HPC Market UpdateOctober 2018

Addison Snell

Christopher Willard, Ph.D.

Laura Segervall

HPC Market for 2017

• Total worldwide HPC market (servers, storage,

software, etc.) reached $35.4 billion in 2017,

up 1.6% from 2016

• Demand-side indicators were up; supply-side

indicators were down. What happened?– Large increase in spending on power and cooling in commercial

sites (over half of market); masked by moving out-of-budget

– Cloud had a breakout year

– Storage was weak relative to server spending (GPUs)

– Some vendors did well in HPC, poorly in other enterprise servers

– The software and services categories both declined

Data cited from multiple forecast and survey reports. Inquire with

Intersect360 Research, info@intersect360.com.

HPC 2017 vs. 2016

2016 2017

$35.4 B$34.8 BOther Other

$1.1B

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services

HPC Cloud 2017 vs. 2016

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2016 2017

Other

Infrastructurehosting(IaaS,PaaS)

Applicationhosting(SaaS)

Storage

Rawcycles

($000)All cloud categories grew

Raw cycles grew only along with

overall market for compute

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Cloud Categories

HPC Forecast: Products and Services

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Other

Cloud

Networks

Software

Services

Storage

Servers

($000)

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services

Budget outlooks have improved,

especially in government sectorHPC User Budget Map: Budget Outlooks

Fundamental Drivers

• Drivers for HPC:

– There is always more science to do

– There are always harder problems to solve

– Most HPC usage is commercial

– Plus: AI!

• Drivers for HPC in Cloud:

– Suitable to variable workloads

– Availability of high-performance components

– Maturation of licensing models

– Plus: AI!

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Cloud Categories

HPC Server Classes

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

2016 2017

Supercomputers (> $1.5M)

High-End ($250K to $1.5M)

Midrange ($50K to $250K)

Entry Level (< $50K)

Highest

growth

Lowest

growth

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: HPC Server Class

Academic/Not-for-profit:

Nationalsecurity

Nationalresearchlab

Nationalagency

Stateorlocalgovernment

FinancialServicesLargeproductmanufacturing

Bio-sciences

Energy

Consumerproductmanufacturing

Retail

Chemical

Electronics

Media&Entertainment Transportation Othercommercial

HPC 2017 Revenue by Vertical

Academic,

17.7%

Government,

25.7%

Commercial,

56.6%

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Vertical Markets

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Vertical Markets

Academic/Not-for-profit:

Nationalsecurity

Nationalresearchlab

Nationalagency

Stateorlocalgovernment

FinancialServicesLargeproductmanufacturing

Bio-sciences

Energy

Consumerproductmanufacturing

Retail

Chemical

Electronics

Media&Entertainment Transportation Othercommercial

HPC 2017 Revenue by Vertical

Academic,

17.7%

Government,

25.7%

Commercial,

56.6%

HPC Server Shares, 2017

HPE

DellLenovo

IBM

Atos/Bull

Cray

Inspur

FujitsuHuawei

PenguinOthers

Grew faster

than market

Grew along

with market

Grew slower

than market

Declined

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model: HPC Server Revenue Shares

Dell EMC

NetApp

HPE

IBM

HDSDDN

Atos/Bull

PanasasFujitsu

Others

HPC Storage Shares, 2017

Grew faster

than market

Grew along

with market

Grew slower

than market

Declined

Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total

Market Model: HPC Storage Revenue Shares

Hyperscale Market in 2017

• Grew 25% Y/Y to $44B ($35B in 2016)

• Consolidating further into Tier 1

– Orgs spending over $1B/year on IT

– Nine Tier 1 companies in 2017

• Eight in 2016

• One more just missed in 2017

• Market is through its original major

expansion, now entering consolidation

phase

AI / Deep Learning / Machine Learning

• Roughly $4.5 Billion dedicated to machine learning in

2017; >90% comes from Hyperscale

• Within HPC, most advanced use cases are in finance

• We are monitoring spending patterns

– Are budgets increasing?

– What is the effect on configurations?

– On premise versus cloud

• 56% of HPC organizations are running machine learning

– Usually with same hardware as HPC

– Often with changes to configuration, particularly with GPUs

– Little effect on overall budgets compared to what was planned

– To the extent that it is done as part of an HPC environment, it is

already counted in our numbers

Report: Machine Learning’s Impact on HPC

Use of Machine Learning at HPC Sites

• In every sector, more than half of the respondents were either

running or investigating whether to implement machine learning at

their organization.

• More academic site were currently running machine learning

programs today than other sectors. We assume much of this use is

supporting research efforts.

• Very few sites (~10%) were not running nor investigating machine

learning.

HPC Market UpdateOctober 2018

Addison Snell

Christopher Willard, Ph.D.

Laura Segervall