack Obama NOW.’’ - Former DNC and Indiana Democratic Chairman Joe Andrew
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Obama seeks beyond distractionsCandidate talks ofenergy, Sen. Lugarand GOP supportBy BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS-AfewhoursafterU.S.Sen.BarackObamaconductedanationalpressconferencetodenouncehisformerpastor,Rev.JeremiahWright,heconductedthisphoneinterview
withHoweyPoliticsIndi-ana.Wetalkedabouthisper-sonal sacrifices inrunning,hisrelationshipwithHoosiers,
reachingouttoRepublicans,andpossiblerolesthatSen.RichardLugarandformerCon-gressmanLeeHamiltonmighthavewithanObamapresi-dency. HPI:Iseeyou’regoingtobebackinIndianaatGarfield Park tomorrow (Wednesday)
Obama:I’mlookingforwardtodoingsomeIndi-anacampaigning, HPI:Iwatchedyourpressconferencethisafter-noonregardingRev.Wright.Isthereeverapointwhere
See Page 4
HPI Analysis: ClintonObama race see-saws
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evencameoutandpredictedaClintonvictory. MissionaccomplishedforHill-aryClinton,right? Withinthespaceof12hours,Obamapickeduptwostunningen-dorsements. The first was from U.S. Rep.BaronHill,whorancounterto10ofthecountychairsinthe9thCDthatendorsedClinton.TheObamadilemmawithRev.WrightactuallypromptedHilltoact.“HiscommentsregardingstatementsmadebyRever-endWrightshowedmeanotheraspectofSenatorObama’sleadership,astrengthofcharacterandcommitmenttoournationthattranscendsthepersonal.Oneofthetestsofatrueleaderishisabilityandwillingnesstocometoanewconclusionbasedonnewevents.SenatorObamadidjustthatyesterday.” But the real stunnercamethismorningwhenformerDemo-craticNationalChairmanJoeAndrewreversedcourseandendorsedObama,ashiftawayfromClinton.“Iamconvincedthattheprimaryprocesshasdevolvedtothepointthatit’snowbadfortheDemocraticParty,”Andrew
saidinatelephoneinterviewwithTheAssociatedPress.HesaidcontinuedsupportforHillaryClintonis“avotetocontinuethisprocess,andavotetocontinuethisprocessisavotethatas-sistsJohnMcCain.WhileIwashopefulthatalong,contestedprimaryseasonwouldinvigorateourparty,thepollsshowthatthetoneandtemperatureoftheraceisnowhurtingus.” Andrew said thathehimselfhadbeen“partofthispoliticaltheater”whenhesparredwithLeeAtwaterandKarlRoveasDNCchair.“Iknowhowthegameisplayedandthat’swhyI’minspiredbysomebodywhosays,‘Youknow,wedon’thavetoplaythegame.” ItmayhavebeenapaybackforanotherformerDNCchair,TerryMcAuliffe,whocametoIndianapolisforaDemocraticLeadershipCoun-cileventin2001andembarrassedAndrewwhenhetoldtheconferencehowpoorlytheDNChadbeenrununderAndrew’stenure. Andrewhasapropensityformakingsudden,controversialmoves.Inthesummerof2003whenhewasrunningforgovernorofIndiana,
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008Page 2
Michelle and Barack Obama during their talk at Garfield Park in Indianapolis on Wednes-day. Michelle Obama called herself the family “cynic” and brought laughter when she pointed to her husband and said, “This is the hope guy. You really do believe this stuff.” (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Tuesday, May 1, 2008Page 3
heputBrenSimononhisticket.ShedroppedofftheticketinSeptemberafterthedeathofGov.FrankO’Bannon,deliveringthatmessageviathenewsmedia.AndrewlaterdroppedoutoftheracehimselfwithGov.JoeKernanre-enteredthe2004campaign.SimonisnowanardentHillaryClintonsupporterandfunder. Asked this morning ifhehadcalledSen.BayhorClintontoinformthemofhisdecision,Andrewsaid,“That’sjustthesameoldpoliticaltheater.Ididn’tcallBarackObamaandaskforpermission.NordidIcallHillaryClintonandaskforforgiveness.OrBillClintonorEvanBayh.Thattomeisthisoldpartofpoliticaltheaterthatweneedtomaketheseperfunctorycallswhereeverybodyknowswhatpeoplearegoingtosay.IthoughtitwouldbegoodgracenottocallEvanBayhorHillaryClintonandthenreportbacktoreporterswhattheywouldsayanduseitagainstthem.Itwouldbeunfairtothemandunfairtotheprocess.“ AndrewaccusedClintonof“pandering”onthegasolinetax,eventhoughGov.O’BannonuseditinJuly2000whereithelpedhimforgeaninsurmountableleadoverU.S.Rep.DavidMcIntoshforre-election. Thetwoendorsementsrepresentapotentialshiftthatwon’tlikelybegaugeduntilthenextsetofpollscom-ingovertheweekend.InHPI’sanalysis,Clintonappearstohaveclearadvantagesinthe5th,8th,and9thCDs.Obamaisfavoredinthe1stand7thCDs.Thatleavesthe2nd(South Bend. Mishawaka, Kokomo), 3rd (Fort Wayne and Northeastern Indiana), 4th (the Frankendistrict that strad-dles the college towns of Bloomington and West Lafayette), and the 6th (with the Rust Belt cities of Muncie, Anderson, Richmond along with Columbus) in play. The winner of the 6thCDgetsanextradelegate. AwinforObamaintandemwithNorthCarolinawouldbethedeathknellfortheClintoncampaign.AClin-ton Indiana win statewide would keep her flame alive, but even in that scenario, Obama would still keep a significant delegatelead,thoughitwouldcontinuetofuelthe“hecan’tclosethedeal”sentimentspercolatinginthenationalmedia. If nothing else,theHillandAndrewendorse-mentsshiftedthestoryawayfromRev.Wright,whoalmosteveryobserverbelieveswasdetrimentaltotheObamacampaignbyprovidingwhatthecandidatecallstheul-timate“distraction.”ThatcontroversycameasObamashiftedgears,spendinglastweekendplayingbasketball(and visiting the Indiana Basketball Hall of Fame with George McGinnis), and offering more intimate settings,
suchashislunchwithaBeechGrovefamilyandasmallroundtablemeetingatGarfield Park in Indianapolis. These events weredesignedtoaccentObama’sMidwest-ernroots.ClintonandObamasparredovergasprices,withClintoncallingforagastaxholidaywhileObamacalledita“gimmick”designedtowinanelectioninsteadofastableenergystrategy.FormerPresidentBillClintonwaspreparingtoheadintoRepublicanterritoryinNorth-eastern Indiana today (after campaigning inGOPstrongholdssuchasMartinsville,ShelbyvilleandHartfordCityearlierintheweek), lending credence of the Howey-Gaugeanalysisthatthe10percentRepub-licansand9percentindependentslikelytocrossovercoulddeterminetheDemocratic
