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How to make value creating growth in a tougher environmentCarnegie Danish Large Cap Seminar 2007
Tonny Thierry Andersen CFO & Member of the Executive Board24 September 2007
2
From calm sea to rough waters?- Watch the drivers and volatility of EPS growth
3
From calm sea to rough waters?- Watch the drivers and volatility of EPS growth
4
Nordic banks � business mix- Danske Bank is particularly strong in retail banking
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Swedbank Nordea SHB SEB DnB NOR
Retail banking Wholesale Asset mgt Life
Source: Half-year reports
5
3.4
4.9
1: In home markets.
23
36
Population1 (m)
+57%
Danske Bank With Sampo
Customers (m)+44%
Branches: 429Market share: 27%Market rank: 1Loan growth: 16%
Branches: 59Market share: 6%Market rank: 5Loan growth: 15%
Sweden
Branches: 55Market share: 6%Market rank: 4Loan growth: 22%
Branches: 95Market share: 20%Market rank: 1-2Loan growth: 15%
Branches: 61Market share: 5%Market rank: 5Loan growth: 51%
Finland:Branches: 123Market share: 16%Market rank: 3Loan growth: 9%
Estonia:Branches: 21Market share: 11%Market rank: 3Loan growth: 50%
Latvia:Branches: 4Market share: 1%Market rank: 18Loan growth: 68%
Lithuania:Branches: 16Market share: 9%Market rank: 4Loan growth: 24%
Market shares by lending.
Danske Bank With Sampo
Danske Bank at a glance in retail banking- Market leader and challenger positions
6
Danske Bank has unique and multiple EPS enhancers
Diversified earnings sources
High risk-adjusted return
Positive exposure to increasing short-term rates
Cost savings in acquired banks
Tax rate reduction in Denmark and UK
Active capital management
Unique funding structure
Competitive EPS-growth outlook
7
Geographic distribution of income - International diversification continues
Distribution of income �Banking activities and Mortgage Finance
Non-Danish activitiesY/Y 15% Y/Y 3% Danish activities
17% 26% 30%42%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2005 2006 ex SampoBank
H1 2007
Non-Danish activities
8
Basel I: CRD/Basel II:Return on equity
Risk-adjusted performance measures
How to stay focused?
9
10
15
20
25
Swedbank SHB SEB Nordea DnB NOR
Peer group �ROE-There are good reasons that Danske Bank is below peers
Integration costs and amortisation of intangibles
Average
Return on equity after taxH1 2007, annualised
%
10
Credit losses in Nordic banks- Expected losses at Danske Bank among the very lowest
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
SHB Swedbank Nordea SEB DnB NOR
bp
Expected average credit loss for a business cycleReported credit loss ratio H1 2007
Source (expected average): Danske Bank: Fact book Q4 2006; other banks: Danske Markets.
Annualised credit loss ratio
Average
11
Basel II- Will FORCE transparency to REAL value creation
ROE
ROACNo. 1
No. 2
No. 4
No. 3
CoC
CoC
�..you have to allocate the true economic capital
12
Should risk and return go hand in hand?
Do you believe in the concepts of:
� Information ratio?
� Sharpe ratio?
� Beta?
13
Valuation impact could be significant - Traditional multiples are INSUFFICIENT as they don�t fully include risk
0
1
2
3
0 5 10 15 20 25
Traditional P/B �ROE relation � how you normally price
New P/B �ROAC relation � how you should price
P/B
Too expensive
Too cheap
10 20 30 Return
14
Risk profile ROE ROACBal I Bal II
Retail banking Low/medium Medium Medium
Mortgage finance Low Low HIGH
Capital markets Medium/high HIGH Medium
From Basel I to Basel II- New regime clarifies risk/return relation
Note: ROAC = Return on allocated capital, including Pillar I and Pillar II.
