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How to Develop National Low-Carbon Scenarios with AIM/CGE Basic Country Model
Feb. 17th, 2012 Michiko Namazu
Urban and Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University
2012 AIM International Workshop
1
Background and Outline of study
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• Target regions: Asian 15 regions • Model : AIM/CGE Basic Country model • Reflecting scenarios and information from
national level
The target of this study Provide a platform where national and international researchers are able to develop scenarios toward Low Carbon Society interactively.
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction = global challenge • World target: 50% reduction of GHG emissions by 2050 • Individual targets and actions for every countries, especially Asian
countries with rapid economic growth • feasibility of the targets and actions • economic effects from the targets and actions
Region Detail China China India India Indonesia Indonesia Japan Japan Korea Korea Malaysia Malaysia Taiwan Taiwan Thailand Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Singapore Singapore Philippines Philippines Other East Asia North Korea, Mongolia Other South Asia
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal
Other South East Asia
Brunei Darussalam, Timor-Leste, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
Oceania Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Kiribati, Nauru, Tonga, Tuvalu, Samoa, FS Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Palau
AIM/CGE Basic Country Model
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• CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model • Economic model • Fundamental idea: supply = demand, balanced by price mechanism • Maximization problem:
household = utility maximization, enterprise = profit maximization • Whole social structure is described with consistence
• AIM/CGE Basic Country Model • A model developed by Dr. Fujimori based on Standard CGE model (IFPRI) • Recursive dynamic (one year step), and one region (country) model • 36 industrial sectors, and 23 commodities
• Detailed power generation sectors: Coal fire, Gas fire, Oil fire, Hydro, Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Biomass
• Base year = 2005, Social accounting matrix + energy balance table • GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O), GHG constraint • Reduction measures: Carbon tax, CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology,
Renewable energy, Emission trading etc…
AIM/CGE Basic Country Model
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value added
Inter-mediate
input
activities
products
goods goods goods
products
Total domestic products
domestic supply
export rest of
the world
trade cost
domestic demand import
composed commodity
invest/ saving
household expenditure
government expenditure
institution household Government
household income
government income
institution income
element expenditure
income rest of
the world
transfer
tax
tax
tax tax tax
tax tax
tax
Total tax
Leo
CES CE
S
Leo energy goods resource
GHG Emissions Reduction Targets
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• World GHG Reduction Target • 50% reduction of GHG emission in 2050 from 1990 levels
• How to distribute the target? (Burden sharing) • Emissions per capita is equal all over the world • Emissions per GDP is equal all over the world • And so on..
• Some countries have national reduction targets • E.g.) Japan: 25% reduction by 2020 from 1990 levels…
might be changed because of the earthquake
• Emissions per capita is equal all over the world in 2050 • Regions with individual target in 2020 will achieve their targets • All regions start reducing emissions from 2020 toward world
halving target
In this study..
GHG constraint
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China ▲ 66 Indonesia ▲ 60 India 60 Japan ▲ 84 Korea ▲ 82 Malaysia ▲ 70 Philippines 89 Singapore ▲ 71 Thailand ▲ 64 Vietnam ▲ 4 Tiwan ▲ 85 Other East Asia ▲ 52 Oceania 20 Other South Asia
127
Other South East Asia
▲ 72
Total GHG Emissions Change (2050/2005, %)
GHG emission reduction target (GHG emissions per capita)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHG
em
issio
ns (t
on o
f CO
2 eq
u.)
Taiwan
Malaysia
Korea
Japan
Singapore
Other SouthEast AsiaIndonesia
Thailand
China
Other East Asia
Oceania
Vietnam
Philippines
India
Other SouthAsia
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How to Develop National Low-Carbon Scenarios with AIM/CGE Basic Country Model
Trial Application for India and China
India <situation>
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• India’s GHG emissions reduction targets: • 20-25% reduction of CO2 Intensity (CO2/GDP) in 2020 from 2005 levels • Calculated GHG emissions reduction target in 2050: 60% increase from
2005 levels • Socio-economic projections have a wide range among scenarios
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP
(Bil.
200
5USD
)
2050 GDP scenario
India <scenario setting>
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SLCS scenario SSTAG scenario Reference scenario
population UN population prospect 2010
Target GDP Modest GDP growth (6.5%/yr)
Lower GDP growth (5.5%/yr)
Rapid GDP growth (7-8%/yr)
Target GDP share (in 2050)
Primary: 10%, Secondary: 20%, Tertiary: 70% Primary: 5%, Secondary: 45%, Tertiary: 55%
GHG reduction target
2020 target: reduction of GHG intensity by 23% from 2005 levels 2050 target: reduction of GHG emission by 50% from 1990 levels
GHG reduction measure
CCS technology is available from 2020. Renewable energy cost decrease.