presidentialprimarywinner. Obama counteredbyrerunninganearlierTVadthatshowshimwithU.S.Sen.RichardLugar.TheHowey-GaugePollalsobroughtmorecredibilitytoRushLimbaugh’smischiefincallingforGOPvoterstovoteforClinton,believingthatshewouldbeaneasieropponentinthefall. Turnoutwillbethekey.TheObamacampaignsignedup90,000ofthe200,000newlyregisteredvoters.AgoodpercentageoftheremainderarealsoexpectedtosupporttheIllinoissenator.TheObamacampaignwasorganizedearlierthanClinton.ItalsoexpectstouseitsThiesenPolygrammodelstoforgeanAfrican-Americanturnoutinthe1stand7thCDs,alongwithvitalcitiessuchasMuncie,SouthBend,Anderson,Richmond,Kokomo,FortWayne,Marion,Lafayetteandothercitieswithlargeblackpopulations.TheObamacampcanidentifyundecidedvot-ersandgetfriendlyneighborstomakeapitchwithinhours.Ithasalsoemployedabarbershop/beautyshopstrategyfor turning out the African-American vote (male activists go to beauty shops; females to barber shops). These are often thesocialnetworkingcentersinblackneighborhoods. All this leads towhatwillbeoneofthemostsensationalpoliticalweekendsinHoosierhistory.BothObamaandClintonareexpectedtomaintainintenseschedulesleadinguptoSaturdaynight.HillaryClintonwillcampaigninBrownsburg,JeffersonvilleandTerreHautetoday.ObamaisheadedtoColumbiaCityandSouthBend,withaFridaystopplannedforNorthwestIndiana.TheClintonsandJohnMellencampwillhavearallyonthelawnatWhiteRiverStateParkonSaturday.OnSunday,bothClintonandObamawillspeakattheIndianaDemocraticParty’sJefferson-JacksonDayDinner.Bythen,therewillbeanewsetofpollsthatwillstatisticallydocumentIndiana’sbarnburner.v
Former DNC and Indiana Chairman Joe Andrew
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008Page 4
you wonder whether it’s all worth such personal sacrifices? Obama:Well,whenyourunforpresident,oneofthethingsyousignontoisthefacttheAmericanpeoplewanttoknowwhoyouareandallaspectsofyou.Someofthemgetblownoutofproportion.Someofthemgetmag-nified. You have to take it as it comes. I think I was very clearabouttoday.Myformerpastordoesn’tspeakformeand doesn’t reflect my views. It was sad to see what hap-penedyesterday,yetIdon’twantthattobeadistractionaboutwhatthiscampaignisabout.TheAmericanpeoplearestrugglingandtheyneedhelp. HPI:Idon’twantthistobeadistractioneither.OnethingI’dliketoknowis,whenyouwereanorganizer
ontheSouthSideofChicago,didyouractivitiesspilloverintoIndiana? Obama:WewereworkingwithchurchesandCatholicparishesnotonlyonthesouthsideofChicago,butthesoutheastside,Hegewisch,spillingintosouthsuburbanareas.BecausethesewerealotofCatholicparishesaswellasBaptistchurchesandotherdenominations,thereweredefinitely members who were coming over from Indiana or hadmovedouttoIndiana.Theeconomywasallonepiecethere.Everybodywasconcernedaboutwhatwashappen-ingtothesteelindustry.Ireallylearnedhowdevastating
thoseplantclosingscouldbeandhowmuchworkhadtobedoneinordertomakesureweimprovedontheop-portunitiesandpossibilitiesforpeoplelivinginthoseareas.Theonlywaytodothatwastogetpeopletocooperateacrossraciallines,acrosscommunitylines,toinsistonmoreaccountabilityfromgovernment.Onethingwefailedto do was to get significant reinvestment in the community, andthat’sanareainwhichIthinkthefederalgovernmenthastostepup,puttinginplacethekindofinfrastructureimprovements,andalsotheresearchanddevelopmentthatcantriggernewsourcesofjobs,ofcleanenergy,biotech,orawholehostofotherjobcreatorsthatsofartheBushadministrationhasneglected. HPI: YoumovedtotheSouthSideofChicagointheearly‘80s? Obama: Itwas1985whenImovedthere.I’ve
beenlivingtherenowfor23yearswithsomelawschoolinbetween. HPI:WhatpromptedthatdecisioncomingoutofHarvard? Obama:Actually,here’sthesequence.IwenttoColumbia,graduated,andIwasworkingforafinancial magazine in New York and thendecidedtogoontosomesortofpublicservice.That’swhenIgotthejobinorganizing.SoIdidmyorganizingworkbeforeIwenttolawschool.AfterIgraduatedfromlawschoolIwentbacktoChicago,organizedavoterregistrationdrivethathelpedBillClintonandCarolMoseleyBraungetelected.ItwasafterwardthatIjoinedacivilrightsfirm and was elected to the state senateandthentheUnitedStatesSenate. HPI:Wewerejustinthefield, and one of the things show-ingisthatIndianaDemocratsseemevenlysplit46-46. Obama: Yes. HPI:Itlooksasifthere
willbealotofindependentandRepublicancrossover.WhatwouldyourmessagebetoIndianaRepublicans?IalsounderstandyoumadeaquickstopatRepublicanheadquar-tershereinIndianapolis. Obama:IwasinaneditorialboardmeetingattheIndianapolisStarandhadachancetoshakesomehandsafterwardanditturnsoutIwasacrossthestreetfromthestateRepublicanParty.Iknewacoupleofguysoutside,andtheywerebraggingaboutthefactthatIndianapolishasaRepublicanmayor,andIsaidyou’vehadacoupleofgoodones.DickLugarwasagoodmayor.Idothink
Obama Interview,from page 1
Sen. Barack Obama makes a point during a community round table at Garfield Park in India-napolis on Wednesday. The Obama campaign is putting the candidate in more intimate set-tings to reinforce his “Midwestern sensibilities.” (HPI Photos by A. Walker Shaw)
Thursday, May 1, 2008Page5
Republicans,likeDemocrats,arelookingforsomethingdifferent.IthinktheyaredisillusionedwithGeorgeBush’sperformanceontheeconomy.Ithinktheyareconcernedaboutthepolicies,andmorepeoplearestrugglingtopaytheirhealthcarebills,peoplearelosingtheirjobs,peoplearelosingtheirhomes,andRepublicans,likeallAmericans,Ithink,areconcernedaboutourforeignpolicyandthewarinIraq.SowehaveanopportunitytoreachouttotheseRepublicansandgettheminvolvedinanewmovementtoreallygovernwithcommonsenseandpragmatismasopposedtogoverningwithideologythewayGeorgeBushhas.Thatmeanswehavetoreachout.Ican’tbeapolar-izing figure. I think one of the things I’ve been able to do isattractindependentsandRepublicanstogetthingsdone,andthat’shopefullywhatI’mgoingtodoaspresidentoftheUnitedStates. HPI:We’veheardRushLimbaughtalkaboutRepublicanssupportingHillaryClinton,whichremindsmeofsomeoldMikeRoykocolumnsthatsaidtolietothepollsters.Areyouconcernedaboutthatkindofmischiefonthefringeofwhatlookslikeacloseelection? Obama: Youneverknowwhattheyaregoingtobeupto.ButIcan’tworryaboutthat.Ihavetofocusmytimeonmakingsurewedoeverythingwecantogetnewvoterstothepolls,attractindependentsaswellasRe-publicans. Talk about the very specific ways we are going tochangepoliticstomakepeople’slivesbetter.Allofusareconcernedaboutjobs;allofusareconcernedaboutgasprices,allofusareconcernedabouthealthcare.Sen.ClintonandIhavebeentalkingabouthowtomakethesechanges,whetheritisinvestingininfrastructureorinvest-ingingreentechnologyjobsormakingsurecollegeismoreaffordablethroughtuitioncredits.SomanyofthesechangesdependonmovingbeyondthespecialinterestpoliticsthathasdominatedWashington,andthat’sgoingtobeoneofmytopprioritiesaspresidentandthat’sthecampaignthatI’verunandit’sbeenverydifferentfrom
