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How to make value creating growth in a tougher environment Carnegie Danish Large Cap Seminar 2007 Tonny Thierry Andersen CFO & Member of the Executive Board 24 September 2007

How to make value creating growth in a tougher environment · How to make value creating growth in a tougher environment ... - New regime clarifies risk/return ... All conduits on

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Page 1: How to make value creating growth in a tougher environment · How to make value creating growth in a tougher environment ... - New regime clarifies risk/return ... All conduits on

How to make value creating growth in a tougher environmentCarnegie Danish Large Cap Seminar 2007

Tonny Thierry Andersen CFO & Member of the Executive Board24 September 2007

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From calm sea to rough waters?- Watch the drivers and volatility of EPS growth

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From calm sea to rough waters?- Watch the drivers and volatility of EPS growth

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Nordic banks � business mix- Danske Bank is particularly strong in retail banking

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Swedbank Nordea SHB SEB DnB NOR

Retail banking Wholesale Asset mgt Life

Source: Half-year reports

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3.4

4.9

1: In home markets.

23

36

Population1 (m)

+57%

Danske Bank With Sampo

Customers (m)+44%

Branches: 429Market share: 27%Market rank: 1Loan growth: 16%

Branches: 59Market share: 6%Market rank: 5Loan growth: 15%

Sweden

Branches: 55Market share: 6%Market rank: 4Loan growth: 22%

Branches: 95Market share: 20%Market rank: 1-2Loan growth: 15%

Branches: 61Market share: 5%Market rank: 5Loan growth: 51%

Finland:Branches: 123Market share: 16%Market rank: 3Loan growth: 9%

Estonia:Branches: 21Market share: 11%Market rank: 3Loan growth: 50%

Latvia:Branches: 4Market share: 1%Market rank: 18Loan growth: 68%

Lithuania:Branches: 16Market share: 9%Market rank: 4Loan growth: 24%

Market shares by lending.

Danske Bank With Sampo

Danske Bank at a glance in retail banking- Market leader and challenger positions

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Danske Bank has unique and multiple EPS enhancers

Diversified earnings sources

High risk-adjusted return

Positive exposure to increasing short-term rates

Cost savings in acquired banks

Tax rate reduction in Denmark and UK

Active capital management

Unique funding structure

Competitive EPS-growth outlook

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Geographic distribution of income - International diversification continues

Distribution of income �Banking activities and Mortgage Finance

Non-Danish activitiesY/Y 15% Y/Y 3% Danish activities

17% 26% 30%42%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2005 2006 ex SampoBank

H1 2007

Non-Danish activities

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Basel I: CRD/Basel II:Return on equity

Risk-adjusted performance measures

How to stay focused?

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9

10

15

20

25

Swedbank SHB SEB Nordea DnB NOR

Peer group �ROE-There are good reasons that Danske Bank is below peers

Integration costs and amortisation of intangibles

Average

Return on equity after taxH1 2007, annualised

%

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Credit losses in Nordic banks- Expected losses at Danske Bank among the very lowest

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

SHB Swedbank Nordea SEB DnB NOR

bp

Expected average credit loss for a business cycleReported credit loss ratio H1 2007

Source (expected average): Danske Bank: Fact book Q4 2006; other banks: Danske Markets.

Annualised credit loss ratio

Average

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Basel II- Will FORCE transparency to REAL value creation

ROE

ROACNo. 1

No. 2

No. 4

No. 3

CoC

CoC

�..you have to allocate the true economic capital

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Should risk and return go hand in hand?

Do you believe in the concepts of:

� Information ratio?

� Sharpe ratio?

� Beta?

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Valuation impact could be significant - Traditional multiples are INSUFFICIENT as they don�t fully include risk

0

1

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 25

Traditional P/B �ROE relation � how you normally price

New P/B �ROAC relation � how you should price

P/B

Too expensive

Too cheap

10 20 30 Return

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Risk profile ROE ROACBal I Bal II

Retail banking Low/medium Medium Medium

Mortgage finance Low Low HIGH

Capital markets Medium/high HIGH Medium

From Basel I to Basel II- New regime clarifies risk/return relation

Note: ROAC = Return on allocated capital, including Pillar I and Pillar II.