15
Trading income growth and volatility- Danske has by far the lowest volatility
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07
STDEV CAGRDanske Bank 16 45%SEB 32 78%DnB NOR 32 59%Nordea 47 122%Swedbank 56 28%HBK 102 204%
Quarterly trading income at Nordic banks(Q1 2005 = index 100)
16
Unique funding structure- Dominated by L-T funding outside wholesale market
No liquidity risk
No interest risk
No default ever
AAA-rated bonds
80% max. LTV at origination
53% avg. LTV Q2 2007
Third-most-liquid bond market world-wide
26%
27%
23%
20%
4%
Deposits
Issued bonds & subordinated debt
Danish Mortgages (match funded)
Shareholders� equity
Credit institutions, central banks
and repos
17
DKr bn % of totalassets
Conduits (ABCP, SIV) 42 1.4
Polonius (own sponsored ABCP) 19 0.6
Total 61 2.0
Lines drawn (18/9-07) 14 0.5
of which Polonius 7 0.3
Polonius is fully consolidated in Danske Bank�s group account.
Other exposures
Pipeline, leveraged finance 0
Committed lines to conduits etc- below average for European Banks
18
Conduits Polonius% %
AAA *) 76% 97%
AA 24% 1%
A 0% 2%
All conduits on our balance sheet are subject to impairment test ,but no charges have been made.
Not subject to a mark-to-marked valuation
Conduits: Sub-prime loans can be elements of several conduits, but only Senior trances rated as described
Polonius: The portfolio holds no Sub-prime RMBS bonds. None of the bonds held are on negative watch by the Rating agencies.
Only 1.7% of the portfolio are CDO�s backed by mezzanine ABS bonds. These are historical positions (pre April 2002) and have limited exposure to the US Residential loan market.
*) Or equivalent
Asset quality
19
Geographical / Asset type distribution
Polonius%
US [no sub-prime loans] 43%UK 23%Other Europe 33%Other 0%
CLO 17%CDO 7%CDO (with CDS protection from AA-rated bank) 16%Residential mortgages 24%Commercial mortgages 22%Other 14%
Fully consolidated in Danske Bank Groups balance sheet
20
Liquidity and funding of Danske Bank
Liquidity policy:
Positive liquidity for 12 months (Moody�s scenario)Positive liquidity for next 3 weeks without management intervention at any time including
13% of liquidity facilities drawn at any time
Liquidity position:
No breach of liquidity policy in 2007
Funding 2007:
Significant proportion of 2007 funding need was completed in H1 2007.
21
26%
27%
23%
4%2%
12%
6%
Wholesale funding- dominated by medium and long-term funding instruments
Up to 2 years
Subordinated & hybrid
2 years and longer
22
European Banks- committed lines relative to funding
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sac
hsen IK
B
Ned
bank
AB
N A
mro
Hyp
o
Lloy
ds
Bay
eris
che
Dre
sdne
r
Soc
Gen
Wes
t LB
Fort
is
HB
OS
Bay
eris
che
Rab
o
Deu
tsch
e
Med
ian
Bar
clay
s
Dan
ske
RB
S
Inve
stec
ING
CS
FB
HS
H
Com
mer
zban
k
BN
P
San
tand
er
San
Pao
lo
Nor
dea
CIC
SEB
%
Source: Fitch Rating, except Danske: Own calculations
Max committed lines as percent of
funding (Deposits+senior+subordinated debt)
23
You can compare our business model to VW- Same engine but different brands
R&D Sales & Marketing Finance Service & Maintenance
�It is the goal of the Group to offer attractive, safe and environmentally sound vehicles which are competitive and which set world standards in their respective classes on an increasingly tough market. �
24
You can compare our business model to VW- Same engine but different brands
R&D Sales & Marketing Finance Service & Maintenance
�It is the goal of the Group to offer attractive, safe and environmentally sound vehicles which are competitive and which set world standards in their respective classes on an increasingly tough market. �
25
Our proprietary IT platform brings scalability and commercial focus
Legacy /transaction trap
Efficient infrastructure & applications
Under-investmentdriving inefficiency
Median (15.2%)
Median (32.6%)
Danske Bank 42.3%/15.1%
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
18 23 28 33 38 43
�Change-the-bank� cost / IT cost
IT c
ost /
ope
rati
ng
cost
Relative IT expenses vs. change the bank costs
Danske Bankhas the highest
�change the bank�spending
Source: Datamonitor.