Sen.Clinton’s. HPI:IattendedyourcampaignkickoffinSpring-field and you mentioned two political figures: Abraham LincolnandDickLugar.TellmeaboutyourrelationshipwithSen.Lugar. Obama:Sen.Lugarisawonderfulsenatorandathoughtfulperson.HeandIdevelopedacloseworkingrelationshipsurroundingissuesofweaponproliferation.WetookatriptogethertoRussia.Wehadacommonviewthatoneofthemostimportantthingsweneedtodoislockdownloosenuclearweapons,andhehasobviouslybeenagreatleaderwithSamNunnonthatissue.Butwe’vegottocontinuetomakesurewemakefurtherprogress.Wecoulddoanenormousamountinfouryearsifweputinmoreresources.ThesearethekindsofissuesDickandIworkedon.Wealsoworkedonissuessurroundingalternativeen-ergyandhehasbeenagreatleaderonthataswell. HPI:IhadtheopportunitytotraveltoRussiaandUkrainewithSens.NunnandLugarlastsummer.WillyoumaketheNunn-LugarActandthosetypesofissues,includ-ingconventionalweapons,apriorityinanObamapresi-dency? Obama:Itwillbeatoppriority.Itwillbesome-thingIcaredeeply,deeplyabout.Wecandefeatterror-istswhoareequippedconventionally.Thedevastationtheycoulddowithweaponsofmassdestructionwouldbeunimaginableandwehavetomakesurewearedoingeverythingwecandointhatscenario. HPI:CouldyoudescribethekindofrolethatpeoplelikeSen.LugarandLeeHamiltonwillhaveinyouradministration.Willtheyhaveyourear? Obama: SamNunn,Lugar,Hamilton:Ithinktheyrepresentabipartisantraditionofacommonsense,realis-ticforeignpolicy.ItisthekindofforeignpolicyIintendtopursue.v
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008Page 6
Bayh, Parker put the squeezeon Democrat county chairsBy RYAN NEES
KOKOMO-Yesterday’sannouncementfromtheClintonCampaignthatithadsecuredtheendorsementsof40IndianaDemocraticPartycountychairswastheresultofamonths-longeffortbySen.EvanBayh and state party officials to mobilizetheparty’sgrassrootsmachineryinsupportoftheNewYorksenator. TheClintoncamphasreliedprimarilyonBayhandstatepartychairmanDanParkertosecureendorsementsfromlegislators,mayors,andcountychairsinaneffortthathasencompassedpersonalphonecalls,dinnerdates,andsome-timesacrimoniousarm-twisting.ThecovertorganizinghasmiffedObamasupportersandimpartialpartyleadershopingthatneu-tralitywillmitigatepost-primaryfracturesintheparty. Yetinrecentweeks,theworkhaspaidoffforSenatorClinton,whohasevenwelcomedarashofonce-neutralleaderswhoaresuccumbingtoprivatepressureinincreasingnumbers. Parkerbegantherecruit-menteffortforClintonwhenBayhannouncedhisendorsementofherninemonthsafterabandon-inghisownpresidentialambitionsin2006.Amonthlater,Parker had enlisted 17 others, including the chairs of five of Indiana’sninecongressionaldistrictsandtwoothersuper-delegates (Parker himself is one). “Behind the scenes it’sbeeninteresting,”saidTimSouthworth,thechairofIndiana’ssixthcongressionaldistrict,whoremainedneutraluntilyesterday.HereceivedacallfromParkertheweekBayhendorsed,butwithheldhissupportsothathecould“hearbothsidesofthestory.”Heacknowledgedthatpartypressuresinceplayedapartinhisdecisiontogopublic. Southworth’s but one official whose endorsement planshavechangedrecentlyandsuddenly.Ofthe30county chairs and party officials that HPI interviewed for
thisstory,sevenwhowereoncesteadfastlyneutralhavesinceendorsedClinton.NonehasendorsedObama. JohnBonecutter,theClintonCountychairman,lastmonthexpressedbewildermentattheendorsementsofother officials. “I don’t know why they would do that before theprimary,”hesaid.“Iwouldn’twanttofavoroneortheotherinmyposition.Iwouldnotpresumetoendorseinapublicforumofanykind.”Yesterday,BonecutterendorsedClinton.
“If you endorse somebody,thenyou’resaying,‘Thisismycandidate,andwe’renotevengoingtoworkforyou,’”saidSandraTyler,chairoftheFultonCountyDemocraticParty.“Idon’tthinkthat’sthewayitshouldbe.Weneverhaveendorsedandit’sbeenmypolicyforthelasteightyearsthatwedonotendorseanybodyintheprimary.Everybodyhasachance...[Otherwise]that’sbasicallyclos-ingthedoortotheothercandidate.”Tyler,too,hassinceendorsedHillaryClinton. Theothercapriciouschairshaveacknowledgedthepressurethey’vecomeunder.Thestatepartyissup-portingHillary,formerlyneutralClayCountyChairmanJosephBroylessaid,addingatthetime,“Ifeelthatpres-sure.” Bayhhasimplicitlycasthiscon-versationsinpersonalterms,arguing--withoutarguing--thatClinton’snominationcouldearnhimthevicepresidentialnomination.“There’sbeenthemessagesentoutthatBayhisontheshortlistifHillarywins,”MikeAdkins,thechairoftheHancockDemocraticParty,said.Andasthede
factoleaderoftheIndianaDemocraticParty,Bayh’scircle,withParkerintheleadontheground,controlsthepursestringsofthepartyaccountsthatvulnerablemayorsandlegislators (of which there are many) perennially count on forre-electioninincreasinglyexpensivecontests.AdkinscharacterizedClinton’sIndianaoperationas“top-bottom,”Obama’sas“bottom-up.” The pressure generatedbyBayh,inparticular,hasweighedheaviestonthechairsofIndiana’slargestcounties, whose support he sought first and most ag-gressively.OnechairwasinvitedbyClintontolunchwithSenatorBayhandChairmanParker.LaterBayhandsec-onddistrictchairmanButchMorganmetwiththedistrict’schairsonbehalfoftheClintons. “Iknowthatthestatepartyseemstobelining
A jovial Hillary Clinton appeared before 3,000 people at Kokomo Wednesday night. (HPI Photo by Ryan Nees)
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008Page 7
upbehindMrs.Clinton,”saidShariMellin,whoattendedthemeetingandischairwomanoftheElkhartDemocraticParty. “We’ve definitely been asked to formally support Mrs. Clinton...Idothinkit’samistaketomakeanendorse-mentlikethat.WhataretheygoingtodoifHillarydoesn’twinIndiana?IfBarackObamawins,thatwouldbeanawk-wardsituation.Ijustthinkit’samistaketoendorsewhenyouhavetwogoodcandidatesrunning.”Mellinaddsthattherewereno“strongarmtactics,”butexpressedsurprisewhenParkertouredwithformerPresidentClintonaroundIndiana.YesterdayParkeraccompaniedBayhChiefofStaffTomSugartoacampaignrallywithClintoninKokomo. Parker long ago abandonedanypretenseofneutrality,usinghispositionaschairtodisseminateClintontalkingpointstomediaoutlets,adoptingtheClintonianlingoforsuperdelegates--“automaticdelegates”--inaMarchinterviewwiththeSouthBendTribuneandlatertellingJimShellaonIndianaWeekinRe-viewthatClinton’sprolongedcampaignonly benefited the party. Parkerandtheotherchairsarecarefultonotethattheirendorsementsare “personal,” and don’t officially consti-tuteanendorsementoftheorganizationthey represent. But few party officials not workinginstateheadquartersbelieveit.“Iknowthatthestatepartywantstode-livervotesforHillary,”saidHenryCountyChairSteveClark,whofearsthattheleadership’sactivistrolecoulddeependivisionswithintheparty“iftheymakesuchahardpush.” “Idon’tfeellikeIcanendorseasaregularvoter,becauseI’mthecountychair,andpeopleknowthat,”saidElkhartChairMellin.“IftheysayShariMel-linisforObama,andevenifIsay,‘Thisisnottheparty’sendorsement;it’sapersonalendorsement,’let’sfaceit,whocaresifit’smypersonalendorsement?ThereasontheylooktomeatallisbecauseI’mthecountychair.” Every other chairHPIspoketoechoedthesameconcerns,fearingpartysquabblinginaprimarywouldtipthepartyoveraprecipiceofangrydisasterinwhathasemergedasthemostpromisingDemocraticelectoralyearindecades.“IoweittotheDemocratstoallowthecandi-datestohaveequalopportunitiesandequalaccess,”saidBooneCountyChairJimWhelan,whoexpressedoptimismattheprospectofthe“rebirth”ofhiscounty’sparty. InIndiana,theDemocraticprimaryiscloserthananyinrecentmemory.YetClintonhasenjoyednearunani-moussupportfromtheparty’spure-bred,luringfourofthestate’ssuperdelegatesalmostimmediatelyandleveragingSen, Bayh’s influence to elicit a mind-numbing string of localendorsements.Despitethis,ObamacontinuestokeepIndianawithinthemarginoferrorinthelatestHowey-
Gaugepollofthestate. NowtheoptimismexpressedbyWhelaniswan-ing, and officials like Newton County Chair Terri Pasierb say thatdamagetothepartyhasalreadybeendoneasfeelingshardenandthecampaignsgrowmorepersonal. The 9th CD has become especiallyvolatile.DistrictChairmanMikeJonessoughtpermissiontoendorseClintonfromhisdistrict’scountychairsatthreeorganiza-tionalmeetingsinarow,gettingrebuffedeachtime,ac-cordingtoJeffersonCountyChairJimMelton.FinallyJonesendorsedyesterdayanyway,departingonthesamedayfromBaronHill,thecongressmanwhoseinterestsJonesisprimarilytaskedwithlookingafter,butwhobuckedBayhtoannouncehisendorsementofObama. BayhfundraiserDeanBoersteimmediatelybe-gantheretributionagainstHill,distributingamasse-mailtopartyinsidersthatangrilyaccusedHillof“defyingall
politicallogic”andthreatening“damagetoCongressmanHill’sre-electionefforts.”ThemessageencouragedrecipientstocallHill’soffice and express their “concerns of [Hill] makinganyendorsements,”advisingthecongressmanto“stayfocusedonhisre-election.”ThequestionofneutralityhasbecomeimportantasDemocratsgrowincreasinglywearyoftheprospectofadrawn-outnomi-nation fight between Clinton and Obama. Obama’spledgeddelegateleadbecamenearlymathematicallyinsurmountableforClintonovertwomonthsago,butstillhercampaignpersistsamidsinkingpollnum-bersforObama,whohasbeenunableto
quell the controversy swelling around inflammatory ser-monsofthesenator’sformerpastor. ContinueddoubtsaboutObama,combinedwiththemeteoricriseofaClintoncampaign,isperhapstheworst-casescenariofortheDemocraticParty,whoselead-erswillconfrontpressuretoabandonObamainthefaceofelectabilityfearsaswellaspressurenottoalienatethemillionsofnewvotersObamahasluredtotheparty. Yet instead of unitingaroundObama,evenasClintonsupportersacknowledgeheisthefavoriteforthenomination,thepartycontinuestofurtherdivide,afactexhibitedthismorningbythestunningdefectionfromClintonofformerDemocraticNationalCommitteeChairmanJoeAndrew,asconsummateaHoosierClintonandBayhdevoteeasParker. NowAndrewis“convincedthattheprimaryprocesshasdevolvedtothepointthatit’snowbadfortheDemo-craticParty,”andappealstoDemocratsto“healtheriftinourparty.” Hedoesit--howelse?--withanendorsement.v
Bayh hopes his organization can deliver the state for Clinton. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey)
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008Page 8
With Hill’s endorsement, Obama gets Blue Dog nod By MARK SCHOEFF JR.
WASHINGTON-PickinguptheendorsementofRep. Baron Hill (D-9th CD) six days before the Indiana pri-maryprovidesSen.BarackObama,D-Illinois,somecoveragainstattacksthatheistooliberalforHoosiervoters,evenDemocraticones. Hill’smove,however,immediatelyspurredtheRepublicancongressionalcampaignarmtobrandHillasaliberal.ItalsorisksraisingtheireofanotherconservativeHoosierDemocrat,Sen.EvanBayh,astrongsupporterofSen.HillaryRodhamClinton,Obama’srivalfortheDemo-craticnomination. Butfornow,Hill’sbackingraisesObama’ssuperdelegatecountto246,andputsinhiscolumnsomeonewhohasworkedhardtoburnishhisconservativecredentials.ThatmighthelpObamatampdowncriticismthatheiselitist,basedonremarkshemadeaboutworkingclasspeopleataSanFranciscofundraiser. Hill’sbackingmightalsohelpfurtherdistanceObamafromtheformerpastorofhisChicagochurch,theRev.JeremiahWright,whoburstbackontothepoliticalsceneearlierthisweekwithprovocativespeechesinDetroitandWashington. Inhisremarks,WrightassertedthatAmericahascommittedterroristacts,andmayhavebroughttheSept.11,2001,attacksonitself,andthatthegovernmentunleashedAIDSonminoritycommunities,twoaccusationsfromprevioussermonsthatroiledObama‘scampaignwhentheywereairedonYouTubeearlierthisyear. InaMarchspeechonracialrelations,ObamacriticizedWrightbutdidnotdisownhim.Thisweek,ObamarebukedWrightmoreforcefully,sayinghewas“outraged”byhisstatementsandthat“theycertainlydon’tportrayac-curatelymyvaluesandbeliefs.” The Hill endorsement helpsassuageworriesaboutcollateraldamagefromWrightamongsuperdel-egates.AlthoughObamaispickingthemupatarapidclip,Clintonstillleadsinthatcrucialcategory. Superdelegatesmaydeterminethenomineeifnei-therObamanorClintoncanwrapupthenominationbeforetheparty‘sconventioninAugust. ButontheheelsofanotherWrightcontroversy,Obamacanclaimsupportfromasuperdelegatewhorep-
resentsarural,conservativesoutheastIndianadistrictthatvotedforPresidentBushin2004. “IampleasedthatSenatorObamaclearlyandunequivocallydenouncedReverendWright’sremarks,”HillsaidinastatementonWednesday.“Hoosiersdon’tfeelthatwayaboutourcountry,Idon’tfeelthatwayaboutourcountryandSenatorObamamadeitabundantlyclearthathedoesn’tfeelthatwayeither.” Hill becomes the second memberoftheHoo-siercongressionaldelegationtoendorseObama,followingnewly elected Rep. Andre Carson (D-9th CD), who won aspecialelectioninMarchfortheseatthatwasheldbyhislategrandmother,formerRep.JuliaCarson.TheotherDemocraticmembersofthedelegation,Reps.PeteVis-closkey,JoeDonnellyandBradEllsworth.havenotmadepresidentialendorsements. LikeCarson,Hillfollowedtheleadofhispolitical
mentorinjoiningtheObamacamp.For-merRep.AndyJacobsendorsedObamabeforeCarsondid.AndformerRep.LeeHamiltonannouncedhisObamasupportinadvanceofHill’sdecisiontodothesame. TheendorsementcomeswithrisksforHill.IndianahasbecomeavitalswingstateindeterminingtheDemocraticnominee.Thewinnerwillnotforgetwhohelpedhim--orher--afterthevotesaretallied.Inaddition,regardlessofthepresidentialoutcome,BayhwillcontroltheIndianaDemocraticpartyfortheforeseeablefuture.Cross-inghimmaycauseproblemsforHillfor