Energy Autonomous Energy Efficiency Improvement; Coal 3%/year, Oil 2%/year, Gas 1%/year, Electricity 1%/year
*More detailed information of this setting is available in individual meeting
India <results>
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SLCS: -60%
SSTAG: -41%
Carbon Price in 2050 (2005USD/ton of CO2 eq.)
GDP Loss in 2050 (%)
SLCS 91 2.12 SSTAG 67 1.60
REF 164 2.73 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐵𝐵,2050 − 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐶𝐶,2050
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐵𝐵,2050× 100
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHG
emiss
ions
(Mto
n of
CO
2 eq
u.)
BaU_REF
BaU_SLCS
BaU_SSTAG
CM_REF
CM_SLCS
CM_SSTAG
REF: -71%
BaU: without GHG reduction targets CM: With GHG reduction targets
GHG emissions
China <situation>
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• China’s GHG emissions reduction targets: • 40-45% reduction of Intensity (CO2 emissions/GDP) in 2020 from 2005 levels • Calculated GHG emissions reduction target in 2050: 66% reduction from
2005 levels • A number of socio-economic scenarios from international and domestic
organizations
0.00E+00
5.00E+03
1.00E+04
1.50E+04
2.00E+04
2.50E+04
3.00E+04
3.50E+04
4.00E+04
4.50E+04
5.00E+04
mil.
200
5USD
2050 GDP scenario
Yellow: scenarios from domestic institutions, Blue: scenarios from international institutions
China <scenario setting>
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SLCS scenario SSTAG scenario REF scenario
Population UN population prospects 2010
Total GDP 6.3%/year 5.0% /year 6.7%/year
GDP structure Similar to current developed country. Tertiary industry is the main industry.
While tertiary industry increases the share, still secondary industry plays an important role.
Similar to current developed country. Tertiary industry is the main industry.
Energy Coal: 4%/year, Oil: 3%/year, Gas: 2%/year, Electricity: 3%/year
Coal: 2%/year, Oil: 1%/year, Gas: 0%/year, Electricity: 1%/year
Coal: 5%/year, Oil: 4%/year, Gas: 1%/year, Electricity: 5%/year
Renewable Cost Decrease
Wind, photovoltaic, geothermal, biomass power cost decrease
GHG constraint
43% reduction of GHG intensity from 2005 levels by 2020 66% reduction of GHG emissions from 2005 levels by 2050
*More detailed information of this setting is available in individual meeting
China <LCS action>
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LCS action Transport Increase of public transport share, transport energy
efficiency improvement, transport efficiency improvement Renewable Power
Additional cost decrease of renewable energy (1.1% additional decrease of solar photovoltaic cost, 0.7% additional decrease of solar photovoltaic cost)
Energy Intensive Industry
Less output of energy intensive products resulted from dematerialization, efficiency improvement (Iron and steel, cement, paper and pulp etc..)
Energy Additional Energy Efficiency Improvement (1%/year additional energy efficiency improvement for Coal, Oil, Gas, Electricity)
CCS CCS technology is available from 2020
*More detailed information of this setting is available in individual meeting
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHG
emiss
ions
(ton
of C
O2
eq.)
BaU_SLCS
BaU_SSTAG
BaU_REF
CM_REF
CM_SLCS
CM_SSTAG
China <results>
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SLCS: -90%
SSTAG: -84% REF:
-82%
SLCS SSTAG REF without
LCS action with LCS
action without
LCS action with LCS
action without
LCS action with LCS
action
Carbon Price in 2050 (2005USD/ton of CO2 eq.) 1053 628 535 297 745 466
GDP Loss (%) in 2050 17.87 3.30 8.74 -1.10 10.46 2.01
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
GHG
emiss
ions
(ton
… BaU_SLCS
BaU_SSTAG
BaU_REF
CM_REF
CM_SLCS
CM_SSTAG
GHG emissions
China <GHG reduction measure>
15 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Mt C
O2-
eq/y
ear
CM_REF
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Mt C
O2-
eq/y
ear
CM_SLCS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Mt C
O2-
eq/y
ear
CM_SSTAG
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Mt C
O2-
eq/y
ear
CM_SLCSNon-energy GHGLanduseEnduse_activity_levelEnduse_structureEnduse_efficiencyEnduse_fuel_switchElectricity_demandPower_efficiencyRenewableNuclearCCSEmission
For further study
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• This study is underway • Application to China, India and Japan has started, and
application to the other regions will coming soon • We would like to get some comments and advice from
professionals in target countries/regions
The target of this study Provide a platform where national and international researchers are able to develop scenarios toward Low Carbon Society interactively.
Thank you for your attention!
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If you have any questions, please contact me Michiko Namazu
E-mail: [email protected] [email protected]