%
%
26
16% 16%
20%
14%
2004 2005 2006 H1 2007
Sweden: J curve is now kicking in- Organic growth begins to pay off after branch expansion
ROE before credit losses and tax- improving
Sweden
61.7
57.4
54.2
61.9
2004 2005 2006 H1 2007
Cost/income ratio- improving
Branches: 59Market share: 6%Market rank: 5Loan growth: 15%
27
50
75
100
125
150
Swedbank Nordea HBK SEB
Danske Bank Sweden vs. peers- Improvement clearly outpacing peers
Profit before credit losses in Swedish retail banking
(H1 2006 = 100)
%
Sverige
2006 H1 2007 H1
28
11%
17%
13%
21%
2004 2005 2006 H1 2007
75.4
64.5
72.5
61.2
2004 2005 2006 H1 2007
Norway: J curve is now kicking in - Organic growth begins to pay off after branch expansion
ROE before credit losses and tax- improving
Cost/income ratio- improving
Branches: 55Market share: 6%Market rank: 4Loan growth: 22%
29
50
75
100
125
150
DnB NOR Nordea HBK
Fokus Bank vs. peers- Improvement clearly outpacing peers
Profit before credit losses in Norwegian retail banking
(H1 2006 = 100)
%
2006 H1 2007 H1
30
3%0%
38%
-2%
2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007ex total
integrationcosts
96.799.9
62.3
102.6
2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007ex total
integrationcosts
Northern Ireland- Completion of integration will boost return as of 2008
ROE before credit losses and tax- from 0% to 38% in a rush
Cost/income ratio- inflated by integration costs
Branches: 95Market share: 20%Market rank: 1-2Loan growth: 15%
31
9%
18%
-8%
1%
2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007 extotal
integrationcosts
113.5
82.186.5
63.1
2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007ex total
integrationcosts
Republic of Ireland- Completion of integration will boost return as of 2008
ROE before credit losses and tax- low, but double-digit in 2008
Cost/income ratio- inflated by integration costs
Branches: 61Market share: 5%Market rank: 5Loan growth: 51%
32
38%
41%
44%44%
41%
2004 2005 2006 H1 2007 H1 2007ex total
integrationcosts
59.1
50.6
51.5
53.5
52.4
2004 2006 H1 2007ex total
integrationcosts
Don�t forget Denmark- The cash generator par excellence
ROE before credit losses- stable high level
Cost/income ratio- improving
Branches: 429Market share: 27%Market rank: 1Loan growth: 16%
33
Expenses 2007 �2010- Integration costs fade away � low risk driver for EPS growth
20
22
24
26
2007 2008 2009 2010
Underlying expenses incl. synergies 1 month Sampo Integration costs Amortisation
-12%
DKr
34
Expenses 2007 �2010- Integration costs fade away � low risk driver for EPS-growth
20
22
24
26
2007 2008 2009 2010
Adding 0-5% annual inflation
Underlying expenses incl. synergies 1 month Sampo Integration costs Amortisation
DKr
35
EPS growth has peaked across Europe- One could say that Nordic banks have seen better days ��
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nordic France UK Spain Germany CEE Italy
EPS growth 2006-08 EPS growth 2004-06Source: Morgan Stanley.
% EPS growth �Selected European countries
36
Danske Bank�s EPS trend- After a flat 2007, our investments are about to pay off
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Reported EPS
Consensus
DKr
Note: Consensus 2007-09 are not part of Danske Bank�s guidance. Consensus for 2007 is consistent with our latest official guidance for 2007.
EPS
CAGR: 9%
37
www.danskebank.com/ir