yearstocome. But Hill, who first won his congressional seat in 1998andhashelditexceptfor2004-06whenhelosttoformerGOPRep.MikeSodrel,likelyoweslesstoBayhforhispoliticalcomebackthanthefreshmenDonnellyandEllsworthdofortheirascendance. Hill seems to believe his gamblewillpayoffbecauseHoosierswillembraceObama,whohesaysisanantidoteto“partisangridlock.” “Thestakesarejusttoohigh,”Hillsaid.“Wecannotcontinuetopursuethesamepoliticsofpersonaldestruc-tionwehaveengagedinforageneration….SenatorObamahasthecapabilitytochangethetoneandtenorofpoliticsinWashington.” HillmaybeabletohelpchangeperceptionsofObamaasaliberal.AmemberoftheBlueDogDemocrats,Hillisachampionofso-calledpay-gorulesthatrequireCongresstooffsettaxcutswithspendingreductionsortaxincreaseselsewhereinthebudget.Hillpointstothispolicyas an example of his fiscal conservatism. Leavingasidethefactthatsuchspendingrectitude
Sen. Obama campaigning for Democrats Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill and Joe Don-nelly. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey)
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008 Page 9
couldundermineObama’scallforuniversalhealthcare,analliancewithObamamaytarnishHill’sconservativesheen. The National RepublicanCongressionalCommit-teeattackedHillforhisendorsementonWednesday,citingOsama’s“radicalagenda”thatincludes“anassault”ongunrights,oppositiontopartialbirthabortion,supportofdriver’slicensesforillegalimmigrantsandapushtoraisetaxesandinstitute“government-runhealthcare.” “BaronHill’sdecisiontosidewiththemostlib-
eralmemberoftheUnitedStatesSenate,whorecentlyclaimedthatpeople’cling’totheirreligionandtheSecondAmendmentbecausetheyarebitterisanaffronttoIndianavoters,”saidNRCCspokesmanKenSpaininastatement.“InadistrictthatwillundoubtedlyvoteforJohnMcCaininNovember,BaronHillhasjustlatchedhispoliticalfortunetoafar-leftliberalextremist…Hill’sendorsementismind-bog-glinganditisproof-positiveofjusthowoutoftouchheiswiththevaluesandinterestsofhisconstituents.”v
2008 Indiana Governor Governor 2008:Republican:Gov.MitchDaniels,.Democrat:JimSchellinger,JillLongThompson.1996 Results: O’Bannon (D) 1,075,342, Goldsmith (R) 997,505, Dillon (L) 35,261. 2000 Results: O’Bannon (D) 1,230,345, McIntosh (R) 906,492, Horning (L) 38,686. 2004 Results: Daniels (R) 1,302,912, Kernan (D) 1,113,900, Gividen (L) 31,644.2008 Forecast:Howey-GaugePollhasThomp-sonleadingSchellinger45-27percent.Slamdunk,right?Here’showweassessthisrace.BothcampaignsappeartobeonsimilarfootingonTVads.ThompsoniscreamingSchellingeronearnedmedia.TheSchellingercampaignhasbeenabsolutelyabysmalonearnedmedia.ThecandidatetouredthestatewithJohnGreggandaColumbusschoolboardmembertryingtoexplainthewholelobby-ist/architectstory.TherewerecomplaintsfromSchellinger’soldbusinesspartneratSchenkel-ShultzcomplainingaboutphotosusedintheThompsonads.Thatwasfuelfortheblogsthatwillhavenoimpactonreality.Thompson’sat-tackadonSchellingerover“lobbying”andpropertytaxeswasdesignedtodrawaharddistinction.SchellingerhasbeenuponTVtwomonthsandasHowey-Gaugenoted,hasabysmalrecognitionlevels.Thisisamessageprob-lem. Schellinger looks to have a signficiant edge on voter out-reach.Thecampaignistargetingmorethan200entireprecinctswithmorethan200,000callscomingthrough14UAWphonebanks.ThompsonisusingherSteelworkerallies,buttheyarenotnearlyisformidableastheUAW.WebelievethatSchellingercutsintoThompson’sleadinthe final week due to this outreach. Schellinger’s problem is that it may not be enough to cut into the outflows of the Clinton (older females) and Obama (African-Americans) whowillbringvotestoThompson.ThismaybeoneraceinagenerationwhereGOTVandvoterout-reachmaybenegatedbyoutsideforces.Thompsoncontinuestopickupkeyendorsementsincluding,includingLakeCountySheriffRoyDominguez,StateSen.ConnieSipesand1984Demo-cratic gubernatorial nominee Wayne Townsend (Go get
‘em, Wayne). We don’t have an engaged general election. ADemocratneedstogetintothe75or80percentrangeinordertodrawaclearcontrastwithGov.Daniels,andbothThompsonandSchellingerarewellbelowthatthreshold.Schellingerhasshiftedgearsabit,nowindicatinghe’s“open”tocappingorsuspendingthesalestaxongasoline(Fort Wayne Journal Gazette).Indianaisoneofonlyahandfulofstatesnationwidethatappliesthestatesalestaxtogasolineinadditiontostateandfederalgastaxesthatpayforroadimprovements.SalestaxescollectedongaspurchasesinIndianagotothestategeneralfundtofinance basic governmental services. Jill Long Thompson, whoisrunningagainstSchellingertobetheDemocraticnomineeforgovernor,proposedinearlyAprilcappingthestatesalestaxongasat$2.75agallon.Atthattime,thecostoftheproposalwasestimatedtobe$100million,butasgaspricesincrease,sodoesthecostoftheprogram.“Wehavetomakeresponsibledecisionsandnotknee-jerkdecisionsinanelectionyeartotrytowinvotersover,”Schellingersaidoftheproposalduringtheonlydebatebetweenthecandidates.ButonanIndianapolisradioshowWednesdaymorning,hesaidheis“open”totheideaofatleastasuspensionofthesalestaxongasoline.CampaignspokeswomanJenniferWagnerdefendedSchellinger’sposi-tionWednesday.“Henevereversaidhewasopposedtotheplan,”shesaid.“Hesaiditwasapoliticalgimmickandcriticizedthepricetag,butthatdoesn’tmeanhewasn’topentotheidea.”PrimaryStatus:LeansThompson
2008 Congressional Congressional District 5: Republican:U.S.Rep.DanBurton,Dr.JohnMcGoff,ClaytonAlfred.Democrat: ChesterKelsey,MaryEttaRuley,KennyStall.Geography:MediaMarket:Indianapolis,FortWayne,SouthBend.People:Urban/rural73/27%;medianincome$40,381;Poverty9.5%;Race84%white,8%black;5Hispanic;Blue/whitecollar:34/50%.2006RepublicanPrimaryResult:Burton61,150,Alfred6,869,Wakley4,822.2006 General Result: Burton (R) 133,118, Carr (D) 64,362,
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008Page 10
Sharlow (L) 7,431, Miller (I) 18. 2008 Forecast:U.S.Rep.DanBurton,Dr.JohnMcGoff,ClaytonAlfred.Democrat:ChesterKelsey,MaryEttaRuley,KennyStall.2008Outlook:AswenotedattheHowey-GaugePoll Briefing on Tuesday, McGoff has a great fav/unfavratio,butwith48percentnameID,comparedto98percentforRep.Burton,he’sjustnotinapositiontopulllofftheupset.BurtonisrunningTVadsonimmigration(he’s against amnesty and for building a wall) andasecondonethatassailsthe“liberal”BarackObama.Burton’sinternalsaresimilartoHowey-Gauge.McGoffisrunninghis“in-tegritymatters”adsintheIndianapolismediamarket.Primary status:LikelyBurton