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Trading income growth and volatility- Danske has by far the lowest volatility

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07

STDEV CAGRDanske Bank 16 45%SEB 32 78%DnB NOR 32 59%Nordea 47 122%Swedbank 56 28%HBK 102 204%

Quarterly trading income at Nordic banks(Q1 2005 = index 100)

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Unique funding structure- Dominated by L-T funding outside wholesale market

No liquidity risk

No interest risk

No default ever

AAA-rated bonds

80% max. LTV at origination

53% avg. LTV Q2 2007

Third-most-liquid bond market world-wide

26%

27%

23%

20%

4%

Deposits

Issued bonds & subordinated debt

Danish Mortgages (match funded)

Shareholders� equity

Credit institutions, central banks

and repos

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DKr bn % of totalassets

Conduits (ABCP, SIV) 42 1.4

Polonius (own sponsored ABCP) 19 0.6

Total 61 2.0

Lines drawn (18/9-07) 14 0.5

of which Polonius 7 0.3

Polonius is fully consolidated in Danske Bank�s group account.

Other exposures

Pipeline, leveraged finance 0

Committed lines to conduits etc- below average for European Banks

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Conduits Polonius% %

AAA *) 76% 97%

AA 24% 1%

A 0% 2%

All conduits on our balance sheet are subject to impairment test ,but no charges have been made.

Not subject to a mark-to-marked valuation

Conduits: Sub-prime loans can be elements of several conduits, but only Senior trances rated as described

Polonius: The portfolio holds no Sub-prime RMBS bonds. None of the bonds held are on negative watch by the Rating agencies.

Only 1.7% of the portfolio are CDO�s backed by mezzanine ABS bonds. These are historical positions (pre April 2002) and have limited exposure to the US Residential loan market.

*) Or equivalent

Asset quality

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Geographical / Asset type distribution

Polonius%

US [no sub-prime loans] 43%UK 23%Other Europe 33%Other 0%

CLO 17%CDO 7%CDO (with CDS protection from AA-rated bank) 16%Residential mortgages 24%Commercial mortgages 22%Other 14%

Fully consolidated in Danske Bank Groups balance sheet

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Liquidity and funding of Danske Bank

Liquidity policy:

Positive liquidity for 12 months (Moody�s scenario)Positive liquidity for next 3 weeks without management intervention at any time including

13% of liquidity facilities drawn at any time

Liquidity position:

No breach of liquidity policy in 2007

Funding 2007:

Significant proportion of 2007 funding need was completed in H1 2007.

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26%

27%

23%

4%2%

12%

6%

Wholesale funding- dominated by medium and long-term funding instruments

Up to 2 years

Subordinated & hybrid

2 years and longer

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European Banks- committed lines relative to funding

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Sac

hsen IK

B

Ned

bank

AB

N A

mro

Hyp

o

Lloy

ds

Bay

eris

che

Dre

sdne

r

Soc

Gen

Wes

t LB

Fort

is

HB

OS

Bay

eris

che

Rab

o

Deu

tsch

e

Med

ian

Bar

clay

s

Dan

ske

RB

S

Inve

stec

ING

CS

FB

HS

H

Com

mer

zban

k

BN

P

San

tand

er

San

Pao

lo

Nor

dea

CIC

SEB

%

Source: Fitch Rating, except Danske: Own calculations

Max committed lines as percent of

funding (Deposits+senior+subordinated debt)

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You can compare our business model to VW- Same engine but different brands

R&D Sales & Marketing Finance Service & Maintenance

�It is the goal of the Group to offer attractive, safe and environmentally sound vehicles which are competitive and which set world standards in their respective classes on an increasingly tough market. �

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You can compare our business model to VW- Same engine but different brands

R&D Sales & Marketing Finance Service & Maintenance

�It is the goal of the Group to offer attractive, safe and environmentally sound vehicles which are competitive and which set world standards in their respective classes on an increasingly tough market. �

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Our proprietary IT platform brings scalability and commercial focus

Legacy /transaction trap

Efficient infrastructure & applications

Under-investmentdriving inefficiency

Median (15.2%)

Median (32.6%)

Danske Bank 42.3%/15.1%

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

18 23 28 33 38 43

�Change-the-bank� cost / IT cost

IT c

ost /

ope

rati

ng

cost

Relative IT expenses vs. change the bank costs

Danske Bankhas the highest

�change the bank�spending

Source: Datamonitor.