Congressional District 7: Democrats: U.S.Rep.AndreCarson,StateRep.CaroleneMays,StateRep.Da-vidOrentlicher,Dr.WoodrowMyers,JosephStockettIII,FrancesNelsonWilliams,LarryLedford,PierrePullins.Republican:StateRep.JonElrod,CatPing,LawrenceShouse2008 Outlook: CarsoncampaignisseeingsimilarinternalstoHowey-GaugePollthathadRep.Carsonleading45-27%.Myershasuppedhispersonalspendingonthe7thCongressionalDistrict primary race to $1.6 million (Indianapolis Star). Myers,amultimillionnaire,reportedtotheFederalElectionCommissionthisweekthathehasloanedhiscampaign$356,000ontopofnearly$1.3millioninpreviousloans.MyersisoneofsixDemocratshopingtodefeatRep.AndreCarson,D-Indianapolis,onTuesdayfortheDemocraticnominationinthedistrict.StateRep.DavidOrentlicher,an-otherchallenger,previouslyreportedloaninghiscampaign$327,000.Primary Status:LeansCarson
9TH CD:Republican:MikeSodrel.Democrat:U.S.Rep.BaronHill,GretchenClearwater,LendallB.Terry,JohnBottorff.2008Outlook:Hillreported$1millioncashonhand.HisendorsementbyObamawillbewellreceivedinBloomington,wherehehasmuchsupportbutsometimestakescriticismfromDemocratswhosayheisnotliberalenough.TheObamaendorsementscratchesthatitch.GeneralStatus:Tossup
2008 Indiana Legislature Trendline No. 1:Overthepastthreeprimaryelection cycles, we saw major upsets (Sen. Steve Johnson in 2002, Larry Borst in 2004, and Bob Garton in 2006). We thinkthatstringbreaksthiscycle.WhileStateSens.Luke
Kenley,ConnieLawson,BeverlyGardandTeresaLubbersallhaveprimaryopponents,wedon’tseeanyupsetsbrew-ingatthispoint. Trendline No. 2: Thatisnottosaythatbythetime the Senate reconvenes, there won’t be a significant presencemissing.NumerousinformedandreliableState-housesourcestellHPIthatSen.BobMeekshassufferedanotherstroke.Hehasn’tscheduledhisannualgolfout-ing.Heiscontributingchunksofhiscampaignwarchesttoothercampaigns.ManybelievethatMeekswilllikelyresignthissummer.SenatePresidentLong’sappointmentofSen.BrandtHershmantothebudgetadvisorycommitteeisseenbysomeasthebeginningofatransitionintheSenatebudgetapparatus.ThereareotherchangescomingtotheSenateCommerceCommittee,whichlostStateSen.DavidFordtocancerthisyear.Sen.RonnieAltingisqueueduptoassumetheCommercechair.BynextJanuary,weexpectsignificant new roles in Senate Budget and Commerce. HD1: Democrat: StateRep.LindaLawson,RaymondL.FletcherIII.2008 Outlook:WethinkLaw-sonwinsthisprimary.Shehasfacedotherintenseprimarychallengesinthepastandprevailed.Primary Status: LeansLawson. HD3:Democrat:StateRep.CharlieBrown,BryanBullock.2008 Outlook: WethinkRep.Brownwinsthisprimary.Primary Status:LikelyBrown HD15:Republican: StateRep.DonLehe,RichardNiemeyer,LonChildress.2008 Outlook:WekeephearingthatLehehasaprimarybattleonhishandsfromNiemeyer,butwehavenoevidencehowintensethechal-
Sen. Meeks is a possible summer resignation due to health reasons. Another senator - Glenn Howard (left) was unable to attend the last legislative session. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey)
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008Page11
lengeis.Untilweheardifferently,webelievethatLehereturns.Primary Status: LeansLehe. HD24:Republican:StateRep.RichMcClain,CassCommissionerRickEller. 2008 Outlook: LocalsourcestellusthatMcClainhasarealchallengeonhishands.KeyproblemcouldbetheCarrollCountyportionofhis district. That county is facing a huge fiscal crisis and thereisspeculationthattheblamewillbedirectedtowardtheIndianaGeneralAssemblyand,byassociation,McClain. Primary Status: LeansMcClain. HD49: Republican:StateRep.JohnUlmer,WesCulver.2008 Outlook: Thislookslikeitwillbethebestchance at an incumbent legislator losing. Culver will benefit fromtheconsortiumofbusinessandsocialgroupswereported last week (Indiana Chamber, Indiana Manufactur-ers, Right to Life, Realtors) who endorsed Culver. WFRN, an ElkhartChristianradiostation,isrunningastationeditorialnexttoallUlmeradsdisputingthatheisnotpro-familyasUlmer’sadssay.Primary Status: LeansCulver. HD50:Republican: StateRep.DanLeonard,TerryAbbett,GarySnyder.2008 Outlook:WethinkLeon-ardreturns.BlogsareraisingquestionsabouttheSnydercandidacy.Primary Status:LeansLeonard. H62: Republican:JamieJoHarris,BrookTarr,DanielPatton,JudyColeman.2008Outlook:ThislookslikearacebetweenTarrandHarris.Primary Status: Tossup. HD90:Republican:StateRep.MikeMurphy,MatthewHamner. 2008 Outlook:MurphyjoinedMarionCountyProsecutorCarlBrizzionhisfetalhomicideintia-tive.Wearekeepingacloseeyeonthisrace.HamneristhebrotherofJohnsonCountyProsecutorLanceHamner.Thisisabig,well-connectedpoliticalfamilywhohavethecapabilitytopressMurphy.Murphygotarareprimaryen-dorsementfromGov.DanielsandnowBrizziishelping.Butwearen’tsureherealizedintimetheperilHamnerpres-ents.KeybattlegroundwillbePerryTownship.Hamnerhasraisedonly$10,000.Primary Status:LeansMurphy. SD12: Republican:JohnUrb,JoeGuerrero,CarlinYoder.2008Outlook:Urb,whoownsasecuritycompanyfromGoshen,istheleadingcontendertosucceedStateSen.MarvinRiegsecker,whoisretiring.YoderisaprivateMennoniteschooladministrator. Primary Status: LikelyUrb. SD20: Republican: StateSen.LukeKenley,KenGeesaman.2008 Outlook:Sen.Kenleywasachiefarchi-tectoftheagreementaschairmanoftheSenateTaxandFiscal Policy Committee (Indianapolis Star). The Noblesville Republican,whohadn’tfacedaprimarychallengeduringhis 16 years in office, said he’s been campaigning door to dooralmostsincetheendofthesessioninmid-March.“I’vegottenaprettygoodreception,”Kenleysaid.“IthinkalotofthatisbecauseIwassoheavilyinvolvedinhelp-
ingbringpropertytaxesdownonapermanentbasis.”Hisopponent,KenGeesaman,arguesthesolutionof“rais-ingtaxeswiththepromiseofataxcutlateronisatypi-cal,politicalploy”thatvotersareangryabout.“There’sageneralfeelingofdistrustfromthepeopleI’vetalkedto,”saidGeesaman,amanufacturer’srepresentative.“They’resomewherebetweenskepticalandcynicalaboutthepeopleintheGeneralAssembly.”Primary status: SafeKenley SD24:Republican:StateSen.ConnieLawson,JohnGootee.2008 Outlook:Lawsonhastreatedthechallengeseriously,gottenkeyendorsements,hadgoodpresenceatherLincolnDaysandweexpecthertoreturn.Primary Status: SafeLawson. SD30: Republican:StateSen.TeresaLubbers,KenMorgan. 2008 Outlook:“Thesearenotentitlementseats,” said Lubbers, R-Indianapolis (Indianapolis Star). “Wehavetoearnthem.”Eachofthechallengerstothefourincumbentscitedthestate’spropertytaxproblemasadrivingreasonfortheircandidacy.Taxbillslastyeardou-bledandeventripledinpartsofthestate,includingMarionCounty.Theincreasescausedwidespreadangeramonghomeowners.“Thepropertytaxeswerethetriggereventforme,becausethiswholecrisisshouldhavebeenantici-patedandprevented.There’snoexcuseforit,”saidKenMorgan,aretiredpublicaffairsconsultantwhoisrunningagainstLubbers.Lubbers,whochairstheSenateEducationandCareerDevelopmentCommittee,representstheareaoftenreferredtoasgroundzeroofthepropertytaxcrisis:Meridian-Kessler,theNorthsideneighborhoodwheretaxesskyrocketed.“IthinkithelpsIactuallyliveinthatareamyself,”shesaid.“IcanhonestlysayIknowexactlywhatyou’retalkingaboutbecausethesamethinghappenedtomeonapersonallevel.”Morgan,whoisrunningagainstLubbers,livesjustacoupleofblocksaway.Heknowstheoddsarestackedagainsthimwithanopponentwhohasnearly$50,000moreincampaigncashtospend.ButforMorgan,theraceisaboutmorethanjusttheresult.“Ifyoudo not actively fight when things are wrong, you become a part of it,” he said. “It’s a matter of identity, so I’m fight-ing.Winorlose,Ihavetodothis.”Primary Status:LikelyLubbers. SD36:Republican: StateSen.BrentWaltz,MikeBeeles.2008 Outlook:Waltzwillwinaneasyvictoryandhisopponentwillpossiblyfaceagrandjuryindictmentoverstalking. Primary Status: SAFEWALTZ SD42: Republican:JeffSponsel,MaxEllison,JeanLeising,JohnHeaton.Democrat:WarrenGoodrich.2008Outlook:Leisinglookslikethefrontrunnerhere,butSponselhasrunascrappyrace,thanksinpartofCas-sandraSponsel,hisdaughterwhoworksfortheSenateMajoritystaff.WethinkLeisingwinstheseatsheonceheldbeforesheranforCongress. Primary Status:LeansLeis-ing.v
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008Page 12
Thomas Friedman, New York Times:It is great to see that we finally have some national unity on energypolicy.Unfortunately,theunifyingideaissoridicu-lous,sounworthyofthepeopleaspiringtoleadournation,ittakesyourbreathaway.HillaryClintonhasdecidedtolineupwithJohnMcCaininpushingtosuspendthefederalex-cisetaxongasoline,18.4centsagallon,forthissummer’stravelseason.Thisisnotanenergypolicy.Thisismoneylaundering:weborrowmoneyfromChinaandshipittoSaudiArabiaandtakealittlecutforourselvesasitgoesthroughourgastanks.Whatawaytobuildourcountry.Whenthesummerisover,wewillhaveincreasedourdebttoChina,increasedourtransferofwealthtoSaudiArabiaandincreasedourcontributiontoglobalwarm-ingforourkidstoinherit.No,no,no,we’lljustgetthemoneybytaxingBigOil,saysMrs.Clinton.Evenifyoucoulddothat,whataterriblewaytospendprecioustaxdollars—burningituponthewaytothebeachratherthanoninnovation?TheMcCain-ClintongasholidayproposalisaperfectexampleofwhatenergyexpertPeterSchwartzofGlobalBusinessNetworkdescribesasthetrueAmericanen-ergypolicytoday:“Maximizedemand,minimizesupplyandbuytherestfromthepeoplewhohateusthemost.”GoodforBarackObamaforresistingthisshamefulpandering.v
Sylvia Smith,Fort Wayne Journal Ga-zette: Indianahasmorewomenthanmen,morepeoplewithoutacollegeeducationthanwithadegree.Andit’sverywhite.ThosedemographicsarefertileterritoryforHill-aryRodhamClinton.Instateafterstate,she’swonamongwomen,whitesandless-educatedvoters.ButthestatehasmoreProtestantsthanCatholicsandasubstantialnumberof people who are not religiously affiliated. And its gender splitisnotthatfaroffof50-50.Men,Protestantsandpeo-plewhodon’thaveareligionskewtowardBarackObama.Conversely,twoofObama’sstrongblocs–the18-to-24agegroupandblacks–donotmakeuphugeportionsoftheIndianapopulation.NinedaysoutfromtheMay6primary,thestateisstillconsideredadeadheat.Butthecharacter-isticsofthestate’spopulationfavorClinton.Inparticular,theracialmakeupofthestatecan’tbeoverstated.In24ofthe30statesthathaveheldprimariessofar,Clintonhaswonamajorityofwhitevotes.Obamahaswon60percentormoreoftheblackvotesinthe23stateswhereracewasnotedontheexitpolls.Clintonhasnotwonamajorityofblackvotesinanystate.SoastatelikeIndiana,where89percentoftheresidentsarewhite,certainlyfavorsClintonifHoosiervotingpatternsfollowotherstates’.Inaddition,anadvantageObamahasbecauseofIndiana’sproximitytoIllinoisislesspotentintheplaceitcoulddothemostpo-tentialgood.FolksinLakeCountyareunderstandablymorefamiliarwithObama,havingseenhimontheChicagoTV
stationstheyreceive.ButLakeCountyhasablackpopula-tionthat’sthreetimesthestateaverage.IfyouassumethatObamawouldreceivethebulkofblackvotesinIndi-anaashedidinotherstates,thenthefactthatGary-areaDemocratshavehadmoremediaexposuretoObamathanotherHoosiersisprettymuchirrelevant.There’sstilltimeforsomecataclysmiceventtoblastaparttheconventional
wisdom:ClintontakesIndiana,thoughnotbyawhoppingmargin.Butunlessthathappens,IseenoreasontoanticipateanObamavictory.v
Jerry Davich,Post-Tribune: ObamaorClinton?Thejuniorsenatororthesenior politician? The first black commander in chief or the first female president? A man who
promiseschangeorawomanwhohaschangedherprom-ises?ApolishedoratorwhomaybeforcedtoeathiswordsbytheRepublicanmachine,orascrappy,beenthere-donethat former first lady? It can be a tough call. So tell me, are youstillundecidedwhotovoteforonMay6fortheDemo-craticpresidentialnomination?Ifso,you’renotalone.I’vemetquiteafewpeopleatrecentObamaandClintonrallieswhoattendedsimplytogetabetter“feel”foreachcandi-date.They’relookingforeithersomethingintheirvoice,thesincerityinahandshake,orthesimplefactofshowingupinNorthwestIndiana,I’vebeentold.AndIunderstand.I,too,amstillonthefence,whichmaysaymoreaboutmethanthecandidates.Maybeit’saneasierdecisionfor,say, women who’ve been fighting for gender equality for decades,orblackswho’vebeenstrugglingforracialequal-ity. Now that Indiana is justifiably considered a make-or-breakstateinthiselection,adebatehereshouldhelppushundecided voters off this flip-flop fence. v
Matt Tully, Indianapolis Star:Thesymbol-ismwasimpossibletomiss.U.S.Rep.AndreCarsonstoodataNortheastsidegrocerystoreMondaymorning,hopingtodrumuppublicityeightdaysbeforetheMay6primary.Behindhim,onalargebillboard,wasthefaceofWoodyMyerswhohasdominatedthe7thDistrict’sDemocraticprimarywithhisself-fundedcampaign.Carsonisthesittingofficeholder, the man with the title, the family name and the built-inadvantagesthatcomewithincumbency.ButMyershasbeenthemorevisiblecandidate,withapowerfulTVadvertising campaign and a well-run campaign office that hasmanywonderingwhetherhe’llputanendtotheCarsondynastywhenvotersheadtothepollsnextweek.Carsonistakingitallseriously.SotherehewasMonday,talkingtothetworeporterswhohadbotheredtoshowupforhisnews conference (which, by the way, was woefully lack-ing in actual news). With Myers’ image looming overhead, CarsontalkedaboutthefederaltaxrebatechecksnowbeingsentoutinhopesofstimulatingtheU.S.economy.