%

%

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16% 16%

20%

14%

2004 2005 2006 H1 2007

Sweden: J curve is now kicking in- Organic growth begins to pay off after branch expansion

ROE before credit losses and tax- improving

Sweden

61.7

57.4

54.2

61.9

2004 2005 2006 H1 2007

Cost/income ratio- improving

Branches: 59Market share: 6%Market rank: 5Loan growth: 15%

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50

75

100

125

150

Swedbank Nordea HBK SEB

Danske Bank Sweden vs. peers- Improvement clearly outpacing peers

Profit before credit losses in Swedish retail banking

(H1 2006 = 100)

%

Sverige

2006 H1 2007 H1

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11%

17%

13%

21%

2004 2005 2006 H1 2007

75.4

64.5

72.5

61.2

2004 2005 2006 H1 2007

Norway: J curve is now kicking in - Organic growth begins to pay off after branch expansion

ROE before credit losses and tax- improving

Cost/income ratio- improving

Branches: 55Market share: 6%Market rank: 4Loan growth: 22%

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50

75

100

125

150

DnB NOR Nordea HBK

Fokus Bank vs. peers- Improvement clearly outpacing peers

Profit before credit losses in Norwegian retail banking

(H1 2006 = 100)

%

2006 H1 2007 H1

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3%0%

38%

-2%

2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007ex total

integrationcosts

96.799.9

62.3

102.6

2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007ex total

integrationcosts

Northern Ireland- Completion of integration will boost return as of 2008

ROE before credit losses and tax- from 0% to 38% in a rush

Cost/income ratio- inflated by integration costs

Branches: 95Market share: 20%Market rank: 1-2Loan growth: 15%

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9%

18%

-8%

1%

2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007 extotal

integrationcosts

113.5

82.186.5

63.1

2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007ex total

integrationcosts

Republic of Ireland- Completion of integration will boost return as of 2008

ROE before credit losses and tax- low, but double-digit in 2008

Cost/income ratio- inflated by integration costs

Branches: 61Market share: 5%Market rank: 5Loan growth: 51%

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38%

41%

44%44%

41%

2004 2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007ex total

integrationcosts

59.1

50.6

51.5

53.5

52.4

2004 2006 H1 2007ex total

integrationcosts

Don�t forget Denmark- The cash generator par excellence

ROE before credit losses- stable high level

Cost/income ratio- improving

Branches: 429Market share: 27%Market rank: 1Loan growth: 16%

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Expenses 2007 �2010- Integration costs fade away � low risk driver for EPS growth

20

22

24

26

2007 2008 2009 2010

Underlying expenses incl. synergies 1 month Sampo Integration costs Amortisation

-12%

DKr

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Expenses 2007 �2010- Integration costs fade away � low risk driver for EPS-growth

20

22

24

26

2007 2008 2009 2010

Adding 0-5% annual inflation

Underlying expenses incl. synergies 1 month Sampo Integration costs Amortisation

DKr

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EPS growth has peaked across Europe- One could say that Nordic banks have seen better days ��

0

10

20

30

40

50

Nordic France UK Spain Germany CEE Italy

EPS growth 2006-08 EPS growth 2004-06Source: Morgan Stanley.

% EPS growth �Selected European countries

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Danske Bank�s EPS trend- After a flat 2007, our investments are about to pay off

15

20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Reported EPS

Consensus

DKr

Note: Consensus 2007-09 are not part of Danske Bank�s guidance. Consensus for 2007 is consistent with our latest official guidance for 2007.

EPS

CAGR: 9%

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www.danskebank.com/ir