istrationcouldhaveobjectedtothesaleunderCFIUS,butitdidnot,andthattheconsortiumpromisedtokeepthoseAnderson,Ind.,jobsintheU.S.onlyuntil2005.AnOct.6,2005,pressreleasefromBayhnotedthatheaskedfortheGovernmentAccount-ability Office to study “concerns over foreigntakeoversofAmericancom-panieswithnationalsecurityimplica-tions&afteranIndianacompanycalledMagnequenchclosedthankstoa1995decisionbyCFIUStoapproveaChineseconsortium’stakeover.Atthetime,Magnequenchmade85percentofthemagnetsusedtoguideU.S.smartbombs.”SaidBayh,intherelease:“Thecommitteeresponsibleforprovidingthisprotectiondoesnothaveagoodtrackrecord,asIsawmyselfwhenitallowedanIndianacompanythatmadesmartbombmagnetstobepurchasedbyaforeignbusiness.Whenitcomestoprotect-ingournationalsecurityinterests,weshouldbedoingmore,notless.”
Obama files complainton TV advertisement INDIANAPOLIS0A30-secondadrunningonHoosierTVstationsisevidencethataCalifornia-basedgroupofDemocratsbackingHillaryRodhamClintonisviolatingfederalelectionlaws,BarackObama’scampaignsaidWednesday (Fort Wayne Journal Ga-zette). The top lawyer for the Obama campaign filed a complaint with the FederalElectionCommissionaskingforaninvestigationintotheAmeri-canLeadershipProject.Thegroupisspending$700,000oncommercialsinIndiana.TheadsdonotexplicitlysaytovoteforClinton,buttheyarecriti-calofObama.RobertBauer,Obama’scampaignlawyer,accusedtheAmeri-canLeadershipProjectofviolatingcampaign finance laws. He said the grouporganizedasanindependentorganizationthatisfreeoflimitsonhowmuchmoneyeachdonorcangive.ButBauersaidtheALPoperates
asapoliticalactioncommittee,whichhasdonationlimits.Oneunion–theAmericanFederationofState,CountyandMunicipalWorkers–hasgiventhegroup$1.2million.
Caroline Kennedy appears in Boonville BOONVILLE-AlthoughshecomesfromapoliticalfAmily,CarolineKennedyisnotknownforherpolitics(Evansville Courier & Press). “People aresomewhatsurprisedsometimestoseemeouthere,andI’msome-timessurprisedmyselfbecauseIhaven’tbeenthatinvolvedinpoliti-calcampaigns,”shesaidWednesdaytoagroupofmorethan300peopleattheWarrick4-HCenterinBoon-ville.“ButIdobelievethisisthemostimportantelectionsinceIwasachild. I just turned 50, and I figured ifI’mgoingtogetoutthere,nowisthetime.”KennedywasinBoonvillewithMichelleObama,thewifeofpresidentialcandidateSen.BarackObama,D.Ill.,whoislockedinatightracewithSen.HillaryRodhamClin-tonofNewYorkinTuesday’sIndianaDemocraticprimary.Nowanauthor,KennedyistheonlysurvivingchildofformerpresidentJohnF.KennedyandthelateJacquelineKennedyOnassis.Shetoldthecrowdit’sbeenagiftforhertogrowupinAmerica,andshebelievesObamawillcontinuetobringthiscountrytogether.“ThevaluesthatIwasgivenandraisedwitharethevaluesthatIwanttopassontomygenerationandthekindofAmericathatIwanttoworkashardasIcantocreate,andthere’sonecandidatewhospeakstothatkindofpatriotism,thesenseofhopeandfairness,who’sspenthislifebringingustogether,nottearingusapart,andthatcandidateisBarackObama.”
Clinton administrationOK’d Magnequench WASHINGTON-In1995,ChinaNationalNon-FerrousMetals,headquarteredinBeijing,andSanHuanNewMaterialHigh-TechInc,fundedbytheChi-nesegovern-ment,joinedwithotherintereststopurchasetheAnderson,Ind.-basedMagnequench,whichmadeNeopowderforuseinmagnets (ABC News). The two Chi-nesecompanieswereheadedbythehusbands of the first and second daughtersofthen-ChineseleaderDengXiaoping.Oneofthosedaugh-terswasatthattime“viceministerofChina’sStateScienceandTechnologyCommission,whoseresponsibilitiesincludedacquiringmilitarytechnolo-giesbywhatevermeansnecessary,”accordingtoDavidCayJohnstonin“FreeLunch:HowtheWealthiestCorporationsEnrichThemselvesatGovernment Expense (And Stick You With the Bill).” “Complaints about the saleofMagnequenchweremadetotheU.S.governmentbecauseofthemilitaryapplicationsforthemagnets,”Johnstonreports.“Still,theClintonadministration,anardentproponentofglobalization,approvedthesale.”TheClintonadministrationrequestedthatthetechnologyandproductionremainintheU.S.“Ifwebelievethiswastrulyanationaldefenseissue,thecompanyshouldnothavebeenal-lowedtobesoldin1995,tothegroupitwassoldto,whichwasbackedbytheChinesegovernmentandChineseentrepreneurs,”saysVirginiaShingle-ton,headoftheeconomicsdepart-mentatValparaisoUniversityforthepast12years.AmemopreparedforBayhbythenon-partisanCongres-sionalResearchServiceearlierthisyearstatedthattheClintonadmin-
HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 1, 2008Page 